> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # 2027 Team Previews: Kansas City Royals - URL: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/2027-team-previews-kansas-city-royals/ - Published: 2026-11-10T14:21:56.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-10T14:25:27.000Z - Author: Jon Anderson - Tags: 2027 Team Previews ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/royalsteam.png) --- [**Follow along with all team previews here**](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/tag/2027-team-previews/) --- The Royals finished 69-93 to take last place in the AL Central. They had some big injuries, but ovearll the roster just wasn't ready to make any big waves. And it's not looking super great for 2027, either. **Cole Ragans** had another surgery and won't be a factor until the middle of the season in 2027\. His injury sheet is long and scary, so it's fair to wonder if he'll ever be able to put another full season together. That leaves them with a decent young hitting core, but very little to get excited about on the pitching side. --- # Hitters ### Bobby Witt Jr. > Age: **26** > Pos: **SS** Witt played 143 games last year, so it wasn't a fully healthy season. He had a right knee MCL sprain in June and then some back issues in the summer. Maybe more significant than the 15-20 missed games from that was some depressed production. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-84.png) It was his worst season of the last three with an .800 OPS. He has not been able to recapture the .977 mark with 32 bombs from back in 2024 when he was looking like a top-three hitter in the league behind Judge and Ohtani. He's only 26, and still scored 94 runs with 45 steals on a .281 batting average. He's not going to be falling out of the top five in ADP this year, especially with a bleaker outlook on Judge and Ohtani at the tippy-top. Why doesn't he hit more homers? That's the question I'm always asking. It's not for lack of bat speed (73rd percentile) or EVs (107.5 EV90 overall). It's really just about the swing path and the low pull rate. He did lift the ball a good bit with a 36% GB%, but there were more line drives (28%) than fly balls (27%), which you don't see super often. His air pull rate at 13.2% is the main explanation for why he's come up with 41 homers the last two years. He's a spray hitter who seems to be focused on just hitting the ball (hard) where it's pitched. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-85.png) That suits him just fine. He's consistently putting up high batting averages, and his .299 xBA was elite last year. The 17.6% K% and 8.9% BB% result in a ton of balls in play, and his EVs and sprint speed generate a bunch of hits. [**The swing path**](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/bat-tracking/swing-path-attack-angle?playerList=677951-2026-R%2C691406-2026-R&selectedIdx=0&ref=mlbdatawarehouse.com) is built for line drives hit up the middle. But he did have that 4.3% HR% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024\. Two 30+ homer seasons. His Air Pull% was around 17% in those two, and since then it's been a few ticks lower. Home runs are very important for fantasy. For Witt, they're almost like the icing on the cake. He's going to score a ton of runs, hit .280+, and be among the leaders in steals. You can easily earn first-round numbers even with just 20 homers if that's the case He's a $32 player in the early Steamer projections with 24 homers, 32 steals, and a .288 average. That puts him behind only Soto, Wood, Ohtani, and Yordan. It seems pretty hard to go wrong with Witt as your first pick, but maybe he hurts your team a bit in HR+RBI if that's your start. The rest of your league will start with big HR+RBI guys, but you'll be ahead in AVG and SB. On the speed front, we've only seen him stealing more bases as he's gotten older. A 30% attempt rate last year, his highest since that huge 2023 season, and a career-best 85% success rate. Plus, we have to expect more slugging than last year. He's not an .800 OPS hitter. This was his first time below .850 in the last three years. One thing that changed last year was his walk rate. He was at 5%, 6%, 8%, and 7% in his first four years. That jumped up to 10.6% in 2026\. He dropped his swing rate down a couple more points, and pitchers weren't afraid of walking the guy without a ton of thump behind him in the lineup. I can't say exactly what Witt will do next year besides being confident in a .280+ average and 30+ steals. He certainly has the skills to hit 30+ homers if he wants to change the approach a bit. But I can't say that his 2026 production wasn't disappointing considering the high cost. Early drafts have PCA and Ohtani as the clear 1-2\. Elly and Witt are the next two. So that's where we're at. Would you take Elly over Witt? It's not ridiculous by any measure, but Witt would seem a bit safer to me. I think he has a way wider path to that .280 average we're talking about than Elly, given the big gap in their K%. I'm putting Witt ahead of Elly for my new #1, but they are pretty close. --- ### Jac Caglianone > Age: **24** > Pos: **1B/OF** After a slow start in 2026, something clicked. We figured it would happen. He has all the talent in the world, but just seemed to need those reps and tweaks to make it all happen. Overall: .289/.340/.494, 23 HR (24 PA/HR) After 6/1: .317/.360/.554, 18 HR (20 PA/HR) Cags has elite bat speed and elite EVs. - 110.3 EV90 - 109.5 EV90 on fly balls - 13% Brl% What has held him back is the higher GB% and lower Air Pull%. Lots like Witt in his early days, when there were a lot of balls hit the other way and a lot of balls hit on the ground. But unlike Witt, he has that 109.5 EV90 on fly balls. His fly balls are hit very, very hard too. We'll see this laid out with Maikel Garcia in a bit. Some guys' swings only generate elite EVs when the ball is hit on a line or on the ground. That's not what we're seeing with Caglianone. But it's not an uppercut swing. He's a guy happy to hit line drives, it seems. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-86.png) During that June-September breakout, he was still at a 47% GB%. But his air pull came up a bit to 18%. He has so much power; he's going to get to home runs even if he's hitting the ball on the ground around 45% of the time. But it's fair enough to wonder if he can be a 40-homer guy with this swing. He hit 16 of 23 homers against righties, and his xBA against lefties was .234 with an ugly-looking 29% K% and 1% BB%. So he's not super great against lefties to this point; we'll need him to improve there to facilitate a huge fantasy breakout. Can he earn top-20 hitter production with this stuff going on? Maybe not. But I feel pretty good about him being a .275+ batting average with at least 25 homers over a full season. He stole seven bases in 143 games with a 7% attempt rate. He's not a fast runner, but he's willing to take the bases when they're given to him. His 78% Success% isn't fantastic, but at least you can project him for 5-10 steals. Cags could benefit from being a bit more selective. He swung 54% of the time and chased a good bit at 40%. He's played about 1.5 seasons' worth of games in the Majors, so he's still developing and learning lessons. The steamer projection: 137 G, 78 R, 29 HR, 90 RBI, 6 SB, .276/.333/.498 Pretty darn good for a steamer projection, and the guy has so much physical talent that a tweak to lift/pull the ball a bit more would explode his HR total. The upside is 35 bombs with a .290 batting average and a ton of RBI. The downside is that his K% stays in the upper-20s and he keeps hitting balls on the ground. The .360 BABIP has some room to come down, but he profiles as a very high BABIP guy, so I wouldn't worry much about that. I'm down for Caglianone at 1B. He's only the 8th first baseman off the board in early drafts, and that gives him plenty of room to beat that. Remember that they moved the fences in before last season. Looking at the team stats, that didn't really show up clearly. But of course it helped. You don't move the fences closer and not have it help hitters get more home runs. The home team just doesn't hit a ton of fly balls in the way that generates homers. But it remains a good thing for these hitters. **Rank** I'm around the **Rafael Devers** range with Caglianone. That's a pretty good comp in my view. Cags is younger and has more upside. Better lineup, better park. But not as proven. I'm putting him in there ahead of Devers, but I think those will cluster together pretty tightly in drafts. And the 1B/OF eligibility helps you a lot during the season when you have injuries. That's a plus. --- ### Carter Jensen > Age: **23** > Pos: **C** Jensen was a bit of a one-trick pony in his first full year. He hit 27 homers to lead the team and give you a big edge at the catcher position on that front. But the .239 average kept the OPS down at .790\. Only two steals, which you don't care much about at the catcher position, but he was a double-digit steals guy in the minors, so we were kinda hoping he could be a 25-10 guy in the Majors, and it doesn't look like that's happening. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-87.png) **Power** The best tool, and it's backed up by the numbers. - 12.6% Brl% - 107.4 EV90 - 107.5 EV90 on fly balls - 18% Air Pull% It's not elite bat speed, but more than enough to be a 25+ homer guy, and the EVs were great, as we saw. He's one of the few Royals who doesn't pound the ball into the ground, so that's a welcome sign for a catcher you're drafting for home run production. Against lefties: .237/.306/.368, 4 HR in 170 PAs. Trouble there. But he played 149 games, so they weren't thinking about platooning him through that. He played 106 games at catcher, and the rest were DH appearances. Sal Perez is still there to take some DH stuff, but he's going to play less and less, you'd think. We'll get to him, but you know the story. He's old, and the offensive production is dwindling. Jensen should easily be a 140+ games guy with health. They like him behind the plate, and they're happy to DH him instead of giving him days on the bench. **Speed** He's faster than most catchers. But just a 2% attempt rate last year, so this isn't something they really want him to do. The double-digit steals seasons in the minors still give you some reason to believe that he could get to 8-10 steals. A lot of catchers draw completely dead in steals, and that's not the case with Jensen. **Plate Discipline** Here's the thing he needs to work on. He struck out a lot at 28%. His contact rate was 70% overall and 80% in the zone. He was patient with a 45% Swing%, and had a nice 24% Chase% as well. So he seems to see the pitches well, as he should, being a catcher! But the contact rate holds him back a little bit. I'm encouraged by the 80% Zone Contact%. The league average is 84%, so he's below average, but there are plenty of hitters with high K% that are well below 80%, so he's better than those guys, and he's still getting acquainted with MLB pitchers. **Final Thoughts** I think there's room for growth. The ceiling is certainly there to be a top catcher in the future. Maybe he makes more contact, hits .250 with 30 homers and steals nine bags or something like that. The downside is that pitchers adjust before he does and the high K% continues. His higher fly ball rate doesn't help the BABIP, so he could end up being a .230-.240 batting average guy again. **Projection** 118 G, 74 R, 23 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB, .246/.329/.458 That playing time projection should be higher. I think they'll continue to use him as a DH. He's their best power hitter, after all! So we're looking at a repeat of his 25-30 HR season with 6-7 steals and a potential batting average above .250\. Lots to like here, but he's not a fully formed top five catcher yet. And the ADP shows that he's the #6 catcher off the board. **Rank** I like letting the league set the catcher market. I'm not going to be the first one taking one in most contexts, but I don't like to wait super long either and end up with a spot I'm trying to figure out all year. Jensen's in the sweet spot here for me. And he has a ton of upside. So I'm very much in on Jensen. I have Langeliers and Goodman as 1-2 right now, and I'll slide Jensen in there at #3 behind them. I can't really see going Jensen over Goodman, but for the cost, I think I'll like Jensen more. ***Paywall time: subscribe at any tier to get the full 2027 Team Previews and a ton more content and tools.*** ### Vinnie Pasquantino > Age: **29** > Pos: **1B** It was an injury-plagued season for Vinnie P in 2026\. Hamate bone in June, right wrist & hand soreness in July-August, and some lesser-known back stuff going on as well. I think the numbers are skewed because of that. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-88.png) He had this huge 32-homer season in 2025\. That was a 4.7% HR% that does not match the rest of his career. You see the home run totals around that. He probably would've gotten to 20 had he not been hurt last year, but he was back to the 3.5% HR% he had in every other year of his career. Without the hand injuries, maybe that would have been closer to 4%. The power breakout in 2025 wasn't necessarily a total mirage. **Power** Higher EVs (103.8 EV90) overall than on fly balls (101.5 EV90 on fly balls in 2026). Just a 9.4% Brl% last year, so that supports him as a low-20s home run bat. He does pull it in the air a good bit (20% in 2026), and he makes a ton of contact (16% K%, 92% Zone Contact%), so he can pile up homers in that way - with volume rather than with huge bat speed. The bat speed is lacking, which is the main reason I just never really subscribed to him as a 30-homer guy. But there's some power there, and he's usually been hitting in a run-producing spot in the lineup. He drove in 113 runs in 2025\. That wasn't going to repeat, but it does show you what you can do when you're putting a bunch of line drives and fly balls into play with Bobby Witt Jr. hitting ahead of you. **Speed** Five steals last year, a new career high. His attempt rate was always 1%, and then it jumped to 5% last year. But yeah, five steals as a career high tells you the story. That's not a part of his game. **Plate Discipline** The most impressive thing about Vinnie has always been his consistent, high-quality contact. His contact rates are elite, he rarely strikes out, and he took more walks than ever before in 2026 (10.6% BB%). So this is the skill to hold onto for fantasy leagues. Maybe he won't hit 25 homers, maybe he'll only steal four bases, but the RBI floor is pretty nice because of how many balls he gets into play. The batting average hasn't followed that exactly. He was around a .260 batting average before last year when it fell to .249\. His xBAs are right in line with that. But have to believe he wasn't swinging the bat with the same authority or control with the hand injuries going on. **Final Thoughts** I'm betting on Vinnie getting back to the 2024-2025 form, without the 30+ homer potential. I think he's a solid player, but nothing exciting in fantasy leagues. A .260 batting average with 20-25 homers, a useful OBP, and a good number of RBIs. I think it's a buy low this year because we can blame this down year on health. He's 1B #15 in early drafts, and I think that's a nice value for him. Again, there's no real upside for him to be a top five guy at the position, but I think you'll be really pleased with what you get from him at this price, provided he's healthy. **Projection** 129 G, 69 R, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 3 SB, .258/.333/.454 **Rank** I've got him right around Bryce Eldridge and Spencer Steer at 1B. I think Eldridge will separate upwards, but Steer is a pretty decent comp. I do think he'll be a solid pick at the cost. --- ### Maikel Garcia > Age: **27** > Pos: **3B** He played only half of the season with various injuries. He recently had an elbow procedure to clean some things up, but he'll be good for spring training. Here's that injury rundown: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-90.png) Lots going on there. It wasn't going well before the injuries, and it didn't go well after. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-89.png) He was a batting average and steals guy coming into the year, but he hit just .268 with a .381 SLG and only five steals in half of a season. So he did nothing well. But maybe he was just hurt? They certainly believed in the guy prior to this year, giving him a big old contract extension. So we should try to evaluate Maikel Garcia over his whole career rather than just this last season. **Power** He popped off for 16 bombs in 2025, and that had us wondering where that came from. He's always been a guy to hit the ball hard on the ground, but not in the air. That was the case again last year: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-91.png) His swing is a low-angle attack. He does have some bat speed, but it's built for driving the ball through the infield. He did not do much pulling in the air (13%) and ended up with a 4.2% Brl%. So we cannot trust him to hit double-digit homers again. I think in a fully healthy season, he's like a 9-12 homer guy. Not very helpful. **Speed** He absolutely needs this tool to be useful in fantasy leagues. He stole 23, 37, and 23 bags before last year when he fell to just five on a 10% attempt rate. The extra bad news is that his attempt rates had been falling prior to this year. From 29% in 2024 to 18% in 2025 to 10% in 2026\. So he wasn't very aggressive on the bases even in 2025\. It's another big question mark. We can blame a lot of 2026 on the hamstring stuff; that certainly is a big factor. You're not going to be stealing bags without a fully healthy hammy. His sprint speed was just 54th percentile in 2026, which was down a bit from years prior, but he's never been a burner. Just 63rd percentile sprint speed in 2025 and 65th percentile in 2024\. So he's gotten slower; maybe it comes back with health. I'm just trying to say that we do not know for sure that he's a 25+ steals guy. He could be perfectly healthy all year and still only grab 15-20 bags. Adding that onto 9-12 homers makes it all pretty bleak. **Plate Discipline** xBAs by year: 2024: .271 2025: .276 2026: .259 This is another tool he has to have. You have to get a .270 batting average from him if he's only hitting ten homers and stealing less than 30 bags. The good news is that he doesn't strike out much at all with a 14.5% K% last year, which was in line with his prior years, and a short swing that generates a 93% Zone Contact%. Lots of the contact is on the ground (46%), which isn't the end of the world because he does hit those balls pretty hard. Check out his BABIPs by year: 2024: .309 2025: .308 2026: .268 Bad luck in 2026\. As a guy who hits ground balls and line drives with authority and has above-average speed, you'd think he's a .300 BABIP guy, so there's lots of room to grow from 2026 on that front. **Final Thoughts** I'm just left seeing a ton more downside than upside with Garcia. Those 16 homers in 2025 felt like a dream scenario, and the steals stuff was trending down even before the hamstring injuries. Now we have a guy with questionable health whose two good tools are in question. It's tough to get excited about Garcia. **Rank** I thought he'd be really cheap this year, but early ADP has him around pick 160\. I suppose that is pretty cheap for an everyday player, but I would have guessed pick 200+. He's the #11 3B off the board in a weak position. The obvious comp is **Bo Bichette**. Limited power and a potentially good batting average with 150+ games played if healthy. Garcia has more steals, but it's hard to like either guy. Major flaws in the games; you're pretty much drafting them just for the certainty of playing time. --- ### Salvador Perez > Age: **36** > Pos: **C/1B** Just another 150+ game season for Perez. He played a lot of catcher and then got enough reps at 1B and DH to have eligibility there. But the production finally bottomed out. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-97.png) 21 homers, a .229 batting average. For years, he was a guy you could draft for 30-homer upside and a bunch of playing time. The batting average was always kind of up-and-down, but we're pretty sure the dude is washed at this point. 36 years old, he lost 60 points on the ISO and saw his xSLG drop to .439\. Check the Statcast trend: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-98.png) His K% held steady, but the quality of contact came way down, and that is what you'd expect for a guy of this age, right? Just a .250 xBA with a 10.6% Brl% and a 42.6% Hard Hit%. His EV90 on fly balls was 103.8, which is poor. His max came down 2.5 points. Salvy is probably a Hall of Fame catcher. The longevity he's shown has been amazing, and he's hit 324 career homers. He's going to try to play another year or two or three; who knows when he'll want to stop, but we have to start wondering if he's even the right choice to be in the lineup. Carter Jensen is the catcher, Vinnie Pasquantino is the first baseman, so it's only DH left for Salvy on those normal days when Jensen doesn't need rest. Do they really want to roll with the Jensen/Perez C/DH thing for 150 more games? Perez is the face of the franchise, and he still hit 21 homers, so it's not like he was the worst player in the league. But if they're thinking at all about the future, you'd expect them to get some other guys more DH reps and see what they have with younger players. So I'm thinking like 120 games for Perez with an easy sub-.700 OPS, a poor batting average. You're just hoping and praying the power doesn't reduce any more. A 20+ homer season could happen, but to me, that's the only hope for fantasy value even in deeper leagues. **Projection** 116 G, 52 R, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB, .245/.292/.416 **Rank** He's around **Francisco Alvarez** with what I currently have in the ranks. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-99.png) --- ### The Others That's everybody inside the top 500 ADP, and everybody with at least $1 valuation from Steamer. So I'm calling it quits. But we'll look at some **Prospects to Know** after our short venture in their pitching staff. --- # Pitchers ### Michael Wacha > Age: 35 Wacha and Cameron are the only two going inside the top 400 in early drafts, and Wacha is barely inside the top 300 at age 35\. If you're playing in a shallow 12-team league, you probably won't see a single Royals SP get drafted unless someone is stashing **Cole Ragans** on the IL. But credit to Wacha for what he did in 2026\. 200.2 solid innings, the third-most in MLB (Sandy Alcantara at 214, Cristopher Sanchez at 207). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-101.png) And a 3.32 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. He was a legitimately valuable fantasy starting pitcher, especially in leagues with quality starts (his 21 last year tied for 3rd in the league). But this is a predictive business we're in. And his 4.39 SIERA and the age obviously make us think he won't come close to repeating this. But how did he do it? How do you give up 30 homers with a 13% K-BB% and do this well? First of all, the .245 BABIP helped. He was at .290 in 2024 and .287 in 2025\. He had a moderate fortune in strand rate at 79%. His career number is 75%. His HR/FB% actually came up, so he wasn't lucky on that regard, but he was still below the league average. But the biggest reason for him beating his SIERA so handily was the depth of pitch mix and the changeup. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-102.png) Six pitches you had to be ready for. A changeup with a .225 xwOBA against. That's how you hide a bad fastball. And his fastball wasn't really all that bad because he located it well and kept the xwOBA to .332, which is only about ten points worse than the league average. The cutter and sinker aren't anything special, but they do tunnel super well with the four-seamer, and that trio keeps hitters off balance. I want to check his last four seasons in ERA and SIERA to see if this is trend: - 2023: 3.22 ERA | 4.43 SIERA - 2024: 3.35 ERA | 4.17 SIERA - 2025: 3.86 ERA | 4.61 SIERA - 2026: 3.32 ERA | 4.39 SIERA So yeah, he does this every year. I wrote this post on the old MLB DW last year: [Andrew Abbott & Defying SIERAA formula for locating pitchers who are more likely to beat their ERA predictors![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F175f06a7-9586-4ec3-8f65-c77a6f38d7a9-2Ffavicon-48x48-e304ecac-bf7e-40d8-b3da-68047f369fb8.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon A![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F1f93334a-8308-4338-ba2c-f45167b525f7_1024x1024-7c79be98-0bc3-4c32-9eb8-c5900e103bcc.jpg)](https://jona.substack.com/p/andrew-abbott-and-defying-siera) I looked at the biggest ERA and SIERA gaps from the three prior years to check for common threads. Wacha was in there, but the common thread seemed to be left-handed pitchers who throw a lot of off-speed stuff like changeups and sweepers. I'm going to check on this again soon in another post, but I don't think there's a consistent, reliable formula for spotting this. You probably need to take it on a case-by-case basis, but Wacha is certainly an outlier in this since he does it every year. Can he do it again as a 36-year-old? You know for sure you're not going to get many strikeouts, and the 1.35 HR/9 is concerning. I don't think his BABIP will stay that low in 2027, and it could all fall apart really quickly if the elite command goes away with another year of age. **Projection** *189 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 152 SO, 7.2 K/9* The ERA is too high. He can do better than that. Steamer has him for a 4.46 FIP, but he always beats that. So I could see a 4.10 ERA and plenty of volume again. That makes him a decent guy for the bottom of your rotation in a 15-team league, but for 12-team leagues I don't think I'd draft him counting on this stuff to hold up. You can use him as a streamer if he makes it there, I don't think he has anywhere near the upside I'm looking for in the latter half of the draft. **Rank** He's SP #78 in early drafts. So he's definitely looked at as a top 100 SP. My #10 SP right now early on in this series is **Landen Roupp**. Wacha is in that range. I mean dang, #7 is **Gage Jump**. Do we really think that Jump will definitely be better than Wacha? He certainly has a lot more upside, but Wacha is a proven horse who knows how to pitch. Wacha's going at #10 ahead of Roupp for now. It really depends on your league. If you're in the 250-300 range in a 12-teamer, you're better off buying some upside. Find someone who *could* end up as a top 30 SP if they develop. It does feel stupid to have him behind Nick Lodolo, though! So man, I don't know! This is a tough rank. I don't want to just throw the dude out who just threw 200 innings with a 3.30 ERA just because he's old and boring. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-104.png) --- ### Noah Cameron > Age: **27** Cameron was one of the pitchers I highlighted in that post a year ago (SIERA beaters). He's a lefty with a changeup and a six-pitch mix. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-105.png) A 4.11 ERA wasn't terrible, but it's not something you're pumped about in a 12-team fantasy league. His K-BB% was fine at 13.4%. We want guys with 15%+ K-BB% and big fastballs, but there aren't all that many of them! Cameron's still pretty young, and he definitely has a job locked down in this rotation with how few options they have. Let's go right into the pitch mix: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-106.png) Bad fastball; 7.9% SwStr%, 86 Stuff+, 96 MLB DW grade. It got hit hard. But he didn't have to rely on it with just 24% usage, and the cutter and sinker he has deeper in the bag. The changeup is great. 17.9% SwStr%, .284 xwOBA, 20% usage. He could probably throw a few more of those in the future. It seems like he's learning some lessons for Wacha and Lugo. Know thyself. You don't have a dominant fastball, so get crafty with it. He gave up 21 homers, 16 of them to righties. His splits weren't horrible, though. A 3.89 JA SIERA to righties and 3.33 mark to lefties. It's enough that opposing teams will obviously stack righties against him. Cameron had a 3.84 ERA before his final two starts, where he gave up ten runs. But that's kinda who he's going to be. He'll go on runs where he has the perfect touch, and he'll look very, very good. He had a complete-game shutout; two other times he threw eight innings with zero runs or one run allowed. He struck out 7+ 11 times. So he has moments. But he also gave up 5+ earned runs seven times. So it's a bit boom-or-bust, and overall, you know the bad starts are going to come because he just doesn't have the raw stuff to rely on. He's pretty close to Wacha, honestly. I like Cameron a bit. I think he's a really smart pitcher with good command, and he's young enough to still improve. Maybe he can go more to the cutter and/or use the changeup more. Maybe the sinker can come more into play. There are options. **Projection** *182 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 158 SO, 7.8 K/9* **Rank** *I'm putting him right behind Wacha.* --- ### Seth Lugo > Age: **37** This is kind of the worry with Wacha at his age. Because Lugo had a nice 3.00 ERA in 2024 and then a 4.15 mark in 2025 despite bad SIERA's and very few strikeouts. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-107.png) But it stopped working in 2026\. A 5.17 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP. He gave up 23 homers, and they weren't timed well. The luck wasn't on his side with a .333 BABIP. He was below .280 the prior two years. So that can come down. The Tableau Dashboard can't even fit his full pitch mix without a scrollbar: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-108.png) There's a slow curve and a slurve at the bottom below 3% usage. But mostly, he's a seven-pitch guy. Unlike Wacha, none of them worked very well. They were all hittable, and he had just two pitches with a double-digit swinging strike rate. A 44% Strike% and 36% Ball% and .343 xwOBA. Bad stuff all around. And now he'll be 38... I do think he can be better than 2027, but we might just be at the end of the road for Lugo. **Projection** *176 IP, 4.66 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 140 SO, 7.1 K/9* **Rank** He's down there with Jacob Lopez. His ADP is outside the top 500\. --- ### Cole Ragans > Age: **29** We won't see him until the middle of the season. He threw just 61.2 innings in 2025 and then 35.1 last year before the surgery. He had no command last year (15.2% BB%), but he was still nasty with a 30% K%. If you think he can get healthy and not get hurt again, he'd be a valuable guy to have in the second half. But it's thin. He's now had two Tommy John surgeries and this most recent Internal Brace Procedure. He's 29, but he's had three elbows. So it's tough to see. Super easy guy to ignore *unless you have a ton of IL spots in your league.*So just consult your league settings and make that decision. If you can grab him in the last round, stash him on IL, and replace him right away, that's worth it. But don't expect much. There are a lot of different ways for it not to work, and who knows if he'll be able to locate anything ever again. ### Other Notes Somebody is going to have to step up next year. They need depth badly. Maybe it'll be a trade or free agency. They aren't going to acquire a big name, but they probably do need to add some guys just to get through the year. They got some magic from **Randy Dobnak** for a minute. He posted a 3.51 ERA in 74.1 innings with 13 starts. But a 15.3% K%... not a 15.3% K-BB%, a 15.3% K%. That's not going to work, but they might need him in the rotation out of necessity early on. They moved **Daniel Lynch** into the rotation late to get them through the season, but he's probably going back to the bullpen. He was a good reliever and a horrible starter. They have **John Means** and **Tony Gonsolin** as depth guys, but it's more of the same - older dudes who can't stay healthy without good stuff. --- # Prospects to Know ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-100.png) **Carson Roccaforte** is the guy who could make some waves in spring and threaten to make the team. He hit 35 bombs last year and reached AAA for 118 PAs. Plus, he stole 32 bags. So that's an enticing fantasy profile, but his near 30% K% makes you wonder if he'll translate to the Majors at all. If nothing else, it will probably be slow getting going. **Lucas Braun** is a young rotation candidate. He made 17 starts in AAA, so he's close. But his fastball is 92mph and he had just a 10.5% SwStr% in the minors last year. The command is good and the slider got some whiffs. I don't really see it, but I do think he'll be a guy you see a lot of next year. I don't see much, though. The AA-AAA guys last year were mostly low-strikeout guys in their mid-20s. So they need to bulk up this pitching system in a hurry to have any sort of chance.