Subscribe now

Check out the latest from John Allen! Taking a look at favorable parks that some hitters will be visiting:

Two Start Streamers

Ryne Nelson

He’s probably taken in your league, but this is about as good as it gets for a two-start week against the Giants and then the Road Rockies. Must own dude right now.

Andrew Painter

He’s mostly been bad this year, but he’s one of the better options on this rough week for two start streaming. Cincinnati and Cleveland are fine matchups. And he’s not a complete disaster this year with a 13% K-BB%… although he’s been hit hard and his fastball stinks. I would not recommend. But at least he can throw a lot of different pitches with good velo on the heater. So you’re hoping this week is the one where he figures out an attack plan that has some success.

Read more

Subscribe now

Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Our free card of the day went up 2.8 units yesterday so we will always take profit and that is the goal every day.

Now we’re gonna take advantage of Justin Wrobleski today against the Angels, who strike out at a pretty crazy clip. The projection for Justin tonight is 7.3 K’s and we can get his line at 4.5. We’re going to ladder this up, take advantage of the situation, expose some units against the Angels, whose team strikes out at an incredible rate. They will have multiple guys in their lineup with above a 30% K rate this season.

Justin Wrobleski LAD O 4.5k -152 1u and O 5.5k +145 1u and O 6.5k +276 .5u

Read more

Subscribe now

Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!

The Slate Take

The Vegas tops are LAA at 8.5, HOU at 8.0, CHC@CWS at 8.5, MIL@MIN at 8.5, and NYM at 8.5, with TEX leading the slate at a 4.80 implied team total against Kai-Wei Teng. Pitcher ownership concentrates on Jacob deGrom at 37 percent and Logan Gilbert at 34 percent and then drops off a cliff. Everything between $6,300 and $8,900 on the mound is below 16 percent ownership. How you take down massive tournaments is by not playing over-owned spots and taking advantage of the lower-owned spots.

Weather

There are no real weather issues today. We’re in a pretty good spot. I think people will push to Yankees and Mets with the wind blowing out. With it being 84 degrees in Sacramento tonight, I think a lot of people flock to the A’s. We’ll talk about why I’m not going to go there. I just think they’re going to end up over-owned today.

The Pitchers I’m Playing

Read more

Subscribe now

In Park Predictors, we look at favorable matchups for hitters and pitchers based on where they are playing this week and the MLB DW Park Factors, which look at four years' worth of data for MLB ballparks.

Here’s a look at the May 18-24:

HITTERS

New York Yankees

A seven-game homestand brings AL East foes Toronto and Tampa Bay to the Bronx, where the Yankees are posting a 142 wRC+ as a team, best in MLB.

New York is also posting league bests in BB%, ISO, runs, stolen bases, and home runs while at home. Numbers are even more impressive because Yankee Stadium ranks 10th-best for left-handed home runs, 17th for right-handed home runs and 24th for runs.

Read more

Subscribe now

The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!

A complete game from Merrill Kelly in Coors, and an 0/5 from Ketel Marte. Hilarious stuff in Coors.

And the Pirates blew a six-run lead and then a three-run lead in the ninth. That really sucked. It was a super fun eight innings, and then it all went away, and they lost a heartbreaker.

The hitter of the day was Kyle Schwarber who now has 20 homers. This guy is unreal.

Nine dingers in May, and we’re halfway through it.

Sammy Sosa once hit 20 in a month, so I don’t think we’re going to see that record broken by Schwarber.

His home run rates keep improving with age…

He’s a real problem

Brandon Lowe also popped two homers in that game to bring him to 12 on the season. He’s been a great fantasy baseball 2B, leading that position in HR and RBI, and he’s achieved a .927 OPS so far.

Daylen Lile and Matt McLain both stayed very hot. Lile hit a double and a homer, McLain had a homer and a steal plus 3 RBI. They’re both getting going and have scord a whole bunch of fantasy points lately. I’d be more interesting in having Lile than McLain, but I’d consider a McLain add if you need a second baseman.

I found this site yesterday → https://boxscore.email/mlb

That does what my thing does, but way better. And it says it can e-mail it to you every morning. I signed up for it, but it didn’t work. But maybe it will tomorrow, or maybe I did something wrong?

We should put together a list of all of the great baseball resources. They have exploded in size with the AI stuff making everything so do-able. Anybody with a small amount of technical expertise can make some sick stuff now.

So let me know what other stuff you’re using! I have found Bubba & The Bloom’s notes emails very helpful. They summarize injury stuff for you a few times a week. Like I don’t think I would have realized that Clay Holmes broke a bone on a comebacker last night and will be out for awhile.

I also did an fScore update yesterday. You can find those fScores on the dashboards and on the web app. Here’s an explanation of what those are and how they work if you don’t know:

Your top minor league hitters by the fScores:

If you’re viewing them on the web app, you can either search for a player or go to a team organization filter.

I mostly use those for prospects, but they are definitely useful for MLB stuff as well.

I should probably find some way to fully incorporate them with stats and player info onto one page. But the best place to go for minor league stuff is to the Hitter Profile & Pitcher Profile tab on the Prospect Analysis Dashboard.

Find that in the Resouce Glossary here:

Trey Yesavage was awesome yesterday - 6.0IP 4H 2ER 2R 6K 3BB

The updated look:

That’s all very encouraging. Maybe some luck on the zero homers allowed so far on a 31% FB%, but a .229 xwOBA overall and a 49% Strike% with the 16.3% SwStr% shows that he’s pitching very well. Just a 19.6% Hard Hit% against. That’s wild stuff. And this slider has been pretty nasty too at 16% usage!

So he’s tough on righties with three different pitches. And those pitches are very different. Fastballs move up (aka stay flat), sliders move side to side, splitters drop down. Nasty approach there.

Against lefties, he’s confined to the heater and splitter. That will probably get him into some trouble when he’s falling behind and has to bring a fastball to a lefty. They’ll see it coming. But he’s good, and he has his whole career ahead of him. Remember, this guy was drafted in 2024.

Read more

Subscribe now

Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Happy Free Play Friday! We are going to have the whole card free today and share where we’ve been going. We’ve been incredibly hot and we get to attack one of our favorite pitchers today.

We get to attack Zach Little of the Washington Nationals. This year versus left-handed pitching in 19 innings he’s given up 11 home runs, which is a 5.21 HR/9 He’s given up a 0.422 ISO while giving up a 48.7% hard hit rate, an insane 37% fly ball rate, and a 37.9% home run fly ball rate.

Samuel Bassallo BAL O 1.5 H,R,RBI -110 1.5u and O .5 HR +450 .5u

Bassallo has been very good versus right-handed pitching this season with a.219 ISO. He’s hit four jacks already and he gets a great matchup today versus Littell. Samuel is 11th on the HR projection chart today and here is a sneak peak of the top 11

One day I hope you have someone that loves you as much as Jon’s model loves Taylor Ward home runs. That being said I’m not a massive BVP guy; however Ward has kind of smacked Zach around in a few at bats so we’re going to go after this today.

Taylor Ward BAL O .5 HR +561 .5u

The over under tracker is 106-85 this season and we have two spots we really like today and we’re going to take advantage of them.

NYY vs NYM O 6.5 -123 at Novig 1u

This is a massive savings because, to give you an idea, this is -144 at DraftKings and -145 at BetMGM. The JA tools have this projected at 9.24. It’s almost a three-run difference. That kind of EV is something we want to take advantage of.

Now there are two reasons I like this game tonight to finish out this slate:

1. At 7.5 total and this projected at 8.97, I like the spot we can get it at because we can get it for plus money.

2. 63% of the money today is on the under.

I am always a fan of fading the public.

SD vs SEA O 7.5 +119 Novig .5u

And for our last matchup today we are going to go and bet on Mr. Trey Yesavage. He has a 7.69 K Prop projection and his book line is 5.5k. And his couple starts back so far. He’s averaged a 26.3% K percentage, a 28% whiff percentage, and a 14.4 SWSTR%. His splitter has been absolutely filthy and, add in his four-seamers, so far he’s only given up a 0.77 ISO to it.

Trey Yesavage TOR O 5.5k -102 2u Fanduel


Since it’s Free Play Friday and all you degenerates love parlays so much, we’re going to work a couple parlays in here for you. These are sprinkles, just like a lotto Ticket. They’re there to have fun.

Mickey Moniak COL/Shea Langaliers ATH/Sameul Basallo BAL HR +7217 .1u DK

Trey Yesavage TOR 8+/Jack Leiter TEX 8+/Conelly Early BOS +7 Ks +8073 .1u FD

Subscribe now

Subscribe to the podcast on Spotify

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Shallow League Pitcher Targets

• Ryne Nelson, D’Backs - Just in case he got dropped in your league. Fastball usage is down, and he’s been awesome in his last three starts

• Ben Brown, Cubs - New sinker could be the fix he always needed

• Tyler Mahle, Giants - Weird season for the oft-injured starting pitcher. After an unsustainable 2.18 ERA last season, his 5.18 ERA in 2026 is very unlucky. Over the past 20 days, his 2.70 xERA is 11th in the league.

• Jared Jones, Pirates - Should be getting back in the MLB rotation in the next two weeks

• Grayson Rodriguez, Angels - The ultimate lottery ticket mixes top prospect hope with long injury history.

Deep League Pitcher Targets

• Trevor McDonald, Giants - Heavy sinker, doesn’t allow homers. Everything else is pretty questionable, but he’ll give you some QS in San Fran.

• Connor Prielipp, Twins - Another arm that might end back in AAA, but a pretty nice 18% K-BB% so far.

• Griffin Jax, Rays - Mixed results as a starter, but he has the goods to succeed in that role

• Zebby Matthews, Twins - Shaky control last season and in spring training resulted in this former hot prospect going back to Triple A. In his MLB season debut, he shut down the Marlins, allowing no runs, walking just one, and striking out seven in five innings. He might have a short MLB stint, with Taj Bradley expected back soon, being the only drawback.

• Roki Sasaki, Dodgers - Walk rate continues to fall. Pretty decent 14:4 K:BB in the last three while clearing five innings each time

Shallow League Hitter Targets

• Sam Antonacci, White Sox (2B/SS) - Speedy guy with a .380 OBP and a sneaky 11.1% Brl% so far.

• Luke Raley, Mariners (OF) - Was one of the few Seattle hitters to start off strong in 2026. He back again with five homers in his past eight games.

• Ezequiel Duran, Rangers (1B/2B/SS/OF) - Utility man is getting full-time playing time with the injuries in the Texas lineup. The still 26-year-old is playing even better his promising 2023 season (.276/.324/.443 with 14 HR and 8 SB) with a .294/.365/.480 and a walk rate of more than double his career best.

• Mark Vientos, Mets (1B/3B) - Really swinging a good bat in May and the Mets have been playing time

• Spencer Horwitz, Pirates (1B) - Hitting .286/.404/.468 over his last 94 PAs, points league value add!

• AVOID: Nasim Nunez, Nationals - Another owner in your league is going to try to get you to buy this one-trick pony. Don’t. Nunez is second in MLB with 17 stolen bases. But the rest is off the rails — .208 batting average, .233 slugging, and, of course, zero HRs.

Deep League Hitter Targets

• Jake McCarthy, Rockies (OF) - He’s hitting for a decent average, and it’s actually better on the road (.292) than at Coors (.281). Can still get stolen bases (7) and occasional power at home (2, both in Coors).

• Zack Gelof, Athletics (2B/SS) - Plate discipline gains, handful of homers already for the A’s. May stick in the lineup when Wilson returns.

• Austin Martin, Twins (OF) - Benefits in PT with Wallner demotion, OBP machine with some steals

• Zach Cole, Astros (OF) - He’s going to strike out a ton, but Houston has no one else in the outfield at the moment, so he will get strong-side platoon playing time. He has speed and pretty good power until the league catches up to him … again.

• JP Crawford, Mariners (SS) - Playing daily, more walks than strikeouts, and five homers.

• Masyn Winn, Cardinals (SS) - Hitting .293/.333/.404 in last 100 PAs, K% is way down and he can run a bit

• Braden Shewmake, Astros (SS/3B)- Former 1st-round pick of the Braves, was plucked off the Yankees’ Triple-A roster after Carlos Correa went down. He is 20th in MLB in wRC+ since his April 20 callup.

• Gage Workman, Tigers (3B) - Maybe won’t be a starter, but crushed AAA and has started hot in MLB after the call-up

Last Week’s Waiver Wire Review

Shallow League Hits

Davis Martin, White Sox: The 29-year-old is up to 50 innings of 1.62 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and striking out more than a batter an inning. The breakout is feeling more real, but his JA ERA is less encouraging at 3.61.

Brandon Marsh, Phillies: Hits keep coming with at least one in five of his past six, including a 4-for-4 performance.

Shallow League Misses

Sean Burke, White Sox: Hours after landing on our list he got blasted for six hits (including tw0 homers) that led to six earned runs in 4.1 innings.

Casey Schmitt, Giants: With prospects coming up, Schmitt has been in the lineup five of six games, but he has yet to drive in a run.

Deep League Hits

J.J. Bleday, Reds: Driven in 11 in the past week, and looks to be enjoying playing in Great American “small”Park.

Zack Gelof, Athletics: Continues to take us back to his promising rookie season in 2023. Has hits in 11 of past 12 games, four of those hits being home runs.

Deep League Misses

Tony Santillan, Reds: So much for being the Reds’ new closer. Hard to say who it will be still a week later.

Griffin Canning, Padres: After a good first start, Canning has been hot garbage since — 12 ER in six innings (two starts) and a 3.00 WHIP.

Subscribe now

Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!

Welcome to FREE CONTENT FRIDAY! Take this opportunity to peruse the tools and take advantage of the free looks. There are all kinds of things available to you on the app, let me know if you need clarification on anything.

JOIN OUR DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE HERE. $5 CONTESTS SEVERAL DAYS A WEEK! NO STRINGS ATTACHED, TOTALLY OPTIONAL TO PLAY DAILY.

Weather

We’re all green today! No rain anywhere except where we have some domes.

We have a few hot spots:

• MIL at MIN

• ARI at COL

• KC at STL

• SF at ATH

All 80+ degrees and some favorable winds.

We have a 12-game main slate with a three-game turbo slate. So we can write off the turbo slate there and fix our attention on the main. There’s a ton to dig into.

Game Data

Top Implied Totals

• Diamondbacks (6.42) vs. Kyle Freeland in Coors

• Dodgers (6.29) vs. Jack Kochanowicz in Anaheim

• Athletics (5.76) vs. Tyler Mahle in Sacramento

• Rockies (5.64) vs. Merrill Kelly in Coors

• Orioles (5.58) vs. Zack Littell in DC [TURBO SLATE]

Those are your five totals above 5.5. Nobody else is above 5.1 as things stand right now.

The Snakes, Athletics, and Orioles are of most interest to me as offenses who are boosted way up from their usual production.

Lowest Implied Totals

• Mets (3.05) vs. Cam Schlittler in Queens

• Angels (3.12) vs. Snell in Anaheim

• Padres (3.28) vs. Hncock in Seattle

• Red Sox (3.50) vs. Strider in Atlanta

Biggest Pitcher Favorites

• Blake Snell (-232) vs. Angels [Jack Koch]

• Cam Schlittler (-157) vs. Mets [Clay Holmes]

• Spencer Strider (-156) vs. Red Sox [Connelly Early]

• Edward Cabrera (-149) vs. White Sox [Sean Burke]

Pitchers

There are not a ton of studs on the board for this one. So the ownerhsip shuld be spread out and we’ll want to really dive in on the available options to zoom in on the top handful of options.

Blake Snell ($8,700) at Angels

He is the top projected arm in my model and on The Bat X. But it’s only his second start of the year, and we know about Snell’s ability to struggle for stretches, especially at the beginning of his season.

In his first start, he threw 77 pitches with a 20.8% SwStr%. That was double good news since he’s already built up to 80+ and he was getting whiffs on the curveball and slider and changeup like normal.

The ceiling is sky high for Snell, especially as such a huge favorite against a bad team. But Snell in cash after making just one start?? That’s a tough sell.

Tanner Bibee ($7,400) vs. Reds

The Reds are on the road here after scoring 15 runs at home yesterday. I suppose it’s a pretty short flight from Cincy to Cleveland, so we don’t have to worry much about that. I assume they flew… do any teams take the bus? Certainly, you wouldn’t fly from Pittsburgh to Cleveland or Philly to Boston? Or would you? I don’t know.

But we shouldn’t change our expectations even an inch just because they scored a bunch of runs yesterday. That’s not how baseball works.

The Reds are slashing .221/.286/.364 on the raod this year with a 24.3% K% and a .316 xwOBA. It’s a good matchup for Bibee, who generated 20 whiffs last time out. But again, we shouldn’t change anything because of the last game. Bibee has a 23.2% K% this year, which is fine, and a 9.3% BB%, which is about par for the course this year. He’s given up a non-awful 7.7% Brl% and a high 23 HR/FB.

For $7,400, I think he’s in cash consideration. It’s a low price.

Spencer Strider ($9,200) vs. BOS

Strider and Snell may be the keys to this slate. Strider has piled up 29 whiffs in two outings and his fastball increased in velo from his first start (94.6) to his second (96.4). The heater, though, has a Stuff+ of 88.6, and the slider is at 94.9. That’s a little bit concerning since we don’t have much data to work with on Strider this year. Even if you ignore the Coors start, it was a 95.7 on the fastball and 92.3 on the slider against the Dodgers.

Maybe the edge on this slate will be the fade of Snell and Strider. Neither guy is at all safe. Snell is projected for slate-leading ownership (30%), and Strider is 4th (18%).

As always, if you fade a guy with this kind of upside and they crush, you’re not winning anything. But if these ownerships are right, I’d definitely like to be off of those two in tourneys, no doubt about that at all.

Cam Schlittler ($10,500) vs. NYM

The price is through the roof now. I have him as the #4 projected SP, and The Bat is only at 3rd (behind Snell and Bibee, which is wild).

Schlittler has passed every test with flying colors this year, and this Mets lineup has been really bad this year. But they do have Soto healthy, Semien warming up, Bichette with a lot of bad luck on his card this year, and some young hitters looking pretty nice in Ewing and Benge.

But maybe that’s doing too much. Schlittler has a 25% K-BB% with a .253 xwOBA allowed. He handles righties and lefties with no problem. There’s nothing you can really critique on the guy besides the price being at a career high.

And maybe we get lower ownership as people flock to Snell/Strider. I feel a lot better about Schlittler. I think he’s a cash play, and definitely someone to use in tourneys.

Jack Leiter ($7,100) at HOU

This is my favorite tourney option of the night. Leiter has a 14.2% SwStr%, a 26.2% K%, and an improved 9.6% BB%. He has gone for 8+ strikeouts three times this year, but some bad luck (.315 BABIP, 17% HR/FB) has harmed him. The Astros are definitely beatable, and if Leiter has his command, he’s electric. The fastball (13.5% SwStr%), changeup (17.2% SwStr%), and slider (17.9% SwStr%) are all whiff pitches. There’s the downside that he’s given up an 11.9% Brl% with three different starts with 3+ walks. It can go very poorly, but I love the ceiling for this price.

The matchup is probably a good one all things considered. The Astros have a .331 xwOBA with a .743 OPS this year, and so much of that damage comes from one bat - Yordan Alvarez. Here’s their team xwOBA rolling chart:

So they’ve been below average for much of the year. I like Leiter a lot. Probably still not for cash, but he’ll be my most-rostered guys in tourneys.

Joe Ryan ($8,600) vs. MIL

Ryan’s problem has long been the long ball, and the Brewers haven’t done much long ball hitting this year with just 27 homers on a team .359 SLG. This game being in Minnesota is good for Ryan, but we did mention the hot temperatures there. The Brewers have Chourio, Yelich, and Vaughn all back in play, but they’ve all kinda struggled.

The problem the Brewers present is plate discipline. They have a 20.8% K% with a 10.9% BB% this year, so the K ceiling might be capped for Ryan. The price is also about right… so I’m not convicted in either direction on Ryan.

Edward Cabrera ($7,900) at CWS

The guy is never consistent, but he’s been throwing a lot more strikes in his last three starts with a 22:4 K:BB in those three. The problem is that he’s suddenly started giving up homers (seven allowed in his last four starts). I don’t think that will keep up since it’s never been a big issue for him in the past.

The White Sox strike out a ton, so it’s a good spot to use E-Cab in tourneys.

Connelly Early ($7,500) at ATL

This guy might be pitching to stay in the Majors tonight. The Red Sox are going to have to take somebody out of this rotation with Gray back and Crochet returning soon.

Early has given them good results in the box score with a 3.16 ERA. But his K-BB% is 12% and he’s only completed six innings twice.

For tonight, I think I’m pretty anti-Early. The Braves are tough, and Early’s lack of whiffs makes me pretty nervous about him. He’s thrown 90+ pitches just four times, so they’re usually trying to end his outing around 85-90, it seems. I think we’ll be fine with a Connelly fade tonight.

Logan Henderson ($8,500) vs. MIN

The Bat X really hates Henderson here, giving him just an eight point projection. He’s thrown just 76 and 74 pitches in his two starts back, so that’s the main reason. I think that’s enough for a fade at $8,500. He’s good, but probably doesn’t have enough ceiling to play on this slate.

Spencer Arrighetti ($8,200) vs. TEX

Good matchup against the Rangers. But I don’t think Arrighetti is good. He has a 46% Strike% (below league average) and a 39% Ball% (three points above league average which is very bad). His fastball has been crushed and he has a 9:8 K:BB in the last two. The price is wrong on Arrighetti, so he’s out.

Emerson Hancock ($8,400) vs. SD

After a 14:0 K:BB start on May 2nd, he went for a 4:3 K:BB against the White Sox last time out. He has a beautiful 22% K-BB% this year and his fastball has been one of the best in the league.

The Padres have seen him once this year already and only managed four hits and two runs in six innings.

But Hancock relies heavily on the unique release point, so it can’t be good when a team has already seen him pretty recently. I’m off Hancock tonight.

Dustin May ($6,200) vs. KC

Here’s the PUNT play of the night. The price for $6,200 against a below-average Royals offense is too low. He’s given up no more than three runs in each of his last six outings and has 19+ fantasy points in five of his last seven.

The downside is always single-digit points. He’s gone for negatives twice (his first starts of the year) and has been under ten points in two of his last three.

But he’s a six-inning machine and has a max of two walks this year. The batted balls have to go at guys, because he gets very few outs with the K (18% this year). But he’s in the player pool for sure as a salary saver with 15+ point ability.

Andrew Abbott ($6,600) vs. CLE

Abbott has 19, 16, and 25 points in his last three starts. But even during that spell, it’s a 14:7 K:BB. His season K% is 16%. So the upside doesn’t seem to be there. But we should say that he’s very capable of having good starts, we’ve seen a ton of them from him in his career, and it’s possible he’s fixed whatever was going wrong early on in the year.

It’s a plus that the game isn’t in Cincy, and the Guardians offense is far from impressive.

I think that’s pretty much everybody who needs talked about.

CASH POOL: Schlittler, Snell, Bibee, Ryan

GPP POOL: All the above + Strider, Leiter, Cabrera, Abbott, May

Team Offense

Let’s look at the top projections for the 1-6 hitters, since most of our DFS plays are from the top two-thirds of the lineup.

Highest projection:

Highest value:

We haven’t mentioned the Giants yet. They’re a bad offense which hasn’t scored many runs this year, so their implication is always pretty low.

But it’s a great spot for them in Sacramento against Aaron Civale. Possibly the best spot of the year for the Giants offense, and the prices are lowww.

PRIMARY STACKS

• D’Backs vs. Freeland

  • Ketel Marte $5,700

  • Corbin Carroll $6,200

  • Geraldo Perdomo $4,900

  • Nolan Arenado $4,000

• Athletics vs. Mahle

  • Nick Kurtz $5,700

  • Shea Langeliers $5,900

  • Tyler Soderstrom $4,400

  • Brent Rooker $4,900

  • Carlos Cortes $4,200

  • Henry Bolte $2,700

  • Zack Gelof $3,600

• Dodgers vs. Kochanowicz

  • Shohei Ohtani $6,400

    • pretty good to get Ohtani back in the lineup here!

  • Mookie Betts $4,400

  • Freddie Freeman $4,800

  • Kyle Tucker $5,400

  • Will Smith $3,900

  • Max Muncy $4,600

  • Andy Pages $5,200

• Rockies vs. Kelly

  • Edouard Julien $4,700

  • Mickey Moniak $5,500

  • Hunter Goodman $4,900

  • TJ Rumfield $3,800

SECONDARY STACKS

• Giants vs. Civale

  • Heliot Ramos $3,500

  • Rafael Devers $4,200

  • Bryce Eldridge $2,500

  • Willy Adames $3,200

• Padres vs. Hancock

  • Jackson Merrill $4,300

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. $4,600

  • Manny Machado $4,100

• Royals vs. May

  • Maikel Garcia $4,400

  • Bobby Witt Jr. $5,900

  • Vinnie Pasquantino $4,000

  • Sal Perez $2,900

Hitters by Position

I’ll give you at least two expensive plays and at least two value plays at each position that the projections plus my own takes like the most.

Catcher

• Langeliers $5,900 vs. Mahle

• Goodman $4,900 vs. Kelly

• Mack $2,200 vs. Scholtens

• Perez $2,900 vs. May

First Base

• Ohtani $6,400 vs. Kochanowicz

• Kurtz $5,700 vs. Mahle

• Devers $4,200 vs. Civale

• Vaughn $2,800 vs. Ryan

• Norby $2,700 vs. Scholtens

Second Base

• Ketel Marte $5,700 vs. Freeland [lock play in Coors vs. LHP]

• Tyler Freeman $3,700 vs. Kelly

• Richie Palacios $3,100 vs. Junk

• Edouard Julien $4,700 vs. Kelly

Third Base

• Caminero $5,000 vs. Junk

• Arenado $4,000 vs. Freeland

• Norby $2,700 vs. Scholtens

• Gelof $3,600 vs. Mahle

Shortstop

• Witt Jr. $5,900 vs. May

• Betts $4,400 vs. Kochanowicz

• Adames $3,200 vs. Civale

• Perdomo $4,900 vs. Freeland

• Ha-Seong Kim $3,000 vs. Early

Outfield

• Ohtani $6,400 vs. Kochanowicz

• Carroll $6,200 vs. Freeland

• Rooker $4,900 vs. Mahle

• Moniak $5,500 vs. Kelly

• Alvarez $6,300 vs. Leiter

• Soderstrom $4,400 vs. Mahle

• Bolte $2,700 vs. Mahle

• Zach Cole $2,700 vs. Leiter

• Sheets $2,800 vs. Hancock

• Collins $2,800 vs. May

• Benson $2,400 vs. Bibee

• Osuna $2,400 vs. Arrighetti

That’s it for the DFS slate. I might be back with some prop betting stuff, and Trevor certainly will be. But I wanted to start getting the DFS stuff out earlier when possible.

Subscribe now

The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!

Made this thing yesterday with a newspaper feel box score for each of yesterday’s games. Here’s what it looks like:

Maybe you can get a scented candle that smells like newspaper and light it while you pull that page up every morning. The problem is, like usual, that it doesn’t look good on a mobile phone. You have to do horizontal scrolling, which is annoying. But it looks great when you have a wide screen, and I think a small subset of you will really enjoy that.

You’re welcome, Mitch W. I did it for you specifically.

Free Content Friday

Hit the web app and type the password “Friday” and get your hands on the projections and tools that are available daily to PRO subscribers. If you like it, consider an upgrade to the pro membership for the rest of the year. If you’re on the fence but the price is a little bit too high, reach out, we can work something out!

Yesterdays Pitchers

You know I’m going to talk about Ben Brown first.

→ 65 pitches, 4.0IP 1H 0ER 0R 7K 1BB

He cruised through four innings against the Braves of all teams!

26 curves, 25 four-seamers, eight changes, six sinkers. That’s low sinker usage, but I guess he didn’t feel that he needed it. The curveball is so insane. I guess this isn’t the best example because it was kind of a garbage pitch, but it got a swing from Olson who trotted down to first in shame.

I would not be surprised if Olson retires today.

People are doubting CHA BOY on Ben Brown. I tried to tell my league in our slack, and three people laughed at me!

Laughing at little old me. Just a guy trying to make a living and feed my children with a moderately successful fantasy baseball publication. This is truly the fruit of the depraved heart and mind of man.

I will continue to fight the good fight, to press on for the prize.

But the question remains. Is Ben Brown being built up? Or is this a stopgap to getting Boyd back?

So far, it looks like he’s being built up. 25 to 46 to 65. That’s +21 each time. So in five starts, he’ll be throwing 170 pitches. It’s science. Brown’s last two starts while working 4+ innings:

I don’t want go be overly optimistic or be hyperbolic, but The Brown Bear is clearly going to win multiple Cy Youngs in his career.

Do they call him “The Brown Bear”? Obviously, they should. A Cub is a bear. Maybe even they could go with The Brown Baby Bear. Go ahead, Cubs fans, I won’t even ask for royalties.

I did coin the term Marte Partay for Starling Marte 14 years ago, and never saw a DIME.

I had this internship with TribLIVE Radio (RIP) in Pittsburgh when I was in college, and I came up with that hashtag (hashtags were big on Twitter back, then, believe me) when Starling Marte got the call up to the bigs. He homered in his first AB and the hashtag trended.

And now I see that the Reds have ran with the ball!

And nobody knows it was me. But it was me. It was me, guys.

But I don’t need money, I’m happy to continue to make my living turning $1 into $1.80 on DraftKings head-to-heads.

Zebby Matthews - 7.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 5K 1BB

This was Matthews’ best start of the year, and his first one in the MLB at that!

He was trending up in the minors, but nobody expected him to keep that line tilted upward after getting to the big leagues again.

Under the hood, it wasn’t dominant:

The fastball velo is not what it was last year. Just 94.8 last night with a 5% SwStr% and a 94.8 Stuff+. But it worked. And the curve/change/slider/cutter were mixed in well. Last year, when he was booty-hole:

Still a pretty good mix, but he didn’t use the curveball very much. I would imagine that he went into the offseason looking to make some changes because he had no success in the Majors. I don’t like the velo being down, obviously, and it’s probably still a longshot that he’ll develop into a stud pitcher. But this was a positive debut and should certainly get him a few more looks in the Major League rotation with the current state of the Twins rotation.

Emmet Sheehan - 6.0IP 2H 2ER 2R 6K 2BB

Sheehan led the day with 19 whiffs. It was a soft matchup with the Giants, I’ll grant you that, but Sheehan has been really good this year by a number of metrics.

→ 28% K%
→ 7% BB%
→ 16.5% SwStr%
→ 34.7% Ball%

He has a 4.54 ERA with a 3.16 SIERA. But a .314 BABIP and a ridiculous 26% HR/FB have kept him in bondage. That’s the league’s third-highest HR/FB among starters:

I think this dude is an ace.

Fastball has been very good, the slider is a wipeout pitch with an super-elite 55% Strike%. That’s the best mark in the league on a slider:

If you have Sheehan, you have an ace. The only better pitch in the league is probably Ben Brown.

Chris Sale - 6.0IP 5H 0ER 1R 8K 2BB

This one came in another tough matchup against the Cubs. He has a 35:7 K:BB with a 1.04 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in his last four starts, and that’s in four pretty tough matchups (PHI, at COL, LAD, CHC).

Chase Burns - 6.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 7K 2BB

Burns keeps mowing them down. He now has a 1.87 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP on.

The 18% K-BB% isn’t elite, but look at the GB% at 47%! It was 37% last year! The slider has somehow put up a 65% GB%.

He’s throwing it further down zone this year.

So it’s high four-seamers and low-and-away sliders to righties. He still throws the slider to lefties, but it’s less at 29% usage (47% vs. RHB). But he replaces some of those with changeups, and that pitch has a 60% GB% to lefties. I’m definitely not buying him as a ground ball pitcher. It’s the same attack plan pitch-mix wise as last year, but it seems like he’s improved the changeup and the slider and just has better in-zone command this season. Looks like Burns is healthy and pitching as well as we all knew he could.

Kyle Harrison - 5.0IP 5H 0ER 0R 7K 0BB

Five more scoreless innings from Harrison to drop his ERA to 2.10 on the season.

He hasn’t gotten deep into starts much this year. He threw 99 pitches yesterday, a good sign, but he was inefficient and only able to get 15 outs with those pitches.

He also looks pretty studly, and not many people saw that coming. The fastball is elite without having a ton of velo. A 128 MLB DW grade on the pitch.

I still have to say he’s a sell-high for the reasons I keep saying over and over again. He is too dependent on that fastball and the secondary stuff doesn’t have very good strike numbers. So if the league can adjust and figure out the fastball, he doesn’t have much to fall back on.

The Brewers are one of the sharpest orgs in the league, that’s clear now. They continually develop players who punch above their weight. And they’re getting the most out of Harrison after the Giants and Red Sox both sort of failed to get his stuff working.

Ranger Suarez - 5.33IP 4H 0ER 0R 8K 1BB

Jesus Luzardo - 6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 4K 1BB

These two lefties squared off and were both great. I don’t have much to add besides saying you should just keep starting both and learn to live with the clunkers they throw in there from time to time.

Landen Roupp - 5.33IP 6H 4ER 4R 7K 2BB

Another big strikeout night for Roupp, but the Dodgers put 8 H+BB on him with four runs. I think that’s fine. The Dodgers are a brutal matchup for anybody, and the Giants have to feel pretty much fine with that line from him. They lost the game, so I guess maybe they don’t, but Roupp is a 12-team start for me. He’s in the top ten in xBA allowed:

We’re nine starts in now. Dudes just can’t get the barrel on the guys’ mix.

Foster Griffin - 4.33IP 7H 9ER 9R 7K 3BB

There it was… the Reds took his 2.12 ERA and turned it into 3.53. He’s now given up a .367 xwOBA on the cutter (31% usage) and a .399 mark on the four-seamer (16% usage). He throws a lot of different pitches at you, so you can’t often sit on a pitch, but his stuff is all very hittable.

Mike Burrows - 5.67IP 8H 7ER 7R 4K 3BB

The 4:3 K:BB drops his K-BB% to 13%. So it’s not looking good. I think we have enough data now to say that it’s not happening for the guy.

Everybody glazed the Astros pitching development after that 2016-2023 run. But maybe that was just because they had prime Verlander, prime Cole, and prime Framber Valdez for those years.

A lot of front offices get credit for just having really good players. Which I guess is to their credit. But we can’t give the Pirates credit for Paul Skenes being an ace, can we? I think I could’ve drafted that guy and just said “Okay go ahead” and he would’ve been an MLB stud. But maybe I’m wrong about that. It’s impossible to know.

Michael McGreevy - 6.0IP 5H 1ER 1R 3K 1BB

mmmk. Whatever, man! He gave up an immediate dong to Nick Kurtz and I thought the walls were finally starting to crumble, bu then he ripped off a quality start and kept his ERA at 2.38 with a 0.95 WHIP.

I’m still not going to pick the guy up or tell anybody he’s a start. I refuse. His K-BB% is 13%, his BABIP is .203… it can’t go on like this.

Braxton Garrett - 1.33IP 4H 5ER 5R 3K 5BB

Robby Snelling is probably heading for Tommy John, so they pulled up Garrett and he got trucked. He’s not a good pitcher, that much is pretty clear to me.

Before his injuries, he was one of the game’s lowest walk guys. He would throw strikes. But he never got whiffs. This year, the walk rate is 15% (including the AAA time), so it seems the injury or a change in approach has zapped the elite walk rate. Last night:

A bad sinker, a so-so slider. Don’t use Garrett.

The takeaway now is about how long they’ll wait to get Thomas White into the fold. He’s their best pitching prospect, even better than Snelling. They probably don’t want him to throw many innings this year (90 last year). He pitched in AAA last night and wasn’t good (two homers, 3:2 K:BB), so I’m not thinking the promotion in imminent. But his stuff is sick, and he’ll be a big part of their rotation in the future.

Given the innings and the sudden lack of performance in AAA (13, 2, and 2 fantasy points in his last three), he’s not a stash candidate in your redraft leagues right now.

But you never know! One more injury or another Garrett blow-up could get them desperate enough to bring him up and see how the stuff works in the bigs.

Chase Dollander - 1.0IP 5H 3ER 3R 0K 1BB

He’s a clean cut now. He’s been bad, and he got hurt yesterday leaving in the second inning with an arm injury. Even if he’s fine, it looks like the hot start to the season was fake.

Nolan McLean - 7.0IP 6H 3ER 3R 7K 3BB

Pretty good stuff from McLean again. Not his best, but you’ll take that start every time. He’s a unicorn of sorts. Eight pitchers have 60+ strikeouts this year. He’s one of them, but he is way behind the rest of the group in whiffs:

64 strikeouts, 91 whiffs. Pretty incredible stuff. But that speaks to the movement of his pitches and how often he just straight up fools dudes. Getting strikes without a swing, that’s a good thing to be able to do.

Kris Bubic - 4.0IP 5H 5ER 5R 4K 3BB

The command is a problem for him. He has a 38% Ball% with a 12.6% BB%. And he’s not an elite strikeout pitcher either (24.6% K%, 12.2% SwStr%). I kinda just don’t think he’s very good.

Hitters

from the new box score page:

JJ Bleday

More walks than strikeouts with six bombs now on a 16% Brl%.

Must-own player, clearly.

Matt McLain

He hasn’t been good, but he’s probably been better than you think.

→ .234 xBA
→ .322 xwOBA
→ 7.8% Brl%
→ 22% K%
→ 12% BB%
→ 16% SB Att%

That’s a strong gain in plate discipline (29% K%, 9.5% BB% last year). So maybe McLain can have a half-decent season at the plate from here on out.

Yordan Alvarez

He had been struggling in May, but three hits with a bomb will clean that up.

Ryan O’Hearn

He had been struggling for a couple of weeks, but two bombs in the last two days bring him back up to an .845 OPS with seven homers and a nice .363 xwOBA. He’s a professional hitter, and the Pirates are getting their money’s worth so far after making him their first multi-year free agent sign in like ten years or whatever it was.

His home run rate at 4.0% is the best of his career. He’s air pulling at 16%, a good number, and he’s always been a pretty consistent batting average and OBP contributor.

Austin Martin

The story with this guy is a high walk rate (17%). He does not like to swing the bat (36% Swing%). But a 2.3% Brl% with a 100.8 EV90 shows that he doesn’t have power. But he does have a 22% attempt rate with that high .454 OBP, and that’s turned into seven steals. So he’s doing plenty of things to like for our OBP/points leagues.

Luke Raley

He’s a terror on right-handed pitching with a .415 xwOBA this year. He’s 12th in the league with that xwOBA vs. RHP.

Marcus Semien

Will he get going to help out the Mets? He’s a known slow starter:

In May so far: .250/.313/.409, 11.4% Brl%, 19% K%, 8% BB%, .367 xwOBA

Looking a lot better! He has five steals with a decent 15% attempt rate.

Gage Workman

In the minors this year: .358/.413/.590, 4 HR, 12 SB

That got him the call-up to the Tigers big league club, and he’s hit two homers with a 1.455 OPS through 11 PAs. Probably nothing to do about that. He’s 26 with a career minor league .782 OPS. This is probably just a hot start driven by variance, but he made the leaderboard yesterday so I figured we should mention him.

Other Dudes

• AJ Ewing homered. He now has a triple, a homer, and a steal in just three games. He is super fast and has shown above-average bat speed and a 110.5 max EV through these three games. He’s a highly touted prospect with elite plate discipline (more walks than strikeouts in the minors this year, 19% K%, 12% BB% last year). He homered just three times all of last year (124 GP), so we don’t expect homers. But maybe he’s developed on that front because he already has shown us the ability to hit the ball hard this year.

• Jordan Walker: Homered again. He hasn’t been doing a ton of that since that torrid first few weeks. But the K% has ticked down under 28% now, the GB% remains very good (36%), and he has a .387 xwOBA with a .279 xBA and a super-elite 110.5 EV90. Only a dozen hitters have EV90s on fly balls above 108, and he’s one of them.

• Zack Gelof: The plate discipline gains he showed in the minors have carried over to some extent in the Majors. He has a nice 23.5% K%, but a bad 76% Zone-Contact%. A 10.5% Brl% with a very high 23% Air Pull%, though. And he’s a guy who will steal some bags. Not as many as before (5 steals, 13% Attempt% this year including the minors), but he’s a much better player this year, it would seem.

One more pitcher shout out: Aaron Ashby. He leads the league in wins! And he’s really found a homer as a long man for the Brewers out of the bullpen. Look at these SwStr%:

Three pitches above 20%. I’ve rarely seen anything like that. 97mph sinkers and then 83mph curves and 85mph sliders. Sick stuff. The wins thing is random, and that’s where he’s getting most of his fantasy value from, so I don’t think he’s a standard league add, but man he’s been dirty! He has more strikeouts than Framber Valdez, Logan Webb, and Ranger Suarez!

There you go! I feel like this has been a fantastic week in the daily notes. I’m having a lot of fun, and I hope you’re enjoying them in one way or another. Enjoy the rest of free content Friday!

Pitcher Reports

Yesterdays Pitcher Debuts

Zebby Matthews (MIN): 7.0IP, 4H, 0ER, 5SO, 1BB

Braxton Garrett (MIA): 1.33IP, 4H, 5ER, 3SO, 5BB

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. Emmet Sheehan

2. Chase Burns

3. Kyle Harrison

4. Ben Brown

5. Chris Sale

6. Ranger Suarez

7. Jesus Luzardo

8. Foster Griffin

9. Zebby Matthews

10. Mike Burrows

11. Anthony Kay

12. Landen Roupp

13. Nolan McLean

14. Luis Castillo

15. Michael McGreevy

16. Braxton Garrett

17. Jacob Lopez

18. Kris Bubic

19. Griffin Canning

20. Keider Montero

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Chase Burns (vs. WSH): 29.1 Points

2. Zebby Matthews (vs. MIA): 26.75 Points

3. Kyle Harrison (vs. SD): 26.25 Points

4. Chris Sale (vs. CHC): 25.3 Points

5. Ranger Suarez (vs. PHI): 24.99 Points

6. Emmet Sheehan (vs. SF): 23.1 Points

7. Nolan McLean (vs. DET): 22.35 Points

8. Ben Brown (vs. ATL): 21.8 Points

9. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. HOU): 18.56 Points

10. Jesus Luzardo (vs. BOS): 18.5 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 19 Whiffs (98 Pitches)

2. Chase Burns (CIN): 18 Whiffs (95 Pitches)

3. Kyle Harrison (MIL): 17 Whiffs (99 Pitches)

4. Chris Sale (ATL): 16 Whiffs (100 Pitches)

5. Landen Roupp (SF): 15 Whiffs (105 Pitches)

6. Jesus Luzardo (PHI): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)

7. Foster Griffin (WSH): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)

8. Mike Burrows (HOU): 12 Whiffs (102 Pitches)

9. Ranger Suarez (BOS): 11 Whiffs (76 Pitches)

10. Tanner Gordon (COL): 11 Whiffs (69 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Tanner Gordon (COL): 55.1 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%

2. Kyle Harrison (MIL): 52.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%

3. Ben Brown (CHC): 52.3 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%

4. Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 51.0 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%

5. Foster Griffin (WSH): 50.0 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%

6. Ranger Suarez (BOS): 50.0 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%

7. Chris Sale (ATL): 50.0 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%

8. Chase Burns (CIN): 49.5 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%

9. Nolan McLean (NYM): 48.4 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%

10. Luis Castillo (SEA): 46.3 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%

11. Jesus Luzardo (PHI): 45.7 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%

12. Zebby Matthews (MIN): 44.6 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%

13. Anthony Kay (CWS): 44.3 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%

14. Jacob Lopez (OAK): 43.7 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%

15. Kris Bubic (KC): 43.5 Strike%, 41.2 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Zebby Matthews: 83 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.95 POUT

2. Michael McGreevy: 74 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.11 POUT

3. Ranger Suarez: 76 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.75 POUT

4. Nolan McLean: 93 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.89 POUT

5. Keider Montero: 70 Pitches, 14 Outs, 5.0 POUT

6. Carmen Mlodzinski: 76 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.07 POUT

7. Anthony Kay: 97 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.39 POUT

8. Jesus Luzardo: 92 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.41 POUT

9. Ben Brown: 65 Pitches, 12 Outs, 5.42 POUT

10. Emmet Sheehan: 98 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.44 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Ranger Suarez’s FC velo (13 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 89.4

Ranger Suarez’s FF velo (13 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 92.9

Carmen Mlodzinski’s SI velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.6

Carmen Mlodzinski’s FF velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.1

Landen Roupp’s FC velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 87.4

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Carmen Mlodzinski’s FS usage (34.2%) up 23.8 points

Cody Bolton’s FC usage (33.9%) up 12.8 points

Griffin Canning’s SI usage (14.1%) up 11.7 points

Kris Bubic’s SI usage (19.0%) up 10.6 points

Luis Castillo’s CH usage (22.2%) up 10.7 points

Mike Burrows’s SI usage (21.6%) up 13.0 points

Ron Marinaccio’s FF usage (65.4%) up 19.3 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Adrian Houser Sinker: +23.5%

Kyle Bradish Slider: -21.4%

Slade Cecconi Sinker: +19.5%

George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -18.2%

Andrew Abbott Sweeper: +16.3%

Lance McCullers Jr. Sinker: -14.0%

Shane McClanahan Slider: -13.3%

Roki Sasaki Split-Finger: +12.7%

Noah Cameron Slider: +12.7%

Anthony Kay Cutter: +12.4%

Carmen Mlodzinski Curveball: -12.1%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Ricky Vanasco - 30.0 RISP H%, 0.4 BABIP, 33.0 HR/FB, 168.0 Luck Score

Jake Irvin - 44.0 RISP H%, 0.39 BABIP, 20.0 HR/FB, 168.0 Luck Score

Gavin Williams - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.444 BABIP, 17.0 HR/FB, 168.0 Luck Score

Matt Waldron - 46.0 RISP H%, 0.391 BABIP, 18.0 HR/FB, 166.0 Luck Score

Framber Valdez - 35.0 RISP H%, 0.362 BABIP, 27.0 HR/FB, 165.0 Luck Score

Griffin Canning - 40.0 RISP H%, 0.452 BABIP, 17.0 HR/FB, 162.0 Luck Score

Logan Webb - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.375 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 161.0 Luck Score

Kyle Freeland - 22.0 RISP H%, 0.433 BABIP, 36.0 HR/FB, 160.0 Luck Score

Chase Dollander - 38.0 RISP H%, 0.333 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 158.0 Luck Score

Edward Cabrera - 19.0 RISP H%, 0.444 BABIP, 60.0 HR/FB, 157.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Eduardo Rodriguez - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.15 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 16.0 Luck Score

Jacob Misiorowski - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.188 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 22.0 Luck Score

Shane McClanahan - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.2 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 25.0 Luck Score

Michael Wacha - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.128 BABIP, 9.0 HR/FB, 30.0 Luck Score

Michael McGreevy - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.19 BABIP, 8.0 HR/FB, 35.0 Luck Score

Chase Burns - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.174 BABIP, 10.0 HR/FB, 38.0 Luck Score

Cam Schlittler - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.273 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 43.0 Luck Score

Ryne Nelson - 10.0 RISP H%, 0.152 BABIP, 10.0 HR/FB, 44.0 Luck Score

Bryce Elder - 11.0 RISP H%, 0.211 BABIP, 7.0 HR/FB, 46.0 Luck Score

Kyle Leahy - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.276 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 46.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jacob Misiorowski - 91 TBF, 38.7% CSW%

Shohei Ohtani - 79 TBF, 35.2% CSW%

Gavin Williams - 110 TBF, 35.0% CSW%

Cristopher Sanchez - 83 TBF, 34.4% CSW%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 72 TBF, 34.2% CSW%

Sean Burke - 70 TBF, 33.6% CSW%

Jesus Luzardo - 91 TBF, 33.4% CSW%

Shane McClanahan - 79 TBF, 33.4% CSW%

Kyle Harrison - 83 TBF, 33.2% CSW%

Braxton Ashcraft - 75 TBF, 32.9% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jacob Misiorowski - 91 TBF, 41.8% K%

Kyle Harrison - 83 TBF, 36.1% K%

Davis Martin - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%

Emmet Sheehan - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%

Chris Sale - 101 TBF, 34.7% K%

Paul Skenes - 97 TBF, 34.0% K%

Shohei Ohtani - 79 TBF, 31.6% K%

Parker Messick - 92 TBF, 31.5% K%

Jesus Luzardo - 91 TBF, 30.8% K%

Will Warren - 93 TBF, 30.1% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jacob Misiorowski - 91 TBF, 36.3% K-BB%

Paul Skenes - 97 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%

Davis Martin - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%

Emmet Sheehan - 89 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%

Kyle Harrison - 83 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%

Jacob deGrom - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%

Chris Sale - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%

Jesus Luzardo - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%

Shohei Ohtani - 79 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%

Parker Messick - 92 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Cristopher Sanchez - 83 TBF, 63.0% GB%

Jack Kochanowicz - 78 TBF, 59.3% GB%

Michael King - 93 TBF, 59.0% GB%

Andre Pallante - 95 TBF, 58.5% GB%

Clay Holmes - 72 TBF, 58.3% GB%

Landen Roupp - 91 TBF, 58.2% GB%

Max Fried - 84 TBF, 57.9% GB%

Kyle Bradish - 90 TBF, 57.4% GB%

Kris Bubic - 94 TBF, 55.2% GB%

Zac Gallen - 83 TBF, 54.2% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Chris Sale - 101 TBF, 34.7 K%, 6.9 BB%, 45.6% GB%

Cristopher Sanchez - 83 TBF, 28.9 K%, 4.8 BB%, 63.0% GB%

Davis Martin - 74 TBF, 35.1 K%, 4.1 BB%, 44.2% GB%

Edward Cabrera - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 5.5 BB%, 48.9% GB%

Emerson Hancock - 80 TBF, 27.5 K%, 6.2 BB%, 48.1% GB%

Emmet Sheehan - 89 TBF, 34.8 K%, 4.5 BB%, 46.2% GB%

Jesus Luzardo - 91 TBF, 30.8 K%, 4.4 BB%, 52.6% GB%

Parker Messick - 92 TBF, 31.5 K%, 6.5 BB%, 47.4% GB%

Paul Skenes - 97 TBF, 34.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 46.0% GB%

Ryan Weathers - 65 TBF, 27.7 K%, 7.7 BB%, 54.8% GB%

Shane McClanahan - 79 TBF, 29.1 K%, 5.1 BB%, 46.2% GB%

Shohei Ohtani - 79 TBF, 31.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 48.9% GB%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 72 TBF, 27.8 K%, 6.9 BB%, 46.8% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Jacob Misiorowski - +5.7% CSW%, -4.4 BB%

Gavin Williams - +7.1% CSW%, -7.3 BB%

Framber Valdez - +2.0% CSW%, -4.1 BB%

Davis Martin - +4.3% CSW%, -3.7 BB%

Andre Pallante - +3.4% CSW%, -2.2 BB%

Sean Burke - +6.2% CSW%, -5.0 BB%

Tanner Gordon - +6.0% CSW%, -2.7 BB%

Nathan Eovaldi - +6.6% CSW%, -3.3 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

Garrett Mitchell (MIL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Luke Raley (SEA) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Mark Vientos (NYM) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Hardest Hit Balls

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 113.4mph - double

Nick Kurtz (OAK) - 111.8mph - home_run

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.7mph - home_run

Jarren Duran (BOS) - 110.7mph - field_out

A.J. Ewing (NYM) - 110.5mph - home_run

Jordan Walker (STL) - 110.5mph - field_out

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 110.4mph - home_run

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 109.7mph - double

Henry Bolte (OAK) - 109.4mph - single

Nick Kurtz (OAK) - 109.2mph - None

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Mark Vientos - 62 PA, 0.354 wOBA, 0.491 xwOBA, 0.137 Diff

Bo Bichette - 78 PA, 0.237 wOBA, 0.339 xwOBA, 0.102 Diff

Max Muncy - 63 PA, 0.342 wOBA, 0.437 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff

Cam Smith - 68 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, 0.092 Diff

Will Smith - 55 PA, 0.319 wOBA, 0.41 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff

Brandon Nimmo - 66 PA, 0.277 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff

Moises Ballesteros - 60 PA, 0.215 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, 0.086 Diff

Corey Seager - 78 PA, 0.224 wOBA, 0.31 xwOBA, 0.086 Diff

Tyler Soderstrom - 64 PA, 0.263 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff

Nico Hoerner - 79 PA, 0.266 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff

Bottom 10

Samuel Basallo - 56 PA, 0.463 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff

Rafael Devers - 74 PA, 0.36 wOBA, 0.252 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff

Randy Arozarena - 81 PA, 0.394 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff

Byron Buxton - 78 PA, 0.461 wOBA, 0.373 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff

Jake Bauers - 58 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff

Chase Meidroth - 74 PA, 0.353 wOBA, 0.269 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff

Ildemaro Vargas - 73 PA, 0.341 wOBA, 0.262 xwOBA, -0.079 Diff

Riley Greene - 77 PA, 0.445 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff

Brooks Lee - 76 PA, 0.339 wOBA, 0.268 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff

Mickey Moniak - 69 PA, 0.408 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, -0.07 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Miguel Vargas: 35.0 PA, +0.2 xwOBA OE

Shea Langeliers: 33.0 PA, +0.186 xwOBA OE

Kyle Schwarber: 41.0 PA, +0.158 xwOBA OE

Bobby Witt Jr.: 39.0 PA, +0.155 xwOBA OE

Marcus Semien: 33.0 PA, +0.135 xwOBA OE

JJ Bleday: 41.0 PA, +0.122 xwOBA OE

Vaughn Grissom: 29.0 PA, +0.12 xwOBA OE

Mark Vientos: 34.0 PA, +0.117 xwOBA OE

Jonathan Aranda: 34.0 PA, +0.111 xwOBA OE

Yordan Alvarez: 35.0 PA, +0.11 xwOBA OE

James Wood: 40.0 PA, +0.109 xwOBA OE

Bryce Harper: 34.0 PA, +0.101 xwOBA OE

Spencer Steer: 41.0 PA, +0.098 xwOBA OE

Kazuma Okamoto: 34.0 PA, +0.097 xwOBA OE

Ian Happ: 38.0 PA, +0.09 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Cal Raleigh: 34.0 PA, -0.187 xwOBA OE

Josh Bell: 35.0 PA, -0.161 xwOBA OE

Jeff McNeil: 27.0 PA, -0.157 xwOBA OE

Jackson Chourio: 33.0 PA, -0.156 xwOBA OE

Cedric Mullins II: 26.0 PA, -0.153 xwOBA OE

Ozzie Albies: 33.0 PA, -0.147 xwOBA OE

Sal Frelick: 26.0 PA, -0.137 xwOBA OE

Ildemaro Vargas: 38.0 PA, -0.136 xwOBA OE

Nasim Nunez: 33.0 PA, -0.127 xwOBA OE

Jazz Chisholm: 32.0 PA, -0.123 xwOBA OE

Matt Chapman: 34.0 PA, -0.12 xwOBA OE

Chandler Simpson: 27.0 PA, -0.118 xwOBA OE

Casey Schmitt: 29.0 PA, -0.117 xwOBA OE

Wenceel Perez: 30.0 PA, -0.117 xwOBA OE

Willi Castro: 26.0 PA, -0.113 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Luke Raley - 45 PA, 27 BIP, 8 Brls, 29.6 Brl%

Kyle Schwarber - 86 PA, 48 BIP, 14 Brls, 29.2 Brl%

Byron Buxton - 78 PA, 56 BIP, 15 Brls, 26.8 Brl%

Kazuma Okamoto - 80 PA, 51 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.5 Brl%

Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%

Juan Soto - 75 PA, 56 BIP, 13 Brls, 23.2 Brl%

Ian Happ - 80 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%

Mark Vientos - 62 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%

Shea Langeliers - 71 PA, 55 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.8 Brl%

Max Muncy - 63 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Shea Langeliers - 71 PA, 0.493 xwOBA

Mark Vientos - 62 PA, 0.491 xwOBA

JJ Bleday - 65 PA, 0.483 xwOBA

Kazuma Okamoto - 80 PA, 0.446 xwOBA

Miguel Vargas - 77 PA, 0.443 xwOBA

Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 0.442 xwOBA

Max Muncy - 63 PA, 0.437 xwOBA

Matt Olson - 76 PA, 0.436 xwOBA

Kyle Schwarber - 86 PA, 0.434 xwOBA

Ben Rice - 65 PA, 0.43 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Bo Bichette - 78 PA, 130 Swings, 93.1 Cont%

Luis Arraez - 74 PA, 151 Swings, 92.1 Cont%

Nick Loftin - 44 PA, 64 Swings, 90.6 Cont%

Spencer Horwitz - 70 PA, 104 Swings, 90.4 Cont%

Nico Hoerner - 79 PA, 121 Swings, 90.1 Cont%

Chandler Simpson - 69 PA, 110 Swings, 90.0 Cont%

Sal Frelick - 62 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%

Tyler Freeman - 53 PA, 81 Swings, 88.9 Cont%

Chase DeLauter - 71 PA, 105 Swings, 88.6 Cont%

Yandy Diaz - 68 PA, 112 Swings, 88.4 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jose Ramirez - 6 Attempts (5 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Travis Bazzana - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Brayan Rocchio - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Oneil Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Connor Norby - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Jakob Marsee - 4 Attempts (2 steals)

Randy Arozarena - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Kevin McGonigle - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Josh Naylor - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Cedric Mullins - 4 Attempts (2 steals)

Sam Antonacci - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Jose Caballero - 12 Attempts (7 steals)

Jose Ramirez - 12 Attempts (10 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 12 Attempts (11 steals)

Cedric Mullins - 11 Attempts (6 steals)

Josh Naylor - 10 Attempts (8 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 10 Attempts (6 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 9 Attempts (7 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 9 Attempts (7 steals)

Konnor Griffin - 9 Attempts (9 steals)

Oneil Cruz - 9 Attempts (8 steals)

Zach Neto - 9 Attempts (6 steals)

Jordan Walker - 8 Attempts (5 steals)

Brayan Rocchio - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Randy Arozarena - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Ben Rice - 65 PA, 20.0 K%, 19.6 Brl%

Bobby Witt Jr. - 87 PA, 13.8 K%, 15.2 Brl%

Bryce Harper - 77 PA, 18.2 K%, 15.1 Brl%

JJ Bleday - 65 PA, 15.4 K%, 16.3 Brl%

Joc Pederson - 50 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%

Juan Soto - 75 PA, 16.0 K%, 23.2 Brl%

Max Muncy - 63 PA, 19.0 K%, 21.4 Brl%

Michael Massey - 46 PA, 19.6 K%, 14.3 Brl%

Miguel Vargas - 77 PA, 19.5 K%, 16.3 Brl%

Ryan Jeffers - 58 PA, 15.5 K%, 17.1 Brl%

Shea Langeliers - 71 PA, 14.1 K%, 21.8 Brl%

Trent Grisham - 80 PA, 13.8 K%, 17.9 Brl%

Will Smith - 55 PA, 20.0 K%, 20.5 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Shea Langeliers - 113 PA, +0.133 xwOBA

Miguel Vargas - 122 PA, +0.123 xwOBA

Spencer Steer - 110 PA, +0.123 xwOBA

Mark Vientos - 85 PA, +0.114 xwOBA

Cody Bellinger - 115 PA, +0.089 xwOBA

Nolan Arenado - 93 PA, +0.081 xwOBA

Michael Harris II - 89 PA, +0.079 xwOBA

Xavier Edwards - 114 PA, +0.075 xwOBA

Leody Taveras - 88 PA, +0.075 xwOBA

Ezequiel Duran - 83 PA, +0.068 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

James Wood - 124 PA, +11.7 Brl%

Byron Buxton - 117 PA, +9.2 Brl%

Ryan Jeffers - 82 PA, +8.9 Brl%

Miguel Vargas - 122 PA, +8.7 Brl%

Shea Langeliers - 113 PA, +8.2 Brl%

Hunter Goodman - 103 PA, +7.9 Brl%

Heliot Ramos - 112 PA, +7.5 Brl%

Angel Martinez - 90 PA, +7.4 Brl%

Mark Vientos - 85 PA, +7.3 Brl%

Xavier Edwards - 114 PA, +7.1 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Taylor Ward - 120 PA, +12.4 Cont%

Wenceel Perez - 88 PA, +10.4 Cont%

Junior Caminero - 115 PA, +9.1 Cont%

Bo Bichette - 112 PA, +8.8 Cont%

Josh Jung - 115 PA, +8.3 Cont%

Spencer Horwitz - 96 PA, +7.8 Cont%

Ryan Jeffers - 82 PA, +7.6 Cont%

Luis Rengifo - 85 PA, +6.8 Cont%

William Contreras - 114 PA, +6.5 Cont%

Mark Vientos - 85 PA, +6.5 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Jose Caballero - 91 PA, -12.7 K%

Luis Rengifo - 85 PA, -12.0 K%

Josh Jung - 115 PA, -12.0 K%

Taylor Ward - 120 PA, -11.1 K%

Brandon Marsh - 94 PA, -9.6 K%

Dansby Swanson - 105 PA, -9.1 K%

Nolan Gorman - 104 PA, -9.0 K%

Cedric Mullins II - 85 PA, -8.7 K%

Brayan Rocchio - 100 PA, -8.7 K%

Spencer Horwitz - 96 PA, -8.6 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Joey Ortiz: +3.4

Brayan Rocchio: +3.23

Austin Martin: +3.1

Jo Adell: +2.95

Xavier Edwards: +2.9

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

Carter Jensen: -3.4

Colt Keith: -3.3

Ben Williamson: -2.85

T.J. Rumfield: -2.47

Gunnar Henderson: -2.4

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Cody Bellinger - 0.427 xwOBA, 11.9% Brl%, 86.6% Contact%, 25.0% Chase%, 8.8% K%

Miguel Vargas - 0.477 xwOBA, 20.0% Brl%, 81.9% Contact%, 19.8% Chase%, 17.6% K%

Sam Antonacci - 0.427 xwOBA, 14.7% Brl%, 78.2% Contact%, 21.0% Chase%, 16.7% K%

Spencer Steer - 0.44 xwOBA, 13.3% Brl%, 77.8% Contact%, 19.4% Chase%, 13.6% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Jazz Chisholm - 36.6% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.927 Cold Rating

Christopher Morel - 35.9% Whiff%, 73.7% Weak%, 0.92 Cold Rating

Matt Chapman - 32.6% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.877 Cold Rating

Brice Matthews - 34.4% Whiff%, 69.7% Weak%, 0.87 Cold Rating

Royce Lewis - 46.0% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating

Bryan Reynolds - 34.2% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.85 Cold Rating

Cal Raleigh - 30.1% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.841 Cold Rating

Jorge Soler - 44.7% Whiff%, 65.4% Weak%, 0.835 Cold Rating

Seiya Suzuki - 31.0% Whiff%, 74.2% Weak%, 0.835 Cold Rating

Victor Scott II - 33.3% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.832 Cold Rating

Minor League Reports

Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday

Austin Overn (TB): 3/4, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2SB, 38FPts

Gavin Conticello (ARI): 3/4, 3R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 35FPts

Joseph Paige (STL): 2/2, 2R, 0HR, 3RBI, 3SB, 35FPts

Ahbram Liendo (BOS): 3/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1SB, 31FPts

Edwin Arroyo (CIN): 2/3, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 2SB, 31FPts

Thayron Liranzo (DET): 1/1, 2R, 1HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 30FPts

Oswaldo Cabrera (NYY): 2/2, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 29FPts

Steward Berroa (PHI): 2/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1SB, 28FPts

Aeverson Arteaga (SF): 3/5, 1R, 1HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 28FPts

Matthew Lugo (LAA): 1/2, 2R, 0HR, 1RBI, 2SB, 28FPts

Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday

Nico Tellache (SEA): 89 Pitches, 7IP, 1H, 0ER, 9K, 2BB, 36FPts

Ryan Costeiu (LAA): 79 Pitches, 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 9K, 2BB, 31FPts

Xavier Rivas (NYY): 67 Pitches, 5IP, 2H, 2ER, 10K, 1BB, 30FPts

Michael Forret (TB): 85 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 8K, 1BB, 29FPts

Davis Daniel (CIN): 83 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 2ER, 8K, 1BB, 24FPts

Brandt Thompson (STL): 55 Pitches, 4IP, 0H, 0ER, 5K, 1BB, 23FPts

Ashton Izzi (ARI): 72 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 6K, 1BB, 22FPts

Colton Gordon (HOU): 90 Pitches, 5IP, 4H, 2ER, 7K, 0BB, 20FPts

Christian Romero (LAD): 89 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 4K, 3BB, 19FPts

Blake Wehunt (BOS): 63 Pitches, 3IP, 3H, 0ER, 7K, 1BB, 19FPts

AA-AAA OPS Leaders

Jonah Cox (AA - SF) 124 PA 1.181 OPS

Ben Ross (AAA - MIN) 136 PA 1.142 OPS

Danny Serretti (AA - ARI) 120 PA 1.128 OPS

Marco Luciano (AAA - NYY) 140 PA 1.103 OPS

Franklin Arias (AA - BOS) 123 PA 1.073 OPS

Yohandy Morales (AAA - WSH) 159 PA 1.043 OPS

Sean Keys (AA - TOR) 134 PA 1.031 OPS

Jace Bohrofen (AA - TOR) 132 PA 1.027 OPS

Edwin Arroyo (AAA - CIN) 193 PA 1.014 OPS

Vimael Machin (AAA - COL) 143 PA 1.011 OPS

Jimmy Crooks III (AAA - STL) 139 PA 1.007 OPS

Ricardo Olivar (AA - MIN) 125 PA 0.998 OPS

Jack Suwinski (AAA - LAD) 158 PA 0.997 OPS

Seaver King (AA - WSH) 149 PA 0.995 OPS

Xavier Isaac (AA - TB) 122 PA 0.99 OPS

Eddys Leonard (AAA - MIL) 148 PA 0.99 OPS

James Tibbs III (AAA - LAD) 188 PA 0.988 OPS

Sterlin Thompson (AAA - COL) 161 PA 0.987 OPS

Jacob Gonzalez - 694378 (AAA - CWS) 182 PA 0.987 OPS

Garrett Spain (AA - MIN) 128 PA 0.984 OPS

AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders

Kade Anderson (AA - SEA) 30 IP 39.6% K-BB

Matt Wilkinson (AA - SF) 33 IP 26.2% K-BB

Josh Stephan (AAA - TEX) 35 IP 25.2% K-BB

Wei-En Lin (AA - OAK) 34 IP 25.0% K-BB

Bruce Zimmermann (AAA - STL) 40 IP 24.3% K-BB

Jake Brooks (AA - COL) 33 IP 24.3% K-BB

Sebastian Gongora (AA - BAL) 32 IP 24.3% K-BB

Karson Milbrandt (AA - MIA) 30 IP 23.9% K-BB

Joe Whitman (AA - SF) 33 IP 23.8% K-BB

Riley Cornelio (AAA - WSH) 31 IP 23.8% K-BB

Shinnosuke Ogasawara (AA - WSH) 34 IP 23.5% K-BB

Mike Paredes (AAA - MIN) 31 IP 22.4% K-BB

Andry Lara (AAA - WSH) 34 IP 21.5% K-BB

Jared Lyons (AA - CIN) 31 IP 21.5% K-BB

Brendan Beck (AAA - NYY) 42 IP 21.2% K-BB

Grant Kipp (AA - CHC) 29 IP 20.9% K-BB

Andrew Alvarez (AAA - WSH) 34 IP 19.8% K-BB

Daniel Eagen (AA - ARI) 29 IP 19.3% K-BB

Adam Seminaris (AA - PHI) 34 IP 19.1% K-BB

Gage Jump (AAA - OAK) 31 IP 18.5% K-BB

Today’s SP Streamer Picks

Shane Baz (44.0% Owned): Projected 6.0IP 2.74ER 5.2SO 1.85BB 15.15FPts

Tyler Mahle (27.0% Owned): Projected 5.31IP 2.47ER 5.52SO 1.9BB 14.98FPts

Sean Burke (33.0% Owned): Projected 5.78IP 2.67ER 4.93SO 2.22BB 13.9FPts

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

JJ Bleday - 41 PA, 1.191 OPS

Braden Shewmake - 27 PA, 1.148 OPS

Spencer Horwitz - 30 PA, 1.067 OPS

Ezequiel Duran - 39 PA, 1.047 OPS

Chase Meidroth - 32 PA, 1.018 OPS

Zack Gelof - 37 PA, 0.998 OPS

Gavin Sheets - 29 PA, 0.899 OPS

Nolan Arenado - 33 PA, 0.894 OPS

Brett Baty - 27 PA, 0.87 OPS

Carson Benge - 33 PA, 0.831 OPS

Today’s Hitter Streamer Picks

Zach Cole OF (9.0% Owned): Projected 0.86R 0.21HR 0.62RBI 1.35SO 0.52BB 0.22SB 10.05FPts

Carson Benge OF (44.0% Owned): Projected 0.74R 0.17HR 0.5RBI 1.26SO 0.46BB 0.15SB 8.98FPts

Bryce Eldridge P (38.0% Owned): Projected 0.67R 0.21HR 0.69RBI 1.18SO 0.46BB 0.02SB 8.74FPts

Joc Pederson OF (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.78R 0.19HR 0.57RBI 1.01SO 0.71BB 0.03SB 8.72FPts

Sam Antonacci SS (30.0% Owned): Projected 0.71R 0.08HR 0.48RBI 0.89SO 0.53BB 0.24SB 8.69FPts

Jung Hoo Lee OF (36.0% Owned): Projected 0.74R 0.11HR 0.55RBI 0.47SO 0.36BB 0.05SB 8.65FPts

A.J. Ewing 2B (41.0% Owned): Projected 0.57R 0.1HR 0.57RBI 0.93SO 0.62BB 0.33SB 8.42FPts

Josh Bell 1B (18.0% Owned): Projected 0.62R 0.19HR 0.71RBI 0.91SO 0.47BB 0.01SB 8.42FPts

Evan Carter CF (30.0% Owned): Projected 0.58R 0.12HR 0.66RBI 0.93SO 0.56BB 0.17SB 8.21FPts

Nasim Nunez SS (25.0% Owned): Projected 0.5R 0.06HR 0.52RBI 0.83SO 0.51BB 0.4SB 8.14FPts

Subscribe now

Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Of course today is the first day we don’t bet Cincinnati and Bleday goes absolutely off and hits two jacks.

Drake Baldwin ATL O 1.5 H,R,RBI -123 1.5u and O .5 HR +510 .5u

Matt Olson ATL O .5 HR +350 .5u

Michael Harris ATL O .5 HR +510 .5u

Tonight we’re just going at one spot, not a heavy card, and we’re gonna stack some Atlanta hitters vs. the almighty Ben Brown of the Chicago Cubs. Baldwin has been out of control. He has a 61% hard hit rate this season, a 22% pull rate, and 36% line drive rate. This is also a great spot for Michael Harris, who’s in that high 50% hard hit rate, along with Matt Olson. They’re all producing in the mid 70s bat speed. The winds are blowing out at 11 tonight and we’re going to just try to take advantage of this spot.

Betting Today’s Card: A Daily-Use Guide to the MLB DW Season Long Data Tool

This article is for the bettor who opens the sportsbook in the morning and wants to make money on tonight’s slate. Forget futures, forget season-long awards, forget August power rankings. The question we are answering is simple: given the data in this workbook, what bets should I be making today, and how do I build them? We have tools that combine this data, but I want to share how I’m using this in order to get values on bets today.

The workbook is wide, but for daily betting you only care about one thing in every tab: does this number tell me something the sportsbook has not priced into tonight’s lines yet? Everything below is built around that question.

The Daily Betting Markets You Are Attacking

Before you open a single tab, know what you are hunting for. On any given night you can bet starting pitcher strikeout overs and unders, outs recorded, earned runs allowed, hitter home runs, hitter total bases, hitter hits, hitter RBI, stolen bases, first five inning lines (both run line and total), full game moneylines, run lines, team totals, full game totals, NRFI (no run in the first), and YRFI (yes run in the first). Every play you make tonight will fall into one of those buckets. The workbook is built to give you a fast read on each one. (We have talked about NRFI and YRFI). Don’t bet them.

How to Read Each Tab for Tonight’s Card

This is how I read each tab

YesterdaySP is the first place you look every morning.

You are not betting on these pitchers tonight, but you are betting against the public’s reaction to them. If a starter posted a 5 ER line with a 22 percent swinging strike rate and a 36 percent CSW, the box score lied. The book will sharpen the next time he pitches, but for hitters who faced him tonight, is the public is overpricing their value?

Use YesterdaySP to fade hitters who feasted on a guy who actually pitched well, and to identify pitchers whose true performance was hidden so you can target them in their next start later in the week.

YesterdayHit is the same idea on the offense side.

A hitter who went 0 for 4 with three barrels and a 108 max exit velocity is tonight’s value play. His hit, total base, and home run props will could be soft because the public sees the slash line, not the contact quality. A hitter who went 3 for 4 with no barrels and a soft max EV is overpriced tonight. Pull this tab every morning and write down the names that fall in each bucket.

Proj v Actual is your daily hitter prop engine.

The Diff column tells you who is underperforming their pre-season projection by the largest margin.

Sort it, take the top fifteen names with negative diffs and elite OPS projections, and check whether any of them are in tonight’s lineup. Those are your priority hit and total base prop targets. The hitters with the largest positive diffs are who you fade tonight, especially in inflated home run markets.

Long Relief Tracker drives daily bullpen reads.

When you see an opener listed for tonight or a starter who routinely throws 60 to 75 pitches, this tab tells you which long man is rested behind him and what his JA ERA looks like.

If the recommended long man is good, the over on the game total is in trouble, and the F5 over becomes more attractive than the full game over. If the long man is bad and overworked, the back half of the game opens up for hitter props and team total overs.

Stuff+ Comp is the fastest way to find a pitcher whose lines have not adjusted yet.

If tonight’s starter is in the top of the diff column with a three or four point gain year over year, his strikeout total is probably set on last year’s stuff. Consider taking the K over. If he is at the bottom with a negative diff, his K total is too high and his ERA is about to catch up. Fade him tonight.

VeloData confirms whatever Stuff+ Comp told you.

Look up tonight’s starters. If their fastball is up a full mile per hour from last year, that is a real signal and supports a K over. If a slider or changeup is down, it usually shows up as fewer whiffs and more contact, which feeds team total overs for the opponent.

SaveOpps is your closer prop tab and your tight-game radar.

If tonight’s likely closer has a sub-2.00 ERA and 40 percent K rate over a decent sample, his “save recorded” prop could have real value when his team is favored by 1.5 runs or less. If the closer has been shaky, the opposing team’s late-game live dog price gets interesting, and the team total under on the favored side becomes a real consideration.

HitterStatComp is the daily confirmation layer for your hitter targets.

Once Proj v Actual gives you a name, jump here and check the current year row. If Bat Speed and EV90 are intact compared to last year, the underperformance is luck, and you fire the prop. If Bat Speed has dropped two or more ticks, the player has a real problem, and you skip the bet entirely, no matter what Proj v Actual says.

Z-Stats is the daily pitcher confirmation tab. This shows you pitcher stats limited to only the pitches they’ve thrown in the strike zone. This is where reliably high strikeout rates come from. We want guys who don’t need to go fishing for their whiffs and soft contact.

Pull up tonight’s starters. A starter with an xwOBA under .280 and a Zone Score above 115 is genuinely good even if his ERA does not show it. Take his K over and his side on the F5 line. A starter with a high xwOBA and a low Zone Score whose ERA looks fine is a fade tonight.

LUGrids is non-negotiable for any hitter prop. This shows you the full season and last two week’s worth of team lineups. Broken down like this:

Before you click bet on a hit, total base, run, or RBI prop, look up the player here and confirm where he is hitting in the order tonight. Hitting eighth instead of second can be the difference between cashing and losing the prop, no matter how good the matchup is.

Huge H+R+RBI boosts go to guys who are hitting 2nd tonight but usually hit 7th, for an example.

JA ERA is the single most important tab for daily pitcher betting.

The Diff column tells you who has been unlucky or lucky relative to true skill. A starter with an actual ERA of 5.20 and a JA ERA of 3.30 is a buy tonight in every market: K over, F5 ML, full game ML if priced right, and team total under for the opponent. A starter at 2.80 actual and 4.10 JA ERA is a fade in those same markets, and his opponent’s team total over becomes a real play.

FF Velo is for K props specifically.

If tonight’s starter has effective velocity two or more miles per hour above his average, he is throwing a fastball that plays up. His strikeout total is the cleanest play on the board. Combine with Z-Stats and JA ERA for full conviction.

You can also get an idea of which guys have extra gas in the tank with this. Take Chris Sale for an example:

His fastball averages 95.4, but he pumps it up to 99.4 as a max and 97.4 as 90th. He has high-90s, he just doesn’t use it to save himself. But when he’s in a big spot in the 6th or 7th, he can ramp it up and give something to the hitter they haven’t seen all night.

HR Susc is the most important tab for tonight’s home run prop slate in this tool. That “Susc” stands for “suceptibility”.

It is pre-computed by date, pitcher, opponent, park, and handedness. Open it, filter to today, take the top ten names by HR risk, and write down each pitcher’s vs RHB and vs LHB number. Then go to the opposing team’s lineup and identify the power bats hitting from the side that exploits the risk. Those are your home run prop names tonight.

The vs RHB and vs LHB split is what separates this tab from the public discourse, because the average bettor is not thinking about handedness when they take an HR prop.

H_Scheds has a daily use even though it lists upcoming schedules. It shows you the quality of pitcher coming for these teams over the next ten days, judged by average (regressed) JA ERA of that pitcher group.

The team facing the worst probable pitcher in the next 24 hours is your team total over target. The team facing the best probable pitcher tomorrow is who you may want to fade in tonight’s market if there is a price disconnect.

But this is most useful for season-long fantasy when you’re planning ahead for some hitter streamers.

HRSBPace is your stolen base prop tab. This takes everybody’s current HR and SB pace and adds them together at the end. It’s another season-long fantasy resource just to see guys who are doing a lot of good for roto leagues.

But it’s useful for daily as well. Filter for the highest 650 PA SB names and check whose team is playing tonight, who they are facing, and whether the opposing catcher and pitcher are vulnerable to the run game. Stolen base props are the most consistently underpriced market in baseball, and this tab is the fastest way to find tonight’s runners.

Ownership is a daily soft line filter. It’s just the current (sometimes a day or two out of date, but close) ownership rates in fantasy leagues.

Once you have a list of hitter targets from Proj v Actual and HitterStatComp, sort by Ownership. The lower the ownership, the softer the prop line tends to be, because sportsbooks lean on public sentiment when pricing role players. If two players look identical and one is owned 35 percent while the other is owned 95 percent, bet the 35 percent name first.

Team xwOBA drives daily team totals and full game totals. It takes team xwOBA (offense) and team xwOBA allowed (all pitchers) and puts them together:

When you have a high xwOBA offense facing a high xwOBA Allowed pitching staff (or a starter with a high JA ERA), the team total over and the game over are both in play. When a bottom-five offense faces a top-five pitching staff, the team total under is on the board, and the game under sets up well too.

SP Luck is your daily regression read.

Read about RISP H% here

Focus on the L15 columns because they reflect what the market just saw. A starter with a .345 L15 BABIP, a 38 percent L15 RISP hit rate, and a 17 percent L15 HR/FB has been hammered by bad luck. His next start is a buy in every market. Reverse signals are a fade tonight.

Auto SP Ranks is your daily SP cheat sheet.

Look up both starters in tonight’s game and compare scores. If one is 0.3 or more points higher than the other, the higher-ranked SP’s team has a strong F5 ML edge if the price is not already inflated. This is one of the fastest plays to find each morning.

PR_Hitters and PR_Pitchers are sanity checks. It’s just a standard roto fantasy league player rater.

Before you bet a name brand that has struggled, look up its score and dollar value. If the Score is still elite, he is fine, and the slump is variance. If the Score has collapsed, the public is paying for the jersey, and you can fade him.

The Morning Workflow for Tonight’s Card

Start with H_Scheds and Auto SP Ranks to grade tonight’s starting pitcher matchups. Move to JA ERA and SP Luck (L15 column) to identify your regression buys and fades. Cross-reference with Z-Stats and Stuff+ Comp to confirm the underlying skill is real. That gives you your pitcher side bets: K overs and unders, F5 ML and totals, and full game ML or totals where the price has not adjusted.

Next, switch to HR Susc and filter for today. Write down the top ten pitchers by HR risk with their handedness splits. Pull up the opposing lineups and identify the power bats hitting from the dangerous side. Confirm each one with HitterStatComp to make sure Bat Speed and EV90 are intact, then check LUGrids to confirm where they are hitting tonight. Those are your HR prop names.

For hits and total bases, run Proj v Actual to find underperformers, confirm contact quality with HitterStatComp, confirm lineup spot with LUGrids, and sort by Ownership to find soft lines. For stolen bases, pull HRSBPace, identify high pace names playing tonight, and check the opposing battery.

For team totals and game totals, use Team xwOBA against each starter’s JA ERA. For NRFI and YRFI, look at the top of the order for both teams in LUGrids, combine with each starter’s first-inning history if available, and use HR Susc to flag first-inning risk.

Finally, before you place any bet, run a single sanity check in PR_Hitters or PR_Pitchers to make sure the player you are firing on is actually still a real player and not a name brand on the decline.

A Same-Day Worked Example

Tonight’s slate. Pitcher A is going at home and the book has his K total at 5.5. He is 2 and 4 with a 5.20 ERA. You open JA ERA and his number is 3.30. SP Luck shows a .350 L15 BABIP and a 19 percent L15 HR/FB. Z-Stats has him at a .258 xwOBA with a 117 Zone Score. Auto SP Ranks has him in the top twenty. Stuff+ Comp shows a positive 2.4 diff. FF Velo has him at plus 1.8 effective. He is facing a team ranked 27th in Team xwOBA. You take the K over 5.5, you take his F5 ML, and you take the opposing team total under if it is offered.

Same night. Pitcher B is on the road. Book has him at a 6.5 K total. His ERA is 2.80, his JA ERA is 4.10, his L15 BABIP is .240. Z-Stats has him at a .335 xwOBA. Stuff+ Comp shows a negative 1.8 diff and VeloData says his fastball is down a full mph. He is facing a top five offense in a hitter’s park, and HR Susc has him ranked number three with a 6.4 percent vs RHB risk. You fade the K over and take the under. You take the opposing team total over. You go to HitterStatComp and LUGrids to confirm the opposing right handed power bats are in the top five of the order with intact Bat Speed and EV90, and you take two of them on HR props.

That is two games and seven legitimate plays, all sourced from the workbook in under thirty minutes.

This is how I look at it. Now the cool part is this is taking the data and moving it into the Daily Matchups Sheet this will give you a good start. Check at the bottom of the post below the paywall for access to that loaded up daily betting sheet.

Daily Mistakes to Avoid

Do not bet a player without confirming his lineup spot in LUGrids on the day of the game. A demoted hitter destroys every prop. Do not read one tab in isolation. Every play tonight should be confirmed by at least two tabs, ideally three. Do not chase last night’s stat line. YesterdaySP and YesterdayHit are for finding hidden value, not for jumping on the loudest box score. Do not ignore handedness in HR Susc. The vs RHB and vs LHB splits are where the public is laziest and where you make your money. Do not assume a closer prop is safe just because his team is favored. Check SaveOpps for recent usage and rate stats before you fire. Do not double dip on correlated plays without realizing it. A K over, an F5 ML, and a full game ML on the same pitcher are not three independent edges, they are one edge taken three times. Size accordingly.

The Ten Questions to Ask Before You Place Any Daily Bet

1. Is the market pricing yesterday’s box score, or the underlying skill?

2. What does JA ERA say about tonight’s starters?

3. What does SP Luck (L15) say is about to regress?

4. Who is ranked in the top ten of HR Susc tonight, and on which handedness side?

5. Which underperforming hitters from Proj v Actual are in tonight’s lineup with intact Bat Speed and EV90?

6. Where are my hitter targets batting in the order tonight per LUGrids?

7. Are velocity and Stuff+ moving in the same direction for tonight’s starter?

8. Is the closer side of this tight game stable per SaveOpps?

9. Is there a long relief edge that changes the game total math?

10. Has the public found this player yet per Ownership?

Answer those ten honestly before every bet, and tonight’s card becomes a series of small, confirmed edges instead of guesses.

The Daily Mindset

You are not predicting the future. You are pricing tonight’s slate more accurately than the sportsbook did. The book leans on public perception, recent box scores, and name recognition. You have JA ERA, Z-Stats, SP Luck, HR Susc, HitterStatComp, and LUGrids. Use them, confirm across multiple tabs, respect lineup spot and handedness, and bet the soft side of every line where your data and the market disagree. Do that every night, and the math works in your favor.

Read more

Subscribe now

Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!

Weather

This could turn into a three-game slate pretty quick… it looks bad in Boston:

That would pretty much take it off the table for me as far as the DFS slate goes. But we’ll proceed anyways for you guys playing it!

Game Data

Let’s just rock this thing out game-by-game.

Phillies at Red Sox

Two of the pitchers you least know what you’ll get from! There are not many worse pitchers to try to predict than these two.

It might not matter with the rain, but you can definitely play both, and you can definitely fade both! How’s that for some analysis.

Both offenses have been subpar this year against lefties.

Schwarber and Harper are both good against lefties, but definitely worse than usual as left-handed bats. And Trea Turner isn’t swinging the bat well this year, so it’s a spot that Ranger could exploit. And it’ll be his first time facing his old team, so there’s a narrative angle there.

Narratives are fake, by the way. If Suarez could just pitch better when he wants to, he’d do that all the time.

For Luzardo, the Red Sox are hitting better against lefties this year, but it’s still a team .740 OPS with a .324 xwOBA.

It doesn’t really matter with Luzardo. He dominates or sucks seemingly just depending on if he has the right touch or not.

Matchups:

Lots of green for the Phillies against Suarez. Not so much for the Red Sox against Luzardo.

I wish I could give you more, but we shouldn’t gamble on guys we don’t know. And we don’t know these two on a night-to-night basis.

It looks like a spot for the Red Sox to be limited with the long ball. The weather should help one way or another. So you could take like Red Sox under 1.5 HR or something like that and feel okay about that.

DFS wise, Luzardo projects well as always. He does the stuff projections love. A high K%, a good BB%, and it’s a good matchup. So he takes the projection crown here, but don’t say I didn’t warn you if he gets jacked up!

I like to stick to the numbers, and Luzardo in tourneys is a very appealing play to me if this game completes.

Cubs vs. Braves

This is the most interesting pitching matchup of the night, of the day, maybe of the week!

Read more

Subscribe now

Bookmark this and feel like you’re reading a newspaper again!

https://jonpgh.github.io/dailyBoxScores/mlb_daily_post.html

This will be updated every morning along with the daily reports & dashboard updates. Almost always by 8am eastern.

Subscribe now

The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!

I got the DFS slate breakdown done first this morning. One of you commented to us about getting the DFS stuff out as early as possible yesterday to give as much time to use it in research. So we’ll do our best there. But typically we’re getting those in 3-4 hours before the slate starts. I always thought that was plenty of time, but it’s interesting to hear the feedback about needing more time. I guess there are some real grinders out there who use the whole day to prepare… those are probably the guys making the money.

So let’s look back to yesterday now. The studs were studs:

• Misiorowski: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 10 SO, 0 BB, 33.4 points

• Ohtani: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 8 SO, 2 BB, W, 32 points

• Bradish: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 7 So, 3 BB, W, 29 points

• Cease: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 SO, 3 BB, 28 points

I just grouped Bradish in there with the “studs”. I don’t think he’s earned that title yet, but his last two have been very good. Let’s look at his last five starts. Because five is bigger than two, and five is divisible by five. You have five fingers on your hand, so that’s a number you’ve known for a long time.

→ 27% K%, 12% BB%, 14.5% K-BB%, 12.8% SwStr%, 40.2% Ball%

Still pretty disappointing. Last two though:

→ 35% K%, 8.2% BB%, 26.5% K-BB%, 14.8% SwStr%, 38.8% Ball%

The slider and curveball have been great lately, and that’s who Bradish always has been. He’s been a dude with elite breaking balls and a guy who just punishes you when he’s ahead in the count. But the fastball hasn’t been there, and it’s still not there this year.

Getting strike one is so important for this guy, and he’s been below average at getting ahead in counts this year. But it’s been better lately. So you must be feeling pretty good about him if you’ve waited it out. But my warning is that there will always be some clunker starts from a guy without a good fastball.

Sonny Gray - 6.0IP 2H 1ER 1R 6K 1BB

Back from the IL to throw 78 pitches and he was very efficient. A 14.1% SwStr% and six strikeouts, his best start of the season by far. Good news there.

Andrew Painter - 5.0IP 4H 1ER 1R 4K 0BB

Short outing for Painter with just 62 pitches thrown.

"He’s having a good game, let’s get him the hell out of there before he screws it all up!”. Good call, Phillies. They lost 3-1.

Nick Lodolo - 4.0IP 6H 5ER 5R 6K 3BB

I guess the good news is that the blister hasn’t come back. But I hope you haven’t started him for these first two starts. Actually, I don’t really hope that. I don’t care at all what you guys have done with your team.

The velo and pitch mix are the same as last year. He’s very dependent on spin and his release point and stuff, so it’s probably just a slow start because he got the late start. Buy low on Lodolo if possible.

Shota Imanaga - 7.0IP 5H 2ER 2R 6K 0BB

28% K%, 6.2% BB%, 22% K-BB%, 2.48 ERA, 0.90 WHIP. Kinda just saying the same stuff about Imanaga every time now. He’s losing a little tiny bit of velo on the fastball:

And he still has an 11% HR/FB, which won’t keep up, we don’t think. I don’t think he’s an SP1 for fantasy the rest of the season, so I’d absolutely sell really high if I could. I think there’s more downside than upside with him where things currently stand.

Ryne Nelson - 7.0IP 4H 3ER 3R 8K 0BB

First 6 starts: 7.71 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 20% K%, 9% BB%, 2.1 HR/9
Last 3 starts: 2.33 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 26% K%, 4% BB%, 1.4 HR/9

His four-seam usage is down to 54% these last three!

Look at that SLIDEPIECE. Nice. Ryne is back! We probably need to get that ownership a lot higher than 48%. He is certainly back in play for standard fantasy leagues.

Read more

Subscribe now

Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!

Weather

All looks good for this seven-game early slate.

Game Data

STL/ATH

This series has been the one to target for us this week. The park factor really hasn’t shown up yet. The HR per ball in play rate is 4.9% this year, which is the fifth-highest in the league. The HR/Brl% is 43%, which is in the middle of the league. But nothing has changed there; it’s a good place to hit, and we’ll have some warmer temperatures there with two pretty bad pitchers going.

Or at least I’d say that Michael McGreevy is bad. But maybe I should just #StopHate. McGreevy has a 0.86 WHIP and a 2.18 ERA. His BABIP is .200, his LOB% is 87.5%, his HR/FB is 13%. He’s one of the luckiest pitchers on the year.

But he does have some of those things that seem to “create luck” (which is impossible definitionally, but you get it). He’s throwing seven different pitches and has a good changeup. That seems to be the recipe for beating the indicators.

The smart money would be on the Athletics to break the lucky streak here for him and do some damage.

WASH / CIN

No other team has an implied total over five on this slate. The second-best we have is the Reds against Foster Griffin, who has pitched great this year.

There’s not a clear stacking team, which makes the slate pretty fun.

Matchups to exploit

• Zebby Matthews vs. Marlins: Zebby has fiven up nine homers in 34.1 innings this year in AAA with a 22% K%. He’s been hit around and the strikeouts aren’t there, either. He gets the call for his season debut today, and the Marlins find themselves in a good spot.

• Brewers vs. Griffin Canning: Kinda shocked the Brewers didn’t get an implied total over five with Yelich, Chourio, and Vaughn back against Canning. I’m going to take a pause and go bet their team total (over 4.5 +114). Canning has been fine in two starts, but we’re not buying it like the books are.

• Astros vs. Luis Castillo: I guess they aren’t doing the piggyback thing with Miller/Castillo yet; it’s a six-man rotation for now, which clears the runway for Castillo to get to another traditional starter here. He’s been crushed by both righties (.387 xwOBA) and lefties (.357), and his K% is down below 21%.

Pitchers

Read more

Subscribe now

Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

We got the game right yesterday but we were on the wrong side of it. We should have been way more on the Nationals and could have made a lot of money. If you had Garcia and Lile to each hit two home runs, it would have paid $15,000 on a $10 bet yesterday.

You guys are going to think I’m crazy for my pick here on Will Benson but he’s not going to get this matchup very often. We’re going to use Marte as his backup because he’s the best projection on the main slate today. That being said this is a great matchup for Benson. I need one hit out of him and one of the keys in Survivor to go a long way is not using the chalk guys every day like we did yesterday.

We ended up pretty close to even overall and we crushed the splash contest. All three of our players, even our alternate, had a hit. We’re gonna be using the sheet. John got absolutely hosed there yesterday. If you tell me Yandy gets that many at bats, I bet on him every single time. This is a preview of the data.

Free Play of the Day

We’re going back to JJ Bleday today of the Reds after he only got us over on hits, runs, and RBIs. With that wind blowing out at the speed it is, against Jake Irvine, frankly Bleday is just absolutely Hulk smashing the ball right now. 30% barrel rate in his last 10 games, a 60% hard hit rate versus Irvine, who’s given up a 50% hard hit rate to lefties and a 33% fly ball rate. We’re going after him today.

JJ Bleday CIN O 1.5 H,R,RBI -105 1.5u and O .5 HR +360 and O 1.5 HR +3300 .2u

Read more

Subscribe now

NL CENTRAL

NL EAST

NL WEST

AL EAST

AL CENTRAL

Astros

Hunter Brown (HURT) - 7

The shoulder strain is keeping him out until at least mid June, and that particular injury is one of the most concerning, so it’s certainly possible he needs surgery or something and it will fall apart again.

My grades on injured guys have been inconsistent, but they’re not super relevant to this particular exercise anyways. So he’s a seven. You’re obviously just IL stashing him until he comes back. But I would be trying to find long-term solutions instead of banking on him to be your guy down the stretch.

Lance McCullers Jr. - 2

A 7.41 ERA! But a 4.36 SIERA! But the bottom line with McCullers is that we’ve read this book before. He can get strikeouts (25% this year), but he has no command no ability to stay on the field.

Peter Lambert - 4

He’s been good. Much better than expected. But his 3.94 SIERA towers above his 2.76 ERA. The K% isn’t fully backed up by the SwStr%, and he’s been very fortunate with just a 0.3 HR/9.

Read more

The Slate Take

Ten games on the main slate. The field is going to crowd Jacob Misiorowski at 41%, Shohei at 24% and Dylan Cease at 32% because they top projections tonight. However at value per dollar you’re getting 1.7, maybe 2 points per dollar. I’m always going to try to avoid that and I never want to play the chalk on a 10-game slate. Meanwhile J.T. Ginn is sitting on a 14.95 DKPts projection at $7,300 and 2 percent ownership, and Lance McCullers Jr. is 15.21 at $6,300 and 3 percent. Bring that in with Framber at only $7200 and 15% ownership. The runs tonight live in specific buildings.

Read more

Subscribe now

2026 MLB Bullpen Tracker (NL)

May 13 – May 26

Another National League bullpen update—tracking closers, leverage trends, and the relievers that actually matter in SV+HLD formats.

Bullpens remain chaos. The key is figuring out which chaos is actionable.

Atlanta Braves

Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Back from the IL after a minimum stay and immediately returned to closing duties.

Holds Targets: Tyler Kinley, Aaron Bummer, Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez
Suarez rejoins the holds mix. Atlanta is rolling right now, and all four of these arms should continue getting meaningful work. Dylan Lee still stands out as the best overall option.

Miami Marlins

Closer: Pete Fairbanks
Expected back on the active roster Wednesday and should reclaim the ninth immediately.

Holds Targets: Andrew Nardi
Only recommending Nardi this time around. The rest of the bullpen simply hasn’t inspired confidence.

New York Mets

Closer: Devin Williams
The ERA still looks ugly, but the underlying stuff remains excellent. No reason to panic.

Holds Targets: Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley
Same setup duo as before. Clear hierarchy behind Williams.

Read more

Subscribe now

The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!

I did all that work for the Splash Sports survivor contest where you pick a guy to get a hit every day and see if you can last the longest, and I’m out on day one! I went with Yandy Diaz, who was the popular pick at 12% (everybody picked two players), and he went 0/5 with a walk. That’s right, he came to the plate six times and did not strike out. Five balls in play, all outs! And Nico Hoerner couldn’t even save me as my fallback pick, going 0/3 with a walk and a hit by pitch or something. I was 0/3 but with five PAs and just one walk. Sac fly maybe. I don’t know. But that contest was stupid and I don’t want to win it anyways!

If you’re still playing, or just want data on guys with the best odds of getting hits on a given day, check out the new resource I laid out here.

Pitchers

Paul Skenes - 8.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 10K 0BB

He did not disappoint in the easiest matchup of his career. The ERA is down to 2.16 and this guy has a 0.64 WHIP! That’s 15 points clear of Schlittler! A truly incredible number.

That got me wondering about what the WHIP record is. Because right now, Paul Skenes has it. Going back to 2000, Pedro Martinez in 2000 has the record with a 0.74 WHIP. Nobody else has stayed below 0.80.

Skenes has a long, long way to go to be the second guy to stay under 0.80, but it’s not out of the question that he could do it.

Michael McGreevy being on that list is so absurd.

Bailey Ober - 9.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 7K 0BB

Okay, man. I gave this dude a THREE on the SP grading yesterday. How stupid does that look now?

His fastball velo came UP to 88.6 miles per hour. 🔥🔥🔥🔥

He had 14 whiffs for a 15.7% SwStr%. He ditched the sinker entirely, but it wasn’t a pitch he was using much. Yesterday:

37 changeups, 34 four-seamers, nine sweepers, five sliders, four curveballs. The changeup was magnificent, the fastball didn’t get hit despite a 35% Strike% and a 45% FB%.

What do we do with this? He has a 19% K%, a 7% BB%, a 35% GB%, but a .283 xwOBA which is really good. The fastball isn’t effective, but lately it’s been good enough to let the changeup do the work and he’s been pretty good.

His last five starts: 32.1 IP, 2.23 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 20.2% K%, 8.1% BB%, 3 HR

I still don’t really want to start the freaking guy! It’s good that he has this changeup working so well, and the changeup can be the great neutralizer. Most dudes who beat their SIERAs consistently seem to have a really good changeup.

But general rules apply, man. He’s a sub-20% K% with a sub-35% GB%! If you look at the list of pitchers with K% under 20%, BB% above 6%, and GB% under 40%, there isn’t a good pitcher to speak of, besides Ober. It’s like Baz, Civale, Chandler, Fedde, Liberatore, Lopez, SWR, Painter, Rogers, Lauer, etc.

I’m not buying Ober. But good for you if you’ve been riding through these last five nice starts.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 6.33IP 6H 5ER 5R 8K 0BB

Roughed up a bit, but a pristine 8:0 K:BB. The whiffs kept coming with 15. But he gave up three homers. And they weren’t too Rafael Devers and Willy Adames, this guy got rocked twice by Eric Haase and once by Harrison Bader. Baseball is weird!

Trevor Rogers - 4.0IP 6H 6ER 6R 3K 3BB

Tough return for Rogers against the Yankees. He got plnety of whiffs with a 15.1% SwStr%, but was jacked up with two homers allowed on a .433 xwOBA. It’s tough to get through this Yankees lineup more than once.

I wouldn’t blame you for benching Rogers for a bit, but I don’t think I’d be dropping him anywhere.

Grant Holmes - 4.0IP 1H 2ER 2R 5K 4BB

He was limited to 78 pitches here, and Didier Fuentes followed with three nice innings (3 IP, 0 H, 3 SO, 1 BB). So Holmes might be destined for a bullpen role. But maybe the 3-4 inning opener thing will worok pretty well for them, and they can bring in Fuentes with that elite fastball and only have him facing the lineup once or twice through.

Shane McClanahan - 5.0IP 1H 0ER 0R 7K 1BB

80 pitches and done for Shane Mac. His max is 90 and his last three have been 73, 69, and 80. So they’re being careful to say the least. But he’s been pitching excellently. A 16:2 K:BB the last three starts with zero homers allowed.

Pretty soft matchups, though (SF, TOR, TOR).

Bryan Woo - 6.0IP 4H 2ER 2R 9K 2BB

Good job by Woo. A 58.7% Strike%, which is elite.

Freddy Peralta - 6.0IP 7H 2ER 2R 7K 1BB

I never know what to say about Peralta. He’s a good, but not great fantasy pitcher. But he was very good last night with just the two runs and the 7:1 K:BB against the Tigers.

Eury Perez - 6.0IP 3H 3ER 3R 8K 3BB

Only ten whiffs for an 11.5% SwStr%, and he gave up a homer and allowed three walks. He was playing with fire there. It was all pretty bad, to be honest. But he bailed himself out with the eight strikeouts and only the three hits allowed.

He’s now given up a 13.5% Brl% against. That’s the fifth-highest in baseball.

That’s very likely to come down. Very few guys have finished above 13%. Nobody did it last year with 20+ starts.

2025 Worst Brl% Allowed

1. Mikolas 12.7%

2. Quantrill 12.4%

3. Cecconi 12.2%

4. Irvin 11.9%

5. Sugano 11.6%

So that’s good news for Eury. The bad news is that he’s a fly ball pitcher, and those guys will obviously give up more barrels, since most barrels are fly balls.

Keep starting Eury and keep hoping the command improves.

Read more