The most successful prop type so far in the projections has been the hitter strikeouts. We’ve had plenty of success in this market in the past, so much so that the books removed the lines altogether a couple of seasons ago.
They’re back, but mostly of the over variety. I did this mostly for myself, but I’m sharing it out with the paid subscribers.
What we have is this:
It’s on the matchups cheat sheet for all paid subs. I’ll link it below the paywall at the bottom if you don’t have it already.
Here’s the column breakdown:
Player = the hitter we’re talking about
Game = the game that hitter is in
Vs = the pitcher they’re facing
MLBDW K = my hitter K projection for this hitter today
Matchup SwStr% = this is the hitter’s SwStr% in their matchup (from the matchups model) against the pitcher that day. Remember, it’s not just against this pitcher, it’s against pitchers who are most similar to this guy, dating back three seasons to get a big enough sample
Matchup PC Sample = the number of pitches seen in that matchups models sample
Book = the sportsbook offering the line
OU = Over/Under (will always be “over” for now)
Line = the line for over 0.5 strikeouts
Price = the price for over 0.5 strikeouts
Bullpen K% = the average K% of the opponent’s available bullpen for that day
So we’re extremely likely to get a Nick Kurtz strikeout in this game.
My K Projection: 1.94
Matchup SwStr% vs. Gilbert: 12.7%
Seattle Bullpen K%: 26%
But DraftKings knows this, and prices him at -740 to strike out at least once. And I suppose that’s the RUB. They are snakes! First, they don’t even make that an easy-select option when you go to the BATTER PROPS menu on desktop. You have to go the game, and then scroll, and then find Strikeouts (Batter) to even find the lines. And then they put a ridiculous -740 price on Kurtz for the OVER, but don’t offer a reverse line for the UNDER.
The most likely dudes to strike out are going to be rip-off lines. But we can do some filtering and find some spots.
Here’s what I’m looking for:
High K projection (more than one)
High matchup SwStr% (more than 12%)
Line better than -400 or so (but you could do over 1.5 strikeouts on the worse lines, I suppose)
A high bullpen K% (24%+) is a plus, but not the most important thing since we can’t know exactly which bullpen pitchers the hitter will face
Hits today:
Giancarlo Stanton -329
Tyler Soderstrom -398
Roman Anthony -427
Matt Chapman -358
I’ll probably be mostly parlaying 3-5 of these together. Those four would get you around +120.
But you could filter to even more advantageous lines:
Jake Rogers -169
Ramon Laureano -190
Derek Hill -190
Or we could go big with a three-leg 2+ K parlay
Nick Kurtz (-114)
Oneil Cruz (+113)
Murakami (+134)
Parlay: +835
So that’s the beginning of it. We’ll use this sheet in some of the prop content moving forward, but it’s more for your own use and strategizing. Good luck!