Breakout Hitter Watch
A look into five potential breakout hitters for immediate fantasy league consideration
I am freaking bored today, but I cannot leave the computer until at least 3:30. So here I am to hit the dashboards and find some interesting hitters to write about.
Agustin Ramirez, Miami Marlins
My leaguemates get all pissy when I feature guys that are on my own team in the daily notes or on my Twitter profile. So I’m making sure to lead this post off with Agustin Ramirez. I’ve said a lot about him, as have many others. But he’s still really low owned (24% on Yahoo). I’m sure he’s owned in competitive leagues, but he is a catcher - so maybe not. People are hesitant to up and grab a second catcher when they already have one.
I’ll give some thoughts on where I’d value him at the catcher position at the end of this. But first, let’s refresh those numbers.
→ .262/.318/.525, 16.7% K%, 7.6% BB%, 10% Brl%, .358 xwOBA
The batting average was brought up 23 points by a four-hit game on Wednesday. But the expected batting average has been really strong all year, and currently sits above .280. The guy has the most important combination of skills I like for in a hitter
→ Contact (80% Contact%, 88.5% Z-Contact%)
→ Power (10% Brl%, 108.8 EV90)
Lots of rookie hitters have trouble lifting the ball. That’s sort of true with Ramirez and his lower 20% FB% (league average FB% = 26%), but it’s not low because the GB% is high. His ground ball rate is only 42%. So he’s just hitting a lot of line drives (29% LD%, five points above average), and that’s a good thing.
He has just one steal in the Majors so far, but had five in the minors before getting called up - so that is a part of his game. I don’t think he’ll be a 20 steal guy, but it’s reasonable to think he can get to a 10-15 steal pace, and that’s rare to find at catcher these days.
So where would I rank him at catcher if doing the ranks today? The no-doubters above him:
Cal Raleigh
William Contreras
Those are the only two names that come very, very easy to rank over Agustin right now. But I’m not saying I’d put him at #3. The next group that probably would have to go above him:
Yainer Diaz
Adley Rutschman
Logan O’Hoppe
Willson Contreras
Rutschman and Diaz have not been anything special early on. And O’Hoppe and Contreras have their issues, but those are still safe bets for production moving forward, and I’m still not willing to say that Ramirez is super duper safe.
After that top five, I think Ramirez would be in the picture. The group I’d put him in:
Ivan Herrera
Salvador Perez
Shea Langeliers
Drake Baldwin
Those are all impact bats, or at least potential impact bats. Things aren’t going well for Salvy right now, and Baldwin doesn’t play every day. Ramirez has been getting plenty of DH reps, so he’s been a fixture at the top of the lineup. I’d say he’d end up in my top ten with ease - and he’d probably settle in around #7 or #8 right now, and I wouldn’t be hesitant to move him up further and further if the power production and contact skills stick around.
Jasson Dominguez, New York Yankees
Dominguez was a guy we drafted with high hopes this year. He has been in the prospect conversation for so long, and this was clearly the year he’d get real run at the big league level. His power + speed combination was very intriguing. So how has it gone? Overall, not great:
183 PA, .239/.339/.413, .752 OPS, 28.4% K%, 13.1% BB%, 6 HR, 7 SB
This was a guy with just 100 MLB PAs coming into this year. So he hadn’t had a ton of experience against the highest level of competition. And those 100 PAs were scattered as well - he had never really been given a solidified job to have time to adjust and figure things out.
He’s getting that now. And there has been steady positive movement:
Even with some of the struggles, he’s been getting on base at a good clip and stealing bags when he’s had the opportunity. He’s had a nice May, so let’s compare some stats from before and after that month change.
Stat → Before May → After May
K% → 32.7% → 22.8%
BB% → 10.6% → 16.5%
Brl% → 6.9% → 12.5%
Swing% → 49.9% → 49.8%
Chase% → 30.7% → 31.9%
xwOBA → .300 → .388
Z-Cont% → 80.6% → 82.2%
Huge improvements in K% and Brl% - and that’s fantastic to see. The skills are great (75th percentile bat speed, 82nd percentile sprint speed), so if these K% and Brl% improvements are sustained, he’s going to be a pretty awesome roto fantasy player.
Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels
There’s little chance that Neto is available in any of my reader’s leagues. But I do have to point out just how good this guy has been.
There are only ten players dating back to last season with 30 homers and 30 steals. And Neto is one of them with his 32 homers and 38 steals over these last 758 plate appearances.
We were worried about the shoulder health coming into this season, but the guy is clearly fully recovered. He has nine homers in 156 PA with a .281/.321/.534 slash line on a 16.8% Brl%, and he possesses a 106.9 EV90 right now.
The one thing that could hurt him is that he is striking out a lot right now (29.5% K% this year). The zone contact rate is solid but nothing special (80%), and the overall contact rate is a touch low at 72%. The .348 BABIP is bloasted, so yu’re probably looking at more of a .260-.270 hitter than the .280-.290 guy he’s shown so far this year. But hey, the xBA checks in above .285 - so he’s great. Neto looks like a five-category stud. And I’d be “buying high” on the 24 year old in keeper/dynasty leagues.
Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays
I will have to continue to eat the crow on my early Chandler Simpson criticism. I said that I didn’t think he’d be able to hit enough to get on base to let those steals pile up. But so far he’s been just fine at that. He’s hit .294 with a .320 OBP, and that has led to 16 steals in 126 PAs. That’s a pace for 70+ steals over a season. That kind of pace makes you must-own in any roto league regardless of anything else.
It probably doesn’t need said - but Simpson is a legitimate zero in power. You won’t get homers from him, I mean you probably won’t get a single homer from him. So you do have to keep that in mind. You’d probably like to have a home run stud or two on any team you have Simpson on.
The key point with Simpson is the contact rate. With the kind of speed he has, all you want is balls in play. And to be more specific, you want balls hit as line drives or on the ground. His fly balls are going to turn into outs at a very high rate with the lack of power. But his ground balls will turn into singles at a very high rate because of the speed.
And so far, the batted ball profile is pretty close to perfect.
→ GB%: 59%
→ LD%: 30%
→ FB%: 7%
Sure, we’d be happy to trade some ground balls for line drives, but there’s no better player in the league to get a ground ball from than Simpson - probably the quickest guy in the league getting from the box to first base.
The zone contact rate is 92.4%. That’s kept the strikeout rate below 11%. Those are elite numbers.
There’s even some room for regression here. If he can just be a 14-16% K% guy, the steals will come in bunches. And with 128 PAs under his belt with this low of a strikeout rate, we can feel very good about Simpson maintaining super-elite stolen base production.
Stolen Base Leaders, All Levels, 2024-2025
Chandler Simpson 128
Elly De La Cruz 84
Yhoswar Garcia 82
Tommy Hawke 82
Jonah Cox 82
Jakob Marsee 82
Enrique Bradfield Jr. 80
Brett Baty, New York Mets
The Mark Vientos thing has gone south for the Mets. He’s been awful, and that's opened the door for Brett Baty to get more reps. He made the roster out of camp, but struggled mightily. He was sent down to AAA in late April, but he only ended up playing two games there before getting recalled. What changed, I don’t know, but Baty has been pretty good in the Majors since this latest recall.
61 PA, .281/.328/.561, 23% K%, 4.9% BB%, 5 HR, 1 SB
That’s a homer every 12 PAs. He has an 18.6% Brl% with a 73% Contact% and a .381 xwOBA in that time. The power numbers are emphatically there in these 61 PAs.
The splits are a question mark. He hasn’t shown much ability to hit lefties in his young career (38 wRC+). He’s faced 16 lefties in May, and has done well, slashing .286/.375/.286 with no homers, but no strikeouts. So he has shortened up and been getting balls in play - and that’s a pretty good approach I’d say.
The strikeouts have been a bit of an issue against righties even while he’s had this good run (31% K%), but when he’s gotten to the ball - it’s been glorious with five homers in 45 PA and a .376 xwOBA.
The raw power is not in question, and the other recent improvements we’ve seen in May give us some belief that he could be a legitimately interesting fantasy league bat from here on out.
Thanks for reading!
Good stuff. I don't think Vientos is on the IL, though!