Blue Jays Give Dylan Cease Massive Seven Year Deal
Thanksgiving IPA driven analysis on the Dylan Cease news
If a single beer could sponsor MLB DW offseason content, it would definitely be Southern Tier 2XMAS. A delicious seasonal IPA. But it’s only available in the upper-right section of the country, I guess, so they’d never sponsor me. Nobody will ever sponsor me, who are we kidding. But I love this beer.
So this quick and messy analysis is brought to you by that beer. Or at least through the fingers that are controlled by a brain that is under the influence of a whopping two cans of the stuff
It’s a long contract, although at a $30 million AAV, not far off what the FanGraphs crowd source thing was guessing:
Gotta love a good crowd source. There are deferrals on the deal, which makes a big difference in the long-term finances for the team. So, as is often the case, the headline makes you stutter for a second, but really, it wasn’t an awful deal whatsoever by the Blue Jays.
This is the game you have to play if you want the big names. You have to commit long-term money to them. I have three kids and zero college funds, so that tells you what I know about long-term money. So yeah, please become a paid subscriber so my kids can go to college. Just kiddin,g but seriously.
I’ve written on Cease a few other places already this offseason. But in case you’ve forgotten, the guy had an awesome strikeout rate and a K-BB% over 20%. His 16.5% SwStr% was elite, and the walk stuff wasn’t out of control by any means. But he ended up with a 4.55 ERA.
The whole list of indicators:
→ SIERA: 3.58
→ xFIP: 3.56
→ FIP: 3.56
→ JA ERA: 3.12
→ JA SIERA: 3.00
The trouble was a .321 BABIP and a 25.7% RISP H% (69% LOB%). He was unlucky. But he also tipped pitched or just hung a bunch of hittable fastballs over the plate or something. He gave up a 1.13 HR/9, and plenty of those homers came with very bad timing.
Cease was clearly a buy-low option. He’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, and he’s delivered 32+ starts in each of the last five seasons. That’s an incredibly valuable asset.
But as we know, pitchers are only healthy until they’re not. Five healthy years don’t say much about what the next five years will look like. But yeah, I’d be pretty pumped to have Cease on my favorite team, and this is a nice get for the Blue Jays. Good for Toronto, they got a taste last year and are trying to repeat it. They’re in full GO FOR IT mode with the Vlad extension and the aggressiveness in free agency. You’d think that Bo Bichette will re-sign with them. And if not, I’d imagine they’re not done getting other bigger names.
Fantasy wise, you’ll have to pay an SP2 or SP3 price for Cease this year. He’s the SP20 in early ADP.
Going from San Diego to Toronto is a downward move in park factors.
But honestly, park factors kinda suck. They seem to change every year, which makes no sense. I don’t think these sites are doing it right (if there’s a right way to do it). Point being, I don’t care much about a three-point move. It only matters at the extremes, in my opinion.
So yeah, Cease is a good guy to have as an SP3 in fantasy. The strikeouts are great, he’s just some good luck away from having a really, really nice season.
This has been Thanksgiving Eve baseball analysis. Sweet dreams.