Betting Bucs: $25 to $250, Day 4
Moving on to day four after a close-ish call on day three!
Last weekend, I took $25 and decided to see if we could tie together a bunch of clever bets in a row to end up with $250. We’re 3/3 for so far and heading into some pretty large bets. So we want to take it very slow here, just make sure we’re hitting these smaller bets and hope variance goes mostly in our way to get to the 7-10 in a row this will take to accomplish the goal.
Day 1:
Cashed that one for $36.55
Day 2:
Day 3 (last night):
E-Rod went for seven strikeouts and had his fourth in the fourth inning. Geraldo Perdomo made me go to bed nervous, but he doubled home a couple of runs in the sixth and that took care of it.
So we have $97.10 to roll into day four.
The Pirates have a real bounce-back mentality about them. They lost the first two games of the season and then didn’t drop consecutive games until last week, when they went off for five straight losses.
And they have a pretty nice advantage in this one.
They send the league’s best healthy pitcher (knock on wood) to the mound to face Michael Soroka, who is exactly the type of matchup this Pirates lineup feasts on.
Soroka has problems with left-handed power. Going back to last year:
→ vs RHB: .287 xwOBA, 2.7% HR/BF
→ vs LHB: .330 xwOBA, 3.1% HR/BF
It’s not a massive issue for him, and Arizona isn’t the easier place to go yard. Chase Field ranks way down the list for left-handed power on the park factors.
We’re not going to be betting any homers on this quest. Although, one Brandon Lowe bomb could get us real close to $250. But we’re not going to do it!
But there’s a ton of juice in this Pirates lineup for this spot:
Green everywhere!
So we like the Pirates offense tonight, and we like the Pirates chances to win this one. Especially when you see the matchups model for Arizona:
It’s green vs. red. Good vs. bad.
But it’s baseball. Anything can happen. Skenes has been roughed up twice now, so he’s human.
So here’s what it’s gonna be. We like the Pirates offense, and we like the Pirates pitcher. But I’m not afraid to take a huge -450 at this point in the game.
Pirates Over 1.5 Runs Scored
Pirates +3.5 on run line
That parlays to -450. That would turn our $97.10 into $118.67. Baby steps!
O1.5 or 2.5? Also, only allowing singles, not parlay.