MLB Data Warehouse: MLB DW DFS & Betting

The Daily Slip 5-26

Trevor — Tue, 26 May 2026 21:20:12 GMT

Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Well yesterday the Nats saw the same preview we saw. They looked at that same data and said, “How about we don’t do that?” We got an opener instead, which changed the lineup and didn’t work in our favor and we didn’t get to bet some of the Guardians. Unfortunately we took an L on a couple of them but we still came out up almost a unit for the day overall. We hit our free play for the day in Murakami.

If you checked out the show today, you heard John and I talk about Jack Leiter today and his matchup he gets to face. The Astros, with their current lineup and the injuries they have, have a much higher K rate than we’ve come to expect out of them last season. Walker, Cam Smith, Zach Cole, they should have some guys in there with pretty significant rates today.

Jack Leiter TEX O 5.5k +102 1u

Now onto the fun stuff. We have some home run projections we really like today.

MLB DW Slate Breakdown - May 26

Jon A — Tue, 26 May 2026 16:21:20 GMT

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Trevor and I will be going live again on X. That seemed to be a big hit last week, and it’s gotta be up there on my list of most fun things to do. Breaking down MLB DFS and betting stuff live on video. We’ll start that around 1pm eastern. So keep a lookout.

But I’m back on the keys after Trevor handled it over the long weekend. I’m excited to get into it.

Weather

It was not a fun weekend for rainouts, but we’re in the clear today.

It’s a little cold out west! But high temps and no rain issues everywhere else.

Home Run Susceptibility

I love this sheet that is buried in there on the MLB DW Season Long Data workbook. It will look back to last year to find home run rates allowed to lefties and righties, and it will work in some park factors to give you a score.

The biggest spots to target:

Rockies RHB vs. Lauer
- Goodman
Athletics LHB vs. Hancock
- Kurtz, Soderstrom
Rangers vs. Jason Alexander
- They all suck so I guess nobody? Evan Carter?
Padres LHB vs. Nola
- Sheets, Merrill
Dodgers RHB vs. Freeland
- Betts, Pages, Smith, Hernandez
Rays LHB vs. Baz
- Victor Mesa Jr.
Red Sox LHB vs. Strider
- Abreu, Duran
Joe Ryan LHB vs. White Sox
- Murakami, Montgomery

BOOM Hitters

The Daily Slip 5-25

Trevor — Mon, 25 May 2026 16:26:09 GMT

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Alright boys and girls, for our free play of the day we are going with Munetaka Murakami against Zebby Matthews. Zebby has been giving up a 45% fly ball rate and the odds are mispriced here. Murakami to go yard at MGM is +200 and it’s +310 at FanDuel for a guy with 75% bat speed and 22% barrel rate. We know he’s going to K a ton but when he makes contact that’s just too big a spread to not take advantage of today.

Munetaka Murakami O .5 HR +310 .5u and O 1.5 HR +2800 .2u

One of our favorite pitchers to go after this season is throwing today.

The Main Slate 5-25

Trevor — Mon, 25 May 2026 14:42:22 GMT

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Happy Memorial Day to all of our subscribers and readers, to everyone that is served and has been impacted by this day. We wish you a happy Memorial Day.

I want to address something upfront. I use a tool for voice-to-text because I write so much every single week. Yes I had a mistake in the article Saturday morning that I didn’t catch when I was auditing it. What I do is I just talk into the mic, I format it how I want, and then I go through and audit it. Yes I’m human. You caught me. It’s going to happen. I hope it doesn’t ever but I try to go through and look at it and make sure everything is there.

Second the big money is on the earlier six-game slate versus the five-game slate tonight so I’m writing this up early. Remember I’m on the West Coast so it is crack of dawn as this article’s coming out.

The Daily Slip 5-23

Trevor — Sat, 23 May 2026 16:23:12 GMT

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

We took it easy yesterday and I’m glad we did. I didn’t love the slate. I didn’t love the value on it so we just had a few bets. Frankly we lost a couple units. That’s okay. We’re still massively up on the season and that’s why we had a light day. Some of the days it’s about just not pressing if you don’t see any value on the card. We are still up 36 units for the year.

We already have the Yankees game canceled today. We’re most likely going to see Cleveland, Philly, Detroit, and Baltimore cancel as well. We’re having to pay attention to what we believe the weather will do in today’s game.

I blamed Jon for deGrom’s outing yesterday. He looked absolutely terrible and just didn’t show up. It’s going to happen some days. That was kind of sad to watch. We might go back to a Evoaldi here tonight just because the Angels’ K rate against righties is too much to pass up.

First up though, we’re going to attack the Cincy game early and go after Mr. Andre with some Cincy bats.

JJ Bleday CIN O 1.5 H,R,RBI -125 1u and O .5 HR +425 .5u

So Bleday continues to just be absolutely on fire. He has a.380 ISO this season and a.690 slugging and a.466 x2OBA versus right-handed pitching this season. Batting lead off today and getting his hits, runs, and RBIs at only -125, when we have that being -170, is great value. With the wind blowing the way it is, he might be able to take one out opposite field.

The next play I really like in this game…………..

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DFS Main Slate 5-23 (Weather is an issue today)

Trevor — Sat, 23 May 2026 16:01:59 GMT

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The Slate Take

We’re working with a five-game main slate after I scratched Cle at Phi and Det at Bal for the rain. It is an absolute goat rodeo today with that weather. It’s just 80% to 90% chances of rain in both stadiums and I don’t want to risk starting, stopping, not getting them in, so I’m eliminating them. The two highest implied totals on the sheet are Atlanta at 5.40 and Seattle at 4.80. Boston is third at 4.50 and San Francisco is fourth at 4.60. The runs are concentrated in three offenses, but ownership won’t be. The field always overweight’s the top game total on a small slate because there’s nowhere else to go, which means the leverage is on the two run environments under Atlanta that are also legitimate stacking spots.

If I knew for sure Detroit and Baltimore were gonna go, Framber would be my number one pitcher but I’m just too worried about that weather that I’m gonna build all those lineups. He’s gonna get locked in and then we’re gonna get a cancel because of the weather, looking at it below.

Tonight’s Lesson

The Daily Slip 5-22

Trevor — Fri, 22 May 2026 20:33:34 GMT

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

First things first there are a ton of weather problems today. The Cincy game already got canceled. Weather does not look good in Baltimore and in Atlanta and we got the wind blowing in a lot of places today. This isn’t going to be a heavy card by any means.

Today we’re going to have some education on why finding good lines matter and what it can tell you. So we get Jacob deGrom pitching against the Angels with the highest K rate in the league tonight. So his current line is set at 7.5 and it is +105 at no vig, who is legal in 42 states, by the way. When you get to the “big books” quote, you start seeing -120 to -125. We have him projected for 9.34ks today and the fact you can get +105 at no vig allows you to take advantage of this situation and not pay that extra juice. Now if you wanted to lock in guaranteed profit, you can go to Ceasers and bet his under at -111. Then you can go over to Novig and bet it at +102 and you can lock in guaranteed money.

However for me deGrom, who currently has a 33% whiff rate, a 28.4% K-rate, a 23.9% put-away rate, and a 16.1% swinging strike rate, I’m not giving up that and we’re going to ladder him because I want to attack the number one K team in the league versus right-handed pitching.

This cheat sheet is one of my favorite tools we have as it shows everything from pitch count to K% and ball% and swing and strike rate and a bunch of other fun tools and then I can dig into the data from there. You get access to all of this with the paid version and it’s so inexpensive. Take advantage!

Jacob deGrom TEX O 7.5k +102 1u NoVig and O 8.5k +173 1u and O 9.5k +313 .5u

Today’s Top Bets

MLB DW Slate Preview - May 22

Jon A — Fri, 22 May 2026 17:37:05 GMT

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Weather

It looks like the Cardinals and Reds will get PPD’d. We’re also in some trouble with the Nationals/Braves game.

Check out Roth’s report here.

There’s a 2:20 Wrigley game. You’ve got Spencer Arrighetti going up against Jameson Taillon. And you immediately should notice an over/under of seven.

That’s crazy low for an Arrighetti/Taillon game. But you know what it means! Everybody is terrified of the WINDS.

It just can’t really work like this, right? You’d think that Wrigley Field was like up among the planes or something with what’s going on this year. It’s either a 6.5 total or a 12.5 total with everybody betting and going nuts all about the winds. There’s something real there, obviously, and Roth says it’s a horrible home run hitting environment. It just seems so, so overstated to me. But we’ll see, I guess.

My model does adjust for the wind. But it’s missing whatever complexities kick in with Wrigley specifically. I have the game way over. But the model is losing when making picks in Wrigley (6-12).

Please keep that in mind. To play it safe, I just wouldn’t take those @CHC games in the O/U model.

But Arrighetti and Taillon are both very bad. And a game can score eight runs without a homer. The Wrigley wind stuff makes me very mad.

The turbo games are the Guardians at the Phillies and the Cardinals at the Reds rainout. So we have a massive main slate to get into.

BOOM HITTERS

Massive list today.

Home Run Model

DFS Preview - Main Slate

Implied Totals

BRAVES VS. MIKOLAS

DIAMONDBACKS VS. SUGANO

BLUE JAYS VS. CHANDLER

ORIOLES VS. FLAHERTY

YANKEES VS. NICK MARTINEZ

PADRES VS. SPRINGS

LOW OWNED STACKS

Dodgers vs. Logan Henderson
Yankees vs. Martinez
Nationals vs. Elder

Here’s the full team data:

Big value as per usual with the Giants.

They’re up against Davis Martin. And I suppose my arm has been twisted to like that guy. The under-the-hood stuff now looks very good. And this game is in San Fran. But are we to be surprised when and if Martin blows up? And do we know that the big three Giants have .900+ OPS in the last two weeks?

Now we know that! The Giants are heating up, and Martin was formerly a very bad pitcher. That sounds like a leverage stack I want.

The poop stacks:

Twins vs. Tolle
Angels vs. deGrom
Red Sox vs. Prielipp
Marlins vs. Tobias Myers

Marlins vs. Myers not projecting well! It will be a lot of the Mets bullpen, so that factors in. We’ve got Myers for about just 60 pitches. And he’s been decently effective in his long relief role (16% K-BB%, .278 xwOBA).

PITCHERS

Here’s everybody over 15 points:

JACOB DEGROM ($9,500) vs. LAA (38% ownership)

Finally, deGrom gets a good matchup. He’s faced the Yankees, Yankees, Cubs, and Astros in the last four starts. He’s also had to ace the Mariners twice and the Dodgers once. So it’s been a tough schedule. But it all gets right tonight. Possibly a lock-button spot for me on deGrom with his 27% K-BB%!

KEVIN GAUSMAN ($8,300) vs. PIT (19% ownership)

The Pirates lineup took a hit with O’Hearn hitting the IL, and they’ll end up in Toronto tonight against Gausman. Gausdaddy has a 23% K% and a .292 xwOBA this year with his usual elite walk rate.

He’s not a stone cold stud daddy anymore, but he’s a good pitcher and I can believe that he’ll have a nice start tonight at home. The Pirates have some definite losers at the bottom of the lineup, and potentially a new loser being added to it with Esmerlyn Valdez making his debut. I’m not saying Valdez is definitely a loser, but Gausman would have to be the best pitcher he’s ever faced, right?

MICHAEL SOROKA ($8,000) vs. ROAD ROCKIES (22% ownership)

The Rockies on the road this year: .234/.300/.364 with a .298 xwOBA. They’re very beatable, and Soroka has strutted some upside this year.

He has 55 strikeouts in 49 innings for a 26% K% and a nice 6.7% BB%. He’s capable of dominating in this spot.

The matchups model doesn’t hate the Rockies against Soroka, though. This doesn’t really consider the park stuff. It does a little bit, but it will give it 50/50 road/home and this game is 100/0 road/home. You see what I’m saying.

A little bit of Soroka for me, but I’d probably rather be on the fade side at 22% ownership.

PAYTON TOLLE ($8,900) vs. MIN (17% ownership)

The Tollemeister! His three strikeout performance last time out droppe the K% down to 28%. But it was eight innings of four-hit, two-run ball.

His fastball is awesome (15.3% SwStr%, .139 xwOBA). His sinker is not. But he has a cutter and curve going for around 30% usage, so he has a lot going for him. Love him in this spot against the Twins.

BUT the matchups model does not agree. The Twins ranked 12th on the board tonight.

These are small samples, though. There aren’t many pitches clustering with Tolle’s. I’m in on Tolle.

GERRIT COLE ($8,500) vs. TB (7% ownership)

Count me out, even at 7% ownership. It will be awesome to see him back on the hill. But it rarely seems to go well in the first starts back from Tommy John.

Cole threw 84 pitches in his last rehab start six days ago. And his fastball averaged 97mph. So that’s encouraging. The guy is a stud. I guess his Hall of Fame case is marginal since his big league sample size isn’t all that huge at this point. I won’t be surprised if he pitches well, but I think it’s more likely that he disappoints at this $8,500 price tag against a team that makes a ton of contact.

JACK FLAHERTY ($6,300) vs. BAL (7% ownership)

The projections will still be boosted up by his much better performance in 2024-2025. As we already mentioned, he’s been bad this year. But he does have a ten-strikeout game recently (against Boston), and the price tag is buried way down there. I like sprinkling in some Flaherty at this price.

LOGAN GILBERT ($8,700) vs. KC (6% ownership)

This might be the lowest projection we’ve seen on Gilbert. This poor 2026 season is weighing in. The Royals rank 11th in the matchups model, so they hit these kinds of righties decently well.

Gilbert has loads of upside, and the Royals haven’t hit well. But this is a road game, which is never good for the Mariners arms. And this price really doesn’t reflect the fact that he’s gone for 15+ points in just one of his last six starts. That’s wild stuff.

If he were brand new to the league, we’d think he pretty much sucks.

But his ownership… 6%. That makes me want to pounce.

EURY PEREZ ($7,300) vs. NYM

Perez hasn’t been friendly to the Stuff+ bros. A big 107 Stuff+, but poor performance everywhere else. A .352 xwOBA, a 37% Ball% and a 13% K-BB%. He’s struggling, and I’m losing confidence.

The Mets also aren’t a lineup I’d like to pick on. They’re getting a lot better as time rolls on.

That only matters to me because the .330 mark or so is what we thought they’d be before the season began. So they’re playing to their expectations now after being very poor to begin the year. So I think they’re kinda good. I like Eury for upside tourney bets, but not much else.

CONNOR PRIELIPP ($7,000) vs. BOS (10% ownership)

He gets better every time out. He has a 14:4 K:BB with 40 fantasy points in his last two, and this is a nice matchup for him against the Red Sox.

Boston ranks 23rd in the matchups model offensively, so we like Prielipp here, especially for the pretty cheap tag.

CHRIS BASSITT ($5,500) vs. DET (10% ownership)

He’s been bad with a 5.4% K-BB%. A .290 xBA, a .349 xwOBA…

But lately? Much better. A 15% K-BB% with a. 308 xwOBA in May. And the Tigers aren’t great. The sticking point is the price. Sometimes, you just need that $5,500 pitcher to make your stack work. Tourneys are often won by getting 13 points from a punt SP play.

GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ ($6,900) vs. TEX (4% ownership)

Do you have the guts? It’s his second start. His first one was terrible, but it was against the Dodgers.

This matchup is on the other end of the spectrum. The price is fair. I don’t have much good to say about him. The Stuff+ marks were bad in the first start, so he’s probably just not a high-upside arm like some are inclined to believe given his former top prospect status. That was a long, long time ago, we should forget about it.

I’ll be off Grayson, but I wouldn’t like make fun of you and give you a swirlie for playing him above a 4% share of your lineups.

LOGAN HENDERSON ($9,200) vs. LAD (3% ownership)

Nobody is going to use him tonight. The price is out of control for this matchup. That might be reason enough to play him? He is pretty good…

The fact that we have a ton of options probably means you don’t have to get too into it. If he pops for 25 points at 3% ownership, you’re not cooked because… well nobody really took those points and some of these other guys are going to do just as well.

It will be very interesting to see how he handles this test. The numbers are elite in four starts:

KC, WSH, NYY, and MIN were those matchups. And the Yankees hit him hard, so he kinda failed the only tough matchup he had (14 DK points in that one).

If we’re going small field stuff, leave him alone. But the 150-max, I’ll have some shars.

The values:

I covered everybody there besides Chandler. I guess it’s possible that Chandler suddenly rediscovers his command and has a good outing. The Blue Jays don’t hit many homers. He has more upside than Bassitt, certainly, but Chandler has given us zero reason to believe in him this year.

CASH PLAYS

deGrom
Bassitt
Soroka

GPP PLAYS

deGrom
Bassitt
Soroka
Flaherty
Gilbert
Eury
Tolle
Henderson

BEST OVERALL STACKS

ownership not considered

Braves
Diamondbacks
Yankees
Dodgers

BEST TOURNEY STACKS

Upside with low ownership

Dodgers vs. Henderson (low-owned LA)
Yankees vs. Martinez
Nationals vs. Elder
Giants vs. Martinez
Pirates vs. Gausman
Brewers vs. Wrobleski

Maybe, just maybe, it all blows up for Wrobleski. e has a .299 xwOBA allowed at home and .327 on the road. This game’s in Milwaukee. Sneaky spot for the Brew Crew.

Hitters - by Position

CATCHERS

Gabriel Moreno $3,300
William Contreras $4,200
Salvador Perez $3,200
Hunter Goodman $4,900

I’ll leave Langeliers alone at $5,600. It’s too much for a game in San Diego. I like Goodman’s power potential against Soroka, although it would be a lot better if he were left-handed. But the guy hits more homers on the road than at home, and you’ll get low ownership on all road rockies.

The most popular play is projected to be Moreno. I don’t think he has the upside to justify him as chalk.

Maybe William Contreras is my favorite play. Maybe. I want to be on the fade side of Wrobleski, and this is one way to do it.

The punts:

Freddy Fermin $2,100 vs. Springs
Drew Millas $2,400 vs. Elder

FIRST BASE

Shohei Ohtani $6,400
Rafael Devers $4,400
Nick Kurtz $5,500
Vlad Guerrero Jr. $4,800

It’s not a night to play Dodgers at high prices in cash. Logan Henderson is good. But it’s tough to make a case for any of these guys.

I guess I like Guerrero the best against Chandler. There’s plenty of free points handed out through Chandler walks, so there’s likely to be a walk or two for Vlad, and possibly a bunch of guys on base for him to drive in with one of those hard struck Vlad doubles.

Punts:

Bryce Eldridge $2,200
Luis Garcia Jr. $3,400
Spencer Torkelson $2,900

SECOND BASE

Fernando Tatis Jr. $4,200
Ketel Marte $5,300
Jazz Chisholm $4,600

Tatis’s price! The lack of homers has kept him down, obviously, but he’s still hitting the ball hard and can score points with steals. Is he going to go deep for the first time here against Springs? Probably not, but it’s a good spot for Tatis and I’m very drawn to his price.

Ketel Marte is smashing the ball again, and the Diamondbacks are one of the top offenses on the board tonight. He will be on the left side tonight, but his xwOBA of .375 is better from that side this year than as a right-handed hitter (.346).

Tatis and/or Marte for me tonight.

Punts:

Richie Palacios $3,100
Marcus Semien $2,900

THIRD BASE

Manny Machado $4,100
Junior Caminero $5,000
Nolan Arenado $3,500
Austin Riley $4,300
Kazuma Okamoto $3,500

Lots to like here. Arenado has been very good, and he’s in that sweet D’Backs spot.

Caminero could welcome Cole back quite rudely in Yankees Stadium.

Machado joins Tatis with a very low price tag (although yeah, he has also sucked).

Riley against Mikolas, Okamoto vs. Chandler!

I don’t think we want to punt the position today because it’s so loaded. But here are your options:

Patrick Wisdom $2,100
Ryan McMahon $2,400

SHORTSTOP

Gunnar Henderson $5,200
Willy Adames $3,400
Bobby Witt $5,600
Geraldo Perdomo $4,500

Adames is at home, which hurts the power, and up against Martin, who has been awesome. But he’s still too cheap, as the projections are quick to point out.

Punts:

Luisangel Acuna $2,300
Andruw Monasterio $2,400

I think I just like Adames the most… what a world.

OUTFIELD

Shohei Ohtani $6,400
Corbin Carroll $5,800
Aaron Judge $6,500
Fernando Tatis $4,200
Ronald Acuna $5,700
Juan Soto $6,200
Jackson Chourio $4,900
Michael Harris $3,800

When is the price going to come up on Harris? He’s got 11 homers and the best numbers of his career, he’s been great.

Carroll is the top play against Sugano. Smash spot for him, but super high ownership no doubt about it.

Values:

Luisangel Acuna $2,300
Esmerlyn Valdez $2,000
Rob Refsnyder $2,200 (lefty starting for KC)
Lourdes Gurriel $3,200

OPTIMAL LINEUP

SP deGrom
SP Flaherty
C Moreno
1B Eldridge
2B Marte
3B Arenado
SS Adames
OF Carroll
OF Tatis
OF Ohtani

That’s a pretty nice looking lineup. It’s heavy on the Diamondbacks, which won’t give you much ownership leverage. But it’s a viable cash lineup. Ig uess maybe you’d rather exclude Flaherty.

I’m going to publish this bad boy so we can get it out before the Cubs game.

MLB DW Slate Breakdown - May 21

Jon A — Thu, 21 May 2026 16:00:34 GMT

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Not a good day for DFS. A two-game early slate and then a four-gamer for the night slate. On days like these, I prefer to just forget about baseball for the night and give my brain a day off. Grab a book or something.

But let’s go through some of these games to talk about some ball and hand out some ideas. I’ll make it quick so we can get this through in time for the start of the action.

BOOM Hitters

In some ways, Dustin May pitches right into the Pirates strength. They have one of the league’s highest GB%, but it’s worked pretty well for them so far this year. And that’s what May does. He gives up a bunch of pretty hard hit ground ball and line drives. So the Pirates should do pretty well here, and if they get a decent outing from Braxton Ashcraft, they should win this game. I guess you could say that for any team ever. If they get a good start from their pitcher, they should win the game! But I like the matchups model data on the Pirates side.

Ben Rice, Spencer Torkelson, Mike Trout, and Corbin Carroll are your BOOM home run bets.

Model Recommended HR Bets

Jo Adell +520 on FanDuel
Wencell Perez +1080 on DraftKings
Hunter Goodman +470 on FanDuel
Mike Yastrzemski +790 on FanDuel

Model Recommended SB Bets

Trevor hit the Antonacci bet again yesterday in addition to hitting two homer picks. Here’s what we have today on the SB recommendation model:

Victor Scott +550 on FanDuel
AJ Ewing +640 on FanDuel
Konnor Griffin +390 on FanDuel
Javier Sanoja 850 on FanDuel

O/U Picks

We have two spots lighting up the board in the O/U model today.

Athletics at Angels Over 8.5
Pirates at Cardinals Over 7

Pitcher Projections

Pretty low projections everywhere. Spencer Strider and Carlos Rodon are the most interesting men today.

Strider has a 31% K% this year, but an ugly 17% BB%. He hasn’t had the touch. He’s throwing 49% four-seamers, 28% sliders, 17% curveballs, and 6.5% changeups. They’ve all been good pitches. He has high whiff rates on all of them with a 17.2% SwStr% overall. Hitters haven’t squared him up yet, either, at a .271 xwOBA and a .313 SLG.

The Marlins against righties:

Not much splits difference going on there. They are a below average, but not terrible offense this year.

Strider will have to face six lefties today. So the curveball is going to have to come into play. Overall, I think I’d be on the unders on Strider. I’m not convinced he’s good, and he’s had home run issues in the past, and the Marlins have a couple of dudes who can hit the long ball.

Carlos Rodon will make his third start. He threw 78 pitches the first time and 88 the last time. So he’s ramepd up. But he has a 10:8 K:BB so far with a 12.7% SwStr%. These game typically take a couple of starts to get the command going.

So maybe we could lean into that. Some sort of Strider and Rodon over 1.5 or over 2.5 walks parlay.

Rodon is up against the Blue Jays, where strikeouts are tough to come by. So I wouldn’t expect a ton. But I would start him in season long leagues.

I’m not giving you much today, I know, we’ll do better tomorrow. But it’s been a rough morning for your boy!

Main DFS Slate Picks

DFS specific pitcher projections:

Hard to find a good cash play on that board. I think you can go to Jose Soriano and then maybe take a shot on the expensive Spencer Strider. He should be getting the command back, at least down to a 10-11% BB% pretty soon, and the whiffs we’ve seen so far have been very encouraging.

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the Road Rockies, and he’s pitched pretty well recently. He’s in play, and maybe even for cash if you don’t want to spend up on Strider.

Luis Severino gets the elite matchup as a righty against the Angels. It didn’t go how we wanted it for Civale last night, but Severino is a better pitcher than Civale, so I think he can find some success here against a whiff-heavy Angels lineup that does most of their damage against lefties.

And maybe Carlos Rodon will find the command and really get it going. His velo has been fine. And the price is very cheap on DFS slates tonight. So I like him for tourneys.

Hitter Projections

Snakes and Yanks for stacking. Angels if you don’t believe in Severino and want some cheaper upside picks. And it’s not crazy to go to the Rockies against E-Rod. I like Hunter Goodman in that spot since he’s not been bothered by the road stuff like most of his teammates in these last two years.

Top Plays

Top Values

That’s all I’ve got! Looking forward to tomorrow night with another full Friday slate.

The Daily Slip 5-20

Trevor — Wed, 20 May 2026 16:50:23 GMT

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

We went up another 3.5 units yesterday on the whole card, to bring us to a total of 35.8 units for the year.

Free play of the day: we’re going to use Mr. Aaron Civale against the Angels today, who this season are number one in the league versus right-handed pitching for strikeouts. They have seven players in their projected lineup today with a K rate above 25%, including Logan and Soler, who both are in the 30%.

Aaron Civale ATH O 4.5k -125 1.5u and O 5.5K +165 1u

Soler and Yesavage have the best bet value today on the Player Prop Comparison Sheet. While Trey is projected for 7.39 Ks and Aaron for 6.03, thus you see our top play of the day as we want to attack the Angels, as the number one K rate team in the league who’ve currently struck out as a team 476 times this season already.

Main Slate 5-20 and Special early 6 game slate

Trevor — Wed, 20 May 2026 15:29:56 GMT

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I had time this morning to write up both 6 game slates today. This wont always happen but here we are.

The Slate Take

Six game main slate. The implied totals don’t separate as much as the field thinks. ATH at LAA is the 9.5 game, LAD at SD comes in at 7.5, and the three middle games (TOR-NYY, BOS-KC, PIT-STL) all sit at 8.0. MIL-CHC is the dead game at 6.5. The runs are spread across more teams than usual, which means the field is going to chase the 9.5 and the ATH-LAA double stack is going to be the most popular construction in the room. That’s where the edge lives. If LAA is heavily owned and ATH is heavily owned in the same game, the leverage is to fade one side of it and use the ownership somewhere else.

Tonight’s Lesson

When the field chalks the highest total game, ownership concentration becomes the entire game. A 4 percent owned pitcher with a 20.23 projection is worth more than a 42 percent owned pitcher with a 17.85 projection, even if the 42 percent guy is slightly better, because the leverage compounds across every contest you enter.

The Daily Slip 5-19

Trevor — Tue, 19 May 2026 20:59:35 GMT

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Wanted to give an update on where we are at for the year. So far we have risked 177 units while profiting 32.3 units for a ROI of 18%.

If you’re not aware, that’s unbelievable. Our goal is to hit 3% to 5% a year and we would be in amazing shape while we’re having fun doing it. Let’s hope we stay this hot and just have the best season ever.

Our play of the day is going to be something that I feel like the sports books are telling us. Griffin Jax K line is 4.5. While he’s getting stretched out now, he hasn’t struck out more than three this season and the books moved it to 4.5 today.

His K projection against Baltimore tonight is 7.17. We’ve continued to see him get stretched out more and more and this is a spot when we have that kind of projection versus that line in the books telling us that we like to bet it. Jax has a combined 31% K rate, 17% swing strike rate so we want to take advantage of him not giving up very much here.

Griffin Jax TB O 4.5k -105 1u and O 5.5k +200 1u MGM

So why are we betting one unit and one unit instead of two units on 4.5 when he hasn’t got close? The books moved his line because I believe they know his pitch count’s going to go deeper today. When you give Baltimore’s K ability against these types of pitchers, I’m going to go ahead and attack that and at +200 we have that. It should only be +140 today.

Today’s BEST BET

MLB DW Slate Breakdown - May 19

Jon A — Tue, 19 May 2026 18:38:48 GMT

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I love a Tuesday MLB slate. Especially after the optimizer and the projections took me to my best DFS night in a couple of years. But I’m going to have to try to hold back from chasing another MME situation, as my son is graduating from preschool tonight and I don’t want to be the dude making late swaps during the ceremony. But some things are out of our control in life, you know? Wish me patience, resolve, and wisdom tonight. And shout out to my boy for doing what 99% of preschoolers do - graduate. But you’ve gotta start somewhere!

Honestly, the kid is a stud. He’s five. And my kids like math. Or at least they like showing off that they know how to do some addition. So last night, my seven year old daughter asks him what six plus six equals. And I kid you not, what he does is he goes and buries his head into his pillow and just sits there for ten seconds or so, and then pops up and goes TWELVE!

Which was amazing to me. I don’t know where the bar is set here, but I feel like most five year olds wouldn’t be able to pull that off. Especially without using something to count with. He just closed his eyes and like visualized the count, or something like that. I was blown away. And then I went and took myself to second place out of thousands of lineups with a Diamondbacks stack. Who has it better??

Weather

It’s alllll green tonight, and it is HOT. Look at some of these temps:

NYM/WSH 92 degrees
CIN/PHI 95 degrees
TOR/NYY 91 degrees
SF/ARI 87 degrees

It’s under 60 degrees only in HOU/MIN and TEX/COL.

Jon & Trevor Live Stream

Me and Trevor talked for 50 minutes about some betting stuff and DFS plays for tonight. View it here:

https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1pKdRbpdwXgJW

Or here if you wanna watch it on YouTube:

We’re going to try to do this at least 1-2 times a week. So your feedback is valuable. Maybe we’ll try to each come up with a handful of bets to go through and then do some more game-by-game stuff for the DFS slates.

But it was a lot of fun, if nothing else. And we aren’t skimping out on the written articles because we did it, either!

And I’ll extend this offer one more time. If anybody wants to give me $250,000 cash today, I will quit my job and do these daily. Just let me know, don’t all come at me at once.

Early Game

The Marlins host the Braves at 4:10pm. It’s two bad lefties going at it (Martin Perez ATL, Braxton Garret MIA). And the Braves just put Drake Baldwin on the IL, but they will return Ronald Acuna Jr. for this one. So a pretty clean swap there. Not a decimated Braves lineup after all, but Acuna hasn’t been great and he’s just getting back into it. And the rest of this lineup isn’t the most frightening one without Baldwin in there, at least against left handed pitching.

But I guess I’d rather just ignore that game. Garrett looked awful in the first outing, and his ceiling has always been extremely capped.

Turbo Slate

I’ll just give you the data here before speeding toward the main slate. Here are your implied totals:

The Nationals have scored and allowed the most runs in baseball this year. The allowed part isn’t surprising, but nobody saw them being +12 on the second place team (ATL) in run scoring this year. There’s a little disparity here because their team OPS ranks fifth. So that’s still very good, but they’ve a bit lucky to have scored as many runs as they have. They have a league-leading 19 homers with men in scoring position. So the hits are timed well, and that’s not something that is “sticky”.

It’s Foster Griffin for the Nats taking on the Mets in that one. Griffin got tanked last time out, but other than that he’s been very good. I’m not a believer in the guy, but he’s much better than Mikolas and Irvin. So I wouldn’t want to go crazy on the Mets stacks and bets.

But it should be a pretty clean win for the Mets behind Nolan McLean. And the Mets are only -143 here. So I like their chances.

In Philly, we have Chase Burns against Jesus Luzardo. I wrote this one for Action Network, and discovered that Burns has been walking lefties at a super high rate this year, and he’s given up all but one of his homers to the southpaw hitter. With Schwarber, Harper, Marsh, and Stott all crushing right now, it could be a trap spot for Burns in that heat.

I’d be on the Phillies, and I’d be on Burns over 1.5 walks and over 1.5 earned runs.

Here are you pitcher projections for the turbo:

Pretty decent pitching slate for a four-gamer. It could also be a trap for Luzardo with his lack of consistency and a decent Reds lineup in the high temps.

So maybe I’d go more for Parker Messick and the red hot Kyle Bradish on this slate. Griffin Jax is also of interest to me. He’s coming off of a bad one with a 1:4 K:BB and a 7.6% SwStr% against the Blue Jays. But this is a good matchup with the Orioles, and he did throw a season-high 66 pitches last time. So he could push for 75 pitches here at a low price, and that’s pretty good to me.

The projections don’t like Nolan McLean after all. I suppose that’s fair with how well the Nats have hit the ball, but I don’t know, at 22% ownership I think I’d go pretty heavy on him. His stuff can dominate anybody.

Here are the team hitting projections:

Projections work both ways, so the Nationals lead the slate in projected fantasy point scoring. That’s pretty shocking, and not something I’m confident in.

There’s no runaway stack to me. I like the Phillies at lower ownership against Burns. Already talked about that above. There’s not a truly bad pitcher on this slate, other than maybe Keider Montero (vs. CLE).

Main Slate

Implied Totals

No huge totals on this one, either. It’s a strong pitching slate overall.

Dodgers vs. Griffin Canning

Why would the Dodgers have this low of a team total against Canning? The books seem to like Canning for some reason. And this is a guy with a 22% K% and an 11% BB% with a .338 xwOBA allowed over the last two years. The game’s in San Diego; a tougher place to hit than Dodger Stadium, but come on now! I like the Dodgers a lot against Canning.

The Daily Slip 5-18

Trevor — Mon, 18 May 2026 22:23:05 GMT

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The O/U Model Is Cooking

The over/under system just crossed 200 games and the receipts are real. 116 wins, 87 losses. A 57.1% win rate on totals plays through May 17.

For anyone who has actually bet baseball totals, you know that number matters. Breakeven sits around 52.4% once you account for the juice. Anything above that is profit. Sitting at 57.1% across more than 200 picks is not a hot streak. It is a track record.

The recent run has been ridiculous

Saturday, May 16. Seven plays, seven wins. Every single one cashed.

Two Padres vs Mariners overs. A Dodgers vs Angels over that landed at 17 runs against a 9 total. The Phillies vs Pirates under. Blue Jays vs Tigers under. And the Diamondbacks vs Rockies double dip in Coors Field that came in under against every gut instinct that tells you to play overs in Denver.

A perfect day in a sport where perfect days are not supposed to happen.

Sunday gave one back to go 1-1. Friday May 15 went 2-1. The only miss on Friday was the Yankees vs Mets under, where the model said under by 4.19 runs and the game still managed to land at 7. Sometimes the projection is right and the result is what it is.

Across the last four days of plays in the log, the system is 13-4. That is a 76% clip on a recent stretch where most public bettors are getting their teeth kicked in by chalk overs and weather games.

What that looks like in real money

Standard -110 juice. Bet to win, meaning you risk $11 to win $10, or $110 to win $100. Flat bet sizing, one play at a time.

$10 to win bettor: Up $203 through 203 games. Every win pockets $10. Every loss costs $11. Multiply that out across the record and you are sitting on a nice dinner.

$25 to win bettor: Up $507. Same math, bigger units. Risk $27.50 to win $25 per play. The middle ground for someone who wants real money on the line without sweating every game.

$100 to win bettor: Up $2,030. Risk $110 to win $100 per play. That is over two grand in profit on a hobby most people are losing money at.

Zoom in on the last four days alone. The 13-4 stretch added about $86 for the $10 bettor, $215 for the $25 bettor, and $860 for the $100 bettor. In less than a week.

The point is not the size of the bet. It is the slope. The line keeps going the right direction.

Why it works

The system runs a projection on total runs, then adjusts it, then compares the adjusted number to the posted total. The bigger the gap, the stronger the play.

Diamondbacks vs Rockies on May 16 is a clean example. Projected 11.49 runs. Adjusted down to 10.17. Posted at 11.5. The model said under by a hair. Final score finished at 6 total runs. Easy.

Washington vs Cincinnati on May 14 was the other direction. Projection nearly four runs over the posted total of 6.5. Game came in at 16. Print.

The takeaway

A 57.1% clip over 203 games is not variance. The sample is big enough that the edge is real, and the recent stretch is just the model catching fire on top of a foundation that has been there all season.

So today’s free play is brought to you by the O/U model. One of the things we love to do is fade the public. 74% of the money is on the over at 10.5 today and Shota has actually been very good this season. The model projects it for 9.17 runs on a 10.5 total so we’re going to put one unit at -105 on the under.

Mil vs CHC U 10.5 -105 1u

Thanks for reading MLB Data Warehouse! This post is public so feel free to share it.

MLB DW Monday Slate Breakdown

Jon A — Mon, 18 May 2026 17:58:22 GMT

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Weather

It’s about to severely storm where I live. Which is usually bad news for baseball, because I live right in the middle of a bunch of big league cities. I’m within an afternoon’s drive to Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Cleveland. So we have some orange on the weather report from Kevin Roth.

→ View Full Weather Report on PropFinde Here

The spots to watch:

Cleveland at Detroit [Orange]
Houston at Minnesota [Orange]
Boston at Kansas City [Orange]
Texas at Colorado [Yellow]

It really does seem like they have some sort of magic weather control in Denver where they get a lot of risk but rarely a PPD.

That makes things a bit tricker on this slate. The good news is that Detroit is on not on the DFS main slate, so we can forget about that one as we go into the DFS preview.

On Mondays, I write a bit of a slate betting preview over at Action Network. I’ll retweet that when it comes out, but you can get more from me through that post.

Main Slate Breakdown

Implied Totals

It’s a nine-game slate. Here’s the top of the board for implied run totals:

Cubs vs. Brandon Sproat

I don’t really agree with this one I won’t lie! The Cubs will face Brandon Sproat, who is getting better every time out it seems. We’ll talk about him below. But his five-game rolling JA ERA plot shows it well:

His K-BB% is 15.4% over the last five and he has a 25% K% with at least a handful of strikeouts in every outing (okay he only struck out four Tigers on 4/23, but that might be a handful if you have small hands). The cutter is really good with a 13.5% SwStr% and .303 xwOBA (no homer) in this sample. And then he mixes in sinkers, four-seamers, curves, sweeper, and changeups. I like the guy a little bit, so I won’t go chasing big ownership on the Chicago side.

Yankees vs. Patrick Corbin

There’s a spot to like. I’m really unsure how the Cubs get a higher implication than the Yanks against the Corbinator. The innings champ lefty has a 19% K% with a 7% BB% in these last two seasons with a big .350 xwOBA allowed, and .352 against righties. Pretty elite spot for Aaron Judge to wake up to on this fine Monday in America.

Rangers vs. Quintana

It’s in Coors, and Q is one of two pitchers with as many or fewer strikeouts than walks this year. Dating back to last year, he has a 15% K% with a 9% BB% and a .354 xwOBA. He’s better against lefties, but still not good (.340 xwOBA, 21% K%).

But who on the Rangers can actually hit?

If you’re stacking Rangers, you’re relying on a lead-off lefty (Nimmo) without the platoon advantage, and then guys like Duran, McCutchen, Jung, and Burger. Not exactly the best Coors spot, especially with forecasted 40-degree temps. Plus the possibility of some rain delays, that feels like a spot to be against. Maybe even an under 9.5 run bet!

Diamondbacks vs. Robbie Ray

Another implication I don’t understand. Robbie Ray has been good this year. He’s a long ways from his former Cy Young self, but since last year he has a 25% K% with a 9.6% BB% and a .313 xwOBA allowed. This game is in Arizona, which is a better spot for hitting than San Fran. Here’s the matchups model results on Arizona:

Ketel Marte went just 4/15 with one extra base hit in Coors over the weekend. But he’s not struggling anywhere nearly as badly as you’d think by his .637 season OPS.

For his career, he’s been one of the best hitters in the league against lefties. So he’s in a good spot against Ray. Corbin Carroll made the most of the Coors series over the weekend, but there’s not much thump in this lineup after that top two. I took the Giants to win game. That doesn’t mean the D’Backs can’t put some runs up on the board, but Ray isn’t an arm I’m looking to stack against

Twins vs. Imai

We might have something here. Imai has been a disaster in his first stint in the bigs. A 24.6% K% (decent), but a 21.5% BB% and a .398 xwOBA. I guess his problem isn’t as much getting tanked with the lumber every time he toes the rubber, it’s just that he can’t throw a strike. The Twins should look to be patient and take some of those free strolls to first, and maybe a big swing or two puts up a big number on the board for the Twinkies.

Athletics vs. Walbert Urena

If you’re stacking A’s, you’re looking for some bombs. And Urena isn’t the type to give up the longball with his 53% GB% on the year. We’ve got some high xwOBAs in the matchups model for them, but not much fly ball hitting, as we’d expect if the model does its job - and the model does indeed do its job.

So I’m only really buying the Yankees stack from these implied totals. At the bottom of the list:

The White Sox face Woo in Seattle, which has been one of the toughest spots for run production in these last few seasons. The Padres face Yamamato, and the Blue Jays take their very poor lineup up against Ryan Weathers, who has pitched very well on balance. If there’s a problem with Weathers, it’s the home run, and the Blue Jays are hitting fewer home runs than pretty much every other team.

Pitcher Breakdowns

Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,700) vs. Padres

Yamamoto has suddenly hit a rough patch. He’s given up 14 earned runs in his last four starts. But I don’t see anything wrong below the surface. Over these last four, he has a 20% K-BB% with a 2.92 SIERA over these four starts. But he’s given up five homers. Two on the splitter, which is pretty uncommon for the guy.

So I wouldn’t take the recent slump to mean anything. The Padres are a good matchup with a team .665 OPS this year. We know about the fact that Tatis has yet to homer, which is crazy. But the Padres are also getting brutal seasons from Jackson Merrill (.593 OPS) and Manny Machado (.611 OPS). Nothing is going right for them this year, and Yamamoto should be considered in all contests tonight. But I won’t blame anybody for balking at the $9,700 price tag for a guy averaging just 18.8 DraftKings points per start.

Bryan Woo ($9,000) vs. White Sox

The White Sox are always a little bit bothersome to start a pitcher against. Their second in the league in homers and are getting huge seasons from Murakami, Montgomery, and Vargas. Plus they have Antonacci now as a low-strikeout guy who can be a bit of a pest.

But I’m backing Woo tonight. He has back-to-back nine strikeout games, and he’s at home for this one. These White Sox hitters haven’t been to Seattle yet this year, so they’re not used to whatever goes there in Seattle that makes it tougher to hit. Woo has a 27% K% at home this year, and that follows his career splits as he’s always been dominant at home and just “pretty good” on the road.

The projection is large on Woo tonight, and he’s probably my favorite play.

MacKenzie Gore ($8,000) vs. Rockies

Gore’s coming off of a good start, albeit one where he didn’t get many strikeouts. Now he has to go into Coors to face the Rockies, taking his 10.8% BB% into the toughest park in the league to pitch in.

The Rockies at home this year: .263/.326/.425, .312 xwOBA, 22% K%

So nothing special in Coors for them, and the weather is in the favor of the pitchers in this one. You’d be full out crazy to start Gore in cash, and you probably don’t want to use him in your season-long fantasy leagues if you have the option tonight.

But for a tourney play, I’m still very interested in the guy, as I have been every other time he’s pitched this year. He has big strikeout upside, and the bad numbers on the season plus the Coors Field thing will keep his ownership low.

Ryan Weathers ($8,600) vs. Blue Jays

He doesn’t ever seem to be able to get into a consistent role. There are injuries and there are home runs in his past. But he’s going pretty good right now with four straight outings of 5+ innings and fewer than three earned runs.

His K% is way up there for the year at 30%, and he’s controlled the walks very well at a 7% BB%. The Blue Jays do not slug well. They’re at a team .371 SLG with just 42 homers all year long. But they do get ball into play with a team 18% K%, which is among the league’s best marks.

Against lefties: .222/.309/.344, 18% K%, 10% BB%, 46 PA/HR

They’re really not putting a hurting on anybody throwing with their left arm. Weathers K projection is down a touch from this, but it’s made up for by the low home run allowed projection and the high chance of beating Corbin for the win bonus. He’s in play.

Shota Imanaga ($9,500) vs. Brewers

The matchups model loves this spot for Imanaga. The Brewers do not hit these sorts of lefties well. That said, it’s a small sample in there, because there aren’t too many lefties that throw the ball like Imanaga does.

Great form for Imanaga: 28% K%, 6% BB%, .273 xwOBA, 5 HR

And the Brewers don’t hit super well: .243/.325/.360, .685 OPS
The Brew Crew against lefties this year: .209/.302/.294, 5 HR

It seems like a smash spot for the Cubs lefty. When he’s gotten himself into trouble, it’s been by giving up multiple homers. If the Brewers hit multiple homers off of him tonight, they’ll have hit almost 30% of their team homers against lefties for the entire year. Imanga is worth every penny tonight.

JT Ginn ($7,500) vs. Angels

The Angels strikeout problem has returned, and by a lot of metrics, they are the best matchup in the league for opposing pitchers.

Ginn isn’t the best guy to take advantage of a whiff-heavy team. His 19% K% this year is well below the league average, and he’s not piling up the called strikes either with a 9% BB% and a 37.3% Ball%.

He has the advantage of being right handed; the Angels really struggle with righties with a team .223/.307/.364 slash line with a 26.5% K%. You can save some money with Ginn. But I’d probably leave it for tourneys since we have several solid cash options.

The Daily Slip 5-17

Trevor — Sun, 17 May 2026 17:23:52 GMT

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We don't normally put content out on Sundays but the home run tracker and projections have been hot and there are some spots we're just going to go after today. I'm not going to have a deep written article about it. Just know I'm taking the projections and pitchers that have given up a ton of hard hit rate and fly ball rate today.

Seiya Suzuki CHC O .5 hr +470 .5u

The Daily Slip 5-16

Trevor — Sat, 16 May 2026 16:59:21 GMT

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Our free card of the day went up 2.8 units yesterday so we will always take profit and that is the goal every day.

Now we’re gonna take advantage of Justin Wrobleski today against the Angels, who strike out at a pretty crazy clip. The projection for Justin tonight is 7.3 K’s and we can get his line at 4.5. We’re going to ladder this up, take advantage of the situation, expose some units against the Angels, whose team strikes out at an incredible rate. They will have multiple guys in their lineup with above a 30% K rate this season.

Justin Wrobleski LAD O 4.5k -152 1u and O 5.5k +145 1u and O 6.5k +276 .5u

Main Slate Breakdown 5-16

Trevor — Sat, 16 May 2026 16:37:44 GMT

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The Slate Take

The Vegas tops are LAA at 8.5, HOU at 8.0, CHC@CWS at 8.5, MIL@MIN at 8.5, and NYM at 8.5, with TEX leading the slate at a 4.80 implied team total against Kai-Wei Teng. Pitcher ownership concentrates on Jacob deGrom at 37 percent and Logan Gilbert at 34 percent and then drops off a cliff. Everything between $6,300 and $8,900 on the mound is below 16 percent ownership. How you take down massive tournaments is by not playing over-owned spots and taking advantage of the lower-owned spots.

Weather

There are no real weather issues today. We’re in a pretty good spot. I think people will push to Yankees and Mets with the wind blowing out. With it being 84 degrees in Sacramento tonight, I think a lot of people flock to the A’s. We’ll talk about why I’m not going to go there. I just think they’re going to end up over-owned today.

The Pitchers I’m Playing

The Daily Slip 5-15

Trevor — Fri, 15 May 2026 19:26:32 GMT

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Happy Free Play Friday! We are going to have the whole card free today and share where we’ve been going. We’ve been incredibly hot and we get to attack one of our favorite pitchers today.

We get to attack Zach Little of the Washington Nationals. This year versus left-handed pitching in 19 innings he’s given up 11 home runs, which is a 5.21 HR/9 He’s given up a 0.422 ISO while giving up a 48.7% hard hit rate, an insane 37% fly ball rate, and a 37.9% home run fly ball rate.

Samuel Bassallo BAL O 1.5 H,R,RBI -110 1.5u and O .5 HR +450 .5u

Bassallo has been very good versus right-handed pitching this season with a.219 ISO. He’s hit four jacks already and he gets a great matchup today versus Littell. Samuel is 11th on the HR projection chart today and here is a sneak peak of the top 11

One day I hope you have someone that loves you as much as Jon’s model loves Taylor Ward home runs. That being said I’m not a massive BVP guy; however Ward has kind of smacked Zach around in a few at bats so we’re going to go after this today.

Taylor Ward BAL O .5 HR +561 .5u

The over under tracker is 106-85 this season and we have two spots we really like today and we’re going to take advantage of them.

NYY vs NYM O 6.5 -123 at Novig 1u

This is a massive savings because, to give you an idea, this is -144 at DraftKings and -145 at BetMGM. The JA tools have this projected at 9.24. It’s almost a three-run difference. That kind of EV is something we want to take advantage of.

Now there are two reasons I like this game tonight to finish out this slate:

At 7.5 total and this projected at 8.97, I like the spot we can get it at because we can get it for plus money.
63% of the money today is on the under.

I am always a fan of fading the public.

SD vs SEA O 7.5 +119 Novig .5u

And for our last matchup today we are going to go and bet on Mr. Trey Yesavage. He has a 7.69 K Prop projection and his book line is 5.5k. And his couple starts back so far. He’s averaged a 26.3% K percentage, a 28% whiff percentage, and a 14.4 SWSTR%. His splitter has been absolutely filthy and, add in his four-seamers, so far he’s only given up a 0.77 ISO to it.

Trey Yesavage TOR O 5.5k -102 2u Fanduel

Since it’s Free Play Friday and all you degenerates love parlays so much, we’re going to work a couple parlays in here for you. These are sprinkles, just like a lotto Ticket. They’re there to have fun.

Mickey Moniak COL/Shea Langaliers ATH/Sameul Basallo BAL HR +7217 .1u DK

Trey Yesavage TOR 8+/Jack Leiter TEX 8+/Conelly Early BOS +7 Ks +8073 .1u FD

MLB DW Friday Slate Breakdown

Jon A — Fri, 15 May 2026 16:24:17 GMT

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Welcome to FREE CONTENT FRIDAY! Take this opportunity to peruse the tools and take advantage of the free looks. There are all kinds of things available to you on the app, let me know if you need clarification on anything.

JOIN OUR DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE HERE. $5 CONTESTS SEVERAL DAYS A WEEK! NO STRINGS ATTACHED, TOTALLY OPTIONAL TO PLAY DAILY.

Weather

We’re all green today! No rain anywhere except where we have some domes.

We have a few hot spots:

MIL at MIN
ARI at COL
KC at STL
SF at ATH

All 80+ degrees and some favorable winds.

We have a 12-game main slate with a three-game turbo slate. So we can write off the turbo slate there and fix our attention on the main. There’s a ton to dig into.

Game Data

Top Implied Totals

Diamondbacks (6.42) vs. Kyle Freeland in Coors
Dodgers (6.29) vs. Jack Kochanowicz in Anaheim
Athletics (5.76) vs. Tyler Mahle in Sacramento
Rockies (5.64) vs. Merrill Kelly in Coors
Orioles (5.58) vs. Zack Littell in DC [TURBO SLATE]

Those are your five totals above 5.5. Nobody else is above 5.1 as things stand right now.

The Snakes, Athletics, and Orioles are of most interest to me as offenses who are boosted way up from their usual production.

Lowest Implied Totals

Mets (3.05) vs. Cam Schlittler in Queens
Angels (3.12) vs. Snell in Anaheim
Padres (3.28) vs. Hncock in Seattle
Red Sox (3.50) vs. Strider in Atlanta

Biggest Pitcher Favorites

Blake Snell (-232) vs. Angels [Jack Koch]
Cam Schlittler (-157) vs. Mets [Clay Holmes]
Spencer Strider (-156) vs. Red Sox [Connelly Early]
Edward Cabrera (-149) vs. White Sox [Sean Burke]

Pitchers

There are not a ton of studs on the board for this one. So the ownerhsip shuld be spread out and we’ll want to really dive in on the available options to zoom in on the top handful of options.

Blake Snell ($8,700) at Angels

He is the top projected arm in my model and on The Bat X. But it’s only his second start of the year, and we know about Snell’s ability to struggle for stretches, especially at the beginning of his season.

In his first start, he threw 77 pitches with a 20.8% SwStr%. That was double good news since he’s already built up to 80+ and he was getting whiffs on the curveball and slider and changeup like normal.

The ceiling is sky high for Snell, especially as such a huge favorite against a bad team. But Snell in cash after making just one start?? That’s a tough sell.

Tanner Bibee ($7,400) vs. Reds

The Reds are on the road here after scoring 15 runs at home yesterday. I suppose it’s a pretty short flight from Cincy to Cleveland, so we don’t have to worry much about that. I assume they flew… do any teams take the bus? Certainly, you wouldn’t fly from Pittsburgh to Cleveland or Philly to Boston? Or would you? I don’t know.

But we shouldn’t change our expectations even an inch just because they scored a bunch of runs yesterday. That’s not how baseball works.

The Reds are slashing .221/.286/.364 on the raod this year with a 24.3% K% and a .316 xwOBA. It’s a good matchup for Bibee, who generated 20 whiffs last time out. But again, we shouldn’t change anything because of the last game. Bibee has a 23.2% K% this year, which is fine, and a 9.3% BB%, which is about par for the course this year. He’s given up a non-awful 7.7% Brl% and a high 23 HR/FB.

For $7,400, I think he’s in cash consideration. It’s a low price.

Spencer Strider ($9,200) vs. BOS

Strider and Snell may be the keys to this slate. Strider has piled up 29 whiffs in two outings and his fastball increased in velo from his first start (94.6) to his second (96.4). The heater, though, has a Stuff+ of 88.6, and the slider is at 94.9. That’s a little bit concerning since we don’t have much data to work with on Strider this year. Even if you ignore the Coors start, it was a 95.7 on the fastball and 92.3 on the slider against the Dodgers.

Maybe the edge on this slate will be the fade of Snell and Strider. Neither guy is at all safe. Snell is projected for slate-leading ownership (30%), and Strider is 4th (18%).

As always, if you fade a guy with this kind of upside and they crush, you’re not winning anything. But if these ownerships are right, I’d definitely like to be off of those two in tourneys, no doubt about that at all.

Cam Schlittler ($10,500) vs. NYM

The price is through the roof now. I have him as the #4 projected SP, and The Bat is only at 3rd (behind Snell and Bibee, which is wild).

Schlittler has passed every test with flying colors this year, and this Mets lineup has been really bad this year. But they do have Soto healthy, Semien warming up, Bichette with a lot of bad luck on his card this year, and some young hitters looking pretty nice in Ewing and Benge.

But maybe that’s doing too much. Schlittler has a 25% K-BB% with a .253 xwOBA allowed. He handles righties and lefties with no problem. There’s nothing you can really critique on the guy besides the price being at a career high.

And maybe we get lower ownership as people flock to Snell/Strider. I feel a lot better about Schlittler. I think he’s a cash play, and definitely someone to use in tourneys.

Jack Leiter ($7,100) at HOU

This is my favorite tourney option of the night. Leiter has a 14.2% SwStr%, a 26.2% K%, and an improved 9.6% BB%. He has gone for 8+ strikeouts three times this year, but some bad luck (.315 BABIP, 17% HR/FB) has harmed him. The Astros are definitely beatable, and if Leiter has his command, he’s electric. The fastball (13.5% SwStr%), changeup (17.2% SwStr%), and slider (17.9% SwStr%) are all whiff pitches. There’s the downside that he’s given up an 11.9% Brl% with three different starts with 3+ walks. It can go very poorly, but I love the ceiling for this price.

The matchup is probably a good one all things considered. The Astros have a .331 xwOBA with a .743 OPS this year, and so much of that damage comes from one bat - Yordan Alvarez. Here’s their team xwOBA rolling chart:

So they’ve been below average for much of the year. I like Leiter a lot. Probably still not for cash, but he’ll be my most-rostered guys in tourneys.

Joe Ryan ($8,600) vs. MIL

Ryan’s problem has long been the long ball, and the Brewers haven’t done much long ball hitting this year with just 27 homers on a team .359 SLG. This game being in Minnesota is good for Ryan, but we did mention the hot temperatures there. The Brewers have Chourio, Yelich, and Vaughn all back in play, but they’ve all kinda struggled.

The problem the Brewers present is plate discipline. They have a 20.8% K% with a 10.9% BB% this year, so the K ceiling might be capped for Ryan. The price is also about right… so I’m not convicted in either direction on Ryan.

Edward Cabrera ($7,900) at CWS

The guy is never consistent, but he’s been throwing a lot more strikes in his last three starts with a 22:4 K:BB in those three. The problem is that he’s suddenly started giving up homers (seven allowed in his last four starts). I don’t think that will keep up since it’s never been a big issue for him in the past.

The White Sox strike out a ton, so it’s a good spot to use E-Cab in tourneys.

Connelly Early ($7,500) at ATL

This guy might be pitching to stay in the Majors tonight. The Red Sox are going to have to take somebody out of this rotation with Gray back and Crochet returning soon.

Early has given them good results in the box score with a 3.16 ERA. But his K-BB% is 12% and he’s only completed six innings twice.

For tonight, I think I’m pretty anti-Early. The Braves are tough, and Early’s lack of whiffs makes me pretty nervous about him. He’s thrown 90+ pitches just four times, so they’re usually trying to end his outing around 85-90, it seems. I think we’ll be fine with a Connelly fade tonight.

Logan Henderson ($8,500) vs. MIN

The Bat X really hates Henderson here, giving him just an eight point projection. He’s thrown just 76 and 74 pitches in his two starts back, so that’s the main reason. I think that’s enough for a fade at $8,500. He’s good, but probably doesn’t have enough ceiling to play on this slate.

Spencer Arrighetti ($8,200) vs. TEX

Good matchup against the Rangers. But I don’t think Arrighetti is good. He has a 46% Strike% (below league average) and a 39% Ball% (three points above league average which is very bad). His fastball has been crushed and he has a 9:8 K:BB in the last two. The price is wrong on Arrighetti, so he’s out.

Emerson Hancock ($8,400) vs. SD

After a 14:0 K:BB start on May 2nd, he went for a 4:3 K:BB against the White Sox last time out. He has a beautiful 22% K-BB% this year and his fastball has been one of the best in the league.

The Padres have seen him once this year already and only managed four hits and two runs in six innings.

But Hancock relies heavily on the unique release point, so it can’t be good when a team has already seen him pretty recently. I’m off Hancock tonight.

Dustin May ($6,200) vs. KC

Here’s the PUNT play of the night. The price for $6,200 against a below-average Royals offense is too low. He’s given up no more than three runs in each of his last six outings and has 19+ fantasy points in five of his last seven.

The downside is always single-digit points. He’s gone for negatives twice (his first starts of the year) and has been under ten points in two of his last three.

But he’s a six-inning machine and has a max of two walks this year. The batted balls have to go at guys, because he gets very few outs with the K (18% this year). But he’s in the player pool for sure as a salary saver with 15+ point ability.

Andrew Abbott ($6,600) vs. CLE

Abbott has 19, 16, and 25 points in his last three starts. But even during that spell, it’s a 14:7 K:BB. His season K% is 16%. So the upside doesn’t seem to be there. But we should say that he’s very capable of having good starts, we’ve seen a ton of them from him in his career, and it’s possible he’s fixed whatever was going wrong early on in the year.

It’s a plus that the game isn’t in Cincy, and the Guardians offense is far from impressive.

I think that’s pretty much everybody who needs talked about.

CASH POOL: Schlittler, Snell, Bibee, Ryan

GPP POOL: All the above + Strider, Leiter, Cabrera, Abbott, May

Team Offense

Let’s look at the top projections for the 1-6 hitters, since most of our DFS plays are from the top two-thirds of the lineup.

Highest projection:

Highest value:

We haven’t mentioned the Giants yet. They’re a bad offense which hasn’t scored many runs this year, so their implication is always pretty low.

But it’s a great spot for them in Sacramento against Aaron Civale. Possibly the best spot of the year for the Giants offense, and the prices are lowww.

PRIMARY STACKS

D’Backs vs. Freeland
- Ketel Marte $5,700
- Corbin Carroll $6,200
- Geraldo Perdomo $4,900
- Nolan Arenado $4,000
Athletics vs. Mahle
- Nick Kurtz $5,700
- Shea Langeliers $5,900
- Tyler Soderstrom $4,400
- Brent Rooker $4,900
- Carlos Cortes $4,200
- Henry Bolte $2,700
- Zack Gelof $3,600
Dodgers vs. Kochanowicz
- Shohei Ohtani $6,400
  - pretty good to get Ohtani back in the lineup here!
- Mookie Betts $4,400
- Freddie Freeman $4,800
- Kyle Tucker $5,400
- Will Smith $3,900
- Max Muncy $4,600
- Andy Pages $5,200
Rockies vs. Kelly
- Edouard Julien $4,700
- Mickey Moniak $5,500
- Hunter Goodman $4,900
- TJ Rumfield $3,800

SECONDARY STACKS

Giants vs. Civale
- Heliot Ramos $3,500
- Rafael Devers $4,200
- Bryce Eldridge $2,500
- Willy Adames $3,200
Padres vs. Hancock
- Jackson Merrill $4,300
- Fernando Tatis Jr. $4,600
- Manny Machado $4,100
Royals vs. May
- Maikel Garcia $4,400
- Bobby Witt Jr. $5,900
- Vinnie Pasquantino $4,000
- Sal Perez $2,900

Hitters by Position

I’ll give you at least two expensive plays and at least two value plays at each position that the projections plus my own takes like the most.

Catcher

Langeliers $5,900 vs. Mahle
Goodman $4,900 vs. Kelly
Mack $2,200 vs. Scholtens
Perez $2,900 vs. May

First Base

Ohtani $6,400 vs. Kochanowicz
Kurtz $5,700 vs. Mahle
Devers $4,200 vs. Civale
Vaughn $2,800 vs. Ryan
Norby $2,700 vs. Scholtens

Second Base

Ketel Marte $5,700 vs. Freeland [lock play in Coors vs. LHP]
Tyler Freeman $3,700 vs. Kelly
Richie Palacios $3,100 vs. Junk
Edouard Julien $4,700 vs. Kelly

Third Base

Caminero $5,000 vs. Junk
Arenado $4,000 vs. Freeland
Norby $2,700 vs. Scholtens
Gelof $3,600 vs. Mahle

Shortstop

Witt Jr. $5,900 vs. May
Betts $4,400 vs. Kochanowicz
Adames $3,200 vs. Civale
Perdomo $4,900 vs. Freeland
Ha-Seong Kim $3,000 vs. Early

Outfield

Ohtani $6,400 vs. Kochanowicz
Carroll $6,200 vs. Freeland
Rooker $4,900 vs. Mahle
Moniak $5,500 vs. Kelly
Alvarez $6,300 vs. Leiter
Soderstrom $4,400 vs. Mahle
Bolte $2,700 vs. Mahle
Zach Cole $2,700 vs. Leiter
Sheets $2,800 vs. Hancock
Collins $2,800 vs. May
Benson $2,400 vs. Bibee
Osuna $2,400 vs. Arrighetti

That’s it for the DFS slate. I might be back with some prop betting stuff, and Trevor certainly will be. But I wanted to start getting the DFS stuff out earlier when possible.