Category Targets: Steals
Finding value in stolen bases
Stolen bases are the most unique category in the fantasy game. They’re not correlated with any other category. There’s a slight correlation with runs, but it’s pretty weak.
So you’ll find yourself often drafting a guy for the sole purpose of getting some steals. Obviously, there are dudes who steal a bunch of bases while also contributing in other categories. This correlation table isn’t telling you that steals always come on an island. What it’s telling you is that you don’t necessarily get anything else because you’re getting steals. The word necessarily is often misunderstand taken for granted. I’m a big words guy. I like words. I like finding out what they actually mean and why they’re in the language.
Necessarily isn’t a tricky word, everybody knows what it means. But what it truly means is because of ___, then ___ happens.
If Aaron Judge hits 50 more homers this year, you’re getting 100+ RBI (the fewest RBIs on a 50+ homer season in the last 20 years was 2025 Shohei Ohtani with 102). And you’re probably getting 120+. You can’t hit a home run without also getting an RBI.
If Luis Arraez hits .320 this year, you’re getting at least a .340 OBP. It’s necessary; it has to happen mathematically.
But steals do not necessitate anything else.
2007 Jose Reyes stole 78 bags, hit 12 homers, drove in 57
2004 Scott Posednik stole 70 bags, hit 12 homers, drove in 39
2023 Ronald Acuna stole 73 bags, hit 41 homers, drove in 106
You’re mostly getting a ton of runs from those guys since every steal at least puts you on second base, and the speedy guys tend to hit at the top of the lineup. But it’s no guarantee!
2008 Willy Taveras stole 68 bags and scored just 64 runs.
It’s fun to look at these seasons from the past, but we should actually get to the point of the post.
General SB Strategy
There are a lot of ways to skin a cat. Speaking of language, it’s funny how many of our idioms and expressions involve harming animals.
I personally like to get steals from the studs. You can get 30+ steals from a ton of the dudes that go early on in the draft, and they’ll help you in at least a few other categories as well. My preferred method of drafting is to pile up 100+ steals with my first 5-6 hitter selections so I don’t have to rely on “steals only” guy late in the draft. But that doesn’t always work, and I do think it’s more than viable (especially this year) to worry less about steals early while banking on making up the difference with a single pick in the mid or late rounds.
Steals Saviours - The Example
Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays
I’m not adding anything useful to the discourse yet! We begin with a name that 95% of fantasy baseballers know.
This is a dude with a 100-steal season under his belt. Dude stole 104 bags in 110 games in 2024. We’ve seen big numbers in the minors before. Most notably in my mind is Victor Scott, who swiped 95 bags in 2023.
A couple years ago, we were talking about Scott in the same way we’re talking about Simpson now. And that hasn’t worked out very well. Scott’s best MLB effort so far has been 34 steals (last year). That’s a nice total, but when you take his five homers and .216 batting average with it, it’s a bad player on balance.
Simpson truly is different. Read my full write-up on him here. The difference is this dude’s elite contact ability (92.5% Zone-Contact%, 9.8% K% last year in the Majors) and batted ball profile (9% FB%). We always like a low K%, but we don’t always like a low FB%. In fact, we usually hate that. But for a dude with legitimately zero power (he’s never hit a non-inside-the-park home run in his pro career), it’s good. We wouldn’t want a guy with these little tiny EVs hitting the ball in the air. It’s going to be an out almost every time. We want ground balls that he can beat out for a single, and we want line drives that go for a hit 60%+ of the time.
He probably won’t walk much. He’s gotta be the last dude in the whole league you’d choose to walk. You know he’s not going to take you yard, and a walk is as good as giving up a double. So a pitcher’s sole intent when facing Simpson should just be to let him get a ball in play and hope an out is made on it. And that’s what we saw last year as pitchers went after him with a super low 31.4% Ball%.
So yeah, not many free passes are coming. But a ton of balls in play certainly are, and that gives him a great chance to steal a ton of bags, a TON of bags.
The price is shown there. He’s probably a 13th-ish round pick. So he’s by no means free. And I wish he were a better defender. So far, his defense hasn’t been something to keep him in the lineup like we find with other speedy centerfielders. That’s really my only hesitation with him. Maybe the defense will be so poor that the Rays opt to make him a part-time guy. It helps that Jake Mangum is gone. I think Simpson will play plenty. And there’s 80-steal upside if he does.
It’s a pretty intriguing idea to start your draft with a ton of power and batting average, not worrying much about steals. Start your draft with two of these sticks:
→ Aaron Judge
→ Junior Caminero
→ Vlad Guerrero Jr.
→ Nick Kurtz
→ Kyle Schwarber
→ Pete Alonso
→ Ketel Marte
→ Yordan Alvarez
You’ll be sitting pretty in HR+RBI, but certainly lacking in steals. You can make it all back and then some with a Simpson pick.
The risk is obvious. What if Simpson gets hurt? It’s the classic life advice. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Hey, there ya go - an idiom that doesn’t involve torturing an animal. But hey, there’s a flipside too! If you put all your eggs in the right basket, then it works out - and you only need the one basket.
If you’re going to do this, you’ll probably want to reach pretty heavy to make sure you get Simpson. Keep an eye on the draft; maybe someone else is doing the same thing. You can’t really afford to miss the dude in this strategy.
That Simpson part of the post serves as the set-up for the rest of the names. The point is clear now (it was probably clear just from reading the title of the article, but I’m having fun). So let’s talk about some other names.
Steals Saviours - More Mid Rounds
One good way to find these types of targets is to use 600 PA Projections. Paid subs can easily access those, from any preferred projection system, on the web app:
That takes every player that is projecting for some MLB playing time and changes their projection to a 600 PA sample.
Jose Caballero, Yankees (ADP 197)
Cabellero 600 PA SB Projection: 55
This would be the emergency plan if you take this strategy and don’t get Simpson. You should absolutely not be taking both of these guys. Caballero led the league in steals last year and now sets up to be the starting shortstop in pinstripes at the beginning of the year while Anthony Volpe gets healthy.
The more I think about it and the more I look at it, the more I come to like Caballero. Unlike Simpson, he can do more than steal bags. The 600 PA projection on him is for 13 bombs in addition to his 55 steals. That’s 13 more than we expect from Simpson. Caballero also has quadruple eligibility (OF/2B/3B/SS). That’s great for fantasy leagues, but it’s also great for his chances of playing 120+ games, which is probably what we’ll need to get these 50 steals. The Yanks are working with Ryan McMahon at third. They have Trent Grisham in the outfield and Giancarlo Stanton, the man who can’t open a bag of chips, at DH. So there will be plenty of opportunities for Caballero to play, even if they do go back to Volpe as the full time shortstop.
I’m pretty down with the Caballero pick. And he makes the Simpson strategy even more appealing, because you have a fallback option if someone cocks you on the Simpson pick.
Luis Robert Jr., Mets (ADP 110)
600 PA SB Projection: 34
Maybe this is better considered to be “early rounds”, but we’re close enough. Robert Jr. has been a batting average killer (.226 in 2024, .223 last year) recently, and he’s hit 28 homers total in the last two years (210 GP). So he’s been bad. But look at some marks from last year:
→ 26.2% K%, 9.3% BB%, 41% SB Attempt%, 80% SB Success%
It was the highest walk rate of his career (by 3+ points, a huge movement upward), and his best K% since 2022. I’m not sure if the new team situation will make a positive or negative difference, but it’s a difference! If nothing else, Robert seems like a 25+ steals lock. And, unlike most of these other dudes, there’s power in there somewhere (he hit 38 bombs in 2023).
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