2026 Team Previews: Washington Nationals
A detailed fantasy baseball oriented team preview of the 2026 Washington Nationals
Other Team Links and Explanation Page Here
I told you last time that the White Sox would be the final fully free team preview. But I lied! The Nationals one is also free. That’s because I went about showing some of the web app updates in the podcast version, and I wanted everybody to be able to see that. So you’ll get this one for free, BUT THAT’S IT! The rest of the pods and full written pieces will be behind the paywall and not go to the Spotify/Apple podcast feeds.
Podcast Version
Intro
This is team #3! I’m feeling pretty good about the pace I’ve established. There are three more teams written and ready to go. It would be pretty awesome if I could finish this by early January.
And I’ll tell you all this much. These team previews have become a bit of an escape for me. There are so many other things I have to constantly be doing in life. I have a full-time job, a football blog, a wife, three kids, and I do a ton of stuff for my church and my church’s school… so every day there are dozens of things I need to do.
When I can find some quiet time to sit down and focus on writing these pieces, that’s about as satisfied as I am during the average day. It’s a blast to write them and rank these players. I hope that comes out in the write-ups themselves.
I don’t have anything in particular to say about the Nationals as an organization. I was at a Nationals vs. Orioles game in DC when it was announced that Michael Jackson had died. So that’s my biggest Nationals memory. Here I was:
That’s a Ryan Zimmerman shirt. I was 18. I think I smoked a cigar on that trip and thought I was a real bad boy. When you’re a middle-class kid growing up in the Pittsburgh suburbs with two pretty strict and responsible parents, you don’t end up with many good stories from your childhood. I apologize. Let us begin!
Hitters
James Wood
Age: 23
Pos: OF
What an insane season it was for the Nationals’ most exciting player. This plot does a pretty good job at displaying it:
His OPS by month:
→ Mar/Apr: .903
→ May: 1.014
→ June: .894
→ July: .564
→ August: .724
→ September: .785
Let’s split that right in half:
March Through June
→ .283/.386/.552, 22 HR, 11 SB, 52 R, 64 RBI, 27% K%, 14.5% BB%
July Through September
→ .226/.307/.389, 9 HR, 4 SB, 35 R, 30 RBI, 38% K%, 9.8% BB%
Every aspect of his game (at the plate) fell apart after July 1st. Very weird and frustrating stuff for those who had him and were thinking they had an MVP candidate on their team in the middle of the year.
He did finish with five homers in September, but the K% was 38.6%. His K% was 41%, 36%, and 39% in the season’s final three months. It was a huge problem for him. And that’s why you get a sub-100 Hit Tool and Discipline score on him:
The Z-Contact% finished at 76.9%, a bad number. In that second half, it was 73.4%, the fourth-worst mark in the Major Leagues. When you look at the guys there with him, you feel a bit better about it:
Lowest Z-Contact%, July-September
Josh Lowe 71%
Nick Kurtz 71%
Rafael Devers 73%
James Wood 73%
Ronald Acuna Jr. 74%
Shohei Ohtani 74%
Lawrence Butler 74%
Ryan McMahon 75%
Colton Cowser 75%
Kyle Schwarber 75%
You can take on plenty of zone-whiffs as long as you’re mashing when you’re getting to it.
Wood has not been able to consistently lift the ball in the Major Leagues. The exit velocity stuff is fine, but the rest of it is bad (full-season numbers shown below):
→ 10% Air Pull% (league average = 15%)
→ 38% Sweet Spot% (league average = 35%)
→ 21% Pull% on Barrels (league average = 25%)
→ 21% FB% (league average = 27%)
A lot of his raw power (111.9 EV90, 118 max EV) is wasted (or at least devoid of efficiency) by the low launch angles and balls unpulled.
That’s not nearly as big an issue as the strikeouts, though. If he can get these Ks under control (for him, that would mean < 28%), he’ll be perfectly fine. Maybe he’ll be more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter (that’s what happens when most of your barrels are to center or opposite field), and you’ll generally be fine with that in fantasy. And the home runs will come. I mean, there’s no world where Wood is a 15-homer guy while healthy.
The point is that I wouldn’t discount the guy a ton because of the lack of pulled fly balls. Singles and doubles are good, especially when the guy is a stolen base threat.
It’s just a question about whether he can cut this K% down. It went from 29% in 2024 to 32.5% last year.
Wood is a patient hitter. Maybe too patient! His 40% Swing% was way below the league average, and it got him into more two-strike counts than you’d like to see. If you’re going to be a high-zone-whiff guy, you’d like to get an extra crack at it or two every PA. Don’t get to 0-2 or 1-2 when you’re a guy who can be whiffed so easily.
This is a lot of words without a firm conclusion, but the conclusion is pretty clear.
Wood is not an auto-smash pick in 2026. He’s not going to be a first-round pick in any leagues, even though it was looking like he was heading there back in June. There are holes in his game, but the power and speed combination are among the game’s best, and we’re talking about a 23-year-old with all kinds of room for growth and improvement. I want to be betting on players like this, especially if we can get a big discount.
Projection
513 PA, 73 R, 26 HR, 62 RBI, 14 SB, .259/.353/.494
Ranking
He’s the best fantasy player I’ve seen so far, so he’s at the top of the list. But I’m guessing he’ll end up outside of the top 25 hitters.
C.J. Abrams
Age: 25
Pos: SS
Abrams has turned into one of the more consistent hitters in the fantasy baseball game. He’s an easy guy to figure out. And look, he’s 25 now. I have been doing this long enough that I feel like I’ve watched some of these guys grow up. I mean, not “watched”, because I don’t watch the games (and certainly not the Nationals games), but this is my 3rd or 4th straight year writing this piece on CJ Abrams. This year, I can’t say “he’s super young and there’s all kinds of time for him to develop” because he’s not super young anymore. Funny how that happens. Age is not a sticky stat.
That consistency I was talking about:
→ 2023: 151 GP, .245 AVG, 18 HR, 47 SB
→ 2024: 138 GP, .246 AVG, 20 HR, 31 SB
→ 2025: 144 GP, .255 AVG, 19 HR, 31 SB
He’s been a 20-homer, 30-steal guy the last two years without a beneficial batting average. That made him the #10 roto shortstop last year. I believe that puts him in the “underrated” category. That can happen with these big prospect names who come up to the Majors and establish themselves as just “fine” players. People were all thinking Abrams could turn into a 30-30 player with a high batting average. That’s not who he is, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a good fantasy option.
Abrams is one of these stolen bases sources that don’t hurt you anywhere else. So many of the 30-steal threats after the first few rounds come with major liabilities. That’s not the case with the Nationals’ shortstop.
Let’s check the yearly trend data (dashboard available here).
We find consistency here as well. The GB%, EV, Brl%, and plate discipline stuff are all really close from 2024 to 2025. He did become a bit more patient with a career-low swing rate (and consequently a career-low chase rate), but it didn’t make much difference on anything. I’d still take that as a positive. I like it when hitters become more selective as they age, but that’s not something that has a direct correlation to fantasy production.
I try not to take strolls down narrative street. But with Abrams, something does stick out in my brain. Remember back in 2024, he got demoted for the final week or so of the season because he was out all night at the casino before a day game? Fortunately, that didn’t happen again in 2025, but he did trend downward late in the year.
His final two months of 2025:
→ 218 PA, .218/.257/.354, 24% K%, 4% BB%
His final two months of 2024:
→ 152 PA, .216/.270/.367, 25% K%, 5% BB%
His final two months of 2023:
→ 233 PA, .225/.283/.404, 17% K%, 6% BB%
We’ve found something here! The career OPS by month:
We typically explain this with something about the guy physically wearing down. But with a young, light, athletic shortstop, that makes a bit less sense. It could be, but it also seems somewhat likely that it’s a motivational thing?
I’m speculating big-time at this point, and I’m probably telling tales out of school. But I can’t forget about the casino story. And in my own mind, I feel like I would find it pretty tough to show up to work 100% focused every day in August and September on a bad baseball team.
What do you do with that information? I’d say nothing. But maybe store it away in case you have Abrams next year and the Nationals are sucking again. He’s a decent guy to try to ship away in July.
Overall, I’m still in on the kid. It’s nice to get a strong source of steals that doesn’t kill you in other categories outside of the first five (or so) rounds of the draft.
Projection
590 PA, 79 R, 18 HR, 57 RBI, 24 SB, .245/.312/.411
Ranking
He’s clearly ahead of Ezequiel Tovar for the top spot at shortstop three teams into this exercise.
Daylen Lile
Age: 23
Pos: OF
This is the time when we talk about the sweet spot rate. Last year, it was Connor Norby in the Marlins team preview that inspired me to take a bit of a deep dive into it. That post is evergreen, and you can read it here:
What I found was that sweet spot rate is subject to regression (just like all other batted ball stats). You should always expect significant regression to the mean for the guys at the poles. So that was bad news for Norby last year (who went from a 47% rate to 42%), and it’s bad news for Lile this year.
I’ve already published some Daylen Lile analysis. I’m not sure why, but I have done that here. I was just hankering for some player analysis one day back in September.
But let’s recap it all for you. Lile played 91 games for the Nats last year and was one of their better hitters:
→ 350 PA, .305/.352/.511, 9 HR, 8 SB
That would extrapolate to an easy 15-15 pace with an elite batting average.
Lile hit .328 in 47 games in the minors, so he had a huge pro season in terms of racking up hits. And that’s because he was one of the best line drive hitters in the league and came in with a very nice 16% K% in a half-season’s worth of work against Major League pitching.
His .269 and .262 batting minor league batting averages the prior two years make you wonder if 2025 wasn’t a bit of an outlier. And we already know it was based on that unrepeatable sweet spot rate. I’m not saying he’s going to lose 100 points on the average next year, but I find it really tough to believe he’ll flirt with .300 again.
And batting average is his main appeal. His career PA/HR (all levels) is 56, which is really bad. He’s a decent steals guy (21% attempt% averaging about a 25-steal pace), but it’s nothing that separates him.
What you have is a hitter who I think will be overdrafted in 2026 because of how well he did upon promotion to the bigs. I don’t see the power sticking:
→ 103.9 EV90
→ 109.1 Max
→ 5.2% Brl%
He did have a better than league average 18% Air Pull%, but that’s something pitchers can suppress on him next year since they now have tape and view him as somewhat of a threat. I would rather rely on the raw power skills rather than somewhat flukey stuff like launch angle ranges and pull rates.
My guess is Lile goes for a .280 batting average (which is very good in today’s league) while playing at about a 12-homer, 17-steal pace. Something like that. Fine for deep league depth, but not something I want to spend serious draft capital on.
Projection
450 PA, 58 R, 14 HR, 59 RBI, 16 SB, .290/.346/.468*
The early MLB DW model is over-heated on a few guys, and Lile is one of them. Steamer has him for this:
450 PA, 51 R, 10 HR, 53 RBI, 12, SB.269/.324/.426
Ranking
He’s somewhere around this Robert/Moniak/Beck range that I have trio’d together. But they’re hard to compare without projections because they do things in such opposite ways. Lile feels relatively safe because of the hit tool stuff, but the upside does not match what those three have with their power/speed combos. I’m sliding him in behind those three and ahead of Lenyn Sosa, but I wouldn’t blame anybody for taking Lile over a Robert/Moniak type.
Dylan Crews
Age: 23
Pos: OF
I had some high hopes for Crews in 2025. The #2 overall pick of the 2023 draft came into 2025 ready to an everyday outfielder for the club. He struggled early on and then got hurt just as he was turning things around. His final season line (in 85 games):
→ .208/.280/.348, 24% K%, 7.5% BB%, 10 HR, 17 SB
That was after slashing .218/.288/.353 in 31 games in 2024. So we have a guy with a career .631 OPS. Not good.
The good news is that he’s still 23 years old and has definitely shown us the raw talent he has.
→ 106.5 EV90
→ 73rd percentile bat speed
→ 89th percentile sprint speed
It’s also a positive that he hasn’t had a big strikeout issue. He posted that 24% K% last year on an 82% Zone-Contact%. There’s plenty of room for improvement there, but it’s not a big problem for him right now. The BABIP came in at .246 last year, which is way lower than you’d expect, and you can see that by his xBA being up at .240 (30 points above the actual).
I guess I wouldn’t feel nearly as optimistic about him if he wasn’t the #2 overall pick, but I do think that matters. Skill-wise, he’s not bad in anything, he just hasn’t broken through in anything but the speed:
The key point is that there are different ways Crews can make fantasy value. Maybe he really improves with the hit tool and ends up boosting the batting average. Or maybe he taps into some of the raw power he has and becomes a 20+ homer guy. Or maybe both!
We can feel pretty confident that in 2026, with health, Crews will:
→ Improve as a player, at least slightly
→ Steal a good number of bases
There are no glaring issues in the profile. He’s just been “meh” pretty much across the board with bad luck and injuries holding him down. I think the ceiling is 25-30-.270 next year for Crews. I can’t say he has a solid floor, but I would still be in buy mode on the kid.
Projection
520 PA, 59 R, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 23 SB, .245/.318/.417
Ranking
The comp I’m looking at right now is Crews vs. Brenton Doyle. I think it’s obvious you take Crews ahead of the Robert/Moniak stuff, but I like the more proven assets like Abrams/Goodman/Tovar more than him. That lands him nicely at #5 in front of Doyle.
Luis Garcia Jr.
Age: 25
Pos: 2B
Garcia and Abrams… they’ll always go together in my head. Two Nationals middle infielders who debuted at super young ages. It feels like they’ve both been around forever, but they’re still just 25 years old.
Garcia saw a breakout year in 2024. He couldn’t quite repeat that, but he didn’t go back to his old ways, either.
He splashed to 18-22-.282 in 2024, and that made for a very nice roto fantasy player.
He’s super aggressive at the plate. His swing rate came up to 54% last year, and he chased a lot at 38%. That means he rarely walks, and the OBP fell well below .300, but his strong 89% Zone-Contact% keeps the strikeouts off the board. He gets a ton of balls in play. Like Crews, he’s solid across the board skill-wise.
And he started lifting the ball more last season, posting career-bests in GB% (45.5%), Brl% (9%), EV90 (105.2), and xwOBA (.348).
The reason his power production is well below what you really want in fantasy is the launch angle stuff. He doesn’t pull it often (12% Air Pull%), and his fly ball rate (24%) is very low.
We have issues with the splits as well.
→ vs. RHP: .270/.304/.458, 16 HR, .373 xwOBA
→ vs. LHP: .179/.224/.221, 0 HR, .249 xwOBA
The Nats did platoon him at times last year, but there wasn’t anybody good enough to take that weak-side platoon role and run with it, so Garcia ended up with 139 games played. But there’s a real platoon threat next year; the guy has very little to offer against southpaws.
We’re left without feeling very inspired to draft Garcia next year. There’s a deep 5x5 roto league case to be made for him. He could easily be a .270 batting average, 15-homer, 15-steal guy. You’d take that for what he costs, but the floor/ceiling doesn’t seem to be worth going out of your way for, especially in weekly lock leagues where you’re stuck with bagels on him when the Nats face a lefty.
Projection
475 PA, 59 R, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 13 SB, .277/.318/.451
Ranking
I’ll take him over Sosa (the only other 2B ranked). He’s in this weird Robert/Moniak/Beck/Lile range as well. That range is already pissing me off. But I’m squeezing him in between Moniak and Beck. Let’s get some color in there.
Keibert Ruiz
Age: 27
Pos: C
Another Nationals player we have seen for a long time now! And things bottomed out for Ruiz in 2025. It was mostly due to concussion problems last year, which is not what you want to see, but the guy’s best work with the bat is a .721 PS in 2023. He did blast 18 homers that year, but over these last two seasons he has hit just .235/.266/.345 with 15 homers and three steals.
He gets a ton of balls in play (10.6% K%), but it’s not quality contact (49% GB%, .287 xwOBA, 2.2% Brl%, 100.3 EV90 last year).
Hopefully, he can get the concussion stuff behind him and stay on the field next year. The Nationals don’t seem to have any other catcher options looking to take his job. But the bat has never been good enough for fantasy league consideration.
Projection
370 PA, 37 R, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 3 SB, .258/.300/.371
Ranking
He goes behind Edgar Quero at the bottom of the list.
Brady House
Age: 22
Pos: 3B
House will get a shot to be the everyday third baseman for the Nationals next year. He had a nice season in AAA last year:
→ 65 G, .304/.353/.519, 13 HR, 0 SB
And that got him some big league action:
→ 73 G, .234/.252/.322, 4 HR, 5 SB, 28.8% K%, 2.9% BB%
Not much success, but we are always looking to forgive those first 50-100 games played. Let’s take a look at the minor league fScores.
So a positive power score, but you can see that this plate discipline stuff has long been a problem. From 2024-2025 in the minors he went for a high 26.5% K% and a low 6.1% BB%. He swings a lot, chases a lot, and and whiffs a lot (72% Contact%). And that was against minor league pitching!
Not a surprise to see his 77% Zone-Contact% and 37% Chase% in the Majors.
The raw power is there. Max EV of 112.4 and an EV90 at 106.2. He was around the 60th percentile in both bat speed and sprint speed. So there’s some raw talent here, but so far he hasn’t put much of it together at any level.
House was a first-round pick back in 2021 out of high school. We really should note the age. He’s a 6’4’’, 210-pound 22-year-old. Lots can change with these types of guys, and if he takes a big step forward with pitch recognition, discipline, and in-zone contact stuff, the power could play up to a 20-25 homer bat next year.
He’s not someone you need to worry about in standard leagues, and I won’t be surprised if I draft zero shares of him even in the deep leagues, but this isn’t the type of profile we should be abandoning yet.
Projection
420 PA, 45 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 5 SB, .254/.280/.384
Ranking
Will he even be the 3B for the Nats on Opening Day? We won’t know until the spring, I imagine. So he’s tough to rank.
Pitchers
MacKenzie Gore
Age: 26
Early on in this series while we’re reviewing all these bad teams, we get a bunch of really difficult-to-rank starting pitchers. And Gore is very difficult to rank!
He had one of the crazier first half / second half seasons you’ll see.
First 15 GS: 2.89 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 33.6% K%, 6.5% BB%, 1.03 HR/9
Last 15 GS: 5.72 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 20.2% K%, 12.6% BB%, 1.24 HR/9
He does offer us a chance to take advantage of the people who are going to overreact to the second half. If you really think that Gore is an 8% K-BB% guy next year, I’d like to play fantasy baseball against you.
This is classic Command #2 stuff.
It was some mix of injury, fatigue, and early-season luck, probably. He’s not as good as he was in April-May, but he’s not as bad as he was in June-August.
He was losing fastball velo steadily through the year, or at least before his final start.
The injuries:
August 30th: left shoulder inflammation
September 23: right ankle impingement
You don’t like to see the shoulder stuff, but he did make three starts in September after that happened. They weren’t good starts (12:9 K:BB), but he was back on the mound while the Nats had nothing to play for - so that speaks to the organization’s confidence in his health.
I can’t help but think that Gore will end up too cheap this year. 2025 left a very bad taste in everybody’s mouth. But man, he was dominating in April-May.
April-May 2025 :: K-BB% Leaders
Logan Gilbert 32.5%
MacKenzie Gore 30.3%
Cole Ragans 28.9%
Zack Wheeler 27.6%
Nathan Eovaldi 26.4%
If we look at his last three years in the Majors:
→ 89 GS, 4.20 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 26% K%, 9.3% BB%, 1.2 HR/9
He’s never put together a season with good ratios, but the K-BB% being at 17% makes you think it could happen. At least a decent ERA could happen. Maybe the WHIP stuff just can’t happen because he can’t ever find consistent command. But as a 27-year-old with proven strikeout stuff, I wouldn’t want to be giving up on the guy yet.
Projection
167 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 169 SO, 32% K%, 11% BB%
Ranking
The other contender on the ranking as I write this is Shane Smith. Gore, for all of his faults, has clearly proven to be Major League worthy starter. He will take the ball every fifth game while healthy. You can’t say the same with Smith. I could absolutely see Smith breaking out and pitching way better than Gore, but I don’t think I can quite get myself to rank Smith above Gore. The innings and strikeout projections are going to point highly in favor of Gore.
Cade Cavalli
Age: 27
It’s been a long time coming for Cavalli. He was drafted in the first round of the 2020 draft (22nd overall) and quickly ended up as one of the Nationals top pitching prospects. But he’s had trouble staying healthy.
2021: 132 IP
2022: 101 IP
2023: 0 IP
2024: 6 IP
2025: 123 IP
The six innings between 2023-2024 made most of us forget about him. But he finally put together a full season last year and made 10 Major League stars. Those numbers:
4.25 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 18.3% K%, 6.8% BB%, 1.3 HR/9
Not good at all! Cavalli is now 27 years old, so we have lost a lot of that young prospect allure.
He wasn’t mowing dudes down in the minor leagues either as he ramped back up to the Majors. He went for a 13.1% SwStr% and a 25% K% in his time in AAA last year, and the walk stuff was short of spectacular (36% Ball%, 9.5 BB%).
Some good news now! The velo is there:
That’s a heavy fastball and it grades out very well. The 13% SwStr%, 50% Strike%, and 31% Ball% are awesome to see. You know I’m a big fan of strong fastball foundations.
The curveball also went for a really nice 18.8% SwStr% and 33% Ball% combination with a 69% GB%! Two very strong pitches, and both graded out very well in my JA STUFF model.
I’m a little confused why he didn’t have more success. He finished with a 13.8% SwStr% and a 33.8% Ball% for a 3.59 JA ERA. His BABIP was very high at .331 and the HR/FB was massively inflated at 28%. He also gave up a high 26% RISP HIT%.
read about RISP H% here if you don’t know what that is.
His 4.09 SIERA beat his 4.25 ERA by a little bit, but it’s not a very big gap. I think drafters are likely to miss how much good news there is in the profile here.
As you probably know, I love to look for those gaps between SwStr% and K%. For all starters with 10+ GS and a 13%+ SwStr%, Cavalli had the lowest strikeout rate. Look at it!
And here’s where he lines up on my favorite pitcher scatter plot:
Let me boil this down for you.
Cavalli had a bad ERA. He also had a pretty bad SIERA. But his bad SIERA was mostly reflective of the bad K% (18%). I believe that his SwStr% (along with the fact that his fastball and curveball both look really good by the numbers) is a great indicator that he will push this K% up toward the mid-20s next year.
If we can get a 24% K% from Cavalli with the strong command he showed in the Majors (6.8% BB%, 33.8% Ball%) and the ground balls (55%), we almost surely get a true breakout season from Cavalli.
This guy checks all of the buy-low boxes I’m looking for. Let me keep going, I’m excited here. Pull up the main dashboard, go to the pitcher tab, and filter to this:
→ 10+ GS
→ SwStr% > 13%
→ Ball% < 35%
→ GB% > 50%
You get all of three results. They are Cristopher Sanchez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Cade Cavalli. Those first two guys finished #1 and #9 in ERA last season (if you’re pretty lenient with the qualification criteria in the case of Eovaldi).
The Nats have been waiting a long time to get some Major League production from Cade Cavalli, but I think their patience will be rewarded in 2026.
Projection
The projections are not going to capture the upside for Cavalli. He’s going under-project and will be under-drafted. I have a feeling he’ll be one of my most-rostered pitchers next year.
149 IP, 4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 128 SO, 19.7% K%, 7.2% BB%
Ranking
I just decided to put Gore ahead of Smith. And I think I’d still rather have Smith than Cavalli, so that’s the 1-2-3. But I think they’re all going to end up pretty close in my rankings. And I’m certain that Cavalli will be basically free in drafts. So I’ll have a bunch of Cavalli while not having much Gore at all. The cost-considered rankings will be different, but I’m doing this for right now:
Josiah Gray
Age: 28
Remember old Josiah? He had Tommy John surgery in 2024 and worked his way back to make a few rehab outings in September before the season ended. So he’ll be back in contention for a rotation spot in 2026.
The Nationals don’t have a ton of depth to keep him out of the mix. I imagine he gets his job back. But it’s not like he’s earned it in his big league career.
73 GS, 387 IP, 4.84 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 22.5% K%, 10.8% BB%, 1.9 HR/9
Not only is he returning from major surgery at the age of 28, but he’s also bad in all three of the most important elements of pitching (strikeouts, walks, home run prevention).
It’s extremely hard to see Gray coming back and pitching way better than he ever has before, which is what he would have to do to warrant any sort of fantasy baseball consideration.
To his credit, he’s always had some nasty breaking balls, and he does have two seasons under his belt (2021 and 2022) with above-average strikeout rates. But he posted ERAs above five in both of those years, so it didn’t even help.
We’re looking at Gray as some sort of points league streamer next year. That’s about all I can say about the guy. But hey, welcome back, bro. Can’t wait to play some left-handed power bats against you in DFS.
Ranking
Bottom of the list, even below Dollander!
Brad Lord
Age: 25
I hesitated to even take the time to give a few blurbs on Lord. But I’m going for it. From 2023-2024 in the minors:
42 GS, 234 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 22.2% K%, 7.8% BB%, 0.46 HR/9
Last season in the Majors:
19 GS, 131 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19.8% K%, 7.9% BB%, 1.2 HR/9
He held his own for 130 innings. That should put him on the big league roster again next season. I’m not sure if that will be in the rotation or in the bullpen. He spent time in both roles last year, but he finished in the rotation and didn’t do a terrible job. In September:
5 GS, 27 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 21% K%, 7% BB%, 2.0 HR/9
MLB DW COMMANDMENT #2 says to never value the recent/small sample over the big one. I’m not making a point about his September stats, I’m just saying that such a finish might sway the Nats management into putting him as the SP4 or SP5 to begin 2026. He at least showed that he can give you non-awful innings in that role.
The pitch mix:
A very poor SwStr%, and that’s what we’ve seen from him his whole career. He hasn’t gotten strikeouts at any level. If we zoom in on that final month when he was working as a starter:
The fastball velo comes down a tick and the SwStr% gets so much worse to 8.8%. We should not be burdening ourselves with single-digit swinging strike rates. That could be another commandment. We’re done here.
Ranking
The new last-place name on the list.
That does it for the standard league Nationals players. The prospect review is below. The most exciting name for the Nats is pitching prospect Travis Sykora, but he had Tommy John surgery last summer, so we won’t be seeing much (if any) of him in pro ball next year. Lots of good info in the pod that Tim and Doc did below, so check that out if you’re trying to get to know the Nationals farm.
The Prospect Warehouse: 2026 Washington Nationals
I have not watched this one yet, so I can’t even comment! I will enjoy it along with the rest of you.