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We made it through Week 5 unscathed! All three options won- Texans, Bengals, and Jaguars- so I’ll pat myself on the back.

Several solid options are available this week. The pools are getting to be slim pickings now. It’ll be more important to fade the chalk when pools narrow to a more concentrated group.

Quick Thoughts

Biggest spread: Rams (-12.5) vs Cardinals. Still the highest win probability, but the divisional + short-week + chalk combo makes it less automatic than the raw number suggests.

Best Week 6 Burn: 49ers vs Commanders. Solid number, home, undefeated, lower ownership, not divisional.

Interesting Options: Colts vs Titans or Patriots vs Jets if you want to preserve both the Rams and 49ers. Both are home favorites in the mid-70s win % and have less future value.

Fade: Ravens (Lamar out, road division, only -3), Chiefs if you’re specifically wary of the division game, London, and the coin-flip games.

Ownership will largely be on the Rams (30-40%), Colts (15-25%), Patriots (15-20%), and the rest of the field around 10% or less, including the 49ers and Chiefs.

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I have version one of the detailed projections ready for people to test out. They’re in the app. So if you already have that access and know how to get in there, go to the “Betting Projections” tab and start clicking around. They’re brand new, and the accuracy testing I did was all retroactive. But the tests, to me, looked pretty good. I would appreciate anybody going in there and logging some data and doing whatever tests you’d normally do, if that’s the kind of thing you do. I’ll work them in through this post.

Game Environment

After a banger Monday night game, we get an ugly one for Thursday night. Two really good defenses, only one good offense, and even that good offense on the Seattle side is a little suspicious.

The Seattle defense has put the clamps on. Here’s where the defenses line up, I even drew some circles myself to help you out:

Seattle hasn’t allowed much of anything either on the ground and through the air. Denver has been worse than last year, and is still missing Patrick Surtain tonight. The game being in Denver is beneficial to the Broncos, but it’s fair to say that the Seahawks are the better team on both sides of the ball.

Broncos Side

QUARTERBACK

I’ve got this new NFL data viewer app. You’ll see some screenshots from it. I’m not sure what to do with it other than just keep it for myself.

Bo Nix has really struggled. Remember that he got really hot at the end of the 2024 season and looked like a breakout star in the league. But last year was nothing special, and now he has averaged 5.74 yards per attempt with a negative EPA this year.

The stat that most stands out to me is his 5.4-yard ADoT. That’s the lowest in the league.

Lowest Average Depth of Pass Attempt

1. Bo Nix 5.2

2. Jalon Daniels 6.0

3. Michael Penix 6.3

4. Kyler Murray 6.3

5. Sam Darnold 6.7

So the QB on the other side is here as well, but 5.2 is way below everybody else. Sutton’s at an 11-yard ADoT; Waddle’s at 9.4. So it’s not that their primary receivers can’t get open down the field; it’s that Nix has been opting into a bunch of dump-offs.

Seattle’s defense is 4th in the league in QB hits with 40; they’ve sacked the QB 14 times, which is tied for seventh in the league. So Nix will be under some pressure tonight, and he’ll probably continue to attempt to complete a bunch of short passes. Not that it’s working for him! He’s averaged less than 200 yards per game.

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Week six is here! Some of your fantasy teams might be dead, but DFS rolls on, and there’s always a way to get a piece of the fantasy football action.

I’ve been having a ton of fun writing up all of these games this year, so we’re going to hit it hard again this week. We have bye weeks upon us, and continued games in Europe. So the slates are getting smaller, which is kind of nice.

Detailed Projections Might Be Coming

I’m also trying to go full “projection bro”. I’ve been working on some detailed NFL projections (with all of the stats given rather than just the fantasy points). I might debut those this week. I’m looking for a few testers that can take a close look and identify where things don’t look right. This stuff isn’t easy to do, but I think I have the knowledge of the game and the AI chops to get something decent out there.

AI will do most of the work in math these days. A lot of different people could open up ChatGPT and tell it to make an NFL projection model. It might look decent, but you need more than that to make something decent. What you need is the right data to feed in and the correct knowledge and prompting abilities to refine everything. The toughest part is figuring out usage when players are hurt, which they are every week. So I’m working on that. Let me know if you want to be a part of the testing.

Implied Totals

There’s a new page on the NFL app with this information. I’m trying to consolidate everything into the app. So check that out if you’re a paid sub with access.

1. Rams (vs. ARI): 33 points

2. Bills (vs. LV); 28.75 points

3. Bears (vs. ATL): 26.25 points

4. Colts (vs. TEN): 25.75 points

5. Patriots (vs. NYJ): 25.5 points

We have the Rams with a ridiculous 33-point implication. That will be a key game for us. The Bills stay on the West Coast to face the Raiders, and they imply a large number as well.

Game O/Us

1. BUF/LVR 53.5

2. GB/DAL 52.5

3. LAR/ARI 25.2

4. ATL/CHI 49.5

Those are the big four. But it’s best to look at each game in isolation.

Bears vs. Falcons

The Bears' defense grade is low, and it was low last week, which put us on the Packers' side for a big day. They smashed the Bears' defense last week, and now a red-hot Falcons offense gets to take a crack at them at home.

Chicago has allowed 6.0 yards per play, one of the worst in the league. 8.7 per pass attempt, 4.4 per rush. It’s bad.

The Falcons’ defense is much better, allowing 4.8 yards per play (6.2 per pass, 3.7 per rush). They grade out at a 113 grade, which is very good.

Both QBs are listed as questionable, but it looks like we’re getting both guys back this week. So we can play this one as normal.

Quarterbacks

Michael Penix ($5,000) has been excellent in three games. This is one of the things that has surprised me most this year. Penix was not very impressive in his first two years, and then he sustained another major leg injury and missed a bunch of time and did not have a normal preseason. But then he shows up and starts balling. +0.34 EPA, 9.2 yards per pass attempt, 3:1 TD:INT, and 719 passing yards in three games. He’s been one of the most efficient QBs in the league, and he’s the “top right” most QB in the NFL since week three.

The schedule has been pretty easy for him. He’s faced the Packers, Saints, and Ravens in his first three games. But it doesn’t get any tougher this week. Is he in play for DFS? Probably not in cash games. They get very run-heavy close to the goal line, and Penix himself has four rushing yards all year. So the floor is pretty low even while he’s having no trouble piling up some passing yards.

Caleb Williams ($6,200) is pretty affordable in his return, but I’d rather not rush into this against a good Falcons defense. We don’t know if the hamstring will be back to 100%, and the Bears offense still isn’t quite a proven juggernaut. Maybe they’ll prove to be with Williams in there, but there’s not enough evidence for me yet.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson ($8,700) has not increased in price since week four.

He’s averaged more than 20 xFP per week since they got Penix in there at QB.

He has at least 20 opportunities in each game and he’s gone above 30 twice.

And he might be the best athlete in the game on the offensive side of the ball. I’ve always believed that the best athletes are probably the defensive ends or something, but that’s a debate for another time. Anyways, you get it. Bijan has everything you want. Elite role, elite talent, and an elite matchup this week. All of this while ceding four rushing touchdowns to the other B Robinson. You could look at that as a negative thing since they’re happy to get Brian in there when they’re close. Or you could say that Bijan should actually be more expensive because you wouldn’t expect these two to share the rushing touchdowns evenly the rest of the season. It’s really hard to look away from these stud RBs even at the highest price points in DFS cash.

We have D’Andre Swift ($6,700) in play as well, since we figure that Kyle Monangai should miss a second game. But it’s a tough defense to score against. And the Bears used Roschon Johnson kind of a lot last week. Swift played just 57% of the snaps and carried it nine times (Johnson received five carries, so a significant role in a low-volume week). Swift saved his day with a touchdown and a 4-30 receiving result on five targets.

But the price is up, the matchup is worse, and we didn’t get the 80% of snaps and 90% of RB opportunities role we thought we might last week. I like some other guys in this range more, and it’ll be tough to fit a $6500-$7000 RB in there with Bijan/Walker if we’re playing one or both of them. But Swift goes on the list anyways, because he does have a better role with Monangai out.

Pass Catchers

It’s Drake London ($7,000) and then everyone else in the passing game for Atlanta. A 35% target share, 31.3% TPRR, 5.1 yards per route with Penix in there.

And I think he should be more expensive. Look at where he lines up in Tgt/Route and Yards/Route since week three:

Both of these Falcons studs are in play. So much of the offense goes through those two, and the matchup doesn’t get a whole lot better. I think it’s really good for them that Caleb Williams is returning as well. That should help the Bears move the ball better and generate more urgency and more points for the Falcons.

We have seen three different QBs for the Bears, so there hasn’t been continuity. Williams most-targeted WR in weeks 1-2 was Kalif Raymond. It’s been really spread out and hard to read:

Burden’s the best guy they have in my book, and he leads them with that 22% target share and 25.2% target per route. But only 266 yards on 23 receptions with a non-elite 1.9 yards per route. The price popped up as well:

I think he’s an okay play, and he’s my favorite one. But I don’t think I can get to any Bears players this week.

Colston Loveland ($4,900) is under $5K for the first time.

He is on the field an absolute ton with an 85% snap share. But the opportunity has been weak in all but week four:

I think he’s a strong tourney play. The workload is there; it just hasn’t happened for him yet, with a weak 57% catch rate turning into 0.79 yards per route. We don’t suddenly just think he’s bad. Some better weeks are coming, but this isn’t the spot to bet on it in cash.

Recap

I would call it foolish to not have some Falcons exposure this week. They’re a great three-man stack in this one with Penix + London + Bijan. I’m in on Bijan and London in cash. Probably not both, but certainly one of them. Smash spot for the Falcons, who could score 40 points in this spot.

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Possible Super Bowl preview??

We have the NFC favorite against the #2 team in the AFC, per Polymarket. I’ll be taking some positions for MNF in the MLB DW Polymarket squad tonight. Use this link to join that, and get a sign-up bonus if you’re a new account. We had a winning Sunday on a few purchases. I’ve been comparing the lines between DK and Polymarket, and they’re almost always more favorable on the prediction market side of things.

Huge total at 54.5 points. The team grades from my own little algorithm:

• Bills: 124 on offense (elite), 100 on defense (average)

• Rams: 118 on offense (elite), 129 on defense (elite)

That model had the Seahawks as the #1 team from the middle of the season on last year, so you could say that algo is a perfect ONE FOR ONE at picking the Super Bowl winner. Stop the count!

The current top 10 teams:

So let’s try to figure out how this MNF game is going to go.

Bills Side

Quarterback

Josh Allen. There’s not much reason to break him down in detail. He has six passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns in four games. He’s +0.26 in EPA and at 8.5 yards per attempt. The only problem is three interceptions and a non-elite completion percentage of 65%. But whatever, the floor is so high with his throwing and rushing.

This is a tough defense, which might work against the Bills. But it’s a 54.5-point total, and the Bills are implied for 25.5 points, so that speaks for itself. The Rams are still without Myles Garrett, but they’ll have Aaron Donald in this one. They haven’t had those two together this year, so the defense could end up being a lockdown unit late in the year, but we shouldn’t expect the Bills to be stifled in this one, and the Rams offense is going to put pressure on Allen to go all-out for this big game.

Running Back

James Cook is second to only Kenneth Walker in yards per carry this year with six yards per carry (Walker’s at 6.3). He has 57, 135, 154, and 75 yards on the ground this year. They didn’t run a ton of plays last week and Cook got just 12 carries. I’m sure they didn’t like that result.

The thing that kept Cook from having massive fantasy games is all the touchdowns that Josh Allen steals and the fact that he has just six catches and 24 receiving yards all year. He’s not being used as a pass catching back, so his fantasy points come from high-efficiency volume on the ground. And there have been enough touchdowns to go around to have him with three touchdowns in four games. That touchdown pace should regress upward, I don’t think Allen can average 1.75 rushing touchdowns per game all season.

The Rams have been better at stopping the pass (4.8 yards per attempt) than stopping the run (4.0 yards per carry) so far. That’s the best YPA allowed in the league. Their yards per carry allowed is just a little bit better than the league average of 4.2.

So it’s a nice spot for Cook matchup-wise. The game script might not go his way since the Rams are capable of scoring early and often. A high pass rate for the Bills is bad for Cook, but that kind of approach should push him into the 4+ target range.

But there are paths to Cook not being worth this showdown salary. If you’re playing a lineup that projects the Rams to score big points through the air, it’s sharp to leave Cook off of that build while playing Josh Allen and a cheaper Bills pass catcher.

Pass Catchers

Major injury stories here. Joshua Palmer is out and DJ Moore is questionable. It’s tough to build lineups without knowing that Moore status. It’s a game-time decision, and a big one at that.

Moore has missed significant time already, and yet has an 18% target share overall and a team-leading 29% target per route. He’s their main guy and has been great with Josh Allen throwing him the ball so far.

If he’s out, there’s major value. Even if he’s in, the Joshua Palmer injury opens up some spots for other guys. Palmer has played 42% of snaps this year, so he’s on the field a lot. He’s seen a target on 19% of his routes, which is significant.

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DFS Lineup Recap

Came up short again. It was a messy Sunday morning with unknown injury statuses for Ashton Jeanty and the Bengals receivers. Sunday mornings are busy for me, going to church and lunch with the family, so I’m not sitting there reacting to every piece of news and stuff like the pro players.

Some weeks when I’m confused and things are changing fast on a Sunday morning, I’ll lean heavily on the ETR projections. That was the case this week. I’m a subscriber to their product, which is fantastic. So check that out here if you’re serious about this stuff.

There was obvious chalk this week with the DET/ARI game being so far above the rest of the slate. It was pretty easy to jam in as many pieces of that game as possible. I ended up with FIVE guys from the same game, including three different pass catchers on the Arizona side. The thinking there was just embracing the chalk game, hoping it smashes as it should, and taking advantage of other people trying to get a little too cute.

Four different players from one pass attack limits your ceiling and puts you in major risk if they don’t smash. And that cost me this week, but I still think it was fine. I thought I was getting 95% of the points from Arizona, but then Brissett threw two touchdowns to someone named Teagan Quitoriano. He had two catches in the game, both for touchdowns. Jalen Brooks even saw seven targets, so it did not all go through McBride + Wilson + Bourne like I thought.

Brissett wasn’t even doing well until fourth quarter garbage time, but he got there.

The lineup was so, so chalky. I was between Emanuel Wilson and Braelon Allen for RB2, and went with Wilson for the better game environment. But that was wrong and cost me more than a handful of points. That was the main decision that cost me. So I’m now at two wins, two losses, and one push. Which means all of this research has gone for no profit! Better than a loss at least, and we’re having fun.

Week 5 xFP

I retrained the model this morning from 2023-2025 data and re-applied it to 2026. So the xFP values have changed a little bit. But it should be a little better now.

Here are the leaders from Thursday-Sunday in week five:

This stuff’s available on the web app. I upgraded it late last week.

GIANTS

The Giants ran 88 plays to lead the league. Fantasy football is as simple as just figuring out which offense is going to run 80+ plays and then jamming in that QB and the main dudes. But you can’t actually do that.

Jameis Winston threw it 54 times. That sent 20 targets to Malik Nabers (11-121-1) and 13 to Isaiah Likely (11-94-2).

Those two are the playmakers. They’re both very good at their jobs, so they’ll come through when the volume is up to that level. Nabers proved to be healthy enough to crush defenses. The sell high window is open even more! But that gets less comfortable now after he played 91% of the snaps and ran 57 routes for a 37% target share. He looks pretty healthy to me! So is it still a sell? I’d still be interested. You can probably get someone to value him as a second-round pick, and the QB play and his shoulder are still reasons to worry.

Isaiah Likely has been pretty studly, man. 31% target per route, 1.88 yards per route, 70% of the snaps, 29% of the total targets, and four touchdowns in five games.

Winston still hasn’t been great, but they’re willing to give him volume, and he’s been able to get the ball to these guys.

LIONS

The Lions ran 66 plays in a relatively easy win. They averaged 6.2 yards per play and won the game 45-21. So yeah, the markets were right on that game. 66 points.

31 opportunities for Gibbs. He’s on a historic pace. Only an injury can slow the dude down. It could have even been better, there could have easily been a third touchdown.

Amon-Ra St. Brown was sort of disappointing with just 6-69-0 on his 11 targets. Jameson Williams scored two touchdowns, Sam LaPorta got his hands on one, and Jared Goff sneaked for one as well. So it was just what we’ve come to love about the Lions. Lots of yards, lots of points, and it’s all concentrated to Gibbs + St Brown + LaPorta + Williams. A must-watch offense every week.

Jared Goff is playing elite football. Not super hard to do with all of these weapons and this scheme, but a 12:0 TD:INT with 7.73 yards per attempt is terrific.

He’s fantasy’s #1 quarterback today. He won’t be tomorrow after Josh Allen plays tonight, but a perfect runout for him thus far.

COWBOYS & BUCS

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Thursday already did the damage! The Cowboys were the public’s Week 5 pick and lost 24-16 at home to Bucky Irving and Jalon Daniels. That’s precisely why I never pick Thursday games. They’ve burned people twice already this year.

We survived Week 4 if you were on the Ravens or the Vikings. Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-18, Minnesota held Miami to 10 in a 15-10 win, and both were the chalk. The Seahawks also won, 30-23 over the Chargers. The Bills did not. New England took them 29-26, and that was the week's biggest killer. Bills tickets were light, so the field did not get blown up. I said last week I didn’t like picking divisional matchups.

Quick Thoughts

Biggest spread: Texans (-7.5) at Titans, with the Jaguars right next to them around a touchdown against the Eagles in London.

Best Week 4 burn: Bengals (-6.5) at Miami. Not a division game. Miami is a mess, Achane is out for the year, and Cincinnati’s next real spot isn't a game you are dying to protect.

Interesting options: Texans at Tennessee, Lions at Arizona, Jaguars in London if you still have them and you want a sprinkle.

Do not touch: Steelers, Eagles, Bears @ Packers, Lions

Ownership was a pile-on for Thursday. Cowboys were projected to eat 35–45% depending on the pool. Bengals seem to be the clear No. 2, somewhere in the 25-35% range, and that number was already sliding because Tee Higgins has not practiced and Ja’Marr Chase is working through the concussion protocol. He got in a limited session Thursday, so he has a chance. Higgins does not. Texans were third, roughly 10–20%, and a lot of that is people chasing the biggest number left. After that, it falls off a cliff.

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First, the week five breakdown is completed. The version you got in your inbox was not the full thing, so you’ll have to open it in the browser to get the updates.

App Updates

The password has changed, so scroll down below the paywall to get the new password. But I’ve added some things and upgraded some things.

I’ll just go page by page to tell you what’s there.

Book Based Projections

No change to this one. It looks good enough to me. This takes the lines from the betting markets and converts them into a projection. Very useful for your fantasy lineup decisions. The limitation is that not all players have markets, and I only scrape it once or twice a day. It’s not a live connection. I only have so many API credits, so I have to take it easy. So if you’re between a couple guys to put into your starting lineup, you can see what the book lines are saying about them.

Game by Game

The biggest thing is the grades. They’ve been there all year, but there’s enough data now to use them. That uses yards per play and adjusts for the strength of schedule they’ve played. So if you’ve averaged 7.5 yards per play but have done it against defenses that always give up high yards per play, it adjusts for that. Pretty good one-number look to see how good or bad a team’s offense and defense is.

The projections tables have also been upgraded in appearance.

Weekly Projections

Dedicated page for the DFS projections. I didn’t have that until now. I’m not claiming they’re the best DFS projections on the market, but I use them to generally guide some decisions.

Expected Fantasy Points

Big facelift here. I want to use xFP a lot. And now you have a one-stop shop to see that. You’ve got the differential table which compares actual vs. expected fantasy points and shows you the differences so you can see which guys are over or under performing their opportunity.

You can look at a certain week or team and chop it up. And there’s a cool “Player spotlight” section where you can pick one player and see how it’s gone:

Line Movement

This is brand new. I scrape the game lines every day, I’ve been doing that since the beginning of the season. So you can see where lines opened in the pre-season, or more usefully, where they were seven days ago or three days ago or one day ago.

Player Grades

No changes here, and I’ve detailed how those work in the past. Hopefully you know by now! But it takes my favorite evaluation stats for each position and turns them into one score. You can select a week interval or just see the full season stuff.

Get in there and poke around and let me know what questions or requests you might have! I’m trying to make your subscription worth it here while baseball is wrapping up.

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This post is now complete. The first version of it was missing some games, but it’s all done now.

Game Links

• Bengals vs. Dolphins

• Raiders vs. Patriots

• Vikings vs. Saints

• Browns vs. Jets

• Colts vs. Steelers

• Texans vs. Titans

• Giants vs. Commanders

• Bears vs. Packers

• Broncos vs. Chargers

• Lions vs. Cardinals

• 49ers vs. Seahawks

First bad lineup of the year last week, so I’m anxious to make it right. Hopefully some of you avoided the mistakes I made and have gone 3/4 or 4/4 in cash this week.

I even figured it was a good week to embrace the chalk plays in tournaments. I threw 150 lineups into the 50-cent tourney, but almost all of them were ruined by those pretty popular plays that did not work out. There will be weeks where the million dollar lineup looks a lot like one that you might’ve played in cash. I’m waiting for one of those weeks, it’ll come. And I’m going to be there for it with some $10 Hundo entries or better.

Week 5 Implications

Top of the board:

Two big old games this week:

• Lions vs. Cardinals

  • A Lions offense that is humming, a Cardinals offense that is willing to go into big volume through the air, and two very beatable defenses

• Seahawks vs. 49ers

  • Maybe better for real life than for fantasy as both defenses are good (the Seahawks defense is better than good), but a game that should be competitive enough to get the studs into bigger volume projections

The ugly:

• Texans vs. Titans

  • The Texans have been more fantasy-friendly than expected, but it’s not a pedal-to-the-metal offense, and the Titans are one team that we try to avoid.

• Browns vs. Jets

  • Two teams playing a lot better than they did a year ago, but just a 39.5-point total. Both offenses are very hard to trust.

• Bengals vs. Dolphins

  • We need injury report clarity on the Bengals side. But if Chase & Higgins both miss, that is the game with the least offensive talent by a mile

Bengals vs. Dolphins

It’s Friday morning. The best guess on the Bengals side is that Ja’Marr Chase will play (although he still has to clear the final check in the concussion protocol process), and Tee Higgins will not. But nothing is set in stone yet. They have a bye next week, so it would make sense for them to have Higgins sit this one out with his adductor thing and get him 100% right for the rest of the season following the bye.

They opened as a seven-point favorite, that’s down to 6.5. The O/U has fallen four points from its opening of 46.5 down to 42.5. That “opening” was the line from before last week’s game, so you can see the impact that Higgins/Chase have on that. A half point in the spread isn’t big, but it’s something, and the total was a big move.

If they’re both out, it’s a ragtag group of pass catchers, and we’ll talk about that. But we can’t really get a full grip on this game until we know the final injury report.

The Bengals defense grades very poorly at 86. The Dolphins offense hasn’t been a total disaster at moving the ball, but they haven’t finished many drives and they’re playing the rest of the season with De’Von Achane. So we shouldn’t be counting on them to turn any games into high-scoring affairs.

Quarterbacks

The Dolphins have averaged 4.7 yards per play. That’s bad. But they can run the ball a bit with 4.3 yards per carry. Malik Willis still has just 19 carries and 112 yards on the year with a touchdown. He’s 11-67 in his last two games. They ran only 39 plays last week, so there wasn’t much opportunity. Willis went 2-11-0 on the ground in that game. The running stuff isn’t reliable, but he’ll have some big games on that front eventually. This is a good matchup, but the weapons are so rough. Willis has 18, 13, 12, and 3.5 points this year, so he’s not coming through. You really can’t risk a 12-point game from your QB in your DFS lineup. Maybe he’ll get more going here with the legs and some bigger pass plays against a weak defense, but it’s too tough for DFS.

Joe Burrow is tough to play at $6,900 without all of his weapons. You’d prefer shootouts with him (and with every QB, but especially the ones who are solely on passing yards and TDs for their points). Can’t do that with his 17.9-point projection.

Running Backs

Chase Brown ($6,900) saw 11 targets last week; that was definitely boosted by Ja’Marr Chase missing most of the game. He ran it nine times for ten yards, so that was really ugly, but 11 catches is 11 points in PPR formats so he got there. This is a clean matchup for him against a bad defense as a touchdown favorite. I wish the price hadn’t come up this much, but he’s still in play. He should see 5+ targets if one or both of those WRs are out. There are several options at RBs, so it’s not a first-click play, but Brown’s pretty high up on the list.

Ollie Gordon ($5,300) was only able to get the ball 11 times while they ran those 39 plays last week. They didn’t have the ball. He ceded five rush attempts to Jaylen Wright, but he averaged 11 yards per carry for 100 yards on almost no volume, so he made his case to be the lead back. He ran seven routes on 18 drop backs. He doesn’t really profile as a pass-catching back, but they weren’t totally afraid to use him in that way sending two targets to him for a 12% share. It’s pretty thin. He’ll require a touchdown, but that could happen, and it looks like he’ll be pretty efficient in this spot. I’d rather not play him, but this might be the most I like a Dolphins player so far this year.

Pass Catchers

Dohnte Meyers $3,500 was pushed into 53 routes last week. He saw nine targets for a 7-82-0 line and made his case to be the team’s WR1 if they’re missing the big two guys. The history isn’t there, he was in the CFL a year ago, but a 17% target per route and those 15 fantasy points last week gives us some sign that he’s capable. He’ll be owned if he’s the WR1 this week. It might be bad chalk; we just can’t have a lot of confidence that the guy can play. But the projection is going to have to be very good on someone here, and he’s the best bet at this point.

The other guy is Mike Gesicki $4,100. He’s stepped up in the past while they were missing a big-name. He has a 20.3% target per route this year on limited participation. They’ll use him more this week, and we know he’s an above-average pass-catching tight end.

The update on the Dolphins pass-catcher stuff:

So it’s Malik Washington $4,600 as the main guy there. The Malik to Malik connection! Washington has scored 7, 9, 11, and 12 points in his four games. He has seen 8, 5, 10, and 5 targets, and he has five carries in the last three games as they’re forced to do some unique stuff without Achane. He’d be a lot more interesting at $4K. He hasn’t had a game you love at this price, but it’s been a consistent uptrend, and again, this is a good matchup for the Dolphins. If Chase is in, we think the Bengals can take a big lead and force the Dolphins to throw the ball. Can they do that with any success? I don’t know, but you could see another double-digit target from Washington.

Recap

Really need the injury report to be finalized before deciding, but Chase Brown is in play no matter what, and Dohnte Meyers and Mike Gesicki could be key plays if they’re missing both guys.

Raiders vs. Patriots

Average-looking game environment in New England. The Patriots defense has looked good, but the Raiders offense has done enough and can create some decent game environment.

The Patriots beat the Bills last week to get their offense grade above 100, but it’s still been pretty ugly overall. They have been forced to spread the ball around a bunch, and they’re splitting things in the backfield. So it’s tough to find DFS plays on their side. But let’s go into this.

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye ($6,300) has held at this price all year. He ran for 54 yards last week and threw three touchdowns. So he looked a lot more like his 2025 self in that one. I thought he was a pretty nice buy-low in this piece last week, and that looks right - but I didn’t do anything about it myself, so what’s even the point?

I really haven’t seen much at QB a few games into this one, so I’m not totally off the idea of playing Maye. We kinda thought he’d end up being a $6800-$7000 QB this year, but he’s down here at $6,300 in a fine matchup.

Running Backs

Last two weeks on the Patriots side:

59% of snaps to Stevenson, 38% to Henderson. Henderson really sucked last week, so it looks more and more like Stevenson is the guy. He’s just $5,500 here and listed as questionable after he missed practice Wednesday for a reason we don’t know. If that’s worse than it sounds and he misses the game, the TreVeyon Henderson $5,000 gets right into play. But there’s no reason for us to think that Stevenson will miss.

It’s probably too thin to play Stevenson even though the price is about $500 less than what I expected. But I don’t hate it too much, and I think he’s a strong play in season-long leagues.

Ashton Jeanty ($7,200) goes over $7K. He’s averaged 3.4 yards per carry this year, which is bad, but he has 25 targets and 165 receiving yards, plus two touchdowns. So he’s a very good receiving back and should find his way into some rushing touchdowns eventually. I just don’t think I want to pay this price against a good defense. What I thought might happen is his passing game usage would dry up with Bowers back, but it hasn’t. He has 9-105-0 in two weeks with Bowers on a 14% target share, which is really solid for a running back.

Pass Catchers

The Brock Bowers ($7,000) thing is nuts. They’re just using him like a wide receiver; he’s hardly even a tight end. Bowers in two games:

• 79 routes

• 31.6% target per route

• 2.56 yards per route

• 24 targets

• 202 yards

• 2 TD

He is an elite wide receiver at the tight end position. It’s not as though we have a misprice here, but when you start considering replacement level, Bowers becomes a guy you want to have on your list most weeks. That works better when we don’t have high-priced RBs we really want to play. But we’ll see if we can fit him for this spot.

That’s gotta be it on the Raiders side; it’s so concentrated on Jeanty and Bowers right now.

Romeo Doubs ($5,000) got it going last week with two touchdowns. He posted a team-high 29% TPRR and soaked up nine targets. Since week two when AJ Brown was gone:

Those are pretty nice numbers for Doubs. He went 3-96-0 in week two and 3-49-0 in week three before the breakout 6-58-2 last week. Three pretty tough defenses faced in those first three games, so it’s been a nice buy-low opportunity on the Patriots passing game. Except that AJ Brown will be back before too much longer, and that will hurt these guys.

But I can’t say I hate the play on Doubs this week. Decent matchup, and he’s synced up with Maye pretty well. The floor doesn’t feel great; the Patriots are still suspect, and the targets have been spread out more than we like. But I’ll throw him on the list.

Recap

The news on Rhamondre Stevenson could make a big difference. It still sounds to me like he’ll play, but there’s a chance that something happens there and we get a fuller workload from TreVeyon Henderson. Brock Bowers is in play on the Raiders side, probably until he gets to $7500 or more, which he probably will. Drake Maye is also a considerable play, but he’d be more comfortable with AJ Brown available.

And I’ll give Ashton Jeanty a spot on the list just because there aren’t many names there right now.

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This could have been a big-time showdown in Dallas. But the Bucs come in at 0-4 and have Baker Mayfield missing another game after the injury.

We have Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite at home. The O/U is 47.5. So the implied score is Cowboys 28, Bucs 19.5. Let’s get into both teams.

The Cowboys opened at 9.5 and briefly went to 10, but it’s down to 8.5 now. There’s a “line movement” option on the app, which is sometimes useful.

The total has held steady at 47.5.

Cowboys Side

It hasn’t been pretty for Dallas, but they find themselves at 2-2 with a great chance to achieve a winning record again with this soft matchup.

→ Offense Grade: 99
→ Defense Grade: 83

These grades adjust for strength of schedule. It uses yards per play and adjusts for their matchups. So we’re not just looking at how Dallas has moved the ball overall on a per-play average, but taking that and adjusting it for what the defenses they’ve faced have allowed through their season so far. It’s still not a perfect way to do it, but it gives us a quick idea of the strength of each team on both sides of the ball. Four games in, we’re getting some decent data now, but these won’t be truly reliable numbers probably for a few more weeks.

The Cowboys are at a +4.1 PROE. They have averaged 3.8 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Their defense doesn’t do them a lot of favors, so they’re playing in high-scoring games weekly.

→ Week 1: 20-28 loss vs. NYG
→ Week 2: 37-20 win vs. WAS
→ Week 3: 31-34 loss vs. BAL
→ Week 4: 34-30 win vs. TEX

That’s a whole bunch of points, but they’ve played some good offenses so far. It will be on Bucs undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels to push the Cowboys tonight. This is the softest matchup the Cowboys defense has had. If the Bucs really struggle tonight, it probably won’t be because of what the Cowboys do defensively, but more because they have a QB out there who has little business starting NFL games at this point. The guy went to Kansas, and he didn’t play basketball. So that tells you a lot.

Dak Prescott has thrown it 151 times this year, 38 times per game - the 9th-most in the NFL. The target share data:

CeeDee Lamb saw 21 targets last week in one of the highest-volume pass-catcher games you’ll see. It’s not going to get that crazy tonight, but Lamb is the clear #1 target with that target share and an elite 3.58 yards per route run.

The ADoT on Lamb is 10.0 yards, so he’s doing both short and long stuff. George Pickens is more of the deep man with a 12.1-yard ADoT. Pickens has run nine slot routes all year (Flournoy 67, Ferguson 54, Lamb 46). So his floor is pretty low even though he’s averaged seven targets per game. He’s just not running those high-value PPR routes where they scheme the ball to him in space and let him run with it. But he’s one of the game’s elite downfield options and we saw that last week with 50+ yard catch. He’s also not found the endzone yet, having just three red zone targets (Lamb 7, Ferguson 4, Williams 3, Pickens 3, Turpin 1).

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Game Info

Not a lot of Falcons/Saints games get a ton of interest, but this is a pretty sweet matchup for fantasy purposes.

There are a few different ways to calculate “pace”, but whichever one you use, you’ll see the Saints as the fastest team in the league. My dashboard uses play clock seconds per play. The Saints average just 25 seconds taken off the clock per play run, the fastest in football. The Saints move quick, and with Tyler Shough as a legitimate QB for them now, that creates a lot of scoring.

The Falcons got Michael Penix back last week and went off. They put up 7.4 yards per play, the second-most in the league last week. It’s a much improved team as they can now reliably get the ball in the hands of Bijan Robinson and Drake London.

I’d like to pump the brakes a bit here. Michael Penix was great last week (9.85 YPA, +0.37 EPA), but that is not what we saw from him last year. He took advantage of a bad Packers team last week and went for 256 yards. This isn’t the same matchup. I’m not saying it’s a really tough one, and you can see the high total, but the point is just that it’s a one-game sample from Penix this year that is getting the markets excited. He might still suck.

Atlanta’s defense has been stout. Just 4.8 yards per play allowed so far, one of the best marks in the league. The Saints have been in a couple shootouts, but their defense has been fine on a per-play basis (5.1 yards per play, which is right at the league average).

The Saints are without Travis Etienne now, which puts the ball into the hands of Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller. Those are two inefficient rushers. Kamara has averaged 2.8 yards per rush and has all of 12 yards on six catches. Miller wasn’t even active in week two, which speaks to how they view him a bit, and he’s averaged 3.4 yards per carry with five receiving yards on two catches (3 targets). So a lot of this will be on the shoulders of Tyler Shough, who has just a +0.04 EPA this year and four turnovers.

So we have:

• Doubts about Michael Penix

• Doubts about the Saints run game

I’m on the UNDER 47.5 on Polymarket. And I have a couple of MLB plays in the MLB DW squad as well for tonight. Join that squad here for free.

But let’s get a handle on the DraftKings Showdown and go for a big score.

Book-Based Projections

I have a fancy schmancy Python scripts that takes the betting lines and turns them into projections. I’ve used these a lot this year for fantasy football decisions. It’s a pretty good approach, in my opinion, since the books have a lot on the line to get their lines pretty accurate. It should be stated that the books intention is not to get the numbers right, but to get the money evenly split on either side. But those two things mostly go together. Here’s what we have:

You can get those for every game and every (available) player on the NFL app, if you’re a paid sub here, you have the password for that in the Resource Glossary.

Falcons Side

Penix targets last week:

• Drake London 10

• Jahan Dotson 3

• Zachariah Branch 2

• Olamide Zaccheaus 2

• Kyle Pitts 2

• Bijan Robinson 2

• Austin Hooper 2

So it’s Drake London and then a bunch of “who is that again?”

They ran the ball at a -3% PROE last week and gave Robinson 29 carries and two targets. It’s Bijan on the ground and London threw the air. Very, very concentrated stuff when Penix has been in there for this Falcons team, even dating back to last year.

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Please Consider Subscribing

As I wrote last week, I was laid off from my full-time job last week. The more time that passes, the more I’m becoming convinced to make this my primary source of income. A new website is in the works, which will be a lot better. Your subscription will be ported over when the time comes; no action should be needed from you.

But I am not afraid to BEG, and I’d like to sincerely ask you guys to consider becoming a paid subscriber even though the baseball season is wrapping up. We could potentially make this a content factory, and I’ll be building a ton of new tools this winter that will be hosted right in the new site. Thanks for your consideration and support.

DFS Lineup Review

It didn’t go well at all. It was a week with a ton of value driven by injuries. The DeVonta Smith injury put me on Dontayvion Wicks. The Jordan Jefferson injury put me on Jordan Addison, and also created great spots for Aaron Jones (who did fine) and TJ Hockenson (who smashed and was the key to the cash slate). The Mason Taylor injury has elevated Kenyon Sadiq.

So I ended up playing three pretty unproven fantasy assets in Wicks, Addison, and Sadiq. And they all sucked. I almost did this switch:

Sadiq → Hockenson
Addison → Jones

That would have been a nice one. I was betting on that Vikings game being a dud, and it was - but Hockenson and Jones were the whole offense and both had nice games.

The Parker Washington bust was pretty wild to see. Teams have been hitting the Bengals with tight ends, and the Jaguars did that themselves sending eight targets to Brenton Strange. Washington saw three targets and caught one of them for seven yards. In hindsight, that looks like a “buy high” on Parker Washington, but I think I’d do it again. That was the game of the week, and Washington had been one of the best wide receivers in the league so far.

Randomness reigns, and wrong choices were made. The update on the year now:

Week 1: Doubled Up
Week 2: Doubled Up
Week 3: Push
Week 4: Lost

So that’s +1 overall, and we’ll roll into week five with even more information to make decisions with.

Injuries

Bad week for injuries. Here’s the rundown:

Lamar Jackson

Sounds like you’re probably going to lose a game or two from Lamar. That means it’s Tyler Huntley again. It’s good news for Derrick Henry’s carry total; they’ll have to go to him, but bad news for his touchdown chances, as this offense just won’t move the same. It’s bad news for Zay Flowers.

Huntley started in weeks eight and 17 last year.

Week 8
Henry: 21 carries, 71 yards, 2 TD
Flowers: 9 targets, 7 catches, 63 yards

Week 17
Henry: 36 carries, 216 yards, 4 TD
Flowers: 5 targets, 4 catches, 30 yards, TD

That Week 17 game is consoling to your Henry/Flowers owners out there. They smashed the Packers in that game. It’s pretty easy to play QB when your running back runs for 216 yards and four scores, but Huntley held his own. He knows how to run the offense. We’ll see them go very run-heavy. No question about that. But the defense can lock in on Henry more. He’s averaged only 4.2 yards per rush this year, so he’s showing some signs of age and lowering that elite career yards per carry.

This isn’t a situation where the offense becomes unusable in fantasy. It’s a great scheme and a QB who can handle things. But the overall point scoring is very likely to come down, so this is a negative for these guys.

Bengals Wide Receivers

It’s one game max for Ja’Marr Chase with a concussion. We’ll see what they say this week. It’s possible Chase can get out of the concussion protocol and not miss any time.

The Tee Higgins injury is worse. It was an adductor. That’s a new word for mem.

Hashtag wellness Wednesdays! Higgins did come back and shortly after that injury, but sat out their final desperation drive and looks pretty likely to miss some time. We’ll hear more today.

This is rough for Chase/Higgins/Burrow owners. The Bengals play the Dolphins next week. That was a potential 40+ point spot for them, but it’ll be significantly tougher without their two best skill players.

We will get some massive values, though. Mitchell Tinsley went 3-49-0 on seven targets. Dohnte Meyers went 7-82-0 on nine targets. Mike Gesicki caught a touchdown on a 3-40-1 line on five targets. And Chase Brown saw 11 (!) targets. Tinsley and Meyers are hardly NFL players, but they both made some plays yesterday and will have an ideal spot to play in next week.

It will be a situation just like this Vikings one we just saw as they went and played the Dolphins without Justin Jefferson. They did not score many points, but they were able to get the ball to Hockenson, and Aaron Jones had a big volume game with some success. It will not be comfortable to play these fill-in WRs next week; you still have to be really good to have success in the NFL, and we don’t know if these guys are good at all. Way more to come on that as I analyze that game during the week five breakdown.

Saquon Barkley

It’s a hamstring for Barkley. As always on X, there are mixed reports. The Eagles have downplayed the severity, while some social media doctors say that Barkley is destined for IR. I’d trust the word of the Eagles over the social media bros, but it does seem pretty likely that Barkley misses at least one game.

That opens the door for Tank Bigsby (14-55-0 yesterday) to be the rusher and Will Shipley to get pass-down work. Bigsby also left the game early with an undisclosed injury. So there’s a lot of news to wait for early this week in this situation. If Barkley is out and Bigsby is in, Bigsby becomes a decent season-long play, but probably not very appealing for DFS purposes since he’s nowhere near as good as Barkley and Shipley will be taking most of the RB catches.

The Eagles offense might also just be one of the worst in the league without Goedert, Smith, and Barkley. So it could be a dud-city and a full-avoid offense for DFS purposes.

Ladd McConkey

He re-aggravated a foot injury. Things have been brutal for the Chargers this year, who find themselves at 0-4 and set to face the Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, and Texans the next four weeks. Brutal schedule, and they’re basically already drawing dead with four losses.

Targets yesterday: Gadsden 8, Mitchell 6, Tre Harris 5, Vidal 3, Johnston 2, Hampton 2

It’s an ugly RB rotation there, but Keaton Mitchell is becoming more and more appealing for fantasy purposes. They’re scripting plays for him in the passing game, and he took 10 carries yesterday as well. Oronde Gadsen is probably their most talented pass catcher if McConkey misses time, but he’s done very little with his opportunity the last two weeks. Everything will be pretty thin in that offense. Similar situation to the Eagles, but made worse by a tough schedule coming up.

Volume Outliers

Highest play counts: CHI 90, LAR 83, LVR 80, DAL 78, CIN 76, MIN 75
Lowest play counts: NYJ 32, MIA 39, HOU 53, GB 57, BUF 58, JAX 58, SEA 58

Pretty easy to have some big fantasy days when you’re running 90 plays, and pretty tough to do it when you’re under 60. We saw the Bears dominate the time of possession like you’ll rarely see against the Jets. Suffocated them. The Dolphins got off just 39 plays.

Elevated Players Due to Injury

Ollie Gordon: 9 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD

Pretty ENCOURAGING start to his tenure as the Dolphins’ primary ball carrier. They listed Jaylen Wright as the starter yesterday, but Gordon took four more carries than him and averaged 11.1 yards per rush. He’s not going to average more than six yards per carry; don’t be ridiculous- this was an outlier game. But it was also an outlier game in that the Dolphins had just 18 rush attempts and 17 pass attempts.

Their volume is driven down by them just being a horrible team. The floors and ceilings are so low on everybody on this pitiful team, but Gordon showed what he can do and smashed on just 11 opportunities (2 targets, 2 catches, 0 yards through the air).

Braelon Allen: 14 carries, 59 yards, 0 TD

Very similar to the Dolphins situation. The Jets threw it 15 times and ran it 14 times. Allen averaged 4.2 yards per carry, which is decent, but they just didn’t have the ball enough to pile up any yardage. But it’s better news for the Jets than for the Dolphins. Geno Smith has played fine this year, so they shouldn’t have too many more of these games with so little volume. But also, Breece Hall will return before long, and Allen will go back to the backseat.

Dontavyion Wicks: 5 targets, 3 catches, 18 yards

Massive L for me, as I thought Wicks would have a big game in this one. The Eagles completed just 12 passes in this one, so the volume wasn’t there, but that’s probably because their team is just talentless right now. The winner was Darius Cooper, who saw seven targets and went 3-33-2 through the air.

It’s hard to feel great about anybody in this offense, as we already discussed. I certainly don’t want to buy into Cooper/Wicks/Lemon. Tank Bigsby is fine if Barkley misses time, but it seems like we’ll just have to wait until they get Barkley + Smith back for this offense to be able to do anything. It’s even tough to start Jalen Hurts in this situation.

Week 4 xFP

Top ten:

1. CeeDee Lamb 33.9

2. Kyren Williams 31.5

3. Tee Higgins 26.3

4. Tetairoa McMillan 26

5. Kyle Monangai 24

6. Aaron Jones 23.7

7. Javonte Williams 23.3

8. Sam LaPorta 22.2

9. Jahmyr Gibbs 21.9

10. Michael Wilson 21.9

11. Chase Brown 21.4

12. Quinshon Judkins 21.1

13. Puka Nacua 21.1

14. Ashton Jeanty 21.1

15. TJ Hockenson 21.0

16. Jonathan Taylor 20.2

17. Carnell Tate 20.0

18. Isaiah Likely 19.6

19. Trey McBride 19.0

20. Tony Pollard 18.9

I’ll break down a lot of these names and write a lot more; subscribe to get the rest of that, my weekly slate previews, the tools, and the MLB offseason content that has already started. Team previews season is upon us!

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We survived last week, with the Chiefs taking care of the Dolphins. The backup plans all won too, with the exception of the Seahawks, who were taken down by the Marcus Mariota-led Commanders.

Seahawks were at almost 13% in the Circa pool. I was expecting 7-10%, so more people were on them, probably because Sam Darnold came back.

Quick Thoughts

Biggest spread: Ravens (-11.5) vs Titans

Best Week 4 burn: Vikings at home against Miami, with the Ravens right next to them

Interesting options: Seahawks, Bills

Do not touch: Lions, 49ers, Packers, anyone sitting around a field goal, and anything in London

I see ownership as a coin flip at the top. Ravens could be around 39–43% and Vikings around 38–43%. Together they are eating close to 80% of tickets. After that, it falls off a cliff: less than 10% for the Bills, Bears, Seahawks, and Chiefs.

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A division full of 2-1 teams! Who saw the Steelers and Browns playing for first place, even just here in week four? I’m a Pittsburgh guy, so I have a little extra interest in this game. I know my wife will watch along with me tonight, so that’s always a fun time.

Game Info

The line implies that these teams are pretty equally matched. That’s alarming to my fellow lifelong Steelers fans. Being just a 2.5-point favorite against the Browns, even on the road, is uncharted territory. But that’s what happens when you roll out a 42-year-old QB.

The Browns want to run the ball, but haven’t been able to do it effectively with just 3.5 yards per carry. The Steelers have been pretty throw-heavy (+3.5 PROE) so far, but didn’t have any success with that until last week against the Bengals. They need protection for Rodgers to make it work, but the Browns don’t blitz a ton and have just 16 QB hits and seven sacks (both are in the middle of the pack). Losing Myles Garrett was a big deal.

The Steelers are tied for 7th in the league with eight sacks. They will surely be coming after Deshaun Watson, who has one of the highest sack rates in NFL history. So many of these Steeler games are decided by them making a huge play while pressuring the QB. That’s something to watch for.

Deshaun Watson has held his own and thrown five touchdowns to one interception, but he’s taken nine sacks and has a low ADoT of 6.2 yards. This seems like a turnover-heavy spot for the Browns.

BET: TJ Watt 1+ Sack, Deshaun Watson 1+ INT (parlay for +140)

When Watson does have some time, which could be rare, he can beat the Steelers defense. They traded Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas to end that saga, and Jalen Ramsey is playing with a broken wrist. There’s a reason the Steelers have given up 7.8 yards per pass attempt and a high number of big plays through the air. I think Denzel Boston (14.1-yard ADoT) is a good bet to haul in a long completion. But outside of single plays, we shouldn’t be betting on the Browns to do much scoring in this one.

Rico Dowdle is out, and that makes Jaylen Warren the best fantasy play in this game.

Dude was electric last week. He’s one of the best carriers of the ball in terms of missing tackles and getting big gains. It’s weird to me that they gave Dowdle so much work in the first two weeks, but that’s not a concern for tonight. Warren went for 17 xFP last week on 17 carries and four targets. I think he’s going to catch 5+ balls tonight, that’s how he’s best utilized.

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Implied Totals

1. Bills 27.75 (vs. NE)

2. Ravens 27.5 (vs. TEN)

3. Bengals 27.0 (vs. JAX)

4. Chiefs 26 (vs. LV)

Those are the big four on the board. The highest O/U’s:

1. CIN vs JAX: 51.5

2. DET vs. CAR: 50.5 (not on main slate)

3. BUF vs. NE: 48.5

4. ATL vs. NOR: 48.5 (not on main slate)

5. KAN vs. LV: 47.5

6. IND vs. WAS: 47.5 (not on main slate)

7. HOU vs. DAL: 47.5

The lowest totals:

1. MIA vs. MIN: 38.5

2. PIT vs. CLE: 38.5 (not on main slate)

3. TB vs. GB: 42.5

4. NYJ vs. CHI: 42.5

5. SEA vs. LAC: 42.5

Cardinals at Giants

We’ve got three weeks of data now so we can start talking about team grades.

Two below-average teams on both sides of the ball (this uses yards per play, which still wouldn’t have stabilized yet, but we’re getting closer). Arizona has shown the ability to score points with Jacoby Brissett and company, and they are very willing to let Brissett chuck the ball 40+ times.

The problem is that the Giants are still going with Jameis Winston, who has gone 24/49 for a 4.7 YPA this year on a pathetic -0.42 EPA. They traded for JJ McCarthy, which tells you something about Winston too. So we don’t think the Giants will push this game to being a shootout.

Volume is so important in DFS. We want players on offenses that run a bunch of plays, it makes it a whole lot easier for them to get there for us. This game isn’t going to be super important for me, but the Cardinals do have some plays to drill into.

Quarterbacks

Jacoby Brissett ($5,000) needs to be pushed into a high-volume game to get there. The Giants aren’t going to do it. Jameis Winston ($4,500) is up $500 and has proven again that he’s not good. This is not the game to draft a QB from.

I’m going to be off the Giants side of this game entirely.

Running Backs

My first hunch in this game was that we might be able to use Jeremiyah Love ($5,800). His data by week:

• Week 1: 32 snaps, 11 attempts, 15 routes, 4 targets

• Week 2: 19 snaps, 9 attempts, 8 routes, 3 targets

• Week 3: 51 snaps, 21 attempts, 21 routes, 5 targets

We learned last week that he’s the guy they want in the game when it’s going fast-paced and they really need to make some plays. He scored 22 fantasy points last week on 4.3 yards per carry and a 5-19-1 line through the air.

That sent Tyler Allgeier down to 30 snaps, two attempts, and four targets. But they were playing catch up to the 49ers in a high-scoring affair. That’s unlikely to be the case this week. So will they go back to a backfield split? That’s quite possible. Allgeier’s coaches have always seemed to like him, he was taking meaningful snaps from Bijan Robinson for a couple of years there.

So it would not be surprising at all to see this go back to a split. Playing Love in cash is betting that last week was the new game plan. And that might not be a good bet. He was a big-play star in college, but we haven’t seen it yet in the NFL (3.9 yards per carry). If Allgeier were out for the game, I think Love would become a smash play. But I have enough doubts about his workload to be hesitant about making him a cash play. But he’s going on the list.

Pass Catchers

When you throw the ball 51 times, some pass catchers will smash. The volume expectation is way down from that height this week.

But we know where the ball goes - Trey McBride ($6,500) and Michael Wilson ($5,500).

Nearly 60% of the targets go to those two. Wilson has a 25% TPRR; McBride’s at 34%. Wilson has 1.4 yards per route run (YPRR), McBride’s at 2.1. Those are the guys. But the prices have trended up, so neither guy is a super high priority, but they should both be in consideration.

But I have to repeat it every over and over again. Any little problem we find with a play makes it tough to play them in our single cash lineup. These things have to be perfect. And if the Cardinals dominate the game and run it a bunch with Love & Allgeier, Wilson and McBride will have a much tougher time getting a bunch of volume.

Recap

Three Cardinals make the list. That’s Love, McBride, and Wilson. But I’m not confident enough in the Giants ability to push them to put them high on their respective lists.

Titans at Ravens

A 43.5-point total with the Ravens owning most of them. It’s a Derrick Henry week if you’re choosing from that side. These are the spots you want to use that guy in - at home when they should hold a lead.

The shootout isn’t going to happen. The Titans are bad. Cam Ward isn’t an NFL QB right now, so it should be a relatively light volume day for the Ravens passing game. The Ravens defense isn’t a great one, but it’s not awful either, so we’re just going to continue to outright fade the Titans offense until we see Cam Ward make some strides forward (if that ever happens).

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($7,300) got a bit cheaper (-$200). Even in an elite spot like last week against the Cowboys, I couldn’t get to his price in cash. That’s usually not the way to make a solid cash lineup. And as an 11-point favorite at home the ceiling is way lower since we figure this game won’t be a 35-28 affair.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,400) jumps up $700 for this game. He has 24, 16, and 26 carries in his three games this year and has averaged 4.6 yards per tote with 1, 3, and 1 targets.

They have made him a tough click at $8,400. He will need the 100-yard bonus and multiple scores to really make this worthwhile. But this is the most likely spot of the year for him to do such a thing in as a massive favorite at home.

If they’re up 21 in the 4th quarter, they probably won’t play him - but he will also likely have been a part of the 3+ touchdowns that got them up by that much.

I’ll put him on the list; he’s a top 5 play at RB in a vacuum this week, but $8,400 for a non-pass-catching RB isn’t typically the right recipe for DFS cash.

Pass Catchers

If I’m not considering Lamar, I’m not considering a Ravens pass catcher. It’s a thin group. Zay Flowers ($6,900) returned last week and got through the game healthy, so they’ll be fully healthy for this game and that takes away any value. Flowers can, and has, smashed on extremely limited playing time. The dude has gone 10-234-1 on 25 routes this year for goodness sake, but it’s wayyy too thin to consider in this matchup.

Recaps

It’s Derrick Henry ($8,400) or nothing in this game, and it’ll probably end up being nothing. I’m really focused on targeting games I think can get to 50+ points and a bunch of plays run, and this isn’t one of them.

Patriots at Bills

What is going on with the Patriots? They’re 1-2 and got undressed by the Jaguars last week.

Drake Maye has regressed majorly. There are real questions about him after this early-season performance against SEA/PIT/JAX. He doesn’t have much help with his weapons since AJ Brown went out in week one, so it’s too early to jump ship. But it’s not an offense we can trust to play ball with Josh Allen and the Bills right now.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($7,700) struggled last week. He threw for 204 yards on 26 attempts and threw two interceptions. He saved his fantasy day with two more rushing touchdowns (he has six of those in three games now). Now he faces a tough Patriots pass defense and he’s the most expensive QB on the slate as per the usual arrangement.

The Bills have a high points implication, but it needs to be high odds of a shootout to get Josh Allen’s price into this cash lineup. He’s always a play for tourneys, his ceiling is just so high. Maybe some week this year we’ll use him. We’ll need some massive value at WR/TE to get there, and I don’t see it this week. Even if we find it, Josh Allen at this price against the Patriots probably isn’t the right move.

Running Backs

James Cook ($7,400) has averaged six yards per carry this year but has been very limited in the passing game (4-16-0) and has had those six touchdowns pilfered from him by his QB. And now his price comes up $500 for this less-than-great spot. He will get his 17+ carries and there are plenty of touchdowns to go around in this offense, but it’s just not the right spot.

Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled in week two and hit the bench, but came back to play 55% of the snaps (Henderson was at 33%) last week. So he’s still the main guy. They did split the carries pretty evenly last week with him and Henderson, but the offense just couldn’t do anything. I don’t think I need to prove to anybody that neither of these New England running backs are in play while they’re both active and healthy.

Pass Catchers

The Bills pass catchers had a down game last week due to the lack of volume. We’ve already gone over that the Patriots are a tough pass defense. So it’s not a great spot for these guys.

But we’ve seen very positive things from DJ Moore ($5,700) so far. He dominated the targets last week with 10 of Allen’s 25 targets and went 6-67-0. He has a nice 32% target per route run this year, so the volume is there.

Dalton Kincaid ($5,300) did very little last week on the low volume, but he at least did run a route on almost every drop back. His ceiling seems to be among the highest at the tight end position. But it’s another cash game thing we find. It’s just hard to pay big money for a tight end. Kincaid certainly doesn’t have the same floor as Bowers/McBride, although he’s not at that price range yet either. But the optimal strategy in the normal week is to either pay for Bowers/McBride or find the best play below $4K.

The tourney angle here is that Moore gets shut down by Gonzalez on the outside and the targets filter more to Kincaid. He could smash in this game, I have little doubt about that, it’s just mostly about the price and the worries that the Patriots could slow down the Bills a bit. Kincaid’s going on the list, but I think that’s it from this game.

The Patriots might have to throw it a bunch in this game. It’s usually not a bad idea to get some pass catchers against them. But Maye has played poorly and the targets have been very spread. Weeks 2-3: Hollins 12, Doubs 8, Henry 7, Douglas 7, Stevenson 5, Williams 5, Chism 3, Gilliam 2. Not a good spot.

Recap

These first three games are LAME. I’m putting Kincaid on the list, but I don’t suspect I’ll be using anybody from this one.

Jets at Bears

The Jets were instrumental to last week’s slate. They proved to be good enough to participate in a shootout with the Lions, and now they face a Bears defense that was viewed as one of the worst in the league before the year.

The Bears sure look like a shootout team to mean. Good offense, bad defense. But it’s Case Keenum at QB in all likelihood after his MNF victory. And while he played well, it’s not the same as if Caleb Williams is in there.

Let’s have a look.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith ($5,200) has 215, 247, and 321 passing yards in three games this year. He threw three touchdowns last week. So he can beat bad defenses. But this offense needs pushed, and now he’s without Breece Hall. Can Case Keenum ($4,600) replicate last week and make the Jets run a bunch of plays to get there? It’s possible.

These are two very cheap QBs in decent spots, and we like that. But the game total being at 42.5 is bothersome, and neither guy runs with the ball. We ideally want ceiling from our QB plays, and I don’t think we have it here. And if the touchdowns don’t come, they’ll end up with pretty poor scores. But I don’t completely hate it.

Running Backs

Breece Hall ($6,200) isn’t technically out, but he’s “week to week” and it seems like he’s going to miss this one. Braelon Allen ($5,200) steps into the starter role. The Hall injury happened in the second half last week, so we didn’t get a great look at the role. But Allen played 48% of the snaps and had a role even before Hall got hurt, so we can be pretty confident he’s going to see 12+ touches in this one with upside for 20.

Allen has averaged just 3.2 yards per carry and has just a 13% target per route run, so he’s not a guy oozing with upside who was just waiting for an opportunity. But we like $5,200 running backs who step into starting roles. He should be a bit more expensive, so he’s definitely in play against the Bears.

Let’s look at the Bears backfield numbers for the year:

So it’s about a 60/40 split. Keenum only targeted the RBs three times last week (all to Swift). Swift has averaged three targets per game, so that’s just not a huge part of his role in this offense.

That makes him a pretty tough click; you’ll absolutely need a big play and/or a score for him to smash in this role. I don’t think it works.

Pass Catchers

Keenum’s targets last week: Burden 11, Raymond 7, Odunze 6, Loveland 4, Swift 3. Burden put up a 41% TPRR and 2.3 YPRR, but a 5.1-yard ADoT kept the yardage to 61. He was somewhat lucky to take a shovel pass for a touchdown. I think the floor is pretty nice with Burden ($5,200), and that price is still very affordable.

Kalif Raymond ($3,600) remains very cheap despite leading this offense in yards. He’s gone 19-214-1 on 21 targets in three games. He leads the team in yards per route run, too.

Is it for real? Are three games enough to buy it after he was viewed as the 4th or 5th option in this offense before the year began? Maybe. The price is very attractive, even though it does feel a bit “point chasey” to me. I’m only going to consider him if the price makes everything else work, and I’ll be interested to see what the projections around the industry say.

Colston Loveland ($4,700) shouldn’t be this expensive after seeing just nine targets and a 0.42 YPRR through three games.

Geno Smith has something going with Garrett Wilson ($6,800), who jumps up $700 from his price last week after going 10-107-1 on 14 targets last week. He was aided by Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor being out, but he’s clearly the WR1 and a very good one at that. The price hike makes it a lot tougher. But I’m not counting him out.

Kenyon Sadiq ($4,000) had a breakout game last week with Mason Taylor out. Taylor was the starting TE for the first two weeks; he could return for this one, which would make it a tough buy-high on Sadiq. But Sadiq is very, very good. The Jets used the 16th overall pick on him, so he’s going to get used. If Taylor is out again, I’d consider it. He leads the team in yards per route run at 2.6, and they looked for him in the end zone last week. So he’s an awesome player, but I’d rather do it with Mason Taylor still out just so we can be confident we’ll get 20+ routes from him again.

Recap

There’s some cheap QB potential in this one, but I think the floors are probably a bit too low to really consider. Braelon Allen is the play I’m most interested in, and the Jets pass catching duo of Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq are in play as well. But I’m balking a bit at the price on Wilson, and Sadiq could be a trap if Mason Taylor is active and comes back to play significant snaps, which it seems like he will given what we saw in weeks 1-2.

Jaguars at Bengals

This is the best game environment on the main slate. The Bengals just got carved up by Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, and the Jaguars offense has been effective so far.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow ($6,800) is up there in price. He doesn’t run, so he’s very dependent on the big day through the air. It could happen in this one. I’d stack this game a bunch in tourneys, and the Bengals attack is easy figure out. You play Burrow with Chase AND Higgins and then come back with Parker Washington or maybe even a low-ownership play on Brian Thomas.

For cash, it’s probably not going to be a pocket passer at this price very often. I’ll throw Burrow on the list, because there is a chance this is the price that works. He’s not in the same tier as Allen & Jackson, and his ceiling is pretty huge if this game goes off.

Trevor Lawrence ($5,900) is the better play of the two, and possibly one of the better QB plays on this particular slate. He’s been very good so far with a +0.26 EPA and 7.7 yards per attempt. He ran for a bunch of touchdowns last year, that would’ve happened last week again had he not strangely taken the knee. The Bengals are a great team to play QBs against, and Lawrence’s price is nice.

Running Backs

Chase Brown ($6,100) is pretty cheap for a guy who has played 71% of the snaps and seen 13 targets in three games. He’s averaged 4.0 yards per game and has a real role in the passing game on a team that can score a bunch of points. So I think he deserves consideration. He’s more of a $6,500-$7,000 running back than a $6K guy; I’d call this a discount.

Bhayshul Tuten ($5,600) is the Jags main RB. He saw 15 carries and two targets last week while playing 53% of the snaps. They still rotate in Chris Rodriguez, LeQuint Allen, and Ameer Abdullah in there, so the workload is never going to be massive for Tuten. But when the play is designed for a running back, Tuten’s the guy they go to. I wouldn’t consider him a cash play because of the roles that these other RBs have, but the signs have been positive on Tuten thus far.

Pass Catchers

Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100) and Tee Higgins ($6,100) are probably the best 1-2 WR duo in the league. They haven’t been healthy together very often in the last few years, but they have been this year, and you can see how even their numbers are:

You get a $2,000 discount on Higgins from Chase despite him having just two fewer targets and 60 more receiving yards than Chase. What separates Chase is the red zone usage. They seem to have close-range plays designed specifically for him, so he ends up with more of the touchdowns. Higgins usually does his scoring on longer plays, as we saw last week.

Chase is properly priced, and you could argue that Higgins is too cheap. So for cash, if you’re playing one, I think it should be Higgins.

There’s a “block” strategy you can play with in DFS. You can play both Chase and Higgins with Burrow and know you’re getting 80%+ of the passing game points. That limits your ceiling, but it raises your floor if you’re really confident the Bengals are going to pile up a bunch of yardage through the air.

On the Jaguars side, it’s been Parker Washington ($6,500) and then everybody else. Washington has run 68 routes, has 15 targets, and the efficiency has been elite with a 34% TPRR and 3.25 YPRR. It wasn’t the best result last week, but he was targeted heavily in the red zone and scored a touchdown to make for a decent day. I think he should be a $7K receiver, so even while he’s up $600 this week, he’s definitely still a considerable play for cash.

Jakobi Meyers ($5,000) leads the team in routes run this year but has just a 15% target share and a 16% TPRR. So he’s not getting much attention from Lawrence even while being on the field a bunch.

Brian Thomas ($4,300) is a buy-low for tourneys. He has lined up against elite corners all year, so this matchup gives him some breathing room. You obviously can’t do it in cash (15% target share, 1.8 YPRR), but for tourneys it’s a great idea to pair with Lawrence and get some lower ownership on the BTJ side.

Recaps

Lots to like in this game.

• Trevor Lawrence

• Chase Brown

• Tee Higgins

• Parker Washington

• Ja’Marr Chase

Cowboys at Texans

The Cowboys are one of the most fantasy-friendly teams in the game. This looked like their toughest matchup of the year before the season. But the Texans' defense has been average so far, allowing 5.3 yards per play. Their run defense has been stout (3.5 yards per carry), but they’ve been beaten through the air (7.9 yards per attempt - seventh-worst in the league). So maybe it’s not too bad of a spot for the Cowboys after all. They’re back in Texas and playing in a dome, so that’s not a huge concern - even though it would obviously be better if the game were in Dallas.

Quarterbacks

Even with the Texans’ defense not looking as advertised, I still wouldn’t want to jump onto the Cowboys offense. They’re priced right. Dak Prescott ($6,400) has gotten a little cheaper this week, but this price isn’t a steal, and I’m hesitant enough about the Texans defense to not consider it. But game stacks are very much in full force for this contest. That would probably mean Dak → Lamb/Pickes with Nico Collins on the other side.

CJ Stroud ($5,700) gets a great matchup with Dallas who has a bad defense and an offense that can keep the games moving back-and-forth. Stroud just isn’t a very good fantasy QB, though. He has a 6.7 YPA with a -0.06 EPA and a 3:0 TD:INT through three games. Getting Nico Collins back in a boost. I guess it’s not a crazy idea for cash if you just need a cheap QB, but Trevor Lawrence seems like a much better play at a similar price. I don’t think I’ll ever end up on Stroud unless he gets down to $5K.

Running Backs

David Montgomery ($5,700) and Woody Marks ($4,700) have been splitting work. The last two weeks, it’s been Montgomery playing 57% of snaps and Mark at 41%. Montgomery has 17 attempts; Marks has 23. And neither guy is a big playmaker, so they’re off the board until one of the two gets hurt and misses a game.

Javonte Williams ($6,600) ripped off 19-98-1 on the ground last week as that rush attack was working well against the Ravens. This is not the defense to use him again, though, and the Cowboys’ preferred game plan is through the air. Williams has not given up much work to the other guys (76% of snaps, 43 of the 55 RB carries), but he’s not an explosive back, and the volume might be low here if they’re shutting him down early.

Pass Catchers

CeeDee Lamb ($7,800) and George Pickens ($6,300) have been targeted about the same. 26 for Lamb, 25 for Pickens. But Lamb is just the better wide receiver, at least for fantasy leagues. He’s gone 20-309-3 in three games while Pickens is at 16-150-0. Both guys can ruin the other guy's day by hogging the big plays and touchdowns, but to me the prices just seem right, and it’s too hard to guess at it in this potentially lower-scoring spot for the Cowboys.

It’s not a week for me to use the Cowboys. Nico Collins ($7,200) would be a very appealing play if we knew he was healthy. I don’t think there’s much doubt that he’ll play, but using him is a bet on him coming right back to full participation. I think that’s a fantastic buy in tournaments, you’re getting massive ceiling at a low ownership, but it’s not going to be a great cash idea in my head. I’ll put him on the list, though, because we do like lower ownership and huge upside in cash too.

Recap

We don’t often want to fade Cowboys games, but this is probably an exception. I’m not going to call the Texans an average defense because of three games. Both teams are at full strength, so there just aren’t any big discounts on the prices.

My favorite idea would be to play Nico Collins with Dak → Pickens or Lamb in a tourney.

I wouldn’t blame anybody for using Collins in cash, but I don’t think I’ll do it myself.

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LATE EDIT

Well I totally missed the fact that Case Keenum is starting for the Bears tonight, not Tyson Bagent. It doesn’t change a whole lot from the below. It’s probably worse for the Bears. Maybe Keenum’s a better game manager as a more experienced guy, but his physical ability at this point has to be less than Bagent.

I don’t think I’d change anything I wrote below really. Less interested in Keenum than Bagent as a play because of the mobility. But the rest still applies. Sorry for the big mistake there!

I started on Thursday with a new approach to the Showdown previews. They were LAME before, and now they’re LESS LAME. We’re going to dig into the non-obvious plays and talk more about how to build lineups with upside rather than just ramming the optimal into stuff hoping to maybe double the money.

The main reason I write these posts, though, is just because it’s fun. Football is a great game to break down. There’s much more you can get into with one game compared to baseball. So let’s do this thing.

Game Environment

If you click the little “show betting line movement” button on the game preview on the app, you’ll see that movement:

Not the prettiest plot, but you’ll be fine. We can get through this.

The big story with this game is that Caleb Williams is out, leaving Tyson Bagent to start at QB. Bagent himself was questionable after a concussion last week, but he’s good to go. We haven’t seen much of Bagent in the regular season, but he’s regarded as a competent backup. He played a good bit in 2023, which was a very long time ago now, but he did fine, and he had a game with 70 rushing yards. The gameplan will be made simple for him and I’d expect a lot of running with Swift and Monangai while they can plus a good bit of quick hitters to Burden and Loveland. But that’s speculation on my part, and I’m not the best guy to be speculating about NFL teams because I only pay attention for half of the year.

The over/under being at 41.5 is low, but that’s what you’ll get with the Eagles and a backup QB on the other side.

Both teams rank near the bottom of the league so far in PROE. Chicago is 26th, Philly is 27th. So we have a run-heavy game while things are neutral.

The Bears have played fast (8th in pace), the Eagles play slow (21st).

This stuff doesn’t matter that much when it’s a one-game slate, but it’s a really good spot for the Eagles offense. Pace-up spot against a bad defense. If the Bears can score with Bagent, it pushes Hurts. If they can’t, it pushes Barkley. One way or the other, the Eagles are getting a boost in this game.

So that’s the “chalky” way to go - playing 4-5 pieces from the Eagles. The “contarian” approach would be to play Bagent with multiple Bears pieces, betting that Bagent can have a decent game and get these Bears skill players to decent results.

Book Based Projections

First thing I wanted to look at was what the books think about Bagent. I’ve said “Bagent” way too many times already, but he’s the key player on this “slate”. I don’t like when people call it a showdown “slate”, because doesn’t “slate” imply multiple games?

The book projection: 29 attempts, 174 yards, 0.9 INT, 1.15 TD, 18 rush yards

Not a very confident projection. But who knows, it’s really hard to do anything with a guy we haven’t seen play real volume in three years.

Here are the implied fantasy point totals from the books:

Eagles

They’ve thrown it 60% of the time this year, -9.5% below expectation.

QB Play

They prefer to take it easy on the Hurts pass attempts. He’s thrown it 25 and 37 times in two games, that’s largely dictated by game script. The most likely outcome is that the Bears don’t end up leading by a ton of points and it’s another pretty low volume game from Hurts. But he’s run it 12 times for 62 yards without a touchdown. But those are coming if they get down to the goal line and use the tush push.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley has 23 opportunities in two games, Tank Bigsby has 16. Barkley played just ten snaps last week and left with a stinger, but he’s good to go for this one. In week one it was 37 snaps to Barkley and six for Bigsby. This isn’t a shared backfield. Playing Bigsby would be a bet on Barkley being limited or getting hurt again. It’s an awesome setup for Barkley. However, he ran just nine routes in week one, so that was not a ton of usage in the pass game. He’s seen four total targets. That could change, and I’m guessing it will come up, but he’s not a CMC type out there running 20+ routes and regularly seeing 5+ targets.

Pass Catchers

DeVonta Smith saw his slot route total come up last week. He ran 40 routes, 12 from the slot, and saw an elite 32.5% target per route last week in a big game. He’s the dude in this offense, and the matchup is soft.

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I really have no idea how much interest my NFL writing garners, and it would be good to know I’m not writing this to nobody. This isn’t about dopamine for me seeing the likes; I really just want to know for sure that I’m not wasting my time on these with like four people caring.

DFS Review

I was right on the cash line, so this was almost exactly a push week for me. I cashed in the giant $2 double up, but not in the $3. That was kind of weird. I should have played head-to-heads instead, I guess. Here’s the lineup I went with:

The locks were Gibbs, Walker, Garrett Wilson, and Parker Washington.

The QB decision was made tougher by Jameis Winston coming off the board due to the weather and the lack of confidence the Giants showed in him during the week. There was talk about them seeking a trade for a QB, which speaks to the fact that they don’t think Winston can hack it. The two options I finished on were Tyler Shough and Kyler Murray. I ended up making the right choice, as Shough threw four touchdowns. He did turn the ball over three times in the fourth quarter as they were playing catch-up, so that ended up being a game-changing difference-maker. But that’s a very good score from the cash QB.

The other question I had was concerning three RBs or two TEs. This is how most of these lineups are going to play out. There were plenty of tight ends projecting well at the price, but I made the decision to not go into the Andrews/Kelce/Schultz plays, and certainly not two of them. Their floors you could argue were fine, but with their current physical abilities, the floor wasn’t there. You do have to build for ceiling in cash. Using two spots to hopefully get 20-25 points isn’t the right way to do that.

That put me on the gross Isaiah Williams play. He was the WR2 for the Jets with Adonai Mitchell out. We figured he wouldn’t do much, and he didn’t, but the price made it work and the route-running was going to be there. It was the only way to get to three RBs. Gibbs smashed, and anybody who didn’t play him is just doing the cash games wrong. Walker was highly owned and scored two touchdowns but didn’t hit the ceiling.

I almost went with Jaylen Warren over Hubbard, but decided to bet on the Panthers offense as a whole over the Steelers. That was wrong, but it’s a good general point if you’re trying to learn how to win money in cash games. The ideal is to jam in three running backs you think will play 75+ of the snaps and get pass-game work.

I do think I played it well, just didn’t get the slight break you need with the secondary plays to double it up again.

So I doubled my money in weeks one and two and pushed in week three. That’s a good start.

Injuries

De’Von Achane has a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season. The Dolphins had one good player, and now they have whatever one less than one is. That leaves Ollie Gordon as the starter. He is a much different back than Achane; he’s a bruiser. He took 17 carries for 41 yards yesterday (5.4 yards per carry). For the season, he has 20 carries for 48 yards (5.1 yards per carry) with just three targets.

Any running back that is thrust into the starting role is a viable option for fantasy leagues. But this is about as bad as that situation can be. The Dolphins have averaged 4.6 yards per play, the 10th-last in the league, and that’s probably going to get worse with Achane out of there.

Jaylen Wright will be a part of the game as well, but he’s another guy that doesn’t have Achane’s pass game chops. I think it’s just going to completely nuke the Dolphins offense. I wouldn’t want to start Gordon in a 12-team league next week at all, but maybe he’ll prove to be very good and find a way to average 4+ yards per carry on 15+ carries per week and add a handful of touchdowns in the mix.

Or maybe the Dolphins sign another RB to take some of the pass-down work. Either way, it’s not a situation to go dump all your FAAB on.

Breece Hall looks like he’ll miss some time after going out with a quad injury. That happened late in the game so we didn’t get an immediate look at the backup plan. But it’s clearly Braelon Allen, who is probably already stashed in most leagues. Allen has gone 19-61-1 on the ground this year and 4-11-0 on five targets through the air. A couple of years ago there were questions about which of these two is better; I think those debates have been settled. But Allen seems to be a competent backup on an offense that isn’t quite as bad as the Dolphins.

We’ll have to see how long they think Hall will miss, but Allen is the better add if available compared to the Dolphins situation.

Those were the only two that look like they’re definitely costing a starter significant time. Justin Jefferson left the game early but it seems like he’s fine for next week. Travis Etienne left with a hamstring, Bucky Irving left with an unspecified injury. There’s no reason right now to think any of those injuries are significant, but we’ll adjust to that during the week four NFL DFS write-up this week.

xFP - Running Backs

Week three xFP leaders:

1. Gibbs 29

2. Bijan 23

3. Love 23

4. Henry 21

5. Taylor 21

6. Kyren 21

7. Jeanty 19

8. Aaron Jones 19

9. Skattebo 18

10. Javonte 18

11. Hubbard 17

12. Warren 17

13. Cook 17

The Cardinals have been impressive. Jacoby Brissett is good enough to get the ball to his weapons. And that’s great news for Jeremiyah Love, who established himself as the RB1 this week. He took 21 carries for 90 yards on the ground and added 5-19-1 through the air. Tyler Allgeier had previously out-carried him, but he took a backseat yesterday with just two carries. There was no reported injury to Allgeier, so maybe they were just easing Love into things and feel good enough about his health here in week three to let him go. Love has averaged 3.9 yards per carry and has 12 targets and ten catches in three games. This was easily the #1 running back in last year’s draft, and they the #3 overall pick to get him, so it might be breakout time there.

Aaron Jones has taken 40 of the 46 RB carries since the Jordan Mason injury. He’s averaged 4.1 yards per carry and has six targets in two games. Two pretty ugly games, too. Week two was in a storm in Chicago, and yesterday was against a decent Bucs defense. Jones has just one rush TD, a lot of his scoring will depend on how good Kyler Murray proves to be, but he has a super valuable role for fantasy leagues while Mason is hurt.

Jaylen Warren gave the Steelers offense a charge yesterday with Rico Dowdle out. Warren went 17-127-0 on the ground and 3-49-0 through the air. He had an 80-yard run called back due to holding, and he tripped on his way to an easy touchdown run as well. This could have easily been a 200+ yard game for Warren with a touchdown. But he averaged 7.5 yards per rush and saw four targets, so he’s a must-start dude if Dowdle is out.

It was generally just good news for the Steelers. Rodgers went for a +0.24 EPA with 292 yards and three touchdowns to get the offense going. They beat the Bengals at home in an exciting game. DK Metcalf went 3-31-1 on five targets. It might have been a change in approach back to Rodgers getting the ball out quickly. But his ADoT was still high at 12 yards. The targets were spread out (Wilson 6, Pittman 5, Metcalf 5, Freiermuth 4, Warren 4, Washington 4).

Cam Skattebo saw 20 carries as the Giants went massively to the run (-22% PROE%). Just three yards per carry and 60 yards with 3-40-0 through the air. He’s a smaller dude who doesn’t seem like a guy who can average a big YPC in the NFL, but it was important to see him get more work in the pass game. They’ll need to do that with a pocket passer there in for Dart, whoever that might end up being.

Winston played bad by the numbers. Nobody wants to see it, he’s as entertaining as they come, but he went -0.24 EPA and 5.4 yards per attempt against the Titans.

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Week 2 was a massacre. The backup plan in the Eagles won, but our main pick, the Buccaneers, lost. Thursday already claimed another popular option: the Falcons smoked the Packers 35-14 at Lambeau. Anyone who used GB is done. Luckily, my survivor pool is double elimination, so I’m still alive in that pool where I used the Bucs. The other pool I participate in is single elimination, and I used the Eagles. So I still have two picks to make this week!

As we can see, chalk lost again.

Quick Thoughts

Biggest spread - Chiefs (-10.5) at Miami

Best Week 3 burn - Chiefs at Miami

Interesting Options - Bills, Lions, Bengals, Jaguars, 49ers

Do not touch - Eagles, 49ers if you can save them, Panthers, Saints, anything sitting around a field goal

Chiefs ownership projections are around 26-30%. Next will be the Lions at 12-15%, the 49ers at 12-15%, and the Seahawks at 7-10%.

A sneaky option to keep the big dogs available is the Giants at home vs the Titans.

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Our first ugly TNF game of the season. It’s the hapless Falcons going into Green Bay. I was surprised to see this one at just a 4.5-point spread.

But there’s a new QB under center for the Falcons as they return their preferred starter Michael Penix Jr. after playing Cooper Rush (-0.64 EPA) and Jack Strand (-0.76 EPA).

So that’s an upgrade and a welcome sign for you Bijan Robinson and Drake London owners. But don’t get your hopes up too high. Penix last year posted a 7.2 YPA with a 9:3 TD:INT and a +0.02 EPA in nine games. He’s quite possibly one of the worst starting QBs in the league, but that would still be a massive step up from what they got in the first couple of weeks.

Falcons Side

It’s pretty tough to judge an offense on two games played by those QBs. They’ve run it 43% of the time despite trailing for most all of their two games. They’re at a -8% PROE, so even accounting for that scoreboard, they haven’t wanted to throw the ball. And why would they, when they have Rush/Strand at QB and Bijan Robinson at running back?

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