Betting Today's Card: A Daily-Use Guide to the MLB DW Season Long Data Tool
And how to use it for betting.
Betting Today’s Card: A Daily-Use Guide to the MLB DW Season Long Data Tool
This article is for the bettor who opens the sportsbook in the morning and wants to make money on tonight’s slate. Forget futures, forget season-long awards, forget August power rankings. The question we are answering is simple: given the data in this workbook, what bets should I be making today, and how do I build them? We have tools that combine this data, but I want to share how I’m using this in order to get values on bets today.
The workbook is wide, but for daily betting you only care about one thing in every tab: does this number tell me something the sportsbook has not priced into tonight’s lines yet? Everything below is built around that question.
The Daily Betting Markets You Are Attacking
Before you open a single tab, know what you are hunting for. On any given night you can bet starting pitcher strikeout overs and unders, outs recorded, earned runs allowed, hitter home runs, hitter total bases, hitter hits, hitter RBI, stolen bases, first five inning lines (both run line and total), full game moneylines, run lines, team totals, full game totals, NRFI (no run in the first), and YRFI (yes run in the first). Every play you make tonight will fall into one of those buckets. The workbook is built to give you a fast read on each one. (We have talked about NRFI and YRFI). Don’t bet them.
How to Read Each Tab for Tonight’s Card
This is how I read each tab
YesterdaySP is the first place you look every morning.
You are not betting on these pitchers tonight, but you are betting against the public’s reaction to them. If a starter posted a 5 ER line with a 22 percent swinging strike rate and a 36 percent CSW, the box score lied. The book will sharpen the next time he pitches, but for hitters who faced him tonight, is the public is overpricing their value?
Use YesterdaySP to fade hitters who feasted on a guy who actually pitched well, and to identify pitchers whose true performance was hidden so you can target them in their next start later in the week.
YesterdayHit is the same idea on the offense side.
A hitter who went 0 for 4 with three barrels and a 108 max exit velocity is tonight’s value play. His hit, total base, and home run props will could be soft because the public sees the slash line, not the contact quality. A hitter who went 3 for 4 with no barrels and a soft max EV is overpriced tonight. Pull this tab every morning and write down the names that fall in each bucket.
Proj v Actual is your daily hitter prop engine.
The Diff column tells you who is underperforming their pre-season projection by the largest margin.
Sort it, take the top fifteen names with negative diffs and elite OPS projections, and check whether any of them are in tonight’s lineup. Those are your priority hit and total base prop targets. The hitters with the largest positive diffs are who you fade tonight, especially in inflated home run markets.
Long Relief Tracker drives daily bullpen reads.
When you see an opener listed for tonight or a starter who routinely throws 60 to 75 pitches, this tab tells you which long man is rested behind him and what his JA ERA looks like.
If the recommended long man is good, the over on the game total is in trouble, and the F5 over becomes more attractive than the full game over. If the long man is bad and overworked, the back half of the game opens up for hitter props and team total overs.
Stuff+ Comp is the fastest way to find a pitcher whose lines have not adjusted yet.
If tonight’s starter is in the top of the diff column with a three or four point gain year over year, his strikeout total is probably set on last year’s stuff. Consider taking the K over. If he is at the bottom with a negative diff, his K total is too high and his ERA is about to catch up. Fade him tonight.
VeloData confirms whatever Stuff+ Comp told you.
Look up tonight’s starters. If their fastball is up a full mile per hour from last year, that is a real signal and supports a K over. If a slider or changeup is down, it usually shows up as fewer whiffs and more contact, which feeds team total overs for the opponent.
SaveOpps is your closer prop tab and your tight-game radar.
If tonight’s likely closer has a sub-2.00 ERA and 40 percent K rate over a decent sample, his “save recorded” prop could have real value when his team is favored by 1.5 runs or less. If the closer has been shaky, the opposing team’s late-game live dog price gets interesting, and the team total under on the favored side becomes a real consideration.
HitterStatComp is the daily confirmation layer for your hitter targets.
Once Proj v Actual gives you a name, jump here and check the current year row. If Bat Speed and EV90 are intact compared to last year, the underperformance is luck, and you fire the prop. If Bat Speed has dropped two or more ticks, the player has a real problem, and you skip the bet entirely, no matter what Proj v Actual says.
Z-Stats is the daily pitcher confirmation tab. This shows you pitcher stats limited to only the pitches they’ve thrown in the strike zone. This is where reliably high strikeout rates come from. We want guys who don’t need to go fishing for their whiffs and soft contact.
Pull up tonight’s starters. A starter with an xwOBA under .280 and a Zone Score above 115 is genuinely good even if his ERA does not show it. Take his K over and his side on the F5 line. A starter with a high xwOBA and a low Zone Score whose ERA looks fine is a fade tonight.
LUGrids is non-negotiable for any hitter prop. This shows you the full season and last two week’s worth of team lineups. Broken down like this:
Before you click bet on a hit, total base, run, or RBI prop, look up the player here and confirm where he is hitting in the order tonight. Hitting eighth instead of second can be the difference between cashing and losing the prop, no matter how good the matchup is.
Huge H+R+RBI boosts go to guys who are hitting 2nd tonight but usually hit 7th, for an example.
JA ERA is the single most important tab for daily pitcher betting.
The Diff column tells you who has been unlucky or lucky relative to true skill. A starter with an actual ERA of 5.20 and a JA ERA of 3.30 is a buy tonight in every market: K over, F5 ML, full game ML if priced right, and team total under for the opponent. A starter at 2.80 actual and 4.10 JA ERA is a fade in those same markets, and his opponent’s team total over becomes a real play.
FF Velo is for K props specifically.
If tonight’s starter has effective velocity two or more miles per hour above his average, he is throwing a fastball that plays up. His strikeout total is the cleanest play on the board. Combine with Z-Stats and JA ERA for full conviction.
You can also get an idea of which guys have extra gas in the tank with this. Take Chris Sale for an example:
His fastball averages 95.4, but he pumps it up to 99.4 as a max and 97.4 as 90th. He has high-90s, he just doesn’t use it to save himself. But when he’s in a big spot in the 6th or 7th, he can ramp it up and give something to the hitter they haven’t seen all night.
HR Susc is the most important tab for tonight’s home run prop slate in this tool. That “Susc” stands for “suceptibility”.
It is pre-computed by date, pitcher, opponent, park, and handedness. Open it, filter to today, take the top ten names by HR risk, and write down each pitcher’s vs RHB and vs LHB number. Then go to the opposing team’s lineup and identify the power bats hitting from the side that exploits the risk. Those are your home run prop names tonight.
The vs RHB and vs LHB split is what separates this tab from the public discourse, because the average bettor is not thinking about handedness when they take an HR prop.
H_Scheds has a daily use even though it lists upcoming schedules. It shows you the quality of pitcher coming for these teams over the next ten days, judged by average (regressed) JA ERA of that pitcher group.
The team facing the worst probable pitcher in the next 24 hours is your team total over target. The team facing the best probable pitcher tomorrow is who you may want to fade in tonight’s market if there is a price disconnect.
But this is most useful for season-long fantasy when you’re planning ahead for some hitter streamers.
HRSBPace is your stolen base prop tab. This takes everybody’s current HR and SB pace and adds them together at the end. It’s another season-long fantasy resource just to see guys who are doing a lot of good for roto leagues.
But it’s useful for daily as well. Filter for the highest 650 PA SB names and check whose team is playing tonight, who they are facing, and whether the opposing catcher and pitcher are vulnerable to the run game. Stolen base props are the most consistently underpriced market in baseball, and this tab is the fastest way to find tonight’s runners.
Ownership is a daily soft line filter. It’s just the current (sometimes a day or two out of date, but close) ownership rates in fantasy leagues.
Once you have a list of hitter targets from Proj v Actual and HitterStatComp, sort by Ownership. The lower the ownership, the softer the prop line tends to be, because sportsbooks lean on public sentiment when pricing role players. If two players look identical and one is owned 35 percent while the other is owned 95 percent, bet the 35 percent name first.
Team xwOBA drives daily team totals and full game totals. It takes team xwOBA (offense) and team xwOBA allowed (all pitchers) and puts them together:
When you have a high xwOBA offense facing a high xwOBA Allowed pitching staff (or a starter with a high JA ERA), the team total over and the game over are both in play. When a bottom-five offense faces a top-five pitching staff, the team total under is on the board, and the game under sets up well too.
SP Luck is your daily regression read.
Focus on the L15 columns because they reflect what the market just saw. A starter with a .345 L15 BABIP, a 38 percent L15 RISP hit rate, and a 17 percent L15 HR/FB has been hammered by bad luck. His next start is a buy in every market. Reverse signals are a fade tonight.
Auto SP Ranks is your daily SP cheat sheet.
Look up both starters in tonight’s game and compare scores. If one is 0.3 or more points higher than the other, the higher-ranked SP’s team has a strong F5 ML edge if the price is not already inflated. This is one of the fastest plays to find each morning.
PR_Hitters and PR_Pitchers are sanity checks. It’s just a standard roto fantasy league player rater.
Before you bet a name brand that has struggled, look up its score and dollar value. If the Score is still elite, he is fine, and the slump is variance. If the Score has collapsed, the public is paying for the jersey, and you can fade him.
The Morning Workflow for Tonight’s Card
Start with H_Scheds and Auto SP Ranks to grade tonight’s starting pitcher matchups. Move to JA ERA and SP Luck (L15 column) to identify your regression buys and fades. Cross-reference with Z-Stats and Stuff+ Comp to confirm the underlying skill is real. That gives you your pitcher side bets: K overs and unders, F5 ML and totals, and full game ML or totals where the price has not adjusted.
Next, switch to HR Susc and filter for today. Write down the top ten pitchers by HR risk with their handedness splits. Pull up the opposing lineups and identify the power bats hitting from the dangerous side. Confirm each one with HitterStatComp to make sure Bat Speed and EV90 are intact, then check LUGrids to confirm where they are hitting tonight. Those are your HR prop names.
For hits and total bases, run Proj v Actual to find underperformers, confirm contact quality with HitterStatComp, confirm lineup spot with LUGrids, and sort by Ownership to find soft lines. For stolen bases, pull HRSBPace, identify high pace names playing tonight, and check the opposing battery.
For team totals and game totals, use Team xwOBA against each starter’s JA ERA. For NRFI and YRFI, look at the top of the order for both teams in LUGrids, combine with each starter’s first-inning history if available, and use HR Susc to flag first-inning risk.
Finally, before you place any bet, run a single sanity check in PR_Hitters or PR_Pitchers to make sure the player you are firing on is actually still a real player and not a name brand on the decline.
A Same-Day Worked Example
Tonight’s slate. Pitcher A is going at home and the book has his K total at 5.5. He is 2 and 4 with a 5.20 ERA. You open JA ERA and his number is 3.30. SP Luck shows a .350 L15 BABIP and a 19 percent L15 HR/FB. Z-Stats has him at a .258 xwOBA with a 117 Zone Score. Auto SP Ranks has him in the top twenty. Stuff+ Comp shows a positive 2.4 diff. FF Velo has him at plus 1.8 effective. He is facing a team ranked 27th in Team xwOBA. You take the K over 5.5, you take his F5 ML, and you take the opposing team total under if it is offered.
Same night. Pitcher B is on the road. Book has him at a 6.5 K total. His ERA is 2.80, his JA ERA is 4.10, his L15 BABIP is .240. Z-Stats has him at a .335 xwOBA. Stuff+ Comp shows a negative 1.8 diff and VeloData says his fastball is down a full mph. He is facing a top five offense in a hitter’s park, and HR Susc has him ranked number three with a 6.4 percent vs RHB risk. You fade the K over and take the under. You take the opposing team total over. You go to HitterStatComp and LUGrids to confirm the opposing right handed power bats are in the top five of the order with intact Bat Speed and EV90, and you take two of them on HR props.
That is two games and seven legitimate plays, all sourced from the workbook in under thirty minutes.
This is how I look at it. Now the cool part is this is taking the data and moving it into the Daily Matchups Sheet this will give you a good start. Check at the bottom of the post below the paywall for access to that loaded up daily betting sheet.
Daily Mistakes to Avoid
Do not bet a player without confirming his lineup spot in LUGrids on the day of the game. A demoted hitter destroys every prop. Do not read one tab in isolation. Every play tonight should be confirmed by at least two tabs, ideally three. Do not chase last night’s stat line. YesterdaySP and YesterdayHit are for finding hidden value, not for jumping on the loudest box score. Do not ignore handedness in HR Susc. The vs RHB and vs LHB splits are where the public is laziest and where you make your money. Do not assume a closer prop is safe just because his team is favored. Check SaveOpps for recent usage and rate stats before you fire. Do not double dip on correlated plays without realizing it. A K over, an F5 ML, and a full game ML on the same pitcher are not three independent edges, they are one edge taken three times. Size accordingly.
The Ten Questions to Ask Before You Place Any Daily Bet
Is the market pricing yesterday’s box score, or the underlying skill?
What does JA ERA say about tonight’s starters?
What does SP Luck (L15) say is about to regress?
Who is ranked in the top ten of HR Susc tonight, and on which handedness side?
Which underperforming hitters from Proj v Actual are in tonight’s lineup with intact Bat Speed and EV90?
Where are my hitter targets batting in the order tonight per LUGrids?
Are velocity and Stuff+ moving in the same direction for tonight’s starter?
Is the closer side of this tight game stable per SaveOpps?
Is there a long relief edge that changes the game total math?
Has the public found this player yet per Ownership?
Answer those ten honestly before every bet, and tonight’s card becomes a series of small, confirmed edges instead of guesses.
The Daily Mindset
You are not predicting the future. You are pricing tonight’s slate more accurately than the sportsbook did. The book leans on public perception, recent box scores, and name recognition. You have JA ERA, Z-Stats, SP Luck, HR Susc, HitterStatComp, and LUGrids. Use them, confirm across multiple tabs, respect lineup spot and handedness, and bet the soft side of every line where your data and the market disagree. Do that every night, and the math works in your favor.