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Well, yesterday was a wild day. Cal big dumper broke out of his slump, hit three jacks after a bunch of people finally dropped him, deservedly so. Robbie missed. Nobody went yard for us. It was just a weird baseball day all around, so we’re gonna go back out today.

Happy Gavin Williams Day to everybody that’s going to celebrate. Gavin has just been incredible. The second half of the season here. He is currently on the season with a 31% lift rate, 32% K rate, 24% put away rate, and a 15.6% swing straight rate. Now listen to this. In his last five games:

• a 38% whiff rate

• a 39.8% K rate

• a 27% putaway rate

• a 19% swinging strike rate

It’s frankly unbelievable. Today he gets to go face the Angels, the number two K-rate team in the league, and we’re getting him over 8.5 for plus money when we project him at 10.

Gavin Williams CLE O 8.5K +116 2u FD and O 11.5 +847 .25u FD and O 13.5K +3500 .1u FD

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Are we learning that we cannot trust the studs in late August? Chase Burns and Zack Wheeler both sucked last night as the highest priced pitchers, and Parker Messick did not exactly smash in his elite matchup.

I don’t believe in macro narratives like this. Everybody is different. You haven’t seen Jacob Misiorowsk or Cam Schlittler struggling lately, but it does speak to how important it is to pay for stud pitchers that are actually going to pitch like studs.

So that’s your DFS lesson of the day - make sure you don’t pay big money for pitchers who don’t do well!

Weather

No issues again. It’s a week of west coast games, which is annoying when you live in east coast time and want to actually watch some of your DFS players play. But it’s good for not having to worry about rain.

Game Info

It’s a 12-game slate. There is one time implied near/above six runs (depending on where you look):

Twins vs. Gage Jump

Implied: 5.97 runs, +1.47 above average

Jump is better than Springs. He is a tougher pitcher to hit out of the park. He’s given up just nine homers in 16 starts. That’s good. The rest of it isn’t so good. 4.94 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 24.4% K%, 11.1% BB%. His GB% is just 41%, so pitching at home is very risky, and it’s another lefty the Twins will throw 7+ righties at.

It’s a good spot for the Twins, but not as good as last night in my opinion.

A couple teams near five runs:

Dodgers vs. Bryce Elder

5.07 implied runs, +0.21 over average

The projections don’t love the Dodgers tonight against Elder, but they’re #2 in implied runs. Elder is a soft tossing righty, so Ohtani + Freeman + Muncy have loads of upside in this spot. But Elder has been mostly fine this year. He’s had a nice season and has good enough command to more than survive in these spots.

Yankees vs. Ethan Pecko

4.96 implied runs, +0.60 above average

He made a start for the Astros last week, throwing 3.2 innings against the Angels and scoring 8.7 fantasy points on four strikeouts and three walks. In the minors, he posted a 4.57 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP on a 24.6% K% and 8% BB%.

More from the minors:

• 24% sinker usage (93.6mph)

• 24% 4-seam usage (94.5mph)

• 12.5% SwStr%

• 3.31 JA SIERA

• 16.6% K-BB%

• 44% GB%

• 7 HR in 82.2 IP (0.76 HR/9)

Looks like a guy who won’t do well in the Majors.

The Yankees have just been terrible. A .660 team OPS since July 1st, .669 in August. But there are plays you can make here against Pecko and the Astros bullpen.

One more spot to cover:

Blue Jays vs. Seth Lugo

4.71 implied runs, +0.76 above average

It’s over for Lugo. He has a 4.71 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP on a 10.5% K-BB% this year for the Royals. He’s given up 5, 3, 5, and 5 runs in his last four outings, and that’s while giving up only one homer.

Lugo can still do that - limit homers. 0.99 HR/9 this year; that’s not bad at all. But he’s very easy to make contact against, and the Blue Jays are one of the best lineups in the league at making contact. So the floor is pretty good for the Blue Jays here; they’ll rack up some hits unless they’re very unlucky.

Some more spots to consider, even though the implied totals aren’t that big:

• Cubs vs. Brandon Pfaadt

  • Pfaadt has a super low K% but has avoided hard contact like few others I’ve ever seen. It’s not a good spot for him, he projects for just 9.7 points, and the Cubs are a stackable offense

• Royals vs. Max Scherzer

  • You really only want to use the lefties here, and the Royals don’t have a ton of those in terms of high-upside lefty bats, but Scherzer is without answers against southpaw hitters.

• Cardinals vs. Chris Bassitt

  • Lots of old SPs on this slate are just barely holding onto their MLB careers. Bassitt has a 6.5% K-BB% this year in 67.1 innings.

Pitchers

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Happy Monday, everybody. Last week of August, we’re down to the last month of the season here. Enjoy it.

We’re going to lead off today with Mr. Robbie Ray of the Padres. We can bet his overall on walks today versus the Pirates. He’s projected at 3.58. We can get him two and a hit that line three games in a row. There are enough guys in the lineup for Pittsburgh that walk over a 9% rate for me. There’s definitely upside here for Captain Walk-A-Lot. I really wish they’d let us ladder these. I would ladder them all the time for guys like Ray. Go look at his K-to-BB percentage and what it’s gone to. It’s been -1.5 this month, and the guy’s just a walk machine.

Robbie Ray SDP O 2.5 BB +112 1.5u DK

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My weekend of galavanting around with fantasy football stuff is done, and we’re locked into to the stretch run of the MLB season, starting tonight on this Monday slate.

It’s a goofy 7:40pm start time for a seven-game slate that features a bunch of West Coast action. We have games in Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Seattle, and San Diego. So lock is later than usual, and you’ll have to stay up real late to know how it turned out.

Weather

A bunch of west coast games means we shouldn’t have rain issues. I hardly see a drop of precipitation in the forecasts across the board, so we’re all clear here to get this started off clean.

Game Info

Spot 1: Twins vs. Jeffrey Springs

6.35 implied runs, +1.85 over average. Jeffrey Springs has had major issues at home. He has a 6.46 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and a 2.5 HR/9. I don’t know if the Athletics knew that they’d be playing three seasons in Sacramento when they acquired this guy, but if they did, that makes absolutely no sense. Springs is one of the league’s highest fly ball rate pitchers, and this park laps the field in allowing homers.

So it hasn’t been good for Springs. He’s been half decent against lefties, but is in the pits against righties. The Twins project to put eight righties in the lineup, so it’s all systems go for them. I’m fully buying the chalk here. Plenty of rally killers coming.

If you want to put the contrarian angle on it, you could say that home runs are better for one-off plays rather than full five-man stacks. The way to hit on a five-man stack as a whole is to put together a bunch of hits in a row. Of course, a bunch of home runs in a row is better than any other kind of hit, but the Twins could get 3-4 homers and still not be the top-scoring stack. We have some nice prices on the Twins as well:

1. Keaschall $4,300

2. Buxton $6,000

3. Jeffers $5,000

4. Bell $4,500

5. Lewis $4,900

6. Clemens (LHB) $5,400

7. Lee $4,200

8. Culpepper $3,300

9. Kreidler $3,200

They are higher priced than usual, but you don’t have to pay $5k per play to stack the Twinkies tonight. You should prefer the fly ball hitters if picking between guys. The biggest FB% hitters:

• Buxton 33%

• Clemens 33%

• Keaschall 29%

• Jeffers 29%

• Lee 29%

Maybe that’s the proper five-man stack if you’re choosing.

Spot 2: Cubs vs. Merrill Kelly

19 runs last night. The Cubs are a buzzsaw. They’re 4th in the league in homers and they have a lot of guys swinging it well all at the same time right now. You should be able to get some lower ownership on them against one of the league’s most hittable pitchers in Kelly. It’s in Arizona, which might hurt the Cubs slightly, but it’s not a horrible park for hitting by any means.

The D’Backs bullpen profiles really well tonight, being #3 on the bullpen board tonight. But if the Cubs take it to Kelly like they did to Miller last night, they get to see the bad arms in that bullpen.

They are more expensive than the Twins:

1. PCA $6,600

2. Suzuki $5,300

3. Busch $4,600

4. Bregman $5,600

5. Happ $4,300

6. Hoerner $4,700

7. Ramirez $3,800

8. Conforto $3,300

9. Amaya $2,700

The one-offs are tough to pick up, but the full stack makes sense. It’s kind of the inverse of the Twins thing.

I think you could do a four-man Cubs with 2-3 plays from the Twins and feel pretty great about that. It would require paying way down at pitcher, but we’ll get to those options later.

Spot 3: Guardians vs. George Klassen

Hold the phone! Klassen is good now, isn’t he? We’ll talk about him. But he’s pitched great in his last two and has turned the walk rate thing around in this recent sample. It’s a small sample, and it could all go south. But Klassen’s slider is wicked, and the Guardians implied total here makes no sense to me. So this is an avoid to me.

But I might be biased in favor of Klassen just because we were on him early and it looks to have been the right lean.

Spot 4: Reds vs. Whisenhunt

How I know that I don’t have the absolute perfect projection model is that it sometimes it picks out a player to hate to a level that doesn’t really make sense statistically. That’s the case with how the model feels about Whisenhunt.

I have the Reds projecting #2 in fantasy points behind the Twins, and not far behind.

Whisenhunt has a 15% K%, a 13% BB%, and a .379 xwOBA allowed in seven starts. So he has been very, very bad. But this is a bad Reds lineup in San Francisco. Not typically a spot you’d want to go to, but the projection model has surprised me in the past and it might do that again tonight if the Reds go out and have a big game. They’re certainly affordable outside of Stewart & Elly.

Those are the big four spots. No other team implies much above their season average.

Pitchers

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Happy Kade Anderson Day to all those that are celebrating. Zero chance we’re not laddering him today and here as well. In 18 starts for the Arkansas Travelers (Texas League) in 2026, Anderson went 10-1 with a 1.06 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over 93.1 innings. He allowed just 47 hits, 11 earned runs, and 4 home runs while walking only 13 batters and striking out 135. That works out to roughly 13.0 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, and a 10.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Opponents hit .147/.183/.216 against him for a .399 OPS, and he posted a 40.5% strikeout rate with a 3.9% walk rate numbers that ranked among the best in all of Minor League Baseball among qualified pitchers.

Kade Anderson SEA O 5.5k -104 2u and O 6.5k +190 1u and O 7.5k +390 .5u

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The Run Environment

Happy all Kade Anderson day to all those that play season long too. The slate presents a massive market divergence. The simulation model highlights Los Angeles Angels at Texas as an outlier, projecting a slate-high 11.36 combined runs. The next-highest game totals trail by a wide margin: Cleveland at Colorado (9.69), Detroit at Kansas City (9.48), and San Francisco at Boston (9.45). Texas alone commands a 6.53 projected team total, putting them 0.85 runs ahead of Seattle (5.68) and 1.27 runs clear of the heavily owned Cleveland bats.

The market read reveals a total mispricing of ownership. Cleveland’s offense carries roughly 110% combined ownership across their core: Jose Ramirez (18%), Steven Kwan (17%), Nathaniel Lowe (16%), Angel Genao (16%), Patrick Bailey (13%), and Travis Bazzana (10%). Meanwhile, Texas holds the top scoring environment on the board, yet only Corey Seager (7%) sits above 6% ownership. The field is paying an inflated altitude premium on the slate’s second best offense while letting the top run environment slip by unowned.

A similar cognitive bias extends to the pitching pool, where the slate’s highest owned arm is a home underdog, and an elite option facing a sub 3.50 projected run environment carries just 10% ownership.

Weather

Pitching….Happy Kade Anderson Day

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The line that’s too off today is Mackenzie Gore just struck out nine a couple weeks ago against the Angels. We get his line back at 6.5 on an 8.12 projection for a guy that’s, again, got a 26% whiff rate this season, a 21.5% putaway rate that’s frankly impressive, and a 13% swinging strike rate. That lines up low at the value.

MacKenzie Gore TEX O 6.5k -116 1u DK

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I’m coming at you from the Ohio Turnpike. I took a break from drive to Pittsburgh for our fantasy football draft so I wouldn’t miss a Friday night slate. So I hope that a bunch of you are still reading things and benefiting from them!

But it will be quicker today!

Game Data

13 games, four offensive spots popping in implied total and implied total above season average:

1. Cleveland vs. Tanner Gordon (in Coors)

2. Dodgers vs. Bubba Chandler (in LA)

3. Astros vs. JT Ginn (in Houston)

4. D’Backs vs. Nick Lodolo (in Arizona)

Cleveland is running away with it. None of those other three spots are super attractive to me off the top. But Cleveland is a pretty cheap lineup in Coors against Gordon and his pitch-to-contact ways.

So I’m not telling you anything secret here, but it seems like a great spot to take some value from here. Kwan /Lowe/Genao/Ramirez/Martinez would be my favorites at the price points.

Pitchers

Lots of viable names on the board tonight, I’m sorry we can’t take the time to go more into them individually.

Gore and Detmers square off in Texas, and they’re the top two projections on the board. The price on Gore just won’t come up. But it’s true that he’s been projecting better than his results end up being almost every time. But I can’t veer far away from that Gore spot at home. It’s a reasonable tourney fade as usual. The Angels did just put 18 runs on the board last night. That doesn’t mean anything for tonight, let’s not do recency “they’re hot” stuff, but it does at least show us that they’re not a total rollover lineup.

As for Detmers, his pitch counts are normal after a short start a couple times ago. I guess they’re riding him out, and Texas is beatable. They’re a tougher matchup right now than they were earlier in the year, but Detmers has a lot of ceiling and looked excellent last start.

I don’t like Schlittler much for $11K against a contact-heavy Blue Jays lineup. You pretty much need 7+ strikeouts at $11K to have a chance for it to be worth it, and we can’t say the Yankees lineup is handing these SPs easy wins at this point.

The Sean Manaea projection is very nice at 17.9 points for just $7600. The projections really like picking on this White Sox lineup with lefties, and Manaea is on a good run of things right now.

I think Joey Cantillo is a tourney play even in Coors. He is getting a ton of strikeouts, won’t have to deal with Hunter Goodman, and has a lot of ceiling for those reasons. Obviously it’s not a cash play with his lack of efficiency and the park environment, but I could see 6+ strikeouts with ease in this one, add on an extra inning and a win bonus if the Guardians stack smashes and you have yourself a nice play there.

Sonny Gray $9100 and Yamamoto $10,600 seem like great cash plays to me. Neither guy has a ton of ceiling, but the floors and matchups are very strong. Gray takes on the Giants and Yamamoto gets a home matchup with the Pirates.

Hayden Wesneski $6400 would also make my short list for tourneys. You want to play pretty much anybody against the Athletics away from Sacramento right now, and he is more than good enough to take advantage of that soft lineup.

Don’t sleep too much on Ryan Gusto at $6000. Decent matchup for him against a radically changed Nationals lineup. Wesneski is a better play at $400 more, but I’d have Gusto exposure if I were playing 20 lineups tonight. I think he’s sneakily kinda decent for 5+ strikeouts.

Noah Cameron at $7400 is still pretty cheap for a guy who has had as much success as he’s had recently. Fine spot against the Tigers for him.

CASH OPTIONS: Yamamoto, S Gray, Detmers,

Tourneys: Gore, Detmers, Manaea, Cantillo, Gray, Cameron, Wesneski, Eduardo Rodriguez

Top Hitters

My pay-up would probably be Jose Ramirez in this spot. He hasn’t really hit like a $6K player much this year, but in Coors it’s hard to pass up on.

Biggest Values

Those are mostly really poor hitters woh are priced very, very cheap. That doesn’t often smash.

Let’s look at the guys with the combination of 8+ point projection and 2x+ value:

The model is liking the Mariners against the lefty Boyd. They’re in Seattle, though, where it’s tough to hit, but the ownership will certainly be low. The Cubs bullpen is pretty bad as well.

I think you can also play some Reds against E-Rod. We’re all kinda waiting for it to fall apart for Rodriguez, but he’s been so good that people aren’t going to play the Reds. It’s a good spot for a very low-owned stack, and it doesn’t feel awful clicking on Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz, and Dane Myers even with the rest of that lineup being really bad behind them.

Single lineup build, disregarding ownership, I’d probably jam in Yamamoto and Sonny Gray, and take all the cheap Guardians and go from there.

For a tourney angle, I’m playing Wesneski and Manaea, I think. Then we can build with some of the more expensive Cleveland hitters and differentiate with PCA, Tatis, and a couple Mariners or Reds play to really get some low ownership.

Those are my quick thoughts, but obviously I haven’t put the same level of research into this Friday slate. Just didn’t want to leave you hanging if you were waiting to hear from me!

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We had a nice 2u day yesterday so I’m willing to bet on Paul Skenes today. They gave him the extra rest off after his last outing, and we get to get his line at 5.5. It’s probably going to close at 6.5 once we get closer to game time. We’re actually going to take it up there because we project him at 7. I get how I looked last time, but again, this is a guy that has a 28% whiff rate, a 30% K rate, and almost 15% swinging straight up. It’s Skenes. He’s too good, and Detroit really struggles way more versus righties than lefties. They’re a top-10 K-rate team in the league. Most of their guys are in the 20% K rate versus righties, and this is too good a matchup to not take Skenes on.

Paul Skenes PIT O 5.5k -158 1u DK and O 6.5k +145 1u DK

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If you didn’t have the Brewers last night, it was a long, slow, painful death.

The Run Environment

Sim totals, top to bottom: LAD at COL 10.37, NYY at BAL 10.25, ATH at KC 9.90, WSH at TEX 9.80, STL at CIN 9.62, LAA at HOU 9.41, SF at CLE 8.23, SEA at MIL 8.21, TOR at TB 7.45. Team totals: LAD 5.66, CLE 5.45, WSH 5.34, KC 5.26, NYY 5.25, BAL 5.00, then a cliff.

Here is the whole slate in two numbers. Coors clears 9.5 runs in 52.2% of sims. Camden clears 9.5 in 53.8%. The Yankees and Orioles game is the better over, and it will get a fraction of the attention, because one park has a reputation and the other has a scoreboard.

So the trap is Coors bats at any price as I am always willing to fade Coors, and the quiet spot is Washington in Arlington at 5.34 against a 4.64 strikeout arm. I am writing this article early and we do not have much ownership yet.

Weather

Pitching

The Stud

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We are going to start off today with Mr. Eric Lauer now of the Los Angeles Dodgers against the Colorado Rockies. His hit, walk, earned run line today is 11.5, and we project him at 9.23. That is a negative 2.27 difference. Lauer has been better since coming over to the Dodgers, short of that shelling he took in Chicago. Hopefully that version of him doesn’t show up. The Rockies struggle more versus left-handed pitching, and that’s just too big a gap for me to not bet even at the juice.

Eric Lauer LAD U 11.5 H.BB.ER -149 1u DK

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Weather

Looks like Chicago is an interesting spot. The Cubs host the White Sox. We have rain and winds blowing out.

That is a bullpen game for the White Sox, and Kevin Gausman is going for the Cubs. I don’t think we have interest in the pitchers there, even in a normal environment. But the weather report would push us off the pitchers.

Game Data

It’s Dodgers in Coors week. Those stacks came through last night. I ended up playing Ohtani, but not Muncy or Snell, so I didn’t get there.

So it’s another night of the slate being dictated around how to get Dodgers into the lineups. It’s Ryan Feltner for the Rockies. He is better than Sugano, but still not close to good enough to take us off the Dodgers. They got even more expensive:

$7100 for Ohtani, $5700 for Muncy, $6100 for Freeman, $4500 for Pages. It’s going to be tough, but we’re going to have to get there somehow.

The second-best spot is the Royals, again. This is just a repeat of last night’s slate. Last night, the proper path was Snell + Dodgers bats and then a bunch of punts to make the lineup work. They take on Jack Perkins in this one.

Pretty expensive at the top of the lineup, but lots of value in the 4-7 range. Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino are both back and cheaper than they’ve been in the past. Although neither guy was hitting when healthy this year.

Spot 3 is Houston against George Klassen. So red flag alert there, we kinda like Klassen!

Klassen’s issue is mainly the walk rate. He has a 14.3% SwStr% and 57% GB%, and I love both of those numbers for him. So I’m off the Astros stack idea.

Spot 4: Texas vs. Jackson Kent

Kent is filling a role for the Nationals right now. He ramped up the velo and had a nice season in the minors, and he made a decent start in his debut. But he looks like a AAAA-type pitcher at best. So we can use Texas here at home.

Those are very nice prices for a five-man stack, but you probably can’t put them in there with Dodgers.

Spot 5: Cubs vs. White Sox bullpen

They could get a few innings against Erick Fedde. The White Sox bullpen does have four lefties, so they can try to neutralize PCA in that way.

The rain could be an issue, and the Cubs prices aren’t favorable, but they’re in play for a stack if it’s looking dry enough. Those winds are blowing out.

Other good matchups:

• Nationals vs. Cal Quantrill

• Red Sox vs. Merrill Kelly

• Rockies vs. Eric Lauer

Pitchers

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I didn’t have time to get in the Quinn Matthews bet this morning. I’m super sad about that. It was a great matchup. Hit his projection. Went well over. Wish we wouldn’t have missed it, but I had to pay the bills.

Alright, this one’s gonna get real brave here, but we’re gonna go back to Mr. Luis Castillo, now of the Chicago White Sox. He’s looked much better in his last two outings against Boston and then showed up against Cincy. Now he gets to face the Cubs, who are the number four K-rate team in the league against right-handed pitching and who are also gonna be down some guys today. His line is only 4.5, and we project him at 5.11. In his last three starts, he’s got his whiff rate up to 35%, a 25% K rate, and a 17% swing-and-miss rate. Let’s see if he can keep this streak alive and the newly appointed crosstown rivalry for him.

Luis Castillo CWS O 4.5k -115 1u FD and 5.5k +189 1u FD

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Weather

There’s some rain in the forecast, but nothing that looks like a legitimate PPD risk. So we can move forward without worrying about that.

Game Info

It’s a seven-game Monday slate. And there is one RUNAWAY spot with the Dodgers going into Coors Field to face Tomoyuki Sugano.

They are almost two runs above the rest of the slate. So it’s a “don’t overthink it” night. Just play a bunch of Dodgers and don’t worry about the ownership. No other spot is in the same zip code here.

The second spot to know about is the Royals at home against Marson Barnett and a beaten-down Athletics squad. Barnett has a 21.7% K% with an 11.4% BB%. But a 9.8% SwStr% and a low 35% GB%. The JA SIERA is 4.12. This isn’t the worst pitcher in the league, but he’s a bad one. Key point to make - this game’s in Kansas City. So it’s not a dream spot for the Royals, who have not scored many runs this year.

The projections and the implied total likes them here. They are a reasonable team to stack with the Dodgers. But you’ll be looking at the value guys in the KC lineup since you have to pay all of that cash for the Dodgers.

• Sal Perez $3300

• Nick Loftin $3100

• Michael Massey $3600

• Isaac Collins $3000

• John Rave $3200

• Kyle Isbel $2500

The Red Sox are the third team implying well above their season average. They’re at home against a lefty, Mitch Bratt.

The prices are high on the Red Sox though as they’ve done very well this summer. But they aren’t priced out of play.

• Sogard $3100

• Rafaela $4500

• Contreras $4700

• Durbin $3500

Those are my four favorites hitting from the right side and being reasonably priced.

The Braves (4.99 implied, +.26) and Cubs (4.94, -0.28) are the other teams near a five-run implication. Atlanta sees Bailey Ober, which is a nice spot, and the Cubs have Luis Castillo. Two veteran fly ball pitchers against two pretty good lineups.

So those are the five offenses to focus on. I’d order them like this:

1. Dodgers

2. Braves

3. Royals

4. Red Sox

5. Cubs

Pitchers

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

They put Alonzo at leadoff, and Mayo batted third last night, and everybody but them went yard. Sometimes that’s how the cookie crumbles.

Ian Seymour has continued to be very dominant this season. He’s currently put up a 28.4% K rate, a 22.9% putaway rate, and a 14.5% swinging strike rate. Baltimore is the number 4 K-weighted team in the league versus left-handed pitching, and we project him over 7 today. That’s too good a value on a 6.5 line for a guy that literally just put up nine a couple games ago in Colorado.

Ian Seymour TB O 6.5k -111 1u FD

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The Sim Sheet, August 15: The Field Loves Reid Detmers and Somehow Forgot the Angels

The field found the obvious pitching chalk. It just stopped one step too early.

Reid Detmers projects well and is expected to reach 40% ownership. At the same time, the Angels carry the highest team total on the slate at 6.10, yet no Angels hitter is projected above 10% ownership.

That is the slate.

The popular pitcher and the overlooked offense are not competing bets. They can win together. An Angels scoring outburst improves Detmers’ path to the win bonus, while a strong Detmers start keeps the game under control. The field is comfortable using the pitcher but has barely invested in the lineup behind him.

Texas will get more attention than it deserves. The Angels will get far less than they deserve. That is where the leverage starts.

Slate Overview

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Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!

Well, yesterday was super disappointing. deGrom getting pulled for a tricep in the second inning, when he already had three Ks, was just a bummer. It’s sad, man, that that guy had so much potential to just be an all-time pitcher, and we’ll never know what he really, really could have been because of all his arm issues over the years. Disappointing, but it is what it is. I ended up making the bet after I’d put the card out. I saw Trent make a bet on a NRFI for the Philly game last night. If you know anything about Trent and follow him on X, the guy’s an all-time mush. I went and bet Schwarber to go yard first at-bat. Wish I could have got that out sooner, but I didn’t see it until right before the game, but help make up for my deGrom loss.

So I have to admit, Sandy at 5.5 Ks today really has me intrigued. I'm super shocked that he's only at this line, considering he just put eight up on the Angels and one of these faced higher K-rate teams in the league. He's been pretty successful this year. We project him for 6.36 today on a 5.5 line, and so we're gonna take a shot here. Over his last five games, he’s got his putaway rate up to 18% at 12% swinging straight rate against the number one key rate in the team. We’re getting 5.5 at -125. It’s too good to pass up.

Sandy Alcantara MIA O 5.5k -125 1u FD

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Weather

Ten-game slate, and no weather concerns. We’re in the clear for this beautiful Friday night in the US of A. I guess there’s a game in Canada, so shout-out to Canada too, I guess.

Game Data

It’s a low projected run-scoring night. Nobody is above 5.3 implied runs, although that could change. There are five spots standing above the rest in raw implication:

Braves vs. Brandon Pfaadt

Very interesting spot here. Pfaadt has made eight starts since getting back in the Arizona rotation. And he has a 1.32 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP. That’s the good news, and we’re hoping it will take down the ownership on the Braves. I say that because the underlying stuff is bad:

• 12.4% K%

• 3.8% BB%

• 3% HR/FB

Pfaadt has long had trouble with left handed power, but somehow he’s managed to only give up one homer in these eight starts. The GB% is fine (47%), but the 3% HR/FB is totally fake and presents a great spot to buy in on some Braves left-handed power. That’s mainly Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson.

Maybe Pfaadt has found some secret formula to keep the hard hit balls out of the air. He’s allowed just a 10% Air Pull% during this stretch and a .244 xwOBA. He has consistently missed hard contact. But that’s not something we want to rely on as predictive. I think it could unravel for Pfaadt, and the markets like the Braves here a lot relative to the rest of the slate.

Athletics vs. Kumar Rocker

Rocker is a blow-up risk, but he also goes out there from time to time and dominates with his slider. It’s a risky spot in Sacramento with his 36% GB%, there are multiple homers on the table in this spot.

But who is going to hit them for the Athletics? They don’t hit fly balls. Only Soderstrom has a good xwOBA against righties this year:

I like Soderstrom and Butler as one-offs, but this lineup just doesn’t seem to have stack-worthy upside right now.

Rays vs. Chris Bassitt

The return of Bassitt! He hasn’t been seen in the Majors since June 3rd. He had a 5.27 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 14% K%, and 8% BB% before getting hurt. He does not appear to be good. He built up to six innings in his rehab, so the Rays should see a good bit of him.

The problem for DFS is that the prices are through the roof after the Rays played a couple series in Colorado and Sacramento.

Yandy’s $5.3K, Caminero $6.3K, Aranda $4.5K, Hicks $4.3K, Simpson $4.1K, Mullins $4.5K. These aren’t good prices in a game in Tampa Bay. But Bassitt is one of the more hittable pitchers on the slate, so I can get into some Rays minis.

Dodgers vs. Robert Gasser

Another big NL showdown in LA. The Dodgers are a -193 favorite behind Yamamoto. The O/U is just 7.5.

Gasser has been serviceable for the Brewers, because nobody is allowed to pitch bad on that team. 17.1% K-BB%, .311 xwOBA, 5.7% Brl% since June 1st. Not a great stack spot for the Dodgers

Rangers vs. Jump

Jump’s game log is a doozy.

He’s coming off of two pretty good starts in a row now. He didn’t give up a homer in his first six starts, and then gave up seven in his next five starts, and now he hasn’t given up any in his last three starts.

Typical rookie pitcher with questionable command. It’s boom-or-bust. I don’t think it’s a spot to stack the Rangers a ton, but you can mix in some of those. Good news for Texas is that the Athletics have the worst bullpen on the slate by the way I grade it:

The Rangers are healthy and in pretty good offensive form right now, I’ll like a few guys, but I don’t want to go crazy on stacking against Jump, because he can be very good.

Let’s sort it by implied total above season-average run scoring:

Angels vs. Seth Lugo

Bad offense, bad pitcher. Tough spot to choose. Lugo’s given up 12 bombs in his last 12 starts and has a 7.7% K-BB%. The Angels lineup doesn’t have much juice, but they offer some value.

Meckler/Schanuel/Ballesteros are interesting, and I don’t think we’ll get much ownership on the upside of Trout & Neto.

Royals vs. Grayson Rodriguez

Really bad Royals lineup against G-Rod who has pitched pretty well his last three starts.

It’s not great stuff, but he’s not the same dude he was early in the year when he wasn’t getting strikeouts and getting hit extremely hard.

He has still gotten hit hard in these last four starts (.407 xwOBA, 5 HR). I like the one-offs from KC like Jensen and Witt. And there’s some value in Massey/Perez/Collins as well:

Mets vs. Andrew Alvarez

About 75-80 pitches coming from Alvarez if things go decently well, and the Mets with their pretty hot offense get to face a bad bullpen. And Alvarez isn’t great in his own right.

4.3% K-BB%, 4.69 JA SIERA. I’ve been on the Mets a lot lately, and I will be back there tonight.

Not a lot to like in the Nats bullpen, although they do rank outside of the bottom five tonight.

Yankees vs. Shane Bieber

This would be a stack spot if the Yankees had Judge and the regulars. But they don’t, and they haven’t scored runs in a long time.

Bieber has been mostly bad this year. 4.6% K-BB%, 44% GB%, .398 xwOBA allowed.

But it’s another spot where you just don’t know which Yankees players to push, and they’re on the road here with the Blue Jays having a decent bullpen.

A couple more that the projections like:

Nationals vs. Robert Stock

Stock has been forced into the Mets rotation and he just got absolutely trucked by the Pirates in his last start.

There are worse pitchers. At least he can get whiffs, but a 37% GB% with the .360 xwOBA show that he can give up the dinger. The Nats, somehow, haven’t missed a beat offensively with Wood out, and they have some cheap guys swinging good bats right now.

Abimelec Ortiz should be popular tonight. He’s hitting bombs daily lately and remains at $2300. Great play there. The rest of the lineup is hard to get excited about. I do like Jacob Young even though he’s hitting 9th, and CJ Abrams has been one of the best fantasy bats in the league since he got hot again in July.

Mariners vs. Peter Lambert

Just some cheap bats here in the Seattle lineup, and the M’s always get a boost when outside of Seattle. But Lambert has been pretty good.

14.2% K-BB%, 3.64 JA SIERA. He’s fine. The projections like the prices on the Mariners, but how often have they come through as a full stack? Not often, right?

The prices on Young, Canzone, Naylor, and Donovan are just too cheap to me.

So it’s a tough night for stacking. No individual spot really stands out. Here’s where I’m landing:

1. Braves vs. Pfaadt

2. Mets vs. Alvarez

3. Rays vs. Bassitt

4. Rangers vs. Jump

5. Yankees vs. Bieber

But there are a lot of different ways you can go tonight. With no team standing out on the implication board, I think it’s reasonable to avoid the full stacks tonight and just play a bunch of the best plays from different spots.

Pitchers

Studs

Ordering this screenshot by price:

Chris Sale ($10,700) at home is a cash spot. Top value of these stud pitchers at 1.9x. The D’Backs make a lot of contact, but they do most of their damage at home:

Just a .678 OPS on the road with a significantly higher K%. Sale is probably my SP1 tonight.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500) vs. MIL

The Brewers are middle-of-the-road offense, all things considered. They don’t hit homers, their K% is middling. So Yamamoto is fine.

Yamamoto lacks upside, though. He hasn’t had more than seven strikeouts in his last five starts and has just a 23.8% K% on the year. He’s a floor play rather than a ceiling play.

I don’t really get the high ownership on him. I like Sale a lot better, and he’s well behind Gavin Williams in projection, too.

Gavin Williams ($10,200) vs. SD

Padres since July 1st has been a very good lineup. A K% below 20%, a .768 OPS (.780 vs. righties).

Merrill, France, Tatis, and Rengifo have been very good, and Machado and Cronenworth aren’t slouches either.

Tough spot for Williams, but he does have a freaking 36% K% and 6.3% BB% in his last 12 starts. It would be better if this game were in San Diego where we aren’t afraid of the long ball, but it’s in Cleveland. It’s far from an ideal spot for Williams, but you can’t leave off a guy with this kind of strikeout ability.

Gerrit Cole $9,700 vs. TOR

Not a good strikeout spot for Cole. This Blue Jays lineup makes so much contact. Their lineup averages out to a sub-17% K%. That’s as low as you’ll typically find in the Majors.

I have just a 4.8-strikeout projection on Cole. The prop is at 4.5, so that tells you something as well. Cole can get through seven innings and win, like Tolle did last night, but it’s not a good spot at all for his ceiling because strikeouts are so important on DraftKings.

Mid Range

Here are the $7000-$9500 options, ordered by projection:

Gage Jump ($7,000) vs. Rangers

I’ve got Jump for 16.5 points, The Bat X has him at 15.4. So we both agree he’s well above a 2x projection here. The risk is that he has a bad home run game at home, which he’s at a couple of. But generally, he’s been pretty good. He’s gone 10 of 14 starts without giving up a homer, and his HR/9% is under 0.9 for the year.

Plus he has some strikeout upside. We’ve seen that lately. This Texas lineup can strike out:

This is a sneaky, sneaky spot to use Jump in. Limit it to tourneys, but I’m pretty interested here at low ownership.

Peter Lambert ($9000) vs. Mariners

Hefty price for Lambert. Not as much strikeout in the M’s lineup with having sent Colt Emerson back down. Raleigh is the only very high K% (against rightie) in this spot. With the studs we have $1-$2K above in price, I don’t see much reason to use a lot of Lambert. I don’t see the ceiling being there to justify the price.

Landen Roupp ($7500) vs. Rockies

Roupp at home against the Rockies. That’s about as good as it gets for Roupp.

More strikeouts at home, a lower ERA, a much lower WHIP. It’s not a good Rockies lineup, especially away from home.

I could see using Roupp even in cash if there was an expensive stack we really liked. I don’t think that’s the right move tonight, but Roupp in tourneys is pretty strong.

The rest of this group projects very poorly and I have no good reason to play any of them. George Kirby is on the road, Gasser up against the Rockies with a potential quick hook, Pfaadt massively over-performing and up agains the top implied run total. Michael King in a spot where he’ll struggle to even get four strikeouts.

Cheap Options

Looking for those punt options down here.

We have three options in my view. I’d order them like this:

Grayson Rodriguez ($5,700) vs. KC

Last three outings: 15 points vs. HOU, 21 points vs. BAL, 14 points vs. MIA

Nothing you have to have, but good returns at $5700. And this is a very soft matchup with the Royals. That said, the Royals have a lower team K% at 19%:

I think Grayson is a mass entry mix-in when going to some expensive bats at best. There’s nobody threatening for cash consideration down here, not even close. But I do like that we’ve seen 6+ strikeouts from Grayson in each of the last three and the fastball velo has trended upward to make sense of that.

Kyle Freeland ($5,500) vs. SF

Somehow this guy has been worse on the road. 7.81 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. I’m not sure why we’d ever consider him, but he is in the nut spot in San Fran.

Plus he has five starts at 20+ points this year, so he has potential 4x upside if things all go perfectly. But at the end of the day, I don’t think it’s super wise. I’d rather play Grayson, I think. The Giants for all of their problems don’t strike out a ton. I think like 14 points is a best-case for Freeland here.

Seth Lugo ($6,900) vs. LAA

The Angels always bring some SP ownership with them. It’s probably the worst lineup on the slate.

But is Lugo good enough to take advantage? He has had two pretty good starts in his last four.

But he has a 10% K-BB% on the year with an 18% K%.

I have him for 13.2 points; The Bat has him at 14.0. That would be fine for the price; he’s another guy you could use if you’re loading up on bats.

Kumar Rocker ($6,500) vs. ATH

The Athletics are a bad lineup, and we’ve seen pitchers beat them badly. Rocker is in a rough patch right now, but we know the kind of strikeout upside he has when the slider is really cooking, and he’s sneaking the [bad] fastball in there.

He has thrown 75, 88, 88, and 69 pitches in his last four. So he’s likely going to come in under 90 pitches here. He has three starts of 7+ strikeouts, and this is a good matchup to have another one of those days, but overall I don’t want to use him in this park. He’s not reliable at all, and I’m kinda doubting the upside since he is basically a one-pitch guy.

Cash Pitchers

• Chris Sale $10,700 vs. ARI

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto $10,500 vs. MIL

• Gavin Williams $10,200 vs. SD

I think we should just find a way to get two of those guys in there. There are decent mid-range options, but nobody truly jumping off the page. The way to play cash is to take as little risk as possible at SP.

Sale’s the lock for me, and I guess I like Williams for $300 less than Yamamoto given the 1.5-point higher projection.

Tourney Pitchers

• Chris Sale $10,700 vs. ARI

• Gavin Williams $10,200 vs. SD

• Gage Jump $7,000 vs. TEX

• Landen Roupp $7,500 vs. COL

• Grayson Rodriguez $5,700 vs. KC

• Seth Lugo $6,900 vs. LAA

• Kumar Rocker $6,500 vs. ATH

Hitters

A reminder about my stack list:

1. Braves vs. Pfaadt

2. Mets vs. Alvarez

3. Rays vs. Bassitt

4. Rangers vs. Jump

5. Yankees vs. Bieber

Let’s go position by position!

Catchers

I’ll sort by play score to narrow the pool in this 20-team slate. This is a combination of projection, value, and ceiling.

Drake Baldwin is my favorite play against Pfaadt. But maybe we don’t have the money for that.

Moises Ballesteros $2,800 is in play against Lugo, the model really, really likes him in this spot.

Carter Jensen $4,700 vs. Grayson Rodriguez has all kinds of home run potential, but he’s expensive for a guy in a bad lineup.

Salvador Perez $3,400 remains very cheap, but has a .628 OPS this year and a .197 average on the road.

I like Francisco Alvarez $3,400 for cheap home run upside.

CASH OPTIONS: BALDWIN & BALLESTEROS

First Base

Real hard to get away from Abimelec Ortiz tonight at $2300. Should be hitting #2 against Robert Stock and a bad bullpen.

Shohei Ohtani $6,400 isn’t right tonight for cash. Gasser is a tougher lefty and the Brewers have that good bullpen.

Matt Olson $5,200 is my favorite upper-price play against Pfaadt, but we are betting on Pfaadt regressing a lot in a hurry in the lack of hard contact stuff we talked about with him.

Josh Naylor $3,300 is really cheap and that turns into a 2.55x value proposition.

So Ortiz/Olson/Naylor are my favorite plays, and Ben Rice $5,900 should probably get some tourney love.

CASH PLAY: ABIMELEC ORTIZ

Second Base

Jazz Chisholm $4,500 has loads of upside with his power and speed, but he hasn’t converted that upside very often this year. The matchup is good with Bieber, but it’d be better if this game were in New York.

Jose Tena $2,900 is the value play if truly hitting #3. Robert Stock is not one to be afraid of.

Cole Young $3,300 is a similar play to Tena. Not a ton of upside, but hitting up there in the lineup and very cheap.

Another punt play not pictured is Jorge Polanco $2,200, but he looks totally busted.

Jeff McNeil $3,200 might lead off against Kumar Rocker. That would be pretty nice. And he’s got a .272 xBA this year and a .740 OPS since July 1st. But just one homer on a 1.3% Brl%.

Thee’s really no play to like at the position. Chisholm is the top projection, but it might make sense to punt it with Tena/McNeil.

CASH PLAY: JEFF MCNEIL

Third Base

Pretty gross position here, too. Only Jose Ramirez and Junior Caminero are above nine points, and they’re both expensive in less than great spots.

Bo Bichette $4,300 is a reasonable play in this good spot for the Mets. He has slugged .455 against lefties this year, and he’ll get a couple of cracks against Andrew Alvarez and then the Nats bullpen.

The punt values:

• Angel Genao $2,400

• Jorbit Vivas $2,700

• Brendan Donovan $2,900

CASH PLAY: BO BICHETTE, JOSE RAMIREZ

Shortstop

Not a good value on Witt at $6,000, but he and CJ Abrams are the top plays on the board if you have the cash.

Francisco Lindor $4,500 has a near nine-point projection with a 2x value, that’s the kind of thing we like. I like the Mets on this slate, so I might go to Bichette + Lindor in cash if I can’t afford Witt or Abrams.

Some punts:

• Jim Jarvis $2,600

• George Lombard Jr. $3,100

• Nasim Nunez $3,500

It’s a pretty light day for hitting in the infield. Nobody is really standing out.

Outfield

AJ Ewing has a .721 OPS with seven homers and 15 steals. If he’s leading off, he’s another Met to add to the short list.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has gotten it going in August. Four bombs, .868 OPS, so he’s looking like himself again. $5,700 though!

Christian Franklin $2,000 is projected to lead off for the Orioles. He hit six homers and stole 17 bags in 426 PAs in the minors with a 25% K% and 15% BB%. So my model is clearly too hot on him, but a $2K lead off hitter is always interesting. Let’s check his fScores:

Fine across the board in the minors, but no tool to hold onto. If he’s truly leading off, it’s a fine punt, but you can’t expect much. This isn’t a true MLB prospect.

Mike Trout $5,300 against Lugo is pretty juicy.

Yordan Alvarez $6,500 is tough to play with the Astros not doing much around him, and Kirby isn’t the best matchup, although it is better for the hitters when the game’s outside of Seattle. Not going to get to him in cash, but he’s always a decent one-off, and the ownership should be low.

Wyatt Langford $4,900 is the best play on the Rangers, but the projections aren’t too into any of these guys.

Luis Robert Jr. $3,500 is a cheap Met with power. But it hasn’t materialized much this year with a 5.5% Brl%.

Some other higher-priced options I’m seeing:

• Jac Caglianone $5,000

• Tyler Soderstrom $5,500

Both a little too pricey, but big upside plays.

Mid range options:

• Michael Harris $4,500

• Chandler Simpson $4,100

• Daylen Lile $4,200

Punts:

• Christian Franklin $2,000

• Josh Lowe $2,400

• Spencer Jones $3,200

• Brett Bateman $2,700

• Isaac Collins $3,000

• Wade Meckler $3,200

• Steven Kwan $3,100

• Zac Veen $2,300

CASH LINEUP ROUGH DRAFT

I suppose this is a risky bet on a low-scoring game in Sacramento. I just don’t love the matchups in that game. I do get some Mets and Braves. It would go haywire if Christian Franklin isn’t leading off, which is very possible.

But we’ll massage this thing as the lineups come out.

One way to free up a bunch of salary is to use Landen Roupp, who the Bat X really loves tonight.

I’d rather get two of the stud SPs, but we’ll see what happens! Maybe some extra Rangers stacks in tourneys to easen the burden if that game ruins my cash lineup.

GOOD LUCK out there tonight! Drop a like and a comment here if you read this whole thing, always good to get the validation that people are still reading this thing.. this one took me a few hours.

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The only playable DFS slate is this afternoon, so I hope you’re awake! And it’s a six-game slate with a potential rainout in Chicago (CIN/CWS):

ORANGE/YELLOW - Rain builds in during the game. Light at first, potentially heavy by the end of the game. I’ll be honest, I have no idea what the plan is here. I don’t think they can late start and wait it out, I think it’s smarter to just play ball and hope they can get the game in through the rain.

Risky there, and we’re looking to use pitchers against the Reds. So that is a big impact on this slate.

Game Info

Cubs vs. Cade Cavalli

This is a low implication for the Cubs, a third of a run below their season average. And that’s because Cavalli is pretty good. But the Cubs are on top, and they have some dudes swinging bats right now. It’s a good park to hit in, and a bad Nationals bullpen. So it’s fine, but we haven’t made much money stacking against Cavalli last night, and the -0.33 implication vs. average is a red flag.

Boston vs. Max Scherzer

Great spot for Boston against Scherzer 8.5% K-BB% and 2.1 HR/9. Scherzer just isn’t a Major League talent at this point and he’s in there for ticket sales and innings. The splits are interesting:

So you want the Boston lefties more than the righties. Big differences there. He’s actually been above-average against righties so far.

So those guys:

• Yoshida $3K

• Rutschman $4.1K

• Abreu $5.0K

• Duran $3.9K

Cleveland vs. Montero

Montero has been kinda fine.

Just a .291 xwOBA allowed. The Guardians lineup is healthy and a lot better than what we saw for a couple of months there. It’s fine to use some of those pieces, but Montero can hold his own enough for me to not want to stack Cleveland.

They’re pretty cheap outside of J-Ram, though. Montero’s another guy who doesn’t have many answers against lefties, and Cleveland has a ton of lefties here. Six of the top seven will hit from that side of the plate.

White Sox vs. Andrew Abbott

Another non-elite spot. Abbott’s a lefty and this game’s in Chicago. So that works for Abbott. You also have the rain thing going on, it could be a shortened game.

But the White Sox hit bombs, and that can be done against Abbott. So I like them if you can get ‘em at lower ownership.

Yankees vs. Logan Gilbert

And now we’re down to offenses facing studs. Gilbert is very good. But he is on the road here and can give up some homers like most of these other Mariners starts. The Yankees are a sneaky spot for a mini-stack hunting a couple of bombs.

So it’s a pretty ugly hitting slate for building stacks. Only three teams imply above their season average:

• Boston +0.33

• Cleveland +0.33

• Yankees +0.11

Pitchers

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