Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!
The baseball is different again. After a manufacturing glitch left half the 2026 balls with yellow oil stains and a sharp June drop in drag that sent home runs flying at near-2019 rates, data now points to another shift around the All-Star break—lower exit velocities, a 15% home-run drop, and growing suspicion that MLB introduced a new, less lively ball. The league calls it “variation in performance.” Players, analysts, and the numbers aren’t so sure. If if you go to X, you can go find lots of articles about it. There are a couple cool data analysts that have written about the data behind it, we’re going to be laying off some home run props unless we find a ton of value until we see how this plays out.
We laid low yesterday. I didn’t like a ton of the value, and we missed on the one prop we did bet on, but we’re gonna go after the Yankees today with Mr. Chris Sale.
They are significantly different versus right-handed pitching versus left-handed pitching, and it’s the tale of two tapes. They have Ben Rice, Jazz, Caballero, and McMahon all striking out over 30% versus lefties. A lot of guys in the 20s that are even right-handed bats, and so a 7.5 line for Sale today when he has a 30% whiff rate this season, a 30.4% K rate, a 23% putaway rate, and an outstanding 15.5 swing-and-strike rate. 7.5 is too low for our projection on him today.
Chris Sale ATL O 7.5k -140 1u and O 8.5k 1u +132 FD
Get these lines in early. They’re going to go up today, I think, pretty significantly.
