2026 Team Previews: San Diego Padres
A detailed fantasy baseball oriented team preview of the 2026 San Diego Padres
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Intro
The Padres have it rough, man. They’ve tried to do the big spender thing and go for a World Series, but it hasn’t worked out. Now they’re in somewhat of a financial struggle with nothing to show for it. And all of that while they watch the rival Dodgers spend like a half-billy a year to pile up World Series rings.
It’s hard not to root against the Dodgers. But, I don’t know, for some reason, I’m not rooting against the Dodgers. Maybe age and time have taken the twinkle out of my eye, or something. I don’t have warm feelings for the Padres, and I don’t know why. They haven’t done anything to me. They have seemingly likeable dudes, and they have that underdog story about them these days with the big bad Dodgers in the division.
Sometimes my kids ask questions like “Why do you like chocolate?” And some preferences have no explanation. You can’t really answer the question about why your tastes are a certain way. They just are. And as long as they’re not perversely disordered or extreme, it’s fine to let them go and not have to explain it. I don’t like the Padres, and I don’t feel the need to explain it.
Let’s break down the eventual NL West runner-up!
Hitters
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Age: 27
Pos: OF
It feels like Tatis doesn’t get talked about as much as some of the other big names. But maybe that’s because I’m never awake past 10:15 pm when they’re playing all of their games. And I don’t watch sports talk or read or listen to any other baseball publication, really. So what do I know?
Tatis was a superstar player in 2021, but ever since then, it hasn’t been all that special. These last three years after the injury and suspension:
Any team would take that production, but it’s not exactly a Hall of Fame worthy statline, and that’s the kind of dude Tatis was looking like four years ago. But he’s still mashing the ball:
It’s a good EV profile; he certainly has big power upside. He doesn’t pull very often, and it’s not a great park for homers, so that stuff holds him down. But there’s easy 30-30 ability here, and you saw that his K-BB% stuff really narrowed in last year with that 19% K% and 13% BB%.
He is a bit streaky. He homered eight times in March-April last year, so that was an awesome start. But then he had just a .626 OPS in May.
Tatis probably isn’t a first-round talent at this point, but he’s not far from it. And I could definitely see him being a guy who has another season somewhat close to 2021. He’s one of the few true 35-35 threats in the league.
Projection
679 PA, 103 R, 30 HR, 74 RBI, 23 SB, .266/.353/.476
Ranking
Manny Machado
Age: 33
Pos: 3B
Manny has held strong, his career has been remarkably consistent. The park in San Diego has probably cost him some dingers over the years, but he has at least 27 homers per year and a .277/.338/.483 slash line these last five seasons in San Diego while missing a max of 12 games in a single year.
Awesome stuff from Manny. He’s a top-five option at 3B by the projections. He’s even kicked in double-digit steals the last two years. You’d think the projections would all be pretty much in agreement on the guy, and that’s what we see.
We have him for 26-30 homers with 9-11 steals and a .270ish average.
With these veteran types, you really don’t need to dig deep into the numbers. Manny’s been doing the same thing for years, and that will tell you all you need to know. He’s a fine pick, and this year, there’s some real separation at 3B after the top four names, of which he is one.
A 40-pick gap between him and Austin Riley. There’s some reason to draft Manny. It puts you ahead of most of the rest of the league at third. Not that there aren’t solid options behind him, but third base is top-heavy, and it’s always a plus to get in before the first big drop-off in ADP/value.
Ranking
Jackson Merill
Age: 22
Pos: OF
Merrill would’ve had a Rooke of the Year in 2024 if not for that Skenes guy. But he fell victim to a sophomore slump in 2025. He lost more than 50 points in OPS and hit just 16 homers. There was an injury in there which cost him 40+ games, but he dropped in both home run rate (4.0% → 3.3%) and stolen base attempt rate (15% → 3%).
The injuries:
Tough year. An early-season hamstring could certainly derail a season. And then he had a concussion the day he returned. So, can we pin the year down on the injuries? It’s possible. There was still a lot of good in the profile:
→ 13% Brl%
→ .364 xwOBA
→ 44% Sweet Spot%
→ 105.3 EV90
His 79th-percentile sprint speed was right where it was the previous year. So I’m not sure what the lack of steals attempts was, but I’d imagine a good number of them come back. Or at least that’s what the projections will say.
I don’t think Merrill is a 35-homer guy; he’s small, and the EVs aren’t anything great. But he’s really good with the bat,
I’d really like to know that he’ll be able to grab 15 steals again before pulling the trigger on him. A .270 batting average with 25 bombs and five steals is good, but not exactly a top-50 return. But I do think there’s a very good chance he bounces back and shows a 2026 result that looks a lot more like 2024 than 2025.
His 22% K% was competitive, but up significantly from the 17% mark in that rookie year. The 81% Zone Contact% isn’t great, either. So maybe the pitchers did make an adjustment.
The right projection is going to be between these two different seasons he’s had. He certainly does not have the fantasy upside of a Tatis, but the floor should be pretty solid, and his best years are almost surely still ahead. He’s still 22 years old!
Projection
I’m way ahead of the rest of the field again. I think 31 homers is way too high of a projection for Merrill. But I like him plenty in the ADP 75 range.
Ranking
Ramon Laureano
Age: 31
Pos: OF
One of the big surprises of 2025 was how good Laureano was. He ended up getting moved to San Diego, and he’s returning with them this year.
He piled on 100+ points to his OPS from the prior years, and more than doubled his home run total (with 34 more games played). He reduced the K% by seven points.
→ 13.8% Brl%
→ .276 xBA
→ .371 xwOBA
→ 106.8 EV90
→ 41% GB%
→ 18% Air Pull%
It all looked pretty great, but we have to be pretty suspicious of a guy having a career year at age 30. He was more or less working in a weak-side platoon for a while there, but the Padres made him an everyday player.
The xwOBA was good in those 329 PAs, but he struck out a bunch. I’d be pretty skeptical that he can hit righties well enough to be a very good hitter next year. He was below 90 with his wRC+ against righties in 2021-2024, so the 2025 spike seems weird.
But he hits a lot of balls in the air with decent EVs, and had a good 18% Air Pull% last year. So he can hit, and he’ll have some moments. But a repeat of last year seems like a very unlikely thing to hope for.
Projection
566 PA, 59 R, 25 HR, 65 RBI, 9 SB, .257/.322/.465
Ranking
Xander Bogaerts
Age: 33
Pos: SS
He’s been hurt a good bit the last two years, but the power seems to ahve really been zapped after coming over to San Diego as a 30+ year old.
These last two years combined:
→ 1,015 PA, .262/.318/.384, 22 HR, 33 SB
It was nice to get the stolen bases back last year. An 11-20-.261 season in 138 games isn’t bad. The K% has stayed low, so maybe he can have a year with closer to a .280 batting average again at some point. His xBA last year was up there at .272:
So maybe he can build on average a bit, which would be nice because he’s not going to give you anything great in homers or steals.
Petco isn’t friendly to these middling-EV guys. We have limited upside across the board with Bogaerts.
But as a veteran with a guaranteed job on a decent offense, the floor is reasonable. My projection is 17 bombs, 16 steals, and a .273 batting average. I’d probably take the under on those marks, again, but it shows you what he’s capable of. The Bat X isn’t far from me, so that’s good news.
Ranking
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