> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # 2027 Team Previews: Detroit Tigers - URL: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/2027-team-previews-detroit-tigers/ - Published: 2026-11-11T18:49:22.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-11T18:49:22.000Z - Author: Jon Anderson - Tags: 2027 Team Previews [**Follow along with all team previews here**](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/tag/2027-team-previews/) It didn't go super well for the Tigers, as they finished 76-86 in the walk year for ace **Tarik Skubal**. They didn't put themselves in position to hold onto him, so the trade happened, and the Tigers finished fourth in the division. The bright side, if there is one, is rookie **Kevin McGonigle** ran away with the Rookie of the Year award, and they got **Max Clark** to the bigs to get him some of that much-needed experience. I believe they'll go to work in free agency or trades. They are usually a team to make a big acquisition or two, and there's a big hole left in the rotation now. But for now, it doesn't look like a mighty competitive team: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/tigersroster.png) The top half of the lineup is competitive, or at least could be with a repeat from McGonigle and some development from Clark. They have stud power hitter **Riley Greene** coming off of a down year. And they have some extra thump with Dingler and Torkelson there in the middle of the order. Plus a trio of young(ish) pitchers in Melton, Jobe, and Ryan. It's not a horrible roster by my measure, so they might consider themselves just a couple of big signings away from competing in the not-so-impressive AL Central. --- # Hitters ### Riley Greene > Age: **26** > Pos: **OF** Pretty underwhelming season for Greene. Just 21 bombs. A guy like this really shouldn't be falling this far short of 30 homers. He blasted 36 in 2025 on a 17.1% Brl% and an .806 OPS. His OPS rose to .844 in 2026 while he hit .280\. By the slash line, it was his best season. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-142.png) But for fantasy leagues, 21 bombs is replaceable. The very good news is that his Brl% was still elite at 14.8%. His K% actually came down to a career-best 26.5%. He hits the ball really hard (106.9 EV90 on fly balls) and gets it into the air routinely (36% GB%). I don't see him ever falling short of 25 bombs again while he's keeping this up. And age isn't a consideration; he's sort of just now entering his prime years. The 36% HR/Brl was the problem. He hit too many of them to center field. His air pull rate was fine at 16%, but a long ways from the elite in the league. That seems to me to be "one adjustment away" from hitting 30+ bombs again. He was featured in this post: [Power Swings: 2027 Home Run BreakoutsEvery passing year puts more Statcast data online for the masses. I’ve been slow to get on board with the new stuff. Which you wouldn’t think I would be, right? This is MLB DATA WAREHOUSE. “Data” is in the freaking title. Maybe I’m just lazy, maybe I’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-267ef232-0c7e-4068-bcc0-86ee628fc31b.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-10-26-at-10.34.16---AM-3142a176-8651-4749-95f4-5b508b6bb051.png)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/power-swings-2027-home-run-breakouts/) So you can check that out for more about his power swing. It all just screams to me that he's going to jump right back up to a lofty home run total. The speed isn't a part of his game, so you have to get that from other sources if you're rostering him. Just nine steals the last three years. But that's the only missing tool he has. His BABIPs are insane: - 2024: .329 - 2025: .323 - 2026: .361 So he's always a .320+ guy. He probably won't repeat a .360, so we're heading back down 15-20 points on his batting average (.262 xBA). With a still pretty high K% and a lot of fly balls, .280 isn't a proper expectation. But the good news is that his BABIP is totally believable with his line drive rate and high EVs. I think he'll be right around that .260 mark. We're left with a guy who won't be super expensive that should help fantasy teams a lot in HR + RBI with a moderate help in batting average and a pretty high OBP. That OBP was .370 last year, a huge number. His BB% spiked to 12% as he got more patient, and pitchers didn't really want to risk him going yard without great bats behind him. So he was a much different hitter plate-discipline-wise in 2026\. Most of it was for the good. His 81% Zone Contact% tells me he can keep the K% around 25-28%, low enough to get him to all of those doubles and homers. I think his BB% naturally comes down a bit to around 9-10%. That probably puts him around a .330 OBP. But there's a lot to like. You're getting a potential 35-homer, 100-RBI bat with a .260 batting average expectation, and that's pretty valuable around where he'll go in drafts (ADP 92 right now). **Projection** *137 G, 75 R, 24 HR, 83 RBI, 3 SB, .263/.346/.465* I believe that to be too low on the HR front. But I get it. It's only a 137-game projection, so add a couple more if you think he'll play 150+ games. The guy's raw power is just awesome, and I'm a believer he can be among the league leaders at some point. **Rank** He's around Carson Benge and Henry Bolte in the OF ranks. They aren't very similar players, but that's about the spot I'd be looking to draft him. It's roster build specific, because he's pretty much a HR+RBI guy without many steals. So if you have Pete Alonso or somebody already on your team, you might want to opt for one of the more steals-heavy outfielders. But I love Riley Greene for 2027 drafts. --- ### Kevin McGonigle > Age: 22 > Pos: 3B/SS The ROY! What a debut it was for McGonigle. We all knew he was big-league ready. He had some of the best plate discipline marks you'll ever see in the marks, and he took that right to the Majors with a 13.4% BB% and a 14.1% K%. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-143.png) He missed just six games and hit .278/.376/.430 with 18 homers and 12 steals, scoring 97 runs on a team that didn't do super well offensively. But let's look at the skill-by-skill breakdown to see how much he can build off of this rookie season. **Power** 7.3% Brl%, 102.5 EV90, 103 EV90 on fly balls. He pulled it a good bit and strikes out so rarely that he gets some extra homers just by having so many balls put into play. But this was always the question. How many homers could he hit in the Majors without great bat speed with his smaller frame? 18 is a pretty good mark to start with. I'm not sure if there's ever 30+ homer upside for the guy, but the 89% Zone Contact% and 36% FB% give him a lot of balls in play to generate homers with. Maybe he's limited to around 24 homers? But that would be a pretty nice total with the elite slash line. He's a points-league dream. **Speed** Only a dozen steals despite a .376 OBP. His attempt rate was just 7%. That was cut in half from what he had done in the minors in 2025 (15%). So there's certainly room for growth there. He has 72nd-percentile sprint speed, so he can certainly run. It's just a will thing. Will he get up into the teens in attempt rate again? His Success% was just 75%, so that's not a great sign. We never thought he was an easy 25-steal guy; that's not who he is. But with this OBP and the speed he has, there's plenty of time for him to get a bit better at that. But the Tigers aren't a steals-heavy org, so maybe he'll be stuck at around 10-15 steals a year. **Plate Discipline** This is why you draft a guy like this. Solid production, consistent AVG and OBP. The HR + SB are a bit of a cherry on top. His eye is elite, his contact rate is elite; we should be expecting an easy .270 batting average with a very high OBP every year. **Final Thoughts** It's all about price, of course. He's a third-round pick right now, and he's projecting for just 21 homers and 13 steals. So he's not going to be a 40 HR+SB guy in all likelihood, which takes away some of the upside. But what you lack in upside, you make up for with solidity. And who knows, maybe there's a new level of power and speed he can find. He's only 22 years old, after all. **Rank** I like that he has 3B eligibility as well. That's where you'll probably want to use him since that position is so much shallower than SS. At third base, he's #3 via the Steamer projections for standard roto (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG). It's a weak position, but he does beat Sal Stewart by a dollar, making up for the lack of homers with a bunch of runs and a high batting average. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-144.png) At shortstop, I was comparing him with Zach Neto. He outdoes Neto in projection even in standard roto, because he might hit 50 points higher than Neto in batting average. --- ### Dillon Dingler > Age: **28** > Pos: **C** Dingler was crushing in the first half, but he ended the year poorly ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-145.png) There was a hit by pitch in July that might have explained some of that, and his elbow wasn't healthy either as he had surgery right after the season to get that cleaned up. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-146.png) He might not be 100% to start the season. The priority with catchers seems to be about their defense. So that might be more of a focus in his rehab, and the hitting stats could suffer a bit. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-147.png) He hit 27 homers, a large number from a catcher, and he drove in 91 to be among the position leaders there. But the OPS fell to .749 with that poor end to the season; he stole zero bases and hit just .243 with a .302 OBP. **Power** I'm not really seeing 27 homers in the raw power numbers. Just a 105.6 EV90 on fly balls, which is good, but not elite. The 10% Brl% was okay, but powered mostly through angles (37% GB%) and a nice Air Pull Rate at 19%. It's not an easy park to hit homers in. So I wouldn't draft Dingler thinking you're getting a potential 30-homer bat. But he'll hit 20+ with a full-time job. **Speed** Not there, but that's not a big concern at catcher since nobody steals bases. **Plate Discipline** His xBA was almost .270, well above the .243 actual, and in line with what he did in 2025\. I think he's a good batting average catcher. About a league-average K% with an 88% Zone Contact%. The angles are very appealing: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-148.png) It was a 40% Sweet Spot%. He's always been a line drive hitter, so I like him to improve in batting average next year. They do have Eduardo Valencia, and with Dingler's elbow problems, you could see him losing some reps next year. That's the big concern for me. Is the elbow going to be back to 100%? If he's not throwing at 100%, they aren't going to start him 4-5 times a week behind the dish. **Final Thoughts** He's a good hitter with around a .750 OPS the last two years. Not a stud, but an above-average bat for a catcher. **Projection** It's not super great! *115 G, 56 R, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 1 SB, .247/.305/.428* He could play more than that, but it's far from a guarantee. I don't think he's a guy who has the capability of being a top five catcher, but he's only the #10 catcher in early ADP. So he's fine as a late-round catcher if you're not prioritizing that position in drafts. I'm lukewarm on Dingler. He's not really someone I'd want to draft in a 10 or 12 teamer, but he does matter for fantasy as a clear top 12 catcher to start the year. --- ### Max Clark > Age: **22** > Pos: **OF** The debut for Clark: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-149.png) Pretty nice slash line, but not a huge fantasy impact with the three homers and five steals that would extrapolate to around ten homers and 15 steals. **Power** He has slightly above bat speed. He's a smaller guy at 5'11'', so nobody ever thought he'd be a slugger. But he didn't hit a ton of ground balls like a lot of young guys do (41% GB%). His 13.4% Air Pull% isn't good, but not awful either. Just a 2.1% Brl% out of the gate. The EVs were bad, but it was only 142 balls in play. Max of 106, 90th under 102\. That's a concern. Can he build on that as a dude who is only 22 years old? Yes! But again, I don't think any prospect analyst saw him as a 25-homer guy at any point. I'm fine with thinking he could eventually get to 20 homers, but the projection for 2027 should be like 15\. **Speed** He can definitely run. Lots of foot speed. Just an 11% attempt rate in the Majors. It was 19% in the minors in 2026, 12% the previous year. This doesn't look like a guy who will steal 40 bags, but he's a potential 25-steal guy, and he gets on base a good bit, so the opportunities should be there. He's pretty raw right now with very limited experience at the highest level, so we're on development watch **Plate Discipline** Very strong contact hitter with a 90% Zone Contact% in the Majors so far. It's not a big swing, but around league average in swing length. That's pretty ideal. Swinging with above-average bat speed and having this high contact rate is a good sign that he can be a guy racking up base knocks. His swing rate was around league average, and so was his walk rate. It all looks around average on the discipline front, but with way better than average contact rates. So I like that part of his game, and it should keep him pretty fantasy relevant even while he figures things out. **Final Thoughts** He did benefit from a .333 BABIP. I think he's a high BABIP guy with the speed and decent bat speed, but you can't count on a .333 mark repeating. And that brings his AVG and OBP projection down, but he should be good at that stuff over the long haul. I think there's 20-20 upside in him, but there's downside if he can't adjust and make strides against big league pitching. This isn't an easy thing to do. His ADP is around 220, which seems fair to me. I think some people overvalue these former top prospects. Clark is very young and very athletic, but it doesn't look like the highest-upside profile for fantasy leagues right now. **Projection** *122 G, 55 R, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 10 SB, .255/.333/.406* He should play pretty much every day if healthy, so you're looking at a potential home run total above 15, and he's fast enough and gets on base enough to push toward 20 steals as well. I do think there's upside to crush this projection, but again, there's no chance of a 30-30 bustout season in my view. **Rank** We shouldn't dismiss the risk that he might end up back in AAA if he starts super slow. He has plenty of options on the contract, obviously, so they might not keep in the MLB lineup if it looks like he needs some more AAA reps. I don't think that's super likely, but it's possible. I'm around **Jung Hoo Lee** and **Hector Rodriguez** with the rank, but he can go ahead of them because of the upside and plate discipline that is beyond his years. --- ## Sign up for MLB Data Warehouse Data-First Fantasy Baseball Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. That's the free section! Become a paid member to get the rest of this post, a ton more content, and awesome tools. ### Spencer Torkelson > Age: **27** > Pos: **1B** The former #1 overall pick. He hasn't played like it. Low batting average, but a decent supply of homers. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-150.png) I was bought in last year after that 31-homer season. He felt like a really nice late-round 1B that could do most of what the mid-round guys do. But then hit .230 and dropped five homers off the ledger. Let's go through the skills. **Power** He's one of the kings of Air Pull% in the league. 26.5% last year by my dashboard's calculation. But the bat speed is middling, and the EVs were pretty weak last year (103.4 EV90 on fly balls). So he's a bit like Isaac Paredes in that he's relying heavily on pulling the ball down the line to get those "cheap" homers. His max EV was under 110\. He just doesn't hit the ball very hard, which limits his power upside. I think it will be tough for him to push past 30 homers. **Speed** Not there. **Plate Discipline** He struck out a ton last year. He was around 27% in 2024-2025, but that came up to 32% last year. That needs to improve. He's hunting balls he can pull in the air, which works, but it does seem to open him up to more swing and miss. And when he's not getting to those advantageous pitches, the quality of contact is poor, and he's going down on strikes a lot. He's patient with a 42% Swing%. He walked 11.6% of the time, which is high. I don't think pitchers are trying to work around him, but he knows what pitches he wants and is happy to let the bad ones go. Maybe he takes too many strikes, and his zone contact rate below 80% turns into strikeouts when he looks at strikes and gets behind. His xBAs by year: .209, .226, .211 (most recent). So he's a killer on your fantasy team's batting average, but better with the OBP. **Final Thoughts** He's a one-trick pony. The path to fantasy value is all about him getting near 30 homers. The batting average is a real problem, and you don't get more than a couple of steals. It's thin, real thin. For points leagues, it's better. He takes walks and has a .330 OBP the last two years. So he goes up the list in leagues where OBP subs in for AVG. But I don't see much reason to love the guy right now. He's like a deep league corner infield option in drafts where you need to catch up a bit in HR + RBI. **Projection** *140 G, 67 R, 24 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, .222/.322/.419* **Rank** Putting him in there near Matt Chapman. Ahead of Nolan Schanuel at 1B. Schanuel is a decent comp overall, but they get to their similar value in much different ways. --- ### Eduardo Valencia > Age: **27** > Pos: **C** He is *probably* the backup catcher behind Dingler. But he made his case in a big way last year. 42 games with a .341/.380/.636 slash line with eight homers. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-151.png) That looks like a guy you'd want to be in your lineup. But he'll be 27 next year, so it took him a long time to get to the bigs. His minor league record wasn't knocking down the door. But he did hit 24 homers with a .311 average in 2025 and then an .826 OPS with 17 more bombs in 81 games before finally getting called up. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-152.png) You wonder why he didn't get chances earlier than this. There were some injuries, but nothing major. We're left surveying him on 138 MLB PAs, so this is a tough one. **Power** 104.7 EV90 on fly balls, 15.5% Brl%, 20.6% Air Pull%. Torkelson-like. Not a ton of EV, around average bat speed. But a propensity for getting the ball into the air and pulling it a bunch. **Speed** None **Plate Discipline** Not very patient. A 53% Swing%, a 35% Chase%. So that turned into very few walks (4%). But he makes enough contact (80% Zone Contact%) to limit strikeouts to 23%. That's just slightly above his minor league numbers, so we can pretty much believe in him as a guy who can stay below a 25% K%. **Final Thoughts** It's really hard to judge Dingler/Valencia because we don't know the playing time. I think they could both serve some as the DH, but it looks like a split at catcher out of the gate. Valencia would be very interesting as a later-round catcher if we knew he was the starter, so we have to keep an eye out for the updates on Dingler's elbow. For now, I think he's a nice pick as a C2\. His ADP is around 300\. If what we saw last year carries over at all, he'll be a nice power bat at catcher, and there are no gaping holes in his game. **Projection** *71 G, 36 R, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 1 SB, .256/.311/.456* --- ### Hao-Yu Lee > Age: **24** > Pos: **2B/3B** He'll turn 24 right before the season, so he's a prospect just coming up. The minor league history wasn't very impressive (.748 OPS in 2025 with a max HR total of 14). But he was called up as a utility infielder and ended up playing a good bit. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-153.png) 114 games, a .747 OPS with ten homers and three steals on a .264 batting average. **Power** Not much here. Low bat speed, 104.7 EV90 but just 102.6 on fly balls. Max EV of 112, though, so he can ramp it up at times. His swing looks built for line drives instead of long fly balls. He pulled it in the air just 12% of the time, but did access some power with an 8.5% Brl%. His xwOBA was weak at .302\. He played around a 15-homer pace, though, and he doesn't pound the ball into the ground. So this isn't a situation where he's a single-digit homer guy. I'm just not seeing much upside with the lack of bat speed and low EVs when he was lifting it. **Speed** He has some sprint speed in the 70th percentile. But his SB Attempt% was just 6%. His best season in the minors was 22 steals in 2025 on an 18% attempt rate. So maybe he can be a 12-15 steal guy in the Majors. But he's not a burner who can steal 30+ bags. **Plate Discipline** 20% K%, 9.3% BB%. Solid but not great zone contact at 83%. League-average in swing rate at 47%. Chased at 29%. So that's all fine, nothing really of note. **Final Thoughts** He looks like "just a guy" (JAG) to me. He has no guarantee of being an everyday player. His .234 xBA and that .302 xwOBA are disappointing, and I don't see a ton of upside in home run rate or steal rate. So he's just kind of a filler guy for fantasy leagues. **Projection** *107 G, 59 R, 15 HR, 53 RBI, 7 SB, .253/.321/.417* If you think he'll play a lot, he could help a fantasy team with decent contributions across the board. He's not bad at anything, but the lack of big numbers in the minors and the lack of raw tools have me doubting he has much upside. **Rank** Connor Norby seems like the right comp. Lee's ADP is around 370, so he's a fringe guy in standard fantasy leagues. No reason to prioritize him anywhere; I don't think he'll be a big difference maker, and he might play his way out of the lineup. --- ### Kerry Carpenter > Age: **29** > Pos: **OF** He played just 81 games last year and was not good at all. After that big 2024 season, he's come in very flat. .208/.276/.416 last year with 13 homers. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-154.png) That's a nice home run rate. Would have been 26 homers over 162 games, so he can still do that. He had injuries, obviously. A foot thing in the middle of the season and a hamstring thing earlier on. So maybe the lack of AVG had to do with that; it was good to see him still hitting some homers. Carpenter, even in his best years, has been a platoon bat. He hit .130/.222/.174 against lefties last year. They never even gave him the chance to improve on that. So we're left with a part-time player at best. His K% came up to 29%, his xBA down to .210, and his xwOBA down to .293\. It was all pretty bad. I think he can do a lot better than this. He's definitely a solid power hitter against righties, but the upside is really limited since he doesn't play against lefties and he's been so inconsistent in his career. **Projection** *91 G, 46 R, 18 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB, .241/.303/.453* **Rank** Around the Jared Young range? He's tough. ADP is above 400, which I think is a buy. He could certainly hit 25 homers if he gets healthy and back to mashing righties. Ranks are being updated constantly as I go through this on this page, by the way: [2027 MLB DW Player RanksMLB DATA WAREHOUSE 2027 Player Rankings Hitter and pitcher rankings, notes, and analysis Work in progress while we get all team previews done. HittersPitchers Player search TeamAll teams PositionAll positions LeagueAll leaguesALNL C1B 2B3B SSOF UT / DH Loading rankings… Member sign-in · View memberships Try again Player rankings. Click column![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-c323a40e-03f3-4a6a-bb3c-8f97cd5a0c41.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/publication-cover-78e7e3c6-714d-483a-bf5f-2395a22186b1.jpg)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/2027-mlb-dw-player-ranks/) --- ### Colt Keith > Age: **25** > Pos: **3B** It took him until June 11th to hit a homer. He ended up with ten homers in 140 games on a .728 OPS. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-155.png) He's never done much for fantasy leagues. He's been pretty darn consistent around 12 homers, five steals, and a .260 batting average. There's no reason to think about him in leagues where fewer than 400 players get drafted. But he should continue to be in the lineup as the primary third baseman. He only has 3B eligibility this year, losing 2B and 1B last year. Three years of being a below-average hitter makes you wonder if they won't put him on the bench. He's no slam dunk to play 140 games again. Not a terrible points leagues guy, but there's really no fantasy upside, which is more of what we're looking for in the 400 range. **Projection** 96 G, 51 R, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 4 SB, .262/.332/.431 **Rank** Quite low. The playing time is a real question mark right now, although I'd bet on him finding his way to 130+ games. --- # Pitchers ### Framber Valdez > Age: **33** The Tigers made a questionable decision giving Framber a five-year deal. And he didn't make them feel very good about it last year. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-156.png) A 4.03 ERA, a career-worst (by far) 4.35 SIERA. The K% was never great, but it fell to a bad mark of 18% last year, and he kept walking people at an 8.8% rate. So that's not good. He's very cheap this year after that dud, so if we think he can snap back to 2024-2025 form, we're in business. His best attribute has always been the ground ball rate. He's really tough to get out of the ballpark, and he had done enough with the K% to have some really good seasons in the past. The GB% stayed high at 56%. He gave up just a 5.5% Brl% powered by a ridiculously low 18% FB%. Hitters had a .320 xwOBA against him. So he was still generating soft contact. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-157.png) But he was giving up way too many balls in play and walking too many guys. The 9.6% SwStr% is really bad; the 35.8% Ball% is around league average. The pitch mix: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-158.png) Again, he's never been a heavy whiffs guy. He's sinker-heavy to get those ground balls, and this year was a bad year for the sinker with a .378 xwOBA against. I think that can improve. The curveball, though. That pitch was worse for him. He didn't have great command of it and only a 13.4% SwStr%. He had a 20.5% SwStr% on the curveball in 2025\. So that's the issue - his curveball just started sucking. And he didn't have much to fall back on. That's extra concerning since he's old and switched teams. Did the Tigers mess up his curveball? Who knows, but it's harder to believe he can get it back next year. The Stuff+ on the curveball was the same, so I guess that's good news? But I don't know for sure if it is. The performance was way worse in a full season's sample. **Projection** 186 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 154 SO, 7.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 The projections expected a bounce-back. But he wasn't unlucky. His xERA in 2026 was 4.38 and that SIERA again was 4.35\. So he was bad by all measures. I think he'll be better than 2026, but how much better? I don't know. We need those 4-5 points of K% back, and I'm not sure it can happen. **Rank** He's a volume play. He'll probably be the Opening Day starter, and they'll get all the innings they can from him. He's still keeping the ball in the yard, and that can turn into a nice ERA if he can improve a little bit and have a somewhat lucky year with strand rate and BABIP and stuff. He's very similar to Landen Roupp, but with a better track record and more certain volume. **Walbert Urena** is a better comp. Drafters are still liking him, so I'll rank him up there at #7\. I really haven't gotten to many super good pitchers yet. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-159-1.png) --- ### Jackson Jobe > Age: **24** We got Jackson Jobe back in the middle of the season. He had elbow surgery and missed most of 2025 and most of 2026\. But he's back in play for 2027 and could end up being their ace if he can keep building up the pitch mix. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-160.png) Pretty nice 26.4% K%, not a horrible 8.3% BB%. So that's an 18% K-BB%, which is the first thing we check, and he passes that test. The 3.61 SIERA beat his 3.91 SIERA. He has big-time stuff, but doesn't get a ton of whiffs. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-161.png) The 48% GB% helps me here. I like that, and it makes the 12.1% SwStr% and 37% Ball% a bit easier to take. But we want more whiffs from a guy with this velo. His strand rate should go up. A 26% RISP H% is four points above league average, meaning he was giving up more hits than expected with runners in scoring position. So some bad luck there that explains the SIERA/ERA gap. Jobe finished the year extremely well, and I think that will get some people pretty excited. 32 strikeouts and six walks in his final three outings. So the K% was on the rise. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-163.png) The pitch mix: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-162.png) Let's talk about this fastball. 98mph on it, it's a big one. But a 102.3 Stuff+ and a 10.8% SwStr%, plus a .426 xwOBA. So it doesn't get the whiffs you'd think it does. Certainly he won't repeat a .426 xwOBA on the pitch. That's variance, and not good variance for him. Maybe the shape needs to be tweaked to get more whiffs, but the 51% Strike% was solid, and more velo is always better than less. So it's a fine pitch, it's just not looking like an elite heater despite how it looks on video with the big velo. He started throwing his slider more late in the year, which coincided with that hike in K%. That's a good one. 110 Stuff+, 14% SwStr%, .269 xwOBA. Still not elite numbers, but it worked, and the ball was on the ground 45% of the time against it. Then the sinker, which is nice to have to tunnel with the four-seamer, and it explains further his solid GB%. Five pitches used above 10% of the time. That's very good to see, and it will help Jobe develop and keep the floor pretty high. The "raw material" is here with Jobe. I'm just questioning him as a high K% guy. I think 26% is higher than he'll do next year. But that could look stupid. Lots of pitches, lots of velo, lots to build with. And he'll have a fully healthy offseason to tweak things. He's SP #53 off the board in early drafts. That makes him an SP3 or SP4 on fantasy teams. There's certainly SP2 upside for him, and I guess I don't see him being much worse than an SP4 even if he doesn't develop. So it's fine. I think some people might be overly excited about him because of the name value and the big velo. The fastball underperforms its velo, and I don't see that changing. But all of these other pitches being there make me like him. **Rank** We have to factor in upside in these ranks. Jobe looks like a guy who could potentially turn into an SP1-SP2 next year. So it's a decent idea to buy now. But the success isn't guaranteed, so I'd want to pair him with a few very reliable SPs around him just in case it goes south. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-164.png) --- ### Troy Melton > Age: **26** Really successful season from Melton after getting back from a serious injury that limited him to 45.2 innings in 2025. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-176.png) You love the 2.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, obviously. But then you see the 4.34 SIERA and 12% K-BB% and start having some doubts. He had just a 20% K% and 8% BB%, right in line with 2025\. It was the story of two halves, and then right forearm tightness ended his season a week early. But they've downplayed any seriousness of that injury, so if they're not lying, he'll be ready to go for 2027\. First 17 starts: 1.47 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 24% K%, 7.4% BB%, 0.79 HR/9 Last 7 starts: 6.03 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 15% K%, 8% BB%, 1.31 HR/9 The story you tell yourself about those final seven was that the arm fatigue had popped up and was hurting him. That's somewhat likely. But it's not a great sign! You can't get through 20 starts without arm fatigue... and he hasn't had a big volume season yet, so there are some durability concerns. I don't like the 12% K-BB%. And it was only 17% even when he was crushing to that 1.47 ERA. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-177.png) His SwStr% wasn't good at 11.6%, and his ball rate was league average. He was getting some luck early on, and that regressed in a hurry. What do we have with Melton for the future? It's pretty tough to know. The pitch mix: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-178.png) Seven pitches in the bag, but 54% usage of the four-seamer + cutter. It's the **Cam Schlittler** approach. But not big whiff marks on the fastballs. The four-seamer doesn't look good at all to me, and that's the reason I didn't like him last year and was calling him a sell when he was doing well. 94 Stuff+, 8.5% SwStr%, .347 xwOBA. High fly ball rate; I think that's a problem. But the cutter is good. A 92mph cutter is a fast one, and hitters really struggled with it. So I like that 1-2 punch; I think more even usage of those two is a good idea, and it could help the four-seamer since hitters will have to be ready for the different shapes out of the hand. The slider was pretty nice with a 16.8% SwStr% and .286 xwOBA against. The 104 Stuff+ and 108 MLB DW grade are positive. It's not a dominating slider, but you could probably tell that by the 17% usage. But it's a good pitch to have. The next step, I think, will be building up the sinker/curve/splitter. He seems like a guy that needs to mix it up and keep hitters from sitting on these pitches that they can hit out of the ballyard. I think he can be a solid SP2 in the bigs, and a fine SP4-SP5 on fantasy teams. It could go a lot of different ways. He hasn't been healthy for long enough to really develop, so maybe this offseason will be good for him. But at the end of the day, he's never cleared 130 innings and finished the year with arm fatigue. So I'm doubting his durability, and I'm not totally sold on the stuff either. **Projection** *141 IP, 4.18 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 123 SO, 7.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9* **Rank** Upside abounds. I think he could be good. Behind Framber, ahead of Gage Jump. --- ### River Ryan > Age: **28** He is free! He's healthy (for now) and got traded to an organization that actually might have a job for him. The injury sheet: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-179.png) He didn't pitch at all in 2025 and threw just 45 innings in 2026\. So I don't think we're getting 150+ innings from him. But he'll be in the rotation out of the gate if he's healthy. We only have four innings of MLB data from 2026. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-180.png) That small sample: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-181.png) He's plenty nasty with the 97mph fastball and the nasty slider. But he wasn't locating well with the 43% Ball% and 43% Strike% on those 82 pitches. It's too little of a sample to judge from. But he's always had the stuff to have some upside. Let's check the new Prospect Tool for more! [Introducing Prospect PagesNew tool alert for you paid subs to check out! I've taken the Prospect Analysis Tableau dashboard idea and packaged it into a web tool that is a lot more visually appealing, simpler, and easier to use. It takes all of the advanced minor league data we have, plus![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-233b0155-68dc-4840-95bd-eb7a0717d10a.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-11-11-at-11.16.55---AM-8eb52cdb-36f2-4cfd-8248-e2b08f59863e.png)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/introducing-prospect-pages/) This is from his 41 MiLB innings last year: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-182.png) Very low BB% in the minors at 5.1%. That makes you feel better about his Major League Ball% in that short sample. Decent extension too with that elite velo. It was all very good in those 40 minor league innings. It's a shame it took him until 28 to finally get into the possibility of a full season in the Majors, but we can't discount the stuff he has and the upside that comes with it. But he's a tough projection and a tough rank since we've seen so little of him. This will essentially be his big league debut, so there are many questions to be answered. **Rank** I can't go too high on him since he's probably coming in around 110 innings in a median outcome. And maybe another injury will pop up, we really have no reason to be confident in his health. But I think he'll have some studly outings because the stuff is so legit. I guess he's pretty similar to Jonah Tong, who I might have too high. I'll review all of this once I have most guys ranked. He's at #15 for now. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-183.png) --- After that, we don't know who will be the #5\. **Drew Anderson** and **Keider Montero** will probably compete for it. I think Anderson looks like a decent SP5 option for them. He's old (33), but he did have a 15.6% K-BB% in 100+ innings last year: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-184.png) Not a good heater, but he located it pretty well. His changeup was great, and he generated a .300 xwOBA. Overall, a 13.3% SwStr% powered by that changeup and a 34.8% Ball%. So that's solid. And the 49% GB% helps as well, especially in that park. He looks to me like a guy they should plan on giving starts and innings too. 108 innings last year, and they won't be asking a ton from him, maybe as the SP5\. He was pitching in Japan and Korea as a journeyman for a few years there, but he's re-emerged and earned himself a job in some capacity in 2027. He's in the mid-300s in ADP early on. That would have to plummet if they sign somebody else or just state that he's going to the bullpen. This is guesswork that he'll be in the rotation at this point. I don't suspect Melton and Ryan will stay healthy all year, so I do think Anderson gets some innings. And he looks like a good option to me, so I'll rank him. --- **Reese Olson** will be healthy near the beginning of the season, barring any setbacks. He's still a bullpen guy to me, but we'll see what their plan is. Bad fastball, good breakers, and constant injuries. We'll rank him appropriately later if we get the green light that he's healthy and in the rotation again. **Keider Montero** is the swing man that they've had to use in the rotation. But the numbers aren't good, and I really don't think they'll need him in the rotation to start the year. --- # Prospects to Know **Zyhir Hope** is the top prospect in the system after being the main return in the Skubal deal. He reached AA, so I don't think he's an Opening Day candidate, but he could debut in the middle of the season if he debuts in AAA and continues to hit. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-186.png) --- **Josue Briceno** is #2, and he reached AAA last year. So he could be in the catcher mix as well, making that situation even less appealing. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-187.png) --- Those are the two to know. **Bryce Rainer** is probably a year away, he was in A+ last year. **Brady Smith** was another pitcher they got in the Skubal deal that we like, but he's in the lower levels as well. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-185.png) Listen to the pod here for the full breakdown on this top 20: [2027 Prospect Preview Pod: Detroit TigersOwen Hurd (@Owen\_FBB) jumps back on with Tim to cover the Tigers top 20 prospects. Here's the list: View each team's top 30 prospect list as they come out here. See full podcast series here Full episode can be found on Spotify or YouTube:![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-65c3be24-12ab-4bc0-b2da-da5702ff9078.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-11-02-at-8.09.30---AM-376ddb42-3941-45ac-95f6-da72f84183f1.png)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/2027-prospect-preview-pod-detroit-tigers/) --- But as I went through that, I came to like the Tigers chances a bit more. The rotation could be pretty good if they hit on some of the upside with Melton/Jobe/Ryan, and the offense isn't in terrible shape. I think they could benefit from acquiring a solid bat, and maybe Hope and Briceno will give them a mid-season boost.