> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # 2027 Team Previews: Los Angeles Angels - URL: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/2027-team-previews-los-angeles-angels/ - Published: 2026-10-29T18:26:49.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-29T18:26:49.000Z - Author: Jon Anderson - Tags: 2027 Team Previews I'm just publishing these team previews as I finish them this year. Why not, right? Why wait for December/January to jam them all out quickly? What's written is written, very little will change this winter as the lockout comes into play and shuts down player/team conversation. So here's the link where all of the team previews will be populating: [2027 Team Previews - MLB Data Warehouse![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-8432f353-7b0c-4b26-a597-883254ae8fbc.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/publication-cover-a67df324-40bf-4313-b2a4-d94dc3defd5d.jpg)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/tag/2027-team-previews/) So far the Rockies are the only one out there. --- The Angels are the second team we're getting into. The Angels went 62-100, and the bad times continued. There were a couple of good stories in the rotation, and **Mike Trout** stayed healthy! But it wasn't enough. It's a brutal organization. They did change their pitching coaching staff in August and saw some great returns on that. So maybe they'll figure something out and make some noise before long. They'd be a team that would be willing to spend some money once they see the light at the end of the tunnel. Here's our guess at the roster; note that I'm currently writing this part in October: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-49.png) # Hitters ### Zach Neto > Age: 26 > Position: SS Maybe it's just the fact that I usually fall asleep before 10:30pm, or the fact that the Angels weren't an interesting team last year, but I really couldn't have guessed the dude's stat line very accurately before I looked. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-50.png) It *felt* like a bad year for Neto in my memory. But he hit 27 more bombs with 24 more steals. That's 41 HR+SB, very good. He also scored 102 runs. That number stunned me. Only six players scored more runs than him. The batting average came down to .239, but the OBP gained 11 for a pretty decent .332 mark. This was a strange situation. He swung on a career-high range, chased *way* more, and yet took more walks. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-51.png) He does not have good discipline at the plate. We already knew that, but the increase in walk rate might make some people think that he got better at that in 2026\. That's not really the case. But you drafted Neto for power and speed, and you got both of those things once again. **Power** He's not the greatest EV guy. 105.9 EV90 on fly balls. 11.9% Brl%. It's all pretty good, but he's definitely a guy who "overperforms" his raw power. He does that with a sick 26% Air Pull%. He converted 52% of his barrels into homers last year, which is probably low with that kind of air pull rate. I feel like he deserved a couple more homers than that. But maybe he just wasn't hitting those pulled fly balls super hard with his max EV under 110. 23, 26, and 27 homers in the last three years. That's almost enough to just take him as a 25-homer guy and not really bother looking much more into it. **Speed** 30, 26, and 24 steals in his career so far. The attempt rate came down to 21%. > 2024: 30% attempt%, 75% success% > 2025: 29% attempt%, 74% success% > 2026: 21% attempt%, 67% success% That's a bit of a red flag to me. He does not run super fast with 61st-percentile sprint speed. So the arrow is pointing DOWN on the steals. Maybe it'll snap back up, who knows, but getting thrown out a third of the time won't boost confidence in the coaching staff. I'd be a bit worried about him repeating as a sure-fire 20-steal guy next year. **Final Thoughts** So I'm left with a guy with a bad batting average projection and *questionable* speed. I don't think he'll swipe less than 15 bases or anything like that, but that number is going in the wrong direction. You could get a bad variance season with Neto where he hits .230, hits 24 homers, and steals 17 bags. That's not all that great, and there really aren't many good hitters behind him to help him replicate that elite run-scoring season. I find myself once again a bit down on Neto. But how low can you possibly rank a guy who has gone 20-20 (easily) for three straight years and is still just 25 years old? Not very low! But I think his ceiling is really capped by the K%, chase rate, and team context. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** The new #1 player --- ### Mike Trout > Age: 35 > Position: OF ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-52.png) 272 games played in the last two years for Trout. So that's a pleasant surprise, not that it's done the Angels much good. Trout did earn a 3.3 WAR in 2026, so he's still capable and out there adding to his resume. 22 more bombs added to his Hall of Fame resume, and he stole double-digit bags for the first time since 2019\. It was his best WAR season since 2022 (six wins in 122 games). But you can see the limitations. A batting average below .240 the last two seasons, a non-elite 3.5% HR% in this most recent season. The strikeout rate got better, but it was still 26%, so he's down on strikes more than a quarter of the time. Trout has been excellent with a higher K% in the past, but he's just not the guy he used to be, and he's played like a mid-20s home run bat in his latest years. Everything is still quite good. There's really nothing in the profile to show that he's deteriorated. - 108 EV90 - 16% Brl% - .379 xwOBA - .311 BABIP - 83rd percentile sprint speed - 114.6 max EV One of the greatest baseball players to ever do it. But you would have thought he'd have done more with the health he's had the last two seasons. The EVs were higher overall (108 EV90) than on fly balls (106), and he didn't get to too many air pulls (15%). He converted just 37.5% of his barrels for homers, pulling just 34% of them. So he's not been efficient on his high EV batted balls. His stolen base attempt rate was 11%, which came way up from the 1% in 2025 when the red light was engaged. I don't see why they'd force any limitations on him at this point in his career; Trout's probably free to do what he wants to do. His 15% BB% gives him plenty of chances to steal, but it seems like he's more opportunistic with those rather than trying to steal every chance he gets. Trouty hasn't come close to a .250 batting average since 2023, so that part of his game seems to be over. He's an average liability, but he will always be able to take the walk, so the OBP is good. He'll turn 36 in August. Superstars age more gracefully than the normies (calling professional athletes normies is funny, but you get it), but they aren't immune to the realities of the world. I suppose it's a good sign that he hasn't been on the IL much the last two years, but is it right to bet on another 120+ game season? Doesn't seem like it to me. And we've seen that even in the outcome where he plays 130 games, he's not a super valuable fantasy asset. But I don't know, man! I'm seeing a lot of good here. If the EV stuff stays steady next year, I think he can do a lot better than 22 homers. Of all the hitters with 600+ PA and a 15%+ Brl%, he had the fewest home runs by far. 1. Schwarber 45 2. Alonso 43 3. Alvarez 42 4. Ohtani 30 5. Wood 30 6. Elly 30 7. Trout 22 He should convert a higher rate of barrels into homers next year, but that's all assuming the added year of age only takes a small toll in 2027. .254 xBA, .379 xwOBA, and an improved K%. I think Trout might end up at a price that makes a lot of sense to be on the "buy side" of. Outfielders in the later rounds are very replaceable. If your league has IL spots, you'll profit off a Trout pick assuming he can manage another 120 game season. The ceiling isn't there anymore, but the floor will stay pretty high on a per-game basis just because he is freakin' Mike Trout. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** I think this is right: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-53.png) I'll always opt for younger, high-upside dudes, but Trout can't end up too far down my list. --- ### Denzer Guzman > Age: **23** > Position: **3B** It's tough to even pick the third Angels hitter to write up. I try to do these in order of what I think the ADP will be. And after Neto and Trout, it's tough to know who comes next. The roster is very much in flux. They have some very interesting young guys, who we covered in the Angels prospect preview podcast. But they shipped away some veterans at the 2026 deadline. It's a tough roster to project until we get into spring. And that could all be muddied up massively by the lockout. We might have no idea what this Opening Day lineup will look like until very late. Guzman graduated from prospect status this year, getting to the Majors for 87 games. He hit .219/.266/.336\. That's a .601 OPS with eight homers, two steals, a 26% K%, and a 5.5% BB%. The minor league fScores: - 105 Power - 96 Speed - 104 Hit Tool - 102 Discipline - 103 overall Those are pretty strong grades. But he wasn't a highly touted, long-awaited prospect. He broke out in AAA in 2026 with a .336/.403/.571 slash line, but that's in the PCL, so it's grain of salt city. The best thing we can do is just evaluate the tools at the Major League level. **Power** The numbers aren't great here. A decent 110.2 max EV, but 103.6 on the 90th, and 100.8 on his fly balls. He posted a 4.8% Brl% and didn't get too many balls into the air, with a 46% GB%. He didn't have that problem in AAA with a 40% GB% and 8.3% Brl%. So it was better there in terms of getting the ball to an angle where it could go over some dudes' heads. Middling pull rate stuff: 16% Air Pull% in both AAA and MLB. There's room to grow on this stuff since he's only 22\. The EV is in there somewhere; he has the bat speed to make it happen (70th percentile or so). He's shorter, though. 6'1'' 190 pound guy, maybe some added muscle could help facilitate more homers. The read for right now is like 12-15 homers, probably. **Speed** Not a fast runner (55th percentile sprint). Just 11 steals in 145 games between MiLB and MLB last year with an 11% attempt rate and 69% success rate. We don't like those numbers at all. The attempt rate is about average, but that's a very low success rate. He was caught a third of the time when running basically, so without the foot speed, you could see a red light get turned on. **Plate Discipline** 80% Zone Contact% in the Majors. A 53% Swing%, which is fine. He chased 34% of the time, so this stuff is all middling. He struck out 26% of the time in the Majors, and the overall contact rate at 73% says that's about right. **Final Thoughts** We aren't left with much to like. The speed doesn't seem to be a thing, he's nothing special in plate discipline, and the power has questions as well. I could see him break out a bit in power since he had that max EV and good bat speed. But there's a lot of work to do. **Projection** *Still to come.* We don't even know he'll be in the Opening Day lineup. I think he will, but there are no guarantees. Maybe they bulk up in free agency this year and sign a couple of infielders that make it tougher for Guzman. **Rank** I'll take him over Tovar and Norby because at least there's youth and potential here. But I don't think Guzman is heading toward being a top 350 guy ahead of the 2027 season. --- ### Nolan Schanuel > Age: **25** > Position: **1B** ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-54.png) Schanuel got to the Major Leagues almost immediately aftere being drafted, and has more or less been the same guy ever since. He's an elite contact bat who is patient and can take some walks. An injury ended his 2026 season early, but it wasn't going to be anything special. He hit .273/.348/.383 with seven homers and one steal. His home run rate is about 2% for his career, which puts him around 13 homers per year. He's stolen 16 bags in his career and has hit right around .265\. His bat speed is below average, he's not a runner, and we're starting to wonder what the point of the guy is? He plays first base, an easy position to replace, and he's just not making an impact with the bat. There are worse hitters, certainly. A .706 OPS in 2026 isn't a team-killer, and it was better in 2025\. So we can buy him is a .730 OPS guy with maybe 15 homers and 3-5 steals. He's better in OBP leagues since he takes a walk about 10% of the time and rarely gives away a PA to the walk. For deep OBP/points leagues, there's a case to be made. But we're far enough into his career, and can see the raw skills, so we know that there's no real chance he ever becomes a top 400 fantasy player. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** Bottom of the list. He outperformed Ezequiel Tovar last year, but I'd rather bet on something happening for Tovar, who at least has some power and speed buried in there. --- ### Christian Moore > Age: **24** > Position: **2B** The Angels used the #8 overall pick in 2024 on Moore. He too got to the Majors really quickly, playing 53 games in 2025 before having to go back to the minors. He spent time in both the minors and Majors in 2026, but so far it's a very bleak picture: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-55.png) He's hit .193 in his half-season's worth of playing time at the highest level. We don't want to just look at batting average, obviously, but that number does tell you quite a bit by itself. **Power** The bat speed wasn't good in 2026\. It was around league average, but we want a lot more than that from a young hopeful. His EVs aren't in the pits, but not great, either: - 104.6 EV90 - 102.6 EV90 on fly balls - 107.3 max EV (smaller sample) - 9.2% Brl% There's still time to tap into something, but for right now it doesn't make a lot of sense why this guy was a top ten pick. The physical tools don't seem to be there. **Speed** He is pretty fast, but has hardly been on base (.270 career OBP) to do anything with the speed. Four steals in his career, 10% attempt rate. That speed could eventually play into some steals if he can find his way on base. But this isn't some burner who is primed to steal 30+ bags if he can get regular reps. **Plate Discipline** He swung 51% of the time and chased 31% of the time. That stuff's fine. He walked 7.5% of the time, which is higher than I expected for a guy who has done this little damage with the bat. You'd think pitchers would be challenging him in the zone a ton until he proves he can do something. So the discipline stuff is fine in terms of walks. But his 33% K% in 2026 was the death of the guy. The good news there is an 82% Zone-Contact%. That doesn't match up at all with his overall 68% Contact%. It's a pretty good zone contact, but bad overall. So when he was chasing, it was going horribly. He should probably be a little more patient and really focus on only swinging at pitches in the zone. Easier said than done, of course. **Final Thoughts** It's hard to give up on a #8 overall pick with less than 500 PAs on his record. He has not seen much time at all in the minors, and maybe that's what really screwed him up. In AAA last year, he hit .302/.431/.512 with a .943 OPS, 11 homers, and 14 steals. That caught him the call-up, but he got exposed again by MLB pitching. So maybe he needs more time in the minors? But the PCL is tough for development, or at least for evaluation since it's such a weird league. I'd choose to be more on the buy side of Christian Moore because of the previous pedigree, good minor league numbers, and age. But he's shown exactly nothing to get excited about in his Major League time. This isn't a super tooled-out prospect who just hasn't adjusted to MLB pitching yet. I think it's a thin path to fantasy relevance for Moore, but don't forget about him yet. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** Ahead of Norby/Tovar, but behind Guzman, who I believe has a higher floor. --- After those names, it's a bunch of platooning and kind of crappy MLB players that have no reasonable claim to a job out of the gate. There's going to be a lot of turnover and uncertainty in the lineup. It's not a pretty situation, but they do have a pretty decent farm system that we discussed in the podcast you'll see below. But a few quick hitters on the remaining guys. ### Wade Meckler > Age: **26** > Position: **OF** It took him a long time to get any run in the Majors, and this year it was mostly out of necessity because the Angels were so stinky. But he has a decent minor league resume: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-66.png) .320 is nice, 22 homers and 35 steals in 1,277 PAs is not. A lot of that damage was done in the PCL, but he put up high OPS marks in the lower minors as well. He took the high batting average with him to the Majors, hitting .300 in 98 games: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-67.png) So he was mostly the same guy we saw in the minors. High batting average, not much power or speed. **Power** His EVs are terrible. 99.9 EV90, 105.8 max. 2.9% Brl%. No real power to speak of. **Speed** Never more than an 11% attempt rate in the minors, just 8% in the Majors. He was on base enough to attempt eight steals and succeed on all of them. **Discipline** 89% Zone-Contactt%, 44% Swing%, 23% Chase%, 18.7% K%, 9.5% BB% What we have here is a mature hitter with good knowledge of the strike zone. The discipline is very strong. But the physical size, strength, speed, tools, etc. don't get much from that. He's not giving away many plate appearances. He'll put together solid ABs, but when the bat gets to the ball, it's usually either a single or an out. His .369 BABIP is unrepeatable as well. So the xBA was .262\. That's a huge gap from the .300 actual. That 37-point gap makes him fifth "luckiest" in the league: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-68.png) Some guys can do this every year. **Chandler Simpson** is certainly someone who will have this kind of gap routinely with his elite speed and approach that is designed to turn weakly struck balls into hits. But that's not who Wade Meckler is. He is fast (87th percentile sprint speed), and he did hit mostly ground balls (54%), and those two things will turn into you beating your xBA. So a .320 BABIP is reasonable to expect, but things are definitely going to come down for Meckler in the AVG front. There's also his weak bat speed, which I didn't cite yet but it's obvious from the home run totals in his career and the EVs I showed. Very, very low bat speed. **Final Thoughts** He's not a big league caliber athlete. Many guys succeed without that, and maybe he will too. But there's no real path to 20+ HR+SB, I don't think, and the playing time is very questionable. I don't think the Angels envisioned needing Wade Meckler playing for them every day, so there will be many ways he could lose his job. Not a standard fantasy league asset, clearly. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** He's kinda like Nolan Schanuel with a few more steals but less job security. So I'm putting him last. --- A problem I often run into is that I go way deeper on the first handful of teams I do. So I end up going 8-10 hitters deep at the beginning, and then I get tired out by the second half of the league, and I start restricting myself to only the guys I know will be around the top 400\. That leads me to rank guys like Meckler when I wouldn't have if the Angels came later in the series. So we'll have to clean up the ranks when we get closer to draft season. Or maybe I'll just do my best to cover every player who projects to play 130+ games, or something like that. --- ### Moises Ballesteros > Age: 23 > Position: C/DH Ballesteros was rostered in your league early in the season. He was tearing it up for the Cubs in April with an OPS of 1.012 and five bombs. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-69.png) Then he hit .179/.249/.248 (a .497 OPS) the rest of the way. He was sent back to AAA and then traded to the Angels at the deadline. [**Check out the trade atlas app I made here**](https://mlb-trade-atlas.swifteel3.chatgpt.site/?ref=mlbdatawarehouse.com). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-70.png) The return shows that the Cubs had given up on him. He's a catcher by trade, but a bad one, so his only real shot at PT with the Cubs was with the bat. And once the offense stopped like it did in May, it was curtains. His bat speed is mediocre. His zone contact rate was 83%, which is fine, but a lot worse than what it was in the minors, and he doesn't have enough raw power to make it work. His EV90 overall was 104.7, on fly balls it was 102.3\. Barrel rate of 8.4%, K% of 23.3%. Bad launch angles, no speed. He's aggressive at the plate, both in the zone and out, so he chased a lot. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-71.png) There are simply a lot of problems with Ballesteros. He got the job done in the minors, but the physical tools don't seem to be there to handle Major League pitching, and unless he can really get better as a catcher, I don't see why any big league team would want him in the lineup. But he's the slated Opening Day catcher, so maybe he'll revive his career a bit next year with the new team. At least you can see there's nothing in the profile that is absolutely awful and unfixable. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** *I don't think I'm even going to bother* That's all I can come up with on the hitter side. I'm guessing this roster will look different by March than it does now, so we'll come back to revisit it. --- # Pitchers First of all, let's cover this coaching change. They fired Mike Maddux and company on August 11th. I did a rudimentary check on ERA & K-BB% before and after: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-57.png) The whole team ERA went from 4.61 before to 3.15 after. That's a massive shift. So I think the best explanation is: 1. Natural regression (Grayson/Johnson weren't going to be that bad for that long no matter who was coaching) 2. Luck 3. Coaching changes that actually helped How much weight goes to each? We'll probably never know. But the flags light up when you go from one of the worst pitching staffs in the league by ERA to one of the best right after a coaching change. Everybody needs to be examined individually. ### Reid Detmers > Age: **27** We have always known that Detmers has talent. He was a highly touted prospect, and he's had runs of success in the past. The strikeout rate has always been pretty good; he's never had a ***huge*** walk problem, and he was a good reliever in 2025 after they chose that path for him that season. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-56.png) I liked the idea of drafting Detmers last year, but didn't see a 3.36 ERA and 1.04 WHIP coming. I'm less surprised at those numbers than I am at the 185 innings. That's a +122 on the innings, and he only got better as the year went on. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-58.png) Early on he looked pretty good but had some bad outings in there to the point where you didn't know if he was going to stick, and you certainly didn't think he'd be doing much super late in the season since he was getting to last year's innings total by the middle of the year. But he shoved, man. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-59.png) 22% K-BB%, 14.3% SwStr%, 33.9% Ball%, .605 OPS against. He did it all. Whiffs, strikes, soft contact, he was the full package. We look at the pitch mix: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-60.png) Plenty of fastballs from the lefties. It's not the greatest fastball in the world, that's always been a question mark with him. That was probably the biggest reason to doubt he could ever succeed as a starter; he was too dependent on the breaking balls for success. But a 49% Strike% and 10.9% SwStr% and 1o8 MLB DW grade on the fastball is more than enough to carry a guy when he has such good secondaries. And such good secondaries he has! 119 grade on the slider ([**a results-based stat, read how those work here**](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/p/introducing-mlb-dw-pitch-grades)). That's one of the best in the game. It was only beaten by Cease, Jones, Burns, Sanchez, and Sheehan among SPs. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-61.png) Plus a really good curveball that had a ridiculous 59% Strike% and 127 MLB DW grade. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-62.png) So a good fastball and two elite breaking pitches, plus overall elite numbers and an 180 inning season. It's going to be tough not to rank Detmers very aggressively. I think people will be somewhat hesitant to buy in. He's been so untrustworthy for so long, and the Angels have a very poor track record at developing and maintaining pitchers, that a lot of people want to buy him as an SP2-SP3\. But if we're just looking at the 2026 season, he's very much worth that kind of pick. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** Easily the #1, and I think he'll stay there for a bit. --- ### Walbert Urena > Age: **23** This guy added more velo from one season to the next than anybody you'll ever see. Minor leagues in 2025 = 92mph four-seam fastball Major leagues in 2026 = 98mph four-seam fastball The four-seamer isn't the featured pitch, as we'll see, but +6mph tells you the story. He threw the sinker under 95mph in 2025 and ramped it up 98 in 2026\. Massive velo gains, and that helped him become a solidified MLB starter after being someone literally nobody was thinking about prior to 2026. I'm not sure what happened. If he could add that much velo, why wouldn't he have done it before 2026? Can you really just make a tweak and add that much? Can he sustain it? Is his arm about to blow up? Many questions with Urena. But let's just focus on 2026\. First of all, his 2.97 ERA doesn't match with the 4.18 SIERA. His K-BB% was weak at 11.8%. It was not an impressive strikeout rate and a pretty bad walk rate. He benefited a bit from a .263 BABIP. That's all bad. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-64.png) K-BB% remains one of the best predictive pitching stats in the game. It's endurance has been incredible. New data capturing and computational advances have generated dozens of new stats for us over the last few years. And yet, very few of them can compare to K-BB%, which we've had for decades. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-63.png) So the 12% there makes you nervous. But K% and BB% are only two of the three inputs into SIERA/FIP. The third thing is home run suppression. And this is where Urena shines like few others. His high-90s sinker got the ball on the ground on 63% of batted balls. Plus he throws a changeup (58% GB%) to make up another third of his usage. He's a 56% GB% pitcher, one of the highest in the league. So he's striking out about a fourth of hitters, walking a tenth, leaving 65% of batters faced that are putting a ball in play, and almost 60% of those plate appearances result in a ball that has literally zero chance of going over the fence. Urena gave up 10 homers all year. His 0.61 HR/9 was only bested by Fried, Clay Holmes, Sale, Andrew Alvarez, and Dylan Cease. And it's repeatable since he's throwing 67% changeups and heavy sinkers. Urena is the new **Jose Soriano** in Los Angeles. Except he has a better non-fastball pitch, the changeup. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-65.png) A 19% SwStr% on that bad boy with a 132 MLB DW grade. A .221 xwOBA. Again I'll say, you have almost no chance of hitting a homer two-thirds of the time this guy throws a pitch at you. So yeah, I think we can see Walbert mostly repeat what he did in 2026\. Certainly some regression on the ERA, he's not going for a sub-three ERA with this approach, but he's going to beat his SIERA every year with this unique approach and elite velo. But is there upside for more? Because a 3.30 ERA with a bad WHIP driven by the walks and contact allowed aren't game-breaking, and a bad BABIP/luck season could turn into a pretty ugly ERA like we saw with his former teammate Soriano. I'm saying there is upside. He's had this elite velo for only one year. He has job security now and a coaching staff that has done a pretty good job at proving themselves as an improvement in the two months they had their jobs. This live arm could turn into something. Maybe he tweaks the four-seamer a bit and throws it more - generating more whiffs. I wouldn't really advise that, I think the changeup + sinker approach makes sense, but this isn't an old veteran who isn't still flexible to try some different things. I'm a K% guy. You won't find me saying too many good things about guys projecting below a 24% K%. But these types are the exception. Give me the elite GB% guys for ERA help, and I'll fix my WHIP with earlier-round picks. I'm a big Walbert Urena guy. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** #2 behind Detmers. Easily ahead of the Rockies guys. --- ### Yusei Kikuchi > Age: **35** ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-72.png) Kikuchi missed more than half the 2026 season and came back as a 35 year old to deliver a 4.92 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 12% K-BB%, and 4.34 SIERA over 67.2 innings. He had some moments, but overall the numbers were not even 15-team league worthy. It's not been a good Angels career for Kikuchi. Mostly, this guy has been a bad pitcher other than that nice sprint with the Astros in 2024 that got him this big contract in LA. For his Angels career: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-73.png) Just another bad contract given out by the Angels. And I think Kikuchi just might be too old to change. He did get hurt by a .338 BABIP in 2026\. So that explains why the SIERA was better than the ERA. Maybe he'll figure out a way to get through a full season and not be a total disaster. Let's look at the pitch mix: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-74.png) He's never had a good fastball, and that's not changing now. But it did work okay this year on 482 offerings. The 96.6 Stuff+ isn't good, and the 102 MLB DW grade is hardly above average. But somehow he generated a 46% GB%, 16% FB%, and consequently no homers on it. So he located it well, I guess. The slider was always his money pitch, and it was okay. A 13.2% SwStr% is three points below the league average for a slider. Those benchmarks are important to know. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-75.png) You're looking for upper-teens in SwStr% from a slider, and Kikuchi didn't have that. It got hit pretty hard too with a .339 xwOBA and three homers on 303 pitches. And then a splitter that is good for mixing it up, but it wasn't very good. There are very few left-handers that throw splitters, just as a potentially interesting side note. Seven in all last year, three of whom are Japanese, and two of which are Americans who played in either Japan (Griffin) or Korea (Hart). Aroldis Chapman said once that he wants to play in Japan after his MLB career is over, leaving us with **Brent Headrick** who is from Illinois and must just be a contrarian. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-76.png) But I've said enough about Kikuchi. He looks like a league-average pitcher at best who is well, well past his prime years. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** I suppose I'd take him over the Rockies guys, but I'd probably rather draft some upside with Dollander over Kikuchi. So that's where he goes. --- ### Grayson Rodriguez > Age: 27 If it's possible to have a successful season with a 6.02 ERA, that's what we saw happen with G-Rod. He made 20 starts and threw 99 big league innings, which was a moral victory for the guy. His career looked pretty much over after all of the injuries and the trade for Taylor Friggin Ward, but at least he proved that he can stay healthy for some length of time. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-77.png) Any ERA above 6 is bound to have a much lower SIERA, and we saw that with his 4.68 SIERA mark. That's still not good; in fact, it's near the upper bound of how high SIERA will go. The 19.1% K% and 9.7% BB% makes for a very poor K-BB%. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-78.png) He also didn't keep the ball on the ground. He got hit super hard with a .361 xwOBA, and gave up a 1.55 HR/9\. It's all bad for Grayson, whose talent seems to have been zapped by the injuries. This isn't a guy with great stuff anymore. An 11.6% SwStr%, 99 Stuff+, and 47% Strike%. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-79.png) The fastball is 96, which would have been cool ten years ago, but it's not getting by many bats at this point. 11 bombs on that four-seamer, .389 xwOBA. The changeup and slider were pretty good, but he doesn't seem to have the heater to set them up with. He was hit hard by righties and lefties alike. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-80.png) So I don't see much of a path to improvement. I suppose the super rare healthy offseason could generate some improvements, but he just doesn't seem to have the stuff to create success against this level of competition. And on top of that, he's still a very injury-prone player. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** He's going behind Kikuchi. I just don't see it happening. At least Kikuchi has some funkiness to him and some success in his past. ### Ryan Johnson > Age: 24 Funky delivery! You watch the guy and can see why hitters might have some trouble. Here's a video of it from Dynasty\_Digest on X. > Ryan Johnson has made the Angels opening day roster without spending a day in the minors. He had an impressive outing yesterday where he struck out 4 in 2 innings of work and has looked great all spring. > > Johnson has a deep pitch mix with a funky delivery, he leads with his… [pic.twitter.com/vulJ4h6B7f](https://t.co/vulJ4h6B7f?ref=mlbdatawarehouse.com) > > — TheDynastyDigest (@Dynasty\_Digest) [March 25, 2025](https://x.com/Dynasty%5FDigest/status/1904644332860346751?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=mlbdatawarehouse.com) But the numbers were no bueno overall. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-81.png) The 5.04 ERA came front-loaded. From his start on August 6th on, he compiled a 2.83 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP. But even over that time it was an 18.6% K% and 10.2% BB%. So he was pretty lucky in that time. That weird delivery can "create some luck", which is a dumb expression because luck by definition can't be created, but you get it. He kept the xwOBA around league average (.321) after that date. But didn't get whiffs (9.8% SwStr%) and allowed a .245 BABIP, which is very low. He's a fly ball pitcher who throws four pitches pretty evenly: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-82.png) He did give up 18 homers, which is a bunch. I think he'll be a home run guy with the 35% FB% (a huge number), but there's room for improvement on his 1.62 HR/9\. That's a natural regression candidate number, not a lot of guys give up a 1.6 HR/9 for very long, even if they're bad. His minor league numbers were great in six starts: 2.51 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 33% K%, 3.5% BB%. You can see why the Angels called him up and stuck with him, and maybe they figured something out late. But we're relying on kind of a gimicky delivery with none of the underlying numbers leaving us feeling great. The league will see him more, they'll get the tape, they'll have his simulated delivery in their machines, and I think he'll struggle to have much success. At the end of the day, you need a good K-BB% to be successful over the long haul. And Johnson is at 8% for his big league career. **Projection** *Still to come* **Rank** He's young and is deceptive in his delivery. That gives me some thinking that they could tinker with him and figure some stuff out. And maybe we saw that late in in 2026 already. I'll put him in above Kikuchi for now. --- # Minor Leaguers to Know This is one of the top organizations for redraft prospects. They do not have a great big league roster right now, and they're notorious for moving minor leagues super fast. Maybe too fast. Maybe that will change with new leadership, but I think we'll see these guys in 2027: - **Tyler Bremner (SP)**: One of the top pitching prospects in the game and you'll absolutely see him debut by mid-season if he's healthy - **Arjun Nimmala (SS):** Came over in the Jose Soriano trade, hasn't reached AAA yet, but a very enticing infield prospect who I think we'll see at 2B or 3B before too long - **Raudi Rodriguez (OF):** Speedster with good discipline who has already reached AAA, and there are a few spots wide open in that outfield. Potential Opening Day guy. Full breakdown of the top 20 prospects right here: