Deep Sleepers - NL Central
Last minute deep sleeper series!
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Cardinals
Matthew Liberatore (ADP 390)
Some stuff models have Liberatore as one of the spring’s best pitchers. By itself, that doesn’t mean much to me. And not all of the models even agree.
But he does look like a new-and-improved arm this spring. He has a 34.5% K% with a 1.8% BB% and a 20.0% SwStr% on 220 pitches. It’s hard to luck into those numbers even in a small sample.
There’s some sort of changeup/splitter tweak to his pitch mix that people have talked about. His fastball velo is the same, but it’s at 94 - which works fine for a lefty as long as there are strong secondaries. The curveball was pretty good last year in the Majors, and now he might have a slider and split/change to go with it in addition to his mediocre fastball. It just might work.
Don’t forget that Liberatore posted a 30% K% in the minors in 2023. The Cardinals elected to use him as a reliever in 2024, and then moved him to the rotation in 2025. And he started very well in 2025 with a 3.08 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 18.1% K-BB% in his first 11 starts before it all fell apart. Maybe he learned some serious lessons about longevity and what it takes. And maybe he’ll take a huge step forward and end up being a steal after pick 300 this year.
Quinn Mathews (ADP 570)
“One T” Mathews, baby! I love it when people spell their own name wrong. The Cardinals could use some pitching. They have no aces, but plenty of guys who could end up pitching like SP3-SP5s.
Mathews has STUFF. There’s not much question about that. A mid-90s fastball from the left side with a pretty wicked slider.
The command issue might be something he can’t overcome. After posting an 8.8% BB% in 2024, something broke in 2025, and that ballooned up to 17.1%. This spring, it’s a 12.1% BB%. That’s obviously a lot better than 17%, but it’s not going to work. He’ll have to get this to a 9% BB% to have any chance in the Majors, but he’s done it before - so he’s someone to keep an eye on if he makes the Cardinals rotation.
Pirates
Hunter Barco (ADP 590)
Barco hasn’t been named a starter, and the Pirates did sign Jose Urquidy seemingly to bridge some innings until Jared Jones returns. But if it’s Urquidy, that would mean the Pirates enter the season with a rotation full of righties. In recent years, they’ve made a case to sign left-handed pitching to best fit their home park.
So I think it’s going to be Barco. He’s clearly better than Urquidy, and the Pirates want to make some waves this year.
Barco is not the next Paul Skenes, and he does not have even Bubba Chandler’s upside. But he’s a lefty with a high-movement sinker and 100+ innings pitched thrown last year. We might get 140 pretty solid innings out of this guy.
From the minors last year:
This spring, he’s expanded the pitch mix:
So he’s piled on the four-seamer early on this spring. I’d expect the four-seam and sinker usage to come much closer together. The Pro Stuff model likes his slider (105 proStuff+), so we could be looking at a guy with fastball variations and a wipeout slider.
Again, he’s not an upside guy. He probably won’t be a 12-team option besides streaming in good matchups, but I could see him turning into a pretty solid run preventer in PNC Park.
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