2025 Flag Plants & Predictions
I deliver my conviction predictions for the 2025 season
We are ready to get started! The 2025 regular season is just two days away. I haven’t posted in a while, but your inbox will soon be filling up daily with stuff from me.
For my final pre-season article, I wanted to once again hammer my conviction takes. There are seven flag plants below with details on each. I could have generated more, but these are the seven that stood out most to me in my months of research.
I will also give my division winners and awards picks at the bottom. Let’s get this season started already!
Drew Rasmussen Is An All-Star
We have not seen much of Rasmussen lately. He threw just 45 MLB innings in 2023 and then 29 more in 2024 with his third elbow surgery in between those. But in those innings it’s a 28% K% with a 5.8% BB% and a 0.25 HR/9. That’s a deadly trio of stats.
Maybe the elbow won’t hold up, and maybe that 73 inning sample is misleading, but man do I want to start Rasmussen on my fantasy team when he’s in there for the Rays.
You might not get a single quality start, but I feel pretty good about getting some sparkling ratios from the guy, for however long it can last.
Xavier Edwards Sucks
I have been on the sell side of this guy all offseason. And yeah, I could be wrong. He limits the strikeout and hits a ton of line drives, and that gets him on base enough to run wild on the basepaths.
But we’re talking about a guy at the bottom of the list in the MLB in terms of power. He’s so dependent on getting to the optimal launch angles, that I think there is a ton of room for failure.
I’m not going to be surprised if pitchers exploit him a bit this year and you end up with a pretty disappointing season in the batting average & on-base percetnage department.
The good news [for fantasy] is that it would take a whole lot to get him out of the lineup. And he absolutely will steal bases when he gets on. I’m just selling the projection that he can hit .280 and steal 40+ bags.
The Braves and Rangers Bounce Back
If I was targeting any specific teams during draft season, it was these two. Both of these teams had massive 2023 seasons. The Braves were setting offensive records while the Rangers were on their way to the World Series.
Both teams disappointed last year. There were injuries and down-years all over the place.
I’m buying back in on both teams. I think the Braves run away with the NL East. I’m not really in the business of World Series predictions, since anything can happen in the playoffs, but if Atlanta gets and stays mostly healthy for the postseason, they’re going to be incredibly tough to beat, even for the Dodgers.
I don’t feel as great about the Rangers, but I do like their chances of winning that division. The Astros are not what they used to be, and the Rangers should have a well above average offense. And that pitching staff has loads of upside with guys like deGrom and Rocker.
Twins Young Studs Take Over
There are five Twins SPs I love for 2025. Two of them have been sent to AAA.
David Festa and Zebby Matthews are both extremely impressive to me. I’ve written a lot about both of them this off-season, so I don’t find it necessary to do that again now.
Festa has all the makings of a very good big league starter. The minor league numbers are elite, he has the fastball and the secondaries you need compete in the Majors. I think he’s just a few tweaks away from being a stud.
Matthews seems to have that George Kirby ability to fill up the zone at a ridiculous rate without getting hit hard. The command is special, he’s shown the ability to get whiffs at the same time. Most of the thing with strike-throwers, you see strikeout rates below 22% and that often turns into pretty poor results since you’re allowing so many balls in play. Matthewas has the stuff to generate a mid-20s K%, and that makes him a very appealing fantasy pitcher.
Rookie Hitters Disappoint Again
Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw, and Cam Smith are the big prospect names that have made their teams out of camp. Guys like Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo, and many others are looking to make their debuts pretty early on this season.
There will be some exciting moments, and maybe one or two of them turn in an effective big league season. But I would not be betting on any of these guys. Going from the minors to the Majors is no joke. We usually see an extended adjustment period.
None of the skills on these guys floor me, either. I’ll admit to not knowing a ton about the prospect game. I’m no scout, but I don’t think any of these guys are like “once in a generation” talent.
When in doubt (and we’re always in doubt about brand new players), expect to be disappointed with hitters getting their first cracks at Major League pitching.
The other problem is that teams don’t always stick with these guys when they’re struggling. They want to win games right now, so they can’t always dedicate a starting spot to the rookie trying to figure it out. We’ll surely see a handful of guys get a shot for a few weeks, not being doing well, and then getting sent back down to AAA to work on some stuff.
Sophomore Hitters Go Off
There appears to be a huge benefit to getting through your first few months at the MLB level. We have a foursome of uber-talented hitters who got their first taste of the Majors last year with mixed results. Wyatt Langford, James Wood, Lawrence Butler, and Junior Caminero all have the skills and experience levels now to post huge numbers this year, and I’m very much buying all four.
Spencer Schwellenbach Goes Next Level
Every time I see the guy, I feel better about him. He has great stuff, spectacular command, and a deep mix of pitches to use. Throwing as many innings as he did last year and getting that initial Major League experience has set him up to compete for a Cy Young Award this year. I’m all in!
Division Predictions
NL East
Braves
Phillies
Mets
Nationals
Marlins
NL Central
Cubs
Reds
Brewers
Pirates
Cardials
NL West
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Giants
Padres
Rockies
AL East
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Orioles
Blue Jays
AL Central
Twins
Guardians
Royals
Tigers
White Sox
AL West
Rangers
Astros
Mariners
Angels
Athletics
I’m not buying the Athletics thing. While the pitching staff has improved, it’s still bad. And I’m pretty down on Brent Rooker overall.
Awards
Predicting awards is pretty stupid, but here’s something for you to chew on.
NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani (+170), Jackson Chourio (+3500)
Sleeper: Seiya Suzuki (+10000)
NL Cy Young: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+2500)
Sleeper: Cristopher Sanchez (+2500)
AL MVP: Yordan Alvarez (+600)
Sleeper: Mike Trout (+1600), Wyatt Langford (+4000)
AL Cy Young: Garrett Crochet (+450)
Sleeper: Bryan Woo (+3500)
And now we go into season mode! Projections, bets, slate previews, dashboards, reports, and so much will start flowing very, very soon!
Let’s bet your Pirates vs my Cardinals. Whoever finishes better wins. #flagplant