> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # NFL DFS Breakdown: Week Eight - URL: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/nfl-dfs-breakdown-week-eight/ - Published: 2026-10-30T13:24:33.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-30T13:24:33.000Z - Author: Jon Anderson - Tags: Fantasy Football ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fSBv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3677eccc-32c3-414f-a6b1-41a957a2aaf4_2172x724.png) ## Sign up for MLB Data Warehouse Data-First Fantasy Baseball Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. We're on the new site! Still working out the quirks and figuring out how to format everything best. It's a work in progress, but it's going to be great. It's week eight of the NFL season. With some job-searching stuff going on (and progressing very nicely), I'm behind the ball this week. So it might be a bit more brief this week so I can get through all of the games. Good news for ME is that I have a couple of really nice job offers, so my life is coming back together. Thanks to the people who reached out, good to know that some people out there care. I will say right at the top - this article is not very helpful. This is the toughest week I've seen this year for cash. Very few smash spots, lots of injuries that we need clarity on before knowing where to go. I'm 100% confident there is much better DFS content for week eight than what you'll see below. --- # Game Data Four implications above 28 points: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IJZB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd139c2d6-7c8d-4380-af11-83460ef8a60f_968x324.png) The Cowboys clear the field by two points. They’re back at home in a great matchup with the Cardinals. You rarely see a 30.75, and I’d be willing to look at the under there just because it’s such a high number. We saw the Rams really fail at their 33-point implication a couple of weeks ago. A lot has to go right to score 31 points in the NFL, but the Cowboys will be a good place to go for solid DFS plays. The Bills at 28.75\. Lamar Jackson will be back for that one, so it could be a real shootout. Tougher to play the Bills in DFS, though, since so much of the offense goes through Josh Allen, a very expensive QB. The Bengals got the passing game going last week in a win over the Ravens. It looks more run-heavy for them against the Titans as a ten-point favorite, but they’ll be throwing until they get to the big lead, if they ever do. And the Jaguars face a bad Colts team who will be looking to make some trades leading up to the November 10th deadline. But it’s unlikely anything major happens this week, more than a week ahead of the deadline. Their defense was already bad, and it could get worse. The Jags should have the ball plenty in this one, and they’ve been great at moving the ball this year. So the big games are: - ARI/DAL: 54.5 O/U - BUF/BAL: 54.5 O/U - CIN/TEN: 46.5 O/U - JAX/IND: 46.5 O/U - DET/MIN: 46.5 O/U Interesting spot for the Lions. Their elite offense takes on the undefeated Vikings, who have arguably the best defense in the league. It’s not a great spot to pay the big tags for the Lions, but that makes them an appealing tournament offense to go to since the projections won’t be as optimal for them at their prices. Game by game time! --- # Cardinals vs. Cowboys ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKAw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8faa93c-fea5-48d7-a3e6-7c007f98666f_1372x458.png) This is the first game on the list with the rare 1:00pm start in Dallas. Both defenses are bad. The Cardinals grade out at 90, the Cowboys at 88. It’s a good spot for some offense. ### Quarterbacks **Dak Prescott ($6,300)** has a nice floor, and we always like him and these great WRs at home. The Cowboys like to throw it, but it’s not crazy. A +2% PROE shows they just play to how the game is going. In neutral situations, they throw more than most teams, so we think they’ll get ahead with Dak → Lamb & Pickens and then run with Javonte Williams to wind the game down like they did last week against the Eagles. But the Cowboys defense can’t be relied on to actually generate blowouts. The Cardinals have their problems, but they can keep pace a lot of the time, and it’s a good spot for them. I think this one could be a pretty exciting game. So I’m fine with Prescott at $6,300\. We’ll see what cheap QBs we have. I don’t often fal linto this $6K price range at QB, but I’m not averse to it. **Jacoby Brissett ($5,700)** looks pretty bad. Just a 5.7 YPA this year with a -.03 EPA and a 10:6 TD:INT. We know where the ball is going on this offense, but I don’t think Brissett is good enough to trust at $5,700 even in this good matchup. But he’s someone I’d play in a tourney. This is one of the better game environments. Maybe you want a Brissett → McBride → Lamb stack or something like that. ### Running Backs It’s a **Javonte Williams ($7,300)** spot as a big favorite at home against a bad rush defense. But yo, $7,300? He’s averaged just 4.3 yards per carry and has 19 catches in seven games. He’s about a league-average back in a very good offense. So that’s more good than bad, and this is a spot for touchdowns. But I’m not into this price tag. I’ll throw him on the list, but I don’t think I’m getting to that price. Looks like the Cardinals should have **Jeremiyah Love ($5,400)** back, which just makes things super ugly. With Love out, they split carried between Bam Knight and Tyler Allgeier. So it’s a two-back approach every week. Love’s the best guy and has the highest per-snap ceiling, but they haven’t committed to him, and you can’t play anybody from this backfield this week. ### Pass Catchers **CeeDee Lamb ($8,100)** has crossed $8K. Two more touchdowns last week. A 34% target per route, massive season so far for Lamb. The floor is solid, the ceiling is quite good as well - but it is a bit dictated by the other team pushing the Cowboys. If I’m playing a game stack, I’m playing Lamb. And he’s going to be one of the top wide receivers on the board projection-wise, but it’s not quite perfect enough for him to end up at the top of the list at $8,100\. But he could make it into the cash lineup. **George Pickens ($6,600)** is a tough cash play unless Lamb is missing. He’s made big plays, he has ceiling, but Lamb takes too much work away from him. It’s a tourneys-only idea. The Cardinals last three weeks since trading Marvin Harrison: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!94EG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd495a827-cf7c-4f1d-a446-f126e9e06e7a_952x296.png) That trade hasn’t been good at all for Michael Wilson. Bourne, and others, step into Harrison’s routes and earn more targets. But **Trey McBride ($7,400)** hasn’t been phased. 26-230-2 the last three games on more than ten targets per game. You can use him in this spot for sure. He’s probably the best tourney TE on the board. Tougher to get there for cash, but we’ll see. He’s a strong play. Behind McBride and Wilson, it’s been a rotation at the wide receiver position. I think somebody will splash in this game, but it’s too hard to see who it will be other than McBride. ### Recap None of the prices are making me happy. Prescott, Williams, and Lamb are in play. I think Williams is very overpriced, and I’m a little worried about the ceiling for Prescott and Lamb if the Cardinals don’t keep it close at all. It could be an underwhelming game for the Cowboys at home, but I do like the floor on Prescott → Lamb. --- # Falcons vs. Bucs ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_3Tv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F509c9ed1-dfcb-42d4-b7dc-e29aff990e21_1390x456.png) A very good Falcons team takes on the Bucs, who are getting healthier. **Baker Mayfield** came back last week, and they just destroyed the Panthers in that game. They didn’t do that with a big game from Mayfield, it was their defense and run game that put the clamps on. It’ll be a lot tougher against the Falcons. The 45.5-point O/U isn’t great, but it’s a tight spread with two offenses that have been plenty of options for DFS. ### Quarterbacks These aren’t very fantasy-friendly QBs. It’s a middling game environment, probably not a shootout with two good defenses and mediocre quarterback play. So I’m not going to these passers. ### Running Backs **Bijan Robinson ($8,500)** goes up even further in price after not exactly smashing last week. The **Brian Robinson** status matters. He missed last week, leading to 83% of the snaps being played by Bijan. If Brian’s out again, I’m in on Bijan. He’s too good a player not to want to play even at this price if he’s not going to be at risk of giving up touchdowns to the other B-Rob. **Bucky Irving ($6,400)** went off in the first half last week and had a 100+ yard game with two scores. But it’s not great for him this week. The Falcons defense is strong, allowing 3.8 yards per carry. Atlanta also has an offense that can quickly build a lead, which would be bad for Bucky. Not a spot for Irving. ### Pass Catchers **Drake London ($7,000)** remains cheaper than I think he should be. He has a 33% target share with Penix in there. 3.65 yards per route. Tampa’s pass defense has been average this year. I guess the question is about if the Bucs can score points to push more passes onto Penix. It’s not the perfect matchup, but it’s good enough for me to want to play London in cash again at this price. **Kyle Pitts ($4,500)** has 10-82-3 the last two weeks on 12 targets. The touchdowns have been flowing. But his 3.5-yard ADoT and 19% target share keep the floor very low, and the price has come up. Too expensive. We really need to know the status on Egbuka to make any decisions. We did not get a good look on how they’ll play without him last week since they hardly had to throw any passes. I don’t think they’ll dominate this game like they did last week, so there’s real value in the Bucs passing game. Routes last week: - Godwin 10 - Tez Johnson 7 - Ted Hurst 7 - Cade Otton 6 Hurst and Otton were the cash plays last week. Hurst didn’t earn a target on his seven routes, Otton didn’t make a catch. But it was 90% about the volume. They just didn’t have to throw it, so we don’t know. I guess it’s probably still too tough to know who to pick even if Egbuka is out. **Chris Godwin ($4,800)** was the target-earned last week (56% of the few targets they had). So he might be fine, he’s just not a big playmaker at this point. The annoying part was **Tez Johnson ($3,500)** getting really involved and taking away from Hurst and Otton. If Egbuka’s out, there’s value there, but I don’t know who to go to! We’ll wait and see what the projections say before making any statements. ### Recap It’s not a game I’m liking very much, but we need updates on the injury report involving Brian Robinson and Emeka Ebguka. If Brian’s out, I’m happy to get to Bijan. If Egbuka is out, we can try to take a guess at another cheap Bucs pass catcher. More to come on that. --- # Ravens vs. Bills ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zTJD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85f79d2f-f333-4328-ad60-4c9c0d2b42ff_1374x450.png) Game of the week potential. **Lamar Jackson** should be back for this one after he couldn’t suit up against the Bengals. And the Ravens find themselves in last place in this surprising AFC North division. Tough spot for them to get right in Buffalo, but the markets think these teams are evenly matched, giving the Bills just the field-goal advantage at home. ### Quarterbacks **Lamar Jackson ($6,800)** returns. There are still some questions about the ankle health. Will he run like usual? How much does that matter? The O/U went up two points once he was confirmed back in, and even the original line (52.5) was assuming with like 80% certainty (or so) that he'd play. This could be a big one, obviously. It's an exciting NFL game with two potential Super Bowl contenders going at it. Do you jump right back on Lamar? For tourneys, I'd say absolutely. This is a discount on Lamar. He's only $500 more than Dak Prescott, and his ceiling is right there with Josh Allen from here on out. I suppose I'd still rather "wait and see" for cash. Jackson's return does put more on **Josh Allen ($7,700)**. This is the spot to pay the huge tag on Allen. If Jackson is right, this game could go crazy, and Allen's floor is as good as maybe we've ever seen at the QB position. ### Running Backs Two very good and expensive running backs in this great environment. Both run defenses have been pretty good, each allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. **James Cook ($7,900)** is at 5.4 yards per carry, one of the best in the league. He's been one of the best at piling up yards, but he remains limited in his pass game role, and blowouts are not very good for him. Plus, Josh Allen keeps stealing rushing TDs. **Derrick Henry ($7,200)** has not been nearly as efficient as he was in his prime years. Just 3.9 yards per carry for the King, which is weird to see. They can both smash. 100+ yards and a score or two would not be surprising. But the prices remain tough to click on in cash. Cook's going on the list, but I don't suspect I play either guy against these pretty solid rush Ds. ### Pass Catchers **Zay Flowers ($7,200)** is the top play. He's been absolutely crushing even with Tyler Huntley in there. With Lamar back and this game at a 54.5-point total, he's one of the top receivers on the board. The risk for Flowers is the constant day-to-day injury stuff and the fact that he doesn't get a ton of looks when the Ravens are ahead and running the ball effectively. But with Lamar's ankle and Henry's reduced efficiency, I don't see that problem developing this week. This feels pretty close to the perfect spot for Flowers. **DJ Moore ($5,700)** is questionable but will probably suit up for this one. It's been a slow start to the year for him with the health, he's played in just four of the six games and left a couple of them early. Coming off the bye, we have to think he'll be in there at mostly full strength. He has led this team when on the field with a huge 30% TPRR and 2.66 YPRR. Assuming he's healthy, he's in the player pool for sure. His presence also makes all of the other clicks really tough. They spread the ball around behind him, and if he's coming back for a 20%+ target share, there's not enough there to isolate on anybody else. ### Recap It's the QBs and the WR1s for me in this game. --- ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bQ67!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94e35776-4e10-40e8-a6bb-4d92e8213f11_1368x450.png) The Titans played well last week and nearly got a win against the Browns. They have it a lot tougher this week against a Bengals offense that is humming, and a Bengals defense that has been upgraded from last year. Cincy should have the ball plenty and score their points. The run game is always the spot to go to as a ten-point favorite, but it’s a weird mixture of Chase Brown and Perine on that front. I’d rather just play the passing game and hope the Titans can score enough points to keep Burrow hucking it late into the game. ### Quarterbacks Ten point favorite on the Cincy side at home. That makes it tough. $7K for Burrow in a game where they could be taking the air out of the ball in the second half. Just $4,600 in a fine matchup for Cam Ward, but he's not good enough to play, right? Right!? Maybe a tourney shot on Ward with Tate + Chase or something like that in tourneys. ### Running Backs I'd love to play **Chase Brown ($6,300)** in a spot like this. But not after what's happened the last few games. He's barely outdone Semaje Perine in carries, and Perine has been way better with the football. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-116.png) I don't think either of those things continues, but it's more than enough to fade Brown this week. He's been saved by a bunch of targets in some sports where they're down Chase or Higgins and playing catchup, but that's not going to help him this week with the big two healthy and the spread being what it is. **Tony Pollard ($5,800)**, oh man. The play of the week last week. But now he's here with Tyjae Spears probably returning and being a big underdog. I don't think you chase that performance from last week. ### Pass Catchers **Tee Higgins ($6,700)** continues to outplay **Ja'Marr Chase ($7,700)**. The price gap has been around $2K this year, but the gap is closing and we're down to just a $1K difference. I don't know if something is wrong with Chase, but one thing a lot of people haven't realized over the years is that these two put up pretty similar stats when they're both healthy. The numbers from 2026: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-117.png) Higgins has been better in everything. You'd still take Chase over Higgins in season long ranks, but for DFS we have to like the $6,700 on Higgins more than the $7,700 on Chase, right? Higgins has nine more points scored than Chase, and that's with him out there as an injured decoy before their bye week. I'd prefer Chase for tourneys, though. The lower output from him this year should be bringing the ownership down a bit, and we have to believe he still has every bit of the upside. But overall, do you pay the tag for either guy as a ten-point favorite? Maybe. The Bengals like to throw, I don't think a two-touchdown lead will have them running it 80% of the time. But we like it more with big name receivers when we think it could be 28-28 in the fourth quarter. **Carnell Tate ($5,200)** has played 82% of the snaps and has 82 DraftKings points in his seven games. Big 27% target share, 27% TPRR, 2.2 YPRR. Very good player, and he's syncing up with Ward. I think it's a fine play. It's certainly a pass-volume-up situation for the Titans as they'll have to at least try to keep pace with the Bengals elite offensive attack. But you're hitching your wagon to Cam Ward and his -0.13 EPA and 5.6 YPA with that play. The price is low enough to consider it, though. ### Recap Tough spot to pull on Bengals as a ten-point favorite. They're not entirely off my board, but the prices don't seem optimal since the game has a good shot of being a blowout. **Carnell Tate ($5,200)** is probably my favorite play in the game. --- # Browns vs. Steelers ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-AZP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74e26737-6286-4843-bad5-8c344bb9997b_1366x450.png) A battle for first place in Pittsburgh. These games are usually ugly, and that’s the projection with the 39.5-point total we’re seeing. The first game, in Cleveland, went 27-24 in favor of the Browns. So it’s pretty bold to have this 39.5-point total. I think there might be some plays to be had. ### Quarterbacks Both QBs have played some good ball; better than expected. But no, we don't use Watson or Rodgers in a 39.5-point total in this Browns/Steelers series that is usually pretty ugly in Pittsburgh. ### Running Backs **Jaylen Warren ($6,600)** is one of the best backs in the league. But Rico Dowdle is back. And they're happy to get him involved even though he's been so outplayed by Warren. Last two weeks: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-118.png) Warren's taking 67% of the carries, but Dowdle's been pesky enough with his ten targets and 23 carries (plus good efficiency lately) for Warren to go back to tourneys-only. **Quinshon Judkins ($5,500)** had a nice game against the Steelers the first time. But overall, he's not a great click. Just 3.5 yards per carry this year and 19 receptions in six games. ### Pass Catchers **Germie Bernard ($4,900)** disappointed in game two as the WR2 for the team. Just 3-27-0 on five targets last week. The Steelers are getting back to the run-heavy approach with the success they've gotten from Warren. Rodgers has gotten the job done, but he's still not very good efficiency-wise. So with this total and the Browns unlikely to force the Steelers into 40+ attempts, it's not right. Maybe that's short-selling Bernard. He has run near the max number of routes the last two weeks without Pittman and Wilson: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-119.png) And a 23% TPRR is very solid. They're short targets, and he doesn't profile as a high-usage red zone target. So at $4,900 I'm probably off of it. And it's not a spot for DK Metcalf or anybody else, I don't think. The Browns side isn't doing it for me, either. **KC Concepcion ($4,700)** does bring a solid floor and he had a huge game last week. But the price is on the climb, and the projection is at just 11.2 points. That's not for me. ### Recap There's a lot of juice on this slate, and I don't think anything is worth the squeeze in this probably low-scoring affair. --- # Vikings vs. Lions ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PIgn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F11fb02b0-1d53-4db2-aef9-1062f7f2e207_1384x454.png) A low implication on the Lions for a home game. The Vikings have a 113 defense grade and put all kinds of pressure on the opposing offense. Jared Goff has fantastic stats when he’s under pressure, and he’ll be under pressure this week. That’s how the Vikings play, they blitz more than anybody. I think it’s a good idea to play some Lions stacks in tourneys since people will be wary of the matchup and the ownership will be lower than normal. But the matchup vs. Minnesota isn’t the spot to play expensive players in cash. ### Quarterbacks The Vikings have allowed 4.3 yards per play, the second-best in the league (SEA). 6.1 yards per pass, 4.2 yards per carry. It's really tough for Jared Goff and company, and there are no price discounts with how many points they've scored. **Kyler Murray ($5,600)** finds himself in the ideal matchup against the Lions secondary in the dome. But man, how can you trust that guy? 6.55 yards per attempt this year with a 3:2 TD:INT on 124 attempts. It's ugly. But he's got his weapons back. If there's a spot to use Murray, it's probably this one. He's run 15 times for 90 yards the last two games, so he makes up for some of the passing woes with that. If the Lions are able to score against the tough defense, Murray will probably do fine. He's obviously a lot better with a healthy Justin Jefferson, which he hasn't had every time this year. So I'm throwing him on the list. I just wish the price were still at $5,200. ### Running Backs **Aaron Jones** is very questionable. He's projecting as IN, which would take him and **Jordan Mason ($5,700)** off the board. But if he can't go, Mason gets into the picture as a guy who should play most of the snaps and get 80%+ of the carries. He came back last week and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. So yeah, that's a potential play, but we need Jones to be out. **Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,500)**... probably not this week, right? If anybody can do it, it's Gibbs. But paying $9,500 is tough even in good matchups. Jonathan Taylor had some success against the Vikings earlier this year with 19 points in that game. Again, I won't be surprised if Gibbs drops another 30-ball, but I don't want to pay this price in one of the tougher matchups you can have. His projection is still 26 points, though... so I'd go there in tourneys for the upside without the ownership. But not for cash this week, there are plenty of other expensive high-upside options for us. ### Pass Catchers **Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000)** is projecting at 19 points. That's the #5 WR projection. We have Chase/Lamb/Flowers/Nacua all projecting better. I'll say again that Goff is very good under pressure, and the quick-hitters work for St. Brown. So I guess I like this idea better than Gibbs if you want to get some Lions exposure, but it still feels more for tourneys than for cash. **Jameson Williams ($6,000)** and **Sam LaPorta ($5,100)** both have had very good games, but they're up-and-down. And they both benefit from the high-efficiency Lions offense that we can't count on this week. I'm off both. **Justin Jefferson ($7,100)** has been limited a bit by Murray's play. This is a good spot to get him going. He projects around 18 points. I wish I could be more confident in Murray as a passer. The projection doesn't flag that we should prioritize him, but he's a great tourney play in tandem with Gibbs or St. Brown if you're doing that. If it's a shootout, Jefferson will have a big one. ### Recap Lots of unknown. Which is the better side? The Lions elite offense or the Vikings elite defense? I think it's still a great game for tourneys, but I'm stopping short on everybody for my single cash lineup. DFS cash is a price game. You want everything being right to make these plays, and nothing is exactly right. But maybe we just need to take a stand in cash to differentiate the lineup a little bit! I've been hurt by being too similar to everybody else in recent weeks, and the Murray to Jefferson connection could be a stack worth pursuing. --- # Colts vs. Jaguars ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pUSY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3352051f-463e-44a9-bee5-31a2ee23c323_1378x448.png) Lots of trade rumors with these two teams. The Colts could sell a ton of dudes, and **Brian Thomas** has been rumored as well. But the deadline, again, isn’t until after week nine. So the rosters could look the same this week. We are on **Jonathan Taylor** watch. If they're going to trade him, then he might just not play in this one to save him for that trade. That's a story to watch closely. The Colts already started their firesale, shipping their best o-lineman to the Seahawks. So that brings down their offense even if there aren't more trades this week. Good spot for the Jags, bad spot for the Colts. Jacksonville should handle this one, putting some extra projection boost onto their running game. ### Quarterbacks **Trevor Lawrence ($6,200)** won't have to do a ton in this one if the game goes how we think it will. That makes him a tough play and the projection is lower than usual even against this soft defense. ### Running Backs Is it time to play **Bhayshul Tuten ($5,900)?** The Colts have allowed 4.8 yards per carry. They are one of the worst defenses in the league, and it's not getting any better. The Jags were off last week as they finally got to escape Europe. The two games over there: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-120.png) It's Tuten time! 62% of snaps, 41 carries to 18 for the backups. But only 3.3 yards per carry and seven targets? Surprising lack of efficiency. He's better than that, and this is a spot for him to really make a statement. He projects for 16 points, which is very good. I could see a huge game for the guy, and I really like the price. I'm in. So if Jonathan Taylor isn't active for this game for whatever reason, we have a potential auto-play in **Seth McGowan ($4,300)**. He got pretty involved last week as maybe they were testing him to see if he could handle the load, or maybe just preserving JT for a trade. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-122.png) He's a very good athlete and has averaged the same YPC (4.2) as JT this year. Again, that's an auto-play if Taylor doesn't go. ### Pass Catchers **Parker Washington ($6,500)** still isn't priced where he should be. It's not a shootout game, probably, so that hurts. But his 26% target share and 2.6 yards per carry are very, very good. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-121.png) He's the man. Better in a potential shootout, but if the lineup pushes me to a $6,500 WR, I'm down for P-Wash even though we do expect the Jaguars to be very run-heavy in this game. Colts side.. it's too messy to speculate. The Jaguars defense is quite good, and nobody is playing well on that side of the ball. Even with Tyler Warren missing time lately, nobody has stood out. **Josh Downs** wants a trade, the QB play has been awful. No plays on the Colts side. ### Recap It's probably just Tuten getting me interested. The projection doesn't put him as a high-priority play, but I might just go for it. It's a fantastic spot for the Jags rushing game. --- # Raiders vs. Jets ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!q6fa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4c628b5b-9161-4c77-ad7f-0ab39f7ec731_1388x450.png) I'll give myself some relief here. It's not a horrible total at 45.5 points, but I don't see anything in the projections to signal that we should care about this game. **Breece Hall** should returns, taking the Hall/Allen stuff out of consideration. The Raiders are close to going to Mendoza, so that could muddy things up. **Ashton Jeanty** gets high value touches all day, but he's been one of the worst runners in the league. **Brock Bowers ($7,600)** is the best player in the game, but at $7,600 in this game with a Q tag, can't do that. And **Garrett Wilson** just disappears sometimes with the QB play and their overall offensive volatility. No Raiders or Jets for me. # Chargers vs. Rams ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v8Kq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F940d927d-cae7-41e5-a010-b83039fe0f52_1372x448.png) I thought this one might be Rams -10 or so, but they'll play at home as a 6.5-point favorite against the Chargers. The Rams defense grades very well, and the Chargers offense does not. The Rams maybe aren't the offensive juggernaut we thought they were. They're missing Davante Adams and haven't gotten a repeat MVP type performance from Stafford so far. ### Quarterbacks It's a no go on either QB, that much is clear. $6,400 for Stafford when Dak is $6,300 - that doesn't make sense for cash. And Justin Herbert has somehow averaged just 12.1 DraftKings points per week, pretty wild stuff. ### Running Backs The Rams running back room is in a good spot, but the usage has come closer and the prices are tough. - **Kyren Williams $7,500** - **Blake Corum $5,000** The Chargers run defense is about average in yards per carry, so it's not a total smash spot, but we do like Kyren and Corum as favorites at home. But look at the last three games: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-143.png) They're getting Corum going again. The times when they tend to go heavily on Kyren are in tight games, and there's a good chance the Rams get out to a bigger lead this week. The Chargers are still running at three-back committee. Opportunities the last two games: Hampton 26, Vidal 21, Mitchell 13\. Unusable backfield. ### Pass Catchers **Puka Nacua ($8,600)** is in play every week. The way the season has gone, he hasn't gotten his price up to the $9,500 range where we'd be balking at it. Some injury stuff has made me a little wary on him lately, but he's got a clean sheet this week and should be the feature player in this attack. After being questionable last week, he played 85% of snaps and went 8-68-1 on 10 targets. He's a great play once again. Here's what it looked like last week without Adams: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/10/image-144.png) It's Puka and Kyren through the air, and then an unpredictable mash-up of tight ends behind him. Parkinson is questionable, which would be good for **Tyler Higbee ($3,800).** So I like Puka a bunch, and I'd be fine with playing Higbee again if Parkinson is out. On the Chargers side, it's just too tough. They've played so poorly. **Ladd McConkey ($5,300)** is really cheap but still on a questionable tag. But coming off of a bye week, you'd think he'd be ready to go for this one. Even when on the field this year, he hasn't been a volume monster with a 20% TPRR, but at the same time, he's been playing injured for at least a few games. So I don't hate McConkey, but I don't think we need him. ### Recap Not a ton to like in this game. Nacua + Higbee are the plays I'd consider the most. --- # Chiefs vs. Broncos ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GJDr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7c167f3-b6b8-4caf-9358-a93d60ec0036_1384x450.png) We don't like playing dudes in Denver. The Chiefs dropped a turbo dud in Seattle last week, and it only gets marginally easier this week in Denver against this 113-grade defense in the thin air. A 40.5-point total, I'm not seeing much to like. ### Quarterbacks **Bo Nix ($5,100)** had a big game last week, but that was because of a defensive lapse that had him running untouched for a 60 yard touchdown and another screen pass that went for a long touchdown. So it wasn't Nix suddenly playing well, and the Chiefs are a pretty good defense. **Patrick Mahomes ($6,000)** has been tough to play with the run-heavy Chiefs, and it's not a spot for him this week obviously. ### Running Backs **Kenneth Walker ($8,800)** showed that he's not bullet proof last week as the Seahawks shut him down. Now he's $8,800 in another tough matchup. He's the #3 projected RB, but at $8,800 I'd definitely rather go to other options (Bijan or a cheaper back in a better matchup) this week. ### Pass Catchers **Rashee Rice ($6,400)** could return for this game. That would thin out the Chiefs WR options, and we haven't gotten many good games from that group anyways. **Xavier Worthy** and **Travis Kelce**, but both guys have shown low floors, and this isn't likely to be a high-volume, high-success game for the Chiefs. We have **Jaylen Waddle** questionable. Him missing would open up a good bit of work. **Courtland Sutton ($4,700)** would be a better play, and maybe **Evan Engram ($3,200)** would enter the tight end pool. We'll have to wait and see how the projections adjust if Waddle is ruled out, but right now we're projecting him IN. Or you could do a real ugly punt with **Marvin Mims ($3,400)**. ### Recap Overall, I just don't see it for cash. The total is so low and we rarely get big offensive games in Denver. --- # Patriots vs. Dolphins ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DLxb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb10e097f-a7dc-45ac-9517-0d5958df421d_1378x462.png) Last game of the slate. A strange 4:25 start time in Miami. The Patriots should win the game as the seven-point favorite. They've played well this year, the Dolphins needless to say have not. The Dolphins defense grade is 93, so the Patriots are in a fine spot. **AJ Brown** popped up on the injury report late, which could open up some value. But nobody really established themselves behind him when he missed games earlier this year. ### Quarterbacks **Drake Maye ($6,500)** has been very good after a slow start. Huge +0.46 EPA, 8.9 YPA, and a 12:2 TD:INT in his last four games. He's a solid play this week for floor, but probably not a huge ceiling outcome with the Dolphins not scoring a ton of points and maybe missing AJ Brown, or at least not having him at 100%. **Malik Willis ($4,900)** doesn't get there in projection (15.4 points), but he has been running, and he's thrown for some more yardage in recent weeks. It's not a great matchup, but he's doing enough to get me to start thinking about it. A $4,900 QB makes the rest of the lineup a lot easier, but he's not going to be near the projected optimal lineup. ### Running Backs **TreVeyon Henderson** is questionable again. If he can't go, it's a good spot for **Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600)**. They've given **Corey Kiner** 21 carries the last three games, though. So it's no guarantee that Stevenson gets his 20+ touches if Henderson does miss. But that price is nice, and this matchup is fantastic. So I like Stevenson if Henderson misses. **Ollie Gordon ($5,700)** has been a beast, averging 4.8 yards per carry and going 69-332-4 in his last four games. It's still kinda thin, though. The floor is so low with the Dolphins, the Patriots defense is above-average, and Gordon doesn't have a high floor of targets to fall back on if the rushing stuff doesn't play out. Too thin on Gordon, but I think he's a pretty decent RB2 for season long leagues. ### Pass Catchers Maybe you can get into **DeMario Douglas ($4,400)** and **Hunter Henry ($4,300)** is Brown can't suit up. Remember that they lost Doubs a couple of weeks ago, so the targets would have to go primarily to these two. I'm putting them both on the list, but we won't know about Brown until potentially Sunday afternoon. ### Recap **Drake Maye** is interesting, and Douglas and Henry would be in play if we know ahead of the slate that Brown won't play. The best play I think would be Rhamondre Stevenson is Henderson misses. But we need the final injury report to make decisions, and it might not be clear enough before 1:00 on Sunday for us to play any of these conditional guys. --- # Player Pool Tough week. I had to go a bit quicker through each game, and the injury stuff is really important and unclear right now. So this is a lineup we shouldn't finalize until Sunday morning. And I hate these weeks, because I'm not the type to sit on my computer and sweat injury updates on Sunday mornings. I'm a real guy just doing this stuff for fun. But here's what we have. ### Quarterbacks 1. Josh Allen $7,700 2. Kyler Murray $5,600 3. Dak Prescott $6,300 4. Lamar Jackson $6,800 5. Drake Maye $6,500 6. Malik Willis $4,900 7. Jacoby Brissett $5,700 We do not have a good cheap option at QB. Geno Smith and Jacoby Brissett are the two in the low-$5K range that project decently. But I'm not trying to play those low-floor options. I could get a little risky and punt it with Willis, just hoping we get those 4-6 rushing points, 150+ yards passing, and a couple of touchdowns for him to get there. But you're risking like a nine-point game in your QB slot, which is tough to overcome. The top value in the projections is **Dak Prescott** in that superb game environment in Dallas. Prescott + Lamb is a decent way to start. But I'll be letting the rest of the lineup dictate my QB choice. ### Running Backs 1. Bijan Robinson $8,500 2. Jordan Mason $5,700 *if Aaron Jones is out* 3. James Cook $7,900 4. Jahmyr Gibbs $9,500 5. Rhamondre Stevenson $5,600 *if Henderson is out* 6. Bhayshul Tuten $5,900 7. Derrick Henry $7,200 8. Chase Brown $6,300 9. Seth McGowan $4,300 *if Taylor doesn't play* The projections are really liking **Chase Brown**, but that assumes that Perine goes back to the backseat, where he hasn't been the last two games. You can't deny that spot, though. Big favorite against the Titans. The stud pick of the week is probably **Bijan Robinson** at $8,500 - but I'd be way more likely to hit that button if Brian Robinson is out. No clear first-click plays at RB this week. It's a pretty tough week. **Bhayshul Tuten** might be my conviction play. The floor isn't super great. Other guys get involved, Lawrence takes some rushing TDs away... I hope that TreVeyon Henderson can't go, that opens up Stevenson as a very good play at $5,600\. He projects pretty well even with Henderson taking some. ### Wide Receivers 1. Puka Nacua $8,600 2. DJ Moore $5,700 3. Zay Flowers $7,200 4. Carnell Tate $5,200 5. Drake London $7,000 6. CeeDee Lamb $8,100 7. Tee Higgins $6,700 8. DeMario Douglas $4,400 *if Brown misses* 9. Marvin Mims $3,400 *if Waddle is out* 10. Justin Jefferson $7,100 11. Chris Godwin $4,800 12. Parker Washington $6,500 If there's a "first click" play, it's **Nacua**. He is going to see a 35%+ TPRR with Adams out and he's seemingly a lock for 10+ targets. Plus he's just elite. So I'm happy to start my lineup with that one. **Zay Flowers** is in an optimal spot, and **Tee Higgins** is also looking better and better every week while still being in the $6Ks. I like **Carnell Tate**, but that's a lot of risk driven by the Titans offense. It's just a brutal freaking week for cash. ### Tight Ends 1. Trey McBride $7,400 2. Cade Otton $3,400 *if Egbuka can't go* 3. Tyler Higbee $3,800 *only if Parkinson is out* 4. Evan Engram $3,200 *if Waddle misses* 5. Brenton Strange $4,000 6. Mark Andrews $3,400 Nothing great here, either! Man this sucks! **Mark Andrews ($3,400)** projects pretty well since we assume the Ravens throw it a good bit against the Bills. He does have a solid 22% TPRR the last five games. I guess he's fine, and we like the $3,400 price tag a lot. So I overlooked him more than I should have. McBride is the best play, but I don't see how I can find the salary. We'll see. I really have no idea how to start this lineup, but I think I will by Sunday morning. ### Defenses 1. Broncos $2,300 2. Lions $2,700 3. Steelers $3,300 4. Browns $2,600 --- # The Lineup I'm not helping anybody this week. I know it. This is a trash article. But I can at least tell you what the projections like at this point: **QB: Dak Prescott $6,300** **RB: Chase Brown $6,300** **RB: Jahmyr Gibbs $9,500** **WR: Malik Washington $4,400** **WR: Puka Nacua $8,600** **WR: Tee Higgins $6,700** **TE: Charlie Kolar $2,500** **FLEX: Mark Andrews $3,400** **DST: Broncos $2,300** Two dusty TE plays and paying 19% of the salary to Gibbs in the toughest matchup of the year. I'm throwing my hands up, bro. I might not even play cash this week. But I hope this wasn't a complete waste of time.