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LATE EDIT

Well I totally missed the fact that Case Keenum is starting for the Bears tonight, not Tyson Bagent. It doesn’t change a whole lot from the below. It’s probably worse for the Bears. Maybe Keenum’s a better game manager as a more experienced guy, but his physical ability at this point has to be less than Bagent.

I don’t think I’d change anything I wrote below really. Less interested in Keenum than Bagent as a play because of the mobility. But the rest still applies. Sorry for the big mistake there!

I started on Thursday with a new approach to the Showdown previews. They were LAME before, and now they’re LESS LAME. We’re going to dig into the non-obvious plays and talk more about how to build lineups with upside rather than just ramming the optimal into stuff hoping to maybe double the money.

The main reason I write these posts, though, is just because it’s fun. Football is a great game to break down. There’s much more you can get into with one game compared to baseball. So let’s do this thing.

Game Environment

If you click the little “show betting line movement” button on the game preview on the app, you’ll see that movement:

Not the prettiest plot, but you’ll be fine. We can get through this.

The big story with this game is that Caleb Williams is out, leaving Tyson Bagent to start at QB. Bagent himself was questionable after a concussion last week, but he’s good to go. We haven’t seen much of Bagent in the regular season, but he’s regarded as a competent backup. He played a good bit in 2023, which was a very long time ago now, but he did fine, and he had a game with 70 rushing yards. The gameplan will be made simple for him and I’d expect a lot of running with Swift and Monangai while they can plus a good bit of quick hitters to Burden and Loveland. But that’s speculation on my part, and I’m not the best guy to be speculating about NFL teams because I only pay attention for half of the year.

The over/under being at 41.5 is low, but that’s what you’ll get with the Eagles and a backup QB on the other side.

Both teams rank near the bottom of the league so far in PROE. Chicago is 26th, Philly is 27th. So we have a run-heavy game while things are neutral.

The Bears have played fast (8th in pace), the Eagles play slow (21st).

This stuff doesn’t matter that much when it’s a one-game slate, but it’s a really good spot for the Eagles offense. Pace-up spot against a bad defense. If the Bears can score with Bagent, it pushes Hurts. If they can’t, it pushes Barkley. One way or the other, the Eagles are getting a boost in this game.

So that’s the “chalky” way to go - playing 4-5 pieces from the Eagles. The “contarian” approach would be to play Bagent with multiple Bears pieces, betting that Bagent can have a decent game and get these Bears skill players to decent results.

Book Based Projections

First thing I wanted to look at was what the books think about Bagent. I’ve said “Bagent” way too many times already, but he’s the key player on this “slate”. I don’t like when people call it a showdown “slate”, because doesn’t “slate” imply multiple games?

The book projection: 29 attempts, 174 yards, 0.9 INT, 1.15 TD, 18 rush yards

Not a very confident projection. But who knows, it’s really hard to do anything with a guy we haven’t seen play real volume in three years.

Here are the implied fantasy point totals from the books:

Eagles

They’ve thrown it 60% of the time this year, -9.5% below expectation.

QB Play

They prefer to take it easy on the Hurts pass attempts. He’s thrown it 25 and 37 times in two games, that’s largely dictated by game script. The most likely outcome is that the Bears don’t end up leading by a ton of points and it’s another pretty low volume game from Hurts. But he’s run it 12 times for 62 yards without a touchdown. But those are coming if they get down to the goal line and use the tush push.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley has 23 opportunities in two games, Tank Bigsby has 16. Barkley played just ten snaps last week and left with a stinger, but he’s good to go for this one. In week one it was 37 snaps to Barkley and six for Bigsby. This isn’t a shared backfield. Playing Bigsby would be a bet on Barkley being limited or getting hurt again. It’s an awesome setup for Barkley. However, he ran just nine routes in week one, so that was not a ton of usage in the pass game. He’s seen four total targets. That could change, and I’m guessing it will come up, but he’s not a CMC type out there running 20+ routes and regularly seeing 5+ targets.

Pass Catchers

DeVonta Smith saw his slot route total come up last week. He ran 40 routes, 12 from the slot, and saw an elite 32.5% target per route last week in a big game. He’s the dude in this offense, and the matchup is soft.

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If you could, PLEASE DROP A LIKE HERE SO I KNOW PEOPLE ARE READING THIS.

I really have no idea how much interest my NFL writing garners, and it would be good to know I’m not writing this to nobody. This isn’t about dopamine for me seeing the likes; I really just want to know for sure that I’m not wasting my time on these with like four people caring.

DFS Review

I was right on the cash line, so this was almost exactly a push week for me. I cashed in the giant $2 double up, but not in the $3. That was kind of weird. I should have played head-to-heads instead, I guess. Here’s the lineup I went with:

The locks were Gibbs, Walker, Garrett Wilson, and Parker Washington.

The QB decision was made tougher by Jameis Winston coming off the board due to the weather and the lack of confidence the Giants showed in him during the week. There was talk about them seeking a trade for a QB, which speaks to the fact that they don’t think Winston can hack it. The two options I finished on were Tyler Shough and Kyler Murray. I ended up making the right choice, as Shough threw four touchdowns. He did turn the ball over three times in the fourth quarter as they were playing catch-up, so that ended up being a game-changing difference-maker. But that’s a very good score from the cash QB.

The other question I had was concerning three RBs or two TEs. This is how most of these lineups are going to play out. There were plenty of tight ends projecting well at the price, but I made the decision to not go into the Andrews/Kelce/Schultz plays, and certainly not two of them. Their floors you could argue were fine, but with their current physical abilities, the floor wasn’t there. You do have to build for ceiling in cash. Using two spots to hopefully get 20-25 points isn’t the right way to do that.

That put me on the gross Isaiah Williams play. He was the WR2 for the Jets with Adonai Mitchell out. We figured he wouldn’t do much, and he didn’t, but the price made it work and the route-running was going to be there. It was the only way to get to three RBs. Gibbs smashed, and anybody who didn’t play him is just doing the cash games wrong. Walker was highly owned and scored two touchdowns but didn’t hit the ceiling.

I almost went with Jaylen Warren over Hubbard, but decided to bet on the Panthers offense as a whole over the Steelers. That was wrong, but it’s a good general point if you’re trying to learn how to win money in cash games. The ideal is to jam in three running backs you think will play 75+ of the snaps and get pass-game work.

I do think I played it well, just didn’t get the slight break you need with the secondary plays to double it up again.

So I doubled my money in weeks one and two and pushed in week three. That’s a good start.

Injuries

De’Von Achane has a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season. The Dolphins had one good player, and now they have whatever one less than one is. That leaves Ollie Gordon as the starter. He is a much different back than Achane; he’s a bruiser. He took 17 carries for 41 yards yesterday (5.4 yards per carry). For the season, he has 20 carries for 48 yards (5.1 yards per carry) with just three targets.

Any running back that is thrust into the starting role is a viable option for fantasy leagues. But this is about as bad as that situation can be. The Dolphins have averaged 4.6 yards per play, the 10th-last in the league, and that’s probably going to get worse with Achane out of there.

Jaylen Wright will be a part of the game as well, but he’s another guy that doesn’t have Achane’s pass game chops. I think it’s just going to completely nuke the Dolphins offense. I wouldn’t want to start Gordon in a 12-team league next week at all, but maybe he’ll prove to be very good and find a way to average 4+ yards per carry on 15+ carries per week and add a handful of touchdowns in the mix.

Or maybe the Dolphins sign another RB to take some of the pass-down work. Either way, it’s not a situation to go dump all your FAAB on.

Breece Hall looks like he’ll miss some time after going out with a quad injury. That happened late in the game so we didn’t get an immediate look at the backup plan. But it’s clearly Braelon Allen, who is probably already stashed in most leagues. Allen has gone 19-61-1 on the ground this year and 4-11-0 on five targets through the air. A couple of years ago there were questions about which of these two is better; I think those debates have been settled. But Allen seems to be a competent backup on an offense that isn’t quite as bad as the Dolphins.

We’ll have to see how long they think Hall will miss, but Allen is the better add if available compared to the Dolphins situation.

Those were the only two that look like they’re definitely costing a starter significant time. Justin Jefferson left the game early but it seems like he’s fine for next week. Travis Etienne left with a hamstring, Bucky Irving left with an unspecified injury. There’s no reason right now to think any of those injuries are significant, but we’ll adjust to that during the week four NFL DFS write-up this week.

xFP - Running Backs

Week three xFP leaders:

1. Gibbs 29

2. Bijan 23

3. Love 23

4. Henry 21

5. Taylor 21

6. Kyren 21

7. Jeanty 19

8. Aaron Jones 19

9. Skattebo 18

10. Javonte 18

11. Hubbard 17

12. Warren 17

13. Cook 17

The Cardinals have been impressive. Jacoby Brissett is good enough to get the ball to his weapons. And that’s great news for Jeremiyah Love, who established himself as the RB1 this week. He took 21 carries for 90 yards on the ground and added 5-19-1 through the air. Tyler Allgeier had previously out-carried him, but he took a backseat yesterday with just two carries. There was no reported injury to Allgeier, so maybe they were just easing Love into things and feel good enough about his health here in week three to let him go. Love has averaged 3.9 yards per carry and has 12 targets and ten catches in three games. This was easily the #1 running back in last year’s draft, and they the #3 overall pick to get him, so it might be breakout time there.

Aaron Jones has taken 40 of the 46 RB carries since the Jordan Mason injury. He’s averaged 4.1 yards per carry and has six targets in two games. Two pretty ugly games, too. Week two was in a storm in Chicago, and yesterday was against a decent Bucs defense. Jones has just one rush TD, a lot of his scoring will depend on how good Kyler Murray proves to be, but he has a super valuable role for fantasy leagues while Mason is hurt.

Jaylen Warren gave the Steelers offense a charge yesterday with Rico Dowdle out. Warren went 17-127-0 on the ground and 3-49-0 through the air. He had an 80-yard run called back due to holding, and he tripped on his way to an easy touchdown run as well. This could have easily been a 200+ yard game for Warren with a touchdown. But he averaged 7.5 yards per rush and saw four targets, so he’s a must-start dude if Dowdle is out.

It was generally just good news for the Steelers. Rodgers went for a +0.24 EPA with 292 yards and three touchdowns to get the offense going. They beat the Bengals at home in an exciting game. DK Metcalf went 3-31-1 on five targets. It might have been a change in approach back to Rodgers getting the ball out quickly. But his ADoT was still high at 12 yards. The targets were spread out (Wilson 6, Pittman 5, Metcalf 5, Freiermuth 4, Warren 4, Washington 4).

Cam Skattebo saw 20 carries as the Giants went massively to the run (-22% PROE%). Just three yards per carry and 60 yards with 3-40-0 through the air. He’s a smaller dude who doesn’t seem like a guy who can average a big YPC in the NFL, but it was important to see him get more work in the pass game. They’ll need to do that with a pocket passer there in for Dart, whoever that might end up being.

Winston played bad by the numbers. Nobody wants to see it, he’s as entertaining as they come, but he went -0.24 EPA and 5.4 yards per attempt against the Titans.

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The regular season is over, and the playoffs are set. Here’s what we’ve got:

Here are your World Series odds via Kalshi:

1. Dodgers 30.5%

2. Brewers 16.7%

3. Rays 11%

4. Yankees 10.5%

5. Padres 6.6%

6. Guardians 6.3%

7. Braves 5.7%

8. Red Sox 4.1%

9. Phillies 4%

10. Cubs 3.8%

11. Astros 3.6%

12. White Sox 2.4%

A pretty top-heavy board. The Dodgers have nearly double the odds of the second-most-likely champion. The Dodgers and Brewers absorb almost half of the odds. Wouldn’t that immediately put some value on the American League? You could probably work up a formula to buy shares of every AL team with the plan to sell whichever team makes the World Series when they make it, and as long as the World Series ends up being within a 60/40 chance, you’d lock in a profit. That sounds like more of a headache than I’m willing to go into, but it struck me as a potential hedge opportunity for you hardcore baseball traders.

The Dodgers taking an early out would help that strategy as they would be the biggest favorite if reaching the World Series.

And isn’t that what we’re all rooting for this postseason? Unless you’re a fan of one of these teams, you’re probably just anti-Dodgers at this point. Few people want to see a third straight World Series going to the Dodgers with all of the players they’ve bought and some of the shady financial tactics they used to do it.

I can’t make myself hate the Dodgers too much, personally. Firstly, this is sports, and it’s meaningless. Secondly, it’s not the fault of the players, right? I don’t have particular ire for any individual Dodgers player. And we are supposed to judge people individually, yes? It’s not Freddie Freeman’s fault that he wanted to play in Los Angeles and the Dodgers offered him a massive contract. I guess I don’t really care for Blake Snell, but that’s mostly because of the bags under his eyes, which he might not be able to control.

I would like to see the Brewers get the job done. I have an October birthday, and my family has never been about buying gifts based on their own ideas. So every year they ask me what I want for my birthday, which is just silly. It’s not fun, and I’m at the point in my life where if I want something of marginal cost, I just buy it for myself.

But the last couple times I didn’t answer the question about what I want, I’ve gotten a multi-meter, a Battery Daddy, a frying pan, and a broom. I’m not even kidding about that. I will admit that the Battery Daddy was an awesome gift and I love having it, and I never would have bought it myself. So my parents aren’t batting .000, but they’re certainly below the Mendoza Line.

All of that is to say that I asked for a Brewers hat this year. It’s possible that I get the hat after they’re eliminated, but it’s a cool-looking hat and I’ll wear it anyways. The Brewers and Rays are the two most impressive organizations in the league in my book, so I’ll be happy to see one of them take it down. It gives you hope as a small-market fan that it’s possible to do. I think the Brewers are technically the smallest market in the whole league. Them taking down the World Series would be a beautiful thing in a lot of ways.

It would strengthen the argument of the owners in CBA negotiations, but I don’t really care about that. I’m not one of these fake freedom fighters who just hates rich people because they’re rich.

I find it really funny when people state so brazenly that the small market owners could spend way more money on payroll and cite their net worth as the reason. Take the example of Bob Nutting and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are valued around 1.4 billion dollars. Nutting is valued at 1.1 billion. People see that Nutting is worth $1.4 billion and somehow think that he could easily spend hundreds of millions on players. But most of his net worth is based on owning the $1.1 billion asset that is the Pirates. So the argument becomes that Nutting could spend more money on his team by … selling his team. Makes no sense.

Now hold on, before the anti-capitalists yell at me, I do realize it’s not quite that simple. I am sure that Nutting could spend more on the roster. They get a lot of money through the luxury tax that they don’t seem to earmark properly. It’s a complicated thing, and I’m not going to sit here and claim that people aren’t greedy. That’s one of our defining characteristics: selfishness and a lust for money and power. And the greed part applies even more to super rich people, their greed and relentless pursuit of maximal profit is a reason they got super rich in the first place.

So it’s not as simple as either side wants to make it. I’m in the middle somewhere. At the end of the day, I don’t care which side “wins” the lockout, I just want them to agree on a deal before March so we can get a normal season in next year. I’m financially and emotionally tied to that outcome, so that’s all I care about. And there you go, that’s me being greedy and selfish. I want the MORE PROFIT from MLB DW next year than I got this year, and I don’t want to be sitting around in April with no baseball numbers rolling in. I’m not even sure what I would do at that point. I’d have to get some other side gig next year if there’s no baseball, and what else can I do? I guess I could go into the dishwasher repair business - badd ummm ttchhtt!

So let’s talk about these playoff teams and get a feel for what might happen. This is a foolish venture anyways because baseball remains the sport the most prone to variance. It might not seem like it anymore with the Dodgers taking three of the last five crowns, but I think this 31% chance of them winning the World Series is over-stated.

Dodgers

I won’t deny they’re the best team in the playoffs by a good margin. The main reason for that is the pitching staff.

1. Tarik Skubal

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

3. Blake Snell

4. Tyler Glasnow

They won’t need more than those four, so they’ll have a stone ACE on the mound in every game. But Ohtani won’t be able to pitch for them (boooo hooooo), and their bullpen has been in much better shape than it is right now. Blake Treinen is done, Edwin Diaz has been turbo-buns since getting healthy. Tanner Scott is very good but has never been able to find a consistent groove to become a lock-down reliever. The command can disappear at a moment’s notice. Alex Vesia, Brock Stewart, Roki Sasaki.. I mean, there’s plenty left to be desired in that pen.

The offense has also been a lot better. Some OPS marks since August:

• Betts .903

• Edman .623

• Tucker .744

• Freeman .609

• Hernandez .820

• Muncy .824

• Ohtani .745

• Pages .880

• Smith .948

There’s not a bad hitter in the starting lineup, and it’s still one of the better lineups in the postseason, but it’s a lineup full of mostly past-their-prime bats.

I’m just saying that there’s a path. The Braves or Phillies could absolutely knock them out in a best-of-five. I might give the Phillies the better odds of doing being able to send Sanchez + Wheeler + Luzardo (hopefully) to the hill to win those three games.

If the Brewers get to the NLCS, they have Misiorowski to shove for a couple of games (and quite likely three games if it goes seven), and a very strong SP2 in Logan Henderson, plus a pesky offense that manufactures runs with the best of them. I don’t think you’d see many runs in that one, and it could be elite.

Brewers

It’s about starting pitching and small ball with the Brewers. Misiorowski finished with a 1.80 ERA, Henderson at 2.47, two of the best K-BB% pitchers in the league. What’s behind those two is Robert Gasser, Dustin May, and Shane Drohan. I suspect they use a ton of bullpen arms in games not started by Mis or Henderson. But they have some weapons there with Ashby, Megill, Uribe, and others.

They finished with 154 homers, the third-least in the league. That’s the achilles heel, but they led the league in batting average, they were second in OBP, and stole the fourth-most bases. That’s how they win. Get on base, move guys around, and manufacture runs. Their approach against the Dodgers would certainly be to work counts and get those starters out of the game early, playing for some late-game 3-2 victories. That stuff is boring in the regular season, but there are few things better in sports than a 1-1 tie in the 8th inning when it’s like 45 degrees outside.

Rays

They hit .258/.326/.401 this year. It was a middle-of-the-pack offense in run scoring (they ranked 12th). They also don’t have a great rotation.

1. Drew Rasmussen

2. Freddy Peralta

3. Ian Seymour

4. Griffin Jax

5. Nick Martinez

They’ll let Rasmussen get deep into the games, but I kind of doubt anybody else pitches more than 4+ innings at a time. They want to play the matchups and use that bullpen creatively.

Anything can happen, but I’m just not sure I see the firepower on either side of hte ball for Tampa to really make some waves.

They are helped by the fact that the American League just kinda sucks. The two best teams in the league are on the other side of the bracket, so it’s pretty wide-open on the AL side, and having that bye week and home field advantage is a helper for them.

The Rays posted a 17.3% K-BB% at home this year with a 3.29 JA SIERA. On the road, it was a 14.5% K-BB% and a 3.63 JA SIERA. They have one of the bigger home game edges in the postseason, so that’s a key point to make for their chances as the #1 seed.

Yankees

They have either the 2nd or 3rd best rotation in the postseason. They’ve done a good job getting everybody healthy, and they’ll send Schlittler, Fried, and Cole (if necessary) to the hill in their Wild Card series with Boston. Carlos Rodon has been elite for his last handful of outings, so he’s ready to play a big part of it as well.

The trouble is with the offense. They’re probably going to force Judge back into the lineup, but there’s no way he’s healthy. The Yankees had the fifth-worst team OPS (.688) in the second half. It’s just not a very good lineup.

Maybe Judge is healthy and will carry the offense. That seems unlikely, but it’s not impossible.

I’m surprised they’re the most-likely WS champ outside of the bye week teams. They have a better chance than Cleveland, who is already in the second round. Doesn’t seem quite right to me, I’m a Yankees doubter right now.

Padres

They were my sleeper pick last year, and they’re in that conversation again this year. The bullpen is just so good. Their non-starters went for a 3.53 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this year. The fourth-best K-BB% in the league. And if you look just at their main guys:

• Mason Miller: 1.67 ERA, 0.90 WHIP

• Adrian Morejon: 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

• Yuki Matsui: 1.83 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

• Jason Adam: 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

They are missing Jeremiah Estrada for this series and possibly the next if they make it. But those four are nails.

The rotation is bad, though. It’s Robbie Ray, Nick Pivetta, and Michael King. None of those guys are considered ace pitchers by any of us alleged ball-knowers. They can’t possibly send Casey Mize out there with what he’s been doing. So they will need some luck to survive the first 4-5 innings to make any waves.

Offensively, their lineup is relatively deep and carried right now by two studs. Fernando Tatis has a .978 OPS since August 1st, Jackson Merrill is at .892. Manny Machado hasn’t had the greatest finish to the season (.664 OPS over his last 51 games), but that’s a good bat to have.

France, Cronenworth, Bogaerts… nothing special there but they’ve all been helpful at times.

It’s a roster that pales in comparison the Dodgers, but that bullpen could carry them quite a ways.

Guardians

The worst team to achieve a bye. Gavin Williams and Parker Messick make for a nice 1-2 combo, but behind them it’s pretty rough (Bibee, Griffin?). They hit .238/.316/.380 this year, and they were one of the better matchups for pitchers. So I don’t see how they get very far even though they have the advantage of getting into the second round by default and having home field advantage there.

The Guardians have confused us for years. They don’t have a good roster, their team stats don’t look very good, but they are here in October every time anyways. It seems like a team built for the regular season, though.

Cubs

They went to work at the trade deadline to try to get a rotation that could help their offense. They brought in Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, and David Peterson. Gausman has a 4.83 ERA with the Cubs, Holmes is at 4.25. Peterson’s been good with a 3.02 ERA, but a 1.45 WHIP - so there’s luck there.

It’s really not a late-October rotation to bet on. However, they have one of the best offenses in the league. They got broken-faced Bregman back in a hurry, and they have the MVP and a solid lineup all the way down.

Things will have to get weird for them to make the run. They will need a low BABIP from their pitchers. They’re going to try to get the other team to hit a bunch of balls on the ground and let their elite infield defense to go to work. It could happen, but the rotation really doesn’t inspire much confidence. They’ll be going Imanaga - Gausman - Holmes - Boyd - Peterson as the starters. Not a single lockdown guy, and all of those names have been beaten up several times this year.

Their bullpen is also very spotty. Wdbb, Zeferjahn, and Palencia will be the leverage guys. It’s far from the worst bullpen back-end in the league, but it’s probably one of the worst in the playoffs.

Braves & Phillies

I think whichever team wins this awesome NLWC series has a good shot at it. The Braves have Chris Sale and a high-powered offense plus an elite bullpen. Their rotation behind Sale is questionable, but they check two of the three big boxes (starting pitcher, offense, bullpen). They’ll have no reason to not let Sale throw as many innings as he possibly can. We could see a Bumgarner-esque postseason from Sale.

The Phillies offense has regressed majorly, that’s the main reason they barely made it into the playoffs with a win yesterday.

Harper and Schwarber carried them, but they got very little help from anybody else. Brandon Marsh had the big first half, but he’s been one of the worst in the league since he showed his greasy hair at the All-Star Game.

Trea Turner might be cooked; it’s sad to say, but this was his worst season, and it hasn’t heated up lately.

The Phillies will need lockdown innings from Wheeler + Sanchez, and then they’ll need Luzardo to come back healthy. And they’ll need some well-timed homers from Schwarber and Harper. But I do think they have a chance. The pitching is very, very good.

Red Sox

We love some Payton Tolle here at MLB DW. And we could see the return of Garrett Crochet at some point, which would be exhilarating. Sonny Gray is probably their game one starter tomorow, and he’s had a nice season. They’ve had a great year from the bullpen as well, and they have a gamer on Ranger Suarez who has a bunch of postseason experience to lean on. So their pitching is good enough to win a few series.

It’s the offense that makes you doubt it. Roman Anthony has returned to have some success, and Willson Contreras has been one of the better hitters in the league. Add in Wilyer Abreu, and it’s not a horrible core of bats. But there are just a lot of really weak-hitting dudes that end up in these lineups.

But all things considered, with the AL being pretty weak, I like the Red Sox chances. They’re 75-55 since that bad first month, and getting Crochet back could be huge for them. Maybe it’s a stretch to think he can come back and be an ace right away, but it’s not a crazy idea either. The guy’s stuff is ridiculous.

I’m going to end up liking whatever team comes out of the ATL/PHI and BOS/NYY series.

The two teams that are basically drawing dead are the Astros and White Sox. They’re at the bottom of the list. The Astros limp into the playoffs with an 81-81 record. Their rotation is poor, and their offense is pretty much just Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez. There’s a reason they couldn’t win more games than they lost, and their run differential was -32.

The White Sox have a surprisingly good run differential at +56. But their rotation must be the worst in the playoffs. Sean Burke, Anthony Kay, Davis Martin… it’s a yikes machine. They’ll probably roll Erick Fedde out there for meaningful innings. That’s not going to work unless they get some sort of 10-homer postseason from Murakami or things just go crazy weird. I’d bet on us seeing a lot of Grant Taylor and Hagen Smith, the young duo of elite arms the White Sox have. Those are their two best pitchers, but they are both rookies playing the longest seasons they’ve ever played.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll root for the White Sox. That could be pretty fun. This is a team that lost 121 games just two years ago, so them making a run would be quite a story.

My Final Thoughts

In a vaccum, ignoring the bye weeks, here’s how I’d rank the postseason teams.

1. Dodgers

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Phillies

5. Braves

6. Rays

7. Padres

8. Red Sox

9. Yankees

10. Guardians

11. Astros

12. White Sox

If I were a betting man, which I am, I’d buy some odds on the Cubs, Phillies, Braves, Padres, and Red Sox. And I’d be looking to sell at a profit when it happens.

But basically, I’m rooting for as many 3+ game slates as possible so we can play more DFS, and I want zero blowouts. I want every game to come down to the final innings. I want at least three 12+ inning games. I want the playoffs to be so good and magical and whimsical that the lockout ends before it starts. I want world peace and no more hunger. JA 2028.

Enjoy it all while it lasts, loyal MLB DW subscribers.

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It all comes to an end today. Closing the book on another regular season, and another year of not missing the day on the daily notes. I feel good about what we did at MLB DW this year. Big thanks to Tim, Trevor, John Allen, Hunter, Doc, Owen, and Rob for helping out with content. We’ll do mostly the same thing next year, provided we’re set up for a mostly normal season.

And thanks to you all for supporting and using the tools. Having an audience is a big inspiration, and it enhances my life greatly.

I don’t have much time to write this morning, as it is Sunday. But we have four games that still have a say in which teams make the postseason today.

• Rays vs. Phillies

• D’Backs vs. Padres

Phillies need a win or a D’Backs loss to get in. So they need just one coin flip to hit, while the Snakes need two. That makes it 75/25 in favor of Philly.

The AL West is a dead heat:

• Astros vs. Athletics

• Rangers vs. Twins

The Rangers need to win and see the Astros lose. And they send MacKenzie Gore to the hill. Will he disappoint one more time? Will the Astros make it a moot point behind Peter Lambert taking on the A’s in the minor league park?

And all of these games start at 3:05 Eastern today, save NYM/WSH and BAL/NYY, who play at 1:05 for some reason. I love that final day of the season schedule where they all play at the same time.

Should be fun, and we get week three of the NFL season at the same time. Good day to just sit and stare at the rectangle all day. Enjoy it!

Pitcher Reports

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. Jack Perkins

2. Jonah Tong

3. Kade Anderson

4. Hayden Wesneski

5. Griffin Jax

6. Blake Snell

7. Quinn Mathews

8. Tanner Bibee

9. Dustin May

10. Justin Verlander

11. Bailey Ober

12. Michael Wacha

13. Nathan Eovaldi

14. Ryan Johnson

15. Jose Quintana

16. Walker Buehler

17. Rhett Lowder

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Jonah Tong (vs. WSH): 24.85 Points

2. Hayden Wesneski (vs. ATH): 23.55 Points

3. Tanner Bibee (vs. KC): 18.7 Points

4. Rhett Lowder (vs. TOR): 18.5 Points

5. John Klein (vs. CIN): 16.6 Points

6. Kyle Harrison (vs. STL): 16.5 Points

7. Justin Verlander (vs. PIT): 16.39 Points

8. Ryan Feltner (vs. CWS): 15.26 Points

9. Quinn Mathews (vs. MIL): 15.05 Points

10. Michael Wacha (vs. CLE): 14.04 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Jack Perkins (OAK): 22 Whiffs (94 Pitches)

2. Jonah Tong (NYM): 19 Whiffs (87 Pitches)

3. Hayden Wesneski (HOU): 14 Whiffs (82 Pitches)

4. Jake Irvin (WSH): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)

5. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)

6. Bailey Ober (MIN): 12 Whiffs (86 Pitches)

7. Quinn Mathews (STL): 11 Whiffs (81 Pitches)

8. Blake Snell (LAD): 10 Whiffs (77 Pitches)

9. Justin Verlander (DET): 10 Whiffs (91 Pitches)

10. Kade Anderson (SEA): 10 Whiffs (59 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Dustin May (MIL): 53.4 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%

2. Jack Perkins (OAK): 52.1 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%

3. Quinn Mathews (STL): 51.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%

4. John Klein (TOR): 51.5 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%

5. Jake Irvin (WSH): 51.5 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%

6. Kade Anderson (SEA): 50.8 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%

7. Jonah Tong (NYM): 49.4 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%

8. Ryan Feltner (COL): 48.4 Strike%, 32.8 Ball%

9. Justin Verlander (DET): 48.4 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%

10. Blake Snell (LAD): 48.1 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%

11. Bradley Blalock (MIA): 48.1 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%

12. Jose Urquidy (PHI): 48.0 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%

13. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 46.8 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%

14. Griffin Jax (TB): 46.2 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%

15. Michael Wacha (KC): 45.6 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Hayden Wesneski: 82 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.9 POUT

2. Rhett Lowder: 79 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.39 POUT

3. Michael Wacha: 90 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.74 POUT

4. Tanner Bibee: 94 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.22 POUT

5. Quinn Mathews: 81 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.4 POUT

6. Bradley Blalock: 54 Pitches, 10 Outs, 5.4 POUT

7. Nathan Eovaldi: 71 Pitches, 13 Outs, 5.46 POUT

8. Bailey Ober: 86 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.73 POUT

9. Griffin Jax: 52 Pitches, 9 Outs, 5.78 POUT

10. Jonah Tong: 87 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.8 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Dustin May’s SI velo (11 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 97.4

Bradley Blalock’s FF velo (17 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 96.4

Nathan Eovaldi’s FC velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 88.7

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Blake Snell’s FF usage (57.1%) up 11.0 points

Bradley Blalock’s SI usage (13.0%) up 11.6 points

Dustin May’s FF usage (36.2%) up 15.2 points

Dustin May’s CU usage (15.5%) up 11.5 points

Griffin Jax’s SI usage (34.6%) up 15.6 points

Hayden Wesneski’s SI usage (26.8%) up 10.4 points

Jake Irvin’s ST usage (17.8%) up 14.2 points

Jose Quintana’s SV usage (30.5%) up 20.6 points

Rhett Lowder’s SI usage (46.8%) up 16.6 points

Ryan Johnson’s FC usage (51.2%) up 11.6 points

Ryan Johnson’s ST usage (36.0%) up 11.7 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Robbie Ray Sinker: +25.3%

Bryan Hudson Sweeper: +21.7%

Bryan Hudson 4-Seam Fastball: -19.3%

David Sandlin Sweeper: +18.5%

Robbie Ray 4-Seam Fastball: -17.5%

Brayan Bello 4-Seam Fastball: +17.5%

Andrew Painter Changeup: +16.8%

Walbert Urena 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%

Trey Gibson 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%

Jacob deGrom Slider: -15.2%

David Peterson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.6%

Anthony Kay Sweeper: +14.6%

Jackson Jobe 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%

Ryan Johnson Sinker: -14.1%

Rhett Lowder Sinker: +14.0%

Ryan Johnson Sweeper: +14.0%

Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%

Joe Ryan Sweeper: +13.8%

Kumar Rocker 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%

Kyle Freeland Sinker: +13.6%

Bryan Woo Slider: -13.2%

David Sandlin 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%

Brayan Bello Cutter: -12.7%

Grayson Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%

Dustin May Sinker: +12.5%

Trey Gibson Sinker: -12.5%

Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%

Anthony Kay 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%

Jeffrey Springs Slider: -12.3%

Andre Pallante 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%

Richard Lovelady Sinker: +12.1%

Shota Imanaga Split-Finger: +12.1%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Gabriel Hughes - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.4 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 186.0 Luck Score

Sean Newcomb - 38.0 RISP H%, 0.4 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 179.0 Luck Score

Andrew Sears - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.417 BABIP, 22.0 HR/FB, 179.0 Luck Score

Dustin May - 40.0 RISP H%, 0.389 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 178.0 Luck Score

Brady Singer - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.442 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 171.0 Luck Score

Jacob Lopez - 39.0 RISP H%, 0.333 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 168.0 Luck Score

Tanner Gordon - 34.0 RISP H%, 0.596 BABIP, 17.0 HR/FB, 163.0 Luck Score

Seth Lugo - 20.0 RISP H%, 0.407 BABIP, 40.0 HR/FB, 159.0 Luck Score

Jeffrey Springs - 30.0 RISP H%, 0.364 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 156.0 Luck Score

Taylor Clarke - 46.0 RISP H%, 0.5 BABIP, 10.0 HR/FB, 154.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Dean Kremer - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.091 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 16.0 Luck Score

Emmet Sheehan - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.13 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 17.0 Luck Score

Joey Cantillo - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.129 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 17.0 Luck Score

Drew Rasmussen - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.2 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 23.0 Luck Score

Matt Wilkinson - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.148 BABIP, 7.0 HR/FB, 29.0 Luck Score

Griffin Jax - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.226 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 31.0 Luck Score

Robert Gasser - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.143 BABIP, 11.0 HR/FB, 36.0 Luck Score

Ryan Feltner - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.242 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 36.0 Luck Score

Freddy Peralta - 12.0 RISP H%, 0.195 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 36.0 Luck Score

Cody Bradford - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.207 BABIP, 9.0 HR/FB, 37.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Tyler Glasnow - 69 TBF, 37.5% CSW%

Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 34.8% CSW%

Gavin Williams - 89 TBF, 34.1% CSW%

Carlos Rodon - 73 TBF, 33.7% CSW%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 33.5% CSW%

Jackson Jobe - 89 TBF, 33.4% CSW%

Jared Jones - 69 TBF, 33.3% CSW%

Patrick Sandoval - 72 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 74 TBF, 32.7% CSW%

Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 32.5% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Tyler Glasnow - 69 TBF, 40.6% K%

Jared Jones - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%

Jackson Jobe - 89 TBF, 36.0% K%

Hunter Brown - 86 TBF, 36.0% K%

Gavin Williams - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%

Cam Schlittler - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%

Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 32.9% K%

Reid Detmers - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%

Jacob deGrom - 86 TBF, 31.4% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jared Jones - 69 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%

Jackson Jobe - 89 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%

Tyler Glasnow - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%

Reid Detmers - 89 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%

Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%

Brayan Bello - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%

Sean Manaea - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%

Shota Imanaga - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%

Cam Schlittler - 84 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Andre Pallante - 70 TBF, 69.6% GB%

Framber Valdez - 70 TBF, 66.7% GB%

Hunter Brown - 86 TBF, 65.2% GB%

Clay Holmes - 93 TBF, 64.5% GB%

Walbert Urena - 99 TBF, 64.4% GB%

Jose Soriano - 91 TBF, 63.2% GB%

Max Fried - 66 TBF, 60.0% GB%

Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 57.8% GB%

Tyler Phillips - 67 TBF, 57.4% GB%

Cristopher Sanchez - 105 TBF, 54.5% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Brayan Bello - 71 TBF, 31.0 K%, 4.2 BB%, 53.3% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 43 TBF, 34.9 K%, 4.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%

Chris Sale - 47 TBF, 34.0 K%, 4.3 BB%, 48.1% GB%

Dax Fulton - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, 48.1% GB%

Jack Perkins - 89 TBF, 27.0 K%, 4.5 BB%, 44.3% GB%

Jacob Misiorowski - 54 TBF, 37.0 K%, 5.6 BB%, 48.4% GB%

Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 57.8% GB%

Kyle Leahy - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.9 BB%, 44.1% GB%

Logan Gilbert - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 53.2% GB%

Logan Webb - 47 TBF, 31.9 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.7% GB%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.1 BB%, 45.5% GB%

Shota Imanaga - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 48.8% GB%

Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 27.3 K%, 5.1 BB%, 49.3% GB%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 5.4 BB%, 54.2% GB%

Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Trevor Rogers - +3.9% CSW%, -5.2 BB%

Carlos Rodon - +4.0% CSW%, -3.5 BB%

Patrick Sandoval - +4.2% CSW%, -1.6 BB%

Andre Pallante - +2.6% CSW%, -2.8 BB%

Jared Jones - +2.3% CSW%, -3.3 BB%

Jackson Jobe - +8.6% CSW%, -4.4 BB%

Kevin Gausman - +3.8% CSW%, -2.1 BB%

Seth Lugo - +3.4% CSW%, -2.6 BB%

Sean Manaea - +2.7% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Peter Lambert - +2.3% CSW%, -4.3 BB%

Emmet Sheehan - +2.2% CSW%, -2.1 BB%

Gabriel Hughes - +2.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

Carter Jensen (KC) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 3 Barrels, 0 HR

James McCann (ARI) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Jeremy Pena (HOU) 6 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Patrick Bailey (CLE) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Ronny Mauricio (NYM) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Hardest Hit Balls

Henry Bolte (OAK) - 113.7mph - None

James Wood (WSH) - 113.0mph - single

Junior Caminero (TB) - 111.9mph - home_run

Billy Cook (PIT) - 111.7mph - None

Alec Burleson (STL) - 111.6mph - home_run

Salvador Perez (KC) - 109.9mph - double

Sean Keys (TOR) - 109.7mph - None

Deyvison De Los Santos (MIA) - 109.3mph - force_out

Patrick Bailey (CLE) - 109.2mph - None

Jeremy Pena (HOU) - 109.0mph - home_run

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Dillon Dingler - 56 PA, 0.238 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, 0.104 Diff

Wilyer Abreu - 65 PA, 0.255 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff

J.T. Realmuto - 60 PA, 0.184 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff

John Peck - 60 PA, 0.211 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff

Thomas Saggese - 68 PA, 0.217 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, 0.086 Diff

Freddie Freeman - 66 PA, 0.196 wOBA, 0.278 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff

Turner Hill - 57 PA, 0.207 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff

Bo Bichette - 90 PA, 0.3 wOBA, 0.376 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff

Josh Bell - 72 PA, 0.267 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff

Royce Lewis - 67 PA, 0.156 wOBA, 0.221 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff

Bottom 10

Angel Martinez - 56 PA, 0.448 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, -0.163 Diff

Nolan Arenado - 77 PA, 0.564 wOBA, 0.415 xwOBA, -0.149 Diff

Spencer Torkelson - 66 PA, 0.479 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, -0.133 Diff

Randy Arozarena - 80 PA, 0.46 wOBA, 0.337 xwOBA, -0.123 Diff

Travis Bazzana - 68 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff

Javier Sanoja - 75 PA, 0.433 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff

Gabriel Moreno - 80 PA, 0.445 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff

Brice Turang - 77 PA, 0.516 wOBA, 0.417 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff

Isaac Paredes - 77 PA, 0.438 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 64 PA, 0.393 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Pete Alonso: 34.0 PA, +0.193 xwOBA OE

Munetaka Murakami: 41.0 PA, +0.158 xwOBA OE

Zack Gelof: 38.0 PA, +0.147 xwOBA OE

Dillon Dingler: 28.0 PA, +0.138 xwOBA OE

Brandon Lowe: 39.0 PA, +0.131 xwOBA OE

Will Smith: 27.0 PA, +0.123 xwOBA OE

Dominic Canzone: 36.0 PA, +0.122 xwOBA OE

Eduardo Valencia: 29.0 PA, +0.118 xwOBA OE

Drake Baldwin: 38.0 PA, +0.104 xwOBA OE

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 40.0 PA, +0.104 xwOBA OE

Coby Mayo: 34.0 PA, +0.102 xwOBA OE

Yordan Alvarez: 39.0 PA, +0.102 xwOBA OE

Xander Bogaerts: 30.0 PA, +0.1 xwOBA OE

Mike Trout: 41.0 PA, +0.096 xwOBA OE

Bo Bichette: 42.0 PA, +0.095 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Christian Koss: 27.0 PA, -0.239 xwOBA OE

Ozzie Albies: 32.0 PA, -0.222 xwOBA OE

Colson Montgomery: 30.0 PA, -0.167 xwOBA OE

Matt McLain: 28.0 PA, -0.165 xwOBA OE

Jonah Cox: 33.0 PA, -0.145 xwOBA OE

Ernie Clement: 27.0 PA, -0.144 xwOBA OE

Jonny DeLuca: 37.0 PA, -0.137 xwOBA OE

Brett Harris: 28.0 PA, -0.134 xwOBA OE

Jeremiah Jackson: 30.0 PA, -0.133 xwOBA OE

Jake Bauers: 29.0 PA, -0.127 xwOBA OE

Royce Lewis: 34.0 PA, -0.125 xwOBA OE

Moises Ballesteros: 31.0 PA, -0.12 xwOBA OE

Jeff McNeil: 32.0 PA, -0.118 xwOBA OE

Jake McCarthy: 37.0 PA, -0.108 xwOBA OE

Thomas Saggese: 27.0 PA, -0.106 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Elly De La Cruz - 81 PA, 46 BIP, 14 Brls, 30.4 Brl%

Munetaka Murakami - 80 PA, 32 BIP, 9 Brls, 28.1 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 80 PA, 47 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.5 Brl%

Carter Jensen - 70 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%

Wyatt Langford - 75 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%

Emmanuel Rodriguez - 48 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 64 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%

Jake Burger - 76 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%

Mike Trout - 84 PA, 42 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.0 Brl%

Jake Bauers - 61 PA, 27 BIP, 5 Brls, 18.5 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Pete Alonso - 80 PA, 0.476 xwOBA

Brett Baty - 48 PA, 0.464 xwOBA

Elly De La Cruz - 81 PA, 0.459 xwOBA

Will Smith - 60 PA, 0.433 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 79 PA, 0.429 xwOBA

Carter Jensen - 70 PA, 0.423 xwOBA

Coby Mayo - 78 PA, 0.421 xwOBA

Brice Turang - 77 PA, 0.417 xwOBA

Nolan Arenado - 77 PA, 0.415 xwOBA

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 86 PA, 0.411 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 71 PA, 111 Swings, 98.2 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 82 PA, 115 Swings, 92.2 Cont%

Nathan Lukes - 63 PA, 119 Swings, 91.6 Cont%

Nico Hoerner - 75 PA, 136 Swings, 91.2 Cont%

Ernie Clement - 61 PA, 90 Swings, 91.1 Cont%

Sam Antonacci - 64 PA, 104 Swings, 90.4 Cont%

Geraldo Perdomo - 80 PA, 117 Swings, 89.7 Cont%

Mookie Betts - 79 PA, 124 Swings, 89.5 Cont%

Brett Bateman - 65 PA, 131 Swings, 89.3 Cont%

Jung Hoo Lee - 49 PA, 88 Swings, 88.6 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jackson Chourio - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Cooper Pratt - 6 Attempts (5 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Dylan Crews - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Jose Ramirez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Zach Neto - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Richie Palacios - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Wyatt Langford - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jonah Cox - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Randy Arozarena - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Matt McLain - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Lawrence Butler - 3 Attempts (0 steals)

David Hamilton - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jeremy Pena - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Oneil Cruz - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Cole Carrigg - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Cedric Mullins - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Samad Taylor - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Konnor Griffin - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Otto Lopez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Josh Naylor - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Miguel Vargas - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jonah Cox - 14 Attempts (11 steals)

Oneil Cruz - 11 Attempts (8 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 11 Attempts (11 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 10 Attempts (9 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 10 Attempts (9 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 9 Attempts (9 steals)

Miguel Vargas - 9 Attempts (9 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Samad Taylor - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Richie Palacios - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Zack Gelof - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Jorge Mateo - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 8 Attempts (8 steals)

Cooper Pratt - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Brett Baty - 48 PA, 14.6 K%, 17.6 Brl%

Josh Jung - 48 PA, 18.8 K%, 14.3 Brl%

Kazuma Okamoto - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 14.3 Brl%

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 77 PA, 15.6 K%, 15.3 Brl%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 68 PA, 16.2 K%, 16.0 Brl%

Yordan Alvarez - 67 PA, 16.4 K%, 14.6 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Carter Jensen - 111 PA, +0.138 xwOBA

Elly De La Cruz - 115 PA, +0.108 xwOBA

Zack Gelof - 115 PA, +0.106 xwOBA

Coby Mayo - 109 PA, +0.105 xwOBA

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 127 PA, +0.092 xwOBA

Eugenio Suarez - 88 PA, +0.09 xwOBA

Kazuma Okamoto - 106 PA, +0.089 xwOBA

Teoscar Hernandez - 113 PA, +0.076 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 113 PA, +0.074 xwOBA

Javier Sanoja - 112 PA, +0.067 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

Elly De La Cruz - 115 PA, +17.6 Brl%

Carter Jensen - 111 PA, +12.3 Brl%

Zack Gelof - 115 PA, +8.8 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 88 PA, +8.4 Brl%

Daylen Lile - 98 PA, +8.1 Brl%

Teoscar Hernandez - 113 PA, +6.9 Brl%

Alex Bregman - 98 PA, +5.9 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 113 PA, +5.9 Brl%

Tim Tawa - 99 PA, +5.3 Brl%

William Contreras - 106 PA, +5.1 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Brady House - 82 PA, +9.5 Cont%

Konnor Griffin - 88 PA, +9.4 Cont%

Kyle Tucker - 107 PA, +8.7 Cont%

Ketel Marte - 99 PA, +8.3 Cont%

Connor Norby - 97 PA, +8.0 Cont%

Jonah Heim - 80 PA, +7.8 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 115 PA, +7.8 Cont%

T.J. Rumfield - 110 PA, +7.6 Cont%

Coby Mayo - 109 PA, +7.4 Cont%

James Wood - 83 PA, +7.2 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Marcus Semien - 102 PA, -12.5 K%

Brady House - 82 PA, -10.1 K%

Kazuma Okamoto - 106 PA, -9.4 K%

Hunter Goodman - 100 PA, -9.3 K%

Wade Meckler - 106 PA, -9.1 K%

Nathan Church - 99 PA, -9.0 K%

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 112 PA, -8.4 K%

Zack Gelof - 115 PA, -8.3 K%

Coby Mayo - 109 PA, -8.0 K%

Kyle Schwarber - 123 PA, -7.4 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Geraldo Perdomo: +4.35

Jeremy Pena: +2.7

Francisco Lindor: +2.4

Eugenio Suarez: +1.8

Elly De La Cruz: +1.8

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

Jazz Chisholm: -4.6

Hao Yu Lee: -3.22

Nathan Church: -3.2

Jac Caglianone: -3.17

Hunter Goodman: -3.0

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Carson Benge - 0.403 xwOBA, 10.9% Brl%, 81.4% Contact%, 23.3% Chase%, 17.5% K%

Juan Soto - 0.388 xwOBA, 13.3% Brl%, 80.9% Contact%, 23.9% Chase%, 16.7% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Ryan Jeffers - 35.0% Whiff%, 81.0% Weak%, 0.945 Cold Rating

Colson Montgomery - 35.0% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.939 Cold Rating

Christian Koss - 36.7% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.935 Cold Rating

Victor Caratini - 33.3% Whiff%, 83.3% Weak%, 0.929 Cold Rating

Jake Burger - 31.4% Whiff%, 77.4% Weak%, 0.886 Cold Rating

Wyatt Langford - 34.5% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.88 Cold Rating

Donovan Walton - 33.3% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating

Carlos Jorge - 32.8% Whiff%, 72.2% Weak%, 0.869 Cold Rating

Lazaro Montes - 41.3% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.867 Cold Rating

Isaac Collins - 31.2% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating

Today’s SP Streamer Picks

Yusei Kikuchi (19.0% Owned): Projected 6.12IP 2.73ER 6.22SO 2.69BB 16.76FPts

Sean Manaea (35.0% Owned): Projected 5.77IP 2.69ER 4.89SO 1.4BB 14.26FPts

Dean Kremer (25.0% Owned): Projected 5.54IP 2.59ER 4.96SO 2.12BB 13.91FPts

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

Angel Martinez - 27 PA, 1.254 OPS

Eduardo Valencia - 29 PA, 1.237 OPS

Josh Jung - 30 PA, 1.131 OPS

Brayan Rocchio - 27 PA, 1.127 OPS

Walker Jenkins - 36 PA, 1.018 OPS

Dominic Canzone - 36 PA, 1.011 OPS

Jake Cronenworth - 35 PA, 1.008 OPS

George Lombard Jr. - 32 PA, 0.969 OPS

Samad Taylor - 29 PA, 0.956 OPS

Victor Mesa Jr. - 28 PA, 0.913 OPS

Today’s Hitter Streamer Picks

Garrett Mitchell CF (32.0% Owned): Projected 0.79R 0.11HR 0.58RBI 1.22SO 0.61BB 0.15SB 9.26FPts

Austin Martin SS (2.0% Owned): Projected 0.76R 0.1HR 0.67RBI 0.82SO 0.53BB 0.16SB 9.18FPts

Henry Bolte OF (49.0% Owned): Projected 0.71R 0.15HR 0.53RBI 1.36SO 0.39BB 0.21SB 8.7FPts

Josh Bell 1B (43.0% Owned): Projected 0.66R 0.18HR 0.68RBI 0.9SO 0.42BB 0.02SB 8.49FPts

Heriberto Hernandez LF (34.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.2HR 0.65RBI 1.19SO 0.5BB 0.11SB 8.46FPts

J.P. Crawford SS (2.0% Owned): Projected 0.72R 0.12HR 0.53RBI 1.03SO 0.68BB 0.05SB 8.36FPts

Carlos Jorge SS (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.64R 0.13HR 0.46RBI 0.98SO 0.32BB 0.23SB 8.33FPts

Dylan Beavers OF (12.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.13HR 0.47RBI 1.09SO 0.7BB 0.14SB 8.33FPts

Dylan Crews OF (35.0% Owned): Projected 0.61R 0.17HR 0.68RBI 1.02SO 0.29BB 0.11SB 8.29FPts

Griffin Conine RF (20.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.19HR 0.66RBI 1.24SO 0.53BB 0.05SB 8.09FPts

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Bittersweet day for me, as I love baseball. Last daily slate of the season for regular-season ball. There will be stuff for the playoffs. I love the playoffs because guys are amped up.

Speaking of amped up, Justin Verlander makes his last start today, and we’re laddering it. He’s going to come out, and he is going to literally throw his arm off. He wants to go out. The man has made me a lot of money in DFS betting over the years. Been a great career to watch. Always was a Verlander fan, and so there’s just no way I can’t not bet it today. There is no data other than it’s his last game, and he’s going to go as long as his arm is intact, into his shoulder, and his UCL isn’t torn in half.

Justin Verlander DET O 5.5k +141 1u and O 6.5k +280 .5u and O 8.5k +1200 .25u

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Last write-up of the regular season. It has been a pleasure writing for you all this year. I hope you all enjoyed the season and got better at DFS. I actually really like the playoffs, so you’ll probably just see some content from me during it. I’m a big showdown fan. I’ve done really well at them over the years, binking multiple times, so I’ll talk about that, especially up front, as we have a couple of four-game slates. Thanks again, it has been a pleasure, and let’s go win some money on the last day of the regular season that is worth playing. Tomorrow will be weird.

The Run Environment

Houston at the A’s leads the sim at 10.77 runs, and the over 9.5 hits 58.2% of the time, best on the board. Next come Colorado at the White Sox (10.36), the Angels at Seattle (10.02), St. Louis at Milwaukee (9.82), Cleveland at KC (9.36), Arizona at San Diego (8.94) and Tampa at Philly (8.75). By team total, Seattle is way out front at 6.92, then Houston at 5.44, the White Sox and A’s at 5.33, and Cleveland at 5.07.

The field will pile into Seattle, and it’s right to. A 6.92 team total with an 80.8% win probability. The trap is paying up for name arms like Corbin Burnes and Michael Wacha on this slate.

Philly is 59 degrees with a 12 mph wind blowing in, and that helps explain the slate’s lowest total. Cleveland at KC has a 24% chance of rain, so keep an eye on it before lock.

Pitching

The Stud

Kade Anderson (SEA) $7,700 vs. LAA

The environment is as good as it gets. The Angels are simming for 3.10 runs, lowest on the slate, and Seattle wins 80.8% of the time. Anderson’s 22.73 sim DK is 6.5 points ahead of the next arm, with 7.2 strikeouts over 5.33 innings and a 28.69 ceiling.

He won’t be the most expensive arm, either. Four pitchers cost more and all four project worse. He’ll be the most popular pitcher on the slate, and the field is there for the right reason. We all know how much money we made betting against the Angels to strike out this year. Anderson’s really settled in as we go. He’s one of the best young arms in the game. Enjoy going there, especially when he’s only $7,700.

Verdict: Cash lock, chalk for the right reason, and eat it in GPPs too.

The Value

Jack Perkins (ATH) $5,200 vs. HOU

Perkins sims for 13.85 DK with a 21.97 ceiling. That’s the same projection as Dustin May ($6,700) and Davis Martin ($6,300) at a $1,100 to $1,500 discount. Paired with Anderson, he costs $12,900 for both arms, which leaves $37,100 for hitters, about $4,637 per bat.

The catch is where he’s pitching. He’s in the highest-total game, against a Houston lineup simming for 5.44, and the sim has him allowing 2.6 earned runs. Perkins was a dog last week for fantasy owners and season-long. I like both sides of this game, so you can play it either way, but at $5,200, he’s just too cheap to not throw.

Tournament Arms

Griffin Jax (TB) $8,600 vs. PHI

Jax is the second-best arm in the sim at 16.25 DK, with a 22.53 ceiling. Philly is simming for just 4.12 runs with the wind blowing in, and Tampa wins 53.8%. At $8,600 he lands in the same price range as Burnes and Wacha, and when prices are that close the field tends to pick the bigger name.

That’s the gap. He’s the second-best arm by 2.4 points, but I expect him to be owned like the fifth. If you fade the Burnes and Wacha crowd, you get the better pitcher for less money. They need to let Jax throw and get some pitches in as he heads into the playoffs here.

Davis Martin (CWS) $6,300 vs. COL

Martin sims for 13.3 DK with a 20.54 ceiling and a +1.46 Diff, and the White Sox win 54.4%. He’s within half a point of Perkins, but he won’t draw anything close to Perkins’ attention. He also pairs cleanly with a White Sox stack. You know it’s the last game of the season when I’m saying “pitch Davis Martin,” but it’s against the Rockies. That lineup is atrocious, and at his price point versus projection, he’s not going to have anybody on him. This is the kind of disgusting play that wins you a tournament.

Verdict: GPP leverage, the same projection as the chalk value arm with a small share of the ownership.

The Fade

Corbin Burnes (ARI) $9,200 vs. SD

The sim projects Burnes for 4.14 innings, the shortest outing of any starter. His 16.73 ceiling is the lowest on the slate and his 11.34 DK ranks tenth. People will play him because of the name. Wacha at $9,400 is the same story at 11.89. Remember, Burnes is just working his way back from that injury. He’s priced like he’s been top-tier. Burnes: hard pass.

Verdict: Fade, the field is there on name value and the sim doesn’t back it up.

Stacks

Seattle Mariners, 6.92 sim runs

This is the best offense on the slate by a run and a half, and Seattle’s hitters are cheap. The leverage ratio says eat it, but be picky about which bats. I expect ownership to pile onto Raleigh and Julio. Meanwhile Lazaro Montes bats eighth and sims for 10.42 with a 23.1 ceiling, which beats Julio’s 9.55. Cole Young (+1.90 Diff) and Josh Naylor at the bottom of the order get the same runs at a fraction of the ownership.

• Cal Raleigh, C, LU4, $4,900, chalk

• Randy Arozarena, OF, LU2, $5,500, popular

• Julio Rodriguez, OF, LU5, $4,500, chalk

• Dominic Canzone, OF, LU3, $4,100, moderate

• J.P. Crawford, SS, LU1, $3,500, moderate

• Lazaro Montes, OF, LU8, $3,600, low

• Josh Naylor, 1B, LU6, $3,800, low

• Cole Young, 2B, LU7, $3,300, low

Tag: Chalk worth eating, but build it from the bottom of the order. Skip the bring-back. The over 9.5 is a coin flip at 50.8%, and Seattle alone accounts for almost all of it.

Houston Astros, 5.44 sim runs

This game is the best over on the slate (58.2% over 9.5, 53.2% over 10). Every lineup that uses Perkins as its salary saver is betting against these bats. So if Perkins gets hit hard, you gain twice: your Astros score and the field’s cheap arm fails. Yordan will be popular, but the rest of this lineup should go overlooked. Remember, a lot of people are going to throw Perkins, so this is also valuable to be on the other side with the bats.

• Yordan Alvarez, OF, LU2, $6,600, popular

• Jeremy Pena, SS, LU1, $5,400, low

• Isaac Paredes, 3B, LU3, $4,800, low

• Jose Altuve, 2B, LU4, $4,600, low

• Yainer Diaz, C, LU5, $4,300, low

• Cam Smith, OF, LU8, $4,000, low

Tag: True leverage. The over percentage supports a bring-back, so add Lawrence Butler ($4,400, 9.31) or Carlos Cortes ($3,100, +1.22 Diff).

Chicago White Sox, 5.33 sim runs

Randal Grichuk has the biggest Diff on the slate (+3.29), and Tommy Pham (+1.92), Murakami (+1.22) and Brenton Doyle (+1.18) are all beating their projections against Jose Quintana. A six-man version costs about $24,600, and I expect low ownership across the board. The over 9.5 sits at 53.4%. We found the key to get Munetaka going. They just got to let him drink more. Comes back after getting hammered in one of the best clips of all time, screaming, “I am Japaneseeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,” and goes yard twice. Love to see it as they head into the playoffs.

• Randal Grichuk, OF, LU3, $3,700, low

• Munetaka Murakami, 1B, LU4, $5,200, moderate

• Miguel Vargas, 3B, LU1, $5,700, low

• Tommy Pham, OF, LU2, $2,700, low

• Chase Meidroth, 2B, LU5, $4,300, low

• Brenton Doyle, OF, LU6, $3,000, low

Tag: True leverage. For a bring-back, Jake McCarthy ($5,000, 9.21) or Cole Carrigg ($4,700, 9.15) works.

Bats by Position

Catcher

Raleigh’s 11.4 sim is the second-best bat on the slate, and he’s a lock for cash. In GPPs, Shea Langeliers sims for 9.57 in the best game, and I expect him to be owned at a fraction of Raleigh.

Cash: Cal Raleigh ($4,900)

GPP: Shea Langeliers ($5,500, low owned)

First Base

Naylor gives you 9.39 at $3,800 from the Seattle lineup, which is the best median per dollar at the position. Murakami is almost the same projection at 9.32. He’s more expensive, but he comes with a White Sox stack the field is ignoring.

Cash: Josh Naylor ($3,800)

GPP: Munetaka Murakami ($5,200, moderate)

Second Base

Ketel Marte’s 9.83 is the top median at second base. Cole Young sims for 9.13 at $3,300 with a +1.90 Diff. He’s the cheap way into the Seattle chalk, and the field’s attention will be on the bigger names at the top of that lineup.

Cash: Ketel Marte ($4,700)

GPP: Cole Young ($3,300, low owned)

Third Base

Jose Ramirez (9.71) edges Junior Caminero (9.62) and costs $1,000 less. Caminero is also hitting in a wind-in park. Miguel Vargas leads off in the White Sox stack at +0.94.

Cash: Jose Ramirez ($5,100)

GPP: Miguel Vargas ($5,700, low owned)

Shortstop

J.P. Crawford leads off for the best offense on the slate at $3,500 and sims for 9.70, which is the easy call. Bobby Witt Jr. at $6,400 has a -1.28 Diff, and his name will pull ownership his projection doesn’t deserve. Jeremy Pena leads off in the best game on the slate.

Cash: J.P. Crawford ($3,500)

GPP: Jeremy Pena ($5,400, low owned)

Outfield

Yordan’s 11.91 is the best median on the slate. Montes and Grichuk both clear 10.4 for under $3,700, so they’re strong in cash as well as GPPs. For GPP pivots, Canzone (10.03) is the Seattle bat the field forgets about, Cam Smith has a +1.12 Diff batting eighth, and Pham at $2,700 frees up salary.

Cash: Yordan Alvarez ($6,600), Lazaro Montes ($3,600), Randal Grichuk ($3,700)

GPP: Dominic Canzone ($4,100, moderate), Cam Smith ($4,000, low), Tommy Pham ($2,700, low)

The Leverage Board

1. Randal Grichuk, +3.29 Diff, 10.68 sim, low owned. That’s the biggest gap on the slate. People see a $3,700 veteran and keep scrolling, but the sim has him as the third-best bat.

2. Griffin Jax, 16.25 sim, low to moderate owned. He’s the second-best arm, and the field will give his price range to Burnes and Wacha on name .

3. Lazaro Montes, 10.42 sim, 23.1 ceiling, low owned. Batting eighth hides him. His ceiling beats every Seattle bat except Raleigh’s. If you read anything I wrote this year, you know I love Montes, this kid.

4. The Houston lineup, 5.44 runs, low owned outside Yordan. Nobody noticed that the chalk value arm is pitching in the slate’s best run environment.

5. Tommy Pham, +1.92 Diff at $2,700, low owned. He’s a min-price bat hitting second in a 5.33 lineup. This is my ode to Jon on my last write up of the season. How can I not say that Tommy Pham is not leverage?

6. Nathaniel Lowe, +1.76 Diff at $2,800, low owned. He bats sixth for Cleveland, so nobody’s looking.

The Builds

Cash Build

This build goes for the highest median and ignores ownership. Anderson plus Jax costs $16,300, which leaves $33,700 for hitters, or $4,212 per bat. That’s tighter than the Perkins build, but Jax’s extra 2.4 points are worth more than the $3,400 Perkins would save.

• SP: Kade Anderson, SEA, $7,700 (7,700)

• SP: Griffin Jax, TB, $8,600 (16,300)

• C: Cal Raleigh, SEA, $4,900 (21,200)

• 1B: Nathaniel Lowe, CLE, $2,800 (24,000)

• 2B: Cole Young, SEA, $3,300 (27,300)

• 3B: Jose Ramirez, CLE, $5,100 (32,400)

• SS: J.P. Crawford, SEA, $3,500 (35,900)

• OF: Yordan Alvarez, HOU, $6,600 (42,500)

• OF: Lazaro Montes, SEA, $3,600 (46,100)

• OF: Randal Grichuk, CWS, $3,700 (49,800)

Total: $49,800 of $50,000

GPP Build

This lineup wins if Houston hits Perkins hard, the game clears 10 runs, and Anderson does what the sim expects. The deviation from the obvious build is skipping Perkins for Davis Martin and stacking against the field’s value arm. That way the build gains on every lineup that uses Perkins if he struggles.

Anderson plus Martin costs $14,000, which leaves $36,000 for hitters, or $4,500 per bat.

• SP: Kade Anderson, SEA, $7,700 (7,700)

• SP: Davis Martin, CWS, $6,300 (14,000)

• C: Yainer Diaz, HOU, $4,300 (18,300)

• 1B: Josh Naylor, SEA, $3,800 (22,100)

• 2B: Jose Altuve, HOU, $4,600 (26,700)

• 3B: Isaac Paredes, HOU, $4,800 (31,500)

• SS: J.P. Crawford, SEA, $3,500 (35,000)

• OF: Yordan Alvarez, HOU, $6,600 (41,600)

• OF: Cam Smith, HOU, $4,000 (45,600)

• OF: Lawrence Butler, ATH, $4,400 (50,000)

Total: $50,000 of $50,000

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Jacob deGrom blew it hard last night, giving up a snowman in a very important game for the Rangers.

That pushes his ERA up to 4.20 for the year, but that’s not quite what he deserves with an elite 23.2% K-BB%. The home/road splits are striking:

A 6.04 ERA on the road! He’s given up 5+ earned runs seven times this year, and five of those have come on the road. He didn’t even give up a home run last night, just a bunch of hits strung together and a few walks.

The Rangers were bailed out by the Athletics beating the Astros. So that division remains tied, and neither team can have a winning season.

MEANWHILE my Pirates sit at 81-79 and have been eliminated.

Hunter Brown - 5.33IP 2H 1ER 2R 4K 4BB

He walked four, which didn’t hurt him too bad since he gave up just one run. But what it did was get him out of the game earlier, and then the reliever came in and gave up three runs.

Henry Bolte did some damage with two hits and two RBI, raising his OPS to .766. That guy’s hitting .321/.392/.462 at home this year. I think I might take him in the 5th round or something next year. He looks like a dream for fantasy leagues with that home park sticking around for one more year.

The other big race is the Phillies vs. D’Backs for the final Wild Card spot. Things got a lot closer last night as the Phillies got blanked by the Rays and the D’Backs smashed Casey Mize.

Freddy Peralta kept the Phillies off the board for 5.1 innings and then the bullpen did the Rays bullpen thing.

It took the Rays a few weeks, but they’ve figured something out with Freddy. He has a 0.79 ERA in his last six starts (34 innings). Still only a 21% K% in that time, but a .243 xwOBA and .187 BABIP to help out. The pitch mix over that time:

The Rays like their changeups, and they’ve made that pitch elite for Peralta. The heater has worked a lot better too. It’s a good life being a pitcher on the Rays.

The Phillies still have a one-game lead. They need one win and one D’Backs loss. Or zero wins and two D’Backs losses. Or just two wins. But this could be a brutal collapse for the Phillies, and it gives us something to watch today and tomorrow.

The Marlins are YOLO’ing the end of this season. Eury Perez threw a complete-game shutout against the Braves after throwing an inning of relief on Tuesday.

17 whiffs for Eury in his best start of the year, and probably of his career. I thought they’d basically shut him down for that one, but they did not. Very interesting things happening with the Marlins right now.

Reid Detmers - 6.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 7K 2BB

He finished up his season with six more scoreless. He’s finishes with a 3.41 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 28.5% K%, and 6.5% BB% in 185 innings. That’s after throwing just 64 innings last year. Very impressive season from Reid, who has a 1.95 ERA in his final 10 starts. Do we buy that for next year? How expensive will he be? Time will tell… but the Angels are feeling good about having held onto him at the deadline. Remember that there was a report that he had been traded to the Cubs. Maybe that was totally fake, or maybe it was a real deal that fell through at the last minute or something.

Robert Gasser - 6.0IP 1H 1ER 1R 9K 1BB

This dude is throwing some good innings for the Brewers to close out their regular season. Since August 26th:

He might have pitched his way above Dustin May in the rotation, which means you could see him throw a game three in about a week and a half. A May + Gasser piggyback thing makes some sense with the velo righty and the crafty lefty. By “crafty” we usually just mean “doesn’t have very good stuff”. He’s throwing a lot of sweepers (25%) during this stretch, but he has a deep mix and is a hard guy to time up and square up.

But yeah, the Brewers are going to need to win those Misiorowski and Henderson starts, because the rotation depth isn’t there like it is with the Dodgers.

Tarik Skubal threw just 75 pitches in his regular season finale. But that got him through seven scoreless innings with a 10:0 K:BB on three hits.

→ 7.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 10K 0BB

Gavin Williams - 3.33IP 5H 4ER 4R 4K 4BB

He fell flat, but the Guards won the game anyways. The White Sox beat the Rockies, so that division crown is still up for grabs. FanGraphs says 60% chance for Cleveland and 40% for the White Sox. Both teams will be in the Wild Card round, but the division winner will get to host their series.

Pete Alonso hit two homers in the double-header. He has 43 now. He’s scored 100 runs and driven in 113. That’s his first season with 100 runs. This is the best wRC+ of his career (148). His previous high was 144 in 2019 when he blasted 53 homers.

Dylan Beavers, our boy, joined him with two homers. But we were wrong about that guy. Bad season for the Beav.

Two homers for Carter Jensen, who leads the Royals with 27 of those. A .237 average leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s probably a 30-homer projection guy next year. In a lot of ways it was a success for the young Royals catching prospects.

And Murakami added two more homers to get to 35 and counting. Average is up to .209, but the walk rate has him at a .351 OBP and .834 OPS. Everybody loves the guy now because he yelled “I am Japanese” during their playoff clinch celebration. Something endearing about people yelling stuff while struggling with the English language, I suppose.

One more… Roman Anthony had four hits in their double header. He’s been pretty good since getting back from the long IL stint. .812 OPS with four homers in 110 PAs. Lots of strikeouts and a very poor 2.1% HR% this year, though.

Pretty mixed results from the 22 year old. But he should be poised to have a pretty nice season in 2027 if he can stay healthy and use the lessons learned from this year.

And now we move on to a new day!

Pitcher Reports

Yesterdays Pitcher Debuts

Troy Taylor (SEA): 2.0IP, 3H, 1ER, 2SO, 1BB

Alexander Cornielle (NYY): 1.0IP, 3H, 2ER, 2SO, 1BB

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. Tarik Skubal

2. Trevor Rogers

3. Cristopher Sanchez

4. Sean Burke

5. Eury Perez

6. Jackson Jobe

7. Brendan Beck

8. Brayan Bello

9. Reid Detmers

10. Brandon Young

11. Joe Ryan

12. Robert Gasser

13. Freddy Peralta

14. Tomoyuki Sugano

15. Bryce Miller

16. David Peterson

17. Jacob deGrom

18. Andrew Alvarez

19. Gavin Williams

20. Yunior Marte

21. Brandon Pfaadt

22. Clay Holmes

23. Bubba Chandler

24. Jacob Lopez

25. Nick Lodolo

26. Hunter Brown

27. Michael McGreevy

28. Casey Mize

29. Noah Cameron

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Eury Perez (vs. ATL): 39.05 Points

2. Tarik Skubal (vs. SF): 37.95 Points

3. Reid Detmers (vs. SEA): 29.1 Points

4. Robert Gasser (vs. STL): 28.3 Points

5. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. TB): 28.15 Points

6. Joe Ryan (vs. TEX): 26.5 Points

7. Sean Burke (vs. COL): 24.99 Points

8. Jackson Jobe (vs. PIT): 24.99 Points

9. Will Warren (vs. BAL): 24.46 Points

10. Jedixson Paez (vs. CHC): 23.45 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Tarik Skubal (LAD): 21 Whiffs (75 Pitches)

2. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 18 Whiffs (100 Pitches)

3. Brendan Beck (NYY): 17 Whiffs (97 Pitches)

4. Eury Perez (MIA): 17 Whiffs (105 Pitches)

5. Jackson Jobe (DET): 15 Whiffs (86 Pitches)

6. Sean Burke (CWS): 15 Whiffs (89 Pitches)

7. Reid Detmers (LAA): 14 Whiffs (86 Pitches)

8. Brandon Young (BAL): 14 Whiffs (82 Pitches)

9. Andrew Alvarez (WSH): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)

10. Ryan Yarbrough (NYY): 14 Whiffs (49 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Tarik Skubal (LAD): 62.7 Strike%, 20.0 Ball%

2. Will Warren (NYY): 57.4 Strike%, 27.8 Ball%

3. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 57.0 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%

4. Sean Burke (CWS): 55.1 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%

5. Robert Gasser (MIL): 54.0 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%

6. Albert Suarez (BAL): 53.4 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%

7. Jedixson Paez (BOS): 53.2 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%

8. Joe Ryan (MIN): 52.4 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%

9. Bryce Miller (SEA): 52.2 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%

10. Jackson Jobe (DET): 51.2 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%

11. Trevor Rogers (BAL): 50.9 Strike%, 25.5 Ball%

12. Eury Perez (MIA): 50.5 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%

13. David Peterson (CHC): 50.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%

14. Reid Detmers (LAA): 50.0 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%

15. Gavin Williams (CLE): 48.6 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Tarik Skubal: 75 Pitches, 20 Outs, 3.75 POUT

2. Eury Perez: 105 Pitches, 27 Outs, 3.89 POUT

3. Grant Holmes: 54 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.5 POUT

4. Trevor Rogers: 55 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.58 POUT

5. Brandon Pfaadt: 107 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.65 POUT

6. Tomoyuki Sugano: 90 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.74 POUT

7. Reid Detmers: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT

8. Brayan Bello: 58 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.83 POUT

9. Robert Gasser: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT

10. Albert Suarez: 58 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.83 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Freddy Peralta’s FF velo (50 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 96.2

Brayan Bello’s SI velo (20 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 96.8

Justin Hagenman’s FC velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.5

Casey Mize’s SI velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 92.2

Bubba Chandler’s FF velo (39 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 96.3

Clay Holmes’s FC velo (14 pitches) DOWN -4.4mph to 83.8

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Brandon Pfaadt’s ST usage (30.5%) up 13.9 points

Brayan Bello’s FF usage (25.9%) up 12.8 points

David Peterson’s FF usage (41.8%) up 17.9 points

Gavin Williams’s ST usage (36.5%) up 12.3 points

Grant Holmes’s SI usage (40.7%) up 34.1 points

Grant Holmes’s CH usage (14.8%) up 10.2 points

Hunter Brown’s SI usage (39.0%) up 13.6 points

Hunter Brown’s FC usage (14.0%) up 10.0 points

Jake Bennett’s CH usage (41.5%) up 12.6 points

Joe Ryan’s ST usage (28.2%) up 13.7 points

Justin Hagenman’s FF usage (38.6%) up 25.5 points

Michael McGreevy’s CH usage (28.3%) up 11.2 points

Nick Lodolo’s FF usage (43.5%) up 15.3 points

Noah Cameron’s SI usage (14.9%) up 12.0 points

Sean Burke’s FC usage (16.9%) up 11.7 points

Tarik Skubal’s FF usage (48.0%) up 14.7 points

Will Warren’s ST usage (35.2%) up 14.8 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Robbie Ray Sinker: +25.3%

Bryan Hudson Sweeper: +21.7%

Bryan Hudson 4-Seam Fastball: -19.3%

Dustin May Sinker: +18.9%

David Sandlin Sweeper: +18.5%

Robbie Ray 4-Seam Fastball: -17.5%

Brayan Bello 4-Seam Fastball: +17.5%

Andrew Painter Changeup: +16.8%

Walbert Urena 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%

Trey Gibson 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%

Jacob deGrom Slider: -15.2%

Ryan Johnson Sweeper: +15.1%

David Peterson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.6%

Anthony Kay Sweeper: +14.6%

Jack Perkins 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%

Jackson Jobe 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%

Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%

Joe Ryan Sweeper: +13.8%

Kumar Rocker 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%

Kyle Freeland Sinker: +13.6%

Bryan Woo Slider: -13.2%

Quinn Mathews Sinker: +13.0%

David Sandlin 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%

Brayan Bello Cutter: -12.7%

Ryan Johnson Sinker: -12.6%

Grayson Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%

Trey Gibson Sinker: -12.5%

Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%

Anthony Kay 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%

Jeffrey Springs Slider: -12.3%

Dustin May 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%

Andre Pallante 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%

Richard Lovelady Sinker: +12.1%

Shota Imanaga Split-Finger: +12.1%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Gabriel Hughes - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.4 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 188.0 Luck Score

Andrew Sears - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.417 BABIP, 22.0 HR/FB, 181.0 Luck Score

Brady Singer - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.442 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 171.0 Luck Score

Jacob Lopez - 39.0 RISP H%, 0.333 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 169.0 Luck Score

George Kirby - 35.0 RISP H%, 0.383 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 168.0 Luck Score

Luis Mey - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.478 BABIP, 14.0 HR/FB, 168.0 Luck Score

Tanner Gordon - 34.0 RISP H%, 0.596 BABIP, 17.0 HR/FB, 164.0 Luck Score

Didier Fuentes - 44.0 RISP H%, 0.4 BABIP, 14.0 HR/FB, 161.0 Luck Score

Hunter Gaddis - 23.0 RISP H%, 0.423 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 160.0 Luck Score

Jose Soriano - 35.0 RISP H%, 0.349 BABIP, 20.0 HR/FB, 155.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Dean Kremer - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.091 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 15.0 Luck Score

Joey Cantillo - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.129 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 16.0 Luck Score

Emmet Sheehan - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.13 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 16.0 Luck Score

Yuki Matsui - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.222 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 27.0 Luck Score

Griffin Jax - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.227 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 29.0 Luck Score

Freddy Peralta - 12.0 RISP H%, 0.195 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 36.0 Luck Score

Cody Bradford - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.207 BABIP, 9.0 HR/FB, 36.0 Luck Score

Robert Gasser - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.143 BABIP, 11.0 HR/FB, 36.0 Luck Score

Blade Tidwell - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.154 BABIP, 11.0 HR/FB, 37.0 Luck Score

Cristian Javier - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.217 BABIP, 8.0 HR/FB, 38.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Tyler Glasnow - 96 TBF, 36.4% CSW%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.9% CSW%

Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 34.8% CSW%

Gavin Williams - 89 TBF, 34.1% CSW%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 33.5% CSW%

Jackson Jobe - 89 TBF, 33.4% CSW%

Jared Jones - 69 TBF, 33.3% CSW%

Patrick Sandoval - 72 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 74 TBF, 32.7% CSW%

Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 32.5% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jared Jones - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%

Tyler Glasnow - 96 TBF, 37.5% K%

Hunter Brown - 86 TBF, 36.0% K%

Jackson Jobe - 89 TBF, 36.0% K%

Gavin Williams - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%

Cam Schlittler - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 32.9% K%

Reid Detmers - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jared Jones - 69 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 31.8% K-BB%

Jackson Jobe - 89 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%

Reid Detmers - 89 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%

Brayan Bello - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%

Parker Messick - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%

Shota Imanaga - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%

Sean Manaea - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Andre Pallante - 70 TBF, 69.6% GB%

Framber Valdez - 94 TBF, 65.6% GB%

Hunter Brown - 86 TBF, 65.2% GB%

Clay Holmes - 93 TBF, 64.5% GB%

Walbert Urena - 99 TBF, 64.4% GB%

Jose Soriano - 91 TBF, 63.2% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 60.5% GB%

Max Fried - 66 TBF, 60.0% GB%

Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 57.8% GB%

Tyler Phillips - 67 TBF, 57.4% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Brayan Bello - 71 TBF, 31.0 K%, 4.2 BB%, 53.3% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.8 K%, 3.0 BB%, 60.5% GB%

Chris Sale - 47 TBF, 34.0 K%, 4.3 BB%, 48.1% GB%

Jacob Misiorowski - 54 TBF, 37.0 K%, 5.6 BB%, 48.4% GB%

Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 57.8% GB%

Kyle Leahy - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.9 BB%, 44.1% GB%

Logan Gilbert - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 53.2% GB%

Logan Webb - 47 TBF, 31.9 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.7% GB%

Parker Messick - 94 TBF, 31.9 K%, 5.3 BB%, 43.9% GB%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.1 BB%, 45.5% GB%

Shota Imanaga - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 48.8% GB%

Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 27.3 K%, 5.1 BB%, 49.3% GB%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 5.4 BB%, 54.2% GB%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 34.7 K%, 6.1 BB%, 43.1% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Trevor Rogers - +3.9% CSW%, -5.2 BB%

Peter Lambert - +4.4% CSW%, -5.9 BB%

Payton Tolle - +4.5% CSW%, -2.9 BB%

Carlos Rodon - +4.0% CSW%, -3.5 BB%

Patrick Sandoval - +4.2% CSW%, -1.6 BB%

Ryan Johnson - +3.3% CSW%, -7.5 BB%

Andre Pallante - +2.6% CSW%, -2.8 BB%

Jared Jones - +2.3% CSW%, -3.3 BB%

Kevin Gausman - +3.8% CSW%, -2.1 BB%

Seth Lugo - +3.4% CSW%, -2.6 BB%

Sean Manaea - +2.7% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Christian Scott - +2.3% CSW%, -4.0 BB%

Emmet Sheehan - +2.2% CSW%, -2.1 BB%

Gabriel Hughes - +2.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

Carter Jensen (KC) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Dominic Canzone (SEA) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Dylan Beavers (BAL) 11 PA, 20 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Lars Nootbaar (ARI) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Munetaka Murakami (CWS) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR

Pete Alonso (BAL) 10 PA, 17 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Spencer Jones (NYY) 8 PA, 19 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Zach Neto (LAA) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Dillon Dingler, Yesterday: 110.8 Previous High: 110.7

Hardest Hit Balls

James Wood (WSH) - 116.2mph - None

Spencer Jones (NYY) - 114.8mph - single

Ketel Marte (ARI) - 114.0mph - None

Munetaka Murakami (CWS) - 113.0mph - single

James Wood (WSH) - 112.9mph - single

Pete Alonso (BAL) - 112.8mph - home_run

Juan Soto (NYM) - 112.6mph - None

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.5mph - field_out

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.2mph - field_out

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 112.2mph - double

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Dillon Dingler - 57 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, 0.106 Diff

Wilyer Abreu - 70 PA, 0.25 wOBA, 0.341 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff

J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 0.19 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff

Turner Hill - 57 PA, 0.181 wOBA, 0.262 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff

Bo Bichette - 89 PA, 0.286 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff

Freddie Freeman - 70 PA, 0.195 wOBA, 0.273 xwOBA, 0.078 Diff

Ezequiel Duran - 74 PA, 0.174 wOBA, 0.251 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff

Salvador Perez - 68 PA, 0.321 wOBA, 0.396 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff

Thomas Saggese - 69 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff

Yandy Diaz - 76 PA, 0.2 wOBA, 0.271 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff

Bottom 10

Angel Martinez - 56 PA, 0.463 wOBA, 0.306 xwOBA, -0.157 Diff

Nolan Arenado - 76 PA, 0.553 wOBA, 0.403 xwOBA, -0.15 Diff

Spencer Torkelson - 66 PA, 0.468 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, -0.133 Diff

Randy Arozarena - 79 PA, 0.458 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, -0.111 Diff

Travis Bazzana - 64 PA, 0.391 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff

Gabriel Moreno - 81 PA, 0.447 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff

Brice Turang - 75 PA, 0.493 wOBA, 0.396 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 68 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff

Yainer Diaz - 66 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff

Jonathan Aranda - 64 PA, 0.377 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Pete Alonso: 38.0 PA, +0.185 xwOBA OE

Munetaka Murakami: 38.0 PA, +0.184 xwOBA OE

Brandon Lowe: 39.0 PA, +0.16 xwOBA OE

Will Smith: 29.0 PA, +0.15 xwOBA OE

Ronald Acuna Jr.: 28.0 PA, +0.149 xwOBA OE

Zack Gelof: 38.0 PA, +0.134 xwOBA OE

Mike Trout: 41.0 PA, +0.131 xwOBA OE

Dominic Canzone: 36.0 PA, +0.12 xwOBA OE

Dillon Dingler: 28.0 PA, +0.109 xwOBA OE

Xander Bogaerts: 30.0 PA, +0.098 xwOBA OE

Zach Neto: 42.0 PA, +0.098 xwOBA OE

Walker Jenkins: 32.0 PA, +0.095 xwOBA OE

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 40.0 PA, +0.093 xwOBA OE

Salvador Perez: 33.0 PA, +0.092 xwOBA OE

Yordan Alvarez: 38.0 PA, +0.091 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Christian Koss: 27.0 PA, -0.226 xwOBA OE

Ozzie Albies: 32.0 PA, -0.173 xwOBA OE

Luis Garcia Jr.: 28.0 PA, -0.171 xwOBA OE

Colson Montgomery: 30.0 PA, -0.152 xwOBA OE

Jeff McNeil: 32.0 PA, -0.146 xwOBA OE

Matt McLain: 28.0 PA, -0.144 xwOBA OE

Ernie Clement: 28.0 PA, -0.141 xwOBA OE

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 28.0 PA, -0.137 xwOBA OE

Travis Bazzana: 30.0 PA, -0.134 xwOBA OE

Nathan Church: 27.0 PA, -0.128 xwOBA OE

Jonny DeLuca: 36.0 PA, -0.128 xwOBA OE

Adley Rutschman: 32.0 PA, -0.123 xwOBA OE

A.J. Ewing: 34.0 PA, -0.121 xwOBA OE

Ezequiel Duran: 36.0 PA, -0.121 xwOBA OE

Manny Machado: 40.0 PA, -0.116 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Elly De La Cruz - 80 PA, 45 BIP, 15 Brls, 33.3 Brl%

Munetaka Murakami - 79 PA, 30 BIP, 8 Brls, 26.7 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 84 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%

Josh Lowe - 48 PA, 23 BIP, 5 Brls, 21.7 Brl%

Wyatt Langford - 74 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%

Austin Riley - 67 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%

Emmanuel Rodriguez - 48 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%

Jake Bauers - 58 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%

Mike Trout - 84 PA, 42 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.0 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 64 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Elly De La Cruz - 80 PA, 0.478 xwOBA

Brett Baty - 48 PA, 0.472 xwOBA

Pete Alonso - 84 PA, 0.468 xwOBA

Riley Greene - 78 PA, 0.467 xwOBA

Will Smith - 58 PA, 0.441 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 79 PA, 0.43 xwOBA

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 76 PA, 0.427 xwOBA

Coby Mayo - 79 PA, 0.425 xwOBA

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 85 PA, 0.422 xwOBA

Mike Trout - 84 PA, 0.419 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 75 PA, 117 Swings, 98.3 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 81 PA, 113 Swings, 92.0 Cont%

Nathan Lukes - 64 PA, 124 Swings, 91.9 Cont%

Ernie Clement - 62 PA, 93 Swings, 91.4 Cont%

Nico Hoerner - 80 PA, 144 Swings, 91.0 Cont%

Sam Antonacci - 64 PA, 105 Swings, 90.5 Cont%

Geraldo Perdomo - 80 PA, 121 Swings, 90.1 Cont%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 68 PA, 133 Swings, 89.5 Cont%

Jung Hoo Lee - 49 PA, 88 Swings, 88.6 Cont%

Mookie Betts - 78 PA, 121 Swings, 88.4 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jackson Chourio - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Cooper Pratt - 6 Attempts (5 steals)

Zach Neto - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Jonah Cox - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Otto Lopez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Dylan Crews - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Josh Naylor - 4 Attempts (2 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Jose Ramirez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Samad Taylor - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Richie Palacios - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jonah Cox - 14 Attempts (11 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 11 Attempts (11 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 11 Attempts (10 steals)

Oneil Cruz - 11 Attempts (8 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 10 Attempts (9 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 9 Attempts (7 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 9 Attempts (9 steals)

Cooper Pratt - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 8 Attempts (8 steals)

Miguel Vargas - 8 Attempts (8 steals)

Richie Palacios - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Jorge Mateo - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Samad Taylor - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Zack Gelof - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Brett Baty - 48 PA, 12.5 K%, 14.7 Brl%

Josh Jung - 48 PA, 18.8 K%, 14.3 Brl%

Riley Greene - 78 PA, 19.2 K%, 18.9 Brl%

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 76 PA, 15.8 K%, 17.2 Brl%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 68 PA, 13.2 K%, 15.1 Brl%

William Contreras - 66 PA, 19.7 K%, 14.6 Brl%

Zack Gelof - 74 PA, 18.9 K%, 17.0 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Elly De La Cruz - 116 PA, +0.113 xwOBA

Carter Jensen - 110 PA, +0.108 xwOBA

Coby Mayo - 109 PA, +0.105 xwOBA

Zack Gelof - 115 PA, +0.097 xwOBA

Kazuma Okamoto - 105 PA, +0.093 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 113 PA, +0.089 xwOBA

Eugenio Suarez - 89 PA, +0.087 xwOBA

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 131 PA, +0.084 xwOBA

Teoscar Hernandez - 114 PA, +0.078 xwOBA

Riley Greene - 92 PA, +0.074 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

Elly De La Cruz - 116 PA, +17.9 Brl%

Zack Gelof - 115 PA, +8.4 Brl%

Daylen Lile - 97 PA, +8.4 Brl%

Carter Jensen - 110 PA, +8.0 Brl%

Tim Tawa - 98 PA, +6.0 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 113 PA, +5.5 Brl%

Alex Bregman - 102 PA, +5.4 Brl%

Lawrence Butler - 118 PA, +5.4 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 89 PA, +5.4 Brl%

Teoscar Hernandez - 114 PA, +5.2 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Kyle Tucker - 108 PA, +9.4 Cont%

Konnor Griffin - 84 PA, +9.0 Cont%

Jonah Heim - 81 PA, +8.9 Cont%

Ketel Marte - 94 PA, +8.7 Cont%

Connor Norby - 98 PA, +8.7 Cont%

T.J. Rumfield - 115 PA, +8.0 Cont%

Coby Mayo - 109 PA, +7.4 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 110 PA, +7.4 Cont%

Hunter Goodman - 101 PA, +7.1 Cont%

Kody Clemens - 107 PA, +6.8 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Marcus Semien - 106 PA, -11.9 K%

Kazuma Okamoto - 105 PA, -10.3 K%

Nathan Church - 101 PA, -10.2 K%

Hunter Goodman - 101 PA, -9.5 K%

Zack Gelof - 115 PA, -9.4 K%

Wade Meckler - 102 PA, -8.7 K%

Braden Montgomery - 95 PA, -8.2 K%

Coby Mayo - 109 PA, -8.0 K%

Riley Greene - 92 PA, -7.5 K%

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 112 PA, -7.4 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Francisco Lindor: +2.7

Eugenio Suarez: +2.6

Zach Neto: +2.5

Geraldo Perdomo: +2.45

Jose Ramirez: +2.05

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

Hao Yu Lee: -2.8

Carson Kelly: -2.65

Julio Rodriguez: -2.6

Jakob Marsee: -2.6

Gunnar Henderson: -2.6

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Ben Rice - 0.426 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 76.9% Contact%, 20.1% Chase%, 20.6% K%

Carson Benge - 0.403 xwOBA, 11.6% Brl%, 80.5% Contact%, 23.5% Chase%, 19.4% K%

Kyle Tucker - 0.38 xwOBA, 11.6% Brl%, 88.9% Contact%, 21.2% Chase%, 9.1% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Ryan Jeffers - 35.0% Whiff%, 81.0% Weak%, 0.944 Cold Rating

Victor Caratini - 34.0% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.923 Cold Rating

Colson Montgomery - 33.3% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.914 Cold Rating

Christian Moore - 34.0% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.881 Cold Rating

Christian Koss - 37.3% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.874 Cold Rating

Brandon Nimmo - 42.4% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating

Jake Burger - 29.4% Whiff%, 80.6% Weak%, 0.853 Cold Rating

Tommy Edman - 28.9% Whiff%, 81.2% Weak%, 0.841 Cold Rating

Carter Jensen - 37.2% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.84 Cold Rating

A.J. Ewing - 31.4% Whiff%, 71.0% Weak%, 0.839 Cold Rating

Today’s SP Streamer Picks

Jack Perkins (7.0% Owned): Projected 5.4IP 2.53ER 4.9SO 2.3BB 13.47FPts

Jonah Tong (26.0% Owned): Projected 5.13IP 2.43ER 4.64SO 1.93BB 13.41FPts

Quinn Mathews (45.0% Owned): Projected 4.93IP 2.13ER 4.74SO 2.3BB 13.25FPts

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

Josh Jung - 35 PA, 1.203 OPS

Walker Jenkins - 32 PA, 1.147 OPS

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 29 PA, 1.072 OPS

Dominic Canzone - 36 PA, 1.024 OPS

Samad Taylor - 33 PA, 0.96 OPS

Jake Cronenworth - 36 PA, 0.949 OPS

Randal Grichuk - 27 PA, 0.933 OPS

Braden Montgomery - 28 PA, 0.893 OPS

Wade Meckler - 42 PA, 0.876 OPS

George Lombard Jr. - 38 PA, 0.868 OPS

Today’s Hitter Streamer Picks

Henry Bolte OF (49.0% Owned): Projected 0.72R 0.16HR 0.54RBI 1.25SO 0.37BB 0.21SB 8.97FPts

Victor Mesa Jr. CF (26.0% Owned): Projected 0.73R 0.2HR 0.55RBI 0.85SO 0.42BB 0.13SB 8.9FPts

J.P. Crawford SS (2.0% Owned): Projected 0.76R 0.13HR 0.55RBI 0.92SO 0.73BB 0.06SB 8.72FPts

Lazaro Montes OF (20.0% Owned): Projected 0.66R 0.23HR 0.6RBI 1.1SO 0.52BB 0.06SB 8.29FPts

Heriberto Hernandez LF (34.0% Owned): Projected 0.63R 0.21HR 0.47RBI 1.26SO 0.41BB 0.1SB 8.25FPts

Lars Nootbaar RF (7.0% Owned): Projected 0.7R 0.15HR 0.5RBI 0.83SO 0.64BB 0.04SB 8.15FPts

Josh Jung 3B (39.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.13HR 0.62RBI 0.83SO 0.28BB 0.03SB 8.05FPts

Jeff McNeil 2B (28.0% Owned): Projected 0.55R 0.11HR 0.66RBI 0.47SO 0.31BB 0.06SB 7.95FPts

Carlos Jorge SS (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.11HR 0.42RBI 1.05SO 0.34BB 0.23SB 7.87FPts

Yainer Diaz C (40.0% Owned): Projected 0.56R 0.16HR 0.67RBI 0.71SO 0.19BB 0.02SB 7.82FPts

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Sorry, boys and girls, nothing of value today. I don’t want to bet just to bet. I’ll never do that. Hopefully, we have some stuff tomorrow, and that’ll be it for the regular season. I will be throwing out to everyone some plays for the playoffs. I actually think the playoffs are one of the best things to bet because you get guys performing at their peak. There’ll still be more coming this season.

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Week 2 was a massacre. The backup plan in the Eagles won, but our main pick, the Buccaneers, lost. Thursday already claimed another popular option: the Falcons smoked the Packers 35-14 at Lambeau. Anyone who used GB is done. Luckily, my survivor pool is double elimination, so I’m still alive in that pool where I used the Bucs. The other pool I participate in is single elimination, and I used the Eagles. So I still have two picks to make this week!

As we can see, chalk lost again.

Quick Thoughts

Biggest spread - Chiefs (-10.5) at Miami

Best Week 3 burn - Chiefs at Miami

Interesting Options - Bills, Lions, Bengals, Jaguars, 49ers

Do not touch - Eagles, 49ers if you can save them, Panthers, Saints, anything sitting around a field goal

Chiefs ownership projections are around 26-30%. Next will be the Lions at 12-15%, the 49ers at 12-15%, and the Seahawks at 7-10%.

A sneaky option to keep the big dogs available is the Giants at home vs the Titans.

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Last regular season slate of the year for me. Sad to see it come to an end. But we’ll be hitting it hard for the first few days in the postseason when we have some four-game slates.

Let’s crush this one and finish on a high note.

Weather

Looks all clear on the main slate.

Game Data

Implications:

• Dodgers vs. Yunior Marte: 5.95 implied

• White Sox vs. Sugano: 5.60 implied (in Chicago)

• Astros vs. Lopez: 5.47 implied (in Sacramento)

• Brewers vs. McGreevy: 5.20 implied

Two cheaper offenses with implications above their season average:

• Blue Jays vs. Nick Lodolo

• Guardians vs. Noah Cameron

The White Sox, Guardians, and Astros are playing very important games, so maybe that’s a boost to players on those teams. The Dodgers have gotten healthy and are trying to gather some steam for the playoffs, we’ve seen them treating these games as very important, so I wouldn’t be worried about any limitations this weekend.

Pitchers

Lots of options on the board tonight.

Tarik Skubal ($11,000) has 21 strikeouts in his last two starts. He threw 99 and 91 pitches in those outings. The Dodgers are three games behind the Brewers for the #1 seed, but they’ve locked in a bye. So they won’t need Skubal until next Saturday. That doesn’t mean they won’t consider taking it easy, but it’s not a situation where they need to limit him so he can take the ball at full strength again in the middle of next week. It’s a great matchup and they haven’t eased off of him yet, so I think it’s a good play. BUT, it doesn’t take much doubt to get us off of an $11K pitcher. It’s possible they limit him to 75-80 pitches here just to be safe.

Reid Detmers ($9,400) goes to Seattle to finish up his breakout year. He threw 81 pitches last time, and he was pitching fine from what I can see. So this is quite likely a shorter outing for him. He’s their ace for next year and this game means nothing.

Gavin Williams ($9,700) is pitching in an important game as the Guardians try to win the division. They have just an 83-76 record, but that will be good enough to get a first-round bye if they win the division, since the winner of the AL West will come in with 82 wins maximum. What they wouldn’t love to see is Gavin throw a bunch of pitches and not be ready for a Wild Card game one if they don’t win the division. But since they have a one-game lead, my guess is they’re putting everything into winning this game to try to get that bye week so they can get have Williams on full rest. So yeah, I’d play Gavin Williams.

Jacob deGrom ($9,700) is another ace pitcher with no limitations here. The Rangers can win the division, and they’ll want to ride him there tonight.

Joe Ryan ($9,700) is on the other side of that one, and he threw 99 pitches last time, so they haven’t been showing signs of shutting him down early.

Hunter Brown ($8,900) is in Sacramento, which is not a good spot to be, but it’s a super important game and he’s been pitching pretty well lately.

I can’t believe how complicated this pitching slate is, I thought we’d have a pretty easy weekend. But for DFS purposes, I think it’s best to just stick to the studs who are in important games. So my list would be:

1. Gavin Williams $9,700 vs. KC

2. Jacob deGrom $9,700 vs. MIN

3. Tarik Skubal $11,000 vs. SF

4. Hunter Brown $8,900 vs. ATH

Other options I’d play if I’m expanding the pool:

• Joe Ryan $9,700 vs. TEX

• Sean Burke $8,500 vs. COL

• Jose Soriano $8,000 vs. CIN

The Reid Detmers fade is alarming, because he’s been so good, and we don’t know for sure that he’ll be limited in this one. But I think it’s too likely that he goes five innings and out to make that play at $9400.

Building for a cash lineup, I think I’m locking in Gavin Williams and Jacob deGrom to start with.

Hitters

We have a ton of hitters popping hugely in the projections. Here are the top projections above a 2x value, you usually don’t see this many.

1. Munetaka Murakami $4,800: 10.1 points

2. Garrett Mitchell $4,000: 9.5 points

3. Kyle Teel $3,500: 9.17 points

4. Drake Baldwin $4,500: 9.1 points

5. Sam Antonacci $4,300: 9.1 points

6. Heriberto Hernandez $4,000: 8.99 points

There are two catchers on that that, so you can’t play them both.

Some of the biggest values that project above seven points:

1. Carlos Jorge $2,500

2. Pavin Smith $2,300

3. Moises Ballesteros $3,000

4. Charles McAdoo $2,800

5. Kyle Teel $3,500

6. Lars Nootbaar $3,100

7. Jakob Marsee $3,200

8. Cooper Pratt $3,100

9. Kyle Stowers $3,500

10. Luis Lara $3,300

I put those five in bold because I think they’re actually good hitters and not just guys who are projecting well because of the price.

It looks like a lot of White Sox are in play on this Friday night. My guys at RPS will be stiff in the waist area for this spot.

Offenses I’m really focused on when looking at the full picture:

1. White Sox vs. Sugano

2. Astros vs. Jacob Lopez

3. Brewers vs. McGreevy

4. Marlins vs. Grant Holmes

5. D’Backs vs. Casey Mize

Casey Mize gave up a .273 xwOBA with the Tigers. Something has gone horribly wrong since he’s gone to the Padres, though. He’s given up a .342 xwOBA and ten homers with a pathetic 13% K% and 9% BB%. One of the worst pitchers in the league right now, and the Diamondbacks probably can’t lose again if they want any chance of making the playoffs.

I’ve already narrowed it down pretty well.

Pitchers:

1. Gavin Williams $9,700 vs. KC

2. Jacob deGrom $9,700 vs. MIN

3. Tarik Skubal $11,000 vs. SF

4. Hunter Brown $8,900 vs. ATH

Offenses:

1. White Sox vs. Sugano

2. Astros vs. Jacob Lopez

3. Brewers vs. McGreevy

4. Marlins vs. Grant Holmes

5. D’Backs vs. Casey Mize

But let’s look at each position a bit closer to see what other plays stick out.

CATCHERS

Kyle Teel $3,500

Clearly the best play on the slate. 8.4-point projection at $3,500 in one of the best matchups of the night

Shea Langeliers $5,500

Not quite an ideal spot with Hunter Brown on the hill. But the upside for Langeliers at home is unmatched.

Yainer Diaz $4,000

The Astros pop in Sacramento. Against Lopez, we want more of the righties, and that’s Yainer. Diaz has suddenly shown a pretty good season line with a .763 OPS. He’s hit .287/.326/.425 against lefties, and this is the best park imagineable for him.

Gabriel Moreno $4,200

Moreno has an .871 OPS this year with 16 bombs. It’s been a career year for him, and he gets the juicy spot with the current form of Casey Mize.

FIRST BASE

Munetaka Murakami $4,800

Kyle Stowers $3,500

Up to a .459 SLG this year with a 12.8% Brl%. He’s hit .246/.331/.481 against righties this year with 19 bombs, so this is very cheap for a guy with this much power against Grant Holmes.

Christian Walker $4,100

Jake Bauers $4,500

.880 OPS this year and a great spot vs. McGreevy.

SECOND BASE

Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,200

Pfaadt can handle righties, and this is expensive for Tatis when we have other offenses we like better, but Tatis has been right there with PCA for being the best fantasy point scorer in the league over the last few months.

Jose Altuve $4,500

Great spot for his lack of bat speed to turn into a cheap homer, and the Astros should score runs here.

Ketel Marte $4,600

THIRD BASE

Isaac Paredes $4,700

Jose Ramirez $5,100

Faces the lefty Cameron, and he has done most of his slugging in these spots. .475 SLG as a right-handed batter, .329 as a lefty.

Miguel Vargas $5,400

He’s expensive, and the projections haven’t really bought into him this year, but he’s the best fantasy point scorer on the White Sox, so he’s an instrumental part of those stacks.

Colson Montgomery $3,900

I could understand leaving him off. He’s hitting .200/.283/.410 this year, and has just a .317 SLG in the second half. Looks pretty busted.

Javier Sanoja $3,300

Guy has been shockingly good in the second half, and remains very cheap here on an offense we like.

SHORTSTOP

Corey Seager $3,400

So, so cheap for Seager.

Jeremy Pena $5,200

If Seager’s price wasn’t so ridiculous, Pena would be the top play by far. He probably still is as a lead-off man in Sac town.

Elly De La Cruz $5,900

If you just want to play the hot bats, Elly is that guy. But the matchup with Soriano and the price has me taking the $700 discount down to Pena.

Cooper Pratt $3,100

Pratt’s hitting .282/.346/.368 this year. Not a ton of power, but plenty of base knoks and steals, and the Brewers are in a great spot as they try to lock down this #1 seed with one more win.

OUTFIELD

Yordan Alvarez $6,500

Lawrence Butler $4,200

Henry Bolte $4,800

Garrett Mitchell $4,000

Jackson Chourio $6,000

Jackson Merrill $4,700

Lars Nootbaar $3,100

Jakob Marsee $3,200

Sam Antonacci $4,300

Heriberto Hernandez $4,000

Here’s how the optimizer plays our Astros + White Sox with deGrom + Williams.

It’s tough to get the bats you want spending $19,400 at pitcher. It’s a good night to play 20 tourney lineups with the shortened player pool I’ve established and let it rip.

The raw optimal projected lineup with no interventions:

SP Bryce Miller
SP Tarik Skubal
C Yainer Diaz
1B Pavin Smith
2B Jose Altuve
3B Isaac Paredes
SS Corey Seager
OF Shohei Ohtani
OF Lars Nootbaar
OF Brandon Nimmo

But I’d rather do some manual intervention tonight. I’m trying to stick to the pitchers I know will have a full pitch count. Good luck out there!

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I fixed my dishwasher last night for $0. I took that thing apart and found a piece of plastic from a cooking utensil down by where the motor makes the spinny thing go. So that’s all it was.

And that’s a good feeling for a man. I’m probably like 30th-percentile handiness at best, but I’m trying to get better. Some evidence of that is that I have this drill, and I lost the charger for it when I moved six years ago. And it still works; the battery still has charge. I don’t use it very much, but I wouldn’t think a battery would its charge for six years even just sitting on the shelf. Maybe this is a supernatural situation. Like that story of the Maccabees where their oil never ran out. It was something like that, right? I’m not jewish, but I’m jewish-adjacent as an evangelical Christian, so I know a little bit!

I checked the story:

I was pretty much right! The oil never burned up for eight days! So I will name my drill battery Maccabee, unless that’s heretical in some way to members of the jewish community. Should I capitalize “jewish community”? I don’t know, I’m walking on eggshells here.

But yeah the dishwasher is fixed, it cost me nothing, so I bought myself a new button-down shirt on Amazon to celebrate. Thanks for your concern, to the four of you who even know what the hell I’m talking about.

We are down to just a couple of playoff races. The AL West is still up for grabs. There’s only one playoff spot available to that division. The Texas team that wins the division will make the playoffs, the other will go home. And since the winner will have won the division, they’ll host some games, which is a little bit dumb, but that’s the rule.

The Astros and Rangers have the same record, but the Astros must have the tiebreaker because they’re being given a 70% chance to take the playoff spot. The Astros play three more games in Sacramento while the Rangers go to Minnesota. Both have their aces (deGrom & Brown) on the bump tonight. If the Astros can just hold serve playing the Athletics, they’ll take it. But it will get very interesting if the Rangers win tonight while the Astros lose.

The Diamondbacks and Phillies are fighting for the final NL Wild Card spot, but the Phillies have a two-game lead with three games left. The elimination number for Arizona is two. So one Phillies win and one D’Backs loss eliminates the D’Backs. Or two D’Backs losses, or two Phillies wins. It’s like 90% chance in favor of Philly, but it’s not over yet. The Phillies host the Rays and the D’Backs go to San Diego.

The playoffs expansion was supposed to make the final weekend more exciting, and it hasn’t done that this year. But it does keep plenty more teams alive into September.

Pitchers

They took it easy with Cam Schlittler, throwing him out there for 70 pithes. He went just three innings, so he was struggling. Easy call to pull him there and get him ready for game one next week.

Paul Skenes finished his season on a high note.

→ 6.33IP 3H 1ER 1R 8K 2BB

Interesting that they let him go 96 pitches, we’ve seen them really shut him down early in his final couple of starts in years past. He got his 200th strikeout of the season on his final pitch, so maybe that was the motivation. The “disaster” season for Skenes is 174.1 innings, a 3.98 ERA, 200 strikeouts, and 49 walks. He came out and said that he thought the WBC was a factor. Maybe that’s cope, who knows, but I don’t think there’s any reason to shy away from Skenes next year. It could end up being a major discount that proves to not be right.

I’ll stress one more time that the guy posted a 21.2% K-BB% this year and a 3.34 SIERA. That was the 12th-best SIERA in the league. I’d still draft as a top ten SP next year. We now know that he’s not hurt and he built up to almost 175 innings.

Tyler Mahle really sucked it up against the Reds.

→ 5.0IP 6H 5ER 5R 4K 2BB

Elly De La Cruz took his pound of flesh again, hitting his 30th homer of the year off of Mahle. Just six whiffs and a bad 41.8% Ball% from Mahle. He did not have it.

Andrew Painter - 6.0IP 5H 1ER 1R 8K 3BB

If the Phillies get into a game four, they might have to use Painter. His numbers since coming back from the minors where he re-invented himself:

→ 55.2 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 24.3% K%, 8.7% BB%, 0.97 HR/9

Much, much better. He’s had four very good starts in ten tries since coming back, and only three pretty bad ones. The mix from this stretch:

He’s gotten swinging strikes on the four-seamer, which wasn’t happening before. That’s a very positive thing to see. And the new changeup has been elite. That’s really impressive to add this changeup mid-season and then go out there with a 22.6% SwStr% and .167 xwOBA allowed on that bad boy. And then he has sweeper/slider/sinker/curve behind it. Lots of ceiling for Painter next year. No doubt in my mind that he’s earned himself a rotation spot for them next year.

One more magic show from Eduardo Rodriguez:

→ 6.0IP 9H 2ER 2R 3K 0BB

Nine hits, a 3:0 K:BB in Coors, but just two runs allowed. He has the 10th best LOB% for qualified starters at 80.2% and the .274 BABIP he’s allowed is 15th-lowest. His 8.2% HR/FB (FanGraphs) is fourth-lowest. Lots of luck for Eduardo, but he just won’t stop doing it.

Tanner Gordon - 3.33IP 12H 10ER 10R 1K 4BB

The Rockies are nothing if not consistent. Gordon recorded the eighth 10+ ER start of the year.

He made it longer than most ten-earny dudes do, getting into the fourth inning.

Most pitchers aren’t even allowed to give up ten earned runs. Typically the team will spare them the misery by pulling them early, but when you’re the 101-loss Rockies and it’s Tanner Gordon on the hill, you just let him die out there.

The Rockies have had nine pitchers make 5+ starts, and collectively they have a 6.22 ERA.

Mason Adams doesn’t even really count as he’s an opener in those spots. Their collection of pitchers with 10+ starts have a 6.23 ERA. Tanner Gordon is up to 6.69, but at least he did better than Michael Lorenzen and his 7.24 ERA before he got cut. It’s tough to get cut from the Rockies if you’re an SP. Lorenzen has that no hitter as a Phillie to hold onto, though. I think he probably should’ve switched back to being an outfielder after the Rockies signed him.

Bryan Woo - 5.33IP 7H 4ER 5R 8K 3BB

He finished his season with eight strikeouts, but seven hits and run runs allowed at home against the Angels. He’ll finish with a 4.01 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

He had the misfortune of making 57% of his starts on the road, where he posted a 5.22 ERA. Two completely different pitchers depending on where the game is. If you drafted him, you went through the ringer.

Quite a ride. What do you even do in the offseason if you’re Woo? There are things you can do if your lefty/righty splits are a mess. But how do you figure out how to pitch well when you don’t whatever advantage that home park gives you?

We’re seeing this wild thing going on with Sandy Alcantara, which I haven’t even mentioned yet. It looks like some sort of experiment they’re running. A couple of days after a start, pitchers will throw a bullpen to keep their arm going or whatever. I’m not sure why they do this stuff; not a pitching bro. But instead of that bullpen the last two times, the Marlins have Alcantara throwing in relief. He has two saves in the last ten days.

So he makes a regular start and then 2-3 days later comes out and throws a high-leverage inning if they need it. Maybe they would’ve thrown him an inning if it wasn’t high-leverage. That must be it, because they aren’t in the playoff race, so it’s not like they’re just desperately using him in a bullpen role to heighten their chances of winning the game.

And this could be revolutionary. I doubt throwing a bullpen is the same as throwing a real life inning, but if it is - the Marlins could be magically creating a high-leverage reliever without burning a roster spot.

Sandy is probably the only guy anybody would try this with. He’s a volume monster with a rubber arm. I reallly doubt they’d do this early in the year next year. Imagine how dumb they’d look if they do that and he gets hurt. You shouldn’t not do things because you might look dumb if they fail, that’s a logical fallacy of sorts, but it’s a potential roster hack I never even imagined. Shout out to them, it will be interesting to see if that happens at all again next year.

For fantasy leagues, that would bump a guy up an absolute ton in value. Imagine getting 6 scoreless innings and a win one day, and then another scoreless inning with a save in the same week? Pretty awesome.

Hitters

Lucas Spence is a DFS legend now. It only takes one game. He was $2K last night and hit THREE HOMERS. I had the guy a bunch at 11% ownership and couldn’t make a winning night out of it. Pretty sad. The guy is a AAAA player, but now has a .718 OPS in the Majors with, you guessed it, three homers. That park in Sacramento creates some wild times.

Kyle Teel will be a pretty appealing buy-low catcher next year. He hit his 5th homer of the year in his 37th game. It’s been a season ruined by injuries, which started in the WBC. So I don’t think you’ll be seeing Teel or Skenes on an WBC team again. He had a second injury after he finally got back from the first one, and he’s hit just .196/.333/.357 this year in 136 PAs. But five homers is a decent total. He’s striking out 36% of the time, which is not common. He was at 26% last year in his .786 OPS big league debut. I’d be buying low for dynasty stuff. Teel hit .295/.394/.492 in the minors last year before getting called up. Some strikeouts, but lots of walks. Good discipline with some power.

Zack Gelof has been one of the best hitters in the league in the second half. That’s another surprise that came from this year.

He’s now hitting .262/.326/.487 this year with 22 bombs and 16 steals in 108 games. So that’s a 30-25 guy, which is amazing. The key change is the strikeout rate, as is so often the case.

I have advice for struggling Major League hitters. What you should try to do is strike out less while not giving up your power swing. It’s simple! “Easy” is different than “simple”, but at least it’s simple in this case!

ZG has hit .284/.356/.642 in September. The Athletics have been pretty decent since mid-August:

Butler, Bolte, and Gelof have been fantasy studs, and they have seven guys above a .750 OPS. The fact that Alika Williams has a .757 OPS over any sample is shocking to me. I’ve seen the guy; he was on the Pirates. And it was always like “why is this guy in the Majors?” But the A’s have gotten some stuff from him to help out with their numerous injuries:

Average up 70 points, slug up like 130. He’s hit his first four career homers in this uniform.

Put minor league hitters in minor league ballparks and profit, that’s the lesson there.

Alika has only gotten reps because of Jacob Wilson and Joshua Kuroda-Grauer being hurt. JKG is back now. He went 0/4 last night but is hitting .379/.406/.530 in 19 games with a homer and a 14.5% K%. He might be better than Jacob Wilson. He certainly looks better for fantasy; I don’t know about real life because who cares about real life results for the Athletics anyways?

Nolan Arenado hit his 29th homer of the year. that’s after hitting 28 the last two seasons.

That is wild stuff. He’s one of the biggest projection-beaters in the game. The underlying numbers look poor, though:

He’s hitting .254 on a .230 xBA, his xwOBA is below .300, which is horrible. But a 24% Air Pull% and the best HR/FB since 2019 has faciliated a power breakout at age 35.

That’ll be one of the easier fades of 2027. He’s not hitting his fly balls hard at all (101.96 EV90 on them). I hope he gets to 30 homers, because 30 is way cooler than 29. And maybe some people will be fooled into buying him as a 12-team league starter. But that’s not for me. I’m way smarter than that, I know how to unscrew some screws in a dishwasher and remove a piece of plastic. I’m a man, I’m 40!

I cannot wait to post that clip on Facebook in four years when I turn 40 and have my mom see it and not get the joke.

Hector Rodriguez hit a homer. He was hot for a week or so there, and then struggled, but got back on the board last night with a homer, two runs, two RBI, and 23 fantasy points. But overall the numbers don’t look good:

→ .220/.264/.402, 27% K%, 5% BB%, 6 HR, 0 SB

He has some plate discipline improvements to make. He’s swinging 56% of the time and chasing at a clip of 42%. So pitchers aren’t having to throw him many strikes, and he has a 31% Ball% against. That stuff is fixable, and it usually improves as guys get past 100-200 MLB PAs. I’ll be buying next year.

George Lombard hit his 7th dinger. He’s hitting .243/.290/.426 with a 26% K%, 6% BB%, 8.3% Brl%, .244 xBA, .302 xwOBA.

It could be a lot worse. His EVs are mediocre, but not terrible. He’s hit for a 50% GB%, so that’s a bit high. But there’s no obvious huge issue for him. If he’s a good defender, he’ll do enough with the bat to keep a job. But is he a good defender? I have no idea. He is 21 years old, so there’s a lot of time left.

Zac Veen hit a homer! So it was a good night for some rookies.

Veen is also swing-happy at a 55% swing rate and 42% Chase%. His big issue is the strikeout with a 39.5% K%. 105.1 EV90, tons of speed. Lots of upside for him if he can make some contact gains (68% Zone-Contact%, which is horrible).

I’m primed and ready to do some team previews again. Those will start this fall, and they’re probably my favorite thing to write while doing all of this.

I have one more full regular season DFS slate to write up, so I’m going to put everything into it. Let’s finish big and clean some dishes this weekend!

Pitcher Reports

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. Cam Schlittler

2. Ian Seymour

3. Andrew Painter

4. Tyler Glasnow

5. Nick Pivetta

6. Kumar Rocker

7. Peter Lambert

8. Paul Skenes

9. Bryan Woo

10. Tyler Phillips

11. Eduardo Rodriguez

12. David Sandlin

13. Matthew Boyd

14. Mason Barnett

15. Grayson Rodriguez

16. Ranger Suarez

17. Zac Thornton

18. Tyler Mahle

19. Brady Singer

20. Tanner Gordon

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Tyler Glasnow (vs. SD): 27.24 Points

2. David Sandlin (vs. KC): 26.5 Points

3. Paul Skenes (vs. STL): 25.24 Points

4. Andrew Painter (vs. MIL): 22.7 Points

5. Nick Pivetta (vs. LAD): 21.51 Points

6. Joey Cantillo (vs. BOS): 21.45 Points

7. Matthew Boyd (vs. MIA): 19.55 Points

8. Kumar Rocker (vs. NYM): 18.25 Points

9. Mason Barnett (vs. HOU): 17.9 Points

10. Ranger Suarez (vs. CLE): 16.85 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Bryan Woo (SEA): 17 Whiffs (106 Pitches)

2. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)

3. Andrew Painter (PHI): 15 Whiffs (94 Pitches)

4. Nick Pivetta (SD): 15 Whiffs (87 Pitches)

5. Paul Skenes (PIT): 15 Whiffs (96 Pitches)

6. Cam Schlittler (NYY): 14 Whiffs (70 Pitches)

7. Grayson Rodriguez (LAA): 13 Whiffs (104 Pitches)

8. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)

9. Kumar Rocker (TEX): 11 Whiffs (78 Pitches)

10. Tyler Phillips (MIA): 11 Whiffs (73 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Cam Schlittler (NYY): 57.1 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%

2. Andrew Painter (PHI): 55.3 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%

3. Nick Pivetta (SD): 55.2 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%

4. Peter Lambert (HOU): 53.2 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%

5. Zac Thornton (NYM): 53.0 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%

6. David Sandlin (CWS): 51.8 Strike%, 30.6 Ball%

7. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 51.6 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%

8. Bryan Woo (SEA): 49.1 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%

9. Paul Skenes (PIT): 49.0 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%

10. Ian Seymour (TB): 48.3 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%

11. Matthew Boyd (CHC): 46.7 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%

12. Mason Barnett (OAK): 46.6 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%

13. Ranger Suarez (BOS): 46.5 Strike%, 38.4 Ball%

14. Tyler Phillips (MIA): 45.2 Strike%, 38.4 Ball%

15. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 44.6 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Ian Seymour: 58 Pitches, 15 Outs, 3.87 POUT

2. Matthew Boyd: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT

3. David Sandlin: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT

4. Tyler Glasnow: 91 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.79 POUT

5. Mason Barnett: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT

6. Paul Skenes: 96 Pitches, 19 Outs, 5.05 POUT

7. Eduardo Rodriguez: 92 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.11 POUT

8. Joey Cantillo: 80 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.33 POUT

9. Andrew Painter: 94 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.53 POUT

10. Kumar Rocker: 78 Pitches, 14 Outs, 5.57 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Brady Singer’s SI velo (33 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 89.8

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Andrew Painter’s CH usage (30.1%) up 18.2 points

Bryan Woo’s CU usage (14.2%) up 12.8 points

Cooper Hjerpe’s FF usage (66.2%) up 14.2 points

David Sandlin’s ST usage (31.8%) up 18.6 points

Kumar Rocker’s SL usage (43.2%) up 10.1 points

Kumar Rocker’s FF usage (31.1%) up 13.9 points

Peter Lambert’s SI usage (25.8%) up 15.9 points

Ranger Suarez’s FF usage (30.2%) up 11.7 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Tim Mayza 4-Seam Fastball: +26.5%

Robbie Ray Sinker: +25.3%

Bryan Hudson Sweeper: +21.7%

Bryan Hudson 4-Seam Fastball: -19.3%

Dustin May Sinker: +18.9%

David Sandlin Sweeper: +18.5%

Robbie Ray 4-Seam Fastball: -17.5%

Andrew Painter Changeup: +16.8%

Gabriel Hughes 4-Seam Fastball: -16.0%

Walbert Urena 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%

Trey Gibson 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%

Ryan Johnson Sweeper: +15.1%

Brayan Bello Cutter: -14.9%

Anthony Kay Sweeper: +14.6%

Tim Mayza Sinker: -14.5%

Jack Perkins 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%

Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%

Kumar Rocker 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%

Kyle Freeland Sinker: +13.6%

Bryan Woo Slider: -13.2%

Quinn Mathews Sinker: +13.0%

David Sandlin 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%

Jose Soriano 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%

Ryan Johnson Sinker: -12.6%

Grayson Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%

Trey Gibson Sinker: -12.5%

Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%

Anthony Kay 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%

Jeffrey Springs Slider: -12.3%

Dustin May 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%

Andre Pallante 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%

Richard Lovelady Sinker: +12.1%

Joe Ryan Sweeper: +12.1%

Shota Imanaga Split-Finger: +12.1%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Jacob Lopez - 44.0 RISP H%, 0.481 BABIP, 38.0 HR/FB, 191.0 Luck Score

Gabriel Hughes - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.4 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 188.0 Luck Score

Brady Singer - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.442 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 171.0 Luck Score

George Kirby - 35.0 RISP H%, 0.383 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 169.0 Luck Score

Hunter Gaddis - 30.0 RISP H%, 0.409 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 167.0 Luck Score

Tanner Gordon - 34.0 RISP H%, 0.596 BABIP, 17.0 HR/FB, 165.0 Luck Score

Sandy Alcantara - 31.0 RISP H%, 0.341 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 156.0 Luck Score

Reid Detmers - 23.0 RISP H%, 0.367 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 153.0 Luck Score

Mason Barnett - 36.0 RISP H%, 0.375 BABIP, 14.0 HR/FB, 152.0 Luck Score

Beau Brieske - 38.0 RISP H%, 0.3 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 151.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Dean Kremer - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.091 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 17.0 Luck Score

Emmet Sheehan - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.13 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 18.0 Luck Score

Joey Cantillo - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.129 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 18.0 Luck Score

Robert Gasser - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.182 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 22.0 Luck Score

Andrew Alvarez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.214 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 28.0 Luck Score

Yuki Matsui - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.222 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 31.0 Luck Score

Griffin Jax - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.227 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 32.0 Luck Score

Ryan Yarbrough - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.25 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 39.0 Luck Score

Cristian Javier - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.216 BABIP, 6.0 HR/FB, 40.0 Luck Score

Blade Tidwell - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.154 BABIP, 11.0 HR/FB, 41.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gavin Williams - 71 TBF, 37.5% CSW%

Tyler Glasnow - 96 TBF, 36.4% CSW%

Jared Jones - 90 TBF, 35.8% CSW%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.9% CSW%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 33.5% CSW%

Patrick Sandoval - 72 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 74 TBF, 32.7% CSW%

Trevor Rogers - 79 TBF, 32.6% CSW%

Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 32.5% CSW%

Cam Schlittler - 84 TBF, 32.4% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jared Jones - 90 TBF, 38.9% K%

Gavin Williams - 71 TBF, 38.0% K%

Tyler Glasnow - 96 TBF, 37.5% K%

Jackson Jobe - 68 TBF, 35.3% K%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%

Jacob deGrom - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%

Cam Schlittler - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 32.9% K%

Reid Detmers - 67 TBF, 32.8% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jared Jones - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 31.8% K-BB%

Reid Detmers - 67 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%

Jackson Jobe - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%

Gavin Williams - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%

Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%

Jacob deGrom - 84 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%

Parker Messick - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Andre Pallante - 90 TBF, 67.6% GB%

Framber Valdez - 94 TBF, 65.6% GB%

Walbert Urena - 99 TBF, 64.4% GB%

Jose Soriano - 75 TBF, 63.0% GB%

Clay Holmes - 73 TBF, 62.5% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 60.5% GB%

Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 57.8% GB%

David Peterson - 65 TBF, 57.5% GB%

Tyler Phillips - 67 TBF, 57.4% GB%

Cristopher Sanchez - 104 TBF, 55.7% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Brayan Bello - 56 TBF, 35.7 K%, 3.6 BB%, 60.6% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.8 K%, 3.0 BB%, 60.5% GB%

Cade Smith - 42 TBF, 50.0 K%, 4.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%

Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 31.9 K%, 4.2 BB%, 44.2% GB%

Jacob Misiorowski - 54 TBF, 37.0 K%, 5.6 BB%, 48.4% GB%

Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 57.8% GB%

Kyle Leahy - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.9 BB%, 44.1% GB%

Logan Gilbert - 98 TBF, 31.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 46.6% GB%

Logan Webb - 47 TBF, 31.9 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.7% GB%

Parker Messick - 94 TBF, 31.9 K%, 5.3 BB%, 43.9% GB%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.1 BB%, 45.5% GB%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 5.4 BB%, 54.2% GB%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 34.7 K%, 6.1 BB%, 43.1% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Carlos Rodon - +2.7% CSW%, -1.5 BB%

Peter Lambert - +4.4% CSW%, -5.9 BB%

Trevor Rogers - +4.8% CSW%, -4.8 BB%

Payton Tolle - +4.5% CSW%, -2.9 BB%

Patrick Sandoval - +4.2% CSW%, -1.6 BB%

Ryan Johnson - +3.3% CSW%, -7.5 BB%

Andre Pallante - +2.6% CSW%, -2.8 BB%

Jared Jones - +2.3% CSW%, -3.3 BB%

Jackson Jobe - +4.4% CSW%, -4.4 BB%

Kevin Gausman - +3.8% CSW%, -2.1 BB%

Cade Cavalli - +4.1% CSW%, -3.8 BB%

Sean Manaea - +2.7% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Bubba Chandler - +3.3% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

Christian Scott - +2.3% CSW%, -4.0 BB%

Dustin May - +2.6% CSW%, -2.0 BB%

Emmet Sheehan - +2.2% CSW%, -2.1 BB%

Gabriel Hughes - +2.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

DL Hall - +4.1% CSW%, -1.9 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

Drake Baldwin (ATL) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Hector Rodriguez (CIN) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

James McCann (ARI) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Lucas Spence (HOU) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 3 HR

Michael Massey (KC) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 3 Barrels, 0 HR

Zack Gelof (OAK) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Hardest Hit Balls

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.8mph - double

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) - 111.5mph - None

Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 111.3mph - single

Alec Burleson (STL) - 110.9mph - field_out

Mike Trout (LAA) - 110.5mph - field_out

Jackson Merrill (SD) - 110.4mph - double

Michael Harris II (ATL) - 110.3mph - double

George Lombard Jr. (NYY) - 110.2mph - home_run

Salvador Perez (KC) - 110.1mph - home_run

George Lombard Jr. (NYY) - 110.1mph - double

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Wilyer Abreu - 66 PA, 0.267 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff

Ezequiel Duran - 74 PA, 0.191 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff

Salvador Perez - 66 PA, 0.315 wOBA, 0.394 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff

Bo Bichette - 88 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.358 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff

J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 0.201 wOBA, 0.273 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff

Jordan Walker - 69 PA, 0.166 wOBA, 0.238 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff

John Peck - 63 PA, 0.227 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff

Freddie Freeman - 66 PA, 0.207 wOBA, 0.278 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff

Turner Hill - 62 PA, 0.207 wOBA, 0.274 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff

Bryson Stott - 70 PA, 0.272 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff

Bottom 10

Nolan Arenado - 75 PA, 0.523 wOBA, 0.384 xwOBA, -0.139 Diff

Travis Bazzana - 65 PA, 0.444 wOBA, 0.331 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff

Jonathan Aranda - 65 PA, 0.41 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff

Gabriel Moreno - 81 PA, 0.459 wOBA, 0.351 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff

Yainer Diaz - 65 PA, 0.442 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff

Spencer Torkelson - 70 PA, 0.426 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff

Brice Turang - 75 PA, 0.498 wOBA, 0.405 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff

Randy Arozarena - 79 PA, 0.445 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff

Isaac Paredes - 77 PA, 0.428 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff

Cole Carrigg - 81 PA, 0.387 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Ronald Acuna Jr.: 29.0 PA, +0.18 xwOBA OE

Brandon Lowe: 39.0 PA, +0.161 xwOBA OE

Pete Alonso: 33.0 PA, +0.145 xwOBA OE

Coby Mayo: 33.0 PA, +0.143 xwOBA OE

Drake Baldwin: 38.0 PA, +0.142 xwOBA OE

Zack Gelof: 37.0 PA, +0.13 xwOBA OE

Yordan Alvarez: 38.0 PA, +0.121 xwOBA OE

Walker Jenkins: 28.0 PA, +0.102 xwOBA OE

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 42.0 PA, +0.099 xwOBA OE

Josue De Paula: 28.0 PA, +0.098 xwOBA OE

Yainer Diaz: 34.0 PA, +0.095 xwOBA OE

Mike Trout: 40.0 PA, +0.092 xwOBA OE

Kevin McGonigle: 40.0 PA, +0.085 xwOBA OE

Rafael Flores: 28.0 PA, +0.079 xwOBA OE

Munetaka Murakami: 39.0 PA, +0.079 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Luis Garcia Jr.: 29.0 PA, -0.221 xwOBA OE

Carter Jensen: 35.0 PA, -0.171 xwOBA OE

Matt McLain: 31.0 PA, -0.157 xwOBA OE

Colson Montgomery: 29.0 PA, -0.156 xwOBA OE

Jeff McNeil: 32.0 PA, -0.151 xwOBA OE

Jonny DeLuca: 32.0 PA, -0.145 xwOBA OE

Lars Nootbaar: 30.0 PA, -0.144 xwOBA OE

Adley Rutschman: 32.0 PA, -0.136 xwOBA OE

Ernie Clement: 28.0 PA, -0.134 xwOBA OE

Ozzie Albies: 33.0 PA, -0.134 xwOBA OE

Christian Koss: 29.0 PA, -0.125 xwOBA OE

Kody Clemens: 32.0 PA, -0.123 xwOBA OE

Travis Bazzana: 29.0 PA, -0.122 xwOBA OE

Leonardo Bernal: 34.0 PA, -0.118 xwOBA OE

Pedro Ramirez: 26.0 PA, -0.115 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Elly De La Cruz - 80 PA, 46 BIP, 15 Brls, 32.6 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 78 PA, 46 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.7 Brl%

Zack Gelof - 75 PA, 54 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.4 Brl%

Austin Riley - 68 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Jake Bauers - 58 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Wyatt Langford - 74 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 64 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%

Riley Greene - 77 PA, 53 BIP, 10 Brls, 18.9 Brl%

Corbin Carroll - 64 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%

Coby Mayo - 72 PA, 49 BIP, 9 Brls, 18.4 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Riley Greene - 77 PA, 0.469 xwOBA

Elly De La Cruz - 80 PA, 0.467 xwOBA

Brett Baty - 47 PA, 0.464 xwOBA

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 77 PA, 0.436 xwOBA

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 86 PA, 0.435 xwOBA

Coby Mayo - 72 PA, 0.434 xwOBA

Pete Alonso - 78 PA, 0.432 xwOBA

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 84 PA, 0.429 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 81 PA, 0.427 xwOBA

Ben Rice - 81 PA, 0.421 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 79 PA, 121 Swings, 98.3 Cont%

Nathan Lukes - 64 PA, 125 Swings, 92.8 Cont%

Nico Hoerner - 76 PA, 132 Swings, 92.4 Cont%

Ernie Clement - 63 PA, 96 Swings, 91.7 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 84 PA, 123 Swings, 91.1 Cont%

Geraldo Perdomo - 79 PA, 120 Swings, 90.0 Cont%

Alejandro Kirk - 57 PA, 99 Swings, 89.9 Cont%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 67 PA, 127 Swings, 89.8 Cont%

Sam Antonacci - 64 PA, 107 Swings, 89.7 Cont%

Kyle Tucker - 72 PA, 121 Swings, 88.4 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Cooper Pratt - 6 Attempts (5 steals)

Jonah Cox - 6 Attempts (5 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Richie Palacios - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Samad Taylor - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Zach Neto - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Josh Naylor - 4 Attempts (2 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Cole Carrigg - 4 Attempts (2 steals)

Jose Ramirez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Otto Lopez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jonah Cox - 14 Attempts (11 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 11 Attempts (10 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 11 Attempts (11 steals)

Oneil Cruz - 10 Attempts (7 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 9 Attempts (7 steals)

Miguel Vargas - 9 Attempts (9 steals)

Cooper Pratt - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 8 Attempts (8 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 8 Attempts (8 steals)

Otto Lopez - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Richie Palacios - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Jorge Mateo - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Zack Gelof - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Samad Taylor - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Brett Baty - 47 PA, 12.8 K%, 15.2 Brl%

Josh Jung - 47 PA, 19.1 K%, 14.3 Brl%

Kyle Tucker - 72 PA, 9.7 K%, 14.3 Brl%

Riley Greene - 77 PA, 19.5 K%, 18.9 Brl%

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 77 PA, 14.3 K%, 16.7 Brl%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 67 PA, 11.9 K%, 16.7 Brl%

Zack Gelof - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 20.4 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Coby Mayo - 104 PA, +0.125 xwOBA

Elly De La Cruz - 115 PA, +0.107 xwOBA

Zack Gelof - 115 PA, +0.098 xwOBA

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 126 PA, +0.096 xwOBA

Carter Jensen - 111 PA, +0.083 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 115 PA, +0.078 xwOBA

Riley Greene - 87 PA, +0.075 xwOBA

Thomas Saggese - 87 PA, +0.071 xwOBA

Teoscar Hernandez - 110 PA, +0.07 xwOBA

Michael Massey - 80 PA, +0.069 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

Elly De La Cruz - 115 PA, +15.9 Brl%

Daylen Lile - 97 PA, +10.5 Brl%

Zack Gelof - 115 PA, +8.6 Brl%

Tim Tawa - 97 PA, +6.8 Brl%

Jake Burger - 109 PA, +6.5 Brl%

Coby Mayo - 104 PA, +5.8 Brl%

Lawrence Butler - 117 PA, +5.8 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 115 PA, +5.5 Brl%

Alex Bregman - 102 PA, +5.4 Brl%

Carter Jensen - 111 PA, +5.1 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Kyle Tucker - 108 PA, +9.2 Cont%

Ketel Marte - 89 PA, +9.1 Cont%

Connor Norby - 102 PA, +7.3 Cont%

Hunter Goodman - 101 PA, +7.0 Cont%

T.J. Rumfield - 115 PA, +6.9 Cont%

Christian Moore - 101 PA, +6.7 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 110 PA, +6.6 Cont%

Coby Mayo - 104 PA, +6.3 Cont%

Nathan Church - 103 PA, +6.1 Cont%

Seiya Suzuki - 122 PA, +6.1 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Marcus Semien - 106 PA, -12.7 K%

Nathan Church - 103 PA, -10.6 K%

Zack Gelof - 115 PA, -9.4 K%

Braden Montgomery - 97 PA, -8.9 K%

Coby Mayo - 104 PA, -8.7 K%

Hunter Goodman - 101 PA, -8.5 K%

Kazuma Okamoto - 105 PA, -8.3 K%

Wade Meckler - 97 PA, -8.0 K%

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 112 PA, -7.4 K%

Alex Bregman - 102 PA, -7.3 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Zach Neto: +2.5

Eugenio Suarez: +2.2

Alec Bohm: +2.05

Geraldo Perdomo: +1.85

Jake McCarthy: +1.8

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

Oneil Cruz: -3.95

Carson Benge: -2.85

Jac Caglianone: -2.7

Wyatt Langford: -2.6

Ronald Acuna Jr.: -2.6

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Ben Rice - 0.42 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 80.2% Contact%, 18.5% Chase%, 16.9% K%

Coby Mayo - 0.431 xwOBA, 17.1% Brl%, 78.7% Contact%, 24.8% Chase%, 21.6% K%

Kyle Tucker - 0.388 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 90.2% Contact%, 20.4% Chase%, 7.8% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Colson Montgomery - 40.2% Whiff%, 76.5% Weak%, 0.953 Cold Rating

Victor Caratini - 34.0% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.923 Cold Rating

Ryan Jeffers - 32.1% Whiff%, 81.0% Weak%, 0.916 Cold Rating

Jake Burger - 31.5% Whiff%, 79.3% Weak%, 0.904 Cold Rating

Christian Moore - 33.0% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.87 Cold Rating

Brandon Nimmo - 39.4% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.853 Cold Rating

Matt McLain - 31.5% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.846 Cold Rating

Tommy Edman - 28.6% Whiff%, 79.4% Weak%, 0.838 Cold Rating

Teoscar Hernandez - 35.3% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.836 Cold Rating

Carter Jensen - 35.2% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.834 Cold Rating

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Game Data

1. Houston in Sacramento vs. Mason Barnett

2. Braves at home vs. Brady Singer

3. Dodgers at home vs. Nick Pivetta

Those are the spots. The Dodgers have Ohtani back, Houston plays in that cheat code park, and Brady Singer has like a 137.5 ERA this month.

Pitchers

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Our first ugly TNF game of the season. It’s the hapless Falcons going into Green Bay. I was surprised to see this one at just a 4.5-point spread.

But there’s a new QB under center for the Falcons as they return their preferred starter Michael Penix Jr. after playing Cooper Rush (-0.64 EPA) and Jack Strand (-0.76 EPA).

So that’s an upgrade and a welcome sign for you Bijan Robinson and Drake London owners. But don’t get your hopes up too high. Penix last year posted a 7.2 YPA with a 9:3 TD:INT and a +0.02 EPA in nine games. He’s quite possibly one of the worst starting QBs in the league, but that would still be a massive step up from what they got in the first couple of weeks.

Falcons Side

It’s pretty tough to judge an offense on two games played by those QBs. They’ve run it 43% of the time despite trailing for most all of their two games. They’re at a -8% PROE, so even accounting for that scoreboard, they haven’t wanted to throw the ball. And why would they, when they have Rush/Strand at QB and Bijan Robinson at running back?

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

All right, boys and girls, they have completely sucked the value out of PCA now for stolen bases. After he didn’t get it last night, not work Chasey, not going to make a ton of money on it. It’s just something the bucks are just not willing to put at risk. Essentially, if you hit it on the right day, you’re profitable. If you’re not, you’re going to have a tough time. Today we got a couple K prop spots I like. That’s about it. Being really careful here the last few days.

Tyler Mahle gets to face the Reds, the number one-rated team versus right-handed pitching. Brian Woo gets to face the Angels, the number two-rated K-rated team versus right-handed pitching. In his last 10 starts, Mahle has been great. He’s putting up a 25% WHIP percentage and a 21% put-away rate. Woo is putting up a 31% whiff rate, 28% K rate, and 23% put-away rate for his right-hand bats. It's less than 10 outings, but we're going to parlay it. I don't like the value on either standalone, but together we're almost doubling our units, and that's going to be our spot for today.

Mahle 6+K and Woo 7+k +192 1u DK

Again, last few days of the season here. I’m not going to push the card on value when there’s too much at risk if we do.

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We will have some smaller slates this year as bye weeks begin and we get a slew of international games. But for this week, we have a 12-gamer, which is as big as it gets.

Top Implied Totals

• Chiefs (vs. MIA): 29

• Bills (vs. LAC): 28.75

• 49ers (vs. ARI): 28

• Ravens (vs. DAL): 27.75

• Lions (vs. NYJ): 47.5

Lots of studs on the board this week. I expect we’ll have a lot of plays we want to jam in. Plus, we have a few key injuries to react to along the way.

So much of NFL DFS is getting the game environment right. There’s a lot of luck in that; it’s tough to know what team is going to run 80 plays and throw it 50 times, but we need to make our plays based on the best guesses there. I want to spend a little more time on game environment this week since we have two games’ worth of data on each team.

Shootout Potential

• BAL at DAL: 52.5 O/U, BAL -3

• BUF at LAC: 50.5 O/U, BUF -7

• DET vs. NYJ: 50.5, DET -6.5

Clear top three this week. At least four very good offenses here (BAL/DAL/BUF/DET), and LAC/NYJ have some offensive potential as well. Those are also mostly concentrated offenses as well, so we’ll want to lean on those game environments.

Pass Rates

The pass-heaviest teams in the league so far adjusted for situation:

1. Cowboys

2. Bills

3. Saints

4. 49ers

5. Steelers

6. Chiefs

7. Panthers

8. Cardinals

9. Bengals

10. Patriots

The lowest:

1. Falcons

2. Chargers

3. Dolphins

4. Seahawks

5. Colts

6. Titans

7. Eagles

8. Vikings

9. Giants

10. Bears

We’ll keep that in mind as we go, but let’s start it up.

Chargers at Bills

We go right into one of our big games. The Chargers are sitting at 0-2 and this brutal stretch of schedule begins in Buffalo. Maybe they’ll just dud again and kill this game environment, but with Herbert + Hampton + McConkey, you like their chances of pushing Josh Allen a little bit.

The Bills have thrown it 63% of the time and +7.6% over expectation. Josh Allen looks as good as ever, so they’re going to score points.

The Chargers offense has been bad. -0.23 EPA per play (awful), -15% PROE% (awful), 4.7 yards per play (awful).

So leaning into this game heavily is a bet on the Chargers improving in this spot. But the Bills defense is far from elite, and they’re below average at yards per play allowed so far.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,000) has paid off his price this year. He’s gone nuts, I don’t need to tell you that. He has more red zone carries (6) than James Cook (5), and he’s run in three touchdowns already. Plus 582 passing yards with a 5:0 TD:INT ratio and 9.4 yards per attempt.

The problem is that there will inevitably be some very nice QB plays $2000+ less than him. And $2000 gets you a massive upgrade at RB or WR. I never end up playing a QB this expensive in cash, unless the game environment is absolutely insane. If this was Bills vs. Chiefs or Bills vs. Lions (again), then it would be more considerable. This is the first game I’m writing, but I’m almost sure I won’t have Josh Allen in final consideration for my single lineup.

Tourney note: You can play Allen by himself since he runs for so many TDs. But if he goes for 40+, usually he’s taking a pass catcher with him.

Justin Herbert ($5,800) is getting cheaper, but for good reason. He has gone 32/54 for 401 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and a -0.1 EPA. He’s been really bad. You can game stack this one, but wouldn’t that put Josh Allen as your QB? Do the Bills ever play in a 60+ point game where Allen doesn’t account for 4+ touchdowns?

Running Backs

The good news for James Cook ($6,400) is that he’s not splitting with any other running back. The other RBs have two carries in two games. The reason it’s tough to play Cook is because of the touchdowns. Allen has four rushing scores, Cook has one. He still has 5.6 yards per carry and 192 yards in two games, but he’s gone just 4-16-0 on seven targets in two games, so the floor is pretty low if the touchdowns go to Allen again. He won’t be in consideration for cash.

Tourney thought: Maybe you can play Herbert + Cook in a game stack, that would be the angle that Cook ends up with the rushing scores in this one, limiting Allen’s score.

On the Chargers side, Omarion Hampton ($6,800) has 35 carries; backup Keaton Mitchell has just nine. So he’s the clear RB1, no competition there. However, just two targets for two catches and 21 receiving yards. The Chargers playing from behind would probably be bad for Hampton. Mitchell has run 19 routes this year to Hampton’s 18, so he’s probably their preferred catch-up mode RB. I’m not 100% sure about that, but it’s enough of a worry to not consider Hampton at $6,800 as a touchdown underdog.

Pass Catchers

So it sounds like DJ Moore ($5,800) will be ready to go for this one, but we won’t know for sure until at least Friday. That makes quite a bit of difference. And we have a less-clear picture of what the Bills will do now since 25% of their season has been played without Moore now. We do know that he’s third on the team in target per route run:

1. Kincaid 30.4%

2. Shakir 29.3%

3. Moore 24.2%

4. Cook 20%

5. Palmer 19.2%

6. Coleman 16.3%

7. Knox 10.7%

Bills pass catchers are always tough to play because of the way they play in rushing for a bunch of touchdowns and spreading the passes around.

If there’s a play, it’s certainly Dalton Kincaid ($5,500), but the price has exploded upward.

He is a reasonable stack pairing with Allen, but $5,500 for him with DJ Moore probably returning is pretty tough to get to. I’ll put him on the list because he has truly played like a $6,000 tight end and he’s not there yet, but it’s a little too risky and buy-highish for me to do.

The Chargers pass catchers haven’t gotten there yet because of this offenses bad play. Ladd McConkey ($5,900) is the key to this pass game, it seems. He was truly questionable last week but did play and ran as many routes as anybody else (Johnston ran 23, McConkey 21). If he was limited last week, it was in performance, not snaps or routes. He’s the guy. None of the other options are good enough to matter to us. McConkey’s 26.3% TPRR leads the team, and he’s at a decent 3.1 YPRR even while probably not playing at full strength last week.

Provided that McConkey is a full go, I think he’s in play. The Chargers will have to play fast and throw the ball to keep pace with the scoring of the Bills, and McConkey is how they’re going to do that. And the Bills’ defense isn’t great.

Recap

It’s a key game on the slate. You can use it for several iterations of tourney builds. But the cash focus for me is mostly coming down to Ladd McConkey ($5,900). That’s the best play in my view. Not that you can’t play Allen or Kincaid; I just don’t really like their prices.

Panthers at Browns

Who had Bryce Young ($5,300) being second in the league in passing yards and Deshaun Watson ($4,700) being an above-average QB by EPA after two weeks?

This is probably a spot to not completely rewrite our priors. We thought these QBs were trash two weeks ago; should two games change that?

The O/U being at 42.5 shows you that the markets don’t think this is going to be high-scoring affair. That 109 shootout score is high, that comes from yards per play and yards per play allowed from each team; but it’s just this year, which is a two-game sample. So I wouldn’t read much into the that 109.

Both offenses have some pieces. The Browns have a few rookie receivers that have made some big plays, and Bryce Young is still pretty early on in his career with two good receivers on his side as well.

The biggest data point for this one is that the Panthers have been very pass-happy early on, even despite having played with a lead for most of this season so far. They’re at a 64% pass rate and in the top ten in the league (top five in some models I’ve seen) in PROE. So they believe in Young and apparently want to chuck it. That could help this game environment. It would seem like a pretty solid OVER 42.5 bet to me, I’ll be interested to see if it moves up (I’m writing this on Tuesday morning).

Quarterbacks

So we have an interesting QB play with Bryce Young ($5,600). The price is coming up after his two big games, but it’s still cheap:

Can the Browns score enough to keep Young throwing late? Will the Panthers just throw it anyways? It’s not as though the Panthers are expected to win this game big, so it seems like a pretty reasonable spot to play Young to me. BUT, we wouldn’t have even thought twice about him if this were the first game of the year. I don’t want to bet on guys I thought were bad two weeks ago just because of two games. But we’ll see what the QB slate looks like and what the projections say later. I’m putting him on the list.

Deshaun Watson ($4,700) is super duper cheap, but you’d have to have some real stones to try that out. He threw for 238 yard and two touchdowns on 30 attempts against the Bucs. But we’re not really going here.

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard ($6,100) has 22 of the 39 RB carries this year, he has 5-49-2 through the air (on just five targets in two game), and he’s played 66% of the snaps with the only rushing touchdown. So he seems like the guy there. This isn’t a bad matchup with the Browns, but the price has come up $600 since the beginning of the season:

He’s averaged 4.6 yards per carry so far, but I doubt that’s going to stick after just a 3.8 average last year. He’s played his way into an RB2 role in fantasy leagues, but there’s not enough in a 42.5-point total for me to get to in DFS.

Quinshon Judkins ($5,500) has 24 carries in two games. The Browns just haven’t had the ball a ton and haven’t run many plays. He’s averaged 2.3 yards per carry and has a 7-44-0 line through the air. He’s a fine player, and he’ll eventually score some touchdowns, but he’s a long ways from good enough to consider in this game.

Pass Catchers

The wide receivers are the most interesting in this game. Browns duo:

• Concepcion: 45 routes, 24% TPRR, 1.6 YPRR, 11 TGT, 10-71-0, 6.8 ADoT

• Boston: 54 routes, 20% TPRR, 2.9 YPRR< 11 TGT, 7-152-2, 15.8 ADoT

So KC Concepcion ($4,300) has the possession role and Denzel Boston ($4,500) is the deep ball guy. Boston’s converted two of those long ball sinto touchdowns so far. But they both rely on Deshaun Watson getting the offense moving, so the floor is very low. Probably too low to consider.

Tourney thought: With the Panthers throwing a ton and Watson showing some signs of life last week, this could be a pretty sneaky game to target. I’d probably go Young to Coker/Tet and come back with Boston. You could probably play Hubbard or Judkins in there too.

The Panthers side:

• McMillan: 74 routes, 23% TPRR, 2.4 YPRR, 18 TGT, 10-176-0, 13.9 ADoT

• Coker: 68 routes, 27% TPRR, 3.0 YPRR, 18 TGT, 16-204-2, 9.6 AdoT

These guys have 56% of the targets together, so you know where the ball goes. They’re both good, and they could both smash at their season ADP if Young is truly good.

The prices are McMillan ($6,000) and Coker ($5,500). They both look pretty decent at those prices. Are they optimal though in this game environment? I doubt it. It’s putting too much trust in Bryce Young and the Browns to not slow this game to a total hault.

Coker is $500 cheaper, so I’ll pick him and put him on the list, but I really really doubt I play any of the guy even if I make a few lineups.

Recap

It’s a much more interesting game for fantasy than we thought it was going to be a couple of weeks ago. It would be my pick for “unowned game stack” probably, but for cash I’m pretty sure it’s hands-off.

I’ve put Bryce Young and Jalen Coker on the list.

Bengals at Steelers

The Steelers offense looks like a huge problem, and that matters even for the team playing them. We want fast-paced high-scoring games for DFS, and I don’t think the Steelers can deliver that. They’ve averaged 3.7 yards per play, a ridiculously bad number. This will probably be the worst defense they’ve faced, so they’ll likely do a lot better than 3.7 this week, but it makes it really tough to play anybody from that side or the other.

The Bengals are not going to be in a 42.5-point total very often, so it wouldn’t seem like a great spot to use their expensive offense in.

Quarterbacks

An incredibly easy fade on Aaron Rodgers ($5,000). Maybe an even easier fade on Joe Burrow ($6,600) in the game against a Steelers defense that can still get the job done.

Burrow → Chase & Higgins can come through in any matchup. Chase is usually in play, and maybe he’ll deserve a spot on the list this week, but these guys are priced up, and with so many great options this week I don’t think we want to play an expensive guy in a bad game environment.

Running Backs

40 xFP for Chase Brown ($6,600) so far. 36-136-1 on the ground, 8-24-0 on 11 targets through the air. The workload is great, but this matchup is not. It’s possible he grabs 5 passes and scores a touchdown, but like I said above, it’s just not the right spot to use the Bengals.

The Steelers run game has been as bad as it gets.

• Warren: 21-89-0, 7-61-0 on 10 targets

• Dowdle: 15-37-0, 4-28-0 on 7 targets

So they’re under four yards per carry as a team. It’s a better spot this week, and we have a Q tag on Rico Dowdle. If he’s out (doesn’t seem likely), Jaylen Warren ($5,700) would at least get a projection boost. Enough to play him in cash? Almost surely not, but we’ll revisit that in the less-than-likely case that Dowdle does miss this game.

Pass Catchers

Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100) and Tee Higgins ($6,100) are usually in play. Not a priority spot for them this week, but one of them is pretty likely to have a solid game.

→ Chase: 13 targets, 9-87-2, 19% TPRR, 1.2 YPRR
→ Higgins: 16 targets, 8-154-0, 29% TPRR, 2.8 YPRR

Chase has the touchdowns, but Higgins has been the better receiver so far. With Higgins being $2,000 less, we should be kinda interested in that. It’s probably not enough in this game, but it’s important to point out that the usage is always pretty tight between these guys when they’re both healthy.

I guess we shouldn’t shrug off that Ja’Marr Chase went for 161 yards against the Steelers in week seven last year. That was the big Joe Flacco game, and one of Aaron Rodgers’ best games. So we’ve seen these teams shootout recently, but that’s a one-game thing.

DK Metcalf ($5,400) has 32 xFP this season. He’s seen 19 targets in two games, turning that into a pathetic 8-67-0 line on a 42% catch rate. I know that Rodgers is bad, and the Steelers haven’t been able to run the ball, but I can’t not call it a buy-low. The role is too good, and he’s still such a physical freak of nature. The huge game is going to happen, and this is the team that Rodgers had his best game against last year. I played him in cash last week, which was freaking DUMB; I’m not going to do cash again on Metcalf (I don’t think..), but tourneys - YES.

Tourney thought: You can go Burrow → Chase & Higgins and come back with DK Metcalf. It’s low-owned with plenty of ceiling. The angle would be that the Steelers figure something out and the Bengals offense has one of their best performances.

Recap

I’ll come back to the projections on the Bengals just to see, but the only guy I can see maybe considering would be Tee Higgins ($6,100). Chase, Burrow, Brown - they could all smash, but they’re just too expensive to use in a bad game environment. There will be more weeks ahead where we can play some Bengals.

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Pitcher Reports

Yesterdays Pitcher Debuts

Josh Hendrickson (HOU): 2.0IP, 2H, 1ER, 3SO, 0BB

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. Chris Sale

2. Mason Adams

3. Kevin Gausman

4. Foster Griffin

5. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

6. Connor Prielipp

7. Cody Bradford

8. George Kirby

9. Mason Englert

10. Ryan Gusto

11. Matthew Liberatore

12. Walbert Urena

13. Aaron Nola

14. Framber Valdez

15. Jeffrey Springs

16. CJ Van Eyk

17. Merrill Kelly

18. Max Scherzer

19. Trey Gibson

20. Andrew Abbott

21. Gerrit Cole

22. Nolan McLean

23. Cesar Perdomo

24. Logan Henderson

25. Sonny Gray

26. Chris Bassitt

27. Robbie Ray

28. Ethan Pecko

29. Seth Lugo

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Trey Gibson (vs. TOR): 30.01 Points

2. Chris Sale (vs. CIN): 28.36 Points

3. Mason Adams (vs. ARI): 26.5 Points

4. Gerrit Cole (vs. TB): 25.16 Points

5. Nolan McLean (vs. TEX): 23.35 Points

6. Matthew Liberatore (vs. PIT): 23.16 Points

7. Sonny Gray (vs. CLE): 20.5 Points

8. Andrew Abbott (vs. ATL): 19.55 Points

9. Foster Griffin (vs. BOS): 19.5 Points

10. Kevin Gausman (vs. MIA): 18.56 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Chris Sale (ATL): 23 Whiffs (97 Pitches)

2. Kevin Gausman (CHC): 21 Whiffs (101 Pitches)

3. Mason Adams (COL): 15 Whiffs (80 Pitches)

4. George Kirby (SEA): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)

5. Foster Griffin (CLE): 12 Whiffs (83 Pitches)

6. Mason Englert (TB): 12 Whiffs (86 Pitches)

7. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 12 Whiffs (88 Pitches)

8. Framber Valdez (DET): 11 Whiffs (87 Pitches)

9. Aaron Nola (PHI): 11 Whiffs (88 Pitches)

10. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 11 Whiffs (100 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Chris Sale (ATL): 58.8 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%

2. Mason Adams (COL): 55.0 Strike%, 26.2 Ball%

3. Trey Gibson (BAL): 54.3 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%

4. Foster Griffin (CLE): 53.0 Strike%, 21.7 Ball%

5. Kevin Gausman (CHC): 52.5 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%

6. Max Scherzer (TOR): 51.6 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%

7. Ryan Gusto (MIA): 50.6 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%

8. Mason Englert (TB): 50.0 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%

9. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 49.5 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%

10. Connor Prielipp (MIN): 49.4 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%

11. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 48.9 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%

12. Aaron Nola (PHI): 48.9 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%

13. Robbie Ray (SD): 48.8 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%

14. Cody Bradford (TEX): 48.5 Strike%, 26.5 Ball%

15. George Kirby (SEA): 47.9 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Nolan McLean: 82 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.9 POUT

2. Sonny Gray: 77 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.28 POUT

3. Mason Adams: 80 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.44 POUT

4. Trey Gibson: 92 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.6 POUT

5. Foster Griffin: 83 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.61 POUT

6. Matthew Liberatore: 81 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.76 POUT

7. Connor Prielipp: 77 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.81 POUT

8. Cesar Perdomo: 77 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.81 POUT

9. Merrill Kelly: 78 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.88 POUT

10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Chris Sale’s FF velo (52 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 97.7

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Connor Prielipp’s CU usage (35.1%) up 17.0 points

Erick Fedde’s ST usage (46.9%) up 14.7 points

Foster Griffin’s ST usage (34.9%) up 17.4 points

George Kirby’s ST usage (29.2%) up 10.4 points

Jeffrey Springs’s FC usage (16.7%) up 12.0 points

Khristian Curtis’s FF usage (45.1%) up 10.1 points

Mason Englert’s CU usage (26.7%) up 12.7 points

Merrill Kelly’s FC usage (37.2%) up 19.8 points

Nolan McLean’s SI usage (48.8%) up 15.3 points

Robbie Ray’s SI usage (44.0%) up 37.0 points

Trey Gibson’s FF usage (34.8%) up 12.9 points

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s SI usage (22.7%) up 12.5 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Tim Mayza 4-Seam Fastball: +26.5%

Robbie Ray Sinker: +25.3%

Bryan Hudson Sweeper: +21.7%

Bryan Hudson 4-Seam Fastball: -19.3%

Dustin May Sinker: +18.9%

Robbie Ray 4-Seam Fastball: -17.5%

Gabriel Hughes 4-Seam Fastball: -16.0%

Walbert Urena 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%

Trey Gibson 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%

Ryan Johnson Sweeper: +15.1%

Brayan Bello Cutter: -14.9%

Andrew Painter Changeup: +14.9%

Anthony Kay Sweeper: +14.6%

Tim Mayza Sinker: -14.5%

Jack Perkins 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%

Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%

Kyle Freeland Sinker: +13.6%

Grayson Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: -13.5%

Ian Seymour Sinker: +13.0%

Quinn Mathews Sinker: +13.0%

Jose Soriano 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%

Ryan Johnson Sinker: -12.6%

Tanner Gordon Curveball: +12.6%

Trey Gibson Sinker: -12.5%

Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%

Anthony Kay 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%

Jeffrey Springs Slider: -12.3%

Dustin May 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%

Andre Pallante 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%

Richard Lovelady Sinker: +12.1%

Joe Ryan Sweeper: +12.1%

Shota Imanaga Split-Finger: +12.1%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Reynaldo Lopez - 46.0 RISP H%, 0.444 BABIP, 50.0 HR/FB, 190.0 Luck Score

Jacob Lopez - 44.0 RISP H%, 0.481 BABIP, 38.0 HR/FB, 187.0 Luck Score

Gabriel Hughes - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.4 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 184.0 Luck Score

Sean Newcomb - 42.0 RISP H%, 0.526 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 184.0 Luck Score

Luis Mey - 46.0 RISP H%, 0.571 BABIP, 17.0 HR/FB, 172.0 Luck Score

Brady Singer - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.448 BABIP, 40.0 HR/FB, 171.0 Luck Score

Jake Bennett - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.438 BABIP, 30.0 HR/FB, 165.0 Luck Score

George Kirby - 35.0 RISP H%, 0.383 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 163.0 Luck Score

Tanner Gordon - 35.0 RISP H%, 0.621 BABIP, 17.0 HR/FB, 162.0 Luck Score

Brady Basso - 44.0 RISP H%, 0.417 BABIP, 12.0 HR/FB, 155.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Dean Kremer - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.091 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 14.0 Luck Score

Emmet Sheehan - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.13 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 15.0 Luck Score

Joey Cantillo - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.167 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 18.0 Luck Score

Robert Gasser - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.182 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 20.0 Luck Score

Matt Wilkinson - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.2 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 23.0 Luck Score

Andrew Alvarez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.214 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 26.0 Luck Score

Ryan Yarbrough - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.25 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 35.0 Luck Score

Cristian Javier - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.216 BABIP, 6.0 HR/FB, 36.0 Luck Score

Griffin Jax - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.171 BABIP, 11.0 HR/FB, 39.0 Luck Score

Gavin Williams - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.28 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 44.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gavin Williams - 71 TBF, 37.5% CSW%

Jared Jones - 90 TBF, 35.8% CSW%

Tyler Glasnow - 72 TBF, 35.1% CSW%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.9% CSW%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 33.5% CSW%

Kevin Gausman - 94 TBF, 32.9% CSW%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 74 TBF, 32.7% CSW%

Trevor Rogers - 79 TBF, 32.6% CSW%

Patrick Sandoval - 68 TBF, 32.6% CSW%

Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 32.4% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Hunter Brown - 87 TBF, 39.1% K%

Jared Jones - 90 TBF, 38.9% K%

Gavin Williams - 71 TBF, 38.0% K%

Jackson Jobe - 68 TBF, 35.3% K%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%

Tyler Glasnow - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%

Jacob deGrom - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%

Cam Schlittler - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 32.9% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jared Jones - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 31.8% K-BB%

Hunter Brown - 87 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%

Reid Detmers - 67 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%

Jackson Jobe - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%

Gavin Williams - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%

Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%

Jacob deGrom - 84 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Andre Pallante - 90 TBF, 67.6% GB%

Framber Valdez - 94 TBF, 65.6% GB%

Walbert Urena - 99 TBF, 64.4% GB%

Hunter Brown - 87 TBF, 63.0% GB%

Clay Holmes - 73 TBF, 62.5% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 60.5% GB%

Jose Soriano - 99 TBF, 59.7% GB%

David Peterson - 65 TBF, 57.5% GB%

Kevin Gausman - 94 TBF, 56.5% GB%

Max Fried - 87 TBF, 55.7% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Brayan Bello - 56 TBF, 35.7 K%, 3.6 BB%, 60.6% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.8 K%, 3.0 BB%, 60.5% GB%

Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 31.9 K%, 4.2 BB%, 44.2% GB%

Jacob Misiorowski - 54 TBF, 37.0 K%, 5.6 BB%, 48.4% GB%

Kevin Gausman - 94 TBF, 29.8 K%, 4.3 BB%, 56.5% GB%

Logan Gilbert - 98 TBF, 31.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 46.6% GB%

Logan Webb - 47 TBF, 31.9 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.7% GB%

Parker Messick - 94 TBF, 31.9 K%, 5.3 BB%, 43.9% GB%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.1 BB%, 45.5% GB%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 5.4 BB%, 54.2% GB%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 34.7 K%, 6.1 BB%, 43.1% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Ryan Johnson - +3.4% CSW%, -5.7 BB%

Carlos Rodon - +2.7% CSW%, -1.5 BB%

Jared Jones - +4.8% CSW%, -3.2 BB%

Trevor Rogers - +4.8% CSW%, -4.8 BB%

Peter Lambert - +2.3% CSW%, -7.8 BB%

Payton Tolle - +4.5% CSW%, -2.9 BB%

Jackson Jobe - +4.4% CSW%, -4.4 BB%

Kevin Gausman - +3.8% CSW%, -2.1 BB%

Cade Cavalli - +4.1% CSW%, -3.8 BB%

Sean Manaea - +2.7% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Bubba Chandler - +3.3% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

Christian Scott - +2.3% CSW%, -4.0 BB%

Dustin May - +2.6% CSW%, -2.0 BB%

Emmet Sheehan - +2.2% CSW%, -2.1 BB%

Gabriel Hughes - +2.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

DL Hall - +4.1% CSW%, -1.9 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

Ben Rice (NYY) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Pete Alonso (BAL) 7 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Hardest Hit Balls

Henry Bolte (OAK) - 115.1mph - double

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 114.3mph - double

Francisco Alvarez (NYM) - 113.7mph - single

Dillon Dingler (DET) - 112.9mph - None

Colton Cowser (BAL) - 112.3mph - None

Dominic Canzone (SEA) - 112.0mph - single

Lars Nootbaar (ARI) - 112.0mph - None

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.9mph - None

Francisco Lindor (NYM) - 111.5mph - field_out

Coby Mayo (BAL) - 110.9mph - double

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Wilyer Abreu - 66 PA, 0.267 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff

Salvador Perez - 66 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.379 xwOBA, 0.086 Diff

Ezequiel Duran - 75 PA, 0.209 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff

Freddie Freeman - 66 PA, 0.18 wOBA, 0.26 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff

John Peck - 63 PA, 0.227 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff

Bo Bichette - 84 PA, 0.298 wOBA, 0.367 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff

Ryan Jeffers - 54 PA, 0.183 wOBA, 0.251 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff

J.T. Realmuto - 58 PA, 0.203 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff

Turner Hill - 66 PA, 0.216 wOBA, 0.28 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff

Jordan Walker - 69 PA, 0.187 wOBA, 0.244 xwOBA, 0.057 Diff

Bottom 10

Nolan Arenado - 70 PA, 0.506 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, -0.124 Diff

Travis Bazzana - 64 PA, 0.463 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, -0.116 Diff

Gabriel Moreno - 75 PA, 0.469 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff

Jonathan Aranda - 69 PA, 0.396 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff

Spencer Torkelson - 70 PA, 0.426 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff

Randy Arozarena - 80 PA, 0.457 wOBA, 0.36 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff

Yainer Diaz - 65 PA, 0.461 wOBA, 0.371 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff

A.J. Ewing - 67 PA, 0.437 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff

Brice Turang - 74 PA, 0.492 wOBA, 0.404 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff

Adley Rutschman - 56 PA, 0.35 wOBA, 0.262 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Brandon Lowe: 35.0 PA, +0.189 xwOBA OE

Yordan Alvarez: 33.0 PA, +0.139 xwOBA OE

Ronald Acuna Jr.: 29.0 PA, +0.136 xwOBA OE

Yainer Diaz: 30.0 PA, +0.132 xwOBA OE

Coby Mayo: 37.0 PA, +0.12 xwOBA OE

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 43.0 PA, +0.119 xwOBA OE

Pete Alonso: 37.0 PA, +0.115 xwOBA OE

Kyle Tucker: 34.0 PA, +0.107 xwOBA OE

Mike Trout: 39.0 PA, +0.092 xwOBA OE

Kevin McGonigle: 45.0 PA, +0.091 xwOBA OE

Zack Gelof: 33.0 PA, +0.091 xwOBA OE

Dominic Canzone: 35.0 PA, +0.091 xwOBA OE

Josue De Paula: 31.0 PA, +0.09 xwOBA OE

Drake Baldwin: 37.0 PA, +0.089 xwOBA OE

Carson Benge: 41.0 PA, +0.084 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Luis Garcia Jr.: 33.0 PA, -0.203 xwOBA OE

Jonny DeLuca: 27.0 PA, -0.172 xwOBA OE

Christian Moore: 27.0 PA, -0.167 xwOBA OE

Jeff McNeil: 28.0 PA, -0.158 xwOBA OE

Carter Jensen: 31.0 PA, -0.149 xwOBA OE

Adael Amador: 28.0 PA, -0.147 xwOBA OE

Matt McLain: 27.0 PA, -0.142 xwOBA OE

Dylan Beavers: 33.0 PA, -0.138 xwOBA OE

Bryce Harper: 36.0 PA, -0.134 xwOBA OE

Christian Koss: 33.0 PA, -0.131 xwOBA OE

Travis Bazzana: 30.0 PA, -0.13 xwOBA OE

Colson Montgomery: 30.0 PA, -0.129 xwOBA OE

Ozzie Albies: 32.0 PA, -0.129 xwOBA OE

Lars Nootbaar: 29.0 PA, -0.129 xwOBA OE

Christian Walker: 28.0 PA, -0.125 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Elly De La Cruz - 76 PA, 44 BIP, 14 Brls, 31.8 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 82 PA, 49 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.5 Brl%

Jake Bauers - 57 PA, 24 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.8 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 60 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Wyatt Langford - 75 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Corbin Carroll - 60 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%

Austin Riley - 64 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%

Riley Greene - 77 PA, 53 BIP, 10 Brls, 18.9 Brl%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 67 PA, 53 BIP, 10 Brls, 18.9 Brl%

Jake Burger - 75 PA, 38 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.4 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Riley Greene - 77 PA, 0.469 xwOBA

Elly De La Cruz - 76 PA, 0.465 xwOBA

Pete Alonso - 82 PA, 0.452 xwOBA

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 82 PA, 0.436 xwOBA

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 84 PA, 0.436 xwOBA

Ben Rice - 77 PA, 0.429 xwOBA

Coby Mayo - 75 PA, 0.426 xwOBA

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 72 PA, 0.423 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 77 PA, 0.421 xwOBA

Eugenio Suarez - 60 PA, 0.412 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 76 PA, 115 Swings, 98.3 Cont%

Nico Hoerner - 75 PA, 131 Swings, 91.6 Cont%

Chase DeLauter - 55 PA, 81 Swings, 91.4 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 85 PA, 132 Swings, 90.9 Cont%

Nathan Lukes - 69 PA, 135 Swings, 90.4 Cont%

Ernie Clement - 68 PA, 102 Swings, 90.2 Cont%

Geraldo Perdomo - 73 PA, 111 Swings, 90.1 Cont%

Alejandro Kirk - 57 PA, 99 Swings, 89.9 Cont%

Kyle Tucker - 72 PA, 118 Swings, 89.8 Cont%

Sam Antonacci - 62 PA, 105 Swings, 89.5 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jonah Cox - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Cooper Pratt - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Jose Ramirez - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Zach Neto - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Josh Naylor - 4 Attempts (2 steals)

Otto Lopez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Samad Taylor - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Cole Carrigg - 4 Attempts (2 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jonah Cox - 14 Attempts (11 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 12 Attempts (11 steals)

Otto Lopez - 10 Attempts (9 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 10 Attempts (9 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 9 Attempts (7 steals)

Oneil Cruz - 9 Attempts (6 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Zack Gelof - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Samad Taylor - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Jorge Mateo - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Miguel Vargas - 8 Attempts (8 steals)

A.J. Ewing - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Cooper Pratt - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Bryan Reynolds - 76 PA, 19.7 K%, 15.4 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 77 PA, 19.5 K%, 16.9 Brl%

Kyle Tucker - 72 PA, 9.7 K%, 14.5 Brl%

Riley Greene - 77 PA, 19.5 K%, 18.9 Brl%

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 72 PA, 15.3 K%, 14.5 Brl%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 67 PA, 13.4 K%, 18.9 Brl%

Zack Gelof - 76 PA, 19.7 K%, 18.2 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Coby Mayo - 104 PA, +0.125 xwOBA

Carter Jensen - 107 PA, +0.098 xwOBA

Elly De La Cruz - 115 PA, +0.095 xwOBA

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 127 PA, +0.09 xwOBA

Zack Gelof - 116 PA, +0.085 xwOBA

Jake Burger - 110 PA, +0.079 xwOBA

Thomas Saggese - 83 PA, +0.079 xwOBA

Teoscar Hernandez - 106 PA, +0.078 xwOBA

Riley Greene - 87 PA, +0.075 xwOBA

Javier Sanoja - 114 PA, +0.073 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

Elly De La Cruz - 115 PA, +14.9 Brl%

Daylen Lile - 102 PA, +10.8 Brl%

Jake Burger - 110 PA, +8.9 Brl%

Tim Tawa - 95 PA, +6.7 Brl%

Cal Raleigh - 112 PA, +6.4 Brl%

Coby Mayo - 104 PA, +5.8 Brl%

Carter Jensen - 107 PA, +5.7 Brl%

Zack Gelof - 116 PA, +5.7 Brl%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 127 PA, +5.7 Brl%

Henry Bolte - 123 PA, +4.8 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Brady House - 84 PA, +12.5 Cont%

Kyle Tucker - 104 PA, +9.9 Cont%

Ketel Marte - 85 PA, +9.3 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 110 PA, +7.5 Cont%

Christian Moore - 101 PA, +7.4 Cont%

Connor Norby - 103 PA, +7.3 Cont%

Seiya Suzuki - 123 PA, +7.0 Cont%

Coby Mayo - 104 PA, +6.3 Cont%

Hunter Goodman - 96 PA, +6.3 Cont%

Thomas Saggese - 83 PA, +6.3 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Marcus Semien - 103 PA, -13.5 K%

Brady House - 84 PA, -10.6 K%

Nathan Church - 100 PA, -10.3 K%

Wade Meckler - 92 PA, -9.4 K%

Braden Montgomery - 96 PA, -8.8 K%

Zack Gelof - 116 PA, -8.8 K%

Coby Mayo - 104 PA, -8.7 K%

Kazuma Okamoto - 105 PA, -8.3 K%

Thomas Saggese - 83 PA, -8.2 K%

Kyle Tucker - 104 PA, -7.8 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Eugenio Suarez: +2.4

Zach Neto: +2.3

Alec Bohm: +2.28

Michael Busch: +1.9

Heriberto Hernandez: +1.8

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

Oneil Cruz: -6.5

Ronald Acuna Jr.: -3.2

Jac Caglianone: -2.95

Carson Kelly: -2.7

Jakob Marsee: -2.6

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Ben Rice - 0.407 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 81.2% Contact%, 18.6% Chase%, 16.9% K%

Kyle Tucker - 0.428 xwOBA, 17.1% Brl%, 93.0% Contact%, 17.2% Chase%, 7.7% K%

Mookie Betts - 0.397 xwOBA, 11.4% Brl%, 92.0% Contact%, 17.9% Chase%, 7.1% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Jake Burger - 34.8% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.928 Cold Rating

Victor Caratini - 34.0% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.919 Cold Rating

Ryan Jeffers - 32.1% Whiff%, 81.0% Weak%, 0.906 Cold Rating

Christian Moore - 34.1% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating

Colson Montgomery - 41.9% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.885 Cold Rating

Brandon Nimmo - 40.0% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.867 Cold Rating

Sean Murphy - 36.7% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.831 Cold Rating

Bryce Harper - 35.0% Whiff%, 67.6% Weak%, 0.826 Cold Rating

Evan Carter - 33.3% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.818 Cold Rating

Kyle Teel - 32.6% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.817 Cold Rating

Today’s SP Streamer Picks

Grayson Rodriguez (25.0% Owned): Projected 5.86IP 2.65ER 5.72SO 2.64BB 15.4FPts

Kumar Rocker (16.0% Owned): Projected 5.32IP 2.46ER 4.99SO 2.34BB 13.96FPts

Zac Thornton (44.0% Owned): Projected 5.26IP 2.27ER 4.5SO 1.28BB 13.52FPts

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

Samad Taylor - 27 PA, 1.2 OPS

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 33 PA, 1.097 OPS

Walker Jenkins - 32 PA, 1.084 OPS

Jake Cronenworth - 38 PA, 1.05 OPS

Josue De Paula - 31 PA, 0.984 OPS

Cole Carrigg - 39 PA, 0.964 OPS

Brenton Doyle - 27 PA, 0.963 OPS

Vaughn Grissom - 37 PA, 0.957 OPS

Dominic Canzone - 35 PA, 0.911 OPS

Randal Grichuk - 31 PA, 0.894 OPS

Today’s Hitter Streamer Picks

Heriberto Hernandez LF (34.0% Owned): Projected 0.7R 0.24HR 0.52RBI 0.99SO 0.46BB 0.11SB 9.11FPts

Lars Nootbaar RF (7.0% Owned): Projected 0.84R 0.19HR 0.62RBI 0.76SO 0.39BB 0.04SB 9.05FPts

Henry Bolte OF (49.0% Owned): Projected 0.71R 0.15HR 0.52RBI 1.32SO 0.39BB 0.21SB 8.71FPts

Garrett Mitchell CF (32.0% Owned): Projected 0.74R 0.12HR 0.56RBI 1.42SO 0.54BB 0.13SB 8.63FPts

Kyle Teel C (18.0% Owned): Projected 0.7R 0.15HR 0.59RBI 0.98SO 0.55BB 0.05SB 8.55FPts

J.P. Crawford SS (2.0% Owned): Projected 0.73R 0.12HR 0.53RBI 0.98SO 0.67BB 0.05SB 8.41FPts

Pedro Ramirez SS (25.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.1HR 0.6RBI 0.64SO 0.44BB 0.2SB 8.15FPts

Yainer Diaz C (40.0% Owned): Projected 0.62R 0.17HR 0.64RBI 0.62SO 0.18BB 0.02SB 7.98FPts

Jake Burger 3B (40.0% Owned): Projected 0.54R 0.22HR 0.63RBI 1.05SO 0.3BB 0.03SB 7.96FPts

Lazaro Montes OF (20.0% Owned): Projected 0.61R 0.22HR 0.56RBI 1.16SO 0.48BB 0.05SB 7.96FPts

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The Run Environment

The sim’s top team totals are the Angels (6.69), Mariners (6.40), White Sox (6.37) and Dodgers (6.25), followed by the Cubs (5.82), Diamondbacks (5.59), Mets (5.54) and Rockies (5.46). LAA-ATH (11.17) and ARI-COL (11.05) are the top games. CIN-ATL (7.44) and TB-NYY (7.45) are the pitching games, and the Reds’ 2.81 is the lowest number on the board.

What we have to watch out for now is all the substitutions: pitchers getting pulled, hitters getting pulled. It’s the last week of the season. What we’re looking for is guys like yesterday: Jones to go out and throw a big game, Wheeler to go out and throw a big game. We got to really condense our pool because otherwise you’re going to end up getting wrecked. I.e., look at all the teams that used just relievers yesterday, and then you have things like the horrible Angels bullpen that blew a lead of 200 million runs last night.

So here is the thing: this week, we can project all we want, and all we really care about is projected playing time, correctly. Because, this last week of the season, if you get that right (especially with pitching), you’re always going to have massive leverage in whatever slate you’re playing, whether single entry, 3 max, or GPP. One of the things I do this week is I’ll be hawking X to try to get better leverage on playing time. If I see things adjusting accordingly, also having an advantage to a late swap of these slates is a big deal because a lot of people aren’t going to take advantage of it, and it matters this time of year. I’m not going to put all the screenshots in because the projections are going to show what it looks like if they run full games, and that’s just not reality here. We’re trying to find out who’s going to have the correct playing time.

Weather

No real weather issues on the main slate today, thankfully.

Pitching

The Stud…MAYBE

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Player of the Day

Jared Jones is finishing the year like an ace. He’s raising his 2027 price like few others here at the end of 2026.

→ 7.0IP 1H 0ER 0R 9K 0BB

Dominated the Cardinals. One (super bloop) hit, nine strikeouts, no walks.

His last seven starts now: 2.09 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 34.6% K%, 7.8% BB%.

It’s all coming together for Jones. He has an 18.5% SwStr%, 33.6% Ball%, 2.02 JA SIERA, .258 xwOBA allowed in this last stretch. He’s a lot like Chase Burns. High-90s fastball, wipeout slider, and a curve/changeup behind it. If he keeps up this command next year and improves the changeup and curveball a bit more with a healthy offseason to get ready, he’s a potential ace in the league. We’ve always known about his ceiling, and here’s hoping that he reaches it next year.

Great end of the year for the Pirates who now have a +31 run differential, which is tied one of the better differentials in the National League.

1. Dodgers +200

2. Brewers +200

3. Cubs +146

4. Braves +116

5. Padres +34

6. Phillies +31

7. Pirates +31

What could have been! My Pirates could have been a playoff team this year if things they had stayed a little more healthy offensively, not seen Skenes crash down, and gotten a little more luck in the close games. SAD.

Pitchers

Zack Wheeler led the day with 23 whiffs. He struck out 11 in 5.2 innings.

→ 5.67IP 5H 3ER 3R 11K 1BB

So he’s ready for the playoffs. The Jesus Luzardo injury is a backbreaker for them, but they might get him back in time. Wheeler + Sanchez + Luzardo would make the Phillies a really tough out in a postseason series. And Aaron Nola has been pitching great as well. Can’t wait for next week, it’s going to be a fun October of baseball.

Drew Rasmussen also had 11 strikeouts.

→ 6.67IP 1H 1ER 1R 11K 3BB

He threw… 114 pitches. Needless to say that’s a career high. I’m really surprised by that, but the gloves are off for the Rays and they’re going to ride their best pitcher hard as they wrap up this division and try to make some noise in the playoffs.

Hard not to root for the Rays and Brewers this fall as the small-market teams that are among the best teams and orgs in the league. They’ll need some big swings from Junior Caminero and good outings from whoever they use behind Rasmussen. I’m guessing it’ll be Drew and then a bunch of bullpen games in the playoffs.

Rasdaddy is down to a 2.67 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP on a 26% K% and 4.8% BB%. Elite arm there. He’s usually been cheap in drafts; that won’t happen agian next year. And that might turn him into an avoid in drafts. He’s going to end up with 180+ innings this year, a career-high by far, so there will be some hesitations about buying him as an SP1/SP2 in fantasy next year since he’ll be knocking on the door of being 32 years old.

Carlos Rodon - 8.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 8K 0BB

He’s ready to go for the postseason! In his four September starts, he has a 1.42 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 30% K%, and 7.5% BB% with a 0.71 HR/9. Looking like prime Rodon at the exactly right time for the Yanks.

Michael Soroka - 7.0IP 2H 1ER 2R 9K 1BB

The Diamondbacks ace went off in Coors. Nine strikeouts, seven innings with two hits and the one run. 16 whiffs, 17.2% SwStr%. The Rockies lost their 100th game, and they’re sort of limping to the finish line. I don’t really believe the D’Backs can do much of anything in the playoffs, I think it’s safe to say they’ll be the worst NL team in the playoffs if they make it. But they have to be feeling a little better about it after this dominant outing from Soroka as he’s gotten back and healthy and built up to 93 pitches.

The Dodgers limited Dustin May to 36 pitches as they prep for next week’s playoff series. This is a good case study for why you shouldn’t let your head-to-head leagues use the final week as the championship. But you could have also seen this coming, I guess, and maybe you shouldn’t have been starting Dustin May anyways.

I’m still a believer in what the Brewers can do with the stuff he has, but he has a 5.61 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in nine starts with them, so they haven’t solved the puzzle yet.

JR Ritchie - 5.0IP 4H 1ER 1R 8K 3BB

Decent result for Ritchie. His best work in the Majors so far. He has a 22% K% and 13.7% BB% in his 67.2 MLB innings this year. That's gone for a 4.92 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 1.6 HR/9. I don’t believe the Braves will want to give him important innings in the playoffs, but he’s still one of their top pitching prospects (which is a bad sign for the Braves) and they don’t have much going on behind Chris Sale in that rotation. It’ll be Sale + Mahle and then chaos.

Payton Tolle - 5.67IP 8H 2ER 2R 5K 2BB

Not a clean finish to Tolle’s breakout season. Eight hits, but just two runs and he threw 91 pitches. If I were the Red Sox, he’d be my #1 in the playoffs. But Sonny Gray might get the ball in whatever game one they play in.

Terrific season for Tolle. 3.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 28.4% K%, 6.6% BB%.

Hitters

The Royals are a mess. They’re 67-90 with five games to go. Their pitching has been a mess. Tony Gonsolin appeared and gave up five runs in 2.2 innings after Daniel Lynch gave up nine in four innings.

I didn’t know Gonsolin was a Royal. His 2022 season didn’t make sense at the time, and it makes even less now.

That led to a big old game for plenty of White Sox bats:

Four hits, four runs, a homer from Randal Grichuk. He has mashed lefties again this year with a .331/.368/.650 slash line and TEN homers in 171 PAs. There’s a spot for him on a roster somewhere next year, I imagine.

Chase Meidroth was the other big damage-doer for the South Siders. He joins Brooks Lee as a light-swinging infielder with a surprising number of homers this year. I didn’t see 16 bombs coming from Meidroth, and he’s up to 634 PAs now with a .271/.344/.409 slash line. Pretty good player there. But some luck with a .328 BABIP and .234 xBA. He’s the third “luckiest” hitter by xBA minus BA:

No reason to believe much in Meidroth as a 12-team league guy next year. He’s probably a 12-homer guy in a normal situation and he’ll project for some batting average regression next year.

Elly De La Cruz and CJ Abrams added onto their sweet 2026 seasons.

Elly’s hitting .288/.370/.521 now with 29 bombs and 29 steals. If he gets one more homer and one more steal to get to 30-30, he’ll have had a WAY BETTER SEASON than if he stays at 29-29. That’s how it works. We work on a base-ten mathematical system here in the west. 30 homers is MORE BETTER than 29 than 29 is to 28. That’s a sentence for you there. How do you even say that appropriately? Your 30th homer is worth way more than your 29th, that’s just math and science.

CJ Abrams was one of the best picks in drafts this year. 33 homers, 32 steals, .260 average for that guy. As far as we can tell, he’s been avoiding the 4am casino trips and sleeping well. He’s raised his OPS by almost 100 points this year, doing his best work at age 25.

Another big offensive night in Sacramento. Athletics won it 9-7.

Athletics hitters will be a buy next year. They’ve missed so much time from their three best hitters (Kurtz, Soderstrom, and Langeliers). They should all be fully healthy next year for one more go-around in this ridiculous park. Good to see Langeliers especially getting back for the last couple of weeks.

Two young guns had nice days. Konnor Griffin led the Pirates offense with 16 fantasy points. He has played 75 games this year and hit .271/.324/.397 with five bombs and 23 steals. That’s a ton of steals (33% attempt%), but an underwhelming power supply.

• 6.5% Brl%

• 52% GB%

• 13% Air Pull%

It’s been more about launch angle than EVs for him. He’s hit the ball hard (106.6 EV90), but just hasn’t gotten many balls in the air enough.

But that might be fine. Hard-hit line drives and ground balls are pretty great for batting average when you have this much speed. Eventually that power will develop and I think he’ll be a 20+ homer guy next year. The best comp for him is probably Bobby Witt Jr., who has gone for 30 homers only twice in his five seasons. But Griffin could eventually be a .290+ hitter with 30+ steals yearly and turn in at least a few 30+ homer seasons. Tough park to hit in for a righty, but yeah, I don’t think Griffin will make it past 30 very often next year.

Josue De Paula had two hits and another walk. He’s hitting .323/.500/.581 with a 12% K% and 26% BB% in his 11 games. I didn’t think he could be this good this early. He hasn’t hit the ball super hard yet (102 EV90, but 105 on fly balls). His best tool is plate discipline.

• 37% Swing%

• 19% Chase%

• 89% Zone-Contact%

He knows what to swing at, and he makes contact a super high rate. He’s 6’3’’, so there’s power in the tank. Huge huge ceiling for De Paula, and I think he’ll be in the Dodgers playoff lineup.

Mike Trout has 21 homers this year and a .795 OPS. He’s fallen a long ways from prime Trout, but he’s been healthy this year. 603 PAs, 138 games and counting. That’s the most game he’s played since 2018 (140). But he’s hit .245 and stolen 11 bags. So this is probably the best-case season for Trout at this point in his Hall of Fame career.

Munetaka Murakami has not figured out how to make more contact. I don’t think he cares. He’s hit 33 bombs with a .348 OBP, so he’s good for that. But the batting average is .203 now and he has a 35.6% K%. This is Max Muncy except Japanese. His BABIP is .259, which is probably about what we should expect as a guy who is up there looking to hit bombs or take walks. With that kind of swing, you’re not going to put up a high BABIP, and the K% probably can’t ever be better than 30% or so. I feel somewhat justified on not wanting him this year, but you’d have to say that a 33-homer season with his high OBP is a win for certain league types, and he was certainly a steal with the contract the White Sox got him to take.

Much more player analysis to do, we’ll get the offseason stuff started right away when the playoffs conclude. Thanks for reading!

Pitcher Reports

Yesterdays Pitcher Debuts

Tony Gonsolin (KC): 2.67IP, 4H, 5ER, 5SO, 3BB

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. Jared Jones

2. Zack Wheeler

3. Michael Soroka

4. Carlos Rodon

5. Drew Rasmussen

6. Sean Manaea

7. JR Ritchie

8. Drew Anderson

9. Janson Junk

10. Shota Imanaga

11. Nick Martinez

12. Payton Tolle

13. Anthony Molina

14. Anthony Kay

15. Taj Bradley

16. Parker Messick

17. Logan Gilbert

18. Max Fried

19. Michael King

20. Riley Cornelio

21. Brandon Williamson

22. Andre Pallante

23. Kyle Freeland

24. Yusei Kikuchi

25. Brady Basso

26. Daniel Lynch IV

27. MacKenzie Gore

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Jared Jones (vs. STL): 37.15 Points

2. Drew Rasmussen (vs. NYY): 36.61 Points

3. Carlos Rodon (vs. TB): 36.2 Points

4. Michael Soroka (vs. COL): 33.95 Points

5. Sean Manaea (vs. TEX): 28.5 Points

6. Zack Wheeler (vs. MIL): 25.16 Points

7. Taj Bradley (vs. SF): 23.9 Points

8. Janson Junk (vs. CHC): 21.45 Points

9. JR Ritchie (vs. CIN): 21.05 Points

10. Shota Imanaga (vs. MIA): 20.85 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 23 Whiffs (101 Pitches)

2. Drew Rasmussen (TB): 18 Whiffs (114 Pitches)

3. Jared Jones (PIT): 18 Whiffs (86 Pitches)

4. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 18 Whiffs (96 Pitches)

5. Michael Soroka (ARI): 16 Whiffs (93 Pitches)

6. Sean Manaea (NYM): 16 Whiffs (99 Pitches)

7. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)

8. JR Ritchie (ATL): 12 Whiffs (86 Pitches)

9. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 11 Whiffs (85 Pitches)

10. Taj Bradley (MIN): 11 Whiffs (104 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Jared Jones (PIT): 58.1 Strike%, 26.7 Ball%

2. Janson Junk (MIA): 57.1 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%

3. Sean Manaea (NYM): 55.6 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%

4. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 54.5 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%

5. Drew Rasmussen (TB): 54.4 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%

6. Drew Anderson (DET): 52.1 Strike%, 23.9 Ball%

7. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 51.6 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%

8. Michael Soroka (ARI): 50.5 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%

9. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 50.0 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%

10. Taj Bradley (MIN): 50.0 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%

11. Parker Messick (CLE): 50.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%

12. Anthony Molina (SF): 49.4 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%

13. Riley Cornelio (WSH): 48.3 Strike%, 45.0 Ball%

14. Nick Martinez (TB): 47.9 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%

15. JR Ritchie (ATL): 47.7 Strike%, 39.5 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Brandon Williamson: 68 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.78 POUT

2. Drew Anderson: 71 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.94 POUT

3. Carlos Rodon: 96 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.0 POUT

4. Jared Jones: 86 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.1 POUT

5. Michael Soroka: 93 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.65 POUT

6. Colton Gordon: 70 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.67 POUT

7. Anthony Molina: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT

8. Max Fried: 97 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.85 POUT

9. Andre Pallante: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT

10. MacKenzie Gore: 77 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.13 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Brandon Williamson’s FC velo (31 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 91.1

Kyle Freeland’s FF velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 90.0

Max Fried’s SI velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.2

Owen Murphy’s FF velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 91.2

Drew Rasmussen’s FC velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 88.1

Max Fried’s FC velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.1

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Anthony Kay’s ST usage (38.5%) up 15.3 points

Anthony Kay’s SI usage (33.8%) up 15.9 points

Anthony Molina’s SV usage (15.3%) up 14.1 points

Brandon Williamson’s FC usage (45.6%) up 12.5 points

Colton Gordon’s SI usage (44.3%) up 31.4 points

Drew Rasmussen’s CH usage (19.3%) up 11.3 points

Jackson Kent’s SL usage (40.3%) up 19.2 points

Jared Jones’s FF usage (60.5%) up 13.7 points

Michael King’s FF usage (33.3%) up 11.8 points

Michael Soroka’s FC usage (18.3%) up 11.8 points

Nick Martinez’s SI usage (37.2%) up 11.0 points

Parker Messick’s FF usage (54.2%) up 12.1 points

Payton Tolle’s SI usage (38.5%) up 16.4 points

Riley Cornelio’s FC usage (21.7%) up 10.7 points

Shota Imanaga’s FS usage (44.0%) up 10.5 points

Tony Gonsolin’s FF usage (58.7%) up 16.7 points

Yusei Kikuchi’s FS usage (17.0%) up 11.9 points

Zach Agnos’s ST usage (35.8%) up 19.0 points

Zack Wheeler’s FS usage (22.8%) up 10.3 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Tim Mayza 4-Seam Fastball: +26.5%

Dustin May Sinker: +18.9%

Gabriel Hughes 4-Seam Fastball: -16.0%

Walbert Urena 4-Seam Fastball: -15.8%

Robbie Ray Sinker: +15.6%

Ryan Johnson Sweeper: +15.1%

Brayan Bello Cutter: -14.9%

Andrew Painter Changeup: +14.9%

Anthony Kay Sweeper: +14.6%

Tim Mayza Sinker: -14.5%

Jack Perkins 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%

Walbert Urena Sinker: +14.3%

Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%

Kyle Freeland Sinker: +13.6%

Grayson Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: -13.5%

Nolan McLean Sweeper: -13.2%

Quinn Mathews Sinker: +13.0%

Ian Seymour Sinker: +13.0%

Jose Soriano 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%

Tanner Gordon Curveball: +12.6%

Ryan Johnson Sinker: -12.6%

Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%

Anthony Kay 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%

Dustin May 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%

Andre Pallante 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%

Joe Ryan Sweeper: +12.1%

Shota Imanaga Split-Finger: +12.1%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Reynaldo Lopez - 46.0 RISP H%, 0.444 BABIP, 50.0 HR/FB, 191.0 Luck Score

Sean Newcomb - 46.0 RISP H%, 0.6 BABIP, 40.0 HR/FB, 191.0 Luck Score

Jacob Lopez - 44.0 RISP H%, 0.481 BABIP, 38.0 HR/FB, 186.0 Luck Score

Brady Singer - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.448 BABIP, 40.0 HR/FB, 173.0 Luck Score

Jake Bennett - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.438 BABIP, 30.0 HR/FB, 168.0 Luck Score

George Kirby - 36.0 RISP H%, 0.394 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 166.0 Luck Score

Gabriel Hughes - 36.0 RISP H%, 0.375 BABIP, 22.0 HR/FB, 162.0 Luck Score

Brandon Young - 31.0 RISP H%, 0.361 BABIP, 30.0 HR/FB, 161.0 Luck Score

Tyler Zuber - 78.0 RISP H%, 0.3 BABIP, 30.0 HR/FB, 160.0 Luck Score

Tanner Gordon - 35.0 RISP H%, 0.621 BABIP, 17.0 HR/FB, 159.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Emmet Sheehan - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.13 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 15.0 Luck Score

Joey Cantillo - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.167 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 18.0 Luck Score

Robert Gasser - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.182 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 18.0 Luck Score

Matt Wilkinson - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.2 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 22.0 Luck Score

Andrew Alvarez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.214 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 27.0 Luck Score

Dean Kremer - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.162 BABIP, 7.0 HR/FB, 28.0 Luck Score

Landen Roupp - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.233 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 31.0 Luck Score

Hagen Smith - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.235 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 33.0 Luck Score

Cristian Javier - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.216 BABIP, 6.0 HR/FB, 36.0 Luck Score

Griffin Jax - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.171 BABIP, 11.0 HR/FB, 37.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gavin Williams - 71 TBF, 37.5% CSW%

Jared Jones - 90 TBF, 35.8% CSW%

Tyler Glasnow - 72 TBF, 35.1% CSW%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.9% CSW%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 75 TBF, 34.3% CSW%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 33.5% CSW%

Jacob Misiorowski - 75 TBF, 33.1% CSW%

Kevin Gausman - 72 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 32.4% CSW%

Andrew Alvarez - 68 TBF, 32.2% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Hunter Brown - 87 TBF, 39.1% K%

Jared Jones - 90 TBF, 38.9% K%

Gavin Williams - 71 TBF, 38.0% K%

Jackson Jobe - 68 TBF, 35.3% K%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%

Tyler Glasnow - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%

Jacob deGrom - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%

Cam Schlittler - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%

Logan Henderson - 63 TBF, 33.3% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jared Jones - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 31.8% K-BB%

Hunter Brown - 87 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%

Reid Detmers - 92 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%

Logan Henderson - 63 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%

Jackson Jobe - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%

Cam Schlittler - 96 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%

Trevor Rogers - 103 TBF, 29.1% K-BB%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Framber Valdez - 72 TBF, 68.6% GB%

Andre Pallante - 90 TBF, 67.6% GB%

Brayan Bello - 73 TBF, 63.8% GB%

Walbert Urena - 79 TBF, 63.2% GB%

Hunter Brown - 87 TBF, 63.0% GB%

Clay Holmes - 73 TBF, 62.5% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 60.5% GB%

Foster Griffin - 63 TBF, 60.5% GB%

Jose Soriano - 99 TBF, 59.7% GB%

Max Fried - 87 TBF, 55.7% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Brayan Bello - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 5.5 BB%, 63.8% GB%

Cade Cavalli - 66 TBF, 34.8 K%, 3.0 BB%, 60.5% GB%

Cam Schlittler - 96 TBF, 34.4 K%, 5.2 BB%, 44.8% GB%

Drew Sommers - 45 TBF, 31.1 K%, 2.2 BB%, 71.4% GB%

Kevin Gausman - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 54.2% GB%

Logan Gilbert - 98 TBF, 31.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 46.6% GB%

Logan Webb - 47 TBF, 31.9 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.7% GB%

Parker Messick - 94 TBF, 31.9 K%, 5.3 BB%, 43.9% GB%

Payton Tolle - 73 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.1 BB%, 45.5% GB%

Reid Detmers - 92 TBF, 32.6 K%, 2.2 BB%, 45.8% GB%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 75 TBF, 33.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, 55.6% GB%

Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 34.7 K%, 6.1 BB%, 43.1% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Ryan Johnson - +3.4% CSW%, -5.7 BB%

Carlos Rodon - +2.7% CSW%, -1.5 BB%

Jared Jones - +4.8% CSW%, -3.2 BB%

Trevor Rogers - +4.8% CSW%, -4.8 BB%

Peter Lambert - +2.3% CSW%, -7.8 BB%

Payton Tolle - +4.5% CSW%, -2.9 BB%

Kevin Gausman - +4.4% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

Jackson Jobe - +4.4% CSW%, -4.4 BB%

Cade Cavalli - +4.1% CSW%, -3.8 BB%

Sean Manaea - +2.7% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Bubba Chandler - +3.3% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

Christian Scott - +2.3% CSW%, -4.0 BB%

Dustin May - +2.6% CSW%, -2.0 BB%

Emmet Sheehan - +2.2% CSW%, -2.1 BB%

Gabriel Hughes - +2.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

C.J. Abrams (WSH) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Cam Smith (HOU) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Corbin Carroll (ARI) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Francisco Alvarez (NYM) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Lawrence Butler (OAK) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Nolan Arenado (ARI) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Randal Grichuk (CWS) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Hardest Hit Balls

Nick Fortes (TB) - 112.7mph - field_out

Francisco Alvarez (NYM) - 112.3mph - double

Cam Smith (HOU) - 110.9mph - double

Tim Tawa (ARI) - 110.9mph - double

Lawrence Butler (OAK) - 110.8mph - double

Michael Harris II (ATL) - 110.8mph - double

Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 110.7mph - double

Heliot Ramos (NYY) - 110.5mph - double

Colson Montgomery (CWS) - 110.4mph - None

Michael Harris II (ATL) - 110.3mph - field_out

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Bryson Stott - 65 PA, 0.232 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff

Braden Montgomery - 60 PA, 0.249 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff

J.T. Realmuto - 57 PA, 0.206 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff

Ryan Jeffers - 56 PA, 0.183 wOBA, 0.261 xwOBA, 0.078 Diff

John Peck - 66 PA, 0.25 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff

Turner Hill - 67 PA, 0.229 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff

Christian Walker - 63 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff

Wilyer Abreu - 66 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.352 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff

Jordan Walker - 70 PA, 0.19 wOBA, 0.25 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff

Salvador Perez - 67 PA, 0.316 wOBA, 0.375 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff

Bottom 10

Nolan Arenado - 69 PA, 0.5 wOBA, 0.379 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff

Travis Bazzana - 64 PA, 0.452 wOBA, 0.339 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff

Alika Williams - 57 PA, 0.348 wOBA, 0.247 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff

Cody Bellinger - 78 PA, 0.384 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff

Spencer Torkelson - 70 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.358 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff

Cole Carrigg - 77 PA, 0.385 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff

Jonathan Aranda - 69 PA, 0.409 wOBA, 0.315 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff

Javier Sanoja - 76 PA, 0.425 wOBA, 0.333 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff

Ty France - 64 PA, 0.442 wOBA, 0.351 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff

Jakob Marsee - 74 PA, 0.471 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Zack Gelof: 34.0 PA, +0.174 xwOBA OE

Brandon Lowe: 33.0 PA, +0.163 xwOBA OE

Yordan Alvarez: 30.0 PA, +0.146 xwOBA OE

Josue De Paula: 34.0 PA, +0.138 xwOBA OE

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 42.0 PA, +0.122 xwOBA OE

Gunnar Henderson: 35.0 PA, +0.12 xwOBA OE

Alec Bohm: 35.0 PA, +0.118 xwOBA OE

Elly De La Cruz: 37.0 PA, +0.116 xwOBA OE

Ronald Acuna Jr.: 34.0 PA, +0.104 xwOBA OE

Kevin McGonigle: 44.0 PA, +0.103 xwOBA OE

Lawrence Butler: 35.0 PA, +0.096 xwOBA OE

Yainer Diaz: 29.0 PA, +0.095 xwOBA OE

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 39.0 PA, +0.09 xwOBA OE

Pete Alonso: 35.0 PA, +0.086 xwOBA OE

Dylan Crews: 31.0 PA, +0.084 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Luis Garcia Jr.: 31.0 PA, -0.232 xwOBA OE

Christian Moore: 27.0 PA, -0.206 xwOBA OE

Jeff McNeil: 28.0 PA, -0.181 xwOBA OE

Jonny DeLuca: 28.0 PA, -0.178 xwOBA OE

Ozzie Albies: 33.0 PA, -0.166 xwOBA OE

Carter Jensen: 29.0 PA, -0.163 xwOBA OE

Dylan Beavers: 30.0 PA, -0.136 xwOBA OE

Ernie Clement: 29.0 PA, -0.132 xwOBA OE

Royce Lewis: 33.0 PA, -0.128 xwOBA OE

Adael Amador: 28.0 PA, -0.126 xwOBA OE

Adley Rutschman: 28.0 PA, -0.118 xwOBA OE

Christian Koss: 34.0 PA, -0.11 xwOBA OE

Kody Clemens: 39.0 PA, -0.108 xwOBA OE

Bryan Reynolds: 35.0 PA, -0.1 xwOBA OE

Bryce Harper: 37.0 PA, -0.1 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Elly De La Cruz - 76 PA, 45 BIP, 15 Brls, 33.3 Brl%

Carter Jensen - 69 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 80 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%

Zack Gelof - 77 PA, 55 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.8 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 77 PA, 59 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.3 Brl%

Jake Bauers - 58 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Eugenio Suarez - 56 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Corbin Carroll - 59 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Wyatt Langford - 75 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%

Riley Greene - 78 PA, 53 BIP, 10 Brls, 18.9 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Elly De La Cruz - 76 PA, 0.49 xwOBA

Riley Greene - 78 PA, 0.453 xwOBA

Jackson Merrill - 77 PA, 0.443 xwOBA

Carter Jensen - 69 PA, 0.442 xwOBA

Pete Alonso - 80 PA, 0.44 xwOBA

Brett Baty - 45 PA, 0.439 xwOBA

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 85 PA, 0.439 xwOBA

Eugenio Suarez - 56 PA, 0.429 xwOBA

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 81 PA, 0.425 xwOBA

Coby Mayo - 71 PA, 0.425 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 76 PA, 118 Swings, 97.5 Cont%

Chase DeLauter - 55 PA, 78 Swings, 93.6 Cont%

Nico Hoerner - 75 PA, 132 Swings, 91.7 Cont%

Ernie Clement - 66 PA, 101 Swings, 91.1 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 84 PA, 131 Swings, 90.8 Cont%

Alex Bregman - 69 PA, 108 Swings, 89.8 Cont%

Geraldo Perdomo - 72 PA, 115 Swings, 89.6 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 76 PA, 130 Swings, 89.2 Cont%

Alejandro Kirk - 57 PA, 100 Swings, 89.0 Cont%

J.P. Crawford - 80 PA, 123 Swings, 88.6 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jonah Cox - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Cooper Pratt - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Zach Neto - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Jose Caballero - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Jose Ramirez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Brayan Rocchio - 4 Attempts (2 steals)

Cole Carrigg - 4 Attempts (2 steals)

Caleb Durbin - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jonah Cox - 14 Attempts (11 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 12 Attempts (11 steals)

Jackson Chourio - 10 Attempts (9 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 10 Attempts (9 steals)

Otto Lopez - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Oneil Cruz - 9 Attempts (6 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Jorge Mateo - 9 Attempts (7 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Cooper Pratt - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

A.J. Ewing - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Miguel Vargas - 8 Attempts (8 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Brett Baty - 45 PA, 13.3 K%, 16.1 Brl%

Bryan Reynolds - 77 PA, 18.2 K%, 16.4 Brl%

Coby Mayo - 71 PA, 19.7 K%, 16.3 Brl%

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 81 PA, 19.8 K%, 14.3 Brl%

Jackson Merrill - 77 PA, 19.5 K%, 20.3 Brl%

Kyle Tucker - 73 PA, 9.6 K%, 14.5 Brl%

Michael Conforto - 50 PA, 18.0 K%, 14.7 Brl%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 68 PA, 13.2 K%, 18.5 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Mickey Gasper - 80 PA, +0.155 xwOBA

Coby Mayo - 100 PA, +0.118 xwOBA

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 128 PA, +0.104 xwOBA

Elly De La Cruz - 116 PA, +0.104 xwOBA

Carter Jensen - 104 PA, +0.095 xwOBA

Zack Gelof - 117 PA, +0.09 xwOBA

Riley Greene - 82 PA, +0.08 xwOBA

Thomas Saggese - 83 PA, +0.079 xwOBA

Jake Burger - 111 PA, +0.078 xwOBA

Eugenio Suarez - 89 PA, +0.078 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

Elly De La Cruz - 116 PA, +14.4 Brl%

Mickey Gasper - 80 PA, +13.5 Brl%

Daylen Lile - 106 PA, +10.0 Brl%

Jake Burger - 111 PA, +9.5 Brl%

Zack Gelof - 117 PA, +7.8 Brl%

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 128 PA, +6.7 Brl%

Carter Jensen - 104 PA, +6.2 Brl%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 100 PA, +6.2 Brl%

Cal Raleigh - 111 PA, +6.0 Brl%

Corbin Carroll - 101 PA, +5.6 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Brady House - 80 PA, +13.0 Cont%

Ketel Marte - 81 PA, +10.0 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 109 PA, +8.4 Cont%

Kyle Tucker - 104 PA, +8.3 Cont%

Connor Norby - 106 PA, +8.2 Cont%

Seiya Suzuki - 125 PA, +7.4 Cont%

Jared Young - 81 PA, +7.1 Cont%

Christian Moore - 101 PA, +7.1 Cont%

Ernie Clement - 93 PA, +6.3 Cont%

Thomas Saggese - 83 PA, +6.3 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Marcus Semien - 103 PA, -12.5 K%

Brady House - 80 PA, -11.0 K%

Nathan Church - 96 PA, -9.9 K%

Kazuma Okamoto - 101 PA, -9.6 K%

Wade Meckler - 88 PA, -8.9 K%

Coby Mayo - 100 PA, -8.8 K%

Thomas Saggese - 83 PA, -8.2 K%

Bryan Reynolds - 115 PA, -8.1 K%

Seiya Suzuki - 125 PA, -8.0 K%

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 112 PA, -7.6 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Alec Bohm: +2.58

Heliot Ramos: +2.5

Jake Mangum: +2.28

Eugenio Suarez: +2.25

Michael Busch: +2.25

####Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

Oneil Cruz: -5.6

Hunter Goodman: -3.1

Jac Caglianone: -3.0

Ronald Acuna Jr.: -2.95

Austin Riley: -2.9

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Alex Bregman - 0.378 xwOBA, 11.4% Brl%, 86.3% Contact%, 23.9% Chase%, 6.7% K%

Kyle Tucker - 0.43 xwOBA, 18.4% Brl%, 92.5% Contact%, 14.9% Chase%, 8.2% K%

Mookie Betts - 0.414 xwOBA, 11.6% Brl%, 92.6% Contact%, 15.7% Chase%, 5.5% K%

Wilyer Abreu - 0.398 xwOBA, 20.0% Brl%, 76.3% Contact%, 23.3% Chase%, 22.2% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Victor Caratini - 37.5% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.954 Cold Rating

Ryan Jeffers - 34.7% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.926 Cold Rating

Christian Moore - 34.9% Whiff%, 76.2% Weak%, 0.92 Cold Rating

Colson Montgomery - 43.5% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.892 Cold Rating

Brandon Nimmo - 41.2% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.892 Cold Rating

Kyle Teel - 32.6% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.886 Cold Rating

Bryce Harper - 38.3% Whiff%, 68.6% Weak%, 0.867 Cold Rating

Jake Burger - 36.5% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.862 Cold Rating

Trea Turner - 33.0% Whiff%, 67.6% Weak%, 0.808 Cold Rating

Kyle Stowers - 28.6% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.808 Cold Rating

Today’s SP Streamer Picks

Connor Prielipp (18.0% Owned): Projected 6.01IP 2.14ER 6.28SO 1.66BB 19.21FPts

Matthew Liberatore (19.0% Owned): Projected 5.42IP 2.25ER 5.88SO 1.87BB 16.62FPts

Max Scherzer (14.0% Owned): Projected 5.67IP 2.5ER 5.33SO 2.07BB 15.4FPts

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

Josue De Paula - 34 PA, 1.222 OPS

Jake Cronenworth - 38 PA, 1.104 OPS

Cole Carrigg - 39 PA, 0.964 OPS

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 30 PA, 0.963 OPS

Randal Grichuk - 29 PA, 0.96 OPS

Walker Jenkins - 34 PA, 0.959 OPS

Brett Baty - 28 PA, 0.954 OPS

Brenton Doyle - 29 PA, 0.896 OPS

Brayan Rocchio - 28 PA, 0.887 OPS

Josh Jung - 34 PA, 0.886 OPS

Today’s Hitter Streamer Picks

Kyle Teel C (18.0% Owned): Projected 0.73R 0.17HR 0.62RBI 0.98SO 0.56BB 0.05SB 8.85FPts

Henry Bolte OF (49.0% Owned): Projected 0.68R 0.13HR 0.51RBI 1.35SO 0.41BB 0.22SB 8.56FPts

J.P. Crawford SS (2.0% Owned): Projected 0.75R 0.13HR 0.55RBI 0.98SO 0.72BB 0.05SB 8.52FPts

Austin Martin SS (2.0% Owned): Projected 0.66R 0.1HR 0.58RBI 0.72SO 0.53BB 0.15SB 8.51FPts

Vaughn Grissom 3B (9.0% Owned): Projected 0.64R 0.15HR 0.66RBI 0.68SO 0.39BB 0.06SB 8.43FPts

Lars Nootbaar RF (7.0% Owned): Projected 0.76R 0.14HR 0.56RBI 0.89SO 0.58BB 0.04SB 8.33FPts

Garrett Mitchell CF (32.0% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.12HR 0.53RBI 1.5SO 0.49BB 0.12SB 8.29FPts

Connor Norby 2B (15.0% Owned): Projected 0.7R 0.13HR 0.61RBI 1.11SO 0.36BB 0.09SB 8.21FPts

Josh Bell 1B (44.0% Owned): Projected 0.61R 0.18HR 0.66RBI 0.78SO 0.41BB 0.02SB 8.16FPts

Francisco Alvarez C (32.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.24HR 0.63RBI 1.0SO 0.32BB 0.01SB 8.15FPts