Evaluating Early Round Injury Risks
A close look at players with significant injury risks currently going inside the top ten or so rounds in fantasy baseball drafts
I would have eventually gotten to an “injury risk” post, but I do have to give the credit where it’s due. This was inspired by James Anderson (no relation) and Dave McDonald on the RotoWire podcast.
Very good, interesting stuff, and better work than I’ll be doing here. And now, nobody can accuse me of stealing their stuff, because I’ve already admitted to doing it.
What we have at MLBDW that other people don’t have are the fScores (shout out to Tim Kanak, of course). I will be using the fDurability score along with ADP to highlight some early-round players with health issues.
fDurability is a measure basically of how often a player has been on the field for the last three seasons, with proper weighting on recency. It doesn’t give you more credit for averaging seven innings than it does for six innings; we’re focused on avoiding the injured list. And I think that’s the right way to do it, personally.
I’ll go round-by-round (using a 15-team league, so picks 1-15 are round one, picks 16-30 are round two, etc.) through the first dozen rounds or so, pointing out the guys with questionable durability scores, and we’ll go deeper into each guy.
🟢 = low risk, but worth noting since we’re all at least slightly autistic to be doing this
🟡 = moderate risk, fade in drafts where you’re drafting for safety
🔴 = super high risk
Round One Risks
You won’t often find any real injury risk in the first round, because that’s the kind of stuff that pushes them out of the first round. But we do have three guys to mention.
Ronald Acuña Jr. 🟢
Summary of Key Recent Injuries
May 2024: Torn left ACL — season-ending
July 2025: Achilles Inflammation — short IL stint, returned mid-August 2025
I think it’s safe to take the guy, but it’s a different situation than the rest of the stud hitters around him. The concern for me is more about if he’ll ever return to the same levels of athleticism and insane HR + SB production.
Tarik Skubal & Paul Skenes 🟢
Neither guy has any sort of injury in recent memory, but it’s worth pointing out the general truth that pitchers (especially high-velocity guys) get hurt more often than hitters, and when they do get hurt, it takes longer for them to get back.
Round Two Risks
Fernando Tatis Jr. 🟢
Nothing serious happened last year, but a right femoral stress reaction put him on the 60-Day IL in 2024. It’s also worth noting that he just hasn’t been all that great in the last two years with a .270/.356/.464 slash line on a 24.5 PA/HR and a 17% stolen base attempt rate. Okay, fine, that’s really good production, but for your first or second hitter selection on a team that’s getting worse?
Kyle Tucker 🟢
2024: Significant right shin fracture/contusion, cost most of the season
2025:
Right hand hairline fracture (played through)
Left calf strain put him on the IL late in the season
He missed a ton of games in 2024 and played poorly through injury in 2025, but nothing above should make us run away from him in 2026, I don’t think.
Round 3 Risks
Chris Sale 🟡
Recent injuries:
2025: Fractured left ribs — IL stint, returned in August
There hasn’t been anything arm-related since 2023, but he’ll be turning 37 in the first week of the season, and there have been all sorts of things in the past. Multiple rib injuries. You cannot feel great about making Sale your SP1. Not that he doesn’t have a clear path to Cy Young contention, but you do have to say he’s a bigger injury risk than the other guys around him.
Yordan Alvarez 🔴
Right hand fracture (2025): Initially diagnosed as inflammation/strain, later confirmed as a small fracture — missed ~100 games
Rehab setback (July 2025): Hand rehab was halted temporarily due to ongoing soreness
Left ankle sprain (Sept 2025): Significant sprain while scoring — landed back on the IL late and ended his regular season early
A bigger picture look:
2020: Knee surgeries ended season early
2022: Hand inflammation and repeated minor hand issues
2023: Oblique strain requiring IL time
2025: Right hand fracture (most extensive absence) and left ankle sprain late in the season
My first red light! Yordan tanked fantasy seasons last year (🙋). There have been so many different things going on. I suppose we shouldn’t worry about a hand fracture from last year, that’s not something that can linger (unless the guy just has brittle bones or something), but the knee stuff and repeated lower-body injuries… makes you really wonder if he’s worth a round three tag.
Jacob deGrom 🟡
Forearm strains (2018, 2021, 2023)
Shoulder/scapular stress (2022)
Tommy John surgery (2023)
This is about as positive as we’ve been able to feel about deGrom since 2019, but he’s 37 and it feels pretty terrifying to grab him as your SP1 just because he had one clean season. But yeah, it was a beautiful season.
Bryan Woo 🟡
2023: Right forearm inflammation
2024: Right elbow inflammation, strained hamstring
2025: Right pectoral inflammation cost him time at end of season and playoffs
Remember that Woo was not healthy at the beginning of the postseason. He probably would’ve had an IL stint if the regular season weren’t coming to an end after his injury following his September 19th start. It’s comforting that it was a pectoral thing rather than another issue with the elbow, but there were plenty of arm injuries in the past, and this is a guy who is throwing with plenty of velocity. I’m yellow/red on him with that history of elbow stuff, even though he was clean last year.
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