Betting Bucs: $25 to $250, Day 3
Through two days, we draw closer to the 10x Bettin' Bucs payday
We’re on a quest to turn $25 (or one unit) into $250 (ten units) betting on Pirates games, since that’s the team I watch most and know the most about.
Day 1:
Cashed that one for $36.55
Day 2:
Cashed that one (barely… Burns outdid Ashcraft by one strikeout in a sick pitcher’s duel) for $63.62.
So we take $63.62 into day three.
This one is not likely to be a pitcher’s duel. It’s Bubba Chandler against Eduardo Rodriguez.
Bubba has been wild. So wild that the strikeouts haven’t been able to pile up. He has one of the lowest K-BB% among starters this year at 5.4%. Both of these pitchers are throwing a bunch of balls (E-Rod at 39%, Bubba at 38%), and they have a 13% BB% collectively.
The Diamondbacks aren’t the most patient lineup (47% Swing%, 7.2% BB%). But I would guess the book on Chandler is to cool it with the swinging. Hitters have a 36% Swing% against him on 0-0 counts. And that’s actually a bit high. The league average is 31% first pitch swing.
Here’s league Swing% and zone rates by count:
So on your average 0-0 pitch, it’s in the zone 52% of the time and swung on 31% of the time. Against Chandler:
So he’s throwing the first pitch in the zone just fine, and hitters are happy to swing at that first pitch fastball when they get one.
Chandler’s problems have been in three-ball counts. He’s a little tentative to go right down the pipe, I guess, and he’s around a 50% zone% in three-ball counts where the league is around 60%.
His pitch mix in three-ball counts looks like this:
Mostly heaters, as you’d expect. But for some reason he just like craps his pants with the fastball command. A 39% Ball% with the fastball in three-ball counts. The league is under 30%.
I guess you could call this good news… he can throw the pitch in the zone, he just hasn’t been able to do it when it matters most.
He’s too predictable, obviously. 55% overall fastball usage doesn’t really work in the Majors, even for an elite fastball (elite in its characteristics, not results) like Chandler’s.
As for Eduardo:
He can throw his fastball for strikes, but nothing else. A Ball% above 36% on every other pitch. But his three-ball Ball% is much better at 27%. I don’t think he’ll struggle with walks for very long.
The Pirates lineup profiled before the season as one that would struggle against lefties. Some of the gains that Oneil Cruz has made have helped a ton. Their splits aren’t stark.
→ vs RHB: .742 OPS, 22% K%, .329 xwOBA, 46% GB%
→ vs LHB: .703 OPS, 27% K%, .320 xwOBA, 47% GB%
The contact stuff is clear. They’re five points worse in K% against lefties. E-Rod hasn’t been getting whiffs (6.9% SwStr%), but his 21% K% last year make you think this current 15% should come up, and that will probably start tonight.
MATCHUPS MODEL
Mixed results on the Arizona side. But it doesn’t matter that much since Chandler’s command dictates so much of how this will go tonight.
On the Pirates side:
Not many hard hit balls at all. It’s mostly orange, and there are a handful of high SwStr% there. We like betting on strikeouts from Brandon Lowe and Oneil Cruz against lefties, that’s for sure.
Konnor Griffin has been a lot better lately. We don’t have much data, but so far he’s not hit lefties well and he’s done absolutely nothing against changeups (.085 xwOBA against that pitch).
I think that’s something to look for, but we probably can’t say there’s enough information to dictate a leg of the bet.
I want to keep this thing rolling. I’m not trying to get to $250 in the next 2-3 bets. So we’ll play it very safe.
We like E-Rod strikeouts and we can probably take the free square with a walk or two from Bubba. I doubt we’re offered the over 0.5 BB though, let’s check it.
They used to give up alternate lines on walks… but now we’d have to hope for THREE walks for +130. Not going to do that.
Let’s go a little riskier than I wanted since we don’t have an over 1.5 BB for Chandler. Geraldo Perdomo should be leading off for the Snakes. And there should be some traffic on the bases. He’s a plate discipline specialist with more walks than strikeouts this year. So, great chance for a hit or a run scored. But he’s not much of an RBI guy with little power and at the top of the lineup.
So we’ll throw on Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 H+R+SB (-370) in addition to Eduardo Rodriguez 4+ Strikeouts (-390).
That combines for a -195 parlay.
We’ll be up for $97 if it cashes. And hopefully we hit it before 11:00pm, because that’s when I’ll be very much asleep.