2026 Team Previews: Cincinnati Reds
A detailed fantasy baseball oriented team preview of the 2026 Cincinnati Reds
Full Series Links and Explanation Page Here
Podcast
Intro
That weird-looking potato/hot dog thing in the graphic is apparently Skyline Chili. I couldn’t think of any other good uncopyrighted logo to use for the Reds, so that’s what you get. I don’t know what Skyline Chili is, but it doesn’t look appealing. But it probably is good. A city wouldn’t really let itself become known for bad food, right?
In the podcast version, I rambled about a girl I dated in college whose dad was a big Reds fan. So you can get your intro fix straight from my own vocal cords if that interests you. For now, we’re going right into the fantasy-relevant Reds for 2026.
Hitters
Elly De La Cruz
Age: 24
Pos: SS
EDLC was on his way to a huge year before an injury slowed him down mid-season. He played through a quad issue and struggled in the latter part of the season. Here’s the 30-day rolling roto value plot:
Anything in double-digits is elite fantasy production. Before the All-Star break:
→ .284/.359/.495, 24% K%, 10% BB%, 18 HR, 25 SB
So he was on a 35-45 kind of pace with a .284 batting average. It was elite stuff. But then, in the second half:
→ .236/.303/.363, 28% K%, 9% BB%, 4 HR, 12 SB
The strikeout gains disappeared in that second half, as did the power.
We can and should forgive him for a good amount of those late-season struggles. It’s gotta be immensely hard to hit Major League pitching without two healthy legs. At the same time, I would have been betting on some natural regression to his career averages in that second half, even with health.
Elly’s big league history now:
Even with that second-half crash, he landed more than five points below his career average in strikeout rate. That’s been something we’ve been looking for from Elly for a couple of years now. If he’s truly a mid-20s strikeout guy now, there’s a whole new level for him to unlock.
His primary attribute for fantasy purposes has been the steals. You can see his attempt rate dropped from 51% to 26%. And that was not because of the injury; he was at 28% before the leg stuff started. A 50% attempt rate just isn’t something you do for your whole career, unless that’s the only thing you do as a player. I always expected his steal pace to slow significantly. But a 26% attempt rate with 37 steals is still pretty awesome.
The guy is no steals specialist. He has legit power, and playing in Great American Ballpark gives that a boost. Prior to the injury, he was at a 108.2 EV90.
It held above 107 for the full season with a 117.4 max EV, a 10.2% Brl%, and a .329 xwOBA. The thing holding him back from elite fantasy production has never had anything to do with skills. He has just struck out too much and hit too many balls on the ground to unlock true 30-homer potential.
But he’s come a long way since his first season. In addition to improving strikeout rates, he’s also lowered the ground ball to around 50% the last two seasons.
That’s still not great, but it’s a lot better than 55%. His air pull rate was bad at 9.7% last year, and that’s been a “problem” for him his whole career. I put the word in quotes because I don’t think he’s necessarily concerned about that. Not every player should strive for a high air pull rate. A lot of the time, it’s best to just take what the pitch gives you. Going opposite way and hitting balls at lower launch angles is bad for homers, yes, but it’s good for other things.
For fantasy, you like seeing Elly take some walks and hit some singles. That’s where the steals come from. His raw power turns into 20+ bombs with ease, and any further increase in fly ball rate will push him toward 30.
I don’t think we ever see Elly hit 50 bombs or anything like that, but he has a 30-40-.270 season fully within the range of outcomes. With a clean slate of health in 2026, that kind of season could happen.
Elly is a clear first-rounder. The guys that obviously should go in front of him:
Shohei Ohtani
Aaron Judge
Bobby Witt Jr.
After that, I’m not sure if anybody else is obvious. He’s mixed in with these names:
Juan Soto
Jose Ramirez
Corbin Carroll
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Julio Rodriguez
Hitter-wise, I think that’s the pretty obvious top nine. And I don’t think it’s crazy at all to take Elly at #4. I’m not sure where I’ll end up, and it doesn’t matter that much. He doesn’t quite have the upside of an Acuna Jr., but there’s a good case to be made that he’s a safer pick than those other five guys in that second group.
Projection
617 PA, 89 R, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 34 SB, .261/.336/.481
Ranking
Noelvi Marte
Age: 24
Pos: 3B/OF
Noelvi was a top prospect for the Reds coming up with Elly, but the suspension, injuries, and a lack of production delayed his MLB breakout. But you could say that finally happened in the second half of last season. And his numbers ended up looking pretty nice:
→ 90 GP, .263/.300/.448, 14 HR, 10 SB
That’s about a 25-homer, 17-steal pace with a decent batting average. He brought the K% from a troubling 31% in 2024 to a much better 23.6% in 2025, and added 60 points of batting average as an outgrowth of that.
Let’s get some more numbers on the page:
→ 80.5% Zone-Contact%
→ 51.8% Swing%
→ 9.0% Brl%
→ .242 xBA
→ .310 xwOBA
→ 116.7 max EV
→ 105.0 EV90
→ 46% GB%
→ 12.1% Air Pull%
→ .310 BABIP
We have some issues here. The guy’s discipline sucks, and he wasn’t consistently accessing his upper-level exit velos (the max is very high , but the 90th was nothing special).
It’s a short sample of MLB data, but the fScores would not make you want to draft the guy:
It’s a profile that screams volatility. You’ll have slumps with the guy, but his elite physical tools will turn into some emphatic spike weeks/months as well.
One issue we have is that he doesn’t have a home defensively. I’m sure they want him in the lineup to claim the spoils of those physical tools and to let him develop a bit. But he’s forced into right field defensively, where he could end up being a pretty big liability. That’s not someone they’ll be hyped about putting in the lineup in the midst of an offensive cold spell.
The Ke’Bryan Hayes acquisition takes away any thought of moving Marte back to third if the outfield thing isn’t working out. So he’s going to have to prove that he can play the corner outfield at least decently to get into the 140+ games played range.
So you have a high-risk, high-reward profile with Noelvi. There’s the risk that lands in the ~120 games range, and there’s the risk that his hitting stats don’t end up looking that great because of the volatility that comes with his lower contact rates and heavy swing rates. But the power and speed make it tough to fully fade the guy this year, especially since he still has that 3B eligibility from last year. That position gets thin in a hurry, but I’d probably rather have it filled early than have to roll the dice on a Marte type.
Projection
473 PA, 62 R, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 14 SB, .254/.299/.445
You can see the roto upside in this projection. The 600 PA pace is 25-18-.254. That’s solid. But I don’t see 600 PAs coming, and I’ve already laid out the concerning risk that comes with the pick.
Ranking
Matt McLain
Age: 26
Pos: 2B
McLain was also a part of this 2022-2023 top prospects class for the Reds. I remember getting all jazzed up about Elly, Marte, McLain, and Encarnacion-Strand. So far, only Elly has truly panned out. It’s been tough sledding for McLain since that rookie year:
He missed the whole 2024 season to injury, and came back in 2025 to struggle mightily with the .643 OPS.
He still managed a 15-18 season, which is nice, but the .220/.300 stuff hurt. We were really hoping to see a mid-20s K% rather than a repeat of the 29%. And worse, it came with a poor batted ball profile.
So the fScores look pretty awful:
Only one above-average tool (speed), and he wasn’t all that aggressive on the bases with a 14% attempt rate.
His EV90 was bad at 103.3.
He hit just .217/.289/.341 against righties with a .291 xwOBA. The zone contact rate was poor at 80.2%, and he rarely pulled the ball in the air (10%). There are a lot of issues with McLain, and he’s 26 years old now.
We’re at the point where we can’t project a full season’s worth of playing time. He still has minor league options and plays a replaceable position at second base. If he were an elite defender at shortstop, where it matters more, that would help him stay in the lineup, but it’s not all that difficult to find someone else to play second base if they want him to go back to AAA to work on some offense.
It’s a risky pick, and it’s tough to be optimistic about the kid. The one thing you can say is that he has shown 20-20 ability. The raw power is nothing special, but the home park helps. So with some contact and discipline improvements, he could turn in a 20-20-.250 season. That’d be a smash for his ADP, but I don’t think that’s very likely to happen, and the downside is that he ends up out of the lineup entirely.
Projection
439 PA, 53 R, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 10 SB, .241/.317/.416
Ranking
Sal Stewart
Age: 22
Pos: 1B
Stewart is the Reds’ top prospect on some lists. He’s #1 on our list if you don’t count Chase Burns. And he made a successful Major League debut late last year, so we have very real redraft fantasy relevance for 2026. Let’s hit the fScores first:
Getting to the bigs as a 21-year-old is impressive. And the guy has shown plus abilities in power, hit tool, and discipline. There’s a lot to like. Last year:
He ripped apart AAA and did just fine in those 58 MLB PAs with an .839 OPS. So let’s check out the skills. First, power:
Minors: 107.2 EV90, 113.7 Max, 34% GB%, 28% Air Pull%
Majors: 107.2 EV90, 112.6 Max, 35% GB%, 28% Air Pull%
Remarkable consistency, and very good news for his power potential in 2026 in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league (for homers at least).
How about the speed? He didn’t steal any bags in those 18 games in the Majors, but he had just eight singles and three walks, so there weren’t many opportunities for him. He has a 13% attempt rate in his minor league career, with those 17 steals being his best work last year. He’s not fast, though, with 14th-percentile sprint speed. So you’re hoping for him to be an 8-12 steals guy in the Majors, probably.
The contact stuff isn’t super scary, but it’s also nothing special. In the minors:
79.5% Contact%
82.6% Zone Contact%
In the Majors:
76.1% Contact%
81.8% Zone Contact%
If you have legit power, which it seems like he does, you’ll do just fine as long as you can keep the zone contact about 80%. And he did that comfortably last year. So I don’t think it’s a huge concern, but the right guess is probably a 25-28% K% next year, which will hold the batting average down a bit.
He made ten starts at first base last season and four more at third base. So I suppose he’ll be restricted to only 1B eligibility, unless Hayes gets hurt and he has to fill in there for a while.
The path to playing time in 2026 would be through first base and DH. It’s a mix of Spencer Steer, Stewart, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to get those reps right now. With what Stewart has shown, I think the playing time is a safe bet early on. He could slump his way back to AAA, for sure, but this isn’t a guy who will have to light the world on fire in spring to be in the Opening Day lineup.
I’m pretty into it. I think there’s 30+ bomb potential here with a non-awful batting average, and he could easily find his way into a clean-up role in the Reds lineup if he’s hitting well. It does sniff a little bit like that CES debacle from a couple of years ago, but Stewart is on my radar.
Projection
386 PA, 43 R, 11 HR, 45 RBI, 10 SB, .229/.284/.366
600 PA Projection
600 PA, 67 R, 17 HR, 70 RBI, 15 SB, .229/.284/.366
Ranking
Spencer Steer
Age: 28
Pos: 1B
We have lost the multiple position eligibility with Steer, and that hurts his value right away. He has hit enough to keep his job in the Majors, but those waiting for the breakout fantasy season are still waiting.
Two straight years of a bad batting average with a middling home run total, and he cut 18 steals off his encouraging 2024 total.
The tools have never popped for Steer. And the xBA (.224) and xwOBA (.300) came in poor last year.
His 102.0 EV90 and 108.3 max aren’t getting us excited. He does pull it a lot (23% Air Pull%, and that turns into consistently high HR/Brl marks. In Cincy, he gets to the 20-homer range with those fly balls. He homered 13 times at home last year and eight times on the road, with a home slugging percentage being 90 points higher. But he was under a .240 xBA in both splits
Steer is a 103 wRC+ career hitter playing first base. With Sal Stewart in the mix, he could end up well under this 150 games played mark we’ve seen from him the last couple of years. And he has needed all of that volume to get decent fantasy marks. With the steals drying up last year and without the reliable power and speed, I’m not sure I’ll be drafting Steer at all. There’s more downside than upside, methinks.
Projection
586 PA, 69 R, 21 HR, 72 RBI, 13 SB, .242/.323/.418
Ranking
Tyler Stephenson
Age: 29
Pos: C
Stephenson had two different IL stints last year that limited him to just 88 games played. And the slash line bottomed out. It was a .737 OPS, one of the worst seasons of his career:
13 bombs in 88 games is pretty nice from a catcher, and I think it’s fair to project a drop back to 26% or so in the K% after that 34% spike.
He did seem to sell out for power a bit last year:
→ 14.4% Brl%
→ 17% Air Pull%
→ 38% GB%
→ .225 xBA
→ .321 xwOBA
So he lifted the ball well, but the EV90 wasn’t great at 104.1. I don’t know who Stephenson is at this point. For a long time, he was a high-average, low-power guy. But that flipped last year. Was it because he was hurt? Was it a conscious decision?
The swing rate stayed about the same as what we’ve seen, so I don’t think it was a shift in approach. The bat speed is below average as well, so there are relatively few bright spots in the profile.
Stephenson is the #22 catcher off the board in NFBC drafts, so you do not need to draft this guy in normal leagues. He’s a fine later-round C2 for 10+ bombs and some RBI, but other than that, you can ignore the guy.
Projection
404 PA, 46 R, 16 HR, 48 RBI, 1 SB, .248/.329/.442
Ranking
TJ Friedl
Age: 30
Pos: OF
Terry had stayed healthy last season and went for a decent .742 OPS. He hit 14 bombs and swiped 12 bags. He led off for the Reds 150 times, leading to 82 runs scored. The guy has been an underrated roto fantasy player for a while now, and the pick on him paid off last year.
The 14 homers are a bit surprising when you see the 2.7% Brl%, 107.6 Max EV, and 101.6 EV90:
But he pulls the ball in the air a bunch (16.5% Air Pull, 42% GB%), and GABP rewards him for that. You can see the back-to-back .378 slugging percentages with 27 bombs in his last 237 games. So he’s not killing you in homers even with the lack of raw power.
Surprisingly, nine of those homers came on the road. So it’s not only the home park doing the work for him. His 2024-2025 homers:
That shows you how he does it. Pull the ball and get some backspin on it.
All of that makes him less reliable for another dozen homers. We’ve seen the Marcus Semien progression. If you lose any it of that ability to pull the ball, your homers dry up in a hurry.
But I think it’s fair to say he’s done enough to stay the team’s lead-off man in 2026. If you have some basic skills and lead off a bunch of times, you’ll typically end up with some decent fantasy value. He finished as a top 50 roto outfielder last season, but that was mostly driven by volume.
You’re not going to kick yourself at the end of the year for not having any shares of TJ Friedl. But in a five-outfielder build, he’s a solid contributor, and you can grab him well after pick 250 most of the time. It’s fine.
Projection
510 PA, 65 R, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 10 SB, .248/.347/.396
Ranking
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Age: 29
Pos: 3B
It’s probably a good thing for Hayes to be out of Pittsburgh. The park shift from PNC Park to GABP is a huge positive change for a right-handed hitter. But it probably doesn’t help a guy who is as bad with the bat as Hayes is.
He hit .237/.292/.307 last year with five bombs and 12 steals (152 games). The team splits:
→ with PIT: .238/.281/.293, 2 HR
→ with CIN: .234/.315/.342, 3 HR
So it didn’t matter much. He’s a very bad hitter. Only Javier Baez and Patrick Bailey have a lower OPS than him the last three years among hitters with at least 1,200 PAs.
So I’m not sure why I’m talking about Hayes. At least we’ll know he’ll play a bunch with the Gold Glove defense, and who knows, maybe he can turn in a ten-homer, 15-steal season with 160 games played as a Red.
Projection
459 PA, 50 R, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 9 SB, .253/.304/.376
Ranking
Pitchers
Hunter Greene
Age: 26
The Reds’ rotation could be a very good one if they can stay healthy. Greene missed a bunch of time last year with multiple groin strains. The positive side of that is that it didn’t have to do with his arm. And he was one of the best pitchers in the league when on the bump:
→ 108 IP, 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 31.4% K%, 6.2% BB%, 1.25 HR/9
His career progression:
Hunter Greene Stats by Year
2022: 31% K%, 9% BB%, 1.7 HR/9
2023: 31% K%, 10% BB%, 1.5 HR/9
2024: 28% K%, 9% BB%, 0.7 HR/9
2025: 31% K%, 6% BB%, 1.3 HR/9
He put all three together in 2025. He got the strikeout rate back above 30% while dropping his walk rate three points from where it usually had been, and he landed with a fine HR/9.
The homers are usually going to be an issue for him. He’s a fly ball guy in Great American, but if it's really a sub-7% walk rate guy now, the homers won’t hurt as much because so many of them will be solo shots.
The stuff is terrific, and he keeps getting better. I think Greene has a great shot to win a Cy Young at some point. The big three stats on him last year:
→ 16.8% SwStr%
→ 31.4% Ball%
→ 34.2% GB%
Terrific stuff besides the lack of ground balls, but that’s the price you pay for a higher strikeout rate, and it works nicely for Greene.
The guy has probably a top 50 four-seam fastball of all time. He’s still averaging more than 99mph on the thing, and it went into the stratosphere last season with a 60% (!) strike rate.
The 60% Strike% led the league by a good margin for any individual pitch type:
It’s a sick pitch, and it makes it pretty much impossible for the guy not to succeed. Add on the 121-grade wipeout slider with the 23.6% SwStr%, and you have a stone-cold ace.
The only knock on him is that the ERA might get bloated by another 1.5 HR/9 season. It’s tough to keep the fly balls in the yard in Cincy, and he’s usually giving up fly balls when hitters are putting the bat on the ball.
But he’s one of a short list of guys who I could see winning the Cy Young next year, and I’d like to get my hands on him on several teams.
Projection
187 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 224 SO, 29.1% K%, 7.3% BB%
Ranking
Chase Burns
Age: 23
There are going to be some series in the next several years where Reds pitching just makes life miserable for the opposing team. Greene + Burns is one of the nastiest 1-2’s in the league. They might not spend a whole season healthy at the same time, but while they’re both going, it’s must-watch TV in Cincy.
Burns’ debut season:
→ 8 GS, 43 IP, 4.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 35.6% K%, 8.5% BB%
So yeah, ugly ratios. But a 27% K-BB%! You’re not going to see a repeat of a 4+ ER and a 1.20+ WHIP with a K-BB% above 25%. Maybe he won’t repeat that, but there’s little questioning an elite strikeout rate with the guy. His stuff is electric. The advanced profile from his Major League time last year:
You see the 3.03 JA ERA there and the super-elite 2.18 JA SIERA. On Fangraphs, he landed with a 2.65 FIP, a 2.68 xFIP, and a 2.76 SIERA.
There was plenty of bad luck for the kid last season.
Everything checks out, and honestly, he looks a lot like his teammate Hunter Greene, whom we just sang praises for.
A 99mph fastball with a 13.2% SwStr%, and then a sick 23.3% SwSTr% on the slider. It’s almost the same picture as Greene’s. Maybe the Reds don't want to pitch these guys back-to-back since they’re so similar. Put Lodolo between them in a series to change up the looks.
The biggest worry here is the strained right elbow flexor he had last year. He did return from it, but came back in a bullpen role. So he went for just 109 innings between the minors and Majors last season. Even if he stays healthy, he’s probably maxing out at 140-150, and that drops him a bit in the ranks.
And there are the obvious concerns about whether his arm can hold up. Greene has mostly done it, but we’ve seen a lot of Tommy John action for these young flamethrowers.
What I don’t question is his abilities. I think he’s good for a sub-3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP next year with a K% exceeding 30%. The walks are more up in the air, but he threw plenty of strikes last season, so it’s not too big a concern.
Projection
135 IP, 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 169 SO, 30.0% K%, 8.2% BB%
Ranking
Nick Lodolo
Age: 28
Lodolo did his best work in 2025, particularly in the latter part of the season.
→ 28 GS, 157 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 24% K%, 4.8% BB%, 1.3 HR/9
Like Greene, he really improved the walk rate, dropping it from 7.5% in 2024 to that sub-5% mark last year. He was extremely good from July 1st on:
→ 11 GS, 62 IP, 3.05 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 29% K%, 4.5% BB%, 1.3 HR/9
The JA ERA landed way below three in all of the final three months as the strikeout rate exploded:
Let’s get into the main numbers:
A near 20% K-BB%, a 13.8% SwStr%, a 33.9% Ball%, and a decent 45% GB%! Great stuff. The most important number was probably the 150+ innings. This is a guy who had a bunch of injuries in his past, but it was a mostly clean sheet in 2025, and he’ll enter the 2026 season healthy (and probably their #2 starter if I had to guess).
The pitch mix:
He’s a super-tall lefty, so he has a unique release point that makes it tough on hitters of all kinds. The four-seamer wasn’t anything elite, but it was good enough to set up the nasty curveball and changeup.
The approach is heavy curveball usage against lefties and a four-pitch mix against righties. That’s where the changeup comes in:
That turned into reverse splits:
He struck out righties at a much higher clip and allowed less damage as shown by the WHIP+ (total bases allowed per inning) stat.
I’m still going to be slightly hesitant about the guy’s health.
But what he did in 2025 eases those concerns substantially.
His current ADP (130, SP36) feels like a buy-high. I think he’ll likely take a step back from that strong ERA last year, and I think we need to take it easy on the innings projection with the injury stuff. I think I’ll rank him below consensus, but not much below, because the guy is a very good pitcher. And the pitch mix and command give him a high floor.
Projection
154 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 158 SO, 24.2% K%, 6.0% BB%
Ranking
Andrew Abbott
Age: 26
I have never been an Andrew Abbott guy, but he keeps beating my expectations.
→ 29 GS, 166 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 21.8% K%, 6.3% BB%, 1.03 HR/9
I don’t know how he keeps putting up competitive HR/9 marks. He’s a low-strikeout, high-fly ball lefty in Great American Ballpark. But he’s deceptive enough to make it work, I suppose!
→ SIERA: 4.20
→ xFIP: 4.31
→ FIP: 3.66
The JA ERA lands at 3.90 with a 3.64 JA SIERA. It’s probably confusing and weird to show both of those, but I like it, so it continues.
A 12% SwStr% with the 33% GB%. I just can’t help but thinking he’ll eventually give up like an 18% HR/FB and the ERA will go through the roof. But some guys (see: Trevor Rogers) have the year-in and year-out ability to post low HR/FB marks.
Pitch mix:
Nothing special with the four-seamer. A 29% GB%, and yet still just a .309 xwOBA and seven dingers allowed. His changeup is good, but not great. There isn’t a singular pitch that makes sense of the success. I just don’t get it!
I’ll try to give Abbott more credit than I want to when ranking him, but he’s not a guy you’ll see me drafting. Gotta stick to my guns.
Projection
170 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 153 SO, 21.2% K%, 7.2% BB%
Ranking
Brady Singer
Age: 29
He gave the Reds 32 starts and 170 innings last year while keeping things mostly under control with a 3.98 ERA on a 1.23 WHIP. But he’s not a guy you ever really want to use in fantasy leagues:
He’ll go on a run every once in awhile where he’s dotting corners and getting strikeouts that way, but he’s never been a high whiff guy, and the walk rate is well shy of great. So it’s a low-floor, low-ceiling situation. He was fortunate give up only 19 homers last year (13% HR/FB, 40% GB%). It could end up pretty brutal if that reverts.
He doesn’t have answers against lefties, who posted a .354 xwOBA off of him last year. All of his pitches are average-at-best.
I just don’t see the reason you’d want him except for in the deep points leagues where 150+ innings is valuable by itself. Moving on!
Projection
174 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 170 SO, 22.5% K%, 8.0% BB%
Ranking
Rhett Lowder
Age: 23
An injury cost him all but six innings in the 2025 season. He returned to make one outing on September 13th before the minor league season ended. So his pro innings by year:
→ 2024: 140
→ 2025: 6
That will limit him to probably 80-120 this year. And there’s no guaranteed rotation spot for him in the Majors out of camp this year. I’d imagine he starts in AAA just to get him going again, but we’ll see.
I’m writing him up because Tim likes the guy. You can hear more talk in the prospects preview.
A 117 fControl gets the fERA to 104. He posted a 54% GB% in the minors (small sample). His minor league marks:
He made a very lucky run of things at the end of 2024:
That had some people charged up for him ahead of 2025 before the injury. But a 17% K% usually doesn’t go with a 1.17 ERA, needless to say.
The hope for Lowder is that he turns into a volume guy who keeps the ball in the yard and posts decent ERAs in that way. But I don’t think he has the stuff to get many strikeouts, and I’d rather avoid those types in these years where you don’t even think he’ll offer much volume.
But he’s a fine long-term dynasty buy, I suppose, and that’s mostly what Tim is talking about when he’s on the prospects stuff.
Projection
86 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 75 SO, 19.6% K%, 9.0% BB%