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We have continued to do really really well attacking certain spots with our pitching and today we’re going to go on the other side of the game. We went up 3.41 units yesterday……

Woo has a 7.89 projection versus 7.5K prop against the Angels; however Jose Soriano has a 6.88 on a 5.5K prop.

For the season Seattle strikes out the ninth most in the league and they are a little bit worse against right-handed pitching. This has been a decent medium bar for Soriano this season, who has produced a 33% whiff rate, 21-22% put-away rate, and over 25% K rate, so we’re going to take advantage here.

Jose Soriano LAA O 5.5k -132 1u

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Lowwww scoring night last night. I cashed in the double ups and split the head-to-head like 60/40 or something. We were right on the cash line, basically. But a win’s a win, even if it’s not a true double up.

The Ryan Weathers play busted and the Cubs/Padres game didn’t go big like the weather said it would. I guess there’s a real lesson there for tourneys. The people flock to those Wrigley winds game, and the winds are unpredictable and dependent on guys actually hitting the ball in the air. I’ve been fading those spots in tourneys when I’ve come across them, and I’ll continue to do that when the ownership looks like it’s going to be really high.

So let’s chop it up again tonight!

Weather

Another hot and dry day in America. My in-laws live like 200 yards away and have a sweet in-ground pool, so the summer is awesome for us. We get to go to the pool and sit around and the kids can tire themselves out and have a bunch of fun. This is truly the way to live. Have a pool really close by that isn’t yours so you don’t have to manage it.

It’s like 80-95 degrees everywhere. Phenomenal hitting weather. Probably a good day to trot out some of those big home run parlays. The super juiced up spots:

• PIT/PHI: 85 degrees, 11mph winds out

• CWS/BAL: 86 degrees, 12mph winds out

• TEX/CLE: 94 degrees, 9mph winds out

• DET/NYY: 85 degrees, 11mph winds out

• WSH/BOS: 80 degree, 14mph winds out

• SD/CHC: 89 degrees, 15mph winds out

You’ll see that in the game totals.

1. SD/CHC: 11.5

2. MIA/COL: 11.5

3. LAD/ATH: 11

4. BAL/CWS: 10.5

5. TB/KC: 10

Implied Total

Another 12-game slate on this fine Tuesday. We’re going to start sorting this thing by the new IMPLIED MINUS AVERAGE column.

1. Marlins +2.28

2. Cubs +2.11

3. Dodgers +1.62

4. Red Sox +1.18

5. Padres +1.14

Back to the Marlins and Cubs today by this measure.

It’s JP Sears for the Padres against the Cubs. Sears had a decent first start, but he’s been buried in AAA all year for a good reason. He’s a fly ball heavy pitcher, which doesn’t bode well for him. He’s left-handed, in case you didn’t know that. Great spot for the fly ball hitting Cubs, it would seem.

The Marlins get Tanner Gordon. He’s thrown 109 innings the last two years with a 19% K% and a 5% BB% with a .360 xwOBA allowed. It’s another elite, elite spot for the fish, who did come through for us last night with ten runs.

The Rockies take on Eury Perez on the other side of that one. That gives you some pause, because Eury’s stuff is really good. It’s worse with the elevation, and he didn’t get many swings and misses in his first start off the IL. So it probably won’t go well for him, but he’s capable of limiting the damage in this one. The projection is around 80 pitches, so the Rockies will get some of the Marlins bullpen which ranks #29/30 tonight.

The Dodgers are back in Sacramento and get to face Jeffrey Springs this time, and that’s why you see the much higher implied total tonight than last night. Springs has a big problem with righties, he’s a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t get many strikeouts. So he’s not going to have much success in Sutter Health Park, or whatever it’s called.

Boston takes on Cade Cavalli. I like Cavalli, as you know, so I’m not pumped about going to the Red Sox here. But we talked about the weather there, and Cavalli has given up homers this year. I just don’t like the Red Sox lineup to use them against pitchers who we think are decent.

And then the Padres, who let us down last night, get a crack at Matthew Boyd. Boyd just has one start after hitting the IL, and he was wild in that one, but still did get an 18.4% SwStr%. He has been very good this year with a 21% K-BB%. But he can give up some fly balls and the home run potential is there for the cheap Padres bats. I don’t hate Tatis/Machado, but the Padres aren’t a priority for me today.

The stacks to use:

• Cubs vs. Sears

• Marlins vs. Gordon

• Dodgers vs. Springs

• Twins vs. Burrows (lower ownership)

• Mariners vs. Soriano (lower ownership)

I can also get behind:

• D’Backs vs. Roupp (in ARI)

• Brewers vs. Lowder

It’s going to be a big offensive night in all likelihood, so it shouldn’t be too hard to find some bombs in your lineup.

Let’s switch over to finding our pitchers and then we’ll go position-by-position to find the best plays.

Pitchers

Well we have a clear top two once again. And, in fact, it’s from the same games as last night.

• Bryan Woo ($9,000) vs. LAA: 22.4 point projection, 2.5x value

• Tarik Skubal ($10,000) vs. NYY: 22.2 point projection, 2.2x value

Skubal hasn’t been spectacular in the box score since getting back from the injury, but the whiffs and the velo and everything else is there. And the Yankees are just bad right now offensively.

Let’s hit the paywall and then I’ll show you the projections.

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I don’t know how far you guys scroll in the daily notes every day, but I ENCOURAGE you to scroll the whole way to the bottom if you’re looking for upgrades to your fantasy team’s lineup. I have this thing runny daily:

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

Jake McCarthy - 39 PA, 1.174 OPS

Caleb Durbin - 38 PA, 1.104 OPS

Ryan Kreidler - 28 PA, 1.021 OPS

A.J. Ewing - 36 PA, 1.011 OPS

Lars Nootbaar - 28 PA, 0.986 OPS

Cole Young - 34 PA, 0.978 OPS

Jake Burger - 36 PA, 0.978 OPS

Victor Caratini - 31 PA, 0.964 OPS

Anthony Seigler - 36 PA, 0.962 OPS

Ty France - 27 PA, 0.961 OPS

That’ll give you some “hot” (if such a thing exists) hitters that you can probably go add right now.

Jake McCarthy has been awesome for the Rockies. A nice add for Colorado there, playing into that home park. What you want from your lineup playing half of your game in Coors is a bunch of dudes who get line drives into play. Coors isn’t the greatest park in the world for homers, the real park factor comes from the lower strikeout rates pitchers are able to generate and the huge outfield out there that turns a lot of singles into doubles/triples. And that’s who McCarthy is.

→ .301/.340/.493, 6 HR, 13 SB

That’s a very good fantasy player right there. His home run rate is up to 2.4%, which is still low, but it’s a lot higher than what he’d done in the last two years playing with the Diamonbacks.

McCarthy is hitting .319/.352/.560 at home, really taking advantage there.

Caleb Durbin hit another home yesterday. He has seven ont he year now, with six of those coming in June. He has a .325/.360/.614 slash in June with those six homers and five steals. He’s averaged 2.56 fantasy points per PA this month, that’s 9th-best in baseball. The six-homer month is fake, he’s not going to do that again with his low EVs, but he does have a decent 15% Air Pull% that turns some cheap fly balls into homers. And his K% has been elite the whole time. He’s just hitting the ball a lot better lately and turning that high ball in play rate into results.

We haven’t heard a ton from AJ Ewing, but he’s been good lately. And he’s over 150 PAs in the Majors now, which is often times when you see the guy really figure it out.

He’s had a good year overall with a .772 OPS now.

The skills are there. He hits the ball hard enough to believe in some homers, and he’s a base stealer.

Eight steals with a 28% attempt rate, and that’s with a very high .363 OBP - so the steals are coming (8 in 45 games is good for a 29-steal pace over 162 games).

The strikeout rate is 24%with an 86% Zone-Contact%. And that’s a 14% K% over the last 70 plate appearances. He’s been chasing a little bit less. He’s started 8 of the last 9 games and he’s been hitting 5th-6th. So everything looks pretty nice for this guy to be a nice fantasy contributor. The upside is way up there too with the skills he has. He can be a 23% K% guy with an 8% Brl% and a bunch of steals.

Jake Burger is the last man standing in the Rangers lineup. They just lost Langford and now they might see Nimmo go on the IL. Seager’s healthy, but how long can that last?

Burger: .257/.320/.443, 26% K%, 9.7% Brl%

In June: .833 OPS, 24% K%, 9.7% Brl%

It’s a lower barrel rate than yo’ud like to see. He’s hitting a lot of ground balls. Which is exactly what a high-K, high-bat speed guy should be doing! But easier said than done.

Burger is a decent power add in deep leagues, but I don’t think you’ll get a ton from him the rest of the way. It’s so brutal to hit in Texas, and Burger’s never been consistent.

So you can check that automated report daily to see who else pops up. You’ll probably find some very useful fantasy bats to use there.

AARON NOLA - 4.33IP 8H 7ER 8R 5K 2BB

Wild start here. 23 whiffs and eight runs on eight hits. The Pirates got to him in the 5th. That was an incredible game, probably my favorite of the year. The Phillies went up 5-0 on Ashcraft in the first two innings. At that point, I turned the TV off and cleaned the kitchen. That’s what I do. When the Pirates are getting crushed or not playing, the kitchen gets cleaned. I hate a messy kitchen, hate it so much. But as I was cleaning it, I saw Esmerlyn Valdez go yard AGAIN and the Pirates erased the league so fast. The bullpen tried to give another one away, but Endy Rodriguez added a 9th inning bomb to leave no doubt about it.

Check out these two dudes:

Esmerlyn is up to a 1.138 OPS with six homers in 50 PAs, just a ridculous home run rate. However, it’s a 38% K% with a 59% Contact%. There’s going to be some real rough slumps coming. I think he’ll improve in that contact rate stuff, but at this point he might just be up there trying to hit tanks. I’m enjoying the long balls while they last.

I think you can add him wherever you’re looking for some homers. The Pirates are certainly going to have to keep playing him in all matchups. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if they bench him tonight against Cristopher Sanchez just so he doesn’t get discouraged or something taking an 0/4 against an elite pitcher. Probably not, though, his best skill is crushing lefties.

As for Endy Rodriguez, he’s making a case to be a top 12 fantasy catcher.

→ .271/.400/.482, 22% K%, 18% BB%, 13% Brl%, .380 xwOBA

The EVs are good overall (105 EV90), but his fly balls haven’t been hit nearly as hard (100 EV90). The air pull rate is very high at 23%. So maybe he can hit a few homers a month while getting on base a ton with his low swing rate and decent K%.

Back to Nola though. I was looking at his curveball grade last night, and it’s sick.

That’s probably the best curveball in the game. However, the rest of his pitch mix is pretty terrible. So if he can’t throw the curveball, or if hitters know it’s coming and just let it pass by, he doesn’t do well, as we’ve seen.

George Kirby - 8.0IP 7H 2ER 2R 7K 1BB

He got to the big strikeout day against the Angels. Seven isn’t overwhelming, but he was efficient to get through eight innings and had a nice outing.

He has been throwing sweepers like crazy lately and that pitch has a 13.4% SwStr% and .244 xwOBA. So he’s adjusting a bit and it’s been mostly working.

Casey Mize - 7.0IP 1H 0ER 0R 10K 0BB

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I just have to say, to start off this article, I’m really annoyed about the Ben Brown injury. I am overweight on him at the NFC. He has been an incredible asset this year. A team that’s got real contention has got Murakami and Brown. I’ve just been riddled with injuries on there recently so just had to get that out of the way. Now on to The Daily Slip.

George Kirby at only 6.5 strikeouts today vs. the Angels is crazy to me. I understand he’s not a strikeout artist but earlier this month he just put up 10 on Baltimore. Now he gets the team as the number one K rate in the league, the number one K rate the last 15 days, and they are number one or number two in K rate vs. right-handed pitching. Reminder on Kirby. He has a 31% ball percentage. He doesn’t really walk anybody. He’s averaging a 25% K rate this season and we have him for a 6.98 projection today. Sign me up.

As you can see, he started to use the slider more and he’s getting a good swing-and-miss rate. I think that pitch is going to serve him well tonight versus the Angels.

George Kirby SEA O 6.5k -102 1.5u

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I played the optimal lineup in cash yesterday. It was a bit rash. I didn’t really look at the slate myself since I was busy, but I threw the optimal lineup into a bunch of double-ups, and it cashed. Just barely, but it cashed.

It’s an uncharacteristically large Monday slate: 11 games on the board. Should be fun, let’s start the week off right.

Weather

It’s super hot where I live. That seems to be the case everywhere. A 70-degree temperature in Boston is the lowest outdoor game, and there’s no reason to worry about rain.

We have two games with huge totals:

• Marlins at Rockies: 12

• Padres at Cubs: 11

It’s a Coors game, so that makes sense. But it’s a wind game in Wrigley, apparently, with that huge total lined up for Imanaga hosting Canning.

We’ll want to prioritize those games offensively, but we’ll give it a fair look first.

Implied Totals

I’ve finally added the implied minus average column to the daily game info. This is where I start every time with these DFS previews. This is useful stuff for betting & fantasy roster decisions as well.

The Marlins are on top by a lot in both regards. It’s them and the Cubs with the big marks.

Looking at the implication vs. average helps a lot in the case of the Dodgers being here. They’re at 5.6, but just a third of a run ahead of their season average. So the DFS prices are probably mostly configured correctly. They’re against the Athletics (probably) best pitcher in Gage Jump. That guy hasn’t allowed a homer all season. I’m sure that’s mostly fake and he won’t completely shut down the Dodgers tonight, but the implication minus average tells you something there.

We have a nice number on Boston as well as they take on Miles Mikolas and whoever the Nationals might open it with.

Arizona (vs. Mahle in ARI) and Seattle (vs. Johnson in SEA) are the only other teams implied for a run above their season average.

We’ll take a closer look at those offenses when we get to the hitting section. But we start with pitchers first.

Pitchers

We’re paywalling, first. The $11.99/month price is crazy low. So you’re at just $36 for the rest of the season, you shouldn’t have trouble making that bag through DFS & bets with the access to all of the stuff you get. Join on today!

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My kids just get to wake up and do whatever they want in the mornings. That’s something I’m a little jealous of. Summers as a kid are so elite. I came down this morning and they were sitting there playing Go Fish so nicely, it was a beautiful thing. But then I had to keep going down the stairs to start doing all the work that I need to do this week before the long weekend.

It’s a big week in America. The 250th anniversary of the founding. The SEMIQUINCENTENNIAL, if you will. And you should.

→ SEMI = Half
→ QUINT = 5
→ CENT = 100

Half of five times one hundred gives you 250. Gotta love WORDS, don’t you? Actually, most people don’t seem to care like I do.

So we’re going to be listening to a lot of loud, patriotic country music this week and I’m going shopping for some things that explode this week.

It’s a good life, man. I had myself a day yesterday. There’s something special about having a wife who really likes and supports you. It’s that old trope happy wife, happy life. I think most married men realize the truth in that. A lot of times, though, they say it because their wife is usually on their case about stuff so it’s really nice when things are quiet. That’s not how I really take it, although yeah - it’s never comfortable when your wife isn’t happy with you. There’s just something about it, when you have a family that is all happy and doing what families should do. You really can’t have too bad of a day when you have that going. The happiness floor is very high.

We have got to start with some Pirates talk. My rule is that I love the Pirates and watch every game I can until they’re five games under .500. After that, I quit and find a new team. But they’re sitting at .500 right now and had a big win yesterday. But I’ll tie in some fantasy talk with it, too, because Esmerlyn Valdez showed something this weekend. A couple of dingers and a double. He has his barrel rate up to 33.3% (repeating, of course).

Very few understand the Leeroy Jenkins joke, but to those that do - it’s elite.

It’s an all-or-nothing profile for Valdez.

We’ll see if he can develop into more contact, he didn’t have this kind of huge problem in the minors (many such cases). But what I wanted to shout out was his 461-foot bang-job.

That was just the tenth homer above 460 feet this year. So that’s real power. It takes some kind of athlete to hit a ball that.

I had probably my highest exit velocity of my men’s league season last night. I’m guessing I cranked it the whole way up to 75mph. Direct shot to the pitcher’s gut. It was awesome. He picked it up and threw me out and we lost 4-2 largely because I went 0/3 from the lead-off spot, but it was a solid .800 xBA batted ball event, believe me.

Here’s the 2026 MLB HR distance distributions:

The average homer is just shy of 400 feet. The 90th percentile mark is 430, so anything above that is really cranking some hog.

Crazy that you get the same number of runs for a 460-foot job and a 330-footer. Bryce Eldridge’s game-winning grand slam a couple of weeks ago went 326:

Compare that to Valdez’ smash:

That Eldridge dinger was probably one of the most valuable swings of the bat all season in terms of win probability added. Valdez’s was meaningless. But that’s the way she goes. I think the Pirates should be given five extra wins for that homer.

Any-hoo. Let’s look at some of the big pitching performances from yesterday.

CONNOR PRIELIPP

→ 6.0IP 6H 2ER 2R 10K 0BB

The Road Rockies are still a thing, and Prielipp dominated them yesterday. He was my cash game SP2 and he took me to the promised land once again. 20 whiffs for Prielipp. I also told somebody to choose him as their Sunday streamer on X, so I look pretty sweet in that regard.

The profile for him:

The good:

• 15.4% K-BB%

• .233 xBA

• .312 xwOBA

The bad:

• 10.8% SwStr%

• 4.29 JA ERA

• 4.42 ERA (at least two runs given up in seven straight)

The slider hasn’t been nearly as dominant as it was early on, and his fastball is nothing special. But he’s good enough for the bigs. He’s a streamer and a 15-team league target to me.

CHRIS SALE

→ 6.0IP 8H 1ER 2R 10K 1BB

Ten more strikeouts for Sale. He’s been a little bit quiet lately, putting up “good” outings, but nothing spectular really since May.

He had a 33% K% and a 6% BB% in May with a 1.69 ERA. In June, it finished at a 2.35 ERA with a 28% K% and a 5% BB%. So I don’t even know why we’re nitpicking. He’s elite. An almost 24% K-BB% with a 2.10 ERA and eight wins.

Emmet Sheehan - 5.0IP 2H 1ER 1R 5K 2BB

Pretty good stuff there for Sheehan against the Padres. Five strikeouts is mid, but he did have 15 whiffs and a sick 17.9% SwStr%. He’s still suffering big time from this 27% HR/FB. That’s the highest in the league for 10+ GS SPs:

There’s plenty of hope that he can be very good the rest of the season. The home run problem is likely going to stick around, but not to this extent. He’s pretty predictable and he’s a fly ball guy, but his stuff is good.

It’s too many four-seamers and sliders; that’s going to turn into homers. But you can’t blame him too much because both pitches grade out well. Maybe just a few more changies and curve-daddies could help the home run prevention.

I think he’s an add if somebody ended up dropping him.

Carlos Rodon

→ 5.0IP 1H 0ER 2R 6K 4BB

The problem with Rodon is that he cannot throw strikes this this year. Nine starts in now, and his BB% is still above 13%.

A 39% Ball% isn’t so bad that you’d think 13.4% is right for the BB%.

The league average BB% for pitchers between a 38% and 40% Ball% is 10%. Rodon should be able to be about that kind of guy the rest of the season. And that will help a lot, because his stuff is still really good.

Big 13.9% SwStr% with a nice 27% K% and a small .297 xwOBA. I would say that the arrow is pointing up on Rodon, but he’s been a bit frustrating so far with a 1.25 WHIP and three straight outings under six innings pitched.

Kumar Rocker

→ 6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 5K 1BB

Has he maybe figured something out? Since May 30th:

That’s a lot better. But under the hood, it doesn’t look promising:

The 15% K-BB% is fine, and the 14.2% SwStr% is a good sign. But he’s still throwing for a 38% Ball% and just getting kinda lucky with a 10% HR/FB and a high strand rate.

But okay, he’s not someone we totally attack with hitters. The slider has been vicious since that May 30th date with a 114 MLB DW Grade and a 23.6% SwStr%. Sick pitch. He just doesn’t have a good fastball.

He has one good pitch, it seems, and it’s a slider. I think they should just make him a reliever, he could probably end up being a pretty nasty closer. But the Ranger do hate closers, you have to remember that.

I guess they’ve gotten 15 saves from Jake Latz, so they have been sticking mostly to one guy - which is not normal for them. But ehshe’s seemingly their only good reliever. So that works.

Jack Flaherty

→ 5.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 9K 3BB

This feels good for me, even though I’ve dropped Flaherty everywhere I had him because I don’t trust myself enough. Dude has a 16% K-BB% on the season now, but it’s 22% over his last ten starts. Fastball and slider are both working, and he has a good tertiary curveball. I think he’s good, man. And he goes to Arlington next to face the Rangers.

Sonny Gray

→ 7.33IP 1H 0ER 0R 9K 1BB

He took a no-hitter late into the game. This guy is WEIRD.

20 strikeouts in his last two on just 30 whiffs. He’s been very good since a bad start to the year. The pitch mix since May 1st:

It’s a 26% K% with a low 12.4% SwStr%. But he’s freezing dudes with all of this movement. He’s throwing just 38% true fastballs (FF + SI), and the sweeper has been unreal. A 26.7% SwStr% and 117 Stuff+ on it! Sick pitch. I think he’ll have some bad starts when that pitch is being located, and he’s not a guy to get a ton of whiffs. He’s kinda Nolan McLean like except without the same level of nastiness.

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It’s time for Tim’s PROSPECTS OF THE WEEK! Let’s go into it.

NOTE: Rookie status is determined by 130 ABs, or 50 IPs at the Major League level.

NOTE: All stats from Sunday, June 21st - Saturday, June 27th 2026

T-10 Prospects

1. SP Henry LaLane (Yankees) - A

ETA: 2029

Comp: AJ Puk

Prime Skills: LaLane is a big lefty who (of course… Yankees prospect) had a ton of hype back in 2024 after a killer 2023 complex showing and failed to live up to it, however since May 23rd, he has been a completely different pitcher with 50 strikeouts and 10 walks in 35 innings, only giving up 14 hits and 5 runs. LaLane has an above average fastball from both a velocity and a movement perspective, but he has subpar command of it and the big turn has been an increase in slider usage from 19% (third use) prior to 5/23 to 26% after May 23rd and over his last two starts the slider has become his primary pitch at 31% usage. The slider is more of a slow sweeper with a lot of horizontal movement and has a ridiculous 49.7% CSW on the year 24% SwStr% and is his best pitch from a command perspective. The sinker is a sub-par pitch that has good velocity, but he was throwing it way too much… the command is not great and it does not generate many groundballs. The change up is nasty and the more he throws the slider / sweeper, the better the change up performs as it keeps hitters off balance. He has good command of the change up and the biggest factor on continuing growth will be fastball command and the potential to develop a gyro slider. LaLane has 12 strikeouts this week, 0 walks and only gave up 1 hit in 7 innings.

Arsenal Grades:

• FA (94-99 mph): 50/60

• SL (78-82 mph): 60/70

• CH (83-85 mph): 60/65

• SI (93-95 mph): 30/40

• Command: 35/45

Prospect Rank: Top 400

2. SP Brady Smith (Dodgers) - A

ETA: 2029

Comp: Michael King and Luis Castillo mash

Prime Skills: Just what the Dodgers need, another good prospect. Smith was a third rounder in 2023 out of high school and was drafted at that spot even though he had just received Tommy John surgery, showing just how high they were on his potential. Smith throws from an 1-2 o-clock over the top arm-slot and is known as a big time fastball / change up guy and while we don’t have pitch level data on the west coast, he has a very strong five pitch mix that has resulted in a 17% SwStr% on the season, a near 30% K-BB rate. He’s breaking out after 2025 was basically his build-up, get back to health year and everyone should keep an eye on him. The fastball is attributed with some nice ride, but also some good arm-side run giving it some sinker action. The change up is a diving change that falls off the table and might be one of the five best change ups in the minors. The slider has good velocity on it and has potential, but the cutter and curve are used more often for swinging strikes out this juncture. The movement on the cutter is average, but it holds good velocity and is more or less a foil against the arm-side movement on the fastball. The curve has good spin on it and could develop into a better pitch as he uses it more often. Smith had 11 strikeouts with 0 walks and only gave up one hit in 66 pitches thru 6 innings last week.

Arsenal Grades:

• FA (93-98 mph): 55/60

• CH (84-87 mph): 65/70

• SL (86-89 mph): 40/55

• FC (90-92 mph): 50/50

• CU (77-79 mph): 30/50

• Command: 40/50

Prospect Rank: Top 300

3. OF Cam Cannarella (Marlins) - AA

ETA: Early 2027

Comp: Brandon Nimmo

Prime Skills: Cannarella was a end of first round comp pick out of Clemson last year and was one of my favorite FYPD players coming into the year getting a Brandon Nimmo comparison for me out of college as a high average hitter with a plus plate approach. He’s added more of a leg kick this year and has opened his stance a little bit and it’s translating to more power this year. I don’t have exit velocity data post spring, but he has 8 bombs and 7 steals on the season though only 14 extra base hits in 40 games shows he’s more of an average and on base guy who should be able to peak around 20 bombs and 15 steals with a .280 average and .360 OBP.ala Nimmo. He has a ridiculous .374/.448/.585 slash as he has jumped from high A to AA this year and only improved. I expect him to potentially break camp next year with the Marlins and he should slot in as a top of the lineup hitter, but the fantasy upside is limited, though he had a heck of a week tagging 3 homers, 3 steals and 4 extra base hits. He’s faster than the stolen base totals will tell you, but so is Brandon Nimmo - so while he has 60 grade speed, he doesn’t run often at only a 14.5% attempt rate, thus the 50 grade speed rating.

Hitter Tool Grades:

• Hit: 55/60

• Plate Approach: 60/65

• Power: 40/50

• Speed: 50/60

Prospect Rank: Top 250

4. SP Dylan Brown (Red Sox) - A+

ETA: 2028

Comp: Better Jake Bennett mashed with a much worse Framber Valdez

Prime Skills: Dylan Brown is the underdog of the week to watch, as an 8th rounder out of Old Dominion in 2025 (Teammate of Blake Morgan, last week T-10 and near repeat this week). Brown is a well built lefty whom the fScores love with a fantastic rise and run fastball from a ¾ arm-slot that overperforms, especially high in the zone based on his deceptive release point. His best pitch is a nasty sweeping slider that performs best low and away in the zone against both righties (in-zone) and lefties (chasing outside of the zone), but he will also back foot it against righties. The changeup is used primarily against righties away and has a significant amount of late drop and fade to throw hitters off the sweeper. The cutter is a true cutter rather than a gyro slider. Brown has potential plus command with a 51% strike rate and only 34% ball rate on the year and 2.42 JA ERA despite a .383 BABIP against. He’s extremely consistent with 7 outings of more than 7 strikeouts and only one outing with more than 3 walks on the year. This week he had 11 strikeouts with 0 walks, only giving up 2 hits in 7 shutout innings. Brown is an underrated name to watch as he’s a groundball (54% on the year) strikeout guy with above average command that could lean to plus. Get a good defense behind him and he’s a major league mid-rotation arm.

Arsenal Grades:

• FA (92-95 mph): 50/55

• SL/ST (82-85 mph): 60/65

• CH (82-84 mph): 50/55

• FC (88-89 mph): 40/40

• Command: 45/60

Prospect Rank: Top 300

5. OF Fenwick Trimble (Marlins) - AA

ETA: Early 2027

Comp: Lane Thomas and Mitch Haniger mash

Prime Skills: Trimble is a 2024 4th rounder out of James Madison and the dude is built, he has a very strong frame and is leaning into more power this year with increasing exit velocities (to around major league average per Baseball America reports) with a solid hit tool and plus plate approach, though it should be noted the plate approach has fallen off some with the increase in power. Trimble also has plus speed and in my opinion looks like a future solid regular OF, but does have more upside if he can increase the power to an above average 55. He’s having a great season hitting .273/.351/458 with 10 homers, 27 extra base hits and 17 steals in 64 games. Trimble has also opened his stance up this year, not quite to Ivan Herrera levels but it’s like Lane Thomas with the front foot more open and he’s a line drive master that will likely hit to .350 BABIPs in his best seasons. This week Trimble hit .400 with 6 extra base hits, 2 homers and 2 stolen bases.

Hitter Tool Grades:

• Hit: 40/50

• Plate Approach: 45/55

• Power: 45/50

• Speed: 60/60

Prospect Rank: Top 500

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As I write this on a lovely, gloomy Sunday morning, heading back to little old Delaware. I realize my bold take from last week may not come to fruition. I’m leaving you with a cliff hanger too, if you didn’t read last Wednesday’s post, go check it out and see how I did, and you’ll see my probably wrong bold take. Unless something wild happens today.

We went to the Orioles game last night and watched them give another game away. If they have any ambition to make the playoffs, it starts with the top of the lineup. They have sucked. This team frustrates me in new ways every day. I digress. Let’s look at this upcoming week’s starting pitchers, also happy short work week!

LEGEND

• Anchor Arms - General consensus is they are going to dominate the matchup.

• Send it Guys - Expect a solid performance. Thanks to either a favorable matchup or just a hot hand.

• Danger Zone - Could be an awesome start with a solid amount of upside, but it’s not a comfortable matchup.

• Desperation Station - A super unfavorable matchup, but you are desperate for points, so you start them anyway.

• Hard Pass - Dudes I don’t have any interest in starting.

Monday June 29th

ANCHOR ARMS

• George Kirby vs LAA - Maybe Kirby can throw a no-no at home. Projections love the spot.

• Jacob DeGrom @ Cleveland - Not ideal on the road, but he’s still that guy.

• Parker Messick vs Texas - Last two starts resulted in a combined 19 strikeouts. Needs to navigate a few solid RHB in the Texas lineup (Langford, Burger, Foscue)

• Braxton Ashcraft @ Philadelphia - Check out L/R splits. Philly's lineup is solid, Braxton will have his work cut out for him, but he’s been on fire as well, so it’ll be a great game to watch.

SEND IT GUYS

• Ryan Weathers vs Detroit - Just faced these guys last Wednesday, which isn’t ideal. He actually did this once already this year with Baltimore; he proceeded to have a better performance in his second start. I honestly think that is more on the O’s poor game planning. No bias.

• Nolan McLean @ Toronto - Strikeouts are never an issue for this guy, but walks are. He’s reigned those in over the past couple of starts. Let’s see if it can continue. Blue Jays are notorious for grinding out AB’s.

• Ranger Suarez vs Washington - Dude is on a heater right now. Double digit whiffs in his last seven starts.

• Robert Gasser vs Cincinnati

DANGER ZONE

• Shota Imanaga vs San Diego - I almost feel like bumping him down because of the SD offense recently, but we’ll trust the projections here

  

• Casey Mize @ NYY - Mize faced the Bronx Bombers last week, giving up eight hits and four runs. Although he had a 17.5% SwStr%. Projections give him a decent chance.

• Shane Baz vs CWS - As long as he can be in the zone, he’s going to have a decent shot.

• Sean Burke @ Baltimore

DESPERATION STATION

• Aaron Nola vs Pittsburgh - I don’t really feel comfortable putting him anywhere; he’s shown the ability to induce soft contact. Not consistently, though. Pitt bats are legit.

• Zebby Matthews @ Houston

• Nick Lodolo @ Milwaukee - Hasn’t made it deep into games the last few times out, not generating a lot of whiffs.

• Gage Jump vs LAD - Mr.Jump has been great recently, the Dodgers aren’t quite as good vs LHP, but it’s still a scary lineup for a rookie SP. I don’t think he’s a Hard Pass, though.

• Eduardo Rodriguez vs San Francisco - He’s turned out back-to-back 20+ point DK starts. Projections, and I don’t expect this to continue. Walking 11 in three starts don’t exactly lead to great things. He can stay as a desperate option for now, but I don’t think he’ll be here much longer.

• Trey Yesavage vs Mets - A three-pitch mix doesn’t give you many options to lean on. Mets are buns, so it shouldn’t matter. Doesn’t project very well.

HARD PASS

• Miles Mikolas @ Boston

• Tyler Mahle @ Arizona - Second start back from IL, wasn’t terrible in his return.

• Griffin Canning vs CHC

• Peter Lambert vs Minnesota - Gives up too many flyballs.

• Sean Sullivan vs Miami - Walked five out against Boston last start, but he did generate 10 whiffs. Someone to keep an eye on for the future.

• Sandy Alcantara @ Colorado - Over 100+ pitches last three times out. In Colorado, I’ll pass.

• Ryan Johnson @ Seattle - Nice park, and Johnson wasn’t bad last time out. Monitor the situation.

• Eric Lauer @ Athletics

Tuesday June 30th

ANCHOR ARMS

• Tarik Skubal @ NYY - I can’t put this guy anywhere else; he’ll bounce back (at some point). Good spot against the Yanks.

• Cristopher Sanchez vs Pittsburgh

• Joe Ryan @ Houston

• Cam Schlitter vs Detroit - Another double-up start.

• Bryce Miller vs LAA - In Seattle AND against the Angels. He’s a lock as an Anchor Arm.

SEND IT GUYS

• Eury Perez @ Colorado - Taking a chance here in the Rocky Mountains, but the projections like it, so we’ll put ‘em here.

• Griffin Jax @ Kansas City - We had him here last week when he went against KC, had a great start. Run it back.

• Connelly Early vs Washington

• Kevin Gausman vs NYM - Blown up two starts in a row. Still at home. Projections still like him here.

• Sean Manaea @ Toronto - Fantastic vs LHB. Expect Toronto to stack RHB. If they do, I’d bump him down to DANGER ZONE.

DANGER ZONE

• Jose Soriano @ Seattle - He definitely hasn’t been as good as he was to start the year. Projections, and I think it’s a decent spot for him.

• Cade Cavali @ Boston

• MacKenzie Gore @ Cleveland - Scary away from home, but it’s against the JRAM-less Guardians. Full send. Considering moving him up a tier.

• Brandon Sproat vs Cincinnati - Faced Cincy his last time out with 10 K’s.

• Landon Roupp @ Arizona - Gets a decent amount of whiffs and a 50% groundball rate to go along with it the past two months.

DESPERATION STATION

• Justin Wrobelski @ Athletics - Been very lucky this season.

• Noah Cameron vs Tampa Bay - Having a tough time getting him here, but projections like it, so we’ll ride with it. Gave up five runs in Tampa last time out.

• Trey Gibson vs CWS - Pitch count was only at 66 last time out, but his Death Ball was great again.

• Tanner Bibee vs Texas - Pretty mid, but you know what you’re going to get with him.

• Grant Holmes vs St. Louis - Has been meh. I wouldn’t stream against the Cards. We’ll leave him here since projections have a decent grade.

HARD PASS

• Mike Burrows vs Minnesota - Nahhh

• Brandon Pfaadt vs San Francisco - First start back from the minors.

• Matthew Liberatore @ Atlanta - Buddy fooled us for a few starts.

  

• Bubba Chandler @ Philadelphia - Man, I wish this guy would just be a stud. He doesn’t get a lot of swing-and-miss or groundballs. Recipe for disaster. Projections don’t love him either. Hasn’t thrown a lot of pitches in the last few starts. I’m sure Jon has thoughts about Bubba as well.

• German Marquez @ CHC

• Javier Assad @ San Francisco - Four home runs allowed in last two starts.

• Erick Fedde @ Baltimore

• Jeffery Springs vs LAD - Flyball guy in Sacramento vs the Dodgers. LOL.

• Rhett Lowder @ Milwaukee - A lot of hard contact and bad command.

• Kyle Freeland vs Miami

Wednesday July 1st

ANCHOR ARMS

• Zack Wheeler vs Pittsburgh

• Paul Skenes @ Philadelphia - Phillies ML mortal mega lock. IYKYK.

• Shohei Ohtani @ Athletics - Even in Sacramento, I think Ohtani will make out fine. As long as Dalton Rushing isn’t catching.

• Nathan Eovaldi @ Cleveland - Just struck out nine Blue Jays. He’s on a nice run.

SEND IT GUYS

• Max Meyer @ Colorado - His fastball already sucks, so he’ll just throw his breaking balls a ton.

• Payton Tolle @ Washington - #7 ranked SP of the day according to projections.

• Ian Seymour @ Kansas City - Love this spot.

• Tatsuyi Imai vs Minnesota - Faced them in late May; he’s a hot hand right now.

• Trevor Rogers vs CWS - Back-to-back great starts. His fastball looked very deceptive Friday night. Almost 29% SwStr% is nuts.

  

• Shane Dorhan vs Cincinnati - Deep pitch mix at home.

• Joey Cantillo vs Texas - Going against the projections here a bit, they have him probably in the Danger Zone. He’s got a 21.7% K-BB% in June, which, yes, is a small sample, but he’s been great. He made an arsenal change to throw his curveball way more, and it’s paid off. His fastball still sucks, but if he can leverage his curveball against it, that keeps batters off balance.

DANGER ZONE

• Matthew Boyd vs San Diego - Machado and Tatis are getting hot, could be a tough matchup for Boyd. Second start back on IL.

• Will Warren vs Detroit - He’s really taken a step back in the last month and a half. A 4.7% K-BB% is less than ideal. If projections didn’t like it so much, I’d probably have him in the Desperation Station.

• Andrew Alvarez @ Boston - If the walks aren’t an issue, he will make out fine.

• JT Ginn vs LAD - He’s been good, let him ride.

• Freddy Peralta @ Toronto - Rebounded nicely last outing, let’s see if he can do it again.

DESPERATION STATION

• Trevor McDonald @ Arizona - I think he’s actually a hard pass. He’s pretty much lost all of the good qualities he had going for him. BB% has doubled to 12% (from May to June). Maybe you start him since Arizona’s offense has been so meh, but I would steer away.

  

• Taj Bradley @ Houston - Walks are still an issue, but he’s still getting a good amount of swing and misses.

• Walker Buehler @ CHC - Been usable recently, due to an uptick in cutter usage. Probably worth a look in deep leagues.

• Noah Schultz @ Baltimore - First game off IL, Baltimore sucks vs LHP.

• Andrew Abbott @ Milwaukee - Same way as Manaea. Great vs LHB, but righties can hit him hard. Check the lineup before starting.

HARD PASS

• Max Scherzer vs NYM - #washed. Although he did get 13 whiffs against the Phillies through 3.3 IP. That’s honestly pretty impressive, getting that much swing and miss while allowing five runs.

• Zac Gallen vs San Francisco

• Troy Melton @ NYY - Projections don’t love this spot, I agree.

• Michael McGreevy @ Atlanta

• Martin Perez vs St. Louis - He’s been decent this year. The Cards have a sub .700 OPS against LHP. Don’t expect many strikeouts.

• Tomoyuki Sugano vs Miami

• Seth Lugo vs Tampa Bay - The Devil Rays shelled him last time out. Like I said last week, he’s not missing many bats

Hope you guys are enjoying these write-ups as much as I am. Feel free to comment any suggestions.

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Dylan Cease has a walk problem again.

→ 4.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 10 K, 5 BB

Since May 19th, he has a 13.2% BB% in seven starts. It comes with a 35% K%, so that offsets a lot of the damage, but it’s a 1.26 WHIP for Cease now. He has 25 strikeouts and 13 walks in his last three outings with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. The strikeouts are awesome, but he hasn’t been fantastic for the ratios.

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Check out the latest from John Allen! Taking a look at favorable parks that some hitters will be visiting:

Two Start Streamers

My picks:

• Griffin Jax (KC / HOU)

• Shane Drohan (CIN / ARI)

• Brandon Sproat (CIN / ARI)

Those are all good adds ahead of next week in my opinion.

One Start Streamers

• Jack Flaherty at TEX

• Sean Manaea at TOR

• Jake Bennett at LAA

• Tatsuya Imai vs MIN

• Joey Cantillo vs. TEX

• Sean Burke at BAL

Advantageous Hitting Schedules

Seven games:

• SD

• PIT

• MIL

• MIA

• LAD

• CWS

• COL (all at home)

• CLE

• CIN

Coors:

• Marlins play four games in Coors

• Giants play three games in Coors

• Dodgers go to Sacramento

• Marlins go to Sacramento

So that’s an unreal hitting week for the Marlins.

Doesn’t get much better than that.

Hitter Streamers

Just go pick up some Marlins, it’s pretty much that simple this week. They’re in a dream spot.

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

I’ve been staring at this line all morning and I’m not sure why it’s priced here but it’s just too good to pass up. Jake Bennett gets to face the Yankees today. He just struck out nine at Colorado but the Yankees are the number one K-rate team this season versus left-handed pitching. We’re getting his line at plus money for 4.5. It’s just too good of value to pass up for a guy that’s been really good against left-handed batters this season, being that he’s a lefty.

Jake Bennett BOS O 4.5k +125 1u and O 5.5k +267 1u

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Main Slate Breakdown for June 27

The Run Environment

The sim built an eight-game slate where the run scoring is bunched at the top. Four games clear a 10-run total and the back half of the board falls off a cliff. Here are the top game environments by sim total:

• COL @ MIN, 10.75, lean the MIN side against Michael Lorenzen

• WSH @ BAL, 10.66, both sides live, BAL bats face Foster Griffin and WSH bats face Brandon Young

• ATL @ SF, 10.63, lean the ATL side against Logan Webb 17mph winds blowing out.

• MIA @ STL, 10.49, both sides live, MIA bats face Andre Pallante and STL bats face Ryan Gusto

• SEA @ CLE, 9.15, lean the SEA side against Slade Cecconi

Team totals are where you pick your stacks, and the sim’s highest implied teams are SEA at 5.91, ATL at 5.78 (on the road in SF), MIN at 5.61, WSH at 5.56, and LAD at 5.57. The ownership tab says the field is piling into Minnesota. Buxton sits at 19 percent, Kody Clemens at 20, Brooks Lee and Victor Caratini both at 18. That’s a chalk stack, and it’s a fine stack, but everyone has it. The quiet runs are in San Francisco’s visitor dugout and in Seattle, where the entire Mariners lineup is sitting under 9 percent owned despite the highest team total on the slate. That is the disconnect

The trap total is WSH @ BAL. It’s the second-highest number on the board at 10.66, but the wind is blowing in at 8 mph at Camden and there’s 28 percent rain in the forecast. The sim still likes the bats, but the field will treat a 10.66 like a guaranteed track meet, and I’d rather be a click lighter there. Slate size is medium at eight games, so this is standard leverage territory: ownership concentrates but doesn’t collapse, and being right matters as much as being different. Start time 19:05 ET, run size 2,000 sims, count confirmed at eight.

Tonight’s Lesson

This slate is a clinic on lucky pitcher regression versus bad pitcher skill gap, and they price completely differently. A lucky pitcher carries a shiny ERA into a matchup the sim says he loses. A bad pitcher just is what he is, and the sim prices his opponent’s bats up accordingly. Your job is to separate the two using the sim’s win percentages and the opposing team totals, then cross that against ownership. When the sim hands a 5.78 team total to a road lineup nobody is rostering, you don’t overthink it.

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In Park Predictors, we look at favorable matchups for hitters and pitchers based on where they are playing this week and the MLB DW Park Factors, which look at four years' worth of data for MLB ballparks.

Here’s a look at the June 29-July 5:

HITTERS

Miami Marlins

While the Marlins home park is no longer the place for home runs to die, their hitters will likely not have a better week to swing away than with four games in Colorado followed by three in Sacramento against the Athletics.

It will also help that of the seven projected starting pitchers, only one (Gage Jump) has an ERA under 4.30 and two have ERAs over 7.

Owen Cassie has struggled on the road (.186/.253/.372 and 13 RBI) compared to home (.262/.311/.467 and 30 RBI). So maybe temper your expectations for him.

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So I faded the Mizz in DFS last night. And it didn’t work. He scored 28 points, which was barely over 2x on his $13,000 salary, but JT Ginn didn’t really get the job done for me, and I ended up not having nearly enough Chicago White Sox bats, even though I wrote extensively about how good of a play they were last night. That’s the way she goes. Back at it today. Playing DFS cash is the most fun fantasy baseball thing I’ve found.

The White Sox scored 22 runs on 23 hits.

So that was a pretty bad day for Mitch Spence, who was called up from AAA to fill in for Stephen Kolek. He gave up ten runs on eight hits, getting four outs.

That seems really hard to do. The bullpen came in and did more of that. That KC pitching staff is a big old mess.

Jacob Misiorowski - 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 8 K, 1 HR

Seiya Suzuki got to him, and he did walk four. So it wasn’t the most amazing start in the world, but still excellent and the Brewers ended up winning the game 6-2, scoring all six runs after the fifth.

The pitchers of the day:

Payton Tolle owns the Yankees so far. His best two starts are against them. 12.5% SwStr% last night, which isn’t great, but a 52% Strike% overall and a 31% Ball%. He came right at the Yankees. His stuff is good enough to do that with.

Max Meyer continues his All Star season. He used his sweeper at a season-high rate. Here’s the pitch mix for the season:

55% Sweepers + Sliders. Not a lot of guys can get away with that, but the ball rate on his slider makes the difference. He’s getting so, so many strikes with that.

The fastball still sucks, though! That’s eventually going to get him into some trouble.

Trevor Rogers had another good one

6.33IP 5H 1ER 1R 7K 0BB

This was arguably his best of the year. The fastball velo has been up:

And he has three straight with double-digit whiffs.

That was definitely his best start of the year. The fastball has been awesome in the last four:

• 17.3% SwStr%

• 58% Strike%

The changeup still has not… so that’s limiting. But last year he had a lot of great outings with the fastball being so dominant, and that’s been the case against lately. It might be time to give him an add.

Joey Cantillo had his second consecutive nine-strikeout game.

6.0IP 2H 1ER 1R 9K 2BB

18 whiffs for the lefty. So has anything changed in these last two?

It is more curveball usage. That’s at 23% for the year and 48% the last two. So there’s something different.

That pitch is good:

• 115 Stuff+

• 16.2% SwStr%

• 50% Strike%

• 36% Ball%

• .215 xwOBA

So it’s interesting to see him throwing that a lot. The fastball has gotten by these last two and the changeup has also been great. So that’s a recipe for success, but it’s not going to last, methinks. He has a 91 MLB DW grade on the four-seamer. That’s second-worst in the league to Zac Gallen.

That’s with requiring at least 500 pitches. Dropping it to 250:

The best four-seamers in the league:

It’s a pretty nifty grading system. You can check that out on the main dashboard.

I wouldn’t be buying Cantillo in 10-12 team leagues.

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Plus Bobby Witt is back, and Brice Turang is not projecting very well on The Bat X side, so I’m pivoting a bit to this:

They’re all in the lineup tooo, so we’re good to…

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I’m on double-duty today handling the betting preview. There are a lot of tools here at MLB DW to help you be a smarter bettor.

Projections are the core of everything when I’m doing this. No feelings, no chasing jackpots, we’re just looking to find the wrong prices.

Home Run Model

I went through all of this in an article earlier this week.  Read that if you’re interested in how this works.

We start here, with the most popular market. Of course, right after I hyped it up, it’s lost at a super high rate the last three days. But still +15 units on the year. These hits come in waves. Most of the profit is from a couple handfuls of really big days. But here are the plays if you’re into it:

It’s surprising that Buxton +262 and Schwarber +292 qualify. Usually we’re not getting +EV until we’re at +500 for much less popular players.

I’m taking both of them to the bank.

Let’s do this:

• Buxton +262 [0.5 unit]

• Schwarber +292 [0.5 unit]

• Buxton + Schwarber +1325 [0.25 unit]

The long shots I like

• Varsho +528

• Machado +575

The other biggest price gaps that don’t qualify in one of the other judgment criteria:

Pitcher H+ER+BB

I have not been tracking these. Tread lightly. It takes my daily projections and compares them to the lines DraftKings offers in this new market.

• Misiorowski over 6.5 (projection = 8.8)

• Cantillo over 7.5 (projection = 10.8)

• Alvarez under 8.5 (projection = 7.4)

• L Castillo Over 8.5 (projection = 10.3)

• Paul Skenes over 6.5 (projection = 8.5)

• David Sandlin under 8.5 (projection = 7.8)

GAME O/Us

We’re holding steady at 54% in the O/U model. This uses the projections and gets a projected game O/U, and then tracks it all along. So 54% is pretty good; that’s a winning model.

Today we have four OVERS:

• CHC/MIL OVER 7

• COL/MIN OVER 9

• MIA/STL OVER 8

• LAD/SD OVER 7.5

Hits Bets

If you’re playing Beat The Streak or one of those hits survivors, there’s a sick resource for you if you’re a paid sub.

The book prices are going to be JUICED on these guys, so it’s mostly useful for those streak contests where you need a guy to just get a single hit to advance.

The pick is Otto Lopez against McGreevy.

Steals Picks

I’ve gotta data all over the place kids!

My steals picks will be Pete Crow-Armstrong +575 and Henry Bolte at +425 on MGM. Those prices are just silly over there on MGM, I bet they’re losing money on that market.

A longshot: Tommy Troy +1150 on MGM

Another longshot: Anthony Seigler +1250 on MGM.

I guess MGM is the place to bet steals. The prices being so much better over there suggest that you might actually be able to win if you’re consistent. Let me know if you’re trying it, I’m not gonna get into it over there. I have an account, I think, but I don’t wanna put money in there.

Pirates

I like the Pirates, if you haven’t been able to realize that yet. It’s Skenes vs. Abbott, O/U over 7.5 with the Bucs being -193.

I love the under on this one. The Pirates are BAD against lefties, believe me on that. And Skenes has pitched very well lately despite some tough luck in the WINS column, and the Reds have been awful offensively for a while now.

Both bullpens kinda suck, so we could get sniped on that. But I’m thinking it’s a 3-1 Pirates win.

Sneaky Pitchers

I’ve got four pitchers I found during the DFS slate preview that I think are better than the markets are giving them credit for.

• JT Ginn at LAA

  • 6+ strikeouts -103

• David Sandlin at KC

  • 5+ strikeouts +134

• Taj Bradley vs. COL

  • Under 9 H+BB+ER -120

• Andrew Alvarez at BAL

  • Over 13.5 outs -135

Game Sims

Check out the sims tool, it’s free to access today. I think you’ll like it!

As explored in the slate preview, the offenses we’re most interested in:

• Twins vs. Sugano

• Brewers vs. Rea

• Marlins vs. McGreevy

Pile up some H+R+RBI correlations for the top of those lineups. Something like this to capitalize on the lineup correlation:

Stud Hitters in Juiced Matchups

• Byron Buxton vs. Sugano

• Yordan Alvarez vs. Montero

• Junior Caminero vs. Gallen

• Kyle Stowers vs. McGreevy

I’ve not done anything here besides translate the data available to all PRO subscribers! If you like what you’re seeing, upgrade today and get it for the rest of the season.

If you’re a standard paid sub, you’ll only be charged the difference based on what you’ve already paid. It’s just $125/year, and you’ll lock that price in for next year as well, as long as I don’t decide to build a new website or the season gets canceled, or something.

Anyways, this was fun! Enjoy the baseball tonight and have a great weekend out there.

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It’s a 13-gamer tonight boys! That’s about as many as we can get since they’ve started doing a lot of these 6:40 start times on the East Coast the last few years. I’m still not sure why they do that. It was a 7:05pm eastern start time EVERY TIME for the Pirates when I was a kid.

I remember those magnetic schedules you’d get for your fridge, or the paper printout thing they’d give you. With the grid and all of the start times. Some nostalgia there. That took me to the WAY BACK MACHINE to see what the Pirates web site looked like in 2005:

SEVEN OH FIVE! Let’s bring it back.

Actually, it’s kinda nice not having 15 games to go through on a Friday night.

But there’s a lot to cover with 26 pitchers available to us and 234 hitters that will be in starting lineups. We should come out of this with a lot of confidence in the lineup we’re rolling with.

Weather

It’s yellow everywhere. You’ll just have to click that link and see it for yourself. Seems like we could have some delays and some wet spots during games, but no imminent PPDs. I’ll keep that page open just to break SP ties with. If we have two guys with about the same projection but one of them has a potential rain delay, we’ll adjust decide accordingly.

Game Info

TOP IMPLIED RUN TOTALS

1. Twins vs. COL [Sugano]

2. Orioles vs. WSH [Alvarez]

3. Brewers vs. CHC [Rea]

4. Rays vs. ARI [Gallen]

5. Phillies at NYM [Myers]

6. White Sox vs. KC [Kolek]

7. Athletics at LAA [Urena]

The biggest differentials from implied vs. season average:

The Twins are not in Coors, but the markets think they’ll do just fine at Sugano. The splits on Sugano:

Pretty much equal! And it’s possible that the big outfield in Coors has helped him in the home run department. That could also be randomness, but look at the difference there. 14%-15% Brl% in both spots, nine homers on the road vs. five at home. We can confidently use some Twins bats.

The Phillies take on Tobias Myers and then the Mets bullpen. Myers has been in the 40’s for his pitch counts, so he’s covering 2-3 innings and then letting the bullpen take over. The Phillies have not been reliable for offense this year, but they made a ton of noise against the Nationals bullpen this week. They do not have it like that tonight as the Mets have the #9 bullpen on the slate. They’re without Austin Warren and Brooks Raley, but still have a few really nasty relievers to use late if they’re in the lead. So I don’t love the Phillies.

The Rangers get Patrick Corbin. And that lineup has been doing a much better job. They returned Corey Seager to the lineup and destroyed Gausman last night (Seager wasn’t part of that, but him being back is a huge boost). They have a team .740 OPS in June. It’s really not a bad lineup:

The bottom three suck (many such cases), but away from that disaster park in Texas against Corbin is NICE. I love those prices, too. Langford, Jung, Duran, and Burger are going to stand out, I think.

Langford’s probably a lock at $4K, but we’ll see what we’re dealing with.

The Orioles face Andrew Alvarez, who has been pretty decent. But the Nationals bullpen, man.

Let’s look quickly at Alvarez first:

Those are solid numbers in a small sample. But he’s no stud, and nobody expected him to be this good, and he’s typically throwing like 75 pitches. So the Orioles will get some looks at a Nats bullpen which ranks dead last.

So you might not love where you’re at after the 5th inning, but that’s a nine-inning affair. Fear not.

The Rays are a half of a run above their season average against Gallen. They’re hitting .270/.342/.427 at home this year. Their team K% is around 19%. Outside of Caminero, they threaten very little in the home run department, but they get on base a ton and score points that way.

The main offenses I’m seeing here for price-related plays are MIN, TEX, BAL, and TB.

But let’s start by finding our best two SPs.

Pitchers

Usually this is where I’d put the paywall, but it’s FREE CONTENT FRIDAY. So it’s all free. Check out the web app with password “friday” to get it all for yourself today.

Let’s analyze these cash options. I’m certainly not going to write about 26 guys, we’ll look at the guys the projections are suggesting might be viable.

MISIOROWSKI $13K vs. CHC

That’s a $13,000 tag for Misiorowski. Sheesh! So you want at least 30 points. But he’s given you that in eight of his last nine, with a 40 ball and a 56 ball mixed in there.

Does the matchup really matter if you’re piping 103? OF COURSE IT DOES. The matchup always matters, don’t be silly. The projections take it into account, and we end up with a 26-point projection on the Miz. that’s a 2.06 value, which wouldn’t be a disaster. I’m open to it.

JT GINN $7.7K vs. LAA

Ginn has some wild home/road splits:

I’m not buying the 29% K% thing, that’s fake. He’s not that kind of guy. But imagine he’s truly at 26% K% on the road. If that’s true, he’s a super mega ultra smash play tonight at $7,700 for this elite matchup in Anaheim.

And the projections are all about it. He’s the #2 raw projection! The #1 value, of course! There you go, you could almost stop here and just lock in Mizzy + Ginn and feel pretty good about it.

WHEELER $11K vs. NYM

The Mets have a .667 OPS against right-handed pitching this year. Wheeler has a 29% K%, a 7% BB%, and a .258 xwOBA allowed over his last seven starts. He’s $2,000 less than Mizz, but yeah he’s eight points lower in projection and his value projection is bad at 1.7x.

Maybe I’m under-projecting him, but I can’t say I’m comfortable with that price on Wheeler. I think he’s off the list.

TAJ BRADLEY $7,600 vs. COL

The Rockies have held their own on the road, but they still struggle. There’s a history in the data of them being particularly bad in their first game of a road trip. That’s held up this year:

Those are very bad numbers. This is a terrific spot for Bradley at the cheap price. But it hasn’t been so good for him:

His last five starts:

I’m not so sure about it, man! He’s definitely cash viable. The projection gives him a 2.3x value. Pairing him with Ginn gives you plenty of upside at a really low cost (those two together are $15,300 - just $2,300 more than Misioroski himself). That’s tempting, and it’s something I’ll consider.

The game is all about price. And this is a great spot for Bradley who is the #2 projected ownership pitcher. And I kinda like embracing some ownership in cash. Gives you some outs if the pitcher fails. If Bradley blows up, you’re not out of it, because 40% of the field is going down with you.

PAYTON TOLLE $8.8K vs. NYY

There’s no way this is a cash play at $8.8K. But the ceiling he has is worthy of a tourney play. I think he’s throwing too many strikes. He’s in the zone a ton with his four-seamer. And it’s a really good four-seamer, but he needs to throw more curves for chases to really pile up strikeouts, and we’ve seen his K% end up in the low 20s.

Not for cash, but a guy I like for tourneys at super low ownership.

WALBERT URENA $8.3K vs. ATH

I’m definitely not going here. It’s in LA, which is very good news, and Urena keeps the ball on the ground. But the A’s are tough on righties and Urena doesn’t offer the same kind of strikeout upside as other guys in this price range.

ANDREW ALVAREZ $6.5K vs. BAL

He’s got an 11:1 K:BB in his last two and the Nationals pretty much have to let this guy pitch tonight. Their bullpen was mega destroyed against the Phillies this week, including last night.

It’s a tourney play only, but I think he’s sneaky at $6.5K against a team in Baltimore that doesn’t hit lefties well at all.

DAVID SANDLIN $5.7K vs. KC

Good minor league pitcher, got thumped a few times in the Majors earlier this year. But this is a super low price tag for a good matchup, and he did get 14 strikeouts in 13.1 innings in his three MLB starts.

His MLB pitch mix data:

Lots of pitches to throw at guys, nice velo on the four-seamer. I think he could smash this price tag.

OTHER TOURNEY OPTIONS

• Roki Sasaki $8.0K vs. SD

• Trevor Rogers $6.3K vs. WSH

• Luis Castillo $6.9K vs. CLE

None of them project well in these matchups, and they all have very, very low floors. But I could see them all having good results.

If we run a bunch of lineups with a 70% cap at exposure and 10% projection variance, here’s what we get:

The cash duo should come from those first three. Misiorowski/Ginn/Bradley. And we’ll let the hitters decide if we can get to Mizz.

Hitters

We are going to sort by VALUE and start with the “bottom up build”, picking the best player(s) at each position based on salary and projection. And then we’ll upgrade where we want to when the first draft is done.

CATCHERS

This is such a huge slate, man. You’re going to see more plays in this section than usual.

We have to be particular tonight. I don’t want to spend money on Baldwin, for example, because he’s in San Francisco. He’s the top projected guy, but it’s not right for the price. So we’ll focus on the best value marks, mostly.

• William Contreras $4,500: Rea’s bad, the Cubs bullpen is bad, and the Brewers are at home. Not a very high ceiling for Contreras, but the floor is nice.

• Kyle Teel $3,000: Just 9 PAs into his season, and the price is CHEAP against Stephen Kolek. He’s the #1 value, and I love the play.

• Victor Caratini $3,000: There’s a cheap Twin for this great spot against Colorado.

Those are the top three viable values. And I think that’s where I’ll land.

FIRST BASE

• Josh Bell $2,600: He’s had a nice season from the left side of the plate where he’ll be tonight. He’s a viable punt play.

• Andres Chaparro $2,000: Against Trevor Rogers. Chaparro is a platoon bat, but I think he’ll get pinch hit for late.

• Pavin Smith $2,400: Eventually he’s going to make some noise against a righty. But I don’t think it’s good enough for me tonight.

• Kyle Manzardo $2,900: Good spot for the Guardians against Luis Castillo, the Mariners’ only bad pitcher. But a very low floor since he does nothing besides hit a homer every once in awhile.

• Royce Lewis $3,600: Another Twin to consider, but a bad hitter overall, we think.

• Shohei Ohtani $6,500: Buehler has pitched okay lately, and this game’s in San Diego. Not an elite spot for Ohtani, but I want to give you some of the high-upside plays along the course here.

• Jonathan Aranda $4,100: Good spot for the Rays against Gallen, who SUCKS. I like Aranda for cash.

Josh Bell is what the projections are telling us to do. Huge 3.65x value on him in this spot as a clean-up man against Sugano.

SECOND BASE

This is gross tonight.

• Brice Turang $5,500: He’s over-priced, but the Brewers should score some runs against this Cubs pitching staff, and Turang is one of the best at the position.

• Travis Bazzana $4,600: That’s too high of a price. Just a 1.9x value, but he’s the sixth-highest projection on the board and I like the Guardians a little bit tonight against Castillo.

• Anthony Seigler $2,300: Maybe we just want to punt it. My model likes him more than The Bat X does, and we don’t have much of an MLB sample on him. He’s probably hitting #7, but we’ll have to see. He’s probably not good enough for me, but the punt at this gross position makes some sense.

SHORTSTOP

• Colson Montgomery $4,200: Pretty good price for a guy with this amount of power against a hittable (most of the time) pitcher in Kolek.

• Tristan Gray $2,400: He doesn’t look like an MLB everyday player, but the matchup with Sugano & Rockies bullpen is great. He has some power, he pulls the ball in the air a ton (21%), so he is a legitimate very cheap dinger threat.

• Corey Seager $4,500: Haven’t seen any Rangers popping up yet, but I like the little discount we get on Seager tonight - although he doesn’t have the platoon advantage.

• Bobby Witt Jr. $6,100: Big price against a lefty, so I like that. But the model doesn’t like him at all with a 1.5x value.

• Otto Lopez $4,300: The Marlins are in a good spot against McGreevy. Lopez has been a hit machine, so his floor is decent. I like him a lot, but Montgomery has so much more ceiling at $100 less.

Why can’t any of these infielders hit bro?

THIRD BASE

• Junior Caminero $5,700: Three homers last night, so that might raise the ownership a little bit. He’s the runaway guy in ceiling, but the price is way up there. You really need a dinger from him for it to work.

• Colson Montgomery $4,200: Dual eligibility for Montgomery here.

• Anthony Seigler $2,300

• Curtis Mead $5,000: Can’t believe we’re getting a $5K tag on Mead, but he’s got a .500 SLG against lefties this year and he’s up against Trevor Rogers tonight.

• Miguel Vargas $4,400: Little bit of a discount on Vargas as he’s “struggled” lately. He has just a .790 OPS in June, but a still extremely high .480 xwOBA. Great tourney option there, and the Montgomery + Vargas mini-stack makes a lot of sense for the correlation.

OUTFIELD

Values:

Top Projections:

• Byron Buxton $5,900: We like the guys with 11+ point projections and 2x+ values. I think Buxton is a priority tonight as the best hitter on the Twins in this near season-best spot for them.

• Sam Antonacci $3,700: The White Sox are popping up a lot today. But Stephen Kolek has a few gems on his record. Of course, he gave up NINE runs last time and has a bad 10.8% K-BB% with a 1.4 HR/9 this year. So yeah, I like the White Sox.

• Jackson Chourio $5,400: A Brewer stud to pair with Contreras if you’re going there. Nice 10.4-point projection for Chourio, good for a decent 1.9x value against Rea + Cubs bullpen.

• Kody Clemens $4,200: He’s projected to be in #3 spot for the Twins.

• Wyatt Langford $4,000: I love the Langford spot against Corbin on the road as the lead-off man who has been swinging it extremely well since he got back from the IL.

• Wilyer Abreu $4,400: Lefties love facing Will Warren. Good spot for Abreu here as maybe the only decent lefty bat on the Red Sox right now.

We need some help from the optimizer to find these plays to lock in.

We’re just all over Antonacci, Bell, and Buxton. I’m thinking of buying into the White Sox.

BUT that’s a weather spot:

YELLOW - Another annoying game where it will rain, but I’m not certain if they will just play through the rain or if it will be problematic (light rain is always that way). We’ll need to keep our eyes on things pregame to see if they have a tarp on or if they are warming up and planning on playing it wet.

This slate is tougher than I thought it’d be.

Let’s not worry about the weather now… here’s what I’ve put together.

I couldn’t get to Misiorowski, although I did try. And I’m perfectly fine not having a $13K pitcher in my lineup.

The guys I locked in at first:

• Ginn

• Teel

• Bell

• Antonacci

• Buxton

• Langford

And the rest came together, we’re able to get to Turang + Caminero with the Bradley play instead of Mizz.

I like that one. If the White Sox weather goes south, we’d have to bail on Montgomery & Antonacci. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.

I’m releasing this one now, I’ll throw some betting stuff into another post. Trevor is out for a little while now as he’s traveling, so I’ll take over the daily slip and get some betting action in there.

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Check out the podcast for some extra names that didn’t make the written piece, and a lot more detail on the guys we talk about below.

Shallow League Pitcher Targets

• Tatsuya Imai, Astros (40%) - Hard to deny the ceiling he has shown us in these last two starts.

• Griffin Jax, Rays (40%) - Pitch count UP to 80+ last time, and he keeps getting outs.

• Jack Flaherty, Tigers (35%) - Coming back off the IL soon, had a 30% K% and 5% BB% in seven starts before the injury.

• Brandon Sproat, Brewers (17%) - He’s going to keep showing up here until people buy in. The former Mets prospect struck out 10 in six scoreless innings earlier this week. What more do you need to see?

• Sean Burke, White Sox (40%) - After a great end-of-season debut in 2024 (22Ks in 19 innings with 1.42 ERA), Burke had his struggles in 2025, mostly because of a 1.45 WHIP and walking more than four batters per 9. The walks have returned to 3.09 and the WHIP has come back to a solid 1.21. He strikes out nearly a batter an inning and is part of the surprising White Sox start to 2026.

• Cade Cavalli, Nationals (50%) - .350 BABIP allowed, the highest in the league for non-Rockies. ERA can hover around 3.75 - WHIP should come to in a hurry with BABIP regression.

Deep League Pitcher Targets

• Tyler Mahle, Giants (17%) - Could he be back? After missing nearly a month with a hamstring injury, Mahle got 17 outs on just 70 pitches in his return. Right now, he’s a streamer when he starts at home. But he could become more in a few weeks with good work.

• Ian Seymour, Rays (15%) - 6.1 innings with a 7:0 K:BB last time, last three starts he has a 16% K-BB%, a 13.5% SwStr%, and a 33.4% Ball%.

• Robert Gasser, Brewers (12%) - Talked about him last week. Typical Brewers guy who they get the most out of. Deceptive lefty, deep pitch mix.

• Jake Bennett, Red Sox (13%) - A guy who can outpitch his Stuff+ numbers, Bennett is coming off a fantastic start against the Rockies in Coors. It was surprising when the Red Sox traded one of the top power pitching prospects (Luis Perales) for Bennett in the offseason. But the Red Sox know they are doing with young pitchers at least. If the Red Sox deal Sonny Gray, Bennett could have a rotation role for the rest of the season and beyond.

• Sean Manaea (25%) - Bad outing against the Cubs, so we’re moving him to DEEP LEAGUES. But still, a 60:20 K:BB this year and he’s been stretched out as a starter.

• Marco Raya, Twins (1%) - Tip of the hat for a callup corner arm here. Raya was called up from Triple A on Wednesday. A surprising 4th round pick in 2020 because of his average size (6-1, 170) and being a prep hurler far away from the Texas prep hotbeds of talent, Raya has slowly made his way to his MLB debut. Moving to the bullpen last year increased his chances, but he lacks one dominate pitch to give him a high-leverage spot in an MLB bullpen.

• Anthony Kay, White Sox (20%) - Another matchup with Cleveland coming up! 17:4 K:BB in his last three starts, doing some good things.

Shallow League Hitter Targets

• Francisco Alvarez, Mets (24%) - The oft-injured catcher is back from his latest IL stint and showing off the power that made him a top 100 prospect. As long as you know he will return to the IL at some point, now is the time to ride the Alvarez power train.

• Willi Castro, Rockies (47%) - The super utility player has a seven-game week at Coors coming up. But beyond that he has been on fire in June. Still only 29, Castro is hitting .324/.432/.541 with a 159 wRC+ for the month. He’s also making good decisions at the plate with a 13.6 BB% and 17 K% for a guy with career marks of 7% and 24.2%. Position eligibility all over the place, .938 OPS in June, hitting .331/.381/.441 at home this year.

• Luis Garcia, Nationals (35%) - .286/.320/.614 last 150 PAs with 12 bombs.

• Dylan Crews, Nationals (41%) - .263 xBA, .326 xwOBA, .837 OPS last two weeks with three homers and a good history of attempting a lot of steals.

Deep League Hitter Targets

• Caleb Durbin, Red Sox (29%) - Hit his sixth homer on Thursday, slashing .315/.346/.616 in June.

• Pedro Ramirez, Cubs (7%) - A decent prospect, since signing in 2021, Ramirez tore up his first taste of Triple A pitching (.312/.395/.547 with 9 HRs and 19 SBs in 43 games. That sent him into many Top 100 lists and forced the Cubs to bring him up in late May. Despite sporadic playing time, Ramirez is hitting .289 with two steals and a homer in 49 plate appearances. If the Cubs want to make something of this season, they need pitching and Ramirez is going to be on the top of other teams’ wish list. He could explode with consistent playing time.

• Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (18%) - Hits bombs vs. RHP, and he’s been forced into regular(ish) time against lefties as well. Good streamer for HRs.

• Christian Moore, Angels (10%) - He was on the Angels’ unfortunately fast track from the 2024 draft to 2025 MLB lineup. Not surprisingly failed in his first try. The surprise was the Angels sent him down to Triple A to start 2026. His numbers were very good, but in a PCL environment. What was more important was better walk and K rates. He is not tearing the cover off the ball in the majors yet, but he should become a solid power-speed combo with the .240-.250 average. He should qualify at second and third base.

• Owen Caissie, Marlins (30%) - Seems to be improving despite a still-high K%. At least getting to the barrel, slugging .545 with an 18.6% Brl% in his last 75 PAs. Platoon bat, though.

• Denzer Guzman, Angels (17%) - Maybe Moore will take playing time from him, but the guy has skills (21% K%, 9.5% Brl%) and can give you some power + speed.

• Blaze Jordan, Cardinals (38%) - Playing every day for the Cardinals, slashing .286/.298/.476. Underlying numbers aren’t great, but the volume is there, and he has some raw power.

• Coby Mayo, Orioles (15%) - One of the best hitters in the league against lefties.

Last Week’s Waiver Wire Review

Shallow League Hits

Dylan Crews, Nationals (OF): Could it finally be happening for Crews? He is 10-for-25 with eight runs scored and a homer while playing all three outfield positions.

Javier Assad, Cubs (SP): With starting pitchers dropping like flies, Assad stepped up and delivered a five-inning effort that wasn’t pretty (5 hits, 3 ER, 5 K) but got him win No. 6 on the season. It will never be pretty, but he can be effective.

Shallow League Misses

Kody Clemens, Twins (INF): There is a reason why he’s played for three teams in the past five seasons. Clemens is streaky and he’s just started a cold streak after going hitless for his past three games.

Deep League Hits

Matt Shaw, Cubs (2B,3B,OF): A homer and stolen base during the week is what you should expect from the Cubs usual right fielder.

Joe Mack, Marlins (C): Miami’s top catcher went 4-for-14 with a home run and 3 RBI, which likely makes him a top 10 catcher for your fantasy league.

Deep League Misses

JR Ritchie, Braves (SP): While the Braves need him in the rotation because of injuries, he has pitched so poorly in the MLB this season that they are going back to Reynoldo Lopez.

Andrew Vaughn, Brewers (1B): Being on the short side of the platoon has kept his counting stats low.

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The All Star debate really gets the people going. I posted my American League & National League All Star teams on X last night and predictably, the tweets have gone big.

The aren’t without their issues. Nobody wants to see Ernie Clement in the All Star game, right? He’s the leading vote-getter. That is ridiculous. There’s this phenomenon where the teams that made the World Series last year have their fans all jacked up for All Star voting so they spam the figurative ballot box like no other fan bases.

But after looking at the list of second basemen in the American League, I couldn’t not pick the guy. He leads in WAR, he’s a good defender, and he’s been good with the bat as well. He as a .753 OPS with a .294/.315/.438 slash line. That’s not an All Star OPS, but it’s up there with the best of the available options, and his defense pushes him over the finish line. It’s him or like Jazz Chisholm or Travis Bazzana… and neither of those guys deserve it.

I got criticized for putting Yordan Alvarez in right field. He doesn’t play right field, but whatever man. It was better than my first [deleted] tweet where I didn’t have him in there at all because he didn’t show up under any of the positions since he’s mostly played DH. It’s the All Star Game, it doesn’t matter - he can play a few innings in right field. If he doesn’t attempt to catch the ball, nobody will harmed.

I snubbed Shea Langeliers, but we’ve gotta give it to Dingler. He’s been better! At least hitting-wise:

I don’t know much about defense, because why would I care about that? I’m a fantasy baseball guy.

The NL team got less push back:

Cristopher Sanchez has blown it lately while Misiorowski is one of the biggest names in the sport. And that’s funny because remember last year - Misiorowski got a spot over Sanchez, and that was one of the most ridiculous things in All Star Game history. After last night’s Sanchez start, it’s clear that Misiorowski is the guy. But I wouldn’t be mad at them righting their wrong from last year by giving Sanchez the start. Not gonna happen, though.

And yeah, Bryan Reynolds in left field is questionable. His defense sucks and he has 11 homers, which is fine but not really like “we’ve gotta see this guy!” level. But he has an .883 OPS. He’s been excellent. That’s the best OPS in the league for a left fielder.

1B/3B in the NL is pretty unimpressive. And Drake Baldwin missed a lot of time. I’m not married to these votes. I don’t really care, I just wanted the engagement. Getting all upset about the All Star stuff is pretty childish. But I guess this whole thing is kinda childish. Dedicating hours a day to a game… I should probably be out building farms or fighting in a war or trading stocks or something.

SP DATA FROM YESTERDAY:

Bryce Miller is one of the best pitchers in the league, apparently. He’s now second in the league in K-BB% if you let his sample size in the game.

1. Misiorowski 32.6%

2. Bryce Miller 30.1%

3. Logan Henderson 26.7%

4. Dylan Cease 25.5%

5. Paul Skenes 25.5

He kinda lost the fastball last year, but it’s the whole way back.

Back in 2023 he came up throwing that thing like 70% of the time. And it was a great fastball and he had some success with it. Then her iped off 180 innings in 2024 with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. But 2025 was a bust with some injuries and whatever toll those injuries took.

And then people kinda dismissed him. But he’s better than ever right now.

A 57% Strike% on the four-seamer and a 57% mark on the splitter. That’s absurd stuff. He has developed a really deep pitch mix, which is pretty remarkable considering what he was doing when he was first coming up. He has SIX pitches above a 110 MLB DW grade, although there are many small samples at the pitch level.

So now you have a guy with an elite fastball and then a bunch of other good pitches. That’s how you become an ace. People are onto Miller, obviously. Everybody has noticed, but he’s probably even better than the average perception of him would suggest.

Cristopher Sanchez - 5.0IP 7H 5ER 5R 6K 1BB

He’s allowd 26 earned runs all year, and ten of them are in the last three. He’s given up four of his eight homers in these last three. He has just a 19% K% and a 4% BB% in these last three! Oh no!

It’s probably nothing to worry about. He has a 36% HR/FB the last three and the GB% is still 57%. So he’s doing the same stuff. The velo was down two starts ago but rebounded last night.

It’s probably as simple as natural regression. You’re going to give up hits and runs in the Majors, the hitters are very good. And he’s reliant on a changeup,a nd changeups aren’t the easiest pitch to have cooking every single time out.

Connelly Early - 6.0IP 5H 2ER 2R 9K 1BB

Good read by ME giving out the 7+ strikeout bet in the slate preview yesterday. Lefties match up well for strikeouts against the Judge-less Yankees lineup. Early split the four-seamers and sinkers well and put dudes away with the slider, sweeper, and changeup.

Not many guys have FF/SI/SL/ST/CH/CU in the arsenal. There are a lot of ways that Early can have success. And it was all working last night. He is a must-start guy, he’s just not a strikeout stud (23.5% this year). But maybe he can develop into a 26% K% guy. You really don’t know what’s coming, and he has decent command.

Lefties against the Yankees are good. The Red Sox roll out Payton Tolle tonight, so they’ve got a shot at a nice strikeou game there as well.

Troy Melton - 6.0IP 2H 1ER 1R 6K 0BB

This game was down in like 45 minutes. Melton & Imai both carved it up.

Melton has 5, 5, 5, and 6 strikeouts in his last four starts. That’s a 22% K% and a 5.3% BB% over his last four. He’s been great for the Tigers with a 2.39 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP.

But there’s a lot of bad news in the profile:

The 11.1% SwStr% is low, the 36% Ball% is average, and he gives up a ton of fly balls, and he’s been victimized by that with seven homers allowed in six starts. The Stuff+ isn’t very good, either, and his 43% Strike% is straight up terrible. But if we forgive his first two starts, it gets better:

The 17% K-BB%, 12.7% SwStr%, and 35% Ball% are better. He’s benefiting from a .133 BABIP, but being hurt by a 21% HR/FB.

So I’m not sure who Melton really is. Probably like a 23% K%, 6% BB%, and 1.3 HR/9 guy. Not great, but certainly deserving of a roster spot in 15 team leagues. And maybe there’s something deception-wise to boost him. The .256 xwOBA allowed suggests that.

I’m just saying I don’t think I’d want him in a ten-team league.

Tatsuya Imai - 6.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 10K 1BB

But here’s the most confusing pitcher in the league. He now has 36 whiffs in his last two starts with a 21:1 K:BB. I bought into him in the home league a couple of weeks ago, and then he went 0.2 innings giving up five runs on four hits, so I dropped him.

Since then he’s got 12 innings, 8 hits, 3 runs, 21 strikeouts, one walk.

Let’s look at his last six starts and try to figure it out.

The slider’s great. Those are elite numbers with the 19.8% SwStr%, 37% Ball%, and .186 xwOBA.

That plus the four-seamer make up 92% of his pitches. That’s immediately a concern, especially because his four-samer isn’t very good with a .372 xwOBA and 7.1% SwStr%. That’s a lot of hard contact while not getting by many bats.

Plus a 39% Ball%… I guess he’s just the guy we’ve seen. Sometimes he’ll be untouchable when he’s spotting the four-seamer and letting the slider go to work. But if doesn’t have the command, which seems to be pretty common right now, hitters take their walks, sit on the fastball, and do a lot of damage.

The upside would justify a spot in most leagues. And maybe he’l find a good rhythm and be really dominant for a good stretch of time. But he’s a two-pitch pitcher without a good fastball - that usually does not work.

Where’s the splitter man? He’s from Japan, you’re supposed to have a splitter! Is that profiling? Maybe, but it’s based on #science. Only 11 pitchers have thrown 260+ splitters this year, and four of them are Japanese.

That must be how they teach pitching over there.

Some dude asked this question on the baseball subreddit SEVEN years ago.

Why does the baseball subreddit have the pride whatever flag in the friggin main picture? I mean I know the answer, but that’s gotta be strange no matter what your ideological bent is, right? The two things have nothing to do with each other.

Reddit is a funny place. I don’t spend much time there, I think I’ve even been banned. I guess it’s just natural human behaviour. We segregate and segment off into places to be around people that are more like ourselves. And the Internet is virtual, so physical/material differences don’t play as big of a part. It’s all about worldview and ideology. So X is the place for the right wingers and Reddit is where the left wingers go.

I suppose it would be nice if we could just leave the social/political stuff out of the game entirely. Why do we need to discuss sex in any form or fashion in the arena of baseball? That’s easier to ask than to answer. We all have our core values and driving motivations that color every part of the world. I don’t think that’s wrong, but it causes tension.

My Christian world view influences everything for me. Nothing is independent of the base truths I believe in. I’d say it makes more sense to let your theological beliefs color your views on other things than it does to let your views on sexual matters do the same… but who am I? I could be wrong about everything, it’s possible. I try to mostly stay out of the fray these days. Seems to work better and lead to better outcomes.

Speaking of the fray…

I liked that band in the 2000’s. I’m not sure why. They don’t sound that great anymore. But they were popular and clean and acceptable in a Christian household, so I went with it.

How To Save a Life was a much better song than Over My Head, but things get popular for pretty non-organic ways in life. Everything is fake!

Back to the splitter conversation… here’s an answer on it:

Makes sense to me. Speaking of splitters and speaking of sexual social matters, this is a smooth transition to Gausman:

Kevin Gausman - 6.0IP 10H 6ER 6R 4K 2BB

I’m not saying Gausman is gay. I was making a joke about transgender stuff, I guess. It’s Friday, we’re letting it rip.

Gausman sucked last night. Second time in a row! 13 earned runs in his last two. That was his sixth time in 17 starts giving up 4+ earned runs.

The splitter giveth and the splitter taketh away. If you have it that day, you’ll be good. If you don’t, it gets ugly fast.

That’s data from Gausman’s last two tank jobs. The fastball has been the bigger problem. It’s getting murdered, but that might have something to do with the splitty. He’s not getting ahead in the count and he’s exposing himself to the hitter sitting on the four-seamer.

This is who Gausman has been for years. He’s up-and-down. You can never trust him in a given day. But his end-of-season numbers are usually good.

I played him in DFS CASH last night but won anyways thanks to Schlittler (the Sanchez fade) and a bomb from 11% owned Okamoto. I’m back on the horse and ready to cash it again tonight.

Cade Cavalli - 6.0IP 5H 2ER 2R 7K 1BB

Our boy CADE. Haven’t checked in on him awhile. Good start last night against the Phillies before the Nationals bullpen brutally ruined it AGAIN.

Cavalli has been better than average. His 1.43 WHIP is way too high for a 16% K-BB%. But he’s got a .350 BABIP against, that’s very bad luck.

That’s the worst BABIP in baseball if you ignore the fact that the top two are horrible Rockies pitchers.

So Cade can be better than a 4.00 ERA and a lot better than a 1.40 WHIP.

Pretty good marks on the four-seamer (51% Strike% is good), and the curveball is very good. Plus a sinker/sweepy/change to mix it up. He’s a solid pitcher and could end up having a very nice second half if the BABIP comes down to where it should be (.320?).

Bubba Chandler - 5.33IP 5H 1ER 1R 4K 3BB

I thought we might be seeing Chandler really start to figure it out. He allowed just one run in this one against the Mariners, but he was pretty lucky. Just a 40% Strike% and 39% Ball%. He was not impressive. But his walk rate is down to 9% over his last six starts with a decent 23% K% and a good .289 xwOBA. He is going to be tough to square up with the velo he has, and the changeup seems to be getting better.

I don’t know, he’s probably no good for 12-team leagues, I’m just trying to be hopeful.

Freddy Peralta - 5.67IP 5H 0ER 3R 5K 1BB

There ya go Peralta! Still not dominant by any means, but five strikeouts and no [earned] runs. I talked about him as a buy low on the podcast yesterday.

Hitters

I’ve gotta get this done. We’ve got waivers and a big Friday night slate preview to get to.

But Junior Caminero hit three bombs, so that’s cool.

Brandon Marsh should probably be an All Star.

Henry Davis - shout out to the Pirates .

And look at little old Dylan Crews kinda warming up.

I think he’s going to figure it out eventually, and maybe he already has. He hits the ball hard and doesn’t strike out much, it’s just a launch angle game he has to win. But the steals will come, he’s always done that when he’s been able to find his way to first base (not often, yet).

That’s it, goodbye!

Pitcher Reports

Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday

1. Bryce Miller

2. Cam Schlittler

3. Connelly Early

4. Troy Melton

5. Jeffrey Springs

6. Tatsuya Imai

7. Cristopher Sanchez

8. Cade Cavalli

9. Matthew Boyd

10. MacKenzie Gore

11. Kevin Gausman

12. Landen Roupp

13. Seth Lugo

14. Bubba Chandler

15. Freddy Peralta

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Tatsuya Imai (vs. DET): 35.7 Points

2. Ian Seymour (vs. KC): 32.41 Points

3. Connelly Early (vs. NYY): 27.9 Points

4. Bryce Miller (vs. PIT): 25.76 Points

5. Cam Schlittler (vs. BOS): 25.05 Points

6. Troy Melton (vs. HOU): 22.3 Points

7. MacKenzie Gore (vs. TOR): 20.75 Points

8. Cade Cavalli (vs. PHI): 19.9 Points

9. Freddy Peralta (vs. CHC): 19.16 Points

10. Landen Roupp (vs. ATH): 17.3 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Bryce Miller (SEA): 19 Whiffs (90 Pitches)

2. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 17 Whiffs (92 Pitches)

3. Connelly Early (BOS): 17 Whiffs (98 Pitches)

4. Cam Schlittler (NYY): 16 Whiffs (92 Pitches)

5. Tatsuya Imai (HOU): 16 Whiffs (96 Pitches)

6. Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 15 Whiffs (87 Pitches)

7. Cade Cavalli (WSH): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)

8. Troy Melton (DET): 15 Whiffs (88 Pitches)

9. Matthew Boyd (CHC): 14 Whiffs (76 Pitches)

10. Ian Seymour (TB): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Bryce Miller (SEA): 61.1 Strike%, 26.7 Ball%

2. Ian Seymour (TB): 60.0 Strike%, 25.6 Ball%

3. Connelly Early (BOS): 57.1 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%

4. Tatsuya Imai (HOU): 55.2 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%

5. Cade Cavalli (WSH): 54.6 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%

6. Cam Schlittler (NYY): 54.3 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%

7. Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 52.9 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%

8. Troy Melton (DET): 51.1 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%

9. MacKenzie Gore (TEX): 48.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%

10. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 46.7 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%

11. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 45.5 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%

12. Landen Roupp (SF): 44.4 Strike%, 40.7 Ball%

13. Matthew Boyd (CHC): 43.4 Strike%, 39.5 Ball%

14. Seth Lugo (KC): 42.2 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%

15. Bubba Chandler (PIT): 40.0 Strike%, 38.7 Ball%

Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday

1. Ian Seymour: 90 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.5 POUT

2. MacKenzie Gore: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT

3. Bubba Chandler: 75 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.69 POUT

4. Troy Melton: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT

5. Bryce Miller: 90 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.29 POUT

6. Tatsuya Imai: 96 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.33 POUT

7. Cade Cavalli: 97 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.39 POUT

8. Matthew Boyd: 76 Pitches, 14 Outs, 5.43 POUT

9. Jeffrey Springs: 87 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.44 POUT

10. Connelly Early: 98 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.44 POUT

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Troy Melton’s FC velo (24 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 93.5

Cam Schlittler’s FC velo (37 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 95.7

Landen Roupp’s FC velo (13 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 90.6

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Cam Schlittler’s FC usage (40.2%) up 18.2 points

Cristopher Sanchez’s SL usage (28.3%) up 11.1 points

Troy Melton’s FC usage (27.3%) up 13.5 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Slade Cecconi Slider: +21.0%

Logan Gilbert 4-Seam Fastball: +20.2%

Javier Assad 4-Seam Fastball: +19.8%

Tanner Bibee Sinker: +19.4%

Joey Cantillo 4-Seam Fastball: -18.7%

Logan Webb Sinker: -17.8%

Roki Sasaki Split-Finger: +16.6%

Brandon Woodruff 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%

Slade Cecconi 4-Seam Fastball: -15.5%

Gavin Williams Sinker: +15.3%

Joey Cantillo Cutter: +15.3%

Tanner Bibee Changeup: -14.9%

Stephen Kolek Slider: +14.7%

Roki Sasaki Forkball: -14.4%

Robbie Ray Sinker: +14.0%

Eury Perez Sinker: +13.3%

Griffin Jax 4-Seam Fastball: -13.3%

Shota Imanaga 4-Seam Fastball: +12.8%

Joey Cantillo Curveball: +12.8%

Javier Assad Sinker: -12.8%

Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%

Bryce Elder Sinker: +12.2%

Trey Gibson Cutter: -12.2%

Kai-Wei Teng 4-Seam Fastball: +12.1%

Bad Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Bryce Elder - 36.0 RISP H%, 0.463 BABIP, 38.0 HR/FB, 182.0 Luck Score

Tobias Myers - 46.0 RISP H%, 0.429 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 177.0 Luck Score

Gavin Williams - 50.0 RISP H%, 0.37 BABIP, 29.0 HR/FB, 175.0 Luck Score

Matthew Liberatore - 40.0 RISP H%, 0.359 BABIP, 36.0 HR/FB, 173.0 Luck Score

Brad Lord - 33.0 RISP H%, 0.368 BABIP, 40.0 HR/FB, 170.0 Luck Score

Emmet Sheehan - 25.0 RISP H%, 0.409 BABIP, 43.0 HR/FB, 165.0 Luck Score

Stephen Kolek - 29.0 RISP H%, 0.355 BABIP, 50.0 HR/FB, 162.0 Luck Score

Tatsuya Imai - 33.0 RISP H%, 0.407 BABIP, 25.0 HR/FB, 162.0 Luck Score

Shane McClanahan - 35.0 RISP H%, 0.341 BABIP, 38.0 HR/FB, 161.0 Luck Score

Jack Leiter - 40.0 RISP H%, 0.387 BABIP, 22.0 HR/FB, 161.0 Luck Score

Good Luck Pitchers - Last 15 Days

Robert Gasser - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.214 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 21.0 Luck Score

Kyle Harrison - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.188 BABIP, 7.0 HR/FB, 23.0 Luck Score

Gage Jump - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.25 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 29.0 Luck Score

AJ Blubaugh - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.25 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 29.0 Luck Score

Tanner Bibee - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.146 BABIP, 13.0 HR/FB, 31.0 Luck Score

Logan Webb - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.244 BABIP, 6.0 HR/FB, 34.0 Luck Score

Shota Imanaga - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.2 BABIP, 13.0 HR/FB, 37.0 Luck Score

Brady Singer - 20.0 RISP H%, 0.179 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 39.0 Luck Score

Troy Melton - 0.0 RISP H%, 0.038 BABIP, 18.0 HR/FB, 39.0 Luck Score

Jacob Misiorowski - 17.0 RISP H%, 0.214 BABIP, 0.0 HR/FB, 40.0 Luck Score

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jacob Misiorowski - 80 TBF, 37.0% CSW%

Jesus Luzardo - 107 TBF, 34.8% CSW%

Tatsuya Imai - 76 TBF, 34.3% CSW%

Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 34.0% CSW%

Brady Singer - 91 TBF, 33.1% CSW%

Sean Burke - 94 TBF, 32.8% CSW%

Dylan Cease - 68 TBF, 32.8% CSW%

Trey Gibson - 85 TBF, 32.7% CSW%

Jack Perkins - 82 TBF, 32.5% CSW%

Kyle Bradish - 100 TBF, 32.4% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Bryce Miller - 84 TBF, 40.5% K%

Tatsuya Imai - 76 TBF, 39.5% K%

Dylan Cease - 68 TBF, 38.2% K%

Jacob Misiorowski - 80 TBF, 37.5% K%

Drew Rasmussen - 96 TBF, 35.4% K%

Paul Skenes - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%

Cam Schlittler - 99 TBF, 34.3% K%

Logan Gilbert - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%

Chase Burns - 67 TBF, 31.3% K%

Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 30.9% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Bryce Miller - 84 TBF, 38.1% K-BB%

Tatsuya Imai - 76 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%

Jacob Misiorowski - 80 TBF, 32.5% K-BB%

Drew Rasmussen - 96 TBF, 32.3% K-BB%

Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 27.9% K-BB%

Paul Skenes - 72 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%

Cam Schlittler - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%

Logan Gilbert - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%

Dylan Cease - 68 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%

Joe Ryan - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Framber Valdez - 96 TBF, 66.7% GB%

Andre Pallante - 72 TBF, 65.5% GB%

Will Warren - 69 TBF, 58.7% GB%

Martin Perez - 84 TBF, 58.6% GB%

Jose Soriano - 87 TBF, 58.3% GB%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 79 TBF, 58.3% GB%

Cristopher Sanchez - 100 TBF, 57.7% GB%

Walbert Urena - 74 TBF, 56.2% GB%

Slade Cecconi - 69 TBF, 55.8% GB%

Connelly Early - 98 TBF, 55.0% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Cam Schlittler - 99 TBF, 34.3 K%, 7.1 BB%, 43.6% GB%

Chad Patrick - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 7.8 BB%, 45.5% GB%

Chris Sale - 48 TBF, 27.1 K%, 4.2 BB%, 43.8% GB%

Drew Rasmussen - 96 TBF, 35.4 K%, 3.1 BB%, 44.8% GB%

Dustin May - 63 TBF, 27.0 K%, 4.8 BB%, 44.2% GB%

Jacob Misiorowski - 80 TBF, 37.5 K%, 5.0 BB%, 46.7% GB%

Jake Bennett - 63 TBF, 28.6 K%, 0.0 BB%, 47.7% GB%

Parker Messick - 99 TBF, 27.3 K%, 7.1 BB%, 47.7% GB%

Paul Skenes - 72 TBF, 34.7 K%, 6.9 BB%, 45.0% GB%

Spencer Arrighetti - 76 TBF, 28.9 K%, 6.6 BB%, 44.7% GB%

Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 30.9 K%, 2.9 BB%, 47.7% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Jacob Misiorowski - +3.1% CSW%, -3.5 BB%

Andre Pallante - +2.6% CSW%, -5.8 BB%

Anthony Kay - +5.8% CSW%, -2.7 BB%

Dustin May - +4.1% CSW%, -3.3 BB%

Kumar Rocker - +5.1% CSW%, -2.1 BB%

Brandon Sproat - +6.0% CSW%, -4.8 BB%

Brent Suter - +5.1% CSW%, -3.6 BB%

Casey Mize - +3.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%

Hitter Reports

Multiple Barrels

Jake Burger (TEX) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Junior Caminero (TB) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 3 Barrels, 3 HR

Hardest Hit Balls

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 115.7mph - field_out

Willson Contreras (BOS) - 112.8mph - fielders_choice

Taylor Trammell (HOU) - 110.6mph - None

Taylor Trammell (HOU) - 110.5mph - home_run

Davis Schneider (TOR) - 110.2mph - None

Carlos Narvaez (BOS) - 110.1mph - single

Derek Hill (PHI) - 109.8mph - home_run

Amed Rosario (NYY) - 109.3mph - field_out

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 108.8mph - single

Victor Bericoto (SF) - 108.7mph - home_run

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Julio Rodriguez - 78 PA, 0.267 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff

Miguel Vargas - 70 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.389 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 68 PA, 0.213 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff

Steven Kwan - 54 PA, 0.277 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff

Salvador Perez - 68 PA, 0.201 wOBA, 0.264 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff

Matt McLain - 57 PA, 0.348 wOBA, 0.401 xwOBA, 0.053 Diff

Isaac Collins - 67 PA, 0.295 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, 0.052 Diff

J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.049 Diff

Nico Hoerner - 75 PA, 0.238 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, 0.048 Diff

Andy Pages - 82 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.316 xwOBA, 0.048 Diff

Bottom 10

T.J. Rumfield - 77 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.251 xwOBA, -0.172 Diff

Zack Gelof - 67 PA, 0.457 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, -0.166 Diff

Paul Goldschmidt - 77 PA, 0.433 wOBA, 0.282 xwOBA, -0.151 Diff

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 86 PA, 0.555 wOBA, 0.409 xwOBA, -0.146 Diff

Nasim Nunez - 63 PA, 0.417 wOBA, 0.278 xwOBA, -0.139 Diff

Caleb Durbin - 62 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff

Jake Burger - 69 PA, 0.429 wOBA, 0.325 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff

Dansby Swanson - 63 PA, 0.385 wOBA, 0.282 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff

Liam Hicks - 58 PA, 0.376 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff

Bo Bichette - 83 PA, 0.426 wOBA, 0.331 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15

Casey Schmitt: 28.0 PA, +0.21 xwOBA OE

William Contreras: 35.0 PA, +0.183 xwOBA OE

Kyle Schwarber: 32.0 PA, +0.161 xwOBA OE

Jac Caglianone: 41.0 PA, +0.156 xwOBA OE

Kyle Stowers: 29.0 PA, +0.152 xwOBA OE

Brandon Nimmo: 39.0 PA, +0.14 xwOBA OE

Trevor Larnach: 30.0 PA, +0.109 xwOBA OE

Bryan Reynolds: 33.0 PA, +0.109 xwOBA OE

Henry Bolte: 38.0 PA, +0.103 xwOBA OE

Bryce Harper: 39.0 PA, +0.099 xwOBA OE

Zach Neto: 37.0 PA, +0.09 xwOBA OE

Freddie Freeman: 34.0 PA, +0.088 xwOBA OE

Josh Bell: 33.0 PA, +0.086 xwOBA OE

Francisco Alvarez: 37.0 PA, +0.084 xwOBA OE

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 33.0 PA, +0.082 xwOBA OE

Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15

Drake Baldwin: 28.0 PA, -0.218 xwOBA OE

Chase Meidroth: 35.0 PA, -0.166 xwOBA OE

Jo Adell: 36.0 PA, -0.161 xwOBA OE

Rhys Hoskins: 36.0 PA, -0.16 xwOBA OE

Daniel Schneemann: 30.0 PA, -0.151 xwOBA OE

Xavier Edwards: 28.0 PA, -0.126 xwOBA OE

Nathan Lukes: 28.0 PA, -0.12 xwOBA OE

Daylen Lile: 31.0 PA, -0.12 xwOBA OE

Hunter Goodman: 30.0 PA, -0.113 xwOBA OE

Nick Gonzales: 34.0 PA, -0.106 xwOBA OE

JJ Bleday: 31.0 PA, -0.103 xwOBA OE

Spencer Steer: 30.0 PA, -0.1 xwOBA OE

Chandler Simpson: 36.0 PA, -0.098 xwOBA OE

Jackson Chourio: 39.0 PA, -0.098 xwOBA OE

Leody Taveras: 35.0 PA, -0.097 xwOBA OE

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Shohei Ohtani - 68 PA, 39 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.6 Brl%

Matt McLain - 57 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%

Owen Caissie - 48 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%

Byron Buxton - 68 PA, 48 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.9 Brl%

Jac Caglianone - 76 PA, 46 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.7 Brl%

Zach Neto - 84 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%

Jackson Holliday - 52 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%

Kyle Stowers - 72 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%

Nick Kurtz - 86 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%

Colt Keith - 50 PA, 38 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.4 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Jac Caglianone - 76 PA, 0.484 xwOBA

Shohei Ohtani - 68 PA, 0.466 xwOBA

Juan Soto - 70 PA, 0.44 xwOBA

Freddie Freeman - 78 PA, 0.437 xwOBA

Alec Burleson - 81 PA, 0.434 xwOBA

Dominic Canzone - 57 PA, 0.434 xwOBA

William Contreras - 74 PA, 0.434 xwOBA

Yordan Alvarez - 77 PA, 0.432 xwOBA

Byron Buxton - 68 PA, 0.427 xwOBA

Blaze Alexander - 50 PA, 0.427 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 65 PA, 131 Swings, 92.4 Cont%

Jung Hoo Lee - 67 PA, 120 Swings, 90.8 Cont%

Chandler Simpson - 56 PA, 81 Swings, 90.1 Cont%

Isaac Collins - 67 PA, 104 Swings, 89.4 Cont%

Javier Sanoja - 51 PA, 86 Swings, 88.4 Cont%

Nicky Lopez - 47 PA, 85 Swings, 88.2 Cont%

Nico Hoerner - 75 PA, 136 Swings, 88.2 Cont%

Bobby Witt Jr. - 56 PA, 90 Swings, 87.8 Cont%

Cole Young - 79 PA, 137 Swings, 87.6 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 73 PA, 121 Swings, 87.6 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Nasim Nunez - 6 Attempts (6 steals)

Chandler Simpson - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Henry Bolte - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Samad Taylor - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Anthony Volpe - 4 Attempts (2 steals)

Jackson Merrill - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Jasson Dominguez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Jose Caballero - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Cooper Pratt - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Dansby Swanson - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Drew Gilbert - 3 Attempts (0 steals)

Jared Triolo - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Luisangel Acuna - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jake Mangum - 3 Attempts (1 steals)

Caleb Durbin - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Bryson Stott - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Otto Lopez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Brandon Marsh - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Ceddanne Rafaela - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Julio Rodriguez - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

George Springer - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Jacob Young - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Andres Gimenez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Wilyer Abreu - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Jeremy Pena - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Bobby Witt Jr. - 13 Attempts (12 steals)

Jake Mangum - 12 Attempts (8 steals)

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 12 Attempts (11 steals)

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 11 Attempts (8 steals)

Nasim Nunez - 10 Attempts (9 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 9 Attempts (6 steals)

Ceddanne Rafaela - 9 Attempts (7 steals)

Jakob Marsee - 8 Attempts (4 steals)

David Hamilton - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Otto Lopez - 8 Attempts (8 steals)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 8 Attempts (6 steals)

Randy Arozarena - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Samad Taylor - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Geraldo Perdomo - 7 Attempts (3 steals)

Julio Rodriguez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Anthony Volpe - 7 Attempts (5 steals)

Luisangel Acuna - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Dansby Swanson - 7 Attempts (7 steals)

Jeremy Pena - 7 Attempts (6 steals)

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Blaze Alexander - 50 PA, 10.0 K%, 15.4 Brl%

Bryan Reynolds - 76 PA, 19.7 K%, 17.3 Brl%

Colt Keith - 50 PA, 18.0 K%, 18.4 Brl%

Dominic Canzone - 57 PA, 15.8 K%, 16.7 Brl%

Joc Pederson - 65 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.2 Brl%

Joe Mack - 48 PA, 18.8 K%, 14.7 Brl%

Luis Garcia Jr. - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 16.7 Brl%

Victor Caratini - 48 PA, 14.6 K%, 14.7 Brl%

Yordan Alvarez - 77 PA, 15.6 K%, 17.9 Brl%

Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers

Jac Caglianone - 114 PA, +0.109 xwOBA

Pete Crow-Armstrong - 130 PA, +0.1 xwOBA

Mauricio Dubon - 95 PA, +0.085 xwOBA

Bryan Reynolds - 117 PA, +0.083 xwOBA

Michael Massey - 86 PA, +0.058 xwOBA

Lane Thomas - 96 PA, +0.052 xwOBA

Matt Chapman - 106 PA, +0.051 xwOBA

Joc Pederson - 104 PA, +0.049 xwOBA

Gabriel Moreno - 93 PA, +0.048 xwOBA

Jung Hoo Lee - 96 PA, +0.047 xwOBA

Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers

Spencer Horwitz - 115 PA, +7.5 Brl%

Joc Pederson - 104 PA, +7.4 Brl%

Bryan Reynolds - 117 PA, +7.3 Brl%

Curtis Mead - 101 PA, +6.8 Brl%

Jackson Holliday - 80 PA, +6.7 Brl%

Hunter Goodman - 110 PA, +6.5 Brl%

Brandon Marsh - 105 PA, +5.7 Brl%

Samuel Basallo - 89 PA, +5.5 Brl%

Nick Kurtz - 120 PA, +5.4 Brl%

Yordan Alvarez - 118 PA, +5.4 Brl%

Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers

Lane Thomas - 96 PA, +11.5 Cont%

Zack Gelof - 99 PA, +10.8 Cont%

JJ Wetherholt - 101 PA, +9.6 Cont%

Cole Young - 113 PA, +9.6 Cont%

Troy Johnston - 92 PA, +9.1 Cont%

Carter Jensen - 108 PA, +8.8 Cont%

Josh Naylor - 102 PA, +8.0 Cont%

Randy Arozarena - 82 PA, +7.8 Cont%

Isaac Collins - 93 PA, +7.3 Cont%

Tyler Soderstrom - 110 PA, +7.2 Cont%

Last 30 Days - K% Improvers

Zack Gelof - 99 PA, -12.1 K%

Troy Johnston - 92 PA, -11.5 K%

Cole Young - 113 PA, -10.3 K%

Colton Cowser - 92 PA, -9.8 K%

Juan Soto - 104 PA, -9.2 K%

JJ Wetherholt - 101 PA, -8.4 K%

Tyler Soderstrom - 110 PA, -8.4 K%

Gunnar Henderson - 126 PA, -8.1 K%

Willi Castro - 110 PA, -7.7 K%

Bryan Reynolds - 117 PA, -7.7 K%

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Increasers (75th Percentile)

Alec Burleson: +2.6

Brice Matthews: +2.4

Salvador Perez: +2.32

Lawrence Butler: +2.3

Luke Keaschall: +2.25

Last 7 Days - Bat Speed Decreasers (75th Percentile)

Zach McKinstry: -2.9

Rhys Hoskins: -2.88

Brett Baty: -2.7

Jonathan Aranda: -2.3

Carter Jensen: -2.1

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Lars Nootbaar - 0.402 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 80.3% Contact%, 20.7% Chase%, 20.8% K%

William Contreras - 0.464 xwOBA, 10.8% Brl%, 79.0% Contact%, 24.7% Chase%, 10.4% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Coby Mayo - 47.3% Whiff%, 85.7% Weak%, 0.998 Cold Rating

Daniel Schneemann - 40.5% Whiff%, 72.2% Weak%, 0.944 Cold Rating

Rhys Hoskins - 36.1% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.935 Cold Rating

Eugenio Suarez - 41.1% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.924 Cold Rating

Brett Baty - 34.9% Whiff%, 72.2% Weak%, 0.899 Cold Rating

Alejandro Kirk - 30.8% Whiff%, 80.8% Weak%, 0.899 Cold Rating

Tyler Callihan - 34.9% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.888 Cold Rating

Leody Taveras - 31.5% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating

Hunter Goodman - 38.6% Whiff%, 67.7% Weak%, 0.874 Cold Rating

Jarren Duran - 34.6% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.857 Cold Rating

Minor League Reports

Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday

Lazaro Montes (SEA): 4/5, 4R, 2HR, 6RBI, 0SB, 48FPts

Ruben Ibarra (CIN): 3/5, 3R, 2HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 33FPts

Tyler Hardman (NYY): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 32FPts

Caleb Cali (SEA): 2/3, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 30FPts

Patrick Clohisy (ATL): 3/4, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 30FPts

Dylan Dreiling (TEX): 2/5, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 30FPts

Dylan Moore (PHI): 3/4, 3R, 0HR, 1RBI, 2SB, 29FPts

Peyton Graham (DET): 3/4, 2R, 0HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 29FPts

Frainyer Chavez (TEX): 4/5, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 29FPts

Jansel Luis (ARI): 3/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 28FPts

Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday

Gage Stanifer (TOR): 90 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 9K, 1BB, 31FPts

Gabriel Hughes (COL): 82 Pitches, 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 6K, 1BB, 27FPts

Brandon White - 681449 (MIA): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 7K, 1BB, 27FPts

Christian Zazueta (LAD): 60 Pitches, 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 8K, 0BB, 26FPts

Yunior Marte - 805074 (SF): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 5H, 2ER, 10K, 2BB, 24FPts

Jamie Arnold (OAK): 88 Pitches, 6IP, 1H, 0ER, 4K, 2BB, 23FPts

Luke Russo (PHI): 86 Pitches, 6IP, 6H, 2ER, 7K, 1BB, 23FPts

Lucas Gordon (CWS): 83 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 2ER, 8K, 0BB, 23FPts

Charles King (PHI): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 5K, 1BB, 23FPts

Cedric De Grandpre (ATL): 95 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 2ER, 7K, 4BB, 22FPts

AA-AAA OPS Leaders

Owen Ayers (AA - CHC) 217 PA 1.039 OPS

Sean Keys (AAA - TOR) 286 PA 1.028 OPS

Danny Serretti (AAA - ARI) 241 PA 1.017 OPS

Drew Cavanaugh (AAA - SF) 227 PA 0.999 OPS

James Tibbs III (AAA - LAD) 345 PA 0.999 OPS

Manuel Pena (AAA - ARI) 309 PA 0.989 OPS

Zac Veen (AAA - COL) 301 PA 0.989 OPS

Franklin Arias (AA - BOS) 264 PA 0.982 OPS

Jay Harry (AAA - TOR) 229 PA 0.97 OPS

Joshua Baez (AAA - STL) 312 PA 0.969 OPS

Cooper Ingle (AAA - CLE) 221 PA 0.967 OPS

David McCabe (AA - ATL) 220 PA 0.962 OPS

Josue De Paula (AA - LAD) 322 PA 0.962 OPS

Ben Ross (AAA - MIN) 286 PA 0.957 OPS

BJ Murray Jr. (AAA - CHC) 302 PA 0.957 OPS

Charlie Condon (AAA - COL) 316 PA 0.945 OPS

Pablo Reyes (AAA - SD) 240 PA 0.939 OPS

Garrett Martin (AAA - NYY) 313 PA 0.937 OPS

Jack Suwinski (AAA - LAD) 303 PA 0.935 OPS

Cade Marlowe (AAA - OAK) 293 PA 0.933 OPS

AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders

Kade Anderson (AA - SEA) 61 IP 37.4% K-BB

Brandon White - 681449 (AAA - MIA) 62 IP 25.5% K-BB

Joe Whitman (AAA - SF) 72 IP 23.5% K-BB

Karson Milbrandt (AAA - MIA) 62 IP 23.5% K-BB

Jackson Kent (AAA - WSH) 58 IP 23.4% K-BB

Adam Seminaris (AA - PHI) 70 IP 23.0% K-BB

Cesar Perdomo (AA - SF) 61 IP 22.5% K-BB

Carlos Pena (AA - DET) 55 IP 21.8% K-BB

Gage Ziehl (AA - BOS) 59 IP 21.1% K-BB

Shinnosuke Ogasawara (AA - WSH) 58 IP 20.5% K-BB

Tyson Hardin (AAA - MIL) 69 IP 20.4% K-BB

Manuel Rodriguez - 804973 (AA - MIL) 63 IP 20.1% K-BB

Mason Molina (AA - STL) 62 IP 20.0% K-BB

Bruce Zimmermann (AAA - STL) 72 IP 18.9% K-BB

Daniel Eagen (AA - ARI) 59 IP 18.7% K-BB

Carlos Lagrange (AAA - NYY) 62 IP 18.6% K-BB

Brendan Beck (AAA - NYY) 81 IP 18.4% K-BB

Kyle Carr (AA - NYY) 61 IP 18.2% K-BB

Logan Allen - 671106 (AAA - CLE) 63 IP 18.0% K-BB

Jose Urquidy (AAA - PIT) 57 IP 17.9% K-BB

Today’s SP Streamer Picks

Andrew Alvarez (10.0% Owned): Projected 5.21IP 2.11ER 5.74SO 2.06BB 16.15FPts

Joey Cantillo (45.0% Owned): Projected 6.08IP 2.78ER 5.36SO 2.8BB 15.09FPts

David Sandlin (4.0% Owned): Projected 4.9IP 1.98ER 4.71SO 1.77BB 14.17FPts

OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS

Caleb Durbin - 33 PA, 1.261 OPS

Trevor Larnach - 30 PA, 1.207 OPS

Jake Burger - 31 PA, 1.012 OPS

Francisco Alvarez - 37 PA, 1.011 OPS

Nolan Schanuel - 33 PA, 0.996 OPS

Jake McCarthy - 37 PA, 0.977 OPS

Denzer Guzman - 35 PA, 0.958 OPS

Josh Bell - 33 PA, 0.924 OPS

Anthony Volpe - 39 PA, 0.916 OPS

Lars Nootbaar - 29 PA, 0.914 OPS

Today’s Hitter Streamer Picks

Kody Clemens LF (47.0% Owned): Projected 0.78R 0.27HR 0.81RBI 0.8SO 0.29BB 0.08SB 9.85FPts

Josh Bell 1B (26.0% Owned): Projected 0.73R 0.23HR 0.85RBI 0.68SO 0.39BB 0.02SB 9.47FPts

Trevor Larnach LF (13.0% Owned): Projected 0.86R 0.16HR 0.62RBI 0.74SO 0.46BB 0.04SB 9.11FPts

Jake McCarthy LF (31.0% Owned): Projected 0.77R 0.14HR 0.55RBI 0.8SO 0.33BB 0.21SB 9.08FPts

Jake Mangum CF (14.0% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.07HR 0.5RBI 0.68SO 0.26BB 0.23SB 8.73FPts

Heriberto Hernandez LF (5.0% Owned): Projected 0.63R 0.16HR 0.73RBI 0.85SO 0.36BB 0.11SB 8.73FPts

Nolan Schanuel 1B (24.0% Owned): Projected 0.71R 0.13HR 0.59RBI 0.73SO 0.52BB 0.05SB 8.64FPts

Carlos Cortes 2B (21.0% Owned): Projected 0.64R 0.16HR 0.71RBI 0.67SO 0.45BB 0.03SB 8.55FPts

Garrett Mitchell CF (21.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.16HR 0.68RBI 1.19SO 0.57BB 0.13SB 8.47FPts

Cole Carrigg C (42.0% Owned): Projected 0.58R 0.1HR 0.61RBI 0.94SO 0.43BB 0.29SB 8.29FPts