Breakout SPs with the Andersons
Agreeing with a man I'm often confused for
James Anderson recently created this video for Rotowire:
And it shook me. In a good way.
If James Anderson weren’t one of the best in the business, a dude doing this stuff at a high level for way longer than I have, I’d be SUSPICIOUS of this video. He gave ten breakout SP picks. If I made the same exact video, I guarantee I would have landed on at least five of the same names, and quite possibly seven.
It makes me feel good about myself for one of two reasons.
James Anderson stole my work, and imitation is the sincerest form of flattery
A proven, sharp fantasy baseball analyst and player sees the same things as me
There’s like a 1.3% chance of the first one. I think we’re just looking at the same stuff, thinking similarly, and coming to the same conclusions. But it does make me even more convicted on these late-round SP picks.
I REPEAT - I am not accusing James of stealing my work. Of course, he didn’t do that. And if he did, hell yeah, man. Imagine crying about someone else copying your meaningless fantasy baseball stuff!
So let’s go through them again! I haven’t mentioned some of these names very much since their team previews, and some of those team previews were published several months ago now, so a refresh can’t hurt. Unless you’re in my home league, in that case - you don’t need this. Go away, Clint!
CADE CAVALLI, NATIONALS
The Nationals were the third team I looked at in the team previews series because they sucked so many eggs last year. So I was looking at Cavalli at some point in November, and I loved the dude.
A 13.8% SwStr% with a 55.1% GB%. I love that so much. You shouldn’t be able to feel emotional about numbers, and I typically don’t feel emotional about much of anything, but that was getting me a little bit. Only six pitchers in the damn league went >13% SwStr% and >50% GB%.
Sanchez, Yamamoto, Eovaldi, Snell, Ashcraft, Cavalli
And the strike-throwing was the cherry on top. Or the whipped cream or something.
It was a pretty small sample size so maybe he had just gotten lucky, I thought. But then you look at the pitch mix and you see this big velo and nice mix of pitches.
97 on the fastballs (two of them!), 86 on the curve, and big SwStr% marks on the curveball and changeup. The hits kept on coming.
I was easily first in the pool of publishing draft prep articles for 2026. So I figured I’d just lead the charge and Cavalli would become a pretty trendy breakout pick. I don’t spend too much time on other people’s content, so maybe I’ve missed some people, but I haven’t heard this dude’s name come up hardly at all. And the ADP has held steady through the offseason:
That was starting to make me think I’ve completely missed something, or I’m way overreacting, or I’m dumb, or something. But now my cousin James backs me up, and I feel reinvigorated.
Cavalli is the Nats best SP right now with Gore out of town, so I think he’ll pile up as many innings as he can handle. That also makes him their likely opening day starter. That would line him up for matchups at the Cubs and then either at the Phillies or at home against the Dodgers. Sooooo maybe you don’t want him for that first week. In a standard league, I’d say you can let him go undrafted and then pick him up in week two.
SHANE SMITH, WHITE SOX
Another likely Opening Day starter on a bad team. Shane Smith is hated by the Stuff+ bros. But it’s a 96mph heater with a sick changeup.
He was pitching for the first time in the Majors last year after being selected in the Rule V draft from Milwaukee. He was learning on the job. And he learned well!
As James pointed out in the video, his last two months were great. A 27% K% with an 8.4% BB% plus a 13.9% SwStr%.
It’s a really, really good fastball and he has several options behind it. What am I missing, exactly?
He is a guy whose price has come up as more people have logged on and the drafts have gotten more competitive.
The 250 ADP doesn’t leave a ton of room for profit, but there’s plenty there, and I view Smith as a dude with a pretty nice floor. That division is the weakest in the league offensively and I don’t think it’s close.
SIMEON WOODS RICHARDSON, TWINS
Another AL Central pitcher, so you get the schedule boost here before anything else is said.
It was all about the splitty with SWR last year. This is another thing James talks about in the video. The marks on this splitter after he really committed to it:
→ 103.6 JA Stuff (elite)
→ 18.5% SwStr%
→ 45% Strike% (very good for a split)
→ 39% Ball% (very good for a split)
→ .223 xwOBA
The dude posted a 22% K-BB%, a 14.1% SwStr%, and a 36.3% Ball% in the final two months. He was a top-25 arm in the league late. And we’ve already seen him in spring using that splitter confidently again.
Wheels freakin’ up, even if he does have two last names!
MIKE BURROWS, ASTROS
James is a prospect guy, so he remembers Burrows from those days when he was a highly touted prospect. But that was when the COVID year hit and then Burrows had Tommy John, so he was forgotten. But he returned with a splash last season and looked good.
Good enough for the Astros to target him, and I’m thinking this dude is their 2nd-3rd best SP for 2026.
The best thing to say about Burrows concerns his changeup. It posted the second-best Strike% in the league among changeups. Only Tarik Skubal was ahead of him in that (200+ pitches thrown).
The fastball isn’t great, and it will keep him well outside of SP1 territory. But the Astros are adding a sinker to his mix and we’ve already seen it this spring.
Any improvement to his ability to set up this devastating changeup will be great. It makes all the sense in the world to have him be a dude with fastball variations to keep hitters off balance and earn a few more called strikes and foul balls.
BRAXTON ASHCRAFT, PIRATES
Can you tell I’m excited for this Pirates team this year? And I’m one of the lower people out there on Konnor Griffin, who is the main reason people think the Pirates could be a playoff team this year.
We’ve seen Ashcraft’s name in this post already when I showed those SwStr% + GB% qualifiers in the Cavalli section.
It doesn’t hurt at all that James is a fan, and that Derek Carty’s new Batcast pitcher model loves the dude. Check out Derek and me talking about that here:
Or here:
The pitch mix:
Some of that sample came from short relief appearances, but he was mostly stretched out all year. We can believe in at least 96+ from the four-seamer, and the slider was always a nasty pitch for the guy. No prospect, bro, was surprised to see this slider doing work.
Add on the sinker and the curveball, and you have a really, really solid arm here.
We’re seeing some downtrending ADP on the recent guys. And I’m just going to go ahead and take some credit for that. I don’t care if I deserve it or not, I’m taking it. Credit is taken, not earned.
J.T. GINN, ATHLETICS
I had not realized this velo boost until I heard it in James’ video. But my, oh my!
We’ve already found that velo spikes don’t always stick into the regular season, but +3.5 is going to stick to some degree.
I liked Ginn for the heavy sinker he has going on and the ground ball heavy ways which will help him beat that home ballpark more than his teammates. Like James said in the video, maybe you avoid him in the home starts. And maybe the ERA/WHIP won’t look super pretty at the end of the year, but he’s going to throw out some gems this year. He’s a worthwhile SP to own in very deep leagues, and a guy to know for streaming purposes.
CHAD PATRICK, BREWERS
CARMEN MLODZINSKI, PIRATES
JOEY CANTILLO, GUARDIANS
JUSTIN WROBLESKI, DODGERS
None of these four made my breakout picks, so I guess that’s where James and I would differ. But I do think Chad Patrick is undervalued, and that’s the main point here. I just don’t think he has much strikeout upside since he’s so fastball-heavy. He’s a good pick in deep leagues where you’re looking for some solid innings, but he’s not someone I’d worry about taking a spin on in a 12-teamer.
As for Mlodzinski, I just don’t think he’s a starter. The Pirates have tried it, and it doesn’t work.
Carmen Mlodzinski 2025
1st Time Thru Order: 1.69 ERA, .265 wOBA
2nd Time Thru Order: 8.84 ERA, .439 wOBA
3rd Time Thru Order: 9.82 ERA, .332 wOBA
Uhhhhhhmmmmmmm… Maybe James was thinking more for deep leagues with those bulk innings. He’s great for that. Mlodzinski is a dude who can throw 2-3 lights out innings in the middle of the game and steal some wins.
Same story with Wrobleski, whom I didn’t even bother to write up. His numbers were great last year, but he’s not going to make more than a handful of [traditional] starts for the Dodgers, which takes away his fantasy value in most situations.
And Joey Cantillo (full write up here), I just don’t get it. He has a dirt-mcgirt changeup (26.2% SwStr%), but unlike Burrows, no fastball to speak of. His four-seamer went for a 6.5% SwStr% and a 48% Strike% last year. That’s not cutting it as a starter. He can be a high K/9 dude who doesn’t give up a ton of damage, but I think he’s going to be a very inefficient pitcher with a bad WHIP (Blake Snell super lite).
So that was awesome, shout out to James Anderson. Great analysis, great video, and fantastic surname.