I like the Pirates, I like projections, I like to have a little skin in the game, and I like these betting challenges people do.
You take a certain amount of money ($25 in my case, but you can do whatever), and the goal is to 10x it in a sequence of safe bets.
So why not try it? You could really dig into this and find the best lines from the whole slate, but I know the Pirates best, and that’s the team I’m watching. I’m mostly doing this for my own entertainment, but figured I’d drag you along as well.
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Starting with this:
Reds @ Pirates Over 4.5 Total Runs
Matt McLain 1+ Strikeout
I got this on DK for -265 just now:
If it hits, we’ll take the $34.43 and go into day two, betting the next Pirates game I decide on. We do that the whole way up until we either lose or end up with $250.
I’m guessing something funky will happen along the way and we won’t make it to 10x, but it will be fun to try it.
The bet is on McLain because he looks like a very likely strikeout victim tonight. He’s at a 13% SwStr% in the matchups model against Mlodzinski. Mlodzinski has been pretty good against righties with a 24% K%, and McLain has a 29% K% against right handed pitching.
The Pirates also won a clean game last night, they didn’t have to use their main bullpen arms. This one is projected to be tight, so there should be some Mason Montgomery and Gregory Soto appearances, both of whom can punch dudes out.
As for the over 4.5, it’s as low as you can buy it. I have trouble seeing a game with Rhett Lowder and Mlodzinski being a 2-1 affair. Mlod is good for an inning or two, and then the wheels fall off. And the middle of the bullpen is the weakest part of this Pirates roster. They’ll probably need 1-3 innings out of dudes who just aren’t very good.
Lowder is a contact-heavy righty, just the kind the Pirates feast on with their foursome of very competent left-handed sticks. And with Nick Gonzales and Konnor Griffin in the lineup, there really aren’t more than 1-2 truly bad hitters in the lineup (looking at you, Henry Davis and Marcell Ozuna - both of whom homered last night).
EDIT: Just before publishing, I realized they removed the McLain bet. So we need another one if you’re dying to follow along.
Throw on Oneil Cruz 1+ H+R+SB. He has 10 steals, 33 hits, and 23 runs in 31 games this year. So he’s hitting this a very high percentage of the time. And this is the spot we like for him, low strikeout righties on the mound. He will lead off with those solid lefty bats + Gonzales behind him.
Let’s hope we can get something going here and enjoy some Pirates baseball over the next several days! Argh!