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The Run Environment

LAD at ATL is the only game on the board that matters for totals. The sim has it at 10.11 runs, and the Dodgers own 6.35 of that. The rest of the slate is bunched together: MIL-SD 8.72, TB-NYY 8.67, CLE-CWS 8.64. By team it goes LAD (6.35), NYY (4.70), MIL (4.62), CWS (4.61), then SD, CLE, TB, with Atlanta last at 3.76.

The field is right about the Dodgers and wrong about the other side of that game. Glasnow is 65% owned against Atlanta, and Atlanta bats are still drawing 13 to 21% (Olson 21%, Acuna 18%, Harris 18%). Both crowds can’t be right, and the sim sides with Glasnow. Hopefully the spot to go to is Chicago, 4.61 runs against an opener, with Antonacci and Colson Montgomery

It’s playoff baseball, so expect short leashes. Three of the eight starters project under two innings.

Pitching

The Stud

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Last four-game slate of the season. It’s the last one we could consider a “full slate”, and it’s pretty thin with just the four games. Let’s break it down and get ready for the 4pm eastern first pitch.

Game Data

1. Dodgers vs. Mahle

2. White Sox vs. Espino/Guards Bullpen

3. Yankees vs. Martinez

Those are the top three. It’s hard to fall in love with any offense in October. Scoring is down, every team implies at or below their season average. The bullpens will be active, and a couple of teams have their back against the wall. Let’s go quickly game-by-game and see what we can figure out.

Guardians vs. White Sox

Bullpen game on both sides. The Guardians are down 0-2, so Messick is certainly in play if they think that’s their best path forward. He’s $8,800, which is tough for a guy who you’d think would be 2-4 innings. But maybe he shuts ‘em down for three innings and grabs a win in a tight game. It’s not crazy. But if you’re playing for the “most likely”, he’s not in the mix.

You’ll see a lot of different looks and the teams will play their best matchups. From what I’m seeing, there are just two lefties in each bullpen. Righty/lefty splits aren’t big on these two teams. But I’m sure the Guardians would like that lefty-lefty advantage when Murakami is at the plate. But he hit his homers off of them, too.

Lineups & Projections:

Matchups model:

If you believe in momentum and HOTNESS, the White Sox are a play. They have been the key to a couple different DFS slates already. The vibes are high, and they’re not up against a shutdown starter in this one.

For “cash” or single entry stuff, there are no pitchers to go to. I do think some White Sox plays are solid. Vargas is really expensive, but nobody else is overly burdensome with the price.

Dodgers vs. Braves

The Braves might have to get Chris Sale in there even after he went five innings last night. That’s a tough ask of a 37-year-old, but I’m sure he’s willing and eager to get another shot at it this offseason.

But they didn’t need much help behind Tyler Mahle last time. He went seven strong against the Phillies in the Wild Card round, and he’s been phenomenal as a Brave. This is a tough spot facing the Dodgers. But he can neutralize them with the splitter if he has it going, which he has since the trade. Ohtani isn’t much of a threat right now, either. The Dodgers seem to have a knack for getting the big hit, and their lineup is deep - but it’s not as nasty of a lineup as it’s been in the past when they were younger and had a healthy Ohtani at it.

Tyler Glasnow at $10,800 with a 2-1 lead is a priority play. He’s so, so good, and they won’t have to panic and take him out if he’s in a little bit of hot water early on. He’s better than the guys that would come in from the bullpen. I don’t see them going to Skubal in this one since they have the one-game cushion and a home game to close it out on Friday if they need it. But he’s rested enough to come in and try to slam the door. It’s not like they won’t feel perfectly comfortable going Snell + Yamamoto to open the NLCS series if they make it. But I like Glasnow a lot.

Lineups & Projections:

Matchups model:

It’s tough to play either side of this one. But Mahle is still a guy with a poor history. Sometimes the splitter isn’t there, and he becomes very hittable. We should play some Dodgers stacks; they’re the top implied team and it’s not an every-time shutdown starter across from them.

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We are going back to our out under today with Nick Pivetta taking the mound in an elimination game for the Padres. They are down 0-2 and he’s only thrown 34.2 innings this year. His line is 10.5, which says he’d have to get through the lineup more than once. I don’t believe they let him get through more than once. He gets through once, maybe one batter, and then he’s out. San Diego has the best bullpen in baseball. They can’t lose this game. If there is any hint of trouble he is gone, and he is not going to do what Burke did yesterday.

Nick Pivetta SD U 10.5 Outs -122 1u DK

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I only have 20-30 minutes to write this morning. But the divisional series is upon us. Today, it looks like this:

White Sox vs. Guardians

They let Hagen Smith throw 38 pitches in game one in the Wild Card series. He delivered three innings, and now he’ll take the ball again here on three days’ rest. It’s 2-3 innings from Smith, so not enough for any real DFS consideration, even against the worst lineup remaining in the playoffs.

You’ll probably see a similar approach to that game one. They ended up getting 5.1 innings from their two young studs - Smith along with Grant Taylor.

You’ll see lots of those two as long as the White Sox are still playing ball this October.

Parker Messick makes his postseason debut. The White Sox this year slugged a little more against lefties, but struck out a touch more. Overall, though, the splits are about even.

Here are the player stats against lefties:

It’s a really good mix they’ve developed. Some contact guys, some lefty mashers, and still a couple of guys who can hit the bomb even while striking out a lot.

I think the White Sox have a real shot in this series, the Guardians are an unimpressive club and the White Sox have the advantage of being “hot”. I’m not sure “hot” is real or matters at all, but it’s possible that it does. The White Sox coasted through the Astros while the Guardians had to sit around for five days.

This Hagen Smith + Grant Taylor setup might be their best approach. I’m taking the White Sox to find a way to win this one.

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DFS Plays: Parker Messick $8,500, Guardians cheap plays (Kwan $3300, Fry $2500, Adell $3400)

The Dodgers open up as a -212 favorite. The Braves are being given about a one-third chance to win the series. Their lineup is good enough, but the pitching is a real problem. They won’t have Chris Sale available tonight. I expect them to use him like crazy, but not tonight in game one of a five-game set.

The AJ Smith-Shawver listing here is a guess. It’s a bullpen game for the Braves. They’ll be able to mix and match, but it’s a tough task against the Dodgers with Skubal on the hill.

DFS Plays: Skubal $10,000, Dodgers bats

Yankees vs. Rays

Cole did not finish the year super well. He had a 22% K% in September, but his command was still great with a 3% BB%. The Rays have seen a lot of him, and this just is not prime Cole who is going to go out there and shove with 13 strikeouts anymore.

He can pitch very well; it’s a good park to be in, and the Rays offense doesn’t have much thump outside of Junior Caminero. But I think Cole is pretty over-rated due to the name value and the bigness of the postseason.

Drew Rasmussen has his innings in the 150s for the first time, but he finished the year just fine and was so good all year. He’s the only guy I think you’ll see throwing 5+ innings this postseason, so he’s very much in play for DFS tonight. I don’t believe this will be a super quick hook unless things go very wrong.

DFS Plays: Rasmussen $8800, Cole $8100, Rays bats

Padres vs. Brewers

Here it comes! Jacob Misiorowski at $11,100 to open the playoffs after his Cy Young season. It’s at home; it will be electric.

And Robbie Ray opens the NLDS for the Padres. Ray got some decent results in the box score this year, which is all that would matter tonight, but his underlying stuff bothered me all year.

It’s a real bad spot for him. The 7% K-BB% this year pitching in Milwaukee against a very patient offense.

DFS Plays: Misiorowski, Brewers bats

Projections

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This is just a simple win or go home bet. Nola’s projection tonight is at 11.5 outs. I think Philly’s goal is to get him through the lineup one time, and we’re going to get it for plus money. Essentially, we’re betting that he’s only going to go 3 and get through the lineup. If there are any signs of trouble at all, he’s getting yanked first, second, third, and it does not matter. They will not let Nola stay in because of the nature of this game. All the money value is on the under, and I’m going to put a unit and a half on it.

Aaron Nola PHI U 11.5 Outs +105 1.5u Novig, Score, BetOpenly. Profit X ect

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Bittersweet day for me, as I love baseball. Last daily slate of the season for regular-season ball. There will be stuff for the playoffs. I love the playoffs because guys are amped up.

Speaking of amped up, Justin Verlander makes his last start today, and we’re laddering it. He’s going to come out, and he is going to literally throw his arm off. He wants to go out. The man has made me a lot of money in DFS betting over the years. Been a great career to watch. Always was a Verlander fan, and so there’s just no way I can’t not bet it today. There is no data other than it’s his last game, and he’s going to go as long as his arm is intact, into his shoulder, and his UCL isn’t torn in half.

Justin Verlander DET O 5.5k +141 1u and O 6.5k +280 .5u and O 8.5k +1200 .25u

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Last write-up of the regular season. It has been a pleasure writing for you all this year. I hope you all enjoyed the season and got better at DFS. I actually really like the playoffs, so you’ll probably just see some content from me during it. I’m a big showdown fan. I’ve done really well at them over the years, binking multiple times, so I’ll talk about that, especially up front, as we have a couple of four-game slates. Thanks again, it has been a pleasure, and let’s go win some money on the last day of the regular season that is worth playing. Tomorrow will be weird.

The Run Environment

Houston at the A’s leads the sim at 10.77 runs, and the over 9.5 hits 58.2% of the time, best on the board. Next come Colorado at the White Sox (10.36), the Angels at Seattle (10.02), St. Louis at Milwaukee (9.82), Cleveland at KC (9.36), Arizona at San Diego (8.94) and Tampa at Philly (8.75). By team total, Seattle is way out front at 6.92, then Houston at 5.44, the White Sox and A’s at 5.33, and Cleveland at 5.07.

The field will pile into Seattle, and it’s right to. A 6.92 team total with an 80.8% win probability. The trap is paying up for name arms like Corbin Burnes and Michael Wacha on this slate.

Philly is 59 degrees with a 12 mph wind blowing in, and that helps explain the slate’s lowest total. Cleveland at KC has a 24% chance of rain, so keep an eye on it before lock.

Pitching

The Stud

Kade Anderson (SEA) $7,700 vs. LAA

The environment is as good as it gets. The Angels are simming for 3.10 runs, lowest on the slate, and Seattle wins 80.8% of the time. Anderson’s 22.73 sim DK is 6.5 points ahead of the next arm, with 7.2 strikeouts over 5.33 innings and a 28.69 ceiling.

He won’t be the most expensive arm, either. Four pitchers cost more and all four project worse. He’ll be the most popular pitcher on the slate, and the field is there for the right reason. We all know how much money we made betting against the Angels to strike out this year. Anderson’s really settled in as we go. He’s one of the best young arms in the game. Enjoy going there, especially when he’s only $7,700.

Verdict: Cash lock, chalk for the right reason, and eat it in GPPs too.

The Value

Jack Perkins (ATH) $5,200 vs. HOU

Perkins sims for 13.85 DK with a 21.97 ceiling. That’s the same projection as Dustin May ($6,700) and Davis Martin ($6,300) at a $1,100 to $1,500 discount. Paired with Anderson, he costs $12,900 for both arms, which leaves $37,100 for hitters, about $4,637 per bat.

The catch is where he’s pitching. He’s in the highest-total game, against a Houston lineup simming for 5.44, and the sim has him allowing 2.6 earned runs. Perkins was a dog last week for fantasy owners and season-long. I like both sides of this game, so you can play it either way, but at $5,200, he’s just too cheap to not throw.

Tournament Arms

Griffin Jax (TB) $8,600 vs. PHI

Jax is the second-best arm in the sim at 16.25 DK, with a 22.53 ceiling. Philly is simming for just 4.12 runs with the wind blowing in, and Tampa wins 53.8%. At $8,600 he lands in the same price range as Burnes and Wacha, and when prices are that close the field tends to pick the bigger name.

That’s the gap. He’s the second-best arm by 2.4 points, but I expect him to be owned like the fifth. If you fade the Burnes and Wacha crowd, you get the better pitcher for less money. They need to let Jax throw and get some pitches in as he heads into the playoffs here.

Davis Martin (CWS) $6,300 vs. COL

Martin sims for 13.3 DK with a 20.54 ceiling and a +1.46 Diff, and the White Sox win 54.4%. He’s within half a point of Perkins, but he won’t draw anything close to Perkins’ attention. He also pairs cleanly with a White Sox stack. You know it’s the last game of the season when I’m saying “pitch Davis Martin,” but it’s against the Rockies. That lineup is atrocious, and at his price point versus projection, he’s not going to have anybody on him. This is the kind of disgusting play that wins you a tournament.

Verdict: GPP leverage, the same projection as the chalk value arm with a small share of the ownership.

The Fade

Corbin Burnes (ARI) $9,200 vs. SD

The sim projects Burnes for 4.14 innings, the shortest outing of any starter. His 16.73 ceiling is the lowest on the slate and his 11.34 DK ranks tenth. People will play him because of the name. Wacha at $9,400 is the same story at 11.89. Remember, Burnes is just working his way back from that injury. He’s priced like he’s been top-tier. Burnes: hard pass.

Verdict: Fade, the field is there on name value and the sim doesn’t back it up.

Stacks

Seattle Mariners, 6.92 sim runs

This is the best offense on the slate by a run and a half, and Seattle’s hitters are cheap. The leverage ratio says eat it, but be picky about which bats. I expect ownership to pile onto Raleigh and Julio. Meanwhile Lazaro Montes bats eighth and sims for 10.42 with a 23.1 ceiling, which beats Julio’s 9.55. Cole Young (+1.90 Diff) and Josh Naylor at the bottom of the order get the same runs at a fraction of the ownership.

• Cal Raleigh, C, LU4, $4,900, chalk

• Randy Arozarena, OF, LU2, $5,500, popular

• Julio Rodriguez, OF, LU5, $4,500, chalk

• Dominic Canzone, OF, LU3, $4,100, moderate

• J.P. Crawford, SS, LU1, $3,500, moderate

• Lazaro Montes, OF, LU8, $3,600, low

• Josh Naylor, 1B, LU6, $3,800, low

• Cole Young, 2B, LU7, $3,300, low

Tag: Chalk worth eating, but build it from the bottom of the order. Skip the bring-back. The over 9.5 is a coin flip at 50.8%, and Seattle alone accounts for almost all of it.

Houston Astros, 5.44 sim runs

This game is the best over on the slate (58.2% over 9.5, 53.2% over 10). Every lineup that uses Perkins as its salary saver is betting against these bats. So if Perkins gets hit hard, you gain twice: your Astros score and the field’s cheap arm fails. Yordan will be popular, but the rest of this lineup should go overlooked. Remember, a lot of people are going to throw Perkins, so this is also valuable to be on the other side with the bats.

• Yordan Alvarez, OF, LU2, $6,600, popular

• Jeremy Pena, SS, LU1, $5,400, low

• Isaac Paredes, 3B, LU3, $4,800, low

• Jose Altuve, 2B, LU4, $4,600, low

• Yainer Diaz, C, LU5, $4,300, low

• Cam Smith, OF, LU8, $4,000, low

Tag: True leverage. The over percentage supports a bring-back, so add Lawrence Butler ($4,400, 9.31) or Carlos Cortes ($3,100, +1.22 Diff).

Chicago White Sox, 5.33 sim runs

Randal Grichuk has the biggest Diff on the slate (+3.29), and Tommy Pham (+1.92), Murakami (+1.22) and Brenton Doyle (+1.18) are all beating their projections against Jose Quintana. A six-man version costs about $24,600, and I expect low ownership across the board. The over 9.5 sits at 53.4%. We found the key to get Munetaka going. They just got to let him drink more. Comes back after getting hammered in one of the best clips of all time, screaming, “I am Japaneseeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,” and goes yard twice. Love to see it as they head into the playoffs.

• Randal Grichuk, OF, LU3, $3,700, low

• Munetaka Murakami, 1B, LU4, $5,200, moderate

• Miguel Vargas, 3B, LU1, $5,700, low

• Tommy Pham, OF, LU2, $2,700, low

• Chase Meidroth, 2B, LU5, $4,300, low

• Brenton Doyle, OF, LU6, $3,000, low

Tag: True leverage. For a bring-back, Jake McCarthy ($5,000, 9.21) or Cole Carrigg ($4,700, 9.15) works.

Bats by Position

Catcher

Raleigh’s 11.4 sim is the second-best bat on the slate, and he’s a lock for cash. In GPPs, Shea Langeliers sims for 9.57 in the best game, and I expect him to be owned at a fraction of Raleigh.

Cash: Cal Raleigh ($4,900)

GPP: Shea Langeliers ($5,500, low owned)

First Base

Naylor gives you 9.39 at $3,800 from the Seattle lineup, which is the best median per dollar at the position. Murakami is almost the same projection at 9.32. He’s more expensive, but he comes with a White Sox stack the field is ignoring.

Cash: Josh Naylor ($3,800)

GPP: Munetaka Murakami ($5,200, moderate)

Second Base

Ketel Marte’s 9.83 is the top median at second base. Cole Young sims for 9.13 at $3,300 with a +1.90 Diff. He’s the cheap way into the Seattle chalk, and the field’s attention will be on the bigger names at the top of that lineup.

Cash: Ketel Marte ($4,700)

GPP: Cole Young ($3,300, low owned)

Third Base

Jose Ramirez (9.71) edges Junior Caminero (9.62) and costs $1,000 less. Caminero is also hitting in a wind-in park. Miguel Vargas leads off in the White Sox stack at +0.94.

Cash: Jose Ramirez ($5,100)

GPP: Miguel Vargas ($5,700, low owned)

Shortstop

J.P. Crawford leads off for the best offense on the slate at $3,500 and sims for 9.70, which is the easy call. Bobby Witt Jr. at $6,400 has a -1.28 Diff, and his name will pull ownership his projection doesn’t deserve. Jeremy Pena leads off in the best game on the slate.

Cash: J.P. Crawford ($3,500)

GPP: Jeremy Pena ($5,400, low owned)

Outfield

Yordan’s 11.91 is the best median on the slate. Montes and Grichuk both clear 10.4 for under $3,700, so they’re strong in cash as well as GPPs. For GPP pivots, Canzone (10.03) is the Seattle bat the field forgets about, Cam Smith has a +1.12 Diff batting eighth, and Pham at $2,700 frees up salary.

Cash: Yordan Alvarez ($6,600), Lazaro Montes ($3,600), Randal Grichuk ($3,700)

GPP: Dominic Canzone ($4,100, moderate), Cam Smith ($4,000, low), Tommy Pham ($2,700, low)

The Leverage Board

1. Randal Grichuk, +3.29 Diff, 10.68 sim, low owned. That’s the biggest gap on the slate. People see a $3,700 veteran and keep scrolling, but the sim has him as the third-best bat.

2. Griffin Jax, 16.25 sim, low to moderate owned. He’s the second-best arm, and the field will give his price range to Burnes and Wacha on name .

3. Lazaro Montes, 10.42 sim, 23.1 ceiling, low owned. Batting eighth hides him. His ceiling beats every Seattle bat except Raleigh’s. If you read anything I wrote this year, you know I love Montes, this kid.

4. The Houston lineup, 5.44 runs, low owned outside Yordan. Nobody noticed that the chalk value arm is pitching in the slate’s best run environment.

5. Tommy Pham, +1.92 Diff at $2,700, low owned. He’s a min-price bat hitting second in a 5.33 lineup. This is my ode to Jon on my last write up of the season. How can I not say that Tommy Pham is not leverage?

6. Nathaniel Lowe, +1.76 Diff at $2,800, low owned. He bats sixth for Cleveland, so nobody’s looking.

The Builds

Cash Build

This build goes for the highest median and ignores ownership. Anderson plus Jax costs $16,300, which leaves $33,700 for hitters, or $4,212 per bat. That’s tighter than the Perkins build, but Jax’s extra 2.4 points are worth more than the $3,400 Perkins would save.

• SP: Kade Anderson, SEA, $7,700 (7,700)

• SP: Griffin Jax, TB, $8,600 (16,300)

• C: Cal Raleigh, SEA, $4,900 (21,200)

• 1B: Nathaniel Lowe, CLE, $2,800 (24,000)

• 2B: Cole Young, SEA, $3,300 (27,300)

• 3B: Jose Ramirez, CLE, $5,100 (32,400)

• SS: J.P. Crawford, SEA, $3,500 (35,900)

• OF: Yordan Alvarez, HOU, $6,600 (42,500)

• OF: Lazaro Montes, SEA, $3,600 (46,100)

• OF: Randal Grichuk, CWS, $3,700 (49,800)

Total: $49,800 of $50,000

GPP Build

This lineup wins if Houston hits Perkins hard, the game clears 10 runs, and Anderson does what the sim expects. The deviation from the obvious build is skipping Perkins for Davis Martin and stacking against the field’s value arm. That way the build gains on every lineup that uses Perkins if he struggles.

Anderson plus Martin costs $14,000, which leaves $36,000 for hitters, or $4,500 per bat.

• SP: Kade Anderson, SEA, $7,700 (7,700)

• SP: Davis Martin, CWS, $6,300 (14,000)

• C: Yainer Diaz, HOU, $4,300 (18,300)

• 1B: Josh Naylor, SEA, $3,800 (22,100)

• 2B: Jose Altuve, HOU, $4,600 (26,700)

• 3B: Isaac Paredes, HOU, $4,800 (31,500)

• SS: J.P. Crawford, SEA, $3,500 (35,000)

• OF: Yordan Alvarez, HOU, $6,600 (41,600)

• OF: Cam Smith, HOU, $4,000 (45,600)

• OF: Lawrence Butler, ATH, $4,400 (50,000)

Total: $50,000 of $50,000

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Sorry, boys and girls, nothing of value today. I don’t want to bet just to bet. I’ll never do that. Hopefully, we have some stuff tomorrow, and that’ll be it for the regular season. I will be throwing out to everyone some plays for the playoffs. I actually think the playoffs are one of the best things to bet because you get guys performing at their peak. There’ll still be more coming this season.

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Last regular season slate of the year for me. Sad to see it come to an end. But we’ll be hitting it hard for the first few days in the postseason when we have some four-game slates.

Let’s crush this one and finish on a high note.

Weather

Looks all clear on the main slate.

Game Data

Implications:

• Dodgers vs. Yunior Marte: 5.95 implied

• White Sox vs. Sugano: 5.60 implied (in Chicago)

• Astros vs. Lopez: 5.47 implied (in Sacramento)

• Brewers vs. McGreevy: 5.20 implied

Two cheaper offenses with implications above their season average:

• Blue Jays vs. Nick Lodolo

• Guardians vs. Noah Cameron

The White Sox, Guardians, and Astros are playing very important games, so maybe that’s a boost to players on those teams. The Dodgers have gotten healthy and are trying to gather some steam for the playoffs, we’ve seen them treating these games as very important, so I wouldn’t be worried about any limitations this weekend.

Pitchers

Lots of options on the board tonight.

Tarik Skubal ($11,000) has 21 strikeouts in his last two starts. He threw 99 and 91 pitches in those outings. The Dodgers are three games behind the Brewers for the #1 seed, but they’ve locked in a bye. So they won’t need Skubal until next Saturday. That doesn’t mean they won’t consider taking it easy, but it’s not a situation where they need to limit him so he can take the ball at full strength again in the middle of next week. It’s a great matchup and they haven’t eased off of him yet, so I think it’s a good play. BUT, it doesn’t take much doubt to get us off of an $11K pitcher. It’s possible they limit him to 75-80 pitches here just to be safe.

Reid Detmers ($9,400) goes to Seattle to finish up his breakout year. He threw 81 pitches last time, and he was pitching fine from what I can see. So this is quite likely a shorter outing for him. He’s their ace for next year and this game means nothing.

Gavin Williams ($9,700) is pitching in an important game as the Guardians try to win the division. They have just an 83-76 record, but that will be good enough to get a first-round bye if they win the division, since the winner of the AL West will come in with 82 wins maximum. What they wouldn’t love to see is Gavin throw a bunch of pitches and not be ready for a Wild Card game one if they don’t win the division. But since they have a one-game lead, my guess is they’re putting everything into winning this game to try to get that bye week so they can get have Williams on full rest. So yeah, I’d play Gavin Williams.

Jacob deGrom ($9,700) is another ace pitcher with no limitations here. The Rangers can win the division, and they’ll want to ride him there tonight.

Joe Ryan ($9,700) is on the other side of that one, and he threw 99 pitches last time, so they haven’t been showing signs of shutting him down early.

Hunter Brown ($8,900) is in Sacramento, which is not a good spot to be, but it’s a super important game and he’s been pitching pretty well lately.

I can’t believe how complicated this pitching slate is, I thought we’d have a pretty easy weekend. But for DFS purposes, I think it’s best to just stick to the studs who are in important games. So my list would be:

1. Gavin Williams $9,700 vs. KC

2. Jacob deGrom $9,700 vs. MIN

3. Tarik Skubal $11,000 vs. SF

4. Hunter Brown $8,900 vs. ATH

Other options I’d play if I’m expanding the pool:

• Joe Ryan $9,700 vs. TEX

• Sean Burke $8,500 vs. COL

• Jose Soriano $8,000 vs. CIN

The Reid Detmers fade is alarming, because he’s been so good, and we don’t know for sure that he’ll be limited in this one. But I think it’s too likely that he goes five innings and out to make that play at $9400.

Building for a cash lineup, I think I’m locking in Gavin Williams and Jacob deGrom to start with.

Hitters

We have a ton of hitters popping hugely in the projections. Here are the top projections above a 2x value, you usually don’t see this many.

1. Munetaka Murakami $4,800: 10.1 points

2. Garrett Mitchell $4,000: 9.5 points

3. Kyle Teel $3,500: 9.17 points

4. Drake Baldwin $4,500: 9.1 points

5. Sam Antonacci $4,300: 9.1 points

6. Heriberto Hernandez $4,000: 8.99 points

There are two catchers on that that, so you can’t play them both.

Some of the biggest values that project above seven points:

1. Carlos Jorge $2,500

2. Pavin Smith $2,300

3. Moises Ballesteros $3,000

4. Charles McAdoo $2,800

5. Kyle Teel $3,500

6. Lars Nootbaar $3,100

7. Jakob Marsee $3,200

8. Cooper Pratt $3,100

9. Kyle Stowers $3,500

10. Luis Lara $3,300

I put those five in bold because I think they’re actually good hitters and not just guys who are projecting well because of the price.

It looks like a lot of White Sox are in play on this Friday night. My guys at RPS will be stiff in the waist area for this spot.

Offenses I’m really focused on when looking at the full picture:

1. White Sox vs. Sugano

2. Astros vs. Jacob Lopez

3. Brewers vs. McGreevy

4. Marlins vs. Grant Holmes

5. D’Backs vs. Casey Mize

Casey Mize gave up a .273 xwOBA with the Tigers. Something has gone horribly wrong since he’s gone to the Padres, though. He’s given up a .342 xwOBA and ten homers with a pathetic 13% K% and 9% BB%. One of the worst pitchers in the league right now, and the Diamondbacks probably can’t lose again if they want any chance of making the playoffs.

I’ve already narrowed it down pretty well.

Pitchers:

1. Gavin Williams $9,700 vs. KC

2. Jacob deGrom $9,700 vs. MIN

3. Tarik Skubal $11,000 vs. SF

4. Hunter Brown $8,900 vs. ATH

Offenses:

1. White Sox vs. Sugano

2. Astros vs. Jacob Lopez

3. Brewers vs. McGreevy

4. Marlins vs. Grant Holmes

5. D’Backs vs. Casey Mize

But let’s look at each position a bit closer to see what other plays stick out.

CATCHERS

Kyle Teel $3,500

Clearly the best play on the slate. 8.4-point projection at $3,500 in one of the best matchups of the night

Shea Langeliers $5,500

Not quite an ideal spot with Hunter Brown on the hill. But the upside for Langeliers at home is unmatched.

Yainer Diaz $4,000

The Astros pop in Sacramento. Against Lopez, we want more of the righties, and that’s Yainer. Diaz has suddenly shown a pretty good season line with a .763 OPS. He’s hit .287/.326/.425 against lefties, and this is the best park imagineable for him.

Gabriel Moreno $4,200

Moreno has an .871 OPS this year with 16 bombs. It’s been a career year for him, and he gets the juicy spot with the current form of Casey Mize.

FIRST BASE

Munetaka Murakami $4,800

Kyle Stowers $3,500

Up to a .459 SLG this year with a 12.8% Brl%. He’s hit .246/.331/.481 against righties this year with 19 bombs, so this is very cheap for a guy with this much power against Grant Holmes.

Christian Walker $4,100

Jake Bauers $4,500

.880 OPS this year and a great spot vs. McGreevy.

SECOND BASE

Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,200

Pfaadt can handle righties, and this is expensive for Tatis when we have other offenses we like better, but Tatis has been right there with PCA for being the best fantasy point scorer in the league over the last few months.

Jose Altuve $4,500

Great spot for his lack of bat speed to turn into a cheap homer, and the Astros should score runs here.

Ketel Marte $4,600

THIRD BASE

Isaac Paredes $4,700

Jose Ramirez $5,100

Faces the lefty Cameron, and he has done most of his slugging in these spots. .475 SLG as a right-handed batter, .329 as a lefty.

Miguel Vargas $5,400

He’s expensive, and the projections haven’t really bought into him this year, but he’s the best fantasy point scorer on the White Sox, so he’s an instrumental part of those stacks.

Colson Montgomery $3,900

I could understand leaving him off. He’s hitting .200/.283/.410 this year, and has just a .317 SLG in the second half. Looks pretty busted.

Javier Sanoja $3,300

Guy has been shockingly good in the second half, and remains very cheap here on an offense we like.

SHORTSTOP

Corey Seager $3,400

So, so cheap for Seager.

Jeremy Pena $5,200

If Seager’s price wasn’t so ridiculous, Pena would be the top play by far. He probably still is as a lead-off man in Sac town.

Elly De La Cruz $5,900

If you just want to play the hot bats, Elly is that guy. But the matchup with Soriano and the price has me taking the $700 discount down to Pena.

Cooper Pratt $3,100

Pratt’s hitting .282/.346/.368 this year. Not a ton of power, but plenty of base knoks and steals, and the Brewers are in a great spot as they try to lock down this #1 seed with one more win.

OUTFIELD

Yordan Alvarez $6,500

Lawrence Butler $4,200

Henry Bolte $4,800

Garrett Mitchell $4,000

Jackson Chourio $6,000

Jackson Merrill $4,700

Lars Nootbaar $3,100

Jakob Marsee $3,200

Sam Antonacci $4,300

Heriberto Hernandez $4,000

Here’s how the optimizer plays our Astros + White Sox with deGrom + Williams.

It’s tough to get the bats you want spending $19,400 at pitcher. It’s a good night to play 20 tourney lineups with the shortened player pool I’ve established and let it rip.

The raw optimal projected lineup with no interventions:

SP Bryce Miller
SP Tarik Skubal
C Yainer Diaz
1B Pavin Smith
2B Jose Altuve
3B Isaac Paredes
SS Corey Seager
OF Shohei Ohtani
OF Lars Nootbaar
OF Brandon Nimmo

But I’d rather do some manual intervention tonight. I’m trying to stick to the pitchers I know will have a full pitch count. Good luck out there!

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All right, boys and girls, they have completely sucked the value out of PCA now for stolen bases. After he didn’t get it last night, not work Chasey, not going to make a ton of money on it. It’s just something the bucks are just not willing to put at risk. Essentially, if you hit it on the right day, you’re profitable. If you’re not, you’re going to have a tough time. Today we got a couple K prop spots I like. That’s about it. Being really careful here the last few days.

Tyler Mahle gets to face the Reds, the number one-rated team versus right-handed pitching. Brian Woo gets to face the Angels, the number two-rated K-rated team versus right-handed pitching. In his last 10 starts, Mahle has been great. He’s putting up a 25% WHIP percentage and a 21% put-away rate. Woo is putting up a 31% whiff rate, 28% K rate, and 23% put-away rate for his right-hand bats. It's less than 10 outings, but we're going to parlay it. I don't like the value on either standalone, but together we're almost doubling our units, and that's going to be our spot for today.

Mahle 6+K and Woo 7+k +192 1u DK

Again, last few days of the season here. I’m not going to push the card on value when there’s too much at risk if we do.

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The Run Environment

The sim’s top team totals are the Angels (6.69), Mariners (6.40), White Sox (6.37) and Dodgers (6.25), followed by the Cubs (5.82), Diamondbacks (5.59), Mets (5.54) and Rockies (5.46). LAA-ATH (11.17) and ARI-COL (11.05) are the top games. CIN-ATL (7.44) and TB-NYY (7.45) are the pitching games, and the Reds’ 2.81 is the lowest number on the board.

What we have to watch out for now is all the substitutions: pitchers getting pulled, hitters getting pulled. It’s the last week of the season. What we’re looking for is guys like yesterday: Jones to go out and throw a big game, Wheeler to go out and throw a big game. We got to really condense our pool because otherwise you’re going to end up getting wrecked. I.e., look at all the teams that used just relievers yesterday, and then you have things like the horrible Angels bullpen that blew a lead of 200 million runs last night.

So here is the thing: this week, we can project all we want, and all we really care about is projected playing time, correctly. Because, this last week of the season, if you get that right (especially with pitching), you’re always going to have massive leverage in whatever slate you’re playing, whether single entry, 3 max, or GPP. One of the things I do this week is I’ll be hawking X to try to get better leverage on playing time. If I see things adjusting accordingly, also having an advantage to a late swap of these slates is a big deal because a lot of people aren’t going to take advantage of it, and it matters this time of year. I’m not going to put all the screenshots in because the projections are going to show what it looks like if they run full games, and that’s just not reality here. We’re trying to find out who’s going to have the correct playing time.

Weather

No real weather issues on the main slate today, thankfully.

Pitching

The Stud…MAYBE

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All right, we're in the dog days of the last week of the season. It's got to be a lot of really weird stuff going on. These are the two spots I really like on the hit, earn, run, walk page:
1. Dustin May: 35% EV, he projects 2.83 over.
2. Mackenzie Core: projecting over 3 over his number.
I love when it gets around 3. I think that's when we tend to get a lot of value. We're going to take advantage of two pitchers that I think are in a spot. We're going to do a half inning on Gore because I don't like his juice.

Dustin May O 6.5 H.BB.ER -133 1u
MacKenzie Gore O 6.5 H.BB.ER -172 .5u

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The MLB DFS season is coming to a close, but I’d like to finish it with a few wins. It’s our final Tuesday slate of the year. There will be at least a couple four-game playoff slates, which are the greatest. So we’ll be hitting those hard, but we’re finishing up this week with the normal DFS previews.

Weather

MLB can’t really afford PPDs at this point in the season, so it takes an extreme circumstance for that to happen. The TOR/BAL game has some rain, but that’s not on the main slate anyways, so we’re in the clear here.

Game Info

Top spot: D’Backs vs. Kyle Freeland

Arizona goes into Coors, and they need the wins. It’s a 7.3-run implication, obviously the top spot on the board. Freeland hasn’t been a total can this year, but has given up 27 bombs on just an 18% K%.

Next best: Braves vs. Brandon Williamson

It’s not in Cincy, but Williamson is a lefty that can be hit hard. He has a 16% K% in limited MLB time with a 29% FB% and a .378 xwOBA against. They’re the only other team above a five-run implication, and they’re almost at six.

The rest:

• Angels vs. Brady Basso

  • The Angels can’t hit, and Basso has held his own in the Majors so far (3.93 JA SIERA, .304 xwOBA). But there should be some very cheap Angels against this lefty.

• Athletics vs. Yusei Kikuchi

  • The Athletics are back at home, and that’s a good spot against Kikuchi who can give up some homers. Kikuchi has a 12% K-BB% in limited time this year with a .339 xwOBA and seven homers given up (six to righties). You can fire up the cheap Athletics righties.

• Rangers vs. Sean Manaea

  • Low ownership projection here, and Manaea has been giving up a bunch of hits and runs lately. He’s someone who can go out there and get really trucked, so we like Texas tonight.

• Mariners vs. Cristian Javier

  • Pretty decent implication here and low ownership, but I don’t want to pick on Javier and all of the whiffs and strikeouts he’s been getting.

No other team is positive in implication minus average. So I’d stick to those offenses for stacking purposes tonight. But here are other spots the projections kinda like:

• Twins vs. Anthony Molina

• Mets vs. MacKenzie Gore

• Dodgers vs. Michael King

Pitchers

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We’re probably going to be real light on bets this week, but playing time and who’s throwing and who’s not throwing. A couple of spots are light today:

1. River Ryan got pulled up for Detroit. I think it’s a middle-of-the-pack matchup, but his line is only 2.5. There’s a reason he was part of the Skubal deal. He’s got an electric arm. We know what he’s gone through, and I think it’s value at 2.5 for almost even money. He’s only going to get a couple innings. He’s going to get 40 or 50 pitches, but we have the upside here.
   
   River Ryan DET O 2.5K -107 1u DK

2. The Tigers are going to follow up with Ryan today with Keider Montero, and this is a really good spot for Daylen Lile. He’s given up a 33% fly ball rate and a 21% pull error percentage, and we’re getting Lile at almost 500 today for a yard. He’s one of the good projections.

Daylen Lile WAS HR +490 .5u DK

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Yesterday, I was hoping Judge wasn’t going to go on the IR, but he’s done for the year. That being said, we hit Ks now, and we got a Montez Homer, so we had another nice, profitable day. We’re going to take a spot here that I think is actually pretty grossly mispriced for a little ladder fun on a Saturday.

I think Jobe’s projection is just way too low today, and he gets to face the White Sox, who have just turned into a K machine these last couple months. Job, in his last three starts, is starting to show us why he is the prospect he is. He’s put up a 26% whiff rate, a 27.9 K rate, a 27% put-away rate, and a 12.5% swinging strike percentage. It’s even better versus right-handed batters, and the Sox are the number three team in the league now for strikeouts versus right-handed pitching. This is just too good to pass on when we can get his 4.5 there, and we’re going to ladder them up a little bit.

Jackson Jobe DET O 4.5 K -118 1u DK and O 5.5k +170 1u and O 6.5k +378 .5u

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The Run Environment

It’s time to enjoy one of the final Saturdays of the season. Next Saturday is going to be weird for DFS. It always is that last weekend, so this is really our last official main slate Saturday. Mariners at Rockies runs at 10.94 total runs with Seattle at 6.58, the biggest team total on the slate by more than a run. Braves at Astros is next at 10.76, then Blue Jays at Rangers (10.27), Nationals at Cardinals (10.22), and Marlins at Padres (9.69). Yankees at Diamondbacks sits at 8.93, Twins at Angels at 7.94, and Giants at Dodgers is the dead zone at 7.28 with San Francisco projected for 1.99 runs.

Team totals after Seattle: Atlanta 5.53, Washington 5.45, Texas 5.31, Los Angeles 5.29, San Diego 5.25, Houston 5.23, New York 5.07.

Here’s the field read. Ownership on this slate is oddly flat. No hitter clears 18% yet, and the money concentrates on exactly three names, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford, all Seattle. I like the bottom half of Sea. Meanwhile Atlanta owns the second-best over 7.5 rate on the slate at 72.4% and not one Brave is above 9% but I expect that to rise.

Weather

Pitching

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All right, boys and girls, Tyler Glassnow on the mound today. His line is at 6.5 for hits, walks, and earned runs. You can see from the model we project him at 3.16. That’s just a very big delta that, as you can see, EVs it to 30% and gives me that juice I want to pay. The reason I’m not going there with Burns or Lee is they’re totally capping their innings, and I don’t trust how long either manager is going to let either of those guys through.

Tyler Glasnow LAD O 6.5 H.BB.ER -147 1u

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The second to last Friday night of regular season baseball! Giant 13-game slate to get into it.

Weather

It looks all clear for tonight. Just one note on the SEA/COL game:

YELLOW - Scattered downpours around early, maybe they need to late start or get delayed... but I do think they get a game in.

They never seem to PPD in Colorado, so nothing to worry about there - you aren’t playing the pitchers, obviously, so a delay is no problem.

Meaningful Games

Slight upgrade to games that really matter. Teams that are dead in the water could opt for some early substitions.

• Cubs at Reds: Cubs can’t win the division but want to hold onto the top wild card spot so they can host their wild card round matchup

• Brewers at Orioles: Brewers are two games up on the Dodgers for the #1 seed.

• Athletics vs. Guardians: Dead heat in the NL Central between the Guardians and White Sox

• Tigers vs. White Sox: Dead heat in the NL Central between the Guardians and White Sox

• Red Sox vs. Rays: Rays have a firm hold on the division but want to make sure. The Red Sox look pretty much locked into the #2 wild card spot, but the game certainly still matters

• Phillies vs. Mets: Phillies are tied for the #1 Wild Card spot with the Cubs and four games ahead of the D’Backs to stay in the playoffs.

• Blue Jays vs. Rangers: Blue Jays still heave Wild Card hope, two games back.

• Braves vs. Astros: Astros hold a one-game lead in the AL West, Braves have a four-game lead on the Phillies for the division.

• Yankees vs. DBacks: Yankees want to hold on to the first wild card spot, Diamondbacks are still in a Wild Card race

• Marlins vs. Padres: Padres trying to hold onto a WC spot

• Giants vs. Dodgers: Dodgers clinched the division yesterday and might be a little hungover here, but they want to chase down the Brewers for the #1 seed.

I guess it would have been easier to do a list of games that don’t matter… those would be:

• Nationals vs. Cardinals

• Twins vs. Angels

• Mariners vs. Rockies

• Royals vs. Pirates

Game Data

The 5+ implied run club:

• Mariners vs. Gabriel Hughes

• Dodgers vs. SF Bullpen

• Guardians vs. Mason Barnett (in Cleveland)

• Padres vs. Tyler Phillips

• Brewers vs. Cade Povich

The Mariners will be popular for good reason. Coors is a feast spot, with the Rockies' rotation being in horrible shape.

The Dodgers are at home against the Giants, so that’s nice. But there might be that little “hangover”, even if we don’t mean that literally, after their division win party yesterday.

Cleveland is in a great spot against Barnett and the Athletics bullpen. It’s a very, very important series for Cleveland, so we’ll like using some of those bats.

The Padres also get a soft matchup with Tyler Phillips, but it’s not a great park situation playing in Petco.

I’ll also throw in the Twins vs. Grayson Rodriguez. They’re a rough offense right now and Grayson has had some positive signs, but we like getting left-handed hitters in there against Grayson.

So my preferred stacks:

• Mariners

• Guardians

• Twins

Pitchers

It’s a very surprising projection on Connor Prielipp. The Angels boost pitchers like crazy, they’ve gotta be the worst lineup in the league numbers-wise, and Prielipp has held his own in the Majors. He has a 24% K% this year with an 8.2% BB% and a 1.1 HR/9. It’s been pretty good. What’s gone wrong is a high HR/FB (17%) and a decent low strand rate. It could be a smash for Prielipp, he’s definitely the top play of the night price-wise.

Dylan Cease ($11,300) still has a reason to go out there and try to shove again. The Blue Jays need to win now, and they certainly don’t want to give away one of 2-3 starts they have remaining from Cease. He does have two starts in his last five with five walks. In those last five, he has a 2.20 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, a 30.4% K%, but an 11.3% BB%. That’s just to say that he’s still been great, but the walk rate trending up makes you a little hesitant about the $11,300 tag.

We also have Tyler Glasnow ($10,500) against the Giants. 90+ pitches in his last two and a big 32% K% this year with a solid-enough 8.3% BB%. Great play for Glasnow, but the injury and workload stuff is always sort of in the back of your mind with him.

The other guys that are very in play:

• Ian Seymour ($8,700) vs. BOS: Seymour has been stunningly good “under the hood” lately. 32.3% K%, 3.2% BB% in his last seven starts. That’s an insane 29% K-BB%. But he’s given up 11 homers in these last seven for a 2.25 HR/9. So it’s boom-or-bust, kinda. But you have to like a dude with this many strikeouts recently at $8,700.

• Dustin May ($7,500) vs. BAL: Fantastic matchup for May. He is up-and-down and never super trustworthy, but I’m buying in on him. He’s very good at limiting homers, and that’s really the only thing this Orioles lineup offers. He’s a favorite play of mine tonight; this cutter is just too sick, and the Brewers know what they’re doing with the dude.

• Nick Pivetta ($8,800) vs. MIA: Soft opponent for Pivetta, but just 63 and 69 pitches in his first two coming back from that April injury, and eight whiffs in those two outings. I don’t think I see the reason to go to him with a 75-pitch expectation and other solid options on the board.

• Cade Cavalli ($9,300) vs. STL: Cavalli has been one of the best in the league. The model doesn’t love it (16.2 points) at the price, but the Cardinals aren’t a super-imposing lineup all things considered. Wetherholt is just getting healthy again and hasn’t hit well, and Jordan Walker can be handled by a good righty like Cavalli. Solid tourney option there but not a projection-based cash play.

Other deeper tourney shots:

• Andrew Painter $5,700 vs. NYM: Just a silly price for Painter. He’s given up 16 hits, six runs, and six walks in his last two, so that’s a big concern. But there’s been some awesome outings and he had a streak of 6+ strikeout start prior to last time. So I like that play a lot for some 3-4x price ceiling.

• David Sandlin $6,300 vs. DET: Interesting-ish arm here. Just 30.1 MLB innings this year and a 5.64 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP, but a 23% K% and 9.5% BB%. He’s not quite a $6K pitcher, I don’t think. I don’t really want to play him, but the projections like him for the price.

CASH: CEASE + PRIELIPP
TOURNEY: PRIELIPP, MAY, SEYMOUR, GLASNOW, CAVALLI

Hitters

The plays of the day by the projections are here. These are the highest projections above a 1.9x value.

• Jose Ramirez (3B) $5,100

• Kody Clemsn (2B) $4,400

• Will Smith (C) $4,000

• Luke Keaschall (OF) $4,200

• J.P. Crawford (SS) $3,900

• Chase DeLauter (OF) $4,000

• Ketel Marte (2B) $4,200

• Carson Benge (OF) $4,300

• Dominic Canzone (OF) $4,500

• A.J. Ewing (OF) $3,800

• Josh Naylor (1B) $4,300

• Daylen Lile (OF) $4,200

The top values above a seven-point projection:

• Angel Genao (2B/3B) $2,700

• Lars Nootbaar (OF) $2,700

• Amed Rosario (2B/3B) $2,600

• Dustin Harris (OF) $2,900

• Paul Goldschmidt (1B) $3,100

• Miguel Rojas (2B) $2,900

• Luis Lara (OF) $3,400

• Walker Jenkins (OF) $3,200

• Heliot Ramos (OF) $3,400

• Francisco Alvarez (C) $3,100

• Cooper Pratt (SS) $3,200

So your top plays by position:

• Catcher

  • Cal Raleigh $5,600

  • Will Smith $4,000

  • William Contreras $4,600

• First Base

  • Paul Goldschmidt $3,100

  • Josh Naylor $4,300

  • Kyle Schwarber $5,700

  • Matt Olson $4,500

• Second Base

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,500

  • Ketel Marte $4,200

  • Hao-Yu Lee $3,300

  • Kody Clemens $4,400

  • Angel Genao $2,700

• Shortstop

  • JP Crawford $3,900

  • Kevin McGonigle $5,200

  • Mookie Betts $5,100

  • Trea Turner $4,200

  • Francisco Lindor $4,800

  • Corey Seager $4,000

  • Zach Neto $4,700

• Outfield

  • Julio Rodriguez $5,000

  • Randy Arozarena $5,000

  • Jackson Chourio $5,800

  • Lars Nootbaar $2,700

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,500

  • Juan Soto $6,300

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. $5,500

  • Yordan Alvarez $6,000

  • Corbin Carroll $4,700

  • Jo Adell $3,600

  • Dom Canzone $4,500

  • Luke Keaschall $4,200

  • Tommy Pham $2,000

  • Scott Bandura $2,100

  • Jahmai Jones $2,400

Optimal Lineup

Projected optimal:

SP Glasnow
SP Prielipp
C Will Smith
1B Paul Goldschmidt
2B Cole Young
3B Hao-Yu Le
SS JP Crawford
OF Julio Rodriguez
OF Randy Arozarena
OF Lars Nootbaar

Tourney Lineup

It’s a Cleveland stack fading the Prielipp ownership and going to Cease.

SP Dylan Cease
SP Dustin May
C Patrick Bailey
1B Josh Naylor
2B Angel Genao
3B Jose Ramirez
SS J.P. Crawford
OF Jo Adell
OF Chase DeLauter
OF Julio Rodriguez

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