2026 Team Previews: Chicago Cubs
A detailed fantasy baseball oriented team preview of the 2026 Chicago Cubs
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Intro
The Cubs came out of the gate super hot in 2025. They were #2 in the league in run-scoring from March through May. From June on, they were #17. Tucker was hurt, PCA kinda stopped hitting, Seiya Suzuki had some rough cold stretches, and the Matt Shaw thing didn’t really work out.
They come into 2026 with a slightly different-looking lineup. Tucker is out, Alex Bregman is in. And you’d have to consider that a downgrade. From what I can see, there aren’t any massive reinforcements coming from the minor league, either.
The NL Central is wide open, so the Cubs have a shot at it for sure. In fact, they’re the current favorite.
The roster doesn’t really look like a division winner to me, but there aren’t any massive problems to find either. Let’s have at it!
Hitters
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Age: 23
Pos: OF
PCA was one of the big breakouts from 2025, although he did most of his damage in the first half.
Just four homers and a .533 OPS in the last two months as the Cubs really sputtered to the finish line.
PCA put your fantasy team near the top of the standings through Jue, but then you started him every day for the rest of the year and gave a lot of those gains back. But it was still a nice season when we closed the book:
→ .247/.287/.481, 31 HR, 35 SB
It’s hard to say too many bad things about a 30-30 player, but in this case, there are plenty of negatives to point out.
Crow-Armstrong’s overly aggressive approach at the plate makes him susceptible. He swung 60% of the time last year. It did slow down a little bit (57%) in those final two months while he was struggling, but he’s a hacker, man!
The 82% Zone-Contact% isn’t great, so he is really susceptible to weak contact. When you’re swinging that much, pitchers don’t have much of a reason to throw you strikes. His 60% Swing% was the highest in the league when filtering to 500+ PA.
He saw pitches in the strike zone just 46.5% of the time. The guy has to be more selective at the plate, or he’s going to have a career full of highs and lows. But he’s super young, so I think you’ll see improvement there starting in 2026.
The speed is not in question. He’s one of the fastest players in the league. He’s one of the best defenders in the game, which keeps him in the lineup daily, no matter what kind of offensive slump he’s in. So he’ll be a steals asset every year.
The raw power isn’t great, but it’s there.
→ 105.1 EV90
→ 113.2 MAX EV
→ 61st percentile bat speed
→ 25% Air Pull%
He lifted the ball a ton with a 33% GB%, and that turned into a 13% Brl% and a .333 xwOBA, +0.005 above expectation. You see the elite air pull up there, and that’s how he got to the 30-homer season, primarily.
He’s good! I don’t know about 30-30 repeating, but 20-20 would seem like a floor. OOPSY projections have come out the day I started writing this, so I can show you even more projections now.
Steamer is so jacked up with the playing time projections. I’m the high man, with another 32-homer projection for the kid. I’m building in some power growth with his age, but yeah, that’s a rosy projection from your boy.
My system would make him a 2nd-3rd round value. And I think that’s fine, I just worry a little bit that the batting average could take a hit and he could really undergo some extended cold streaks that hurt the end-of-season line because of his hyper-aggressiveness. Maybe the raw power doesn’t develop, pitchers keep him away from pulling a bit more, and he ends up with like 18-20 homers? That wouldn’t be great.
Projection
643 PA, 73 R, 32 HR, 79 RBI, 33 SB, .250/.330/.473
I would fade my 32-homer projection, but it’s a good sign that PCA can repeat most of what we saw last year.
Ranking
Seiya Suzuki
Age: 31
Pos: OF
Suzuki enters his fifth MLB season after coming over. He’s had a nice career. His 2025 season was worse in OPS, but higher in home run output.
He played the most games of his career, which always helps. But his home run rate reached a career-best 4.9%. We’re going to project a decline in that, but you can see that mark has come up every year. So maybe he’s just improving as he sees more and more MLB pitching.
The steals popped down in 2025. A 14% attempt rate dropped to 5%, so that hurt the fantasy value quite a bit. Like PCA, he had a couple big streaks:
He was looking elite in those early months, much like that whole Cubs lineup, but he was bad in August and a lot of September. He hit just .236 with one homer in August and then .232 in September. He hit five homers in the final four games of the season to finish on a high note, but it was a rough second. From June on:
Let’s not get too bogged down by the splits, it’s always more wise to view the whole season rather than splitting it up.
Let’s check the fScores:
The best thing about him is the power. And we saw new heights for him in that regard. His 16.6% Brl% was elite, his EV90 reached 106.9, he got the air pull above 20%, and the batted ball profile was awesome.
He just struck out a few too many times (although an 84.3% Zone Contact% shows that he’s pretty good at making contact). Unlike PCA, he’s very patient at the plate with a 40% Swing%. So these two are pretty opposite approaches, but similar results in power.
Suzuki could afford to swing a bit more often. With that zone-contact rate, he could really cut down the strikeout rate if he took fewer strikes. But that might affect the power. I’m not here trying to give legitimate hitting advice.
The Cubs probably prefer to have him DH. He’s older, and hasn’t been much of an outfielder. That could cost him a few starts here and there. They probably need to get Moises Ballesteros some DH reps. But with Tucker out of town, they’ll probably just have to use him in the outfield. His starts by spot last year:
→ DH: 102
→ OF: 48
→→ LF: 15
→→ RF: 32
→→ CF: 1
Playing more in the outfield brings more injury risk. He hasn’t been the most durable player, but he’s mostly avoided long-term IL stints in his career.
He’s a fine player, I’m just not enthralled with him since the Cubs lineup probably isn’t going to be very good. The lack of steals now and about a .250 batting average projection make him more “fine” than someone I want to get on my team.
Projection
629 PA, 80 R, 29 HR, 85 RBI, 9 SB, .245/.330/.464
Ranking
Nico Hoerner
Age: 28
Pos: 2B
Hoerner did what Hoerner does in 2025. He started the year with an injury that I thought could be a problem, but it wasn’t. He played 156 games with a .297 batting average and 29 steals.
That’s a good fantasy player! The 7.6% K% was the 7th-best of the last five years. Not many guys get that many balls in play.
The trade-off you make for that sort of K% is a lack of power. And that’s who Hoerner’s always. Seven homers isn’t zero, so he’s not a Chandler Simpson type, but you’d be lucky to get double-digit homers from him.
He has a quicker and longer swing than you might think:
He’s not like Kwan, Chandler, and Arraez just legit punching the ball out there. So he can hit a home run or two every month. But you’re drafting him for batting average and steals.
Good news on that front! His .286 xBA was 98th percentile, and his sprint speed is 82nd percentile.
His SB attempt rate isn’t elite at 19%, but he ends up first base so much with all of the singles he hits that it’s turned into 42, 31, and 29 steals the last three years. He’s in the top 15 in steals projection across the different systems.
We know who Hoerner is. He’ll play a ton, get a ton of base hits, and steal around 30 bags. Just build in some power around him, and he’s a nice asset.
Projection
671 PA, 78 R, 11 HR, 67 RBI, 25 SB, .282/.341/.394
Ranking
Michael Busch
Age: 28
Pos: 1B
Busch was stuck in the Dodgers system for a while. He got moved to the Cubs in a trade a couple of years ago, and he didn’t do much until about midway through last year when he broke out in a big way.
34 bombs on a .261 batting average. He had a career year in pretty much every category. It was a “wavey” season:
But he was mostly good. The power indicators are interesting to see:
→ 17.1% Brl% (great)
→ .392 xwOBA (elite)
→ 105.4 EV90 (fine)
→ 16th percentile bat speed
So that’s interesting. He generated consistently high EVs without much bat speed. He didn’t reach outrageous numbers at the tail, but it was a consistent approach of squaring the ball up and hitting it at the right angles. This is pretty close to the ideal launch angle histogram:
The 96th percentile sweet spot rate is great, but probably going to regress. I don’t imagine we see a repeat of 34 homers next year.
The xBA was nice at .275; the actual was .261. The projections say .250 just because we’re regressing his K% and line drive rate and stuff in the “wrong” direction.
You’re buying a bit high on Busch. I’d say he overperformed a little bit last year, but he’s unlikely to really let you down.
Projection
619 PA, 77 R, 31 HR, 68 RBI, 6 SB, .252/.333/.483
Ranking
Dansby Swanson
Age: 31
Pos: SS
Swanson has been very consistent in his big league career.
The home runs spiked to 24 last year, adding eight to what he did the previous year in ten more games. He also got to 20 steals to become one of the sneakier 20-20 guys of the year.
But the batting average has been right around .243 the last three years, the strikeout rate is nothing great, and he’s not the most tools-loaded dude.
→ Brl%: 11.7%
→ ZCont: 77.5%
→ Bat Speed: 29th percentile
→ Sprint Speed: 80th percentile
He’s a perfectly fine late-round SS to have in deep leagues. He’ll hit double-digit homers and steal double-digit bases with ease. And he’ll play a bunch. But the Cubs might not be that great, so the counting stats could disappoint.
The ADP makes him an easy top 200 pick. I was a little surprised by that, but that’s what happens when you’re consistently getting 15-15 seasons and have a locked-in job.
But I’m not excited to roster Swanson this year. I mean, I’ll do it if I have to, but I’m not excited about it!
Projection
685 PA, 67 R, 25 HR, 69 RBI, 15 SB, .249/.311/.425
Ranking
Ian Happ
Age: 31
Pos: OF
Most MLB players are boring. We’ve got plenty of boring on this Cubs offense. Few players in the league are less exciting while still being pretty solid for fantasy leagues than Ian Happ.
I swear you never hear the dude’s name during the season. But he’s now played 150+ games in four straight yeras, clearing 20 homers in three straight, and giving a solid OBP
The batting average has been bad, even with an improved 23% K% last year. A .288 BABIP held him down slightly last year. He’s a heavy fly ball hitter with meh exit velos, and that turns into a whole bunch of flyouts. Hitting a fly ball isn’t a great outcome unless you’re really hitting it hard.
Here’s your BABIP by EV and BB type chart:
Hitting 80-100mph fly balls is not a good thing if you’re looking for base hits. You’ll get some homers and doubles above 95, so the slugging might be fine, but those balls are caught 80%+ of the time.
All of that to say, Happ isn’t going to hit for batting average. And you didn’t need me to tell you that, because he never has. But a .263 xBA from last year may make you think he could get above .250 again in 2026. And the fly balls are good for his continued 20+ homer output.
We want some steals from this type. If you’re maxing out at 25 bombs and a .250 batting average, you need to give us 15 steals or something to get to real fantasy value. And that’s going the wrong way for Happ:
It helps him a ton when he’s hitting lead-off. He was all over the lineup last year:
But with Tucker gone and no replacement for him (yet), you could see Happ hitting lead-off a bunch again next year. He’s a switch hitter, so we check the splits:
Better xBA as a righty, but more power from the left side. He led off some in both situations, so that doesn’t seem to matter all that much.
My model gives him the best season of the bunch, giving him 24-11-.254. That’s a standard league player, so he’s someone to know. But it’s just another yellow situation where I don’t really want the guy, but I’ll take him if it fits.
Projection
657 PA, 85 R, 24 HR, 75 RBI, 11 SB, .254/.350/.446
Ranking
The tradition of ranking him right next to Bryan Reynolds continues!
Matt Shaw
Age: 24
Pos: 3B
Update: I wrote this before the Bregman acquisition. With Bregman coming in, the playing time situation isn’t clear on Shaw. But a Hoerner trade could clear some things up. Time will tell, but you can’t value him nearly as high as I describe below until a path to everyday playing time opens up.
A classic situation here! The top prospect gets his first run at MLB pitching and falls pretty flat, and then we get a low price on him in year two. This isn’t foolproof, of course. Many top prospects have failed in year one and then gone on to fail in year two and eventually just be forgotten entirely. And that could be Shaw, but these types of players are ones to buy in on.
Here’s how it went in year one:
13-17 in 126 games. It could have been worse, but the slash line was awful. His bat speed was poor, and his EVs were really bad. It’s an ugly picture on the savant page:
A max EV of 109.2, a 29.4% hard hit rate, a 102 EV90… all discouraging.
But he hit some line drives and pulled the ball pretty well (19% air pull%) while making a good amount of contact (83.4% Zone Contact%).
So there’s some hope that he can be a 15-homer guy with a bunch of steals if he can raise the average and take some walks. He also did get better as the year went on:
He had an .839 OPS in August with five dingers and a steal. So that was encouraging. But he sucked in September again (.688 OPS, two homers). Maybe that will turn out to be a good thing. A big September would have this price a lot higher.
But I feel less good about him as compared to Cam Smith, at least in terms of him being a legit MLB hitter. The good news is that Shaw has speed, and he should be in there daily at third base. So you can feel confident in getting 20+ steals, assuming he does stay in the Major League lineup (which I suppose is no guarantee).
I’m in on the guy overall. I like the price and the steals. But I don’t think there’s enough raw power here to really punish you for fading him, and I think he’s fringe at best in standard leagues.
Projection
612 PA, 64 R, 21 HR, 58 RBI, 23 SB, .239/.309/.411
That’s a pretty bangin’ projection. But I’m, once again, the most optimistic.
Ranking
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