My draft preparation work is essentially over. In the last couple of days, I’ve released the Draft Guide and the Perfect Draft. I guess I could do a few more to just keep hammering home the strategies and players I like, but those two are the bow on top of all of the huge box of stuff that’s been coming here since December. You can go through all of the Team Previews if you are looking for more stuff to read, there’s a ton there.
So now we’re paying attention to the news and adjusting our rankings and strategies when things happen. And things are happening.
Grayson Rodriguez
Elbow and tricep soreness
Last year, Grayson missed time with right shoulder inflammation and also a right lat muscle issue. He has not had a healthy career.
Innings by Year
2021: 103
2022: 76
2023: 163
2024: 117
He will start the year on the IL. I’ve moved him down to SP49. That has him behind guys like Jared Jones, Ryan Pepiot, and Brandon Pfaadt. So I’ll happily take those young breakout arms that I’ve been talking a lot about over Rodriguez. I’ve left him ahead of the other high upside but risky guys such as Nick Lodolo and Kodai Senga.
The pick still depends on the league type. If I can grab Rodriguez in the 11th round and then immediately stash him on IL and replace him when the draft ends, I’d consider that. I’d like to be using roster spots searching for breakout SPs in April anyways, so I don’t mind having an SP already on IL in those cases. Of course, you have the bigger risk that he doesn’t get back healthy at any point. It’s still not something I’m looking to do, but if he falls far enough I’d consider it.
If you don’t have IL slots or only have 1-2, I’d just pass on Rodriguez entirely. You’ll need those IL slots at some point, and it’s very unlikely at this point that he has a season you will be very upset you missed out on.
George Kirby
Right shoulder inflammation
This one doesn’t sound as bad as elbow soreness. There’s no structural problem, but yeah, starting the year on the IL with a shoulder issue is not a good start.
Kirby has been very healthy to this point in his career.
Innings by Year
2022: 157
2023: 191
2024: 191
He has never been on the MLB IL. I’m not sure if that’s good news, but maybe it says something about his body’s ability to recover? Or maybe he was #DUE.
Either way, Kirby falls a long way in the rankings out of the top ten. I’ve put him at #42 between Cristopher Sanchez and Yusei Kikuchi. The best case scenario is that he misses a few weeks and then comes back and goes the rest of the way as a top 15 SP. That would make him a steal anywhere after round 6 or 7. The worst case scenario is that he only makes a handful of starts this year and just never gets healthy.
It’s a risk I’m willing to take, again, provided that we have 4+ IL slots to use.
Gerrit Cole
Tests on right elbow
I have no idea what this means. This came out while I was asleep last night. Here’s my expert analysis: It could be nothing, or it could be something.
We’ll have to wait and see. If you’re drafting today, uhhh good luck I guess. I’m more on the fade side of Cole anyway, so I’d just go ahead and tell you not to worry about taking him. This is not a good sign after the missed time last year.
We’ll get a lot more news on that in the coming days.
New Lineup Tracking Sheet
I put this together last night, it tracks the most common player in each lineup spot for each team.
So you can filter or scroll to a team and see their projected lineup, I guess. It might be weird since it’s still pretty early and teams haven’t put their whole lineups together, but it gives you some idea of what they’re looking to do.
I think I’ll do a podcast on that next week to check on some of the interesting points. There’s a lot to say about lineup spot in baseball and it’s importance for fantasy purposes. I’ve analyzed that here in the DFS strategy guide.
But I have to go now! It’s one of my last remaining Saturdays without daily notes or projections to do, so I’m taking the kids on a trip to Lansing, Michigan to see a show. So… goodbye!