2026 Team Previews: Boston Red Sox
A detailed fantasy baseball oriented team preview of the 2026 Boston Red Sox
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Podcast
Intro
There hasn’t been much noise out of Boston lately. They made the playoffs last year, but were dismissed by the Yankees in an entertaining series. It’s been since 2018 that they’ve won the AL East!
And now they’ve lost both Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman, albeit in very different fashions. The offense is a question mark for 2026, no doubt about it. But I don’t think they’re going to be an awful unit, and the pitching staff they have is one of the best in the game.
So I’d expect some mighty competitive baseball to be played in Boston this year. And if they get the big step forward from Roman Anthony and another healthy season from Trevor Story, they could absolutely win a bunch of games. Let’s break it down.
Hitters
Roman Anthony
Age: 21
Pos: OF
Anthony ended up as the game’s #1 overall prospect prior to his debut last year. And he had a strange rookie year. In the box score, he was quite effective:
An .859 OPS for a 21-year-old in his first 300 MLB PAs is impressive. They wasted no time getting him into a prominent spot in the lineup. He never hit lower than 5th, eventually settling in as their lead-off hitter. But he missed most of September after an oblique strain in early September. That shouldn’t be a concern for us in 2026, but it did cost him an extra month of valuable experience.
Let’s focus on the minor league career for a bit first. The guy rapidly ascended through the minor leagues. He posted a .940 OPS in AAA before he could legally drink. In five years, people are going to look at the guy and be really surprised by how young he still is.
We’re mostly focused on the short term here, and there are some concerns about him repeating that production in 2026. We saw the high K% already. He came in with a low 81% Zone Contact% on a very low 37% Swing%. That’s not a great combination. He’s taking strikes and whiffing at a higher rate than you’d like.
You see the .404 BABIP last year. That was the second-highest in the league (Jonathan Aranda at .409). He has elite raw power, so he hits the ball hard. That boosts BABIP, but he’s not going to repeat a .400 mark. The highest marks in the league you’re typically seeing is around .360. Aaron Judge, the gold standard, has gone .340, .300, .367, and .376 the last four years. So we’re going to lose a bunch of batting average points on Anthony next year.
About that raw power, though:
→ Max: 113.7
→ 90th: 107.4
→ Average: 89.1
It’s very good. He went for a sick 15.5% Brl% despite a high 51% GB%. That’s good news and bad news. Ground balls are a problem for him, but it does mean that he has all sorts of barrel rate upside if/when he gets that number down toward 45%. I would expect him to lower the GB% as he gets more and more reps; that’s typically what you see with these young power prospect studs.
He could use some work on pulling the ball as well, with just an 11.5% Air Pull%. But again, all of this just shows us the absurd power upside h e possesses.
The walks will keep coming as well. The low swing rate adds walks to his tally, and he’s generated a .404 OBP in the minor leagues the last three seasons.
I think a hefty price tag is justified in OBP or points leagues, but I do think he might be overvalued for standard roto leagues as things stand right now. He’s going in the top 60 picks, so he’s a 4th-5th round pick. If the strikeout and ground ball stuff continue, he’ll have a tough time being worth that pick. But the upside if he does improve makes up for it. I guess an ADP of 60-70 is justified.
The steals probably won’t be anything special. He has a career 12% attempt rate (all levels) with a max of 21 steals (2024). With expected OBP regression in 2026, I’d guess at 10-15 steals rather than 20+. The downside is a .260 batting average with 25 homers and 12 steals. That’s a good season, but not quite a fourth-round pick in most league types.
Projection
607 PA, 79 R, 29 HR, 61 RBI, 11 SB, .281/.383/.523
Ranking
Jarren Duran
Age: 29
Pos: OF
Duran had his breakout season in 2024, but could not repeat it in 2025. He fell to a three-year low .779 OPS with 16 bombs and 24 steals in 157 games played.
He gave back the K% gains he made in 2024 and was less aggressive as a base stealer. The good news:
So his xwOBA stayed about the same while his ground ball rate dropped, and the EV90 hit a career-best. I’m surprised there were only 16 homers in all of that playing time.
He doesn’t pull the ball very much, and that’s not good in Fenway. It’s tough to hit homers to the gaps there, especially as a left-handed hitter.
The contact stuff is fine, but nothing special. His strikeout rate is worse than average, and the zone contact rate at 83% is a touch lower than what we’d like to see.
After some early-season struggles and the promotion of Roman Anthony, he got bumped down in the lineup, but he never ended up in the bottom third. So he should be in there in the top four against right-handed pitchers. He’s not the worst at hitting lefties, but it’s not good:
Rob Refsnyder has departed, so the Red Sox can’t play the platoons quite as much. I think Duran should be in there 150+ times again next year, which turns into something like a 20-25-.260 season. The projection is 18 homers, 20 steals, and a .262 batting average. And there’s upside for more on that with how hard he hits the ball. This is a skills beast. 86th percentile bat speed, 91st percentile sprint speed.
Projection
585 PA, 86 R, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 20 SB, .262/.330/.448
Ranking
Trevor Story
Age: 33
Pos: SS
Story did two surprising things in 2025.
Stayed healthy (157 games)
Showed us that he’s still really good
The man hit .263/.308/.433 with 24 bombs and 31 steals. He dropped his strikeout rate to 27% and had a great season for Boston. That was after playing 94, 43, and 26 games in the previous three years.
And that’s the real question for 2026. How many games will he play? It’s very similar to the Buxton situation.
He sets up as a standard league shortstop for 2026, obviously. But he’s not overly expensive because of his age and the lack of games played prior to last season. The advanced profile from 2025:
An 82% Zone Contact% isn’t great, but it’s fine. I’m okay wit taht for guys with power and speed. Story’s EV90 landed at 106.4, which is good. He wasn’t quite as aggressive on the bases as he had been, but we’re pretty happy with a 22% attempt rate. I’m not sure he’ll notch another 30-steal season, but we’ll be projecting him for around 15-20.
A .329 BABIP helped out. His .247 xBA was well below his actual, but his speed steals some hits (82nd percentile sprint speed).
He was aggressive with the bat with the 54% Swing%, and his batted ball profile wasn’t all that great with just the 13.5% Air Pull% and 34% Sweet Spot%.
I do see a large amount of downside with Story. Health is the main thing there. But also, I do think he could end up as a .230 hitter or something. He’s not a young guy anymore, and the projection is going to be for more strikeouts next year since we weigh in 2022-2024 in the projection.
I’m not over the moon about Story, but he’s a true 20-20 threat after pick 100, and that’s not always easy to find.
Projection
600 PA, 59 R, 20 HR, 66 RBI, 16 SB, .237/.290/.405
All of the projections are on the web app. You can easily compare a player across different systems. I’d like to do that for Story:
The Bat is pretty hog wild on him with the .250 average and 24-24 stuff. I’m penalizing him a lot more than the other systems with a 20-16-.237 projection on a high 28% K%. Who will be right? Only time will tell, if he even plays enough to find out! Great upside pick at SS after pick 100 though, that much is clear.
Ranking
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