DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 1st
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Huge Tuesday slate here on deadline day! The optimal thing for me to do today would be to wait to run this until after the deadline, but late afternoon and evenings are booked for me with my wife and three kids. That means some of the lineups below will end up being wrong, even more than normal!
We are doing the game-by-game previews first and then at the end we’ll do a full DFS preview with some lineup ideas and give the recommended bets for tonight!
You can check out the new Tableau dashboard here for updates on the prop bet tracking. But here’s the current summary:
The weather issues are restricted to just Colorado, which is always a pain. The legend Kevin Roth is calling it “Orange” - which means there’s a significant chance of a PPD. Other than that though, we’re in the clear. Let’s get to it!
Game by Game Previews 8/1/2023
PHI @ MIA
Projected Game Score:
MIA 3.6 - PHI 3.38
MIA 51.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 6.98
2023 Pitcher Stats
Sandy Alcantara: 21 GS, 1994 Pitches, 20.0 K%, 6.6 BB%, 14.1 SwStr%, 48.1 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%, 50.5 GB%, 7 Brl%
Ranger Suarez: 14 GS, 1300 Pitches, 21.6 K%, 8.3 BB%, 10.2 SwStr%, 44.0 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%, 51.7 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 99 Pitches 6.09 IP, 6.2 H, 2.7 ER, 6.0 K, 1.6 BB, 16.4 FPts
Ranger Suarez (PHI): 92 Pitches 5.6 IP, 5.8 H, 2.5 ER, 4.7 K, 1.7 BB, 13.28 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Sandy Alcantara - 6.5 strikeouts
Ranger Suarez - 4.5 strikeouts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.25 PA, 0.79 H, 1.66 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.54 FPts
2. Nick Castellanos: 4.13 PA, 0.99 H, 1.56 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.41 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.02 PA, 0.99 H, 1.65 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.79 FPts
4. Alec Bohm: 3.97 PA, 0.97 H, 1.38 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.92 FPts
5. Bryson Stott: 3.86 PA, 1.0 H, 1.45 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.56 FPts
6. J.T. Realmuto: 3.74 PA, 0.9 H, 1.52 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.81 FPts
7. Trea Turner: 3.63 PA, 0.91 H, 1.39 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.49 FPts
8. Brandon Marsh: 3.46 PA, 0.79 H, 1.24 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.73 FPts
9. Jake Cave: 3.09 PA, 0.65 H, 1.1 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 4.68 FPts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Luis Arraez: 4.42 PA, 1.24 H, 1.63 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.17 FPts
2. Jorge Soler: 4.33 PA, 0.92 H, 1.87 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.94 FPts
3. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.24 PA, 1.03 H, 1.63 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.02 FPts
4. Jazz Chisholm: 3.93 PA, 0.87 H, 1.48 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.24 SB, 7.61 FPts
5. Avisail Garcia: 3.96 PA, 0.95 H, 1.6 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.96 FPts
6. Jon Berti: 3.82 PA, 0.89 H, 1.27 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.28 SB, 7.32 FPts
7. Yuli Gurriel: 3.84 PA, 0.94 H, 1.3 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.69 FPts
8. Jean Segura: 3.69 PA, 0.93 H, 1.28 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.99 FPts
9. Jacob Stallings: 3.26 PA, 0.69 H, 1.02 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.62 FPts
Best Bets
None
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
TB @ NYY
Projected Game Score:
NYY 3.84 - TB 3.42
NYY 53.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 7.26
2023 Pitcher Stats
Carlos Rodon: 4 GS, 337 Pitches, 16.7 K%, 13.3 BB%, 13.4 SwStr%, 43.3 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%, 38.7 GB%, 10 Brl%
Zach Eflin: 20 GS, 1659 Pitches, 25.3 K%, 3.5 BB%, 11.7 SwStr%, 49.2 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%, 52.0 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Carlos Rodon (NYY): 95 Pitches 6.16 IP, 5.0 H, 2.4 ER, 6.8 K, 2.0 BB, 19.22 FPts
Zach Eflin (TB): 80 Pitches 4.95 IP, 4.9 H, 2.3 ER, 5.2 K, 1.1 BB, 14.06 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Carlos Rodon - 5.5 strikeouts
Zach Eflin - 5.5 strikeouts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.34 PA, 1.07 H, 1.66 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.78 FPts
2. Wander Franco: 4.32 PA, 1.05 H, 1.6 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.0 FPts
3. Harold Ramirez: 4.19 PA, 1.02 H, 1.47 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.45 FPts
4. Randy Arozarena: 4.16 PA, 0.86 H, 1.5 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.85 FPts
5. Isaac Paredes: 3.95 PA, 0.77 H, 1.28 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.08 FPts
6. Manuel Margot: 3.91 PA, 0.9 H, 1.34 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.45 FPts
7. Jose Siri: 3.82 PA, 0.65 H, 1.15 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.13 SB, 5.55 FPts
8. Christian Bethancourt: 3.58 PA, 0.74 H, 1.2 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 4.97 FPts
9. Vidal Brujan: 3.46 PA, 0.56 H, 0.78 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.16 SB, 4.48 FPts
NYY Hitter Projections
1. Gleyber Torres: 4.28 PA, 1.02 H, 1.66 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.47 FPts
2. Aaron Judge: 4.17 PA, 1.12 H, 2.5 TB, 0.39 HR, 0.07 SB, 10.76 FPts
3. Anthony Rizzo: 4.08 PA, 0.85 H, 1.54 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.84 FPts
4. Giancarlo Stanton: 3.95 PA, 0.81 H, 1.66 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.99 FPts
5. D.J. LeMahieu: 3.88 PA, 0.86 H, 1.27 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.9 FPts
6. Jake Bauers: 3.54 PA, 0.74 H, 1.35 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.19 FPts
7. Harrison Bader: 3.59 PA, 0.83 H, 1.28 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.14 SB, 5.95 FPts
8. Anthony Volpe: 3.56 PA, 0.7 H, 1.23 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.08 FPts
9. Kyle Higashioka: 3.19 PA, 0.65 H, 1.11 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.5 FPts
Best Bets
Zach Eflin TB - Outs Under 16.5 (+100.0) - 0.178 value
Zach Eflin TB - Walks Under 1.5 (-140.0) - 0.127 value
Carlos Rodon NYY - Outs Over 16.5 (-125.0) - 0.11 value
Jose Siri TB - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-140.0) - 0.109 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Aaron Judge (NYY) OF $6400: 10.76 Proj, 1.36 Score
Manuel Margot (TB) OF $2200: 6.45 Proj, 1.05 Score
Yandy Diaz (TB) 1B $4500: 7.78 Proj, 0.98 Score
Wander Franco (TB) SS $5500: 8.0 Proj, 0.98 Score
Randy Arozarena (TB) OF $5200: 7.85 Proj, 0.98 Score
DET @ PIT
Projected Game Score:
PIT 4.78 - DET 3.58
PIT 57.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.36
2023 Pitcher Stats
Johan Oviedo: 21 GS, 1931 Pitches, 20.6 K%, 9.1 BB%, 12.6 SwStr%, 44.8 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%, 46.7 GB%, 8 Brl%
Matt Manning: 8 GS, 645 Pitches, 17.6 K%, 7.6 BB%, 8.5 SwStr%, 46.7 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%, 35.0 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Johan Oviedo (PIT): 90 Pitches 5.54 IP, 5.0 H, 2.6 ER, 5.4 K, 2.1 BB, 14.53 FPts
Matt Manning (DET): 85 Pitches 5.21 IP, 5.0 H, 2.6 ER, 3.9 K, 2.1 BB, 10.59 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Johan Oviedo - 5.5 strikeouts
Matt Manning - Prop Not Found
DET Hitter Projections
1. Zach McKinstry: 4.18 PA, 0.86 H, 1.46 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.11 FPts
2. Riley Greene: 4.27 PA, 1.01 H, 1.57 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.41 FPts
3. Spencer Torkelson: 4.2 PA, 0.84 H, 1.43 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.56 FPts
4. Kerry Carpenter: 3.93 PA, 0.92 H, 1.61 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.9 FPts
5. Matt Vierling: 3.93 PA, 0.92 H, 1.38 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.59 FPts
6. Javier Baez: 3.81 PA, 0.87 H, 1.39 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.22 FPts
7. Akil Baddoo: 3.52 PA, 0.69 H, 1.02 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.16 SB, 5.94 FPts
8. Zack Short: 3.38 PA, 0.56 H, 0.97 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 4.98 FPts
9. Jake Rogers: 3.29 PA, 0.62 H, 1.13 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.27 FPts
PIT Hitter Projections
1. Jack Suwinski: 4.27 PA, 0.9 H, 1.86 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.07 SB, 9.15 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.25 PA, 1.09 H, 1.89 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.65 FPts
3. Andrew McCutchen: 4.2 PA, 0.89 H, 1.46 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.68 FPts
4. Henry Davis: 4.12 PA, 0.95 H, 1.67 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.28 FPts
5. Endy Rodriguez: 4.02 PA, 0.9 H, 1.46 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.79 FPts
6. Jared Triolo: 3.92 PA, 0.82 H, 1.21 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.17 FPts
7. Josh Palacios: 3.41 PA, 0.77 H, 1.12 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.7 FPts
8. Alika Williams: 3.68 PA, 0.87 H, 1.36 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.15 FPts
9. Liover Peguero: 3.44 PA, 0.82 H, 1.35 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.5 FPts
Best Bets
None
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Jack Suwinski (PIT) OF $3500: 9.15 Proj, 1.41 Score
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) OF $4300: 8.65 Proj, 1.19 Score
Endy Rodriguez (PIT) C $2100: 6.79 Proj, 1.18 Score
Henry Davis (PIT) OF $2900: 8.28 Proj, 1.17 Score
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) OF $3600: 7.68 Proj, 1.11 Score
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