August 16th DraftKings Analysis
Pitchers - Expensive
Justin Verlander $10,600 vs. CWS
He leads the slate with a 24.18 DK/G, but he does it with a more moderate strikeout rate of 25.7%. That makes me a little bit hesitant to pull the trigger on this huge price tag since a bad BABIP night hurts him more than other guys. There are plenty of options here too, so I kind of doubt I’ll end up on verlander
Nestor Cortes $9,900 vs. TB
Cortes has just a 26.8% K% on the year, so it’s kind of the same situation as Verlander - except Cortes’ average points scored is much lower at 19.5. The reason we might want to play him: this Rays’ lineup really stinks.
He’s faced the Rays twice and has been under 20 DK points both times, and he’s really been bouncing around this year - so it never feels all that safe to play him, but he’s the #2 projected pitcher nonetheless.
Robbie Ray $9,500 vs. LAA
This is probably the guy for me. He has a 28% K% and gets the elite matchup with the Angels. They are third-worst in the league in terms of opposing pitcher DK scoring, and Ray’s strikeout floor is so high, and he probably has the highest ceiling here as well.
Alek Manoah $9,200 vs. BAL
Not much upside for Manoah, as he’s gone over 30 points just tiwce this year, and he’s struggled a bit lately scoring 7, 20, and 10 points in his last three starts against DET, MIN, and BAL. I much prefer the three names above, but Manoah is there if this is the price point you need.
Pitchers - Cheaper
Zach Plesac $7,200 vs. DET
I think people will be interested here given what Civale did to the Tigers yesterday. I’m ont personally going to pay this for a dude with an 18% K%, but I can kinda see why some people would. He did just score 23 DraftKings points with seven strikeouts against the Tigers last week, I will take the way under on that number - but whatever, it’s a cheap play that probably can’t go absolutely terribly given his lack of walks.
Nick Pivetta $8,000 vs. PIT
This is basically the same story as Plesac - but with more strikeout upside (and more walks downside). Pivetta isn’t a good pitcher, I don’t think, and that’s not enough for the matchup to overcome for me - but it certainly wouldn’t be shocking to see him score 25 points tonight.
Justin Steele $6,200 vs. WSH
Here’s the guy I’d punt with. Steele has a reasonable 24% K% and hasn’t had a really bad start since late May. He only has a few really good starts since then too, but this is a really cheap price and a really good matchup - and the projections reflect that as he’s the best value score on there.
Not a TON of strikeouts in the lineup after you get past Luke Voit, but you can see the OPS’s just aren’t good here. I’m pretty tempted to go with Steele here in cash.
Team Offense
The Phillies aren’t on the slate, which leaves the Athletics at the top of the board here in terms of expected runs boost. That’s because they’re facing Kohei Arihara, who is… not good.
The only Athletic with a DK/PA above the league average is Seth Brown. He has been great since the All-Star break scoring 2.38 DK/PA (.302 AVG, 7 HR, 1 SB), so he’s a pretty sweet play at $3300. Sean Murphy would be the other competent hitter on this offense, but he’s $4800 and that’s a little wild to me. Skye Bolt can also score some points given his ability to steal bases, and he’s just $2000 so you can probably play him if he’s in the lineup.
We don’t play many Chicago Cubs, but they get Patrick Corbin tonight - so we might have to get into it. DraftKings has been pretty good with the pricing on them, however:
Willson Conteras $5700
Franmil Reyes $2800
Patrick Wisdom $5300
Seiya Suzuki $4500
Nico Hoerner $4600
Ian Happ $4300
Christopher Morel $5100
Wisdom and Reyes are the most interesting given their immense homer upside. Hoerner, Suzuki, and Happ are competent hitters but the price tags are right there probably above where they should even be, and I don’t think we can pay $5700 for Contreras.
The only names I care about on Cleveland are J-Ram ($5900) and Gimenez ($4900), but they’re both really expensive.
As for the Blue Jays, yeah they have a good run projection but Kremer really hasn’t been bad this year. Hitters have scored just 1.54 DK/PA in games he’s started against them, so I’m not going out of my way to play Blue Jays.
Catchers
Top Projections
Willson Contreras $5700, 8.88 points
Alejandro Kirk $4500, 8.41 points
Will Smith $5100, 7.30 points
Salvador Perez $4700, 6.87 points
MJ Melendez $4200, 6.85 points
Top Values
Reese McGuire $2000, 5.52 points
P.J. Higgins $2400, 5.43 points
Yadier Molina $2400, 5.06 points
Keibert Ruiz $2900, 6.07 points
Victor Caratini $2600, 5.17 points
My favorite: PJ Higgins
Hitting .380/.354/.510 this year and gets the Corbin matchup.
Rest of the post is behind a paywall, sign up now for this kind of analysis 3 days a week!