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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Well, yesterday was super disappointing. deGrom getting pulled for a tricep in the second inning, when he already had three Ks, was just a bummer. It’s sad, man, that that guy had so much potential to just be an all-time pitcher, and we’ll never know what he really, really could have been because of all his arm issues over the years. Disappointing, but it is what it is. I ended up making the bet after I’d put the card out. I saw Trent make a bet on a NRFI for the Philly game last night. If you know anything about Trent and follow him on X, the guy’s an all-time mush. I went and bet Schwarber to go yard first at-bat. Wish I could have got that out sooner, but I didn’t see it until right before the game, but help make up for my deGrom loss.

So I have to admit, Sandy at 5.5 Ks today really has me intrigued. I'm super shocked that he's only at this line, considering he just put eight up on the Angels and one of these faced higher K-rate teams in the league. He's been pretty successful this year. We project him for 6.36 today on a 5.5 line, and so we're gonna take a shot here. Over his last five games, he’s got his putaway rate up to 18% at 12% swinging straight rate against the number one key rate in the team. We’re getting 5.5 at -125. It’s too good to pass up.

Sandy Alcantara MIA O 5.5k -125 1u FD

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Weather

Ten-game slate, and no weather concerns. We’re in the clear for this beautiful Friday night in the US of A. I guess there’s a game in Canada, so shout-out to Canada too, I guess.

Game Data

It’s a low projected run-scoring night. Nobody is above 5.3 implied runs, although that could change. There are five spots standing above the rest in raw implication:

Braves vs. Brandon Pfaadt

Very interesting spot here. Pfaadt has made eight starts since getting back in the Arizona rotation. And he has a 1.32 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP. That’s the good news, and we’re hoping it will take down the ownership on the Braves. I say that because the underlying stuff is bad:

• 12.4% K%

• 3.8% BB%

• 3% HR/FB

Pfaadt has long had trouble with left handed power, but somehow he’s managed to only give up one homer in these eight starts. The GB% is fine (47%), but the 3% HR/FB is totally fake and presents a great spot to buy in on some Braves left-handed power. That’s mainly Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson.

Maybe Pfaadt has found some secret formula to keep the hard hit balls out of the air. He’s allowed just a 10% Air Pull% during this stretch and a .244 xwOBA. He has consistently missed hard contact. But that’s not something we want to rely on as predictive. I think it could unravel for Pfaadt, and the markets like the Braves here a lot relative to the rest of the slate.

Athletics vs. Kumar Rocker

Rocker is a blow-up risk, but he also goes out there from time to time and dominates with his slider. It’s a risky spot in Sacramento with his 36% GB%, there are multiple homers on the table in this spot.

But who is going to hit them for the Athletics? They don’t hit fly balls. Only Soderstrom has a good xwOBA against righties this year:

I like Soderstrom and Butler as one-offs, but this lineup just doesn’t seem to have stack-worthy upside right now.

Rays vs. Chris Bassitt

The return of Bassitt! He hasn’t been seen in the Majors since June 3rd. He had a 5.27 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 14% K%, and 8% BB% before getting hurt. He does not appear to be good. He built up to six innings in his rehab, so the Rays should see a good bit of him.

The problem for DFS is that the prices are through the roof after the Rays played a couple series in Colorado and Sacramento.

Yandy’s $5.3K, Caminero $6.3K, Aranda $4.5K, Hicks $4.3K, Simpson $4.1K, Mullins $4.5K. These aren’t good prices in a game in Tampa Bay. But Bassitt is one of the more hittable pitchers on the slate, so I can get into some Rays minis.

Dodgers vs. Robert Gasser

Another big NL showdown in LA. The Dodgers are a -193 favorite behind Yamamoto. The O/U is just 7.5.

Gasser has been serviceable for the Brewers, because nobody is allowed to pitch bad on that team. 17.1% K-BB%, .311 xwOBA, 5.7% Brl% since June 1st. Not a great stack spot for the Dodgers

Rangers vs. Jump

Jump’s game log is a doozy.

He’s coming off of two pretty good starts in a row now. He didn’t give up a homer in his first six starts, and then gave up seven in his next five starts, and now he hasn’t given up any in his last three starts.

Typical rookie pitcher with questionable command. It’s boom-or-bust. I don’t think it’s a spot to stack the Rangers a ton, but you can mix in some of those. Good news for Texas is that the Athletics have the worst bullpen on the slate by the way I grade it:

The Rangers are healthy and in pretty good offensive form right now, I’ll like a few guys, but I don’t want to go crazy on stacking against Jump, because he can be very good.

Let’s sort it by implied total above season-average run scoring:

Angels vs. Seth Lugo

Bad offense, bad pitcher. Tough spot to choose. Lugo’s given up 12 bombs in his last 12 starts and has a 7.7% K-BB%. The Angels lineup doesn’t have much juice, but they offer some value.

Meckler/Schanuel/Ballesteros are interesting, and I don’t think we’ll get much ownership on the upside of Trout & Neto.

Royals vs. Grayson Rodriguez

Really bad Royals lineup against G-Rod who has pitched pretty well his last three starts.

It’s not great stuff, but he’s not the same dude he was early in the year when he wasn’t getting strikeouts and getting hit extremely hard.

He has still gotten hit hard in these last four starts (.407 xwOBA, 5 HR). I like the one-offs from KC like Jensen and Witt. And there’s some value in Massey/Perez/Collins as well:

Mets vs. Andrew Alvarez

About 75-80 pitches coming from Alvarez if things go decently well, and the Mets with their pretty hot offense get to face a bad bullpen. And Alvarez isn’t great in his own right.

4.3% K-BB%, 4.69 JA SIERA. I’ve been on the Mets a lot lately, and I will be back there tonight.

Not a lot to like in the Nats bullpen, although they do rank outside of the bottom five tonight.

Yankees vs. Shane Bieber

This would be a stack spot if the Yankees had Judge and the regulars. But they don’t, and they haven’t scored runs in a long time.

Bieber has been mostly bad this year. 4.6% K-BB%, 44% GB%, .398 xwOBA allowed.

But it’s another spot where you just don’t know which Yankees players to push, and they’re on the road here with the Blue Jays having a decent bullpen.

A couple more that the projections like:

Nationals vs. Robert Stock

Stock has been forced into the Mets rotation and he just got absolutely trucked by the Pirates in his last start.

There are worse pitchers. At least he can get whiffs, but a 37% GB% with the .360 xwOBA show that he can give up the dinger. The Nats, somehow, haven’t missed a beat offensively with Wood out, and they have some cheap guys swinging good bats right now.

Abimelec Ortiz should be popular tonight. He’s hitting bombs daily lately and remains at $2300. Great play there. The rest of the lineup is hard to get excited about. I do like Jacob Young even though he’s hitting 9th, and CJ Abrams has been one of the best fantasy bats in the league since he got hot again in July.

Mariners vs. Peter Lambert

Just some cheap bats here in the Seattle lineup, and the M’s always get a boost when outside of Seattle. But Lambert has been pretty good.

14.2% K-BB%, 3.64 JA SIERA. He’s fine. The projections like the prices on the Mariners, but how often have they come through as a full stack? Not often, right?

The prices on Young, Canzone, Naylor, and Donovan are just too cheap to me.

So it’s a tough night for stacking. No individual spot really stands out. Here’s where I’m landing:

1. Braves vs. Pfaadt

2. Mets vs. Alvarez

3. Rays vs. Bassitt

4. Rangers vs. Jump

5. Yankees vs. Bieber

But there are a lot of different ways you can go tonight. With no team standing out on the implication board, I think it’s reasonable to avoid the full stacks tonight and just play a bunch of the best plays from different spots.

Pitchers

Studs

Ordering this screenshot by price:

Chris Sale ($10,700) at home is a cash spot. Top value of these stud pitchers at 1.9x. The D’Backs make a lot of contact, but they do most of their damage at home:

Just a .678 OPS on the road with a significantly higher K%. Sale is probably my SP1 tonight.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500) vs. MIL

The Brewers are middle-of-the-road offense, all things considered. They don’t hit homers, their K% is middling. So Yamamoto is fine.

Yamamoto lacks upside, though. He hasn’t had more than seven strikeouts in his last five starts and has just a 23.8% K% on the year. He’s a floor play rather than a ceiling play.

I don’t really get the high ownership on him. I like Sale a lot better, and he’s well behind Gavin Williams in projection, too.

Gavin Williams ($10,200) vs. SD

Padres since July 1st has been a very good lineup. A K% below 20%, a .768 OPS (.780 vs. righties).

Merrill, France, Tatis, and Rengifo have been very good, and Machado and Cronenworth aren’t slouches either.

Tough spot for Williams, but he does have a freaking 36% K% and 6.3% BB% in his last 12 starts. It would be better if this game were in San Diego where we aren’t afraid of the long ball, but it’s in Cleveland. It’s far from an ideal spot for Williams, but you can’t leave off a guy with this kind of strikeout ability.

Gerrit Cole $9,700 vs. TOR

Not a good strikeout spot for Cole. This Blue Jays lineup makes so much contact. Their lineup averages out to a sub-17% K%. That’s as low as you’ll typically find in the Majors.

I have just a 4.8-strikeout projection on Cole. The prop is at 4.5, so that tells you something as well. Cole can get through seven innings and win, like Tolle did last night, but it’s not a good spot at all for his ceiling because strikeouts are so important on DraftKings.

Mid Range

Here are the $7000-$9500 options, ordered by projection:

Gage Jump ($7,000) vs. Rangers

I’ve got Jump for 16.5 points, The Bat X has him at 15.4. So we both agree he’s well above a 2x projection here. The risk is that he has a bad home run game at home, which he’s at a couple of. But generally, he’s been pretty good. He’s gone 10 of 14 starts without giving up a homer, and his HR/9% is under 0.9 for the year.

Plus he has some strikeout upside. We’ve seen that lately. This Texas lineup can strike out:

This is a sneaky, sneaky spot to use Jump in. Limit it to tourneys, but I’m pretty interested here at low ownership.

Peter Lambert ($9000) vs. Mariners

Hefty price for Lambert. Not as much strikeout in the M’s lineup with having sent Colt Emerson back down. Raleigh is the only very high K% (against rightie) in this spot. With the studs we have $1-$2K above in price, I don’t see much reason to use a lot of Lambert. I don’t see the ceiling being there to justify the price.

Landen Roupp ($7500) vs. Rockies

Roupp at home against the Rockies. That’s about as good as it gets for Roupp.

More strikeouts at home, a lower ERA, a much lower WHIP. It’s not a good Rockies lineup, especially away from home.

I could see using Roupp even in cash if there was an expensive stack we really liked. I don’t think that’s the right move tonight, but Roupp in tourneys is pretty strong.

The rest of this group projects very poorly and I have no good reason to play any of them. George Kirby is on the road, Gasser up against the Rockies with a potential quick hook, Pfaadt massively over-performing and up agains the top implied run total. Michael King in a spot where he’ll struggle to even get four strikeouts.

Cheap Options

Looking for those punt options down here.

We have three options in my view. I’d order them like this:

Grayson Rodriguez ($5,700) vs. KC

Last three outings: 15 points vs. HOU, 21 points vs. BAL, 14 points vs. MIA

Nothing you have to have, but good returns at $5700. And this is a very soft matchup with the Royals. That said, the Royals have a lower team K% at 19%:

I think Grayson is a mass entry mix-in when going to some expensive bats at best. There’s nobody threatening for cash consideration down here, not even close. But I do like that we’ve seen 6+ strikeouts from Grayson in each of the last three and the fastball velo has trended upward to make sense of that.

Kyle Freeland ($5,500) vs. SF

Somehow this guy has been worse on the road. 7.81 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. I’m not sure why we’d ever consider him, but he is in the nut spot in San Fran.

Plus he has five starts at 20+ points this year, so he has potential 4x upside if things all go perfectly. But at the end of the day, I don’t think it’s super wise. I’d rather play Grayson, I think. The Giants for all of their problems don’t strike out a ton. I think like 14 points is a best-case for Freeland here.

Seth Lugo ($6,900) vs. LAA

The Angels always bring some SP ownership with them. It’s probably the worst lineup on the slate.

But is Lugo good enough to take advantage? He has had two pretty good starts in his last four.

But he has a 10% K-BB% on the year with an 18% K%.

I have him for 13.2 points; The Bat has him at 14.0. That would be fine for the price; he’s another guy you could use if you’re loading up on bats.

Kumar Rocker ($6,500) vs. ATH

The Athletics are a bad lineup, and we’ve seen pitchers beat them badly. Rocker is in a rough patch right now, but we know the kind of strikeout upside he has when the slider is really cooking, and he’s sneaking the [bad] fastball in there.

He has thrown 75, 88, 88, and 69 pitches in his last four. So he’s likely going to come in under 90 pitches here. He has three starts of 7+ strikeouts, and this is a good matchup to have another one of those days, but overall I don’t want to use him in this park. He’s not reliable at all, and I’m kinda doubting the upside since he is basically a one-pitch guy.

Cash Pitchers

• Chris Sale $10,700 vs. ARI

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto $10,500 vs. MIL

• Gavin Williams $10,200 vs. SD

I think we should just find a way to get two of those guys in there. There are decent mid-range options, but nobody truly jumping off the page. The way to play cash is to take as little risk as possible at SP.

Sale’s the lock for me, and I guess I like Williams for $300 less than Yamamoto given the 1.5-point higher projection.

Tourney Pitchers

• Chris Sale $10,700 vs. ARI

• Gavin Williams $10,200 vs. SD

• Gage Jump $7,000 vs. TEX

• Landen Roupp $7,500 vs. COL

• Grayson Rodriguez $5,700 vs. KC

• Seth Lugo $6,900 vs. LAA

• Kumar Rocker $6,500 vs. ATH

Hitters

A reminder about my stack list:

1. Braves vs. Pfaadt

2. Mets vs. Alvarez

3. Rays vs. Bassitt

4. Rangers vs. Jump

5. Yankees vs. Bieber

Let’s go position by position!

Catchers

I’ll sort by play score to narrow the pool in this 20-team slate. This is a combination of projection, value, and ceiling.

Drake Baldwin is my favorite play against Pfaadt. But maybe we don’t have the money for that.

Moises Ballesteros $2,800 is in play against Lugo, the model really, really likes him in this spot.

Carter Jensen $4,700 vs. Grayson Rodriguez has all kinds of home run potential, but he’s expensive for a guy in a bad lineup.

Salvador Perez $3,400 remains very cheap, but has a .628 OPS this year and a .197 average on the road.

I like Francisco Alvarez $3,400 for cheap home run upside.

CASH OPTIONS: BALDWIN & BALLESTEROS

First Base

Real hard to get away from Abimelec Ortiz tonight at $2300. Should be hitting #2 against Robert Stock and a bad bullpen.

Shohei Ohtani $6,400 isn’t right tonight for cash. Gasser is a tougher lefty and the Brewers have that good bullpen.

Matt Olson $5,200 is my favorite upper-price play against Pfaadt, but we are betting on Pfaadt regressing a lot in a hurry in the lack of hard contact stuff we talked about with him.

Josh Naylor $3,300 is really cheap and that turns into a 2.55x value proposition.

So Ortiz/Olson/Naylor are my favorite plays, and Ben Rice $5,900 should probably get some tourney love.

CASH PLAY: ABIMELEC ORTIZ

Second Base

Jazz Chisholm $4,500 has loads of upside with his power and speed, but he hasn’t converted that upside very often this year. The matchup is good with Bieber, but it’d be better if this game were in New York.

Jose Tena $2,900 is the value play if truly hitting #3. Robert Stock is not one to be afraid of.

Cole Young $3,300 is a similar play to Tena. Not a ton of upside, but hitting up there in the lineup and very cheap.

Another punt play not pictured is Jorge Polanco $2,200, but he looks totally busted.

Jeff McNeil $3,200 might lead off against Kumar Rocker. That would be pretty nice. And he’s got a .272 xBA this year and a .740 OPS since July 1st. But just one homer on a 1.3% Brl%.

Thee’s really no play to like at the position. Chisholm is the top projection, but it might make sense to punt it with Tena/McNeil.

CASH PLAY: JEFF MCNEIL

Third Base

Pretty gross position here, too. Only Jose Ramirez and Junior Caminero are above nine points, and they’re both expensive in less than great spots.

Bo Bichette $4,300 is a reasonable play in this good spot for the Mets. He has slugged .455 against lefties this year, and he’ll get a couple of cracks against Andrew Alvarez and then the Nats bullpen.

The punt values:

• Angel Genao $2,400

• Jorbit Vivas $2,700

• Brendan Donovan $2,900

CASH PLAY: BO BICHETTE, JOSE RAMIREZ

Shortstop

Not a good value on Witt at $6,000, but he and CJ Abrams are the top plays on the board if you have the cash.

Francisco Lindor $4,500 has a near nine-point projection with a 2x value, that’s the kind of thing we like. I like the Mets on this slate, so I might go to Bichette + Lindor in cash if I can’t afford Witt or Abrams.

Some punts:

• Jim Jarvis $2,600

• George Lombard Jr. $3,100

• Nasim Nunez $3,500

It’s a pretty light day for hitting in the infield. Nobody is really standing out.

Outfield

AJ Ewing has a .721 OPS with seven homers and 15 steals. If he’s leading off, he’s another Met to add to the short list.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has gotten it going in August. Four bombs, .868 OPS, so he’s looking like himself again. $5,700 though!

Christian Franklin $2,000 is projected to lead off for the Orioles. He hit six homers and stole 17 bags in 426 PAs in the minors with a 25% K% and 15% BB%. So my model is clearly too hot on him, but a $2K lead off hitter is always interesting. Let’s check his fScores:

Fine across the board in the minors, but no tool to hold onto. If he’s truly leading off, it’s a fine punt, but you can’t expect much. This isn’t a true MLB prospect.

Mike Trout $5,300 against Lugo is pretty juicy.

Yordan Alvarez $6,500 is tough to play with the Astros not doing much around him, and Kirby isn’t the best matchup, although it is better for the hitters when the game’s outside of Seattle. Not going to get to him in cash, but he’s always a decent one-off, and the ownership should be low.

Wyatt Langford $4,900 is the best play on the Rangers, but the projections aren’t too into any of these guys.

Luis Robert Jr. $3,500 is a cheap Met with power. But it hasn’t materialized much this year with a 5.5% Brl%.

Some other higher-priced options I’m seeing:

• Jac Caglianone $5,000

• Tyler Soderstrom $5,500

Both a little too pricey, but big upside plays.

Mid range options:

• Michael Harris $4,500

• Chandler Simpson $4,100

• Daylen Lile $4,200

Punts:

• Christian Franklin $2,000

• Josh Lowe $2,400

• Spencer Jones $3,200

• Brett Bateman $2,700

• Isaac Collins $3,000

• Wade Meckler $3,200

• Steven Kwan $3,100

• Zac Veen $2,300

CASH LINEUP ROUGH DRAFT

I suppose this is a risky bet on a low-scoring game in Sacramento. I just don’t love the matchups in that game. I do get some Mets and Braves. It would go haywire if Christian Franklin isn’t leading off, which is very possible.

But we’ll massage this thing as the lineups come out.

One way to free up a bunch of salary is to use Landen Roupp, who the Bat X really loves tonight.

I’d rather get two of the stud SPs, but we’ll see what happens! Maybe some extra Rangers stacks in tourneys to easen the burden if that game ruins my cash lineup.

GOOD LUCK out there tonight! Drop a like and a comment here if you read this whole thing, always good to get the validation that people are still reading this thing.. this one took me a few hours.

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Upcoming Schedule Streamers

• Patrick Sandoval: at PIT, vs. SF

• Gage Jump: vs. TEX, at MIN

• Grayson Rodriguez: vs. KC, at HOU, vs. CLE

• Brady Singer: vs. MIA. vs. STL, at SF

• Cody Bradford: at ATH, vs. LAA

Shallow League Pitcher Targets

• Walbert Urena, Angels (55%): Simply must be owned now

• Kade Anderson, Mariners (34%): Lots of rumors of his jump to MLB after Aug. 14. After dominating all season at Double A (10-1, 13.1 K/9, 1.13 ERA, 0.65 WHIP) has been ready for his MLB debut for weeks, if not months. Those numbers will not be that good this year, but they could be as soon as a year from now.

• Tyler Mahle, Braves (43%): They have magic in Atlanta taking average to below average stuff and making it work (I’m looking at your Martin Perez, Bryce Elder and Grant Holmes). After moving over from San Francisco at the deadline, Mahle looks like the next in line.

• Jacob Webb, Cubs (30%): We keep waiting for Cubs closer Daniel Palencia to return from his elbow inflammation that has sidelined him since June 15, but he doesn’t. Webb has stepped up with three saves in his last three appearances

• Aaron Nola, Phillies (55%): 16% K-BB%, just a massive HR/FB that has held him down. Might be ready to finish the year as a fantasy help.

• Andrew Painter, Phillies (32%): New changeup! Pitching a lot better through three starts. Bad fastball still, but you like to see experimentation with a young, talented arm.

Deep League Pitcher Targets

• Samy Natera, Angels (11%): This is your Angels closer, now and next year.

• AJ Smith-Shawver, Braves (5%): If Bryce Elder continues to look like Bryce Elder, the Braves will need another arm and it is likely to be Smith-Shawver over JR Ritchie or Owen Murphy. The 23-year-old just fired 5.1 scoreless in Triple A this week.

• Jacob Lopez, Athletics (27%): Has been really good over the last couple months since coming back from the minors.

• Gage Jump, Athletics (44%): Raw stuff is there, just needs to develop and figure out how to keep the ball in the yard. Great dynasty buy with Athletics moving to Vegas in two seasons.

• Jackson Kent, Nationals (2%): Good K% in the minors, should have a leash in the Major League rotation with the Mikolas/Littell cuts.

Shallow League Hitter Targets

• Zac Veen, Rockies (29%): The former speedster has filled out and become a power hitter while his prospect polish has worn away. He’s back in the MLB after hitting .327 with 24 HRs and stealing 18 bases in 100 games at Triple A. Hopefully the Rockies give him a chance to show them he is part of their near future.

• Abimelec Ortiz, WSH (10%): K% and Brl% popping off, big time power, getting run in Washington now with Garcia out of the picture.

• Luis Rengifo, Padres (17%): Another DFA find for the Padres. Rengifo looked to have a bright future with the Angels when he hit .264 with 17 home runs in 2022. He followed with another .264 season with 16 home runs in 2023 and hit .300 in an injury-plague 2024. But after one bad season, Rengifo was cut by the Angels. He signed late in spring training with the Brewers, but was terrible (.200/.280/.254) and released. With the Padres, he has been reborn (.318/.414/.447 with three homers and three steals in 25 games.

• Chase Meidroth White Sox (41%): OBP league target, but he’s finding a way to get the ball over the fence of late as well!

• Jake Mangum, Pirates-OF (29%): Hitting .320 with steals and some homers over the last several weeks.

Deep League Hitter Targets

• Esteury Ruiz, Marlins-OF (15%): As Jon said in his daily notes this week, Ruiz is creating the most points per plate appearance in the MLB. Now looks like he may get extra playing time as well.

• Griffin Conine, Marlins (15%): Showing big power, playing regularly now.

• Harry Ford, Nationals (10%): .811 OPS in August, two bombs, good plate discipline has carried through to the Majors

• Joshua Baez, Cardinals (12%): It seems the Cardinals are going to keep Baez in the minors despite his production. But with Jose Fermin and Bryan Torres taking up space in left field, hopefully the Cardinals want to see Baez challenged by MLB pitching before next season. He’s already on the 40-man, so let’s make this happen.

• Brett Bateman, Blue Jays (2%): He is starting nearly every day in center field after coming over to Toronto in the Kevin Gausman deal. Not even on most Cubs’ top 30 lists, Bateman is a light leadoff bat with some speed and good centerfield defense. This is all about the playing time opportunity he has now.

• Jacob Young, Nationals: Has some power this year, hitting .347 with two bombs and five steals since July 1st

Last Week’s Waiver Wire Review

Shallow League Hits

Jackson Jobe, Tigers: Looked great in his MLB return with five shutout innings. Expect some more bumps this season.

Shallow League Misses

Heliot Ramos, Yankees-OF: Might have gotten a ballpark upgrade, but he’s returned to his bad defense, no impact both ways.

Deep League Hits

Mitch Bratt, Diamondbacks: After failing to get past five innings in his first five MLB career starts, the rookie lefthander has gone seven and six innings in his past two starts against NL West foes, allowing just two runs while striking out 13.

Cody Bradford, Rangers: In two starts since missing time with Tommy John surgery, the soft-tossing lefty is only averaging 88.6 MPH on his fastball, but also has a 2.38 ERA.

Deep League Misses

Hector Rodriguez, Reds-OF: Rookie is finding a rough start to his career going 2-for-26 (.087).

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What is this? Is it 2021 again??

→ 5.0IP 3H 1ER 1R 4K 2BB

12 whiffs, a 13% SwStr%, a 51.1% Strike% for Scherzer. Gave up just a .154 xwOBA last night. And this was against the Red Sox, who did go on to score six runs against the bullpen and win the game easily.

The story with Scherzer right now, as we saw in the slate preview yesterday, is that he’s still been pretty good against righties this year. And he didn’t have to face too many lefties last night, so it worked well for him. The splits on the year:

That’s a 22% K-BB% against righties with a .280x wOBA. The slider is still working. That seems to be the last pitch to go away for the aging studs. We saw that with Kershaw as he just peppered his mix with sliders for the last few years and extended his career with it.

If you ever see a spot where Scherzer gets to face 6+ righties, you can consider him, I guess. The Blue Jays are going to keep trotting him out there as their bad season comes to an end.

Braxton Ashcraft - 9.0IP 3H 1ER 1R 10K 1BB

Just when you thought Ashcraft might be crawling to the finish line, he goes out there and throws a complete game with ten strikeouts on 85 pitches. This is a start you never see. The combo of getting 27 outs with less than 90 pitches while getting more than a strikeout per inning. Apparently, only Randy Johnson had done it since 1988.

The Marlins are a lineup that can be beaten, but boy did Ashcraft beat them.

Not a ton of whiffs, but he was filling up the zone with quality pitches and the Marlins were helpless against him. So that’s a good sign that Ashcraft is still healthy and has that great command that has made his career for him to this point.

We’re past fantasy league trade deadlines now in most cases, but generally I would still be looking to capitalize on this start in a trade. The Pirates are pretty much out of the race, and Ashcraft is something like 30 innings above what he threw last year. So they could be looking to ease off of him in September. Plus, the strikeout rate has been down under 25% in the second half.

Jacob deGrom put up ten whiffs in two innings but left the game early with a triceps thing. It was triceps fatigue, which is kinda funny. The rest of his arm was fine, it was just his tricep that got a little tired! The good news is that the Rangers are still in the playoff mix, so they aren’t going to shut him down unnecessarily. But we’ve seen some DTD stuff pop up with deGrom a few times already, and he’s pretty rarely gotten great results in the box score despite the great underlying numbers.

It’s a little bit bleak for the ace right now.

Logan Gilbert - 6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 7K 1BB

Nothing really to say here, he is a very good pitcher and took advantage of a struggling Yankees lineup. Kudos for doing it on the road. The M’s staff has not liked pitching on the road. Here are their ERAs:

1. Gilbert 2.25

2. Hancock 3.63

3. Kirby 4.10

4. Castillo 5.07

5. Woo 6.22

Gilbert’s the only one able to get it done on the road. He’s an ace, and he’ll be high up on the list for next year.

Aaron Nola - 5.0IP 5H 1ER 1R 9K 3BB

Nola is one of the more underappreciated arms in the league. He took it to the Twins last night in the Field of Dreams game.

Nola now has a 16.2% K-BB% on the year.

→ ERA: 5.33
→ SIERA: 3.88
→ xFIP: 3.86
→ FIP: 5.04

The big difference between xFIP and FIP is always about HR/FB. xFIP adjusts the home run rate for that stat, while FIP does not.

Nola has a 19.2% HR/FB this year (FanGraphs version of the stat), and that’s the highest of his career (excluding 2020). It was 18.2% last year, so he’s just getting hit harder as he gets older, but it’s a number that should regress, and that began last night.

I’m not saying he’s good; I’m just saying he’s better than you think! But I don’t know what you think, so I can’t say that for sure.

Cade Cavalli - 8.0IP 1H 0ER 0R 10K 2BB

Cavalli shoved against the Cubs. He took a perfect game pretty deep into this one and finished it up with eight scoreless on one hit and two walks. He has gotten the home run rate down as the year has gone on, and his numbers are very good for the year now.

Kevin Gausman - 4.67IP 7H 6ER 6R 7K 1BB

The Nationals have not missed a beat offensively since trading Mead and Garcia and losing Wood to the IL. They were all over Gausman, who has struggled with the Cubs so far.

I really thought we would see the Nats offense crater after that Wood injury, but they’re still crushing in August, somehow.

Abimelec Ortiz, Jacob Young, Keibert Ruiz, and Harry Ford have really stepped up for them. I don’t think that’s a core to trust in, and I still don’t like this lineup overall, but there’s some magic going on in the Nationals bats and it hasn’t slowed up.

Roki Sasaki - 6.0IP 4H 2ER 2R 2K 5BB

Horrible K:BB for Sasaki here. I have no idea how he survived this for a quality start. He would have won too if not for another Edwin Diaz blown save.

Fastball came back under 98.

Just when we thought Sasaki had it going… we might be in for another bad stretch. But at least he didn’t allow a homer and kept it together enough for a quality start. But this was the bad version of Sasaki, and we’re immediately nervous about starting him next time again.

It would make sense for him to go back to the bullpen for the postseason, right? Diaz is unreliable, they have some bullpen injuries, and they do not need Sasaki in the rotation for a postseason run.

They don’t need to like slowly build him back down to a bullpen role. We aren’t worried about him exiting the rotation soon, but maybe you won’t get him in the rotation for the last couple of weeks. If you have him (I do), I guess I’d just keep starting him until something really changes.

Shane Drohan - 5.33IP 3H 3ER 3R 5K 3BB

Better than Sasaki on the mound, but six H+BB in 5.1 innings with three walks against the Dodgers. You’ll take it in the brutal matchup, and Drohan has very good numbers around his profile.

The pitch mix for the year:

Good fastball, elite slider. I still like the guy and I’d use him in good matchups. But it’s a six-man rotation and Drohan has not been consistent.

Walbert Urena - 6.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 5K 2BB

Just keeps cruising through lineups. He ramped up the velo again last month and he has four beautiful starts in his last five.

ERA is down to 2.95, 0.54 HR/9. He’s very good, it seems. Maybe even a rich man’s Jose Soriano!

Payton Tolle - 8.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 4K 2BB

Eight scoreless for Tolle against the Blue Jays. It was predictable that he wouldn’t get many K’s against a Blue Jays lineup which is basically out there bunting. Those whiffs turned into pop outs and weak contact, and it was another massive start for Tolle.

I think this guy is a future Cy Young winner.

Since July 7th (seven starts):

A 29.5% K-BB%! The 14 strikeouts against the Athletics buoyed that K% a lot.

The pitch mix is so impressive:

He was like 65% four-seamers last year or something like that. But this year he’s added the cutter and the curve and it’s taken him to a new level. Brilliant stuff. 15.1% SwStr%, 31% ball%, .255 xwOBA.

There are only four pitchers in the league with a

• 14%+ SwStr%

• Ball% under 33%

• xERA under 3.60

They are Misiorowski, Schlittler, Skubal, and Tolle. So that’s last year’s Cy Young and probably this year’s two Cy Youngs, and Tolle.

If I were drafting for next year right now, I’d be more than comfortable with Tolle as my SP1.

Keider Montero - 6.33IP 3H 0ER 0R 0K 1BB

The Guardians did not strike out a single time and also did not score a single run! It was the second time this year a team did not strike out. The other time was the Rays on 6/26, they scored six runs. It’s happened nine times since 2023. Every other team scored at least two runs.

They call it “Guards ball!” You ground out 27 times and go home happy!

Taj Bradley - 4.0IP 7H 5ER 5R 3K 4BB

The Field of Dreams game here, and Bradley wasn’t up to the task like Nola was. Schwarber took him deep a couple of times and he had a bad start.

Let’s look at the last couple months of Bradley:

ERA is a bit high, WHIP is whatever. 16.3% K-BB%. He’s been fine, but not finishing the big breakout year super well. He’s given up 2, 3, 3, and those 5 earned runs in his last four. So it’s a cold stretch for Bradley right now.

I think his stuff is good enough to be a big league SP3 or so, but I’m growing unimpressed with his upside. He’s about a league-average SwStr% and Ball% guy, and he gives up a bunch of fly balls. It can work, but there are no ace seasons in his future.

Hitters

The Pirates scored 13 runs in support of Ashcraft. So they have a couple dudes at the top of the list here:

Rafael Flores was the return for David Bednar. He’s a catching prospect. And he’s shown a lot of power. Three homers in 36 PAs, a 19% Brl%, and a decent 25% K% with a .389 xwOBA.

In AAA this year, just a .704 OPS with four homers and a 1.45 HR%. So he hasn’t shown the power in the minors, which is a big problem. I don’t think he’ll be anything but a backup catcher in the bigs, but he does have the ability to hit some homers.

Jake Mangum had a big game with a triple, a double, and three runs scored. Since June 1st:

That’s a very good fantasy player. Oneil Cruz is rehabbing, but I think Mangum has earned a role as an every day player. I think we could see Esmerlyn Valdez go back down to AAA when Cruz gets back, opening up right field for Mangum.

Brandon Marsh broke out of his ice cold slump. What a weird season he’s had.

.948 OPS in June, .422 in July. Maybe he just needed to get near those cornfields to feel at home again.

Caleb Durbin hit another grand slam! His second of the year. Only 15 players have multiple grand slams this year (Yordan has three).

He has done the reverse Marsh. He was awful early, but pretty good in the last few months.

He might have been the catalyst for the Red Sox explosion. Since June 1st:

Here’s the list of 10-10 players since June 1st, ordered by batting average:

Abimelec Ortiz with ANOTHER dong. Update on him now:

19% K%, 21% Brl%. It’s only 31 PAs, but not a lot of dudes can do that in even 30 PAs. I think he should be rostered. I’m sure we’ll talk about him in the waiver wire pod today.

Luke Keaschall hit a bomb and has seven now. He has five since July 1st. So he’s kinda giving you what you hoped for this year since we got into the hot months.

Since June 1st:

.287, six homers, four steals. I guess the steals have kinda dried up since the power developed, but maybe he’ll find a way to do both at the same time. Good to see him on his way to at least ten bombs this year.

Weston Wilson. Shout out to this guy. Minor league masher who got cut earlier this year but is back in the Majors with the Mariners.

Nothing to speak of, he’s not good, but has a decent HR% now with five steals. Good DFS play on certain slates.

I added Chase Meidroth yesterday because he’s been on a tear.

A dozen homers now with a .279 AVG in addition to his high OBP. Only two steals, though, but he’s a big piece of a good White Sox lineup. I think he’s very solid in OBP leagues. The power is probably fake, just a 100.4 EV90 on fly balls:

And he hits a lot of ground balls. So maybe I shouldn’t have added him. But an .888 OPS since July 1st.

And the elite OBP.

That will do it for today. Big DFS preview coming this afternoon, and everything is FREE today on Friday.

Pitcher Reports

Yesterdays Pitcher Debuts

Tanner McDougal (CWS): 0.33IP, 0H, 1ER, 0SO, 3BB

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. Max Scherzer

2. Jacob deGrom

3. Braxton Ashcraft

4. Logan Gilbert

5. Tyler Phillips

6. Cade Cavalli

7. Kevin Gausman

8. Aaron Nola

9. Parker Messick

10. Shane Drohan

11. Walbert Urena

12. Payton Tolle

13. Roki Sasaki

14. Max Fried

15. Andrew Abbott

16. Taj Bradley

17. Keider Montero

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Cade Cavalli (vs. CHC): 40.2 Points

2. Braxton Ashcraft (vs. MIA): 39.85 Points

3. Logan Gilbert (vs. NYY): 28.5 Points

4. Payton Tolle (vs. TOR): 27.6 Points

5. Aaron Nola (vs. MIN): 26.45 Points

6. Walbert Urena (vs. TEX): 25.1 Points

7. Parker Messick (vs. DET): 17.76 Points

8. Keider Montero (vs. CLE): 15.84 Points

9. DL Hall (vs. LAD): 14.5 Points

10. Max Scherzer (vs. BOS): 14.25 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)

2. Aaron Nola (PHI): 14 Whiffs (97 Pitches)

3. Cade Cavalli (WSH): 14 Whiffs (104 Pitches)

4. Tyler Phillips (MIA): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)

5. Kevin Gausman (CHC): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)

6. Max Scherzer (TOR): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)

7. Parker Messick (CLE): 12 Whiffs (102 Pitches)

8. Roki Sasaki (LAD): 12 Whiffs (101 Pitches)

9. Shane Drohan (MIL): 10 Whiffs (85 Pitches)

10. Jacob deGrom (TEX): 10 Whiffs (53 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Braxton Ashcraft (PIT): 55.3 Strike%, 24.7 Ball%

2. Kevin Gausman (CHC): 53.8 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%

3. Tyler Phillips (MIA): 52.2 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%

4. Max Scherzer (TOR): 51.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%

5. Jacob deGrom (TEX): 50.9 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%

6. Walbert Urena (LAA): 49.0 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%

7. Aaron Nola (PHI): 48.5 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%

8. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 47.4 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%

9. Cade Cavalli (WSH): 47.1 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%

10. Max Fried (NYY): 46.6 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%

11. Shane Drohan (MIL): 45.9 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%

12. Payton Tolle (BOS): 45.1 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%

13. Parker Messick (CLE): 44.1 Strike%, 42.2 Ball%

14. Jordan Montgomery (TEX): 42.3 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%

15. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 40.9 Strike%, 40.9 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Braxton Ashcraft: 85 Pitches, 26 Outs, 3.27 POUT

2. Payton Tolle: 91 Pitches, 24 Outs, 3.79 POUT

3. Cade Cavalli: 104 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.33 POUT

4. Keider Montero: 88 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.63 POUT

5. Shane Drohan: 85 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.31 POUT

6. Walbert Urena: 100 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.56 POUT

7. Logan Gilbert: 95 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.59 POUT

8. Tyler Phillips: 92 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.75 POUT

9. Max Fried: 88 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.87 POUT

10. Roki Sasaki: 101 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.94 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Logan Gilbert’s FF velo (30 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 97.6

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Braxton Ashcraft’s SI usage (31.8%) up 16.3 points

Cade Cavalli’s ST usage (23.3%) up 13.8 points

Logan Gilbert’s CH usage (16.8%) up 12.4 points

Max Fried’s SI usage (30.7%) up 11.7 points

Taj Bradley’s SI usage (21.3%) up 20.7 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Eury Perez Sinker: +18.8%

Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: +18.6%

Joey Cantillo Curveball: +18.1%

Adrian Houser 4-Seam Fastball: +17.8%

Eury Perez 4-Seam Fastball: -17.6%

Eric Lauer Cutter: +16.3%

Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -15.5%

Jared Jones Slider: +15.3%

Jack Perkins Cutter: +15.1%

Jack Perkins 4-Seam Fastball: -14.5%

Connor Prielipp Sinker: +14.3%

Andrew Painter Sweeper: +13.8%

Michael Lorenzen Sinker: +13.7%

Bubba Chandler Slider: +13.5%

Grant Holmes 4-Seam Fastball: -13.5%

Drew Rasmussen 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%

Emerson Hancock Sweeper: -13.0%

Brandon Pfaadt Changeup: +12.9%

Noah Schultz Sweeper: -12.7%

Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%

Cal Quantrill Sinker: -12.0%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Edwin Diaz - 40.0 RISP H%, 0.571 BABIP, 40.0 HR/FB, 189.0 Luck Score

George Soriano - 43.0 RISP H%, 0.385 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 179.0 Luck Score

Jordan Montgomery - 33.0 RISP H%, 0.417 BABIP, 40.0 HR/FB, 178.0 Luck Score

Jack Perkins - 31.0 RISP H%, 0.457 BABIP, 36.0 HR/FB, 174.0 Luck Score

Davis Martin - 36.0 RISP H%, 0.36 BABIP, 38.0 HR/FB, 172.0 Luck Score

Jared Jones - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.44 BABIP, 43.0 HR/FB, 172.0 Luck Score

Michael Lorenzen - 33.0 RISP H%, 0.406 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 168.0 Luck Score

Paul Skenes - 43.0 RISP H%, 0.333 BABIP, 27.0 HR/FB, 165.0 Luck Score

Gabriel Hughes - 56.0 RISP H%, 0.269 BABIP, 67.0 HR/FB, 164.0 Luck Score

Nathan Eovaldi - 36.0 RISP H%, 0.343 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 163.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Yohan Ramirez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.111 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 15.0 Luck Score

Martin Perez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.125 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 16.0 Luck Score

Braydon Fisher - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.136 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 17.0 Luck Score

Andrew Alvarez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.188 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 23.0 Luck Score

Troy Melton - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.2 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 26.0 Luck Score

Sandy Alcantara - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.212 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 28.0 Luck Score

Logan Webb - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.225 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 31.0 Luck Score

Bradgley Rodriguez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.111 BABIP, 12.0 HR/FB, 34.0 Luck Score

Brandon Pfaadt - 14.0 RISP H%, 0.175 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 41.0 Luck Score

George Kirby - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.216 BABIP, 9.0 HR/FB, 42.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jesus Luzardo - 110 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

Braxton Ashcraft - 93 TBF, 32.8% CSW%

Roki Sasaki - 97 TBF, 32.6% CSW%

Cristopher Sanchez - 96 TBF, 32.3% CSW%

Sean Manaea - 101 TBF, 32.1% CSW%

Tyler Phillips - 82 TBF, 32.0% CSW%

Tyler Mahle - 89 TBF, 32.0% CSW%

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 31.8% CSW%

Gage Jump - 70 TBF, 31.7% CSW%

Dylan Cease - 102 TBF, 31.6% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 41.1% K%

Dylan Cease - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%

Sean Burke - 92 TBF, 34.8% K%

Payton Tolle - 93 TBF, 34.4% K%

Drew Rasmussen - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%

Gage Jump - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%

Logan Henderson - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%

Paul Skenes - 88 TBF, 31.8% K%

Tyler Mahle - 89 TBF, 31.5% K%

Cristopher Sanchez - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%

Payton Tolle - 93 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%

Sean Burke - 92 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%

Drew Rasmussen - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%

Kyle Leahy - 90 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%

Logan Henderson - 68 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%

Tyler Mahle - 89 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%

Trevor Rogers - 94 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%

Dylan Cease - 102 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%

Jesus Luzardo - 110 TBF, 23.6% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Ryan Weathers - 93 TBF, 66.7% GB%

Framber Valdez - 108 TBF, 65.8% GB%

Zebby Matthews - 90 TBF, 59.0% GB%

Hunter Brown - 92 TBF, 59.0% GB%

Andre Pallante - 94 TBF, 58.8% GB%

Brandon Young - 97 TBF, 58.2% GB%

Cristopher Sanchez - 96 TBF, 58.2% GB%

David Peterson - 97 TBF, 58.0% GB%

Walker Buehler - 85 TBF, 57.4% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 100 TBF, 56.5% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Griffin Jax - 45 TBF, 40.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 58.3% GB%

Jesus Luzardo - 110 TBF, 30.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.5% GB%

Joey Cantillo - 67 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, 46.5% GB%

Jose Fermin - 45 TBF, 33.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, 48.0% GB%

Kyle Leahy - 90 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.2 BB%, 48.4% GB%

MacKenzie Gore - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 45.0% GB%

Payton Tolle - 93 TBF, 34.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 43.9% GB%

Trevor Williams - 47 TBF, 29.8 K%, 4.3 BB%, 56.7% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Payton Tolle - +2.4% CSW%, -2.8 BB%

Sean Burke - +2.8% CSW%, -3.4 BB%

Kyle Leahy - +2.6% CSW%, -4.7 BB%

Tyler Mahle - +4.5% CSW%, -1.8 BB%

Tyler Phillips - +3.1% CSW%, -3.0 BB%

MacKenzie Gore - +4.0% CSW%, -2.0 BB%

Jacob Lopez - +3.1% CSW%, -5.1 BB%

Christian Scott - +3.3% CSW%, -2.6 BB%

Gavin Williams - +3.8% CSW%, -3.5 BB%

Ryan Gusto - +2.1% CSW%, -2.9 BB%

Jacob Misiorowski - +5.5% CSW%, -4.6 BB%

Tanner Gordon - +5.8% CSW%, -2.3 BB%

Brayan Bello - +2.9% CSW%, -8.4 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR

Rafael Flores (PIT) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Hardest Hit Balls

Randal Grichuk (CWS) - 113.0mph - double

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 111.7mph - double

Max Muncy (LAD) - 110.7mph - None

Sal Stewart (CIN) - 110.2mph - home_run

Wyatt Langford (TEX) - 109.4mph - single

Jo Adell (CLE) - 109.0mph - field_out

Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) - 108.8mph - None

Austin Hedges (CLE) - 108.8mph - field_out

Jacob Gonzalez (PIT) - 108.6mph - home_run

Agustin Ramirez (MIA) - 108.3mph - grounded_into_double_play

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Gunnar Henderson - 77 PA, 0.275 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff

Garrett Mitchell - 76 PA, 0.232 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, 0.096 Diff

JJ Wetherholt - 81 PA, 0.287 wOBA, 0.38 xwOBA, 0.093 Diff

Christian Yelich - 67 PA, 0.238 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.092 Diff

Jose Ramirez - 64 PA, 0.251 wOBA, 0.341 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff

Jose Fermin - 60 PA, 0.259 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff

Riley Greene - 62 PA, 0.261 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff

Nasim Nunez - 70 PA, 0.18 wOBA, 0.265 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff

Cal Raleigh - 66 PA, 0.244 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff

Taylor Ward - 69 PA, 0.212 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff

Bottom 10

Chandler Simpson - 68 PA, 0.372 wOBA, 0.251 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff

Chase Meidroth - 73 PA, 0.446 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff

Cam Smith - 63 PA, 0.408 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff

Alex Bregman - 87 PA, 0.453 wOBA, 0.359 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff

Caleb Durbin - 85 PA, 0.39 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff

Mickey Moniak - 63 PA, 0.334 wOBA, 0.246 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff

Jacob Young - 58 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff

Ceddanne Rafaela - 92 PA, 0.4 wOBA, 0.313 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff

Kevin McGonigle - 85 PA, 0.383 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff

Brandon Lowe - 83 PA, 0.36 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Pete Alonso: 38.0 PA, +0.196 xwOBA OE

Wilyer Abreu: 39.0 PA, +0.165 xwOBA OE

Jackson Chourio: 40.0 PA, +0.137 xwOBA OE

Jake McCarthy: 36.0 PA, +0.136 xwOBA OE

Griffin Conine: 34.0 PA, +0.119 xwOBA OE

Gunnar Henderson: 39.0 PA, +0.114 xwOBA OE

Jac Caglianone: 35.0 PA, +0.113 xwOBA OE

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 36.0 PA, +0.111 xwOBA OE

Jackson Merrill: 38.0 PA, +0.109 xwOBA OE

Austin Riley: 33.0 PA, +0.107 xwOBA OE

Mookie Betts: 33.0 PA, +0.102 xwOBA OE

Kyle Schwarber: 45.0 PA, +0.101 xwOBA OE

Julio Rodriguez: 37.0 PA, +0.098 xwOBA OE

Spencer Jones: 30.0 PA, +0.098 xwOBA OE

Luke Keaschall: 39.0 PA, +0.094 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Tommy Edman: 33.0 PA, -0.174 xwOBA OE

Jonah Heim: 32.0 PA, -0.158 xwOBA OE

Vaughn Grissom: 36.0 PA, -0.149 xwOBA OE

Tommy White: 30.0 PA, -0.148 xwOBA OE

Otto Lopez: 39.0 PA, -0.147 xwOBA OE

Zach Neto: 40.0 PA, -0.13 xwOBA OE

Cole Young: 33.0 PA, -0.12 xwOBA OE

Osleivis Basabe: 31.0 PA, -0.117 xwOBA OE

Taylor Walls: 30.0 PA, -0.116 xwOBA OE

David Hamilton: 36.0 PA, -0.115 xwOBA OE

Myles Straw: 37.0 PA, -0.114 xwOBA OE

Taylor Ward: 32.0 PA, -0.112 xwOBA OE

Kazuma Okamoto: 34.0 PA, -0.109 xwOBA OE

Michael Massey: 32.0 PA, -0.105 xwOBA OE

Kody Clemens: 38.0 PA, -0.105 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Matt Olson - 81 PA, 46 BIP, 13 Brls, 28.3 Brl%

Spencer Jones - 57 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 75 PA, 53 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.5 Brl%

Munetaka Murakami - 81 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 51 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 68 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%

Austin Riley - 68 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%

Taylor Trammell - 56 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 96 PA, 52 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.2 Brl%

Francisco Alvarez - 62 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Pete Alonso - 75 PA, 0.454 xwOBA

Drew Gilbert - 52 PA, 0.429 xwOBA

Taylor Trammell - 56 PA, 0.42 xwOBA

Griffin Conine - 67 PA, 0.417 xwOBA

Jake Bauers - 68 PA, 0.414 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 78 PA, 0.413 xwOBA

Bryce Harper - 90 PA, 0.413 xwOBA

Spencer Jones - 57 PA, 0.405 xwOBA

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 51 PA, 0.402 xwOBA

Tyler Stephenson - 57 PA, 0.401 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 87 PA, 169 Swings, 94.7 Cont%

Liam Hicks - 73 PA, 111 Swings, 91.9 Cont%

Javier Sanoja - 60 PA, 109 Swings, 90.8 Cont%

Mookie Betts - 71 PA, 108 Swings, 90.7 Cont%

Zach McKinstry - 60 PA, 97 Swings, 90.7 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 75 PA, 125 Swings, 90.4 Cont%

Jose Fermin - 60 PA, 89 Swings, 89.9 Cont%

Jose Ramirez - 64 PA, 123 Swings, 89.4 Cont%

Alex Bregman - 87 PA, 137 Swings, 89.1 Cont%

Chandler Simpson - 68 PA, 115 Swings, 88.7 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Chandler Simpson - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Bryson Stott - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 4 Attempts (1 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Tim Tawa - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Andres Gimenez - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Wilyer Abreu - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jose Caballero - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jose Fermin - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jac Caglianone - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jackson Holliday - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Jarren Duran - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jeff McNeil - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Lawrence Butler - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Caleb Durbin - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Garrett Mitchell - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Brice Turang - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Chandler Simpson - 11 Attempts (11 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 8 Attempts (5 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Jose Caballero - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Otto Lopez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Xavier Edwards - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Josh Naylor - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 7 Attempts (7 steals)

Tyler Tolbert - 7 Attempts (7 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Andres Gimenez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Jackson Merrill - 78 PA, 19.2 K%, 16.4 Brl%

Jake Bauers - 68 PA, 14.7 K%, 14.9 Brl%

Junior Caminero - 76 PA, 17.1 K%, 16.1 Brl%

Luis Garcia Jr. - 69 PA, 13.0 K%, 19.3 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 24.5 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Jackson Merrill - 107 PA, +0.095 xwOBA

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 109 PA, +0.068 xwOBA

Steven Kwan - 105 PA, +0.064 xwOBA

Jose Fermin - 82 PA, +0.058 xwOBA

Willi Castro - 86 PA, +0.057 xwOBA

Wilyer Abreu - 111 PA, +0.057 xwOBA

Bryson Stott - 105 PA, +0.056 xwOBA

Zach McKinstry - 81 PA, +0.056 xwOBA

Austin Riley - 97 PA, +0.055 xwOBA

Nathan Church - 83 PA, +0.049 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

Willi Castro - 86 PA, +11.6 Brl%

Austin Riley - 97 PA, +11.4 Brl%

Matt Olson - 113 PA, +9.4 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 87 PA, +8.8 Brl%

Luis Garcia Jr. - 88 PA, +8.3 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 107 PA, +8.0 Brl%

Christian Yelich - 91 PA, +6.5 Brl%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 122 PA, +6.3 Brl%

Dylan Crews - 104 PA, +5.4 Brl%

Daylen Lile - 97 PA, +5.1 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Jac Caglianone - 89 PA, +9.8 Cont%

Nasim Nunez - 94 PA, +9.2 Cont%

Cole Young - 102 PA, +9.1 Cont%

Travis Bazzana - 96 PA, +8.9 Cont%

Lawrence Butler - 89 PA, +8.4 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 93 PA, +7.7 Cont%

Randy Arozarena - 108 PA, +7.3 Cont%

Zach McKinstry - 81 PA, +7.1 Cont%

Jose Altuve - 92 PA, +6.9 Cont%

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 109 PA, +6.8 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Jac Caglianone - 89 PA, -11.9 K%

Zach McKinstry - 81 PA, -11.6 K%

Nasim Nunez - 94 PA, -11.4 K%

Cole Young - 102 PA, -9.5 K%

Isaac Paredes - 104 PA, -9.0 K%

Nathan Church - 83 PA, -8.1 K%

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 109 PA, -7.8 K%

George Springer - 97 PA, -7.0 K%

Spencer Torkelson - 105 PA, -6.8 K%

Randy Arozarena - 108 PA, -6.6 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Jake Mangum: +3.0

Justin Crawford: +2.83

Jacob Wilson: +2.62

Alec Burleson: +2.6

Ty France: +2.45

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

JJ Wetherholt: -4.2

Freddie Freeman: -3.18

Steven Kwan: -2.85

Tyler Stephenson: -2.6

J.T. Realmuto: -2.3

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 0.415 xwOBA, 19.0% Brl%, 84.7% Contact%, 19.6% Chase%, 9.4% K%

JJ Wetherholt - 0.406 xwOBA, 11.4% Brl%, 84.4% Contact%, 11.9% Chase%, 14.3% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Jimmy Crooks III - 34.3% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.924 Cold Rating

Dane Myers - 38.1% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.916 Cold Rating

Heliot Ramos - 36.7% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.901 Cold Rating

Riley Greene - 31.1% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.894 Cold Rating

Max Kepler - 31.2% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.887 Cold Rating

Wyatt Langford - 30.3% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating

Carlos Narvaez - 38.5% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.869 Cold Rating

Esmerlyn Valdez - 42.5% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.867 Cold Rating

Luis Robert - 36.1% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.867 Cold Rating

Andres Chaparro - 32.8% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.863 Cold Rating

Minor League Reports

Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday

Benjamin Cowles (CHC): 3/3, 2R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 39FPts

Raylin Heredia (PHI): 3/3, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2SB, 38FPts

Mark Coley II (MIL): 2/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2SB, 33FPts

Avery Owusu-Asiedu (ARI): 3/5, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 33FPts

Tim Elko (CWS): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 1SB, 33FPts

Greg Jones - 675659 (CHC): 2/4, 3R, 1HR, 1RBI, 2SB, 33FPts

Cristian Hernandez (MIA): 3/5, 2R, 0HR, 4RBI, 1SB, 32FPts

Luke Mann (OAK): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 32FPts

James Tibbs III (LAD): 2/3, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 32FPts

Jansel Luis (ARI): 3/5, 2R, 2HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 31FPts

fTop Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday

Jurrangelo Cijntje (STL): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 2H, 1ER, 11K, 1BB, 32FPts

Adam Seminaris (PHI): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 9K, 0BB, 31FPts

Elmer Rodriguez (NYY): 0 Pitches, 7IP, 3H, 0ER, 7K, 1BB, 31FPts

Jason Alexander (HOU): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 8K, 1BB, 29FPts

Carlos Pena (DET): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 5H, 0ER, 7K, 0BB, 27FPts

David Hagaman (ARI): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 7K, 1BB, 24FPts

Lucas Braun (KC): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 2ER, 7K, 2BB, 24FPts

Liam Doyle (STL): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 2H, 1ER, 6K, 4BB, 23FPts

Chris Vallimont (MIN): 0 Pitches, 4IP, 0H, 0ER, 6K, 2BB, 23FPts

Yunior Marte - 805074 (SF): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 5H, 1ER, 7K, 1BB, 23FPts

AA-AAA OPS Leaders

Cooper Ingle (AAA - CLE) 342 PA 1.018 OPS

Danny Serretti (AAA - ARI) 334 PA 0.985 OPS

Franklin Arias (AAA - BOS) 405 PA 0.984 OPS

Sean Keys (AAA - TOR) 368 PA 0.975 OPS

James Tibbs III (AAA - LAD) 498 PA 0.971 OPS

Jack Pineda (AAA - KC) 310 PA 0.97 OPS

Josue De Paula (AA - LAD) 484 PA 0.967 OPS

Blake Burke (AAA - MIL) 446 PA 0.962 OPS

Turner Hill (AAA - SF) 407 PA 0.955 OPS

Owen Ayers (AAA - CHC) 364 PA 0.952 OPS

Alex Binelas (AA - PHI) 430 PA 0.948 OPS

Christian Moore (AAA - LAA) 390 PA 0.944 OPS

Xavier Isaac (AA - TB) 385 PA 0.944 OPS

Brooks Brannon (AA - BOS) 320 PA 0.943 OPS

Lazaro Montes (AAA - SEA) 477 PA 0.94 OPS

Marco Luciano (AAA - NYY) 376 PA 0.934 OPS

Brett Squires (AAA - KC) 434 PA 0.934 OPS

Charlie Condon (AAA - COL) 457 PA 0.925 OPS

Ben Ross (AAA - MIN) 429 PA 0.922 OPS

Jay Harry (A - TOR) 312 PA 0.918 OPS

AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders

Kade Anderson (AA - SEA) 87 IP 37.1% K-BB

Jace Beck (AAA - MIA) 79 IP 24.8% K-BB

Gage Ziehl (AAA - BOS) 86 IP 23.2% K-BB

Adam Seminaris (AA - PHI) 111 IP 23.2% K-BB

Brett Sears (AA - ATL) 91 IP 23.0% K-BB

Carlos Pena (AA - DET) 91 IP 22.3% K-BB

Xavier Rivas (AAA - NYY) 82 IP 20.6% K-BB

John Holobetz (AAA - BOS) 92 IP 20.0% K-BB

Brandon White - 681449 (AAA - MIA) 90 IP 19.9% K-BB

Daniel Eagen (AA - STL) 93 IP 19.9% K-BB

Jose Cabrera - 703615 (AAA - ARI) 81 IP 19.8% K-BB

Brendan Beck (AAA - NYY) 115 IP 19.7% K-BB

Joe Whitman (AAA - SF) 92 IP 19.0% K-BB

Jonathan Santucci (AAA - NYM) 100 IP 18.8% K-BB

Logan Allen - 671106 (AAA - CLE) 94 IP 18.6% K-BB

Tyson Hardin (AAA - MIL) 101 IP 18.5% K-BB

Cesar Perdomo (AAA - SF) 99 IP 18.5% K-BB

Matt Wilkinson (AAA - SF) 86 IP 18.1% K-BB

Jackson Nezuh (AAA - HOU) 84 IP 17.8% K-BB

Connor McCullough (AA - CWS) 80 IP 17.4% K-BB

Today’s SP Streamer Picks

Gage Jump (37.0% Owned): Projected 5.43IP 2.35ER 5.96SO 2.13BB 16.56FPts

Grayson Rodriguez (21.0% Owned): Projected 5.78IP 2.78ER 5.38SO 2.12BB 14.85FPts

Kyle Freeland (3.0% Owned): Projected 5.62IP 2.55ER 4.67SO 1.2BB 13.68FPts

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

Jacob Young - 30 PA, 1.147 OPS

Griffin Conine - 34 PA, 1.12 OPS

Angel Martinez - 31 PA, 1.075 OPS

Josh Bell - 44 PA, 1.011 OPS

Tyler O’Neill - 30 PA, 0.982 OPS

Victor Mesa Jr. - 29 PA, 0.943 OPS

Zach McKinstry - 30 PA, 0.935 OPS

Javier Sanoja - 29 PA, 0.932 OPS

Jake Mangum - 39 PA, 0.918 OPS

Jose Siri - 27 PA, 0.912 OPS

Today’s Hitter Streamer Picks

C.J. Abrams nan (29.0% Owned): Projected 0.84R 0.2HR 0.57RBI 0.92SO 0.52BB 0.18SB 9.94FPts

Jakob Marsee OF (41.0% Owned): Projected 0.74R 0.11HR 0.52RBI 1.25SO 0.69BB 0.28SB 9.14FPts

Spencer Jones OF (32.0% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.24HR 0.74RBI 1.25SO 0.35BB 0.14SB 9.13FPts

Ronny Simon 2B (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.13HR 0.52RBI 0.65SO 0.35BB 0.22SB 8.73FPts

Moises Ballesteros C (16.0% Owned): Projected 0.62R 0.19HR 0.67RBI 0.71SO 0.4BB 0.04SB 8.43FPts

Nasim Nunez SS (35.0% Owned): Projected 0.55R 0.04HR 0.56RBI 0.76SO 0.67BB 0.41SB 8.33FPts

Nolan Schanuel 1B (24.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.12HR 0.66RBI 0.51SO 0.42BB 0.04SB 8.26FPts

Dylan Crews OF (41.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.18HR 0.64RBI 0.94SO 0.43BB 0.13SB 8.23FPts

Cole Young SS (41.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.13HR 0.57RBI 0.75SO 0.4BB 0.06SB 8.16FPts

Jose Tena SS (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.13HR 0.63RBI 1.02SO 0.48BB 0.13SB 8.08FPts

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Looking for some hot pitchers to pick up for the stretch run. Let’s hit you with some data tables.

Major League K% Improvers

Full data here, but I’m going to zoom in on some guys I’m most interested in.

We’re keeping this real simple, I just have a little bit of time for this, and often times, the simple answer is the right answer.

We like strikeouts. We like strikeouts a lot. And these six dudes are getting strikeouts.

The 10-12 team options here:

Andrew Painter - Phillies

As if you don’t know that Andrew Painter is on the Phillies, I put the team name there. But it brings the post a note of professionalism.

Painter was buns all year, and then the Phillies sent him down. And then he comes back up with a new pitch mix. That’s always a signal to start re-evaluating. He’s been a top prospect in the past, he throws hard, and he’s still very young. So you’d be foolish to give up on him at this point. And maybe we can buy into him now for the big future ahead of him. This might apply more to dynasty leagues, but I’m growing more interested in Painter for this season too.

Here’s the pitch mix trend:

It’s an ugly plot, but I’ll try to narrow it down. That changeup is NEW

That splitter is GONE:

The sweeper has been used more. Last three starts:

Fastball - STILL SUCKS. Why do I say that?

→ 42% Strike% (bench mark is like 47%, and you really want 50%+)
→ .381 xwOBA (bench mark is like .320, you want at least below .340 for a four-seamer

So that’s a problem and he’s going to give up some dingers when these Major League big boys can sit on that heater in a 3-1 count and go deep into the night with it.

The sweeper has a nic 51% Strike%, but a mediocre SwStr% and a high .358 xwOBA on a low pitch count (59).

The changeup though, the changeup. Many a pitcher has made a decent living with a nasty changeup. And maybe that’s what we’re seeing develop here. Having high-90s on the four-seamer is a help, too. So it could happen with Painter, it could happen.

NEXT STARTS: at TWINS, vs. CARDINALS

Roki Sasaki, Dodgers

He’s owned by now. Above 70% on CBS. But this is another seal of approval from me. It’s at least my second seal of approval, and I retracted the first one.

Fastball velo has been cranking:

He got over 98 on June 1st and he’s kept it there. And since then:

16% K-BB%, 42% GB%, .224 xBA, .295 xwOBA, and even some bad luck with a brutally high 26% HR/FB. The ERA since June 1st is 4.50, no great, but most of that is because of the 1.8 HR/9 which makes no sense from him and his ground ball rate and that 26% HR/FB. It’s coming down.

We’ve already seen it coming to fruition in this second half. His last four:

Fantastic stuff. It could go south again, and he’s all of these Dodgers are pitching once per week with the six or seven man rotation or whatever they’re going to do with Snell back. But I’m starting Sasaki every time… at least until I stop.

The deeper league options:

Tyler Mahle, Braves

Can’t really argue with what he’s done in a Braves uniform. But it’s only in two starts. The splitter has been fantastic in these two outings, and the fastball and cutter combo has been good enough.

I think most likely this is just a good two-start stretch with positive variance in the dude having the splitter both times. It’s not a pitch mix you can count on start-to-start, but it’s possible the Braves just saw something in him and have put some tweaks into play and are seeing the fruits of that come out.

The Braves are one of those squads that seem to get the best of their arms. This is the team that has a sub-three ERA from Martin Perez this year, after all.

Joey Cantillo, Guardians

It’s another pitch mix change. This particular mix change happened back on June 20th when he started throwing more curveballs. It’s been ten starts since then, and the dude has a 31% K%.

That’s a 21.4% K-BB% and a 2.71 JA SIERA. Very, very good.

Length has been a big issue.

That one inning was just a long rain delay in a poorly executed weather situation in Chicago last week. But he hasn’t gone six innings since June 26th. So you aren’t getting qual-bangers. He walks dudes, he labors, but the strikeouts are there and have been for some time.

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

Okay I’ve given you a few guys at high ownership. I can’t believe Cantillo is like 75% owned, that’s nonsense. But Lopez is not owned.

And yet again, a pitch mix change! Same story with Painter here. He went to the minors and came up as a changed man. He returned in early July. So we have a pretty big sample of him back on the bump:

22% K-BB% kiddos!

BUT WAIT, he pitches in Sacramento, where 12 runs per game are scored (it’s legit at 12.25, but that includes the Vegas series, I think).

Lopez hasn’t cared.

TWO STARTS BIG WHOOP - but a 23.3% K-BB% and 2.80 ERA there. He’s pitching well!

I’d use him on the road and feel pretty good about it right now. Pitch mix since returning:

Fastball has been great, slider has been extremely great. Maybe he’s just been super lucky to get an 11% HR/FB, but he’s throwing his best pitches a lot and it’s been working.

Next starts: vs. TEX, at HOU

Gage Jump, Athletics

Two Athletics recommendations… that’s where we’re at late in the season when pitching staffs are breaking down. But since the break, he has struck out a ton of batters at 32%. I suppose that’s the end of the good news with his 16% BB% and 1.1 HR/9:

But he has two good ones in his last three:

This is probably who the guy is. Sometimes very good, sometimes very bad. But maybe you can pick your spots and get the very good.

Pitch mix data for the season:

27% Ball% on the four-seamer and a decent .333 xwOBA. It’s a 96mph fastball from a wicked release point (he’s a lefty), so it can fool guys if it’s on. And the slider has come into form.

There’s a lot to like. Maybe it’s more of a long-term investment. He and the rest of the staff should be helped when they can finally escape the minor league park in a couple of seasons, but we have some high upside for Jump any time he takes the mound.

Next start: vs. TEX, at KC

I’d be grabbing him for that second start.

MINOR LEAGUERS

Some minor league guys absolutely cooking lately:

Anthony Eyanson, Orioles

He’s one of the big prospect pitchers to know about. It’s probably a little too late to acquire him at discount now with his huge numbers for the season and the headlines he made as the main return for Adley Rutschman at the deadline.

But Eyanson is the man:

Incredible numbers this year. He’s in AA, but we’re probably looking at a 2027 arrival if the season goes off as normal and he stays healthy.

Miguel Sime Jr., Nationals

The Nats will need to come through on these prospect pitchers if they want to turn Abrams/Wood into a contender. Sime Jr. could be a big part of that. He’s not even in AA yet, but the 41.3% K% ont he year is astounding.

Really needs to learn to throw some strikes. Tim’s talked about him a few times in Prospects of the Week, so there’s a lot of content here about him.

The stuff seems nasty, and if he can rein it in, the Nats will have something.

His last two starts: 17 strikeouts, 3 walks. So that’s a positive sign already!

Caden Hunter, Orioles

Lots of young pitching in the DC area now! Hunter recently got to AA and has struck out 26 hitters in three starts. Plus elite home run suppression and a non-terrifying walk rate:

Round up and you’ve got a 40% K%. Not often do you see that going on.

Aidean Deakins, Rangers

I’m not sure what the point of this post is now, going deep into the minors when I started talking about redraft guys to add right now. But let’s finish with Deakins.

22 year old, 25.5% K%, 9.5% BB% in the minors this year. 22 strikeouts in his last three outings. The Rangers have some young pitching prospects, and he’s pitching his way into consideration for your dynasty leagues. He’s an unknown, not even ranked in the Rangers MLB prospects list. So maybe I’m just stupid. But there you go, someone to look into more for you savvy Dynasty bro’s.

BACK TO THE MAJORS

A few more names, these are pretty much deep league kinda gross options for you:

Sean Manaea

3.35 JA SIERA last seven starts, three straight quality starts, 18 strikeouts in his last two. Maybe a hot stretch to finish the year for Manaea is coming.

Luis Castillo

Did some nasty work against the Reds yesterday. Maybe the White Sox will be able to get some decent work from him as they push for the playoffs. If nothing else, the limitations of the Mariners loaded up pitching staff is a thing of the past.

Grayson Rodriguez

20 strikeouts in his last three, at least 14 fantasy points in each of those. Averaged almost 97 on the heater in two recent starts. Seems like he’s healthy and throwing it about as good as he has in the recent years.

Some very soft upcoming schedules for kinda bad pitchers:

• Patrick Sandoval: at PIT, vs. SF

• Landen Roupp: vs. COL, at CLE

• Brady Singer: vs MIA, vs STL, at SF

• Cody Bradford: at ATH, vs LAA

• Jackson Kent: at TEX, at MIA

I like Cody Bradford for WHIP help. I’d start him in both of those spots, but don’t expect any strikeout help.

Jackson Kent kinda came out of nowhere. He threw four innings yesterday and struck out six Cubs in his big league debut. But he walked five. In the minors this year:

Pretty good 19.4% K-BB% and 1.05 HR/9. The pitch mix from that Cubs start:

Probably nothing here. Low-velo fastball, slider/changeup. Not a highly touted prospect, but maybe in a crazy deep league where you just need some volume. They’ll need him with the recent release of Littell and Mikolas.

I don’t know; hope this helps somebody out there. At least it killed some time on a boring Thursday in baseball.

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The only playable DFS slate is this afternoon, so I hope you’re awake! And it’s a six-game slate with a potential rainout in Chicago (CIN/CWS):

ORANGE/YELLOW - Rain builds in during the game. Light at first, potentially heavy by the end of the game. I’ll be honest, I have no idea what the plan is here. I don’t think they can late start and wait it out, I think it’s smarter to just play ball and hope they can get the game in through the rain.

Risky there, and we’re looking to use pitchers against the Reds. So that is a big impact on this slate.

Game Info

Cubs vs. Cade Cavalli

This is a low implication for the Cubs, a third of a run below their season average. And that’s because Cavalli is pretty good. But the Cubs are on top, and they have some dudes swinging bats right now. It’s a good park to hit in, and a bad Nationals bullpen. So it’s fine, but we haven’t made much money stacking against Cavalli last night, and the -0.33 implication vs. average is a red flag.

Boston vs. Max Scherzer

Great spot for Boston against Scherzer 8.5% K-BB% and 2.1 HR/9. Scherzer just isn’t a Major League talent at this point and he’s in there for ticket sales and innings. The splits are interesting:

So you want the Boston lefties more than the righties. Big differences there. He’s actually been above-average against righties so far.

So those guys:

• Yoshida $3K

• Rutschman $4.1K

• Abreu $5.0K

• Duran $3.9K

Cleveland vs. Montero

Montero has been kinda fine.

Just a .291 xwOBA allowed. The Guardians lineup is healthy and a lot better than what we saw for a couple of months there. It’s fine to use some of those pieces, but Montero can hold his own enough for me to not want to stack Cleveland.

They’re pretty cheap outside of J-Ram, though. Montero’s another guy who doesn’t have many answers against lefties, and Cleveland has a ton of lefties here. Six of the top seven will hit from that side of the plate.

White Sox vs. Andrew Abbott

Another non-elite spot. Abbott’s a lefty and this game’s in Chicago. So that works for Abbott. You also have the rain thing going on, it could be a shortened game.

But the White Sox hit bombs, and that can be done against Abbott. So I like them if you can get ‘em at lower ownership.

Yankees vs. Logan Gilbert

And now we’re down to offenses facing studs. Gilbert is very good. But he is on the road here and can give up some homers like most of these other Mariners starts. The Yankees are a sneaky spot for a mini-stack hunting a couple of bombs.

So it’s a pretty ugly hitting slate for building stacks. Only three teams imply above their season average:

• Boston +0.33

• Cleveland +0.33

• Yankees +0.11

Pitchers

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Pitchers

LUIS CASTILLO vs. CIN

This is a long-range revenge game. For those of you new to baseball, Luis Castillo came up as a big name prospect with the Reds, but was pretty mostly disappointing in those years. But he exploited them last night.

→ 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 10 SO, 2 BB, 38 DK Points

That’s a total smash. The Reds have been bleeding fantasy points to opposing starters. Some dudes just from the last week:

Since June 1st, pitchers have scored 3.21 DraftKings points per inning against them, that’s the highest in the league by a ton.

1. CIN 3.21

2. NYY 3.10

3. LAA 3.09

4. CLE 2.96

5. SEA 2.96

0.11 difference from Cincy to the Yanks, and that’s a huge difference.

Castillo racked up 22 whiffs. He had gone over 15 just two other times this year. Here are the Reds top hitters stats since 6/1:

Everybody has at least a 22% K%, which is insane. Stewart, Elly, and Stephenson have been fine, but nobody else is really contributing. Eugenio Suarez has been a disaster for them. Here are some of his stats:

Up to a 37% K% and down to a 4.9% HR%. That’s still a decent home run rate, but when he’s not hitting homers he’s doing nothing else.

The Reds are up there with the best teams to stream against, and you can even do it in Cincinnati happily because they haven’t hit any better there than they have on the road.

George Klassen vs. TEX

→ 6.0IP 5H 2ER 2R 5K 1BB

One walk from Klassen! He threw a 31% Ball%, which was awesome after his 45% in his first start back. The stuff is really good. He has a 16% SwStr% in both starts since coming back, so if he can figure out how to throw strikes, he’s going to be pretty good. That’s easier said than done, but we’ll see plenty of Klassen the rest of the season. He could turn into a guy you might want to consider adding, and he’ll be an interesting case for next year. So far, the command has been so bad that nothing else has worked. But this was a good sign.

His slider gets a ton of whiffs.

There is development needed with the fastball and changeup, but he has the “raw materials” to develop into a decent MLB starter.

And I played him in DFS last night. Except I got confused during my write-up I guess and put a couple of Rangers in that recommended lineup with him. That was a total brain fart, but the lineup still did very well and cashed in tourneys.

Eric Lauer vs. KC

→ 6.33IP 4H 1ER 2R 6K 2BB

They let him throw 112 pitches. That’s the key point here. He pitched well: 19 whiffs, 49.1% strike rate. The Royals are really bad. We don’t care about Lauer for fantasy leagues, but him throwing that many pitches was interesting.

The Dodgers seem to be solely focused on October. They just want to get to the postseason with Snell + Yamamoto + Skubal ready to go. And if they can get Ohtani back as a pitcher that would be a boost too.

But they are pretty healthy right now, which means they have like 6-7 starters to choose from for this next month and a half. Someone has to lose a rotation spot. Maybe it’s Wrobleski, maybe it’s Lauer. But Lauer made his case last night, even though he’s gotta be on the track to not make their playoff roster at all, right?

Tyler Mahle vs. NYM

→ 6.0IP 4H 1ER 1R 7K 0BB

Mahle in his two starts with the Braves:

So that’s pretty good! Has there been a pitch mix change? That’s the logical next question.

And the answer is that there’s nothing huge. He has emphasized the splitter a bit more, but it’s mostly the same approach.

I think this is just a case where the splitter has worked really for two starts, and that’s nothing to hang your hat on. I don’t think the Braves just had some idea for how to tweak his splitter and now he’s going to take off.

But it’s worth saying that Mahle has never been a bad starter, he’s just been hurt a lot.

So maybe there’s something here. You can definitely stream the guy. He was chalk in DFS last night, which surprised me.

Dustin May vs. SD

→ 7.0IP 4H 1ER 1R 6K 2BB

Very efficient, kept the ball in the yard. That’s the good version of Dustin May, and he grabbed six strikeouts with it. It’ll be interesting to see how May operates with the Brewers.

They have thus far emphasized his cutter.

Four-seamer down, cutter up. So that’s a change. And it’s worked pretty well so far. A 20.3% SwStr% on that cutter in two Brewers starts.

He’s throwing six pitches and has his normal pretty good stuff. I think May should be pretty much universally owned, moving from St. Louis to Milwaukee as a park downgrade (but that doesn’t matter much for him cause he doesn’t give up homers anywhere), and he gets the benefit of a better team around him and a really sharp coaching staff.

Bryce Miller vs. NYY

→ 6.0IP 8H 5ER 5R 5K 1BB

He’s bad now. Since July 9th:

That’s not good. The strikeouts are gone:

The walks are still fine, but have moved in the wrong direction:

And he has a home run issue. It’s not good. Just another guy they could replace with KADE ANDERSON!

But the Mariners are playing their way out of the playoffs. Nine games under .500, 5.5 back in the division, I don’t know if they have much sense of urgency right now which hurts our chances of seeing Kade Anderson.

Zack Wheeler vs STL

→ 5.0IP 6H 4ER 5R 5K 1BB

Something might be breaking down with Wheeler. He has a 7.63 ERA in his last four starts. The K% is still high (27%), but not elite, and he’s walking guys now (9.5% BB5) and giving up dingers (Three in 15.1 innings).

The velo has been down a bit.

He still has been getting a handful of strikeouts and decent whiff totals, but the elite command seems to have been lost.

It’s not enough to change your approach. You’ve just gotta start the guy and hope this is a random blip or it gets fixed. But not great news for Wheeldaddy.

Ranger Suarez vs. TOR

→ 5.0IP 6H 1ER 1R 2K 1BB

81 pitches and he limited runs. But six hits, a walk, six whiffs. He doesn’t look quite right. The Blue Jays aren’t a good lineup, but they are very tough to strikeout. So it wasn’t a soft matchup in all regards, and he held it together. I’m never confident with Suarez, this is just kinda who he is. He can completely lose the ability to get strikeouts, which opens him up to some bad starts when the BABIP doesn’t go right.

Robbie Ray vs. MIL

Tough matchup for him strikeout and efficiency wise, and that’s what we saw.

→ 4.0IP 2H 2ER 2R 4K 3BB

84 pitches to get 12 outs. I really didn’t like him leaving San Francisco where it’s so easy to keep the ball in the yard. He’s given up a homer in each of his last two. And that’s nothing he can really afford with just a 21% K% on the year.

He has a 5.7% K-BB% over his last seven starts and a 1.58 WHIP with a K% near 14%.

I don’t like Robbie Ray and wouldn’t really advise he gets started outside of really good matchups.

Hitters

We looked at Alex Bregman’s power breakout yesterday and decided that it looked fake. Then he hit three bombs last night.

Before July 1st, he had seven homers 385 PAs.
Since July 1st, he has nine homers in 157 PAs.

That’s a massive improvement. Now he has five homers this month with a 1.123 OPS. Something is going right.

Since the break:

Still not an impressive barrel rate, but the ball keeps flying over the fence. The .330 xwOBA is barely above the league average. Beats me man, but we’re starting him daily for the rest of the season and we’ll just take whatever he gives us.

Trent Grisham took advantage of Bryce Miller’s fall off and homered twice. He has really lowered the K% this year, but he’s barely going to get over half the amount of homers he hit a year ago:

He’s been fine and has a big 1.045 OPS in August now after those two homers. But still just a .700 OPS since July 1st.

Griffin Conine continues to hit tanks. He has 11 since getting off the IL.

That’s an elite home run rate with a .943 OPS and a .277 AVG. The guy has pop, and he has a .382 xwOBA in these last 150 PAs.

So he’s a sneaky add if you’re looking for some power. He has started 20 of 22 games since the break, so he’s playing a lot too.

Austin Riley has gotten it together. An .891 OPS since the break. Another dinger last night.

But the 37% K% shows that the issues aren’t fixed. At least the barrels are coming again, though with that 24% Brl%. I wouldn’t be buying too much into it, a 66% Contact%, he’s just been running hot on contact. But that’s better than what he was doing before when he had a horrible K% with a bad Brl% too.

Dinger from Corey Seager. He looks a lot more like himself since getting off the IL the most recent time. An .813 OPS since the break (92 PAs) with three homers and a 14.7% Brl% on his typical elite K% (16.3%).

Abimelec Ortiz hit another bomb. He has a 1.026 OPS in the bigs now with three homers in 27 PAs on an 18.5% K% and a 19% Brl%. Those are good signs.

Ortiz is a deeper league add right now, and a reasonable guy to pick up anywhere if you’re looking for some upside. This was a guy that showed a ton of power in the minors.

His minor league season history:

So the K% hasn’t been a big issue in the last three seasons, but it was at his career best this year while maintaining a near 5% HR%. Good news from Ortiz, he could end up being the Nats long-term guy at first base.

That’s going to have to do it for today!

Pitcher Reports

Yesterdays Pitcher Debuts

Jackson Kent (WSH): 4.0IP, 3H, 3ER, 6SO, 5BB

Tanner Rainey (DET): 1.67IP, 0H, 0ER, 1SO, 2BB

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. Luis Castillo

2. Eric Lauer

3. George Klassen

4. Dustin May

5. Bryce Miller

6. Tyler Mahle

7. Robbie Ray

8. Jose Soriano

9. David Peterson

10. Kyle Leahy

11. Drew Rasmussen

12. Adrian Houser

13. Zack Wheeler

14. Cal Quantrill

15. Will Warren

16. Shane Baz

17. Ranger Suarez

18. Jack Perkins

19. Ryan Feltner

20. Framber Valdez

21. Rhett Lowder

22. Zebby Matthews

23. Janson Junk

24. Jackson Kent

25. Zac Thornton

26. Foster Griffin

27. Merrill Kelly

28. Carmen Mlodzinski

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. CIN): 37.95 Points

2. Tyler Mahle (vs. NYM): 27.1 Points

3. Eric Lauer (vs. KC): 24.64 Points

4. Dustin May (vs. SD): 22.15 Points

5. Adrian Houser (vs. HOU): 21.7 Points

6. Kyle Leahy (vs. PHI): 21.65 Points

7. George Klassen (vs. TEX): 19.9 Points

8. Cal Quantrill (vs. LAA): 17.05 Points

9. Janson Junk (vs. PIT): 16.5 Points

10. Foster Griffin (vs. DET): 16.25 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Luis Castillo (CWS): 22 Whiffs (104 Pitches)

2. Eric Lauer (LAD): 19 Whiffs (112 Pitches)

3. Tyler Mahle (ATL): 15 Whiffs (93 Pitches)

4. George Klassen (LAA): 14 Whiffs (87 Pitches)

5. David Peterson (CHC): 13 Whiffs (90 Pitches)

6. Dustin May (MIL): 13 Whiffs (83 Pitches)

7. Bryce Miller (SEA): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)

8. Robbie Ray (SD): 12 Whiffs (84 Pitches)

9. Jose Soriano (TOR): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)

10. Cal Quantrill (TEX): 10 Whiffs (85 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Kyle Leahy (STL): 53.1 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%

2. Jose Soriano (TOR): 52.2 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%

3. Robbie Ray (SD): 51.2 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%

4. Adrian Houser (SF): 50.0 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%

5. Bryce Miller (SEA): 49.4 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%

6. George Klassen (LAA): 49.4 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%

7. Trevor Williams (WSH): 49.2 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%

8. Eric Lauer (LAD): 49.1 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%

9. Drew Rasmussen (TB): 48.8 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%

10. Dustin May (MIL): 48.2 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%

11. Tyler Mahle (ATL): 47.3 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%

12. Luis Castillo (CWS): 47.1 Strike%, 42.3 Ball%

13. Zebby Matthews (MIN): 46.8 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%

14. Foster Griffin (CLE): 45.8 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%

15. Will Warren (NYY): 45.7 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Dustin May: 83 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.95 POUT

2. Adrian Houser: 74 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.11 POUT

3. Janson Junk: 81 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.5 POUT

4. Zac Thornton: 80 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.71 POUT

5. Merrill Kelly: 71 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.73 POUT

6. George Klassen: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT

7. Luis Castillo: 104 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.2 POUT

8. Jose Soriano: 90 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.29 POUT

9. Kyle Leahy: 81 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.4 POUT

10. Ranger Suarez: 81 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.4 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Eric Lauer’s FC velo (44 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 89.1

Trevor Williams’s FF velo (26 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 89.6

Zack Wheeler’s FC velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.8

Shane Baz’s FF velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 94.0

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Adrian Houser’s FF usage (38.4%) up 22.9 points

Bryce Miller’s FS usage (46.1%) up 21.5 points

Cal Quantrill’s FS usage (36.5%) up 13.7 points

David Peterson’s FF usage (33.3%) up 10.0 points

Dustin May’s FC usage (36.1%) up 19.9 points

Eric Lauer’s FC usage (39.3%) up 18.0 points

Javier Assad’s SI usage (60.6%) up 19.2 points

Merrill Kelly’s FF usage (38.0%) up 13.7 points

Ranger Suarez’s FF usage (33.3%) up 15.5 points

Rhett Lowder’s CH usage (30.9%) up 10.4 points

Robbie Ray’s CH usage (31.0%) up 15.7 points

Robbie Ray’s SI usage (15.5%) up 10.4 points

Tatsuya Imai’s FF usage (58.2%) up 11.2 points

Tyler Mahle’s FS usage (39.8%) up 12.7 points

Will Warren’s SI usage (33.3%) up 10.0 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Parker Messick 4-Seam Fastball: +21.1%

Eury Perez Sinker: +18.8%

Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: +18.6%

Joey Cantillo Curveball: +18.1%

Adrian Houser 4-Seam Fastball: +17.8%

Eury Perez 4-Seam Fastball: -17.6%

Eric Lauer Cutter: +16.3%

Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -15.5%

Jared Jones Slider: +15.3%

Jack Perkins Cutter: +15.1%

Jack Perkins 4-Seam Fastball: -14.5%

Aaron Nola Changeup: +14.4%

Connor Prielipp Sinker: +14.3%

Andrew Painter Sweeper: +13.8%

Michael Lorenzen Sinker: +13.7%

Bubba Chandler Slider: +13.5%

Grant Holmes 4-Seam Fastball: -13.5%

Drew Rasmussen 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%

Emerson Hancock Sweeper: -13.0%

Brandon Pfaadt Changeup: +12.9%

Roki Sasaki Split-Finger: +12.8%

Noah Schultz Sweeper: -12.7%

Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%

Cal Quantrill Sinker: -12.0%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

George Soriano - 43.0 RISP H%, 0.357 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 182.0 Luck Score

Jack Perkins - 31.0 RISP H%, 0.457 BABIP, 36.0 HR/FB, 179.0 Luck Score

Davis Martin - 41.0 RISP H%, 0.342 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 174.0 Luck Score

Michael Lorenzen - 33.0 RISP H%, 0.406 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 172.0 Luck Score

Paul Skenes - 43.0 RISP H%, 0.333 BABIP, 27.0 HR/FB, 172.0 Luck Score

Nathan Eovaldi - 36.0 RISP H%, 0.343 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 170.0 Luck Score

Jared Jones - 33.0 RISP H%, 0.341 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 166.0 Luck Score

Erick Fedde - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.286 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 163.0 Luck Score

Joey Cantillo - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.462 BABIP, 22.0 HR/FB, 163.0 Luck Score

Shane Drohan - 31.0 RISP H%, 0.345 BABIP, 27.0 HR/FB, 162.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Yohan Ramirez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.111 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 14.0 Luck Score

Martin Perez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.125 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 15.0 Luck Score

Braydon Fisher - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.15 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 18.0 Luck Score

Andrew Alvarez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.188 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 23.0 Luck Score

Troy Melton - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.2 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 24.0 Luck Score

Sandy Alcantara - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.212 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 27.0 Luck Score

Chad Patrick - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.222 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 29.0 Luck Score

Cade Smith - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.231 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 32.0 Luck Score

Brandon Pfaadt - 14.0 RISP H%, 0.175 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 40.0 Luck Score

Logan Webb - 7.0 RISP H%, 0.241 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 40.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 35.6% CSW%

Roki Sasaki - 72 TBF, 35.2% CSW%

Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 34.4% CSW%

Jesus Luzardo - 110 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

Cristopher Sanchez - 96 TBF, 32.3% CSW%

Sean Manaea - 101 TBF, 32.1% CSW%

Tyler Mahle - 89 TBF, 32.0% CSW%

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 31.8% CSW%

Gage Jump - 70 TBF, 31.7% CSW%

Dylan Cease - 102 TBF, 31.6% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 45.5% K%

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 41.2% K%

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 41.1% K%

Dylan Cease - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%

Sean Burke - 92 TBF, 34.8% K%

Drew Rasmussen - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%

Gage Jump - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%

Logan Henderson - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%

Paul Skenes - 88 TBF, 31.8% K%

Tyler Mahle - 89 TBF, 31.5% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 40.9% K-BB%

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 36.8% K-BB%

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%

Sean Burke - 92 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%

Drew Rasmussen - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%

Kyle Leahy - 90 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%

Logan Henderson - 68 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%

Ian Seymour - 90 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%

Tyler Mahle - 89 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%

Dylan Cease - 102 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Ryan Weathers - 93 TBF, 66.7% GB%

Framber Valdez - 108 TBF, 65.8% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 74 TBF, 61.8% GB%

Zebby Matthews - 90 TBF, 59.0% GB%

Hunter Brown - 92 TBF, 59.0% GB%

Andre Pallante - 94 TBF, 58.8% GB%

Brandon Young - 97 TBF, 58.2% GB%

Cristopher Sanchez - 96 TBF, 58.2% GB%

David Peterson - 97 TBF, 58.0% GB%

Randy Dobnak - 91 TBF, 57.5% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 41.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 52.8% GB%

Griffin Jax - 45 TBF, 40.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 58.3% GB%

Jesus Luzardo - 110 TBF, 30.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.5% GB%

Joey Cantillo - 67 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, 46.5% GB%

Kyle Hart - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 7.8 BB%, 57.6% GB%

Kyle Leahy - 90 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.2 BB%, 48.4% GB%

MacKenzie Gore - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 45.0% GB%

Payton Tolle - 67 TBF, 41.8 K%, 3.0 BB%, 48.6% GB%

Trevor Williams - 47 TBF, 29.8 K%, 4.3 BB%, 56.7% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Trevor Rogers - +3.3% CSW%, -5.8 BB%

Sean Burke - +2.8% CSW%, -3.4 BB%

Jacob Lopez - +2.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%

Kyle Leahy - +2.6% CSW%, -4.7 BB%

Tyler Mahle - +4.5% CSW%, -1.8 BB%

Ryan Gusto - +2.5% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

Roki Sasaki - +6.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%

Christian Scott - +3.3% CSW%, -2.6 BB%

Payton Tolle - +4.8% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Gavin Williams - +3.8% CSW%, -3.5 BB%

Jacob Misiorowski - +5.5% CSW%, -4.6 BB%

Tyler Phillips - +3.8% CSW%, -2.9 BB%

Trevor Richards - +2.2% CSW%, -1.5 BB%

Erick Fedde - +3.3% CSW%, -5.0 BB%

Tanner Gordon - +5.8% CSW%, -2.3 BB%

Brayan Bello - +2.9% CSW%, -8.4 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

Austin Riley (ATL) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR

Corbin Carroll (ARI) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Corey Seager (TEX) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Dansby Swanson (CHC) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Spencer Jones (NYY) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Willson Contreras (BOS) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Hardest Hit Balls

Colson Montgomery (CWS) - 113.6mph - single

Jo Adell (CLE) - 112.7mph - grounded_into_double_play

Gary Sanchez (MIL) - 112.3mph - double

Cam Smith (HOU) - 110.6mph - field_out

Jake Burger (TEX) - 110.6mph - field_out

Agustin Ramirez (MIA) - 110.6mph - double

Austin Riley (ATL) - 110.4mph - double

Jose Siri (LAA) - 110.1mph - double

Andrew Pinckney (WSH) - 110.0mph - single

Drake Baldwin (ATL) - 109.5mph - single

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Riley Greene - 66 PA, 0.258 wOBA, 0.363 xwOBA, 0.105 Diff

Gunnar Henderson - 77 PA, 0.275 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff

Garrett Mitchell - 71 PA, 0.235 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff

Nasim Nunez - 70 PA, 0.18 wOBA, 0.265 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff

Jose Ramirez - 64 PA, 0.251 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff

Brandon Marsh - 74 PA, 0.194 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff

Jose Fermin - 64 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, 0.078 Diff

JJ Wetherholt - 86 PA, 0.291 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff

Cal Raleigh - 62 PA, 0.26 wOBA, 0.337 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff

Taylor Ward - 69 PA, 0.212 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff

Bottom 10

Cedric Mullins II - 56 PA, 0.318 wOBA, 0.197 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff

Alex Bregman - 84 PA, 0.469 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff

Chandler Simpson - 71 PA, 0.355 wOBA, 0.25 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff

Cam Smith - 63 PA, 0.408 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff

Brandon Lowe - 77 PA, 0.377 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff

Mickey Moniak - 63 PA, 0.334 wOBA, 0.246 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff

Jacob Young - 58 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff

Chase Meidroth - 68 PA, 0.42 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff

Kevin McGonigle - 85 PA, 0.383 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, -0.082 Diff

Ceddanne Rafaela - 87 PA, 0.394 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, -0.074 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Pete Alonso: 38.0 PA, +0.196 xwOBA OE

Wilyer Abreu: 34.0 PA, +0.161 xwOBA OE

Jake McCarthy: 41.0 PA, +0.139 xwOBA OE

Julio Rodriguez: 33.0 PA, +0.127 xwOBA OE

Griffin Conine: 32.0 PA, +0.123 xwOBA OE

Jackson Chourio: 40.0 PA, +0.119 xwOBA OE

Gunnar Henderson: 39.0 PA, +0.114 xwOBA OE

Jac Caglianone: 35.0 PA, +0.113 xwOBA OE

Austin Riley: 33.0 PA, +0.107 xwOBA OE

Eugenio Suarez: 30.0 PA, +0.098 xwOBA OE

Bryce Harper: 46.0 PA, +0.084 xwOBA OE

Alec Burleson: 35.0 PA, +0.082 xwOBA OE

Bryson Stott: 44.0 PA, +0.08 xwOBA OE

Angel Martinez: 30.0 PA, +0.078 xwOBA OE

Jackson Merrill: 42.0 PA, +0.077 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Jonah Heim: 32.0 PA, -0.158 xwOBA OE

Tommy Edman: 33.0 PA, -0.156 xwOBA OE

Tommy White: 30.0 PA, -0.148 xwOBA OE

Vaughn Grissom: 31.0 PA, -0.144 xwOBA OE

Otto Lopez: 36.0 PA, -0.135 xwOBA OE

Spencer Horwitz: 30.0 PA, -0.132 xwOBA OE

Zach Neto: 40.0 PA, -0.13 xwOBA OE

Jake Cronenworth: 42.0 PA, -0.116 xwOBA OE

Christian Yelich: 30.0 PA, -0.114 xwOBA OE

Cole Young: 32.0 PA, -0.112 xwOBA OE

Taylor Ward: 32.0 PA, -0.112 xwOBA OE

George Springer: 31.0 PA, -0.108 xwOBA OE

Osleivis Basabe: 35.0 PA, -0.108 xwOBA OE

David Hamilton: 34.0 PA, -0.105 xwOBA OE

Michael Massey: 32.0 PA, -0.105 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Spencer Jones - 54 PA, 34 BIP, 9 Brls, 26.5 Brl%

Matt Olson - 85 PA, 49 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.5 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 63 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 75 PA, 53 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.5 Brl%

Munetaka Murakami - 80 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 51 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%

Cal Raleigh - 62 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 92 PA, 51 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.6 Brl%

Taylor Trammell - 56 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%

Austin Riley - 72 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Pete Alonso - 75 PA, 0.454 xwOBA

Drew Gilbert - 52 PA, 0.429 xwOBA

Jake Bauers - 63 PA, 0.428 xwOBA

Bryce Harper - 85 PA, 0.424 xwOBA

Spencer Jones - 54 PA, 0.421 xwOBA

Taylor Trammell - 56 PA, 0.42 xwOBA

Griffin Conine - 65 PA, 0.418 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 79 PA, 0.415 xwOBA

Bryson Stott - 78 PA, 0.406 xwOBA

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 51 PA, 0.402 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 82 PA, 163 Swings, 94.5 Cont%

Liam Hicks - 73 PA, 111 Swings, 91.9 Cont%

Mookie Betts - 70 PA, 107 Swings, 90.7 Cont%

Javier Sanoja - 57 PA, 106 Swings, 90.6 Cont%

Alex Bregman - 84 PA, 134 Swings, 89.6 Cont%

Jose Ramirez - 64 PA, 124 Swings, 89.5 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 76 PA, 123 Swings, 89.4 Cont%

Chandler Simpson - 71 PA, 118 Swings, 89.0 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 65 PA, 100 Swings, 89.0 Cont%

Sam Antonacci - 65 PA, 117 Swings, 88.9 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Chandler Simpson - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Tim Tawa - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Andres Gimenez - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Bryson Stott - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Cedric Mullins - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jose Fermin - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Taylor Walls - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jeff McNeil - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Caleb Durbin - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Wilyer Abreu - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jarren Duran - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jackson Holliday - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Jac Caglianone - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Lawrence Butler - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Brice Turang - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Garrett Mitchell - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Chandler Simpson - 11 Attempts (11 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 8 Attempts (8 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 8 Attempts (5 steals)

Otto Lopez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Xavier Edwards - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Tyler Tolbert - 7 Attempts (7 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Josh Naylor - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 7 Attempts (7 steals)

Andres Gimenez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Corbin Carroll - 93 PA, 18.3 K%, 14.3 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 79 PA, 19.0 K%, 17.7 Brl%

Jake Bauers - 63 PA, 15.9 K%, 16.3 Brl%

Junior Caminero - 80 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.8 Brl%

Luis Garcia Jr. - 65 PA, 12.3 K%, 18.5 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 24.5 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Jackson Merrill - 107 PA, +0.095 xwOBA

Steven Kwan - 101 PA, +0.073 xwOBA

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 109 PA, +0.068 xwOBA

Bryson Stott - 100 PA, +0.067 xwOBA

Jose Fermin - 82 PA, +0.058 xwOBA

Willi Castro - 86 PA, +0.057 xwOBA

Austin Riley - 97 PA, +0.055 xwOBA

Andruw Monasterio - 88 PA, +0.055 xwOBA

Wilyer Abreu - 106 PA, +0.054 xwOBA

Royce Lewis - 100 PA, +0.051 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

Willi Castro - 86 PA, +11.6 Brl%

Austin Riley - 97 PA, +11.4 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 82 PA, +10.9 Brl%

Matt Olson - 113 PA, +9.4 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 107 PA, +8.0 Brl%

Luis Garcia Jr. - 84 PA, +7.7 Brl%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 118 PA, +6.6 Brl%

Dylan Crews - 100 PA, +6.2 Brl%

Christian Yelich - 86 PA, +6.1 Brl%

Daylen Lile - 93 PA, +5.8 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Josh Naylor - 89 PA, +10.2 Cont%

Jac Caglianone - 89 PA, +9.8 Cont%

Nasim Nunez - 94 PA, +9.2 Cont%

Cole Young - 101 PA, +8.9 Cont%

Travis Bazzana - 93 PA, +8.4 Cont%

Lawrence Butler - 89 PA, +8.4 Cont%

Jose Altuve - 92 PA, +6.9 Cont%

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 109 PA, +6.8 Cont%

Randy Arozarena - 104 PA, +6.8 Cont%

Otto Lopez - 98 PA, +5.1 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Jac Caglianone - 89 PA, -11.9 K%

Nasim Nunez - 94 PA, -11.4 K%

Cole Young - 101 PA, -9.4 K%

Isaac Paredes - 104 PA, -9.0 K%

Nathan Church - 83 PA, -8.1 K%

Randy Arozarena - 104 PA, -7.8 K%

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 109 PA, -7.8 K%

George Springer - 94 PA, -7.7 K%

Spencer Torkelson - 101 PA, -6.9 K%

Elly De La Cruz - 108 PA, -6.6 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Jake Mangum: +2.8

Justin Crawford: +2.7

Jacob Wilson: +2.62

Alec Burleson: +2.6

Alec Bohm: +2.6

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

JJ Wetherholt: -4.2

David Hamilton: -3.25

Freddie Freeman: -3.12

Tyler Stephenson: -2.8

Steven Kwan: -2.4

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 0.414 xwOBA, 18.2% Brl%, 84.4% Contact%, 17.8% Chase%, 10.5% K%

Gunnar Henderson - 0.434 xwOBA, 11.8% Brl%, 76.6% Contact%, 16.3% Chase%, 14.5% K%

JJ Wetherholt - 0.397 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 86.2% Contact%, 11.9% Chase%, 13.1% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Noelvi Marte - 36.5% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.953 Cold Rating

Jimmy Crooks III - 33.8% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.923 Cold Rating

Dane Myers - 34.3% Whiff%, 77.3% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating

Heliot Ramos - 37.2% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.917 Cold Rating

Jose Tena - 35.6% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.909 Cold Rating

Luis Robert - 34.2% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating

Wyatt Langford - 31.3% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.874 Cold Rating

Riley Greene - 31.1% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.874 Cold Rating

Esmerlyn Valdez - 41.9% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.87 Cold Rating

Grant McCray - 37.0% Whiff%, 70.6% Weak%, 0.869 Cold Rating

Minor League Reports

Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday

David Fry (CLE): 3/4, 3R, 2HR, 6RBI, 0SB, 41FPts

Garrett Spain (MIN): 3/3, 3R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 39FPts

Ralphy Velazquez (CLE): 3/5, 3R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 39FPts

Riley Adams (WSH): 4/5, 2R, 1HR, 6RBI, 0SB, 37FPts

Max Wagner (TEX): 2/5, 2R, 1HR, 6RBI, 1SB, 34FPts

Cristian Hernandez (MIA): 3/5, 1R, 0HR, 3RBI, 2SB, 33FPts

Payton Green (MIA): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 2SB, 32FPts

Cristofer Torin (ARI): 3/5, 3R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 32FPts

Eric Wagaman (NYM): 3/4, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 32FPts

Collin Price (HOU): 2/5, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 32FPts

Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday

Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 0ER, 8K, 2BB, 29FPts

Joseph Dzierwa (BAL): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 1H, 0ER, 7K, 3BB, 29FPts

Herick Hernandez (ATL): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 2H, 2ER, 11K, 4BB, 28FPts

Yhoiker Fajardo (STL): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 0ER, 5K, 2BB, 23FPts

Ryan Gallagher (MIN): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 7K, 1BB, 22FPts

Andrew Sears (DET): 0 Pitches, 4IP, 2H, 0ER, 7K, 2BB, 22FPts

Konner Eaton (COL): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 6K, 2BB, 20FPts

Jack Wenninger (NYM): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 2H, 2ER, 8K, 4BB, 19FPts

Drew Thorpe (CWS): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 6K, 0BB, 19FPts

Nick Hull (SEA): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 6H, 2ER, 7K, 1BB, 19FPts

AA-AAA OPS Leaders

Cooper Ingle (AAA - CLE) 338 PA 1.026 OPS

Danny Serretti (AAA - ARI) 330 PA 0.988 OPS

Sean Keys (AAA - TOR) 363 PA 0.974 OPS

Franklin Arias (AAA - BOS) 400 PA 0.97 OPS

Josue De Paula (AA - LAD) 484 PA 0.967 OPS

Blake Burke (AAA - MIL) 441 PA 0.966 OPS

Turner Hill (AAA - SF) 407 PA 0.955 OPS

James Tibbs III (AAA - LAD) 494 PA 0.954 OPS

Christian Moore (AAA - LAA) 385 PA 0.954 OPS

Jack Pineda (AAA - KC) 305 PA 0.953 OPS

Owen Ayers (AAA - CHC) 364 PA 0.952 OPS

Alex Binelas (AA - PHI) 426 PA 0.95 OPS

Xavier Isaac (AA - TB) 380 PA 0.943 OPS

Marco Luciano (AAA - NYY) 376 PA 0.934 OPS

Charlie Condon (AAA - COL) 453 PA 0.933 OPS

Brett Squires (AAA - KC) 429 PA 0.933 OPS

Lazaro Montes (AAA - SEA) 472 PA 0.932 OPS

Ben Ross (AAA - MIN) 424 PA 0.929 OPS

Pablo Reyes (AAA - LAA) 349 PA 0.926 OPS

Brooks Brannon (AA - BOS) 316 PA 0.925 OPS

AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders

Kade Anderson (AA - SEA) 87 IP 37.1% K-BB

Jace Beck (AAA - MIA) 79 IP 24.8% K-BB

Brett Sears (AA - ATL) 86 IP 24.3% K-BB

Gage Ziehl (AAA - BOS) 86 IP 23.2% K-BB

Adam Seminaris (AA - PHI) 105 IP 22.3% K-BB

Carlos Pena (AA - DET) 85 IP 21.7% K-BB

Xavier Rivas (AAA - NYY) 82 IP 20.6% K-BB

Matt Wilkinson (AAA - SF) 81 IP 20.2% K-BB

John Holobetz (AAA - BOS) 92 IP 20.0% K-BB

Brandon White - 681449 (AAA - MIA) 90 IP 19.9% K-BB

Daniel Eagen (AA - STL) 93 IP 19.9% K-BB

Jose Cabrera - 703615 (AAA - ARI) 81 IP 19.8% K-BB

Brendan Beck (AAA - NYY) 115 IP 19.7% K-BB

Joe Whitman (AAA - SF) 92 IP 19.0% K-BB

Jonathan Santucci (AAA - NYM) 100 IP 18.8% K-BB

Logan Allen - 671106 (AAA - CLE) 94 IP 18.6% K-BB

Tyson Hardin (AAA - MIL) 101 IP 18.5% K-BB

Cesar Perdomo (AAA - SF) 99 IP 18.5% K-BB

Jackson Nezuh (AAA - HOU) 84 IP 17.8% K-BB

Connor McCullough (AA - CWS) 80 IP 17.4% K-BB

Today’s SP Streamer Picks

Keider Montero (47.0% Owned): Projected 5.23IP 2.29ER 3.55SO 1.48BB 11.3FPts

Max Scherzer (8.0% Owned): Projected 5.29IP 2.49ER 3.4SO 1.85BB 10.4FPts

Tyler Phillips (5.0% Owned): Projected 4.92IP 2.44ER 3.19SO 1.98BB 9.34FPts

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

Cam Smith - 27 PA, 1.204 OPS

Griffin Conine - 32 PA, 1.13 OPS

Jacob Young - 34 PA, 1.114 OPS

Richie Palacios - 29 PA, 1.089 OPS

Josh Bell - 40 PA, 1.079 OPS

Angel Martinez - 30 PA, 1.043 OPS

Zach McKinstry - 28 PA, 1.012 OPS

Ryan McMahon - 28 PA, 0.994 OPS

Tyler O’Neill - 30 PA, 0.982 OPS

Matt McLain - 27 PA, 0.979 OPS

Today’s Hitter Streamer Picks

Jake Mangum CF (24.0% Owned): Projected 0.68R 0.08HR 0.5RBI 0.65SO 0.25BB 0.22SB 8.9FPts

Ronny Simon 2B (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.13HR 0.62RBI 0.49SO 0.42BB 0.22SB 8.69FPts

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

We crushed yesterday’s card and, frankly, got hosed on Junior only getting one home run. They basically didn’t pitch to him after that. He should have had two, but again, if you ever see me bet a full unit on a home run prop, know that I think it is massively EV that day. Burt got us to 8 Ks. Should have had 9. Also, I am freaking bitter. I really needed his win at the NFBC, and those jerks in the bullpen just blew it the second they took him out. Also, Jake Irvin still sucks.

All right, we got a really interesting spot today that Jon told me to take a look at, and I did, and I actually really like what I see. Here’s what we got: George Klassen is throwing against the Rangers today. We project him at 5.7 Ks, and here’s the interesting part: he had a 32% whiff rate in his couple outings so far. It just hasn’t translated to the Ks, but add that in with a 13.6 swinging strike percentage, and it’s gonna add up. Then you go into the 2026 season for Texas, and 7 out 9 guys in their lineup against right-handed pitching strikes out at over a 20% clip. Remember, this is really the guy they picked up for Estevez when he was traded. In the minors, he’s had an 11K/9, and his stuff really is electric. It’s an upper-90s fastball. He’s going to get some run here at the end of the season. I think this is a super buy low spot

George Klassen LAA O 4.5k -109 1u DK and O 5.5k +197 1u DK

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Weather

No concerns.

Game Data

No Sacramento on the board tonight! So it’s a slate where research actually helps. The last couple nights it was as simple as jamming in Rays and avoiding the disappointing start from the stud arm.

Your Four teams over a 5.0 implication, and more than 0.5 runs above the #5 team:

Dodgers vs. Royals (Lynch / Bullpen Game)

Lynch might be transitioning to a starter’s role now for the Royals as they try to finish out this brutal year they’ve had. He threw 37 pitches last time and pitched into the second. But he’s 2-3 innings max tonight and then the bad Royals bullpen follows. And Lynch is nothing special in own right, although you do like his chances of getting through a couple innings relatively unscathed.

A point on that Royals bullpen - it’s ranked dead last on the day:

30th of 30 bullpens going today/tonight; you can’t be worse than that!

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LEGEND

• Anchor Arms - General consensus is they are going to dominate the matchup.

• Send it Guys - Expect a solid performance. Thanks to either a favorable matchup or just a hot hand.

• Danger Zone - Could be an awesome start with a solid amount of upside, but it’s not a comfortable matchup.

• Desperation Station - A super unfavorable matchup, but you are desperate for points, so you start them anyway.

• Hard Pass - Dudes I don’t have any interest in starting.

DISCLAIMER - Starters subject to change; we use the best information we have available to project who will be starting on a given day.

Thursday August 13th

ANCHOR ARMS

• Jacob DeGrom @ LAA

• Logan Gilbert @ NYY

• Max Fried vs Seattle - Projections are still a bit low on him, but he’s been good enough for me in his last two starts to come back as an Anchor Arm. Especially since he tossed 90 pitches last time out.

SEND IT GUYS

• Payton Tolle @ Toronto - Big-time start last time out, 14 K’s; start ‘em.

  

• Parker Messick @ Detroit - He’s been dealing in August; solid road matchup.

• Kevin Gausman @ Washington - Gas man had a solid first impression for the Wrigley faithful. Should be a solid spot against a much worse Nat’s offense.

DANGER ZONE

• Braxton Ashcraft @ Miami - Hasn’t been good lately and even worse on the road.

• Taj Bradley vs Philadelphia - Scary matchup; projections don’t mind the spot. NOTE: This is the Field of Dreams game! I’m not sure what park factors are like here.

• Cade Cavalli vs CHC - Tough matchup against the Cubbies.

DESPERATION STATION

• Roki Sasaki vs Milwaukee - Brew Crew bats haven’t been as hot lately. Good spot at home for Roki.

• Walbert Urena vs Texas

• Max Scherzer vs Boston - Probably should be a Hard Pass against this Sox offense. Projections like him.

• Aaron Nola @ Minnesota - Field of Dreams game.

• Shane Drohan @ LAD - His August has been awful.

HARD PASS

• Keider Montero vs Cleveland - Walks are wayyyy up in August.

• Andrew Abbott @ CWS - I’m stacking Sox in DFS tomorrow.

• Tyler Phillips vs Pittsburgh - He honestly hasn’t been that bad. He just doesn’t go deep enough in games to give you a chance. Hasn’t thrown over 70 pitches the last two times out.

• Davis Martin vs Cincinnati

Paywall here, subscribe today to get the rest of the weekend!

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Atlanta Braves

Closer: Raisel Iglesias

Iglesias isn’t moving off his role as closer. One of the better option in the league. Up to 24 saves on the year.

Holders: Tyler Kinley, Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez (15 day IL expected return - unknown), Didier Fuentes

It is still unknown when Suarez will return, so Dylan Lee remains an elite holds option. Kinley is next, but I wouldn’t make him a high priority.

Miami Marlins

Closer: Pete Fairbanks

Fairbanks should remain the closer for the rest of the season. He has 17 saves on the year but none in the last week. The Marlins just aren’t good enough to make him a reliable source of saves.

Holders: Michael Peterson

Removing Calvin Faucher. The Marlins have no saves and no holds in the last week. As an entire team, that is embarrassing. Peterson still has 18 holds on the season, so at least that is a bit respectable.

New York Mets

Closer: Committee (Devin Williams 15 day IL - expected return late August)

Williams is injured so the Mets will make up the saves with a plethora of guys. Kodai Senga recorded the most recent save. I wouldn’t feel confident trying to pinpoint who they will favor while Williams is out.

Holders: None

The Mets bullpen was decimated at the trade deadline. They have almost an entirely new staff in the pen. I don’t feel confident in recommending anyone, but I wanted to shine a light on Yan in case someone out there is living under a rock. He is so funny on the mound with his celebrations.

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The Rays just don’t miss. Whenever they’re supposed to smash, they smash. 22 runs in two games in Sacramento now with one left to play this afternoon.

And they did with Taylor Walls and Carson Williams grabbing three homers and six RBI. That is funny. Walls has 24 career homers, and two of those came last night. They were the first two of his MLB season this year. He’s hitting .216/.305/.300 this year, that’s a higher OBP than SLG even after the two dingers. The guy has a .198/.289/.298 slash line since 2021.

Going back to 2021 and requiring 1,000 PAs, Walls is the 8th-worst hitter in baseball by wRC+.

Worst Hitters Since 2021

1. Austin Hedges 47 wRC+

2. Nick Allen 55

3. Martin Maldonado 60

4. Garrett Hampson 66

5. Kevin Newman 70

6. Michael Toglia 70

7. Brenton Dyle 70

8. Taylor Walls 71

9. Patrick Bailey 72

10. Christian Vazquez

This is a list mostly of catchers and Rockies. But with the Wander Franco career derailment, and Walls' defensive abilities, he’s been in the Majors enough to play some games every year and get his way to almost 2,000 PAs.

Carson Williams didn’t even start in the game but subbed in for Junior Caminero when it got out of hand, and he hit his first homer of the year. He has a .154/.201/.316 slash line in 146 PAs in MLB the last two years. He’s a defensive wiz, one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, we think. If he could only hit .220 or something, he’d be their starting shortstop, but he hasn’t been able to do that with a 39% K%. But playing the Athletics in Sacramento is something like playing a bad AAA team.

It’s kind of embarrassing for baseball at this point. 30 teams, more than 10 billion dollars in yearly revenue for MLB, and here we are playing games in minor league parks with teams that have like a handful of pitchers who should actually be in the Major Leagues.

Six dingers for the Rays last night. Yandy, Caminero, and Mesa added one each to the three from Walls and Williams.

And we have one more year of games in Sacramento. I’m ready to be done with it.

It’s even worse because the Athletics can’t even score runs there anymore. Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers are done for the year (not confirmed with Kurtz but very probable), and they got complete-game’d by Nick Martinez last night.

The Padres were the other big scoring offense of the night. 17 hits, 11 runs against a good Brewers pitching staff. That was pretty surprising in San Diego.

I would not want to stream pitchers against the Padres any longer. They have really gotten it together.

Big game from Luis Campusano, so it was just an all-time night for the league’s worst hitters. But three hits for Machado, two for Merrill, two more for France, and a big four-RBI game from Luis Rengifo of all people.

Kyle Harrison got romped here.

That was a surprise. Ten hits, eight runs, just three strikeouts after he mowed down ten last time in five innings. That sent his ERA from 2.84 to 3.47.

This was his second eight-run allowance of the year, but that first one was in the ridiculous Las Vegas series which shouldn’t even count.

Harrison’s velo was down yesterday:

His SwStr% was way down (7.8%), and he got TRUCKED for three homers and a .422 xwOBA on a 35.6% Strike%. Terrible stuff from Harrison. You wonder if he’s healthy. He just came off the IL and had to leave that first start early. So you might be puckering the cheeks a bit right now if you were counting on him for the fantasy playoffs this year.

Paul Skenes - 5.0IP 5H 1ER 2R 4K 1BB

Fine box score result, but it’s panic time nonetheless. They yanked him after 65 pitches. He got four whiffs and had his lowest fastball velo of the year.

Is he hurt? Are the Pirates waving the white flag on the season and shutting him down? Should the Pirates just jab him with microneedles until something gets fixed? We’ll see ya next year, Pirates. Or will we?

Speaking of low whiffs. Just three for Nolan McLean.

→ 6.0IP 1H 1ER 1R 3K 2BB

Didn’t get strikeouts either, but still a clean six innings with a 0.5 WHIP. Not sure how he pulled that off. A 44.7% Strike%, a 3:2 K:BB, that usually turns out very badly but that dude just doesn’t follow the rules.

Hunter Brown - 5.0IP 5H 3ER 3R 4K 3BB

This was a disappointment to given the matchup with the Giants in AT&T Park. 44.9% Strike%, six whiffs, 6.7% SwStr%, 89 pitches to get 15 outs.

He has not had a good season. I couldn’t really victory lap Brown from the pre-season before because of the time he missed due to injury. But I think I can call it a win now.

3.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 10.9% K-BB%, 1.2 HR/9. That’s not a good pitcher. There’s plenty of hope for the future, but I’ve always viewed him as more of an SP3 for fantasy leagues rather than the SP1 price he was taken at this year. So I got some things right this year.

A bad start (relatively) from Dylan Cease.

→ 5.0IP 5H 3ER 3R 7K 4BB

Still ripped off seven strikeouts, but four walks, five hits, three runs. It was just 14 fantasy points, his fourth time below 15, and the first time since mid-May.

The Red Sox can do no wrong. Except I guess they can because they lost this game.

And their second loss in a row to the lowly Blue Jays. Who led off with Charles McAdoo and Brett Bateman.

Talk about a World Series hangover season.

Now for some good news.

Sean Burke - 7.0IP 3H 1ER 1R 8K 0BB

20 whiffs for Burke against the Reds. The MLB DW projections had Burke ahead of Cease, and that looks pretty sharp now. He was a DFS fixture for me last night and I had a pretty nice night.

21.3% SwStr%, 26.6% Ball% oh boy! That was only the 28th start of the year from an SP where they went 20%+ SwStr% and sub-28% Ball%. Very impressive stuff from Burke, who has somehow become an ace for the White Sox.

Cody Bradford - 7.0IP 5H 3ER 3R 1K 1BB

Uncommon start here. Seven innings, five hits, three runs, ONE strikeouts. This is the Bradford approach. He throws a ton of strikes and lets the ball get into play and hopes for the best.

He’s going to be a pretty good WHIP pitcher; we’ve liked him for a long time for that, but the K% is not going to be good, and the ERA will be mediocre at best since he’s allowing so much potential trouble with all the balls being hit into play.

He was a streaming pick yesterday. And I guess you’ll take it. Quality start, not a horrible ERA, and seven innings. But if you don’t benefit from the quality start, you didn’t get much to like here with the single strikeout. But he gets the Athletics next!

Nick Lodolo - 4.0IP 5H 4ER 4R 5K 0BB

He’s back again. 13 whiffs, 18.6% SwStr% in this one with a 34.3% Ball%. That’s some good news. But five hits, four runs, and THREE homers allowed is the bad news.

The White Sox got dingers from Brenton Doyle, Edgar Quero, and Miguel Vargas.

But I’m kinda encouraged by it. He had a 58% GB% with those good strike numbers. Sometimes you’ll give up a few homers. This was at least a step in the right direction for Lodolo in terms of SwStr% and Ball%.

The curveball is still very good; he just has to find the fastball location again. That’s been the real problem for him.

Eury Perez - 7.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 7K 2BB

Great stuff from Eury against the Pirates. 15 whiffs, 15% SwStr% (that means he threw 100 pitches), and a 7:2 K:BB. Ball% was a little high (38%), but the Pirates couldn’t get anything going against him whatsoever.

Eury since getting off the IL: 2.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 19.4% K-BB%, 0.33 HR/9

Looking like a fantasy ace, I think he’ll be a top 20 SP in drafts next year.

Blake Snell - 6.0IP 3H 1ER 1R 10K 1BB

Did not expect this! A 10:1 K:BB from an efficient Snell. Took him just 84 pitches to get those 18 outs. The Dodgers bullpen blew his win but the Dodgers won the game late.

96.2 on the fastball, 35% Ball%, whiffs on all of his pitches. Looked like prime Snell there. There’s never a guarantee with him, but if you’ve been holding onto him, you should feel very good about this start.

Mitch Bratt - 6.0IP 4H 2ER 2R 4K 1BB

Qualbanger from Bratt who has had two pretty good starts now after a really rough start to his MLB season.

His last two starts:

Pretty good numbers. .221 xwOBA allowed, 49% Strike%, 34% Ball%, .160 xBA.

The GB% at 25% is bothersome; he’s a fly ball pitcher that isn’t getting many whiffs. So I wouldn’t add him, but he’s a pretty decent prospect for the Diamondbacks and could end up figuring it out enough to be worth a spot in their rotation next year. No real upside with him for fantasy leagues, though.

Ryan Weathers - 5.67IP 2H 1ER 1R 4K 3BB

Not efficient. 106 pitches to get through 5.2 innings. He gave up a homer, just his second since June 24th. His last nine starts have been good:

The K-BB% is down from 21% to 16% in this sample, but he’s fixed the home run problem with that .39 HR/9, and maybe that’s the most important thing for a dude pitching in New York.

Bryan Woo - 5.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 5K 1BB

Just when we all started talking about his crazy home/road splits, he throws five scoreless on the road against a bad Yankees lineup.

A 9.8% SwStr% was bad, but a 58.7% Strike% was elite. He really had the command dialed in and threw a ton of strikes to a lineup that just isn’t much of a threat these days.

Martin Perez - 6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 2K 3BB

This freak’ guy has a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this yaer despite an 18.6% K% and 10% BB%. He was CUT earlier this year but now you look back and would have to say he’s been the Braves second-best pitcher on the year.

Ground balls, weak contact… that’s how Perez gets it done. It’s hard to believe it can continue like this, but it kinda just has.

Andre Pallante - 6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 2K 3BB

Another shutout performance with low K’s. Pallante is a weirdo pitcher, man.

Super useful season from him. The Cardinals are thrilled to get a 3.53 ERA out of him in 130 innings. The key for him is ground balls and that super low HR/9. He’s given up 10 homers all year and ZERO in his last five starts.

The Cardinals have gotten a decent ERA from their rotation which has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league.

Their starters have the fifth-lowest K% in the league at 19.8%:

But the 3.97 ERA is tenth-best. Ground balls matter. They have a team 46% GB%. That’s third-best in baseball.

Top Team GB% - Pitchers

1. SF 46.2%

2. NYY 45.8%

3. STL 45.6%

4. PHI 45.4%

5. DET 45.0%

The lowest in the league:

1. ATH 37.9%

2. HOU 39.1%

3. TB 40.3%

4. COL 40.4%

5. MIN 40.4%

I know the Athletics were put in a weird spot by having to do this weird ballpark transition and stuff without much money to spend on their roster, but you’d think they’d have prioritized getting some ground balls from their pitching staff in year two here in Sacramento.

It’s made worse by the fact that their hitters have the third-highest GB% in the league. So they’re doing it exactly backward. But enough Athletics hate for today.

Top Hitters

The Orioles got a couple dingers from the middle of the order.

Here’s the profile on Christian Encarnacion-Strand, the longest name in the league. And yes, I did confirm that:

The longest pitcher name is Simeon Woods Richardson at 23 characters, including spaces.

CES has a pretty nice 22% K%, 21.7% Brl%, and .406 xwOBA. They might have something with him here. But it’s 64 PAs, so who knows.

Alonso has been crushing the ball of late. He’s up to 26 homers.

Since July 1st:

.274/.371/.500, 7 HR, 18% Brl%, 24.5% K%, .415 xwOBA

You’re getting a nice stretch from the the Polar Bear.

And how about the damage that Esteury Ruiz has done when given the opportunity this year. He swiped and piped last night, hitting a home run off of Paul Skenes.

Here’s a stat. Esteury Ruiz leads the league in fantasy points scored per plate appearance.

The caveat there is that I had to limit it to just 150 PAs to get him in there. I’m sure he won’t do 2.87 for much longer. But look how far above the field he is! Six bombs, 28 steals…

He’s running almost every time he gets on base.

He’s super valuble for steals in leagues where you don’t have to play him in the games he doesn’t start in, which is very common.

He has a .266 AVG with a .204 xBA. The BABIP is .359. He’s so fast that he can definitely outdo his xBA, but not like this!

His career BABIP is .311, so he’s wayyy above that. And his K% is up there at 29% this year.

The walk rate is high, which doesn’t make sense either given his 48% Swing%. That’s about a league average swing rate, so it’s not a situation where he’s hunting walks. Pitchers just haven’t thrown him strikes, which really doesn’t make a lot of sense because he’s not a huge power threat.

So we’ll see major regression on AVG/OBP, and therefore steals coming from Ruiz. But I’ve had him on my home league team with daily roster changes, and he’s been a smash in that context.

Alex Bregman has found the homer swing of late.

Let’s do one of those things where I pick a very specific date to split on to make a point.

→ Before July 11th: 7 HR (59.4 PA/HR)
→ Since July 11th: 6 HR (19.3 PA/HR)

Since July 11th, he has a 4.7% Brl%. Red flag! Not barreling it anymore than usual. His air pull is 17.6%, which is not very high. His EV90 is 101.1, which is awful.

The only thing he’s doing “better” is hitting more fly balls.

Seems like kind of a fake power surge from Bregman.

But he’s been roster-worthy in most leagues. Going back to July 1st, he’s got an .825 OPS with a .270 AVG, 26 runs, 24 RBI, and those six bombs.

Jo Adell hit a dinger. Let’s check his short splits:

→ with LAA: .239/.287/.395, 23.7% K%, 3.5% BB%, 28 PA/HR
→ with CLE: .167/.344/.375, 31% K%, 15.6% BB%, 31 PA/HR

They have had him swing less:

→ with LAA: 54% Swing%
→ with CLE: 49% Swing%

So more walks with happen there. That could be good. But he’s not really stealing bags this year; hasn’t attempted one with Cleveland yet, so I don’t think we’re getting much fantasy value from Adell even on his new team.

Jacob Young with his tenth homer after having just five the previous two seasons. He’s swinging harder and trying to hit bombs this year, and it’s worked.

Pretty good ballplayer there, and a sneaky decent fantasy season if you have him like a 20-team league or something like that. OPS is up from .583 last year to .719 this year. Still not good, but better, and definitely an approach change that happened over the offseason.

Joc Pederson hit another dinger. 22 for him. Great bounce-back season from Joc.

Getting removed mid-game a lot when a lefty comes in, and DH-only eligibility makes him a tough add for fantasy leagues, but only 48 players have 20+ HR already and he’s one of them.

Pitcher Reports

Yesterdays Pitcher Debuts

Seth Martinez (BOS): 1.0IP, 2H, 1ER, 1SO, 0BB

Gary Sanchez (MIL): 1.0IP, 2H, 0ER, 0SO, 0BB

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. Sean Burke

2. Blake Snell

3. Nick Lodolo

4. Cristopher Sanchez

5. Eury Perez

6. Brandon Young

7. Dylan Cease

8. Shota Imanaga

9. Mitch Bratt

10. Bryan Woo

11. Tanner Bibee

12. Carson Whisenhunt

13. Michael Wacha

14. Ryan Johnson

15. Ryan Weathers

16. Tomoyuki Sugano

17. Jake Irvin

18. Nick Martinez

19. Drew Anderson

20. Martin Perez

21. Nolan McLean

22. Hunter Brown

23. Paul Skenes

24. Walker Buehler

25. Bailey Ober

26. Kyle Harrison

27. Patrick Sandoval

28. Cody Bradford

29. Andre Pallante

30. Mason Barnett

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Eury Perez (vs. PIT): 30.75 Points

2. Blake Snell (vs. KC): 29.1 Points

3. Sean Burke (vs. CIN): 27.95 Points

4. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. STL): 25.1 Points

5. Walker Buehler (vs. MIL): 22.5 Points

6. Nick Martinez (vs. ATH): 21.45 Points

7. Tomoyuki Sugano (vs. ARI): 19.9 Points

8. Bryan Woo (vs. NYY): 18.85 Points

9. Brandon Young (vs. MIN): 18.1 Points

10. Martin Perez (vs. NYM): 17.3 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Sean Burke (CWS): 20 Whiffs (94 Pitches)

2. Dylan Cease (TOR): 17 Whiffs (104 Pitches)

3. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 15 Whiffs (89 Pitches)

4. Eury Perez (MIA): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)

5. Blake Snell (LAD): 15 Whiffs (84 Pitches)

6. Brandon Young (BAL): 14 Whiffs (104 Pitches)

7. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 14 Whiffs (86 Pitches)

8. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 13 Whiffs (70 Pitches)

9. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 11 Whiffs (96 Pitches)

10. Ryan Weathers (NYY): 10 Whiffs (106 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Bryan Woo (SEA): 58.7 Strike%, 28.3 Ball%

2. Sean Burke (CWS): 55.3 Strike%, 26.6 Ball%

3. Mitch Bratt (ARI): 52.6 Strike%, 26.9 Ball%

4. Blake Snell (LAD): 52.4 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%

5. Ryan Johnson (LAA): 51.2 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%

6. Jake Irvin (WSH): 51.1 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%

7. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 48.6 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%

8. Tomoyuki Sugano (COL): 48.4 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%

9. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 48.3 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%

10. Brandon Young (BAL): 48.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%

11. Dylan Cease (TOR): 48.1 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%

12. Drew Anderson (DET): 47.1 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%

13. Eury Perez (MIA): 47.0 Strike%, 38.0 Ball%

14. Michael Wacha (KC): 46.9 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%

15. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 46.5 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Cody Bradford: 75 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.57 POUT

2. Nick Martinez: 101 Pitches, 27 Outs, 3.74 POUT

3. Sean Burke: 94 Pitches, 22 Outs, 4.27 POUT

4. Paul Skenes: 65 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.33 POUT

5. Mitch Bratt: 78 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.33 POUT

6. Martin Perez: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT

7. Blake Snell: 84 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.67 POUT

8. Michael Wacha: 96 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.8 POUT

9. Patrick Sandoval: 84 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.94 POUT

10. Cristopher Sanchez: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Jake Irvin’s FF velo (39 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 94.2

Bryan Woo’s FF velo (56 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 97.4

Jake Irvin’s SI velo (15 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.4

Kyle Harrison’s FF velo (44 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.3

Paul Skenes’s FF velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 95.7

Martin Perez’s FC velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.6

Tanner Bibee’s FC velo (18 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.0

Bailey Ober’s FF velo (35 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 87.1

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Bryan Woo’s FF usage (60.9%) up 13.7 points

Carson Whisenhunt’s FF usage (31.2%) up 11.4 points

Carson Whisenhunt’s CU usage (12.5%) up 11.2 points

Eury Perez’s SI usage (20.0%) up 11.3 points

Jake Irvin’s FF usage (44.3%) up 12.2 points

Jake Irvin’s ST usage (19.3%) up 16.6 points

Mason Barnett’s FF usage (64.2%) up 14.7 points

Nolan McLean’s SL usage (12.9%) up 11.8 points

Paul Skenes’s FS usage (26.2%) up 13.3 points

Ryan Johnson’s ST usage (34.5%) up 14.1 points

Ryan Weathers’s SI usage (27.4%) up 11.9 points

Ryan Weathers’s SL usage (22.6%) up 12.2 points

Walker Buehler’s FC usage (32.7%) up 11.9 points

Walker Buehler’s SI usage (27.6%) up 10.3 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Parker Messick 4-Seam Fastball: +21.1%

Eury Perez Sinker: +18.8%

Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: +18.6%

Joey Cantillo Curveball: +18.1%

Eury Perez 4-Seam Fastball: -17.6%

Robbie Ray Slider: -16.4%

Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -15.5%

Jared Jones Slider: +15.3%

Janson Junk 4-Seam Fastball: +14.9%

Aaron Nola Changeup: +14.4%

Connor Prielipp Sinker: +14.3%

Andrew Painter Sweeper: +13.8%

Michael Lorenzen Sinker: +13.7%

Bubba Chandler Slider: +13.5%

Grant Holmes 4-Seam Fastball: -13.5%

Emerson Hancock Sweeper: -13.0%

Brandon Pfaadt Changeup: +12.9%

Roki Sasaki Split-Finger: +12.8%

Noah Schultz Sweeper: -12.7%

Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%

Drew Rasmussen 4-Seam Fastball: +12.3%

Jack Perkins Cutter: +12.1%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

George Soriano - 43.0 RISP H%, 0.357 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 182.0 Luck Score

Luis Castillo - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.452 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 177.0 Luck Score

Davis Martin - 41.0 RISP H%, 0.342 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 173.0 Luck Score

Paul Skenes - 43.0 RISP H%, 0.333 BABIP, 27.0 HR/FB, 171.0 Luck Score

Nathan Eovaldi - 36.0 RISP H%, 0.343 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 170.0 Luck Score

Jared Jones - 33.0 RISP H%, 0.341 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 166.0 Luck Score

Joey Cantillo - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.462 BABIP, 22.0 HR/FB, 165.0 Luck Score

Shane Drohan - 31.0 RISP H%, 0.345 BABIP, 27.0 HR/FB, 162.0 Luck Score

Jack Perkins - 21.0 RISP H%, 0.435 BABIP, 36.0 HR/FB, 161.0 Luck Score

Jose Fermin - 33.0 RISP H%, 0.438 BABIP, 17.0 HR/FB, 160.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Yohan Ramirez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.111 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 14.0 Luck Score

Martin Perez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.125 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 16.0 Luck Score

Braydon Fisher - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.15 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 17.0 Luck Score

Troy Melton - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.192 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 22.0 Luck Score

Andrew Alvarez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.188 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 22.0 Luck Score

Sandy Alcantara - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.204 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 24.0 Luck Score

Chad Patrick - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.235 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 32.0 Luck Score

Drew Rasmussen - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.24 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 34.0 Luck Score

Logan Webb - 7.0 RISP H%, 0.241 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 40.0 Luck Score

George Kirby - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.216 BABIP, 9.0 HR/FB, 43.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 35.6% CSW%

Roki Sasaki - 72 TBF, 35.2% CSW%

Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 34.4% CSW%

Drew Rasmussen - 70 TBF, 34.3% CSW%

Jesus Luzardo - 110 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

Logan Henderson - 88 TBF, 32.6% CSW%

Cristopher Sanchez - 96 TBF, 32.3% CSW%

Sean Manaea - 101 TBF, 32.1% CSW%

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 31.8% CSW%

Reid Detmers - 80 TBF, 31.7% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 45.5% K%

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 41.2% K%

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 41.1% K%

Drew Rasmussen - 70 TBF, 38.6% K%

Dylan Cease - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%

Logan Henderson - 88 TBF, 35.2% K%

Sean Burke - 92 TBF, 34.8% K%

Max Fried - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%

Reid Detmers - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%

Gerrit Cole - 99 TBF, 32.3% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 40.9% K-BB%

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 36.8% K-BB%

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%

Drew Rasmussen - 70 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%

Logan Henderson - 88 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%

Sean Burke - 92 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%

Gerrit Cole - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%

Max Fried - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%

Kyle Leahy - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%

Ian Seymour - 90 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Ryan Weathers - 93 TBF, 66.7% GB%

Framber Valdez - 79 TBF, 66.1% GB%

Brayan Bello - 68 TBF, 62.0% GB%

Zebby Matthews - 68 TBF, 60.0% GB%

Hunter Brown - 92 TBF, 59.0% GB%

Andre Pallante - 94 TBF, 58.8% GB%

David Peterson - 70 TBF, 58.8% GB%

Brandon Young - 97 TBF, 58.2% GB%

Cristopher Sanchez - 96 TBF, 58.2% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 98 TBF, 58.0% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 41.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 52.8% GB%

Griffin Jax - 67 TBF, 34.3 K%, 6.0 BB%, 52.5% GB%

Jesus Luzardo - 110 TBF, 30.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.5% GB%

Joey Cantillo - 67 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, 46.5% GB%

Kyle Leahy - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.9 BB%, 47.9% GB%

MacKenzie Gore - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 45.0% GB%

Payton Tolle - 67 TBF, 41.8 K%, 3.0 BB%, 48.6% GB%

Will Warren - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 48.9% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Trevor Rogers - +3.3% CSW%, -5.8 BB%

Sean Burke - +2.8% CSW%, -3.4 BB%

Jacob Lopez - +2.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%

Gavin Williams - +4.6% CSW%, -5.2 BB%

Ryan Gusto - +2.5% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

Roki Sasaki - +6.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%

Kyle Leahy - +2.9% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Christian Scott - +3.3% CSW%, -2.6 BB%

Payton Tolle - +4.8% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Jacob Misiorowski - +5.5% CSW%, -4.6 BB%

Tyler Phillips - +3.8% CSW%, -2.9 BB%

Trevor Richards - +2.2% CSW%, -1.5 BB%

Erick Fedde - +3.3% CSW%, -5.0 BB%

Griffin Canning - +5.0% CSW%, -7.6 BB%

Tanner Gordon - +5.8% CSW%, -2.3 BB%

Brayan Bello - +2.9% CSW%, -8.4 BB%

Kyle Hart - +3.2% CSW%, -3.0 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

Chase DeLauter (CLE) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Eugenio Suarez (CIN) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Griffin Conine (MIA) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Gunnar Henderson (BAL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Cam Smith, Yesterday: 114.0 Previous High: 113.9

Jac Caglianone, Yesterday: 114.4 Previous High: 114.1

Hardest Hit Balls

Jac Caglianone (KC) - 114.4mph - single

Cam Smith (HOU) - 114.0mph - single

Henry Bolte (OAK) - 113.3mph - field_out

Spencer Jones (NYY) - 112.6mph - None

Cam Smith (HOU) - 112.3mph - None

Hunter Goodman (COL) - 112.1mph - double_play

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 111.9mph - None

Jose Siri (LAA) - 111.5mph - field_out

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) - 111.5mph - home_run

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 111.4mph - field_out

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Riley Greene - 70 PA, 0.262 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff

Garrett Mitchell - 72 PA, 0.232 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff

Gunnar Henderson - 81 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff

JJ Wetherholt - 85 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.379 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff

Cal Raleigh - 62 PA, 0.238 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 56 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.429 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff

Jose Fermin - 64 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.345 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff

Colt Emerson - 58 PA, 0.219 wOBA, 0.296 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff

Brandon Marsh - 73 PA, 0.209 wOBA, 0.282 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff

Taylor Ward - 74 PA, 0.229 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff

Bottom 10

Cam Smith - 60 PA, 0.428 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, -0.129 Diff

Chandler Simpson - 75 PA, 0.363 wOBA, 0.266 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff

Ceddanne Rafaela - 91 PA, 0.4 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff

Kevin McGonigle - 84 PA, 0.381 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff

C.J. Abrams - 85 PA, 0.414 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff

Mickey Moniak - 63 PA, 0.334 wOBA, 0.25 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff

Brandon Lowe - 81 PA, 0.367 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, -0.073 Diff

Teoscar Hernandez - 62 PA, 0.358 wOBA, 0.289 xwOBA, -0.069 Diff

Ezequiel Duran - 78 PA, 0.374 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, -0.069 Diff

Jeff McNeil - 57 PA, 0.373 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, -0.069 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Wilyer Abreu: 35.0 PA, +0.2 xwOBA OE

Pete Alonso: 36.0 PA, +0.198 xwOBA OE

Jackson Chourio: 39.0 PA, +0.163 xwOBA OE

Jackson Merrill: 41.0 PA, +0.126 xwOBA OE

Jake McCarthy: 41.0 PA, +0.126 xwOBA OE

Gunnar Henderson: 36.0 PA, +0.12 xwOBA OE

Julio Rodriguez: 33.0 PA, +0.113 xwOBA OE

Bryson Stott: 43.0 PA, +0.109 xwOBA OE

Jac Caglianone: 35.0 PA, +0.108 xwOBA OE

Royce Lewis: 39.0 PA, +0.092 xwOBA OE

Kyle Schwarber: 44.0 PA, +0.089 xwOBA OE

Luke Keaschall: 35.0 PA, +0.087 xwOBA OE

Bryce Harper: 46.0 PA, +0.081 xwOBA OE

Chase DeLauter: 40.0 PA, +0.075 xwOBA OE

Matt Olson: 38.0 PA, +0.075 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Evan Carter: 29.0 PA, -0.185 xwOBA OE

Dane Myers: 28.0 PA, -0.163 xwOBA OE

Zach Neto: 40.0 PA, -0.157 xwOBA OE

Tommy Edman: 36.0 PA, -0.153 xwOBA OE

Spencer Horwitz: 30.0 PA, -0.149 xwOBA OE

Tommy White: 30.0 PA, -0.142 xwOBA OE

Vaughn Grissom: 30.0 PA, -0.137 xwOBA OE

Kody Clemens: 34.0 PA, -0.133 xwOBA OE

Jonah Heim: 36.0 PA, -0.131 xwOBA OE

Otto Lopez: 35.0 PA, -0.126 xwOBA OE

Heriberto Hernandez: 28.0 PA, -0.12 xwOBA OE

Jake Cronenworth: 42.0 PA, -0.118 xwOBA OE

Dominic Canzone: 32.0 PA, -0.116 xwOBA OE

Christian Yelich: 30.0 PA, -0.114 xwOBA OE

Brandon Lowe: 36.0 PA, -0.113 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Munetaka Murakami - 80 PA, 42 BIP, 11 Brls, 26.2 Brl%

Matt Olson - 86 PA, 50 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.0 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 59 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 56 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 90 PA, 49 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.4 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 81 PA, 59 BIP, 13 Brls, 22.0 Brl%

Spencer Jones - 53 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%

Francisco Alvarez - 62 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%

Cal Raleigh - 62 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%

Luis Garcia Jr. - 66 PA, 54 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.4 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Pete Alonso - 81 PA, 0.458 xwOBA

Drew Gilbert - 51 PA, 0.44 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 78 PA, 0.436 xwOBA

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 56 PA, 0.429 xwOBA

Jake Bauers - 62 PA, 0.427 xwOBA

Bryson Stott - 78 PA, 0.423 xwOBA

Taylor Trammell - 53 PA, 0.417 xwOBA

Bryce Harper - 85 PA, 0.412 xwOBA

Yordan Alvarez - 77 PA, 0.395 xwOBA

Brady House - 47 PA, 0.394 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 82 PA, 167 Swings, 94.6 Cont%

Liam Hicks - 72 PA, 105 Swings, 92.4 Cont%

Mookie Betts - 70 PA, 105 Swings, 90.5 Cont%

Javier Sanoja - 58 PA, 105 Swings, 90.5 Cont%

Zach McKinstry - 63 PA, 99 Swings, 89.9 Cont%

Chandler Simpson - 75 PA, 124 Swings, 89.5 Cont%

Jose Ramirez - 64 PA, 122 Swings, 89.3 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 76 PA, 122 Swings, 89.3 Cont%

Keibert Ruiz - 48 PA, 74 Swings, 89.2 Cont%

Nolan Schanuel - 76 PA, 117 Swings, 88.9 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Chandler Simpson - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Andres Gimenez - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Bryson Stott - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Cole Carrigg - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Tim Tawa - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Jose Fermin - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jeff McNeil - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Mauricio Dubon - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Jac Caglianone - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jarren Duran - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Nico Hoerner - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Lawrence Butler - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Caleb Durbin - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Cedric Mullins - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Taylor Walls - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Wilyer Abreu - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jackson Holliday - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Travis Bazzana - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Chandler Simpson - 11 Attempts (11 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 8 Attempts (8 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Andres Gimenez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Xavier Edwards - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Otto Lopez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 7 Attempts (7 steals)

Cole Carrigg - 6 Attempts (5 steals)

Cedric Mullins - 6 Attempts (4 steals)

A.J. Ewing - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Caleb Durbin - 6 Attempts (4 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 6 Attempts (3 steals)

Jarren Duran - 6 Attempts (3 steals)

Jose Caballero - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Corbin Carroll - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Josh Naylor - 6 Attempts (5 steals)

Bryson Stott - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Tyler Tolbert - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Travis Bazzana - 6 Attempts (4 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Jackson Merrill - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 19.4 Brl%

Jake Bauers - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 16.7 Brl%

Luis Garcia Jr. - 66 PA, 13.6 K%, 20.4 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 81 PA, 19.8 K%, 22.0 Brl%

Taylor Trammell - 53 PA, 18.9 K%, 18.8 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Jackson Merrill - 106 PA, +0.08 xwOBA

Steven Kwan - 100 PA, +0.073 xwOBA

Bryson Stott - 100 PA, +0.071 xwOBA

Andruw Monasterio - 88 PA, +0.07 xwOBA

Jose Fermin - 83 PA, +0.067 xwOBA

Zach McKinstry - 80 PA, +0.054 xwOBA

Luke Keaschall - 89 PA, +0.053 xwOBA

Willi Castro - 82 PA, +0.052 xwOBA

Luis Rengifo - 93 PA, +0.052 xwOBA

Wilyer Abreu - 106 PA, +0.051 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

Eugenio Suarez - 82 PA, +13.5 Brl%

Willi Castro - 82 PA, +12.6 Brl%

Matt Olson - 114 PA, +8.6 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 106 PA, +8.5 Brl%

Luis Garcia Jr. - 83 PA, +8.2 Brl%

Daylen Lile - 93 PA, +7.3 Brl%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 117 PA, +6.6 Brl%

Dylan Crews - 99 PA, +6.6 Brl%

Austin Riley - 98 PA, +6.1 Brl%

Christian Yelich - 90 PA, +5.3 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Josh Naylor - 90 PA, +10.2 Cont%

Nasim Nunez - 91 PA, +9.6 Cont%

Cole Young - 101 PA, +9.3 Cont%

Jac Caglianone - 89 PA, +9.2 Cont%

Lawrence Butler - 89 PA, +8.5 Cont%

Travis Bazzana - 98 PA, +7.2 Cont%

Zach McKinstry - 80 PA, +6.7 Cont%

Christian Yelich - 90 PA, +6.0 Cont%

Daulton Varsho - 94 PA, +5.9 Cont%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 117 PA, +5.7 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Nasim Nunez - 91 PA, -12.2 K%

Zach McKinstry - 80 PA, -11.5 K%

Jac Caglianone - 89 PA, -10.8 K%

Cole Young - 101 PA, -9.5 K%

Isaac Paredes - 105 PA, -8.0 K%

Nathan Church - 81 PA, -7.9 K%

George Springer - 93 PA, -7.6 K%

Jose Fermin - 83 PA, -7.4 K%

Elly De La Cruz - 109 PA, -6.9 K%

Randy Arozarena - 104 PA, -6.8 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Alec Burleson: +2.7

Nicky Lopez: +2.67

Jake Mangum: +2.6

Jacob Wilson: +2.6

Alec Bohm: +2.5

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

JJ Wetherholt: -3.8

Munetaka Murakami: -3.12

Freddie Freeman: -2.9

Tyler Stephenson: -2.83

David Hamilton: -2.33

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 0.421 xwOBA, 16.3% Brl%, 84.7% Contact%, 17.8% Chase%, 9.8% K%

Gunnar Henderson - 0.428 xwOBA, 11.8% Brl%, 77.6% Contact%, 18.9% Chase%, 16.7% K%

JJ Wetherholt - 0.403 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 89.4% Contact%, 11.8% Chase%, 10.2% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Carlos Narvaez - 41.3% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.975 Cold Rating

Noelvi Marte - 36.6% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.941 Cold Rating

Luis Robert - 36.2% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.927 Cold Rating

Esmerlyn Valdez - 42.7% Whiff%, 72.2% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating

Jose Tena - 34.5% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.919 Cold Rating

Evan Carter - 32.1% Whiff%, 84.6% Weak%, 0.908 Cold Rating

Colson Montgomery - 36.4% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.907 Cold Rating

Taylor Trammell - 36.4% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.892 Cold Rating

Wyatt Langford - 31.4% Whiff%, 79.3% Weak%, 0.879 Cold Rating

Jake Burger - 33.7% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.872 Cold Rating

Minor League Reports

Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday

Ryan Cesarini (CLE): 3/6, 3R, 3HR, 6RBI, 0SB, 48FPts

Alex Binelas (PHI): 2/3, 2R, 2HR, 6RBI, 0SB, 38FPts

DJ Gladney (NYY): 2/5, 2R, 2HR, 6RBI, 0SB, 36FPts

Zach Ehrhard (LAD): 3/5, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2SB, 34FPts

Carson Roccaforte (KC): 2/5, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 32FPts

Justin Johnson (KC): 2/5, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 32FPts

Jefferson Rojas (NYM): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 32FPts

Conner Capel (COL): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 31FPts

Xavier Isaac (TB): 2/4, 3R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 29FPts

Aaron Walton (CLE): 1/4, 2R, 1HR, 6RBI, 0SB, 28FPts

Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday

Austin Gordon (LAA): 93 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 1ER, 8K, 1BB, 28FPts

AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL): 95 Pitches, 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 7K, 0BB, 25FPts

Edward Cabrera (CHC): 64 Pitches, 5IP, 0H, 0ER, 7K, 1BB, 24FPts

Ian Koenig (SD): 92 Pitches, 7IP, 5H, 0ER, 4K, 1BB, 24FPts

R.J. Gordon (NYM): 96 Pitches, 7IP, 5H, 1ER, 4K, 1BB, 22FPts

Rory Fox (NYY): 97 Pitches, 5IP, 5H, 1ER, 5K, 1BB, 21FPts

Rafe Schlesinger (CLE): 78 Pitches, 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 3K, 2BB, 19FPts

Cory Lewis (MIN): 61 Pitches, 4IP, 3H, 0ER, 6K, 0BB, 19FPts

Connor McCullough (CWS): 72 Pitches, 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 5K, 2BB, 18FPts

Jamie Arnold (OAK): 92 Pitches, 6IP, 5H, 3ER, 7K, 0BB, 18FPts

AA-AAA OPS Leaders

Zac Veen (AAA - COL) 445 PA 1.037 OPS

Cooper Ingle (AAA - CLE) 333 PA 1.011 OPS

Danny Serretti (AAA - ARI) 330 PA 0.988 OPS

Sean Keys (AAA - TOR) 359 PA 0.977 OPS

Franklin Arias (AAA - BOS) 396 PA 0.973 OPS

Blake Burke (AAA - MIL) 436 PA 0.968 OPS

Josue De Paula (AA - LAD) 479 PA 0.968 OPS

Alex Binelas (AA - PHI) 422 PA 0.961 OPS

Owen Ayers (AAA - CHC) 360 PA 0.959 OPS

James Tibbs III (AAA - LAD) 489 PA 0.956 OPS

Turner Hill (AAA - SF) 403 PA 0.951 OPS

Brett Squires (AAA - KC) 424 PA 0.946 OPS

Christian Moore (AAA - LAA) 381 PA 0.945 OPS

Charlie Condon (AAA - COL) 449 PA 0.939 OPS

Marco Luciano (AAA - NYY) 375 PA 0.937 OPS

Ben Ross (AAA - MIN) 419 PA 0.936 OPS

Jack Pineda (AAA - KC) 301 PA 0.934 OPS

Jack Suwinski (AAA - TB) 424 PA 0.929 OPS

Xavier Isaac (AA - TB) 375 PA 0.925 OPS

Yohandy Morales (AAA - WSH) 383 PA 0.925 OPS

AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders

Kade Anderson (AA - SEA) 87 IP 37.1% K-BB

Jace Beck (AAA - MIA) 79 IP 24.8% K-BB

Brett Sears (AA - ATL) 86 IP 24.3% K-BB

Gage Ziehl (AAA - BOS) 86 IP 23.2% K-BB

Adam Seminaris (AA - PHI) 105 IP 22.3% K-BB

Xavier Rivas (AA - NYY) 81 IP 22.0% K-BB

Carlos Pena (AA - DET) 85 IP 21.7% K-BB

Matt Wilkinson (AAA - SF) 81 IP 20.2% K-BB

John Holobetz (AAA - BOS) 92 IP 20.0% K-BB

Brandon White - 681449 (AAA - MIA) 90 IP 19.9% K-BB

Daniel Eagen (AA - STL) 93 IP 19.9% K-BB

Jose Cabrera - 703615 (AAA - ARI) 81 IP 19.8% K-BB

Brendan Beck (AAA - NYY) 115 IP 19.7% K-BB

Jackson Kent (AAA - WSH) 94 IP 19.4% K-BB

Joe Whitman (AAA - SF) 92 IP 19.0% K-BB

Jonathan Santucci (AAA - NYM) 100 IP 18.8% K-BB

Logan Allen - 671106 (AAA - CLE) 94 IP 18.6% K-BB

Tyson Hardin (AAA - MIL) 101 IP 18.5% K-BB

Cesar Perdomo (AAA - SF) 99 IP 18.5% K-BB

Jackson Nezuh (AAA - HOU) 84 IP 17.8% K-BB

Today’s SP Streamer Picks

George Klassen (4.0% Owned): Projected 5.02IP 2.0ER 5.7SO 2.1BB 16.15FPts

Tyler Mahle (22.0% Owned): Projected 5.53IP 2.4ER 5.08SO 1.86BB 14.95FPts

Zebby Matthews (15.0% Owned): Projected 5.31IP 2.63ER 5.42SO 2.05BB 14.53FPts

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

Cam Smith - 29 PA, 1.369 OPS

Jacob Young - 29 PA, 1.178 OPS

Josh Bell - 40 PA, 1.054 OPS

Masataka Yoshida - 31 PA, 1.035 OPS

Jared Young - 33 PA, 0.996 OPS

Zach McKinstry - 31 PA, 0.974 OPS

Nolan Arenado - 36 PA, 0.927 OPS

Justin Crawford - 31 PA, 0.926 OPS

Matt McLain - 28 PA, 0.905 OPS

Victor Mesa Jr. - 29 PA, 0.884 OPS

Today’s Hitter Streamer Picks

Cole Young SS (42.0% Owned): Projected 0.77R 0.15HR 0.69RBI 0.75SO 0.42BB 0.06SB 9.03FPts

Dylan Crews OF (42.0% Owned): Projected 0.7R 0.2HR 0.54RBI 0.85SO 0.36BB 0.14SB 8.88FPts

Victor Mesa Jr. CF (11.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.25HR 0.66RBI 0.94SO 0.32BB 0.1SB 8.73FPts

Jake Mangum CF (24.0% Owned): Projected 0.64R 0.08HR 0.48RBI 0.7SO 0.2BB 0.21SB 8.54FPts

Jackson Holliday SS (48.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.13HR 0.64RBI 1.07SO 0.44BB 0.12SB 8.3FPts

Dylan Beavers OF (10.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.12HR 0.63RBI 0.99SO 0.6BB 0.14SB 8.16FPts

Ronny Simon 2B (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.51R 0.13HR 0.56RBI 0.52SO 0.33BB 0.2SB 8.12FPts

Nolan Schanuel 1B (23.0% Owned): Projected 0.58R 0.12HR 0.62RBI 0.53SO 0.35BB 0.04SB 8.06FPts

Lars Nootbaar RF (9.0% Owned): Projected 0.62R 0.13HR 0.65RBI 0.6SO 0.53BB 0.04SB 7.96FPts

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Weather

Looks fine. Some rain, but no big concerns.

Big temperatures in Atlanta, Minnesota, and St. Louis. That could be good for some hitters.

Game Data

Rays vs. Mason Barnett

I’d like to live in a world where we don’t have minor league parks being used in the Major Leagues. The Rays scored ten last night are in an even better spot against Barnett tonight.

The stats aren’t too bad on Barnett:

A deeper look:

102.2 Stuff+, 25% K%, but it’s probably fake. He has a very high fly ball rate (36%) and a 10.7% SwStr% with a 39% Ball%. He’s a stack-worthy SP, and I won’t be off the Rays boat like I was last night.

Dodgers vs. Michael Wacha

It’s the debut of Blake Snell, so that’s exciting for the Dodgers. Wacha takes his 18% K% into LA. Wacha has a 12% K-BB% this year but just a 1.06 HR/9 and a 3.44 ERA. He throws a bunch of changeups and generates weak contact. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in his last four starts, and mostly he’s been fine. He definitely hasn’t been someone to go out of your way to stack against.

The Dodgers are the Dodgers, though, and the Royals bullpen is bad. So you can do it; it’s just not a total smash spot.

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Raise your hand if you bet on Hughes yesterday, who literally went over his hits, earned runs, and walks 1.1 innings into the game. It was frankly unbelievable how quick he did it. At least if he was going to crush this, he crushed us. That way Henderson was a no-sweat, and Baltimore didn’t get it done, so we’re gonna go after a couple spots today.

Well, we get Sean Burke today on what I think is a fantastic line. He’s frankly been incredible since right before the All-Star break, striking out 10, two times, 11 once. This is the number one K team versus righties in the league. He’s been putting up, overall, a 27.5 K percentage, a 12.5 swing-and-miss percent, and a 25% whiff rate. We know how much Cincinnati can strike out, and we’re getting it for plus money. That’s just entirely too much value to pass up.

Sean Burke CWS O 7.5k +120 1.5u and O 8.5k +238 1u

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FANTASY FOOTBALL

It’s about that time! My home league draft is in ten days, so I figured I’d remind you guys that I have some fantasy football content coming once the season gets going. It will be largely DFS-based, but the NFL dashboard will be running along with many other tools, projection-stuff, and more.

I started a new section of MLB Data Warehouse to host the content. I did not automatically put you all on that newsletter, you’ll have to opt in by clicking here.

It’s for paid subscribers of MLB Data Warehouse, if you’re already one of those - no further charge.

Pitchers

22 whiffs from MacKenzie Gore. He took advantage of this ridiculous Angels lineup and struck out nine. But he still couldn’t get through six innings.

→ 5.33IP 4H 1ER 1R 9K 2BB

You’ll take that. That’s a lot of strikeouts and he scored the second-most fantasy points on the night. Trout took him deep for the only run he allowed. The Angels are an ultra-streaming target right now. That’s been true all year, but it’s gotten even worse now. Here’s their box score from last night:

Tons of strikeouts from Neto, Trout, Siri, and Peraza in particular. And the guys that don’t strike out much (Schanuel and Ballestero) don’t have much pop. Here’s the upcoming  list of probables against the Angels, although it’s not updated from yesterday yet.

Eovaldi hit the IL, so he’ll be erased there when it updates. I’d be fine streaming Cody Bradford tonight and I’d be looking to get ahead of the adds on Noah Cameron and Ronel Blanco.

On the other side of that game, Reid Detmers had a nice one.

→ 6.0IP 3H 1ER 1R 6K 4BB

We thought they’d limit his workload, but that wasn’t quite the case last night. He threw 88 pitches. Earlier in the year, maybe he would have come out for the seventh. But he was efficient enough to have a very nice outing on those 88 pitches. Four walks sucks, but one run and six strikeouts against the Rangers was fine.

Christian Scott - 4.0IP 7H 4ER 4R 6K 1BB

Scott is on my teams, so this one made me mad. Six strikeouts, one walk, and no homers. And yet, seven hits and four runs allowed.

Since July 8th, he has

→ 29.1 IP
→ 38 K (30%)
→ 8 BB (6.3%)
→ 0 HR

And yet a 3.37 ERA. The three elements the pitchers control are strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and Scott has been pristine in each category. But he keeps giving up hits and runs anyway.

He has a 2.56 JA SIERA since July 1st. That’s 15th-best in the league. He has given up a .359 BABIP with a very high 36% RISP H% (a measure of strand rate, basically) in this time. He’s allowed a .200 xBA. So he’s been awesome, and it seems like a lot of repeated bad luck. The good results are coming.

He gets to face the Nationals for his next start, and I’d absolutely use him there once again.

Blade Tidwell - 5.67IP 4H 1ER 1R 6K 1BB

My boy came through! 16 whiffs, 16.7% SwStr%, 35.4% Ball%. He has been a DFS recommendation the last couple of times because he’s been as cheap as some hitters. And it worked last night.

The sweeper is his best pitch, and that thing dominated last night. A 31% SwStr%, 49% Strike%, and .122 xwOBA allowed.

The question will be about his fastballs. He mixes sinkers and four-seamers, which is good to see for a guy very reliant on the breaking ball. It worked last night, but his four-seamer does look kinda bad.

The main numbers on him for the season:

• 22.2 IP (only two starts, he was in the bullpen before recently)

• 20.9% K%

• 5.5% BB%

• 0.4 HR/9

So a 15.4% K-BB% with just one homer given up. That would work nicely. Can he sustain it in a 5+ inning role? Who knows. You usually see strikeout rates drop when you go from relief to starting. I’m not recommending him in a 12-team fantasy league right now, but he’s someone to know.

Dean Kremer - 7.0IP 1H 1ER 1R 7K 1BB

Vengeance is mine, declareth the Lord. But Kremer got some of that last night with seven crisp innings against his former team. Just one hit, one walk, and a strikeout per inning. Sweet stuff from Kremer.

With Baltimore: 24.8% K%, 7.2% BB%, .340 xwOBA
With Minnesota: 22% K%, 7.3% BB%, .235 xwOBA

That’s all of those starts with Minnesota. He has thrown more four-seamers with the Twins (21% → 39%), which I guess isn’t a great thing since his fastball isn’t very good. But maybe the Twins have tweaked it. That’s an organization that does seem to have dudes with good four-seamers even if they lack velo.

I really doubt Kremer is going to be good. We have seen too much of him being mediocre over the years to buy into it.

But hey, it’s a 17% K-BB% this year. If he can figure out how to keep the ball in the yard, he’ll be decent. And he showed that ability to get outs in the Majors last night.

Tarik Skubal - 5.0IP 4H 3ER 3R 6K 2BB

Uh-oh! Not great from Skubal. The Dodgers won the game 6-5. Skubal still had an elite 14.7% SwStr%, 31% Ball%, and .274 xwOBA allowed last night. So he pitched well (.198 xBA), just gave up a homer and didn’t get the ball hit at the guys when he needed it the most.

Skubal’s fine, I’m sure he’ll mow some dudes down in the postseason as the Dodgers make another deep run at it.

Andrew Painter - 5.33IP 2H 2ER 2R 6K 3BB

Painter made arsenal tweaks in the minors, and it’s worked so far. The new changeup has been great (23.6% SwStr%), and the fastball has survived.

Three outings since returning: 15.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 14.8% K-BB%.

I still think he has big fastball problems, but something is different and the early results are good for Painter. He’s a potential 12-team league pickup.

Noah Cameron - 5.67IP 6H 4ER 4R 2K 2BB

The Dodgers got to him and ended his elite run of things. That was mostly expected. He gets the Angels next, so if you have him - hold on. And look to pick him up this weekend if you can.

Logan Henderson - 6.33IP 5H 3ER 3R 7K 1BB

The Padres are a pretty good lineup right now, and they did enough to get to Henderson for five hits and three runs. Jackson Merrill homered again. Henderson has given up six homers in his last four games now, so that’s becoming a little bit of a problem for him. Just 11 whiffs, 12.1% SwStr%, 31.9% Ball%. So it was fine, just a not-so-great outing from a pitcher who has proven to be really, really good over his short career.

Hayden Wesneski - 7.0IP 5H 3ER 3R 4K 2BB

Efficiency from Wesneski in an elite matchup in SF. 21 outs on 83 pitches. Not a great strikeout total, just 10 whiffs, a 36.1% strike rate, but the job got done, and the Astros got a big win after getting to the Giants bullpen late.

Michael Soroka - 4.33IP 3H 0ER 0R 4K 3BB

77 pitches, not a lot of command. But he’s back now. Let’s just remind ourselves of his season numbers:

18% K-BB%, but a mediocre 11% SwStr%. The key has been the 58.5 PA/HR, he’s figured that out so far in Arizona. It’s a good place to pitch, and I suppose that Soroka’s 90% ownership is mostly warranted. I still don’t love the guy, but he’s having a nice season and now he’s healthy again.

Freddy Peralta - 6.0IP 6H 3ER 3R 5K 1BB

A quality start in Sacramento. Only 10 whiffs, 25.5% CSW%, 49% Strike%, 32.7% Ball%. The 5:1 K:BB was an improvement. But this was a really soft matchup for him even in that ballpark. You’ll take the quality start and maybe it’s a sign of good things with his new team. He’ll get some better matchups coming up. Looks like he might face the Orioles in each of his next two. So he’s a reasonable add where available if you believe in the Rays pitching development prowess.

Gabriel Hughes - 4.0IP 5H 7ER 7R 3K 3BB

Maybe the magic is over. A horrible 38.6% Strike% last night against the Snakes. I never thought we should use him in DFS or fantasy leagues, but I thought he was good enough to avoid the chalky stacks in DFS. But maybe that was wrong.

Casey Mize - 6.0IP 5H 2ER 2R 6K 2BB

Somehow he got six strikeouts with six whiffs. He did give up a homer, something he hasn’t done much of, but he made pitches when he needed to and had a good outing in the box score.

All you’ve gotta do as a Padres starter is get through six innings and limit damage. That gets you to the elite bullpen, and Matsui + Morejon + Miller take care of business after that to get the Padres another win.

Sonny Gray - 6.0IP 6H 2ER 2R 4K 1BB

He had five whiffs but still got through the Blue Jays lineup a few times for another quality start. But the Red Sox didn’t score for him!

There was some crazy sac fly weird play that happened, maybe you’ve seen that. I don’t even fully understand that. They scored a run on an inning-ending double play, or something. If you’re into quirky MLB rules, give that a look.

I guess the scoreboard showed two outs when there was one, and that caused all kinds of confusion. Even pro athletes are far too dependent on technology! The Red Sox got a run out of it, but lost the game anyways, so all is well.

Hitters

Yordan Alvarez set a new recent career-high EV at 118.5. His max from the last three years:

So that’s cool. The dude has a .323 AVG with an 18% Brl% and an 18% K%. So he’s doing things that are just silly.

Here’s every hitter with a .300 AVG in 350+ PA along with their home run totals just to show you:

He has more than double the number of homers than anyone else hitting .300, and he’s hitting way, way over .300.

You know he’ll be a first round pick again next year and some injury will happen to make that a bad pick. That’s how it goes.

But Austin Martin was the top score with 34 points. A swipe and a pipe!

That was his third homer and 12th steal. So he hasn’t done much for fantasy leagues other than his nice .355 OBP driven by an overly-patient approach that has him with a 13% BB%. He added a double there too to have a huge game against Trevor Rogers and the Orioles bullpen.

He was a former first-round pick. That happened in 2020 in that pretty poor draft:

But he’s at least become a big league regular, which you can count as a win.

Nolan Arenado hit a first inning grand slam off of Gabriel Hughes and added another single AND A STEAL. He has four steals this year to almost match six-year high (5 in 2022). 18 bombs now with a .755 OPS. At least he’s been better then the last couple of years, but .242/.322/.433, 18 HR, 4 SB isn’t a great fantasy option.

The Rays put ten runs on the board in Sacramento. Many such cases.

Yandy had athe biggest game with three hits including a homer.

Caminero added his 34th bomb, DeLuca had a big game as well, and the Rays once again worked out as the chalk DFS stack in a very friendly ballpark.

But hey, Jacob Lopez wasn’t the main problem.

→ 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

That’s pretty good! And Lopez has been really good since getting back from the minors.

Since July 10th:

You can definitely stream him on the road when you have some desperation. His next start will be at home against the Rangers and then he’ll go to Houston.

Cam Smith hit a bomb. His 16th, so a big upgrade from last year when he hit just nine in 493 PAs. He’s added 10 swipes, so he has a 20-15 season potentially brewing.

But a 25% K% and a .226 AVG… that’s bad.

His EVs aren’t the problem, it’s the launch angle business:

Just way too many balls hit right into the ground.

Needs to lift it a bit more to take advantage of his elite bat speed. It’s the Jac Caglianone and Jordan Walker situation. It took Walker forever to figure that out, and it took Cags about a year. So I’d still be buying on Cam Smith for the future.

Grand slam from Brett Baty. The Mets can hit. If they had Soto right now, they’d be cruising. It’s too little, too late, but at least they’re putting runs on the board. Here are their stats since the second half began:

Not bad, and a pretty deep lineup. I know the Mets fans don’t believe anymore, but they could be very good next year. Unless you believe in curses or whatever you believe in. Ewing + Benge + Soto + Lindor + Alvarez is a pretty strong top part of the lineup, and they won’t be afraid to upgrade the pitching staff and other spots through free agency.

Devin Williams went on the IL, and Kodai Senga picked up the save!

So maybe he’s the closer now! Or maybe it was just a weird one-off thing where he was the best available. But the Mets bullpen is all different now with Weaver, Minter, and Brazoban traded and Williams hurt. So there are some holds and saves available on waivers there.

Your entire list of home run hitters from yesterday:

Caglianone hit his 21st of the year, a nice total for his second year in the bigs, and it was off of Tarik Skubal.

Jung Hoo Lee also has ten, so that’s two more than alst year. He’s had a nice season with a .300 average, .787 OPS, ten bombs, eight steals.

And that’s what we’ve got today!

Pitcher Reports

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. MacKenzie Gore

2. Reid Detmers

3. Jameson Taillon

4. Christian Scott

5. Tarik Skubal

6. Dean Kremer

7. Blade Tidwell

8. Jacob Lopez

9. Andrew Painter

10. Logan Henderson

11. Freddy Peralta

12. Noah Cameron

13. Hayden Wesneski

14. Michael Soroka

15. Bryce Elder

16. Casey Mize

17. Hunter Dobbins

18. Sonny Gray

19. Gabriel Hughes

20. Trevor Rogers

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Dean Kremer (vs. BAL): 30.55 Points

2. MacKenzie Gore (vs. LAA): 24.39 Points

3. Andrew Painter (vs. STL): 20.99 Points

4. Blade Tidwell (vs. HOU): 19.76 Points

5. Reid Detmers (vs. TEX): 19.3 Points

6. Logan Henderson (vs. SD): 18.64 Points

7. Jacob Lopez (vs. TB): 18.15 Points

8. Casey Mize (vs. MIL): 17.3 Points

9. Hunter Dobbins - 690928 (vs. PHI): 17.05 Points

10. Zack Littell (vs. COL): 16.11 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. MacKenzie Gore (TEX): 22 Whiffs (103 Pitches)

2. Reid Detmers (LAA): 17 Whiffs (88 Pitches)

3. Blade Tidwell (SF): 16 Whiffs (96 Pitches)

4. Christian Scott (NYM): 14 Whiffs (82 Pitches)

5. Tarik Skubal (LAD): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)

6. Dean Kremer (MIN): 14 Whiffs (89 Pitches)

7. Noah Cameron (KC): 13 Whiffs (101 Pitches)

8. Bryce Elder (ATL): 12 Whiffs (105 Pitches)

9. Jacob Lopez (OAK): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)

10. Andrew Painter (PHI): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Tarik Skubal (LAD): 56.8 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%

2. Christian Scott (NYM): 52.4 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%

3. Dean Kremer (MIN): 51.7 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%

4. MacKenzie Gore (TEX): 51.5 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%

5. Alan Rangel (PHI): 50.9 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%

6. Logan Henderson (MIL): 50.5 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%

7. Freddy Peralta (TB): 49.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%

8. Blade Tidwell (SF): 49.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%

9. Casey Mize (SD): 48.2 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%

10. Andrew Painter (PHI): 47.3 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%

11. Jacob Lopez (OAK): 47.3 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%

12. Michael Soroka (ARI): 46.8 Strike%, 39.0 Ball%

13. Reid Detmers (LAA): 46.6 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%

14. Hunter Dobbins (STL): 46.4 Strike%, 41.2 Ball%

15. Zach Agnos (COL): 43.6 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Hayden Wesneski: 83 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.95 POUT

2. Dean Kremer: 89 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.24 POUT

3. Jacob Lopez: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT

4. Logan Henderson: 91 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.79 POUT

5. Casey Mize: 83 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.88 POUT

6. Reid Detmers: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT

7. Jameson Taillon: 61 Pitches, 12 Outs, 5.08 POUT

8. Sonny Gray: 99 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.5 POUT

9. Blade Tidwell: 96 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.65 POUT

10. Freddy Peralta: 98 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.76 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Noah Cameron’s FC velo (22 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 91.0

Trevor Rogers’s FF velo (35 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 95.2

Casey Mize’s FF velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.7

Hunter Dobbins’s FF velo (33 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 93.1

####Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Alan Rangel’s CH usage (56.4%) up 20.8 points

Andrew Painter’s CH usage (28.0%) up 23.5 points

Bryce Elder’s CH usage (28.6%) up 18.1 points

Casey Mize’s SL usage (31.3%) up 11.5 points

Freddy Peralta’s CH usage (36.7%) up 15.1 points

MacKenzie Gore’s CH usage (21.4%) up 10.4 points

Trevor Rogers’s ST usage (21.5%) up 10.5 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Eury Perez Sinker: +25.3%

Parker Messick 4-Seam Fastball: +21.1%

Eury Perez 4-Seam Fastball: -21.0%

Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: +18.6%

Joey Cantillo Curveball: +18.1%

Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -17.1%

Robbie Ray Slider: -16.4%

Jared Jones Slider: +15.3%

Janson Junk 4-Seam Fastball: +14.9%

Jake Irvin Sinker: -14.5%

Aaron Nola Changeup: +14.4%

Connor Prielipp Sinker: +14.3%

Carson Palmquist Sinker: -13.9%

Andrew Painter Sweeper: +13.8%

Martin Perez Sinker: +13.8%

Michael Lorenzen Sinker: +13.7%

Bubba Chandler Slider: +13.5%

Grant Holmes 4-Seam Fastball: -13.5%

Carson Palmquist Sweeper: +13.4%

Emerson Hancock Sweeper: -13.0%

Brandon Pfaadt Changeup: +12.9%

Roki Sasaki Split-Finger: +12.8%

Noah Schultz Sweeper: -12.7%

Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%

Drew Rasmussen 4-Seam Fastball: +12.3%

Jack Perkins Cutter: +12.1%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Carson Whisenhunt - 42.0 RISP H%, 0.478 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 182.0 Luck Score

Paul Skenes - 56.0 RISP H%, 0.368 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 180.0 Luck Score

George Soriano - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.333 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 175.0 Luck Score

Luis Castillo - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.452 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 175.0 Luck Score

Jose Fermin - 40.0 RISP H%, 0.444 BABIP, 20.0 HR/FB, 169.0 Luck Score

Davis Martin - 41.0 RISP H%, 0.342 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 169.0 Luck Score

Miles Mikolas - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.419 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 168.0 Luck Score

Nathan Eovaldi - 36.0 RISP H%, 0.343 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 165.0 Luck Score

Jared Jones - 33.0 RISP H%, 0.341 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 161.0 Luck Score

Joey Cantillo - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.462 BABIP, 22.0 HR/FB, 160.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Yohan Ramirez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.158 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 17.0 Luck Score

Troy Melton - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.192 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 20.0 Luck Score

Sandy Alcantara - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.204 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 23.0 Luck Score

Ryan Weathers - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.212 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 24.0 Luck Score

Chad Patrick - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.235 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 30.0 Luck Score

Drew Rasmussen - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.24 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 31.0 Luck Score

Logan Webb - 7.0 RISP H%, 0.241 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 37.0 Luck Score

Brandon Pfaadt - 15.0 RISP H%, 0.206 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 41.0 Luck Score

Randy Vasquez - 14.0 RISP H%, 0.122 BABIP, 8.0 HR/FB, 42.0 Luck Score

Colin Rea - 9.0 RISP H%, 0.184 BABIP, 10.0 HR/FB, 43.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 35.6% CSW%

Roki Sasaki - 72 TBF, 35.2% CSW%

Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 34.4% CSW%

Jesus Luzardo - 110 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

Logan Henderson - 88 TBF, 32.6% CSW%

Tyler Phillips - 77 TBF, 32.6% CSW%

Sean Manaea - 101 TBF, 32.1% CSW%

Dylan Cease - 78 TBF, 31.9% CSW%

Walbert Urena - 82 TBF, 31.9% CSW%

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 31.8% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 45.5% K%

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 41.2% K%

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 41.1% K%

Dylan Cease - 78 TBF, 37.2% K%

Logan Henderson - 88 TBF, 35.2% K%

Max Fried - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%

Drew Rasmussen - 93 TBF, 34.4% K%

Reid Detmers - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%

Gerrit Cole - 99 TBF, 32.3% K%

Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 31.6% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 40.9% K-BB%

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 36.8% K-BB%

Cam Schlittler - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%

Logan Henderson - 88 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%

Drew Rasmussen - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%

Dylan Cease - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%

Gerrit Cole - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%

Max Fried - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%

Kyle Leahy - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%

Ian Seymour - 90 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Ryan Weathers - 71 TBF, 66.7% GB%

Framber Valdez - 89 TBF, 62.9% GB%

Brayan Bello - 68 TBF, 62.0% GB%

Cristopher Sanchez - 76 TBF, 61.9% GB%

Zebby Matthews - 68 TBF, 60.0% GB%

Andre Pallante - 72 TBF, 58.8% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 98 TBF, 58.0% GB%

Hunter Brown - 69 TBF, 57.8% GB%

Randy Dobnak - 91 TBF, 57.5% GB%

David Peterson - 94 TBF, 55.7% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Adrian Morejon - 46 TBF, 37.0 K%, 6.5 BB%, 45.8% GB%

Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 41.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 52.8% GB%

Griffin Jax - 67 TBF, 34.3 K%, 6.0 BB%, 52.5% GB%

Hunter Brown - 69 TBF, 29.0 K%, 5.8 BB%, 57.8% GB%

Jesus Luzardo - 110 TBF, 30.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.5% GB%

Joey Cantillo - 67 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, 46.5% GB%

Kyle Leahy - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.9 BB%, 47.9% GB%

MacKenzie Gore - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 45.0% GB%

Payton Tolle - 67 TBF, 41.8 K%, 3.0 BB%, 48.6% GB%

Will Warren - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 48.9% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Trevor Rogers - +3.3% CSW%, -5.8 BB%

Jacob Lopez - +2.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%

Gavin Williams - +4.6% CSW%, -5.2 BB%

Ryan Gusto - +2.5% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

Roki Sasaki - +6.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%

Kyle Leahy - +2.9% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Hunter Brown - +2.6% CSW%, -3.0 BB%

Payton Tolle - +4.8% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Jacob Misiorowski - +5.5% CSW%, -4.6 BB%

Tyler Phillips - +3.8% CSW%, -2.9 BB%

Trevor Richards - +2.2% CSW%, -1.5 BB%

Erick Fedde - +3.3% CSW%, -5.0 BB%

Tanner Gordon - +5.8% CSW%, -2.3 BB%

Kyle Hart - +3.2% CSW%, -3.0 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

Austin Martin (MIN) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Francisco Lindor (NYM) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Josh Bell (MIN) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Zack Gelof (OAK) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Yordan Alvarez, Yesterday: 118.5 Previous High: 115.4

Hardest Hit Balls

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 118.5mph - single

Cam Smith (HOU) - 113.9mph - home_run

Francisco Alvarez (NYM) - 111.0mph - single

Jac Caglianone (KC) - 110.8mph - home_run

Christian Franklin (BAL) - 110.7mph - None

Jarren Duran (BOS) - 110.3mph - field_out

Ryan Jeffers (MIN) - 110.1mph - None

Edmundo Sosa (PHI) - 110.1mph - single

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 110.1mph - double

Oswald Peraza (LAA) - 110.0mph - None

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Garrett Mitchell - 71 PA, 0.213 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, 0.113 Diff

Riley Greene - 72 PA, 0.244 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, 0.102 Diff

Gunnar Henderson - 76 PA, 0.256 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, 0.098 Diff

JJ Wetherholt - 85 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.38 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff

Brandon Marsh - 73 PA, 0.197 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff

Cal Raleigh - 62 PA, 0.26 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff

Colt Emerson - 59 PA, 0.215 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff

Pete Alonso - 76 PA, 0.367 wOBA, 0.444 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff

Jose Fermin - 63 PA, 0.27 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff

Mookie Betts - 69 PA, 0.208 wOBA, 0.281 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff

Bottom 10

Cam Smith - 56 PA, 0.443 wOBA, 0.302 xwOBA, -0.141 Diff

Cedric Mullins II - 56 PA, 0.345 wOBA, 0.213 xwOBA, -0.132 Diff

Chandler Simpson - 75 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, -0.118 Diff

Mickey Moniak - 63 PA, 0.378 wOBA, 0.269 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff

C.J. Abrams - 84 PA, 0.452 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff

Ceddanne Rafaela - 86 PA, 0.394 wOBA, 0.302 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff

Brandon Lowe - 77 PA, 0.377 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, -0.079 Diff

Jeremy Pena - 86 PA, 0.401 wOBA, 0.325 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff

Cooper Pratt - 58 PA, 0.331 wOBA, 0.256 xwOBA, -0.075 Diff

Kevin McGonigle - 83 PA, 0.37 wOBA, 0.295 xwOBA, -0.075 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Wilyer Abreu: 35.0 PA, +0.187 xwOBA OE

Jackson Chourio: 41.0 PA, +0.181 xwOBA OE

Pete Alonso: 35.0 PA, +0.145 xwOBA OE

Jake McCarthy: 42.0 PA, +0.134 xwOBA OE

Bryson Stott: 43.0 PA, +0.115 xwOBA OE

Julio Rodriguez: 33.0 PA, +0.111 xwOBA OE

Jac Caglianone: 36.0 PA, +0.102 xwOBA OE

Jackson Merrill: 41.0 PA, +0.1 xwOBA OE

Kyle Schwarber: 45.0 PA, +0.09 xwOBA OE

Gunnar Henderson: 35.0 PA, +0.084 xwOBA OE

Royce Lewis: 39.0 PA, +0.083 xwOBA OE

Bryce Harper: 47.0 PA, +0.081 xwOBA OE

Taylor Trammell: 29.0 PA, +0.081 xwOBA OE

Josh Bell: 36.0 PA, +0.073 xwOBA OE

Dillon Dingler: 40.0 PA, +0.072 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Zach Neto: 40.0 PA, -0.162 xwOBA OE

Christian Yelich: 31.0 PA, -0.141 xwOBA OE

Ian Happ: 32.0 PA, -0.14 xwOBA OE

Evan Carter: 29.0 PA, -0.136 xwOBA OE

Vaughn Grissom: 31.0 PA, -0.136 xwOBA OE

Tommy Edman: 36.0 PA, -0.135 xwOBA OE

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 31.0 PA, -0.133 xwOBA OE

Jacob Wilson: 30.0 PA, -0.123 xwOBA OE

Jake Cronenworth: 43.0 PA, -0.123 xwOBA OE

Kody Clemens: 34.0 PA, -0.121 xwOBA OE

George Springer: 34.0 PA, -0.117 xwOBA OE

Myles Straw: 35.0 PA, -0.116 xwOBA OE

Taylor Walls: 30.0 PA, -0.115 xwOBA OE

Kazuma Okamoto: 39.0 PA, -0.114 xwOBA OE

Nathan Lukes: 38.0 PA, -0.113 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Matt Olson - 87 PA, 50 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.0 Brl%

Munetaka Murakami - 80 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 52 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 59 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%

Spencer Jones - 50 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 76 PA, 56 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.4 Brl%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 90 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%

Cal Raleigh - 62 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%

Tyler Stephenson - 51 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%

Francisco Alvarez - 59 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Jackson Merrill - 79 PA, 0.446 xwOBA

Pete Alonso - 76 PA, 0.444 xwOBA

Jake Bauers - 59 PA, 0.424 xwOBA

Bryson Stott - 77 PA, 0.419 xwOBA

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 90 PA, 0.409 xwOBA

Taylor Trammell - 56 PA, 0.409 xwOBA

Bryce Harper - 85 PA, 0.404 xwOBA

Drew Gilbert - 51 PA, 0.399 xwOBA

Francisco Alvarez - 59 PA, 0.396 xwOBA

Tyler Stephenson - 51 PA, 0.391 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 78 PA, 159 Swings, 95.0 Cont%

Javier Sanoja - 59 PA, 108 Swings, 89.8 Cont%

Zach McKinstry - 61 PA, 98 Swings, 89.8 Cont%

Liam Hicks - 71 PA, 107 Swings, 89.7 Cont%

Masataka Yoshida - 62 PA, 87 Swings, 89.7 Cont%

Keibert Ruiz - 52 PA, 77 Swings, 89.6 Cont%

Jose Ramirez - 59 PA, 112 Swings, 89.3 Cont%

Chandler Simpson - 75 PA, 126 Swings, 88.9 Cont%

Isaac Paredes - 78 PA, 143 Swings, 88.8 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 76 PA, 124 Swings, 88.7 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Chandler Simpson - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Andres Gimenez - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Bryson Stott - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Garrett Mitchell - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Taylor Walls - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Lawrence Butler - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jose Fermin - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Caleb Durbin - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jose Caballero - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Cole Carrigg - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Mauricio Dubon - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jung Hoo Lee - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Luke Keaschall - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Jackson Holliday - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jeff McNeil - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Cedric Mullins - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Chandler Simpson - 11 Attempts (11 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 9 Attempts (7 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Xavier Edwards - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Otto Lopez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 7 Attempts (7 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 7 Attempts (7 steals)

Andres Gimenez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Caleb Durbin - 6 Attempts (4 steals)

Cedric Mullins - 6 Attempts (4 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 6 Attempts (3 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Jose Caballero - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Josh Naylor - 6 Attempts (5 steals)

A.J. Ewing - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Corbin Carroll - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Travis Bazzana - 6 Attempts (5 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Jackson Merrill - 79 PA, 16.5 K%, 20.6 Brl%

Jake Bauers - 59 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.6 Brl%

Junior Caminero - 81 PA, 18.5 K%, 14.0 Brl%

Luis Garcia Jr. - 67 PA, 14.9 K%, 20.4 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 76 PA, 19.7 K%, 21.4 Brl%

Taylor Trammell - 56 PA, 17.9 K%, 17.1 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Jackson Merrill - 107 PA, +0.095 xwOBA

Andruw Monasterio - 88 PA, +0.079 xwOBA

Bryson Stott - 100 PA, +0.075 xwOBA

Jose Fermin - 80 PA, +0.066 xwOBA

Royce Lewis - 98 PA, +0.065 xwOBA

Steven Kwan - 99 PA, +0.061 xwOBA

Wilyer Abreu - 106 PA, +0.061 xwOBA

Ty France - 109 PA, +0.057 xwOBA

Luis Rengifo - 88 PA, +0.053 xwOBA

Elly De La Cruz - 109 PA, +0.052 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

Eugenio Suarez - 82 PA, +12.4 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 107 PA, +8.4 Brl%

Luis Garcia Jr. - 84 PA, +8.1 Brl%

Matt Olson - 114 PA, +7.8 Brl%

Daylen Lile - 93 PA, +6.1 Brl%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 117 PA, +5.8 Brl%

Nolan Arenado - 98 PA, +5.1 Brl%

Dylan Crews - 98 PA, +4.8 Brl%

Christian Yelich - 97 PA, +4.8 Brl%

Wilyer Abreu - 106 PA, +4.4 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Jac Caglianone - 89 PA, +10.8 Cont%

Lawrence Butler - 89 PA, +8.4 Cont%

Cole Young - 101 PA, +8.3 Cont%

Nasim Nunez - 91 PA, +8.1 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 94 PA, +8.0 Cont%

Zach McKinstry - 81 PA, +7.6 Cont%

Daulton Varsho - 94 PA, +6.8 Cont%

Elly De La Cruz - 109 PA, +5.9 Cont%

Randy Arozarena - 104 PA, +5.4 Cont%

Masataka Yoshida - 80 PA, +5.2 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Nasim Nunez - 91 PA, -12.2 K%

Jac Caglianone - 89 PA, -12.1 K%

Zach McKinstry - 81 PA, -11.8 K%

Cole Young - 101 PA, -8.5 K%

Randy Arozarena - 104 PA, -7.9 K%

George Springer - 94 PA, -7.7 K%

Isaac Paredes - 106 PA, -7.2 K%

Nathan Church - 84 PA, -7.1 K%

Jose Fermin - 80 PA, -7.1 K%

Elly De La Cruz - 109 PA, -6.9 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Alec Burleson: +2.83

Daylen Lile: +2.53

Jacob Wilson: +2.5

Alec Bohm: +2.47

Jake Mangum: +2.3

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

Munetaka Murakami: -3.17

Vaughn Grissom: -2.42

JJ Wetherholt: -2.4

Steven Kwan: -2.35

David Hamilton: -2.35

####Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 0.395 xwOBA, 15.2% Brl%, 83.5% Contact%, 18.8% Chase%, 10.5% K%

JJ Wetherholt - 0.404 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 87.9% Contact%, 14.7% Chase%, 10.2% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Luis Robert - 37.1% Whiff%, 79.2% Weak%, 0.957 Cold Rating

Carlos Narvaez - 43.1% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.956 Cold Rating

Taylor Trammell - 37.5% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.932 Cold Rating

Colson Montgomery - 35.8% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.925 Cold Rating

Noelvi Marte - 35.4% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.914 Cold Rating

Jose Tena - 34.0% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.907 Cold Rating

Evan Carter - 33.3% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.906 Cold Rating

Jimmy Crooks III - 34.2% Whiff%, 76.2% Weak%, 0.904 Cold Rating

Hunter Goodman - 40.0% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating

Jake Burger - 34.8% Whiff%, 74.2% Weak%, 0.879 Cold Rating

Minor League Reports

AA-AAA OPS Leaders

Zac Veen (AAA - COL) 445 PA 1.037 OPS

Cooper Ingle (AAA - CLE) 333 PA 1.011 OPS

Danny Serretti (AAA - ARI) 330 PA 0.988 OPS

Franklin Arias (AAA - BOS) 391 PA 0.975 OPS

Josue De Paula (AA - LAD) 474 PA 0.972 OPS

Blake Burke (AA - MIL) 431 PA 0.97 OPS

Owen Ayers (AAA - CHC) 356 PA 0.967 OPS

James Tibbs III (AAA - LAD) 484 PA 0.96 OPS

Sean Keys (AAA - TOR) 354 PA 0.958 OPS

Christian Moore (AAA - LAA) 376 PA 0.951 OPS

Brett Squires (AAA - KC) 424 PA 0.946 OPS

Turner Hill (AAA - SF) 399 PA 0.94 OPS

Charlie Condon (AAA - COL) 443 PA 0.939 OPS

Alex Binelas (AA - PHI) 418 PA 0.939 OPS

Marco Luciano (AAA - NYY) 371 PA 0.938 OPS

Jack Pineda (AAA - KC) 301 PA 0.934 OPS

Ben Ross (AAA - MIN) 415 PA 0.932 OPS

Jack Suwinski (AAA - TB) 420 PA 0.931 OPS

Aaron Sabato (AAA - MIN) 349 PA 0.926 OPS

Yohandy Morales (AAA - WSH) 378 PA 0.922 OPS

AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders

Kade Anderson (AA - SEA) 87 IP 37.1% K-BB

Jace Beck (AAA - MIA) 79 IP 24.8% K-BB

Brett Sears (AA - ATL) 86 IP 24.3% K-BB

Gage Ziehl (AAA - BOS) 86 IP 23.2% K-BB

Adam Seminaris (AA - PHI) 105 IP 22.3% K-BB

Xavier Rivas (AA - NYY) 81 IP 22.0% K-BB

Carlos Pena (AA - DET) 85 IP 21.7% K-BB

John Holobetz (AAA - BOS) 88 IP 20.6% K-BB

Brandon White - 681449 (AAA - MIA) 85 IP 20.5% K-BB

Matt Wilkinson (AAA - SF) 81 IP 20.2% K-BB

Daniel Eagen (AA - STL) 93 IP 19.9% K-BB

Jose Cabrera - 703615 (AAA - ARI) 81 IP 19.8% K-BB

Brendan Beck (AAA - NYY) 115 IP 19.7% K-BB

Joe Whitman (AAA - SF) 89 IP 19.5% K-BB

Jackson Kent (AAA - WSH) 94 IP 19.4% K-BB

Jonathan Santucci (AAA - NYM) 100 IP 18.8% K-BB

Logan Allen - 671106 (AAA - CLE) 94 IP 18.6% K-BB

Cesar Perdomo (AAA - SF) 99 IP 18.5% K-BB

Tyson Hardin (AAA - MIL) 96 IP 18.1% K-BB

Jackson Nezuh (AAA - HOU) 84 IP 17.8% K-BB

Today’s SP Streamer Picks

Cody Bradford (15.0% Owned): Projected 5.59IP 2.48ER 6.52SO 1.56BB 18.01FPts

Martin Perez (31.0% Owned): Projected 5.23IP 2.49ER 4.43SO 2.14BB 12.48FPts

Bailey Ober (44.0% Owned): Projected 5.25IP 2.53ER 4.21SO 1.38BB 12.47FPts

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

Cam Smith - 29 PA, 1.369 OPS

Josh Bell - 36 PA, 1.132 OPS

Javier Sanoja - 28 PA, 1.022 OPS

Zach McKinstry - 32 PA, 1.0 OPS

Masataka Yoshida - 29 PA, 0.997 OPS

Keibert Ruiz - 27 PA, 0.997 OPS

Nolan Arenado - 37 PA, 0.976 OPS

Justin Crawford - 32 PA, 0.962 OPS

Matt McLain - 27 PA, 0.924 OPS

Henry Bolte - 38 PA, 0.924 OPS

Today’s Hitter Streamer Picks

Francisco Alvarez C (43.0% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.25HR 0.83RBI 1.1SO 0.49BB 0.01SB 9.35FPts

Victor Mesa Jr. CF (11.0% Owned): Projected 0.7R 0.26HR 0.71RBI 0.87SO 0.34BB 0.1SB 9.12FPts

Joc Pederson OF (20.0% Owned): Projected 0.81R 0.23HR 0.55RBI 1.0SO 0.53BB 0.03SB 8.84FPts

Dylan Crews OF (42.0% Owned): Projected 0.66R 0.22HR 0.5RBI 0.92SO 0.24BB 0.12SB 8.54FPts

Lars Nootbaar RF (9.0% Owned): Projected 0.66R 0.16HR 0.7RBI 0.58SO 0.4BB 0.04SB 8.34FPts

Josh Bell 1B (28.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.18HR 0.62RBI 0.83SO 0.4BB 0.02SB 8.05FPts

Jake Mangum CF (23.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.08HR 0.44RBI 0.89SO 0.24BB 0.2SB 8.04FPts

Bryce Eldridge P (49.0% Owned): Projected 0.58R 0.16HR 0.57RBI 1.31SO 0.79BB 0.03SB 8.03FPts

Lawrence Butler OF (37.0% Owned): Projected 0.56R 0.16HR 0.57RBI 0.85SO 0.3BB 0.12SB 8.02FPts

Cam Smith 3B (28.0% Owned): Projected 0.63R 0.14HR 0.65RBI 0.83SO 0.45BB 0.08SB 8.01FPts

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Alright, we have one of our prop categories getting to the number I wanted to today, and Gabriel Hughes has a 9.5 hit walk earn run line. The under price is plus money, and we have a 30% EV value on it today. We project him at 8.42. He’s been pretty solid so far, first right-handed batters. Frankly, he’s putting up a 32% K rate versus them. Overall, he’s got an 18% putaway rate, 10% swing-and-miss rate, and hasn’t had any egregious games where he’s given up three or four walks, just one or two a game, so we like this spot on the under today for the Rockies pitcher versus the Diamondbacks.

Gabriel Hughes COL U 9.5 H.BB.ER +101 1u DK

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Weather

It rained hard in northern Indiana last night, which often means trouble for east coast games the next day. But I guess that’s not the case now. Maybe I’ve just complete invented that concept.

The is no orange on the board at all, only a slight chance of rain in the Mets/Braves game. So we’re good to go here.

Game Info

Sacramento

The Rays went from Coors to Seattle to Sacramento, so we’re going to see them near the top of the implied leaderdboard some more this week. They get Jacob Lopez to start. Lopez has come back from the minors pitching much better. Just two homers given up in his last four and 17 strikeouts in the last two.

Let’s look at the pitch mix data over these last four outings:

He has a 14% HR/FB over the last four, which is a bit lower than you’d expect in Sacramento. But with all of the whiffs and strikeouts he’s gotten (32.5% K%), he hasn’t been giving up many balls in play, and only 32% of the balls in play have been in the air.

The kicker here is that we don’t really think Lopez is suddenly a 30% K% guy. And the Rays are really, really tough to strike out. They have a 19.6% K% over their last 850 PAs (I picked a somewhat random date of July 14th). Over that time, they have the third-highest GB% in the league at 46%. The Athletics have the highest at 49%, which is funny. If all they did was hit a bunch of fly balls they’d score a bunch of runs in their home games. But the injuries have taken so much of their thump off the field.

So neither of these teams is currently built to take max advantage of the park. It’s not a comfortable thought of fading the Rays vs. Lopez and the Athletics vs. Peralta in the most hitter-friendly environments on the slate, but when we’re talking about chalk - we have to look for decent reasons to fade it, and I think we have some here.

What if Lopez is kinda good now? And what if the Rays just pound the ball into the ground again?

For Athletics stacks, you’re left with asking like who do you really want to play? It certainly helps that Peralta is a righty. They have Butler and Soderstrom who are capable hitters, but the rest of the lineup is poor.

You’ve got a .343 xwOBA on Soderstrom, and then everybody else is below average. And nobody hits a ton of fly balls.

So I’m making the case to fade TB/ATH in large-field tourneys.

Diamondbacks vs. Gabriel Hughes

Hughes has allowed just a .243 xwOBA in his brief time in the Majors. That’s very good. He gave up five runs in his start last week at home against the Rays, but he struck out seven and only gave up four hits and one dinger. The pitch mix:

So the fastball is unimpressive, but at least it has a 47% GB% and a 54% Strike%. There’s something weird about it. You don’t see high GB% on four-seamers often like this. He throws that pitch a ton (55%), but does a really good job mixing everything up behind it.

The 10.2% SwStr% tells you that he’s going to get a ton of strikeouts, but the 45% GB% and .243 xwOBA shows you that hitters are having trouble doing damage against him.

And now he’s away from Coors, which should help him. The D’Backs are on top with a 5.94 implication, but it’s another spot I’m not thrilled about. The kicker is that the Rockies bullpen is pretty bad an the Diamondbacks are pretty good.

But I repeat myself from above, if we’re stacking the chalk stack hoping to finish in the 1st percentile, we’d better like pretty much everything about the spot. And I could see the D’Backs getting stifled for a handful of innings before they get into the bullpen.

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I should note, I plan to spend the next two weeks re-writing my Top 150 and may not have T-10 articles out in the meantime - but enjoy the org ranking updates on X.

NOTE: Rookie status is determined by 130 ABs, or 50 IPs at the Major League level.

NOTE: All stats from Sunday, Aug. 2nd - Saturday, August 8th 2026

T-10 Prospects

1. OF Zac Veen (Rockies) - AAA

ETA: Debuted

Comp: Young Charlie Blackmon with a worse hit tool

Prime Skills: This is the best version of Veen we’ve ever seen, and it comes with a story behind it, he showed up to camp this spring having added 40 pounds of muscle over the winter along with what’s been described as a genuinely renewed focus off the field (no more drugs), and the results at Triple-A Albuquerque have been loud. He’s up to a career-high 19 homers already, blowing past his previous single-season best of 15 set all the way back in his 2021 debut year. The bat speed and raw pull power are real, but whether the free-swinging version of this approach can survive big league velocity and shape is the entire question that’s kept him property of Triple-A for three years running. Veen could be up by the time this article comes out after the Rockies moved Doyle, there’s clear room for him to share time with Jordan Beck and Jake McCarthy. Veen is coming off a three homer night and a week where he had 10 extra base hits, 5 homers and 2 steals while hitting over .500. Veen is on this list twice in a row, but it’s well earned - he dominated this week.

Hitter Tool Grades:

• Hit: 45/50

• Plate Approach: 40/45

• Power: 50/60

• Speed: 60/60

Prospect Rank: Top 250

2. SP Eliazar Dishmey (Marlins) - AA

ETA: 2028

Comp: Taj Bradley / Brayan Bello mash

Prime Skills: Dishmey is a dude I have talked a lot about on the podcast, but haven’t written too much about him. I saw him live a number of times last year in Jupiter; Dishmey is a lean whippy armed righty throwing from a lower ¾ arm-slot with great ride on the fastball and an electric slider with quick-twitch mechanics and some arm-angle deception that help his arsenal play up. The fastball is fantastic up in the zone and he has a beast of a sweeper, though many will highlight his circle change as his best pitch - I think he is best attributed by the fastball, bullet slider and sweeper combo with the change up going east. In his final six starts in 2025, Dishmey had 42 strikeouts and 6 walks in 29 ⅔ innings and has carried his success into 2026 where outside of three rough starts, he’s been electric. The fastball is a ride/run pitch and the gyro slider is a quick downer, playing nicely against his change up (east), slider (south) and sweeper (west). This is Dishmey’s second time on the list this season after a stellar no-hit performance through 6 innings with 10 strikeouts and only giving up one walk.

Arsenal Grades:

• FA (93-98 mph): 60/65

• CH (82-86 mph): 55/65

• FC/SL (86-90 mph): 50/55

• ST (82-84 mph): 55/60

• CU (76-80 mph): 40/40

• Command: 45/55

Prospect Rank: Top 250

3. SS/3B Emil Morales (Dodgers) - A+

ETA: 2028

Comp: Fernando Tatis Jr. light

Prime Skills: Big, athletic shortstop with high end power potential and decent speed. He has the Fernando Tatis Jr. swing which has led to a similar batted ball profile (though beware of the high swinging strike rate as an average hit tool is likely the best case outcome with high 60s-low 70s contact rates). Morales has reportedly (per Baseball America) popped a 105.9 90th percentile EV this season (3 mph over last year) which is incredibly high at his age and when you combine his projected growth as a big 6’ 3” kid with the optimal angles he gets (29.2% line drive rate at A ball last year and 26% this year), there is a lot of power upside here (144 XBH+) even with the lackluster hit tool with 53 extra base hits in 94 games this year. Morales is going to be a stud if he can make more contact and this week had 6 extra base hits with 4 bombs, hitting .304.

Hitter Tool Grades:

• Hit: 35/45

• Plate Approach: 35/45

• Power: 55/65

• Speed: 50/50

Prospect Rank: 55

4. SP Brian Holiday (Cardinals) - A

ETA: 2028

Comp: Sonny Gray

Prime Skills: Holiday’s path here is worth remembering every time you look at the ERA, a third-round arm out of Oklahoma State who never got to throw a pro pitch before needing Tommy John surgery, then didn’t debut until this May after rehabbing through the complex league. His last start, a career-high 12 strikeouts and 0 walks (and only 2 hits) over 5.2 scoreless innings, was the best evidence yet that the surgery’s fully behind him, and the pitch data backs up why. The curveball is legitimately special with eight inches of drop, a 39.7% CSW that’s the best mark in his whole mix, and it’s getting grounders at a nearly 60% clip, this is a bat-neutralizing, weak-contact hammer he can lean on all day. He’s actually underusing his best swing-and-miss pitch, a low-80s slider that’s quietly generating an 18% swinging-strike rate, better than anything else he throws, but he’s only going to it about one in every nine pitches - he needs to throw it more often. The fastball, sitting 91 and thrown nearly half the time, is the piece that needs to catch up, hitters are seeing it well and it’s not missing bats or ground the way the rest of the mix does, so it’s playing more as a setup pitch right now than a weapon of its own; though it does have good ride and he has elite command of the pitch. He’s also got a cutter at about 87 mph and getting grounders on over three-quarters of the balls put in play against it, and a changeup that’s still just a show-me look in a small sample. Add it up and this is a contact-management arm first, over half of his balls in play stay on the ground.

Arsenal Grades:

• FA (90-93 mph): 40/45

• CU (75-78 mph): 60/60

• FC (86-89 mph): 50/55

• SL (80-83 mph): 45/55

• CH (81-84 mph): 35/40

• Command: 55/60

Prospect Rank: Top 750

5. SP Joseph Dzierwa (Orioles) - AA

ETA: Mid 2027

Comp: Noah Schultz light

Prime Skills: Dzierwa is a monster, a second-round pick out of Michigan State best known for his size and stellar command despite that size. He’s a college guy, and just like I predicted back in week one when he first made this T-10, he’s been a quick mover after a strong spring, and it’s carried straight into a Big Ten Pitcher of the Year college résumé (2.36 ERA, 104 strikeouts against 22 walks) translating cleanly to pro ball. A weakness is he’s only a three-pitch guy and profiles more as a back-end starter than a front-line arm in my opinion, a repertoire built around generating bad contact more than missing bats, leaning on a primary sinker rather than a four-seamer, backed by a genuinely plus changeup and fringy breaking stuff. This week Dzierwa went six scoreless with nine strikeouts and zero walks, allowing just four hits. He’s also shown some real toughness to go with the polish, he took a bad-hop throw to the face backing up a play in May that needed stitches above the eye and was back on the mound six days later like nothing happened. Between Frederick and Chesapeake he’s now a combined 90-plus innings into his first full pro look with an ERA comfortably in the low twos, exactly the kind of quick, clean transition you want to see from an advanced college arm with feel like this. He continues his rise up prospect rankings and is squarely on track for a 2027 debut.

Arsenal Grades:

• SI (93-96 mph): 60/65

• CH (81-85 mph): 50/60

• FC/SL (84-87 mph): 40/45

• Command: 55/60

Prospect Rank: Top 150

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