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I’ve gotta hustle through this, so we’ll do a quick early slate breakdown and a most extensive one for the main slate tonight.
Weather
No issues to speak of.
Implied Totals
The Brewers will see Dustin May for this one, and they’re at the top of the board here - barely. The Mariners get a 3:40 p.m. Eastern date with Jeffrey Springs. The third offense, before a pretty big drop-off, is the Guardians taking on PJ Poulin and the Nats’ bullpen.
Stacks
Here are the team hitting projections:
The M’s clear it with a 71.6-point projection from their #1-#9, and a pretty good price-considered projection as well with the 2.14x value. But they’re by far the highest owned.
Springs has not been better against lefties than righties this year. I think he eventually will be, but there are plenty of lefties who dominate lefties without being able to get righties out, and that’s not the case with Springs.
So the Mariners are in play.
The Phillies have the highest ceiling projection up against Walker Buehler. I would rather stack the Philies at the lower ownership than the M’s. I think the park stuff gets weighed too much in by the field.
Buehler is awful with a 4.78 JA ERA this year. He can give up the long ball even at home, and the Phillies do a lot of that.
But the Phillies will have to get to the run scoring early, because if the Padres head into the 6th inning in a tight game, they have several elite arms coming out of that pen.
The Nationals, I think, have given up the most runs in the league. PJ Poulin is an opener, and the Nats bullpen is very bad behind him.
The Nationals will be able to mix-and-match to get their matchups right. But the Guardians have a few switch hitters in there to ease that. So I think the Guardians are a pretty good stack as well.
STACKS I’LL USE
Phillies vs. Buehler (10% ownership)
Brewers vs. May (10% ownership)
Athletics vs. Gilbert (9% ownership)
I guess I’m not too interested in the Mariners at 13% ownership. Their ceiling projection is pretty low, and Springs is half-decent at keeping the ball in the yard. So I’m not sure the ownership properly captures their actual ceiling. But anything can happen on a given day of baseball. We’re just trying to get the team that scores ten runs without being all over the high ownership.