Category Targets: Batting Average
Finding late round batting average targets
The expected batting average stat has made this particular post pretty easy. I could break down line drive rates and hard hit rate and sweet spot rates and BABIP and all that business, and that would be a good time. But it would be an inefficient use of time, because we have xBA which takes it all into account for us.
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We also have season long projections available to us for free. So we can use The Bat X model to help us in this regard as well. No doubt, The Bat X model uses xBA, or at least uses the same sort of inputs as xBA, so it’s like a double-check situation.
Last year, I compared 2023 xBA vs. 2024 Actual AVG:
And then compared 2023 Actual vs. 2024 Actual AVG:
From those plots, you can see that xBA does a better job at predicting future actual AVG than actual AVG. So we like to use xBA.
Plate Appearances vs. Batting Average
This is a consideration that is easy to overlook. A plate appearance does not increment your team’s AB count at all. So, while batting average is a ratio and not a volume stat, volume does matter to a small extent. Take this example:
2025 Luis Arraez: .292 AVG in 620 ABs
2024 Brendan Donovan: .287 AVG in 460 ABs
You might look at the .292 and the .287 and say they did about the same thing for your fantasy team in batting average. But in reality, Arraez’ .292 mark was way more valuable than Donovan’s .287 because he gave you that rtaio in 160 more ABs of volume. His .292 had a way higher weight on your team’s AVG than Donovan’s .287 mark.
That example is most about Donovan getting hurt last year. BUT WALK RATES DO MATTER here.
2025 Kyle Tucker: .266 AVG in 597 PA
2025 Jackson Chourio: .270 AVG in 589 PA
Very similar numbers I’m showing you there, right? But when you look at AB counts, you find that Chourio had 49 more ABs than Tucker because of the different in walks. Tucker walked 87 times, Chourio just 30. So the batting average you get from Chourio is more valuable than getting the same batting average from Tucker.
This kind of stuff only makes marginal differences. It’s probably not really worth changing any draft decisions over, but it’s good to know.
Avoiding the Negative
The best offense is a good defense, as they say. You can get a good fantasy team batting average by drafting a bunch of dudes who will hit .280. That’s true. Or, you can just avoid all the dudes that will hit below .240. You don’t need to use a pick on a Jacob Wilson or a Steven Kwan, or a Luis Arraez if the rest of your squad is full of .260-.270 hitters.
This is most important at the top of the draft. It’s not to say it’s the optimal strategy to avoid these guys, because they all do great things in other cataegories. But it’s an option. If you really don’t want ot use a roster spot on a dude who can’t possibly hit you 15 bombs, just don’t draft these batting average landmines early on:
Those are hitters in the top 150 of ADP with a projected average below .240. The Bat X is pretty harsh on the young Jakob Marsee, but that’s why I like projections. We get to crap on the rookies. There’s not enough good old fashion newbie hazing these days.
Embracing the Positive
But maybe you don’t want to pass up on that 50 bomb potential that Cal Raleigh gives you at catcher. I don’t blame you. But if you do take him on, you’re going to want to be looking for some batting average help. So let’s show you those guys.
TOP 50 ADP TARGETS:
Vlad Guerrero (ADP 18)
Yordan Alvarez (34)
Bobby Witt Jr. (3)
Aaron Judge (2)
Shohei Ohtani (1)
Trea Turner (26)
You shouldn’t draft those dudes just because of the batting average, but they do give you that average in addition to the rest of the studly production. You’ll probably squeeze a .290+ batting average or two out of other dudes in the first few rounds that I didn’t mention above. But those are the best early investments to buoy your team in average
ADP 50-100 TARGETS:
We’ve been talking a lot about shortstops on the podcast this week, and I have to say that Tim really has talked me onto the Bo Bichette pick this year. An ADP near 100 and a lock for a high batting average plus some pop. AND he’ll grab 3B eligibility early on. He’s one of my targets now.
I also really like the Nico Hoerner and Maikel Garcia type target around this part of the draft. Bulk up your steals and batting average projection with one selection. But hopefully you have a few 25+ homer bats before clicking that button.
That’s my general rule here. I don’t want to put somebody on my team who only helps in batting average. I’m more willing to play the one-man game with stolen bases. That’s for a couple of reasons.
One being that steals outliers make a much bigger difference on your team than batting average outliers. One dude can steal 70 bags, but nobody is going to hit .400. The max is much further from the mean in steals compared to average.
Two being that stolen bases are more projectable than batting average. Steven Kwan hit .268 one year. There are no guarantees with these guys.
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