DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 4th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
I’ve been getting into DFS this week, playing these $1 and $5 Hundo contests - so let’s do the DFS preview here free of charge.
DFS Preview
Potential weather issues
Astros at Yankees
Blue Jays at Red Sox
The two highest projected scoring games (Braves at Cubs, Nationals at Reds) are off the slate, and there is no Coors either. So we have no sort of “default” spots - which I always like a lot.
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
ATL (vs. Kyle Hendricks): 81.23 Projected Points
CIN (vs. Patrick Corbin): 75.13 Projected Points
STL (vs. Chris Flexen): 74.22 Projected Points
PHI (vs. Jordan Lyles): 74.08 Projected Points
HOU (vs. Luis Severino): 73.95 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
DET (vs. Zack Littell): 52.12 Projected Points
CHC (vs. Max Fried): 57.34 Projected Points
COL (vs. Adam Wainwright): 59.73 Projected Points
LAA (vs. Luis Castillo): 60.72 Projected Points
CWS (vs. Logan Allen): 61.16 Projected Points
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Reid Detmers: 19.42 Today, 17.62 Previous Max
Colin Rea: 14.34 Today, 14.18 Previous Max
Kyle Schwarber: 10.71 Today, 10.51 Previous Max
C.J. Abrams: 9.26 Today, 8.39 Previous Max
Keibert Ruiz: 8.08 Today, 8.08 Previous Max
Avisail Garcia: 7.26 Today, 7.23 Previous Max
Pitchers - Top Plays
Luis Castillo $10,200 vs. LAA
Reid Detmers $8,200 vs. SEA
Hunter Brown $8,400 vs. NYY
Aaron Nola $10,000 vs. KC
Jesus Luzardo $9,500 vs. TEX
Pitchers - Punts
Quinn Priester $6,200 vs. MIL
Colin Rea $6,700 vs. PIT
Bobby Miller $7,500 vs. SD
Castillo + Brown/Detmers feels like a pretty good cash duo. I don’t mind going down to Rea for a tournament situation either - the Pirates can certainly be had. Priester is projecting decently but maybe that’s just because my model is giving him too much credit given the unknown. His walk rate has been egregious and he only has an 18% K% - so I would absolutely take a pass on him, but there’s a decent chance he goes for 15 points too - which would be good for his salary.
Team Spots
Implied runs totals by the books
BOS 5.91
PHI 5.86
STL 5.57
MIL 5.09
BAL 4.99
SPs to target
Adam Wainwright (vs. COL): 3.7% K-BB%, .404 xwOBA
Chris Flexen (vs. STL): 3.7% K-BB%, .386 xwOBA
Luis Severino (vs. HOU): 9.7% K-BB%, .378 xwOBA
Alek Manoah (vs. BOS): 4.6% K-BB%, .373 xwOBA
Catchers
Willson Contreras $3,700 vs. Chris Flexen
Danny Jansen $3,000 vs. James Paxton
J.T. Realmuto $4,800 vs. Jordan Lyles
William Contreras $4,900 vs. Quinn Priester
First Base
Josh Bell $3,000 vs. Jordan Montgomery
Shohei Ohtani $6,500 vs. Luis Castillo
Ryan Mountcastle $3,800 vs. David Peterson
Bryce Harper $5,400 vs. Jordan Lyles
Paul Goldschmidt $5,700 vs. Chris Flexen
Second Base
Nolan Gorman $4,100 vs. Chris Flexen
Jose Altuve $5,500 vs. Luis Severino
Dylan Moore $2,400 vs. Reid Detmers
Jake Burger $3,900 vs. Jordan Montgomery
Andres Gimenez $4,000 vs. Mike Clevinger
Third Base
Jose Ramirez $5,600 vs. Mike Clevinger
Jake Burger $3,900 vs. Jordan Montgomery
Rafael Devers $5,100 vs. Alek Manoah
Eugenio Suarez $3,300 vs. Reid Detmers
Nolan Arenado $5,400 vs. Chris Flexen
Shortstop
Francisco Lindor $5,200 vs. Dean Kremer
Tommy Edman $3,300 vs. Chris Flexen
Jeremy Pena $4,500 vs. Luis Severino
Corey Seager $6,100 vs. Jesus Luzardo
Tim Anderson $3,900 vs. Logan Allen
Outfield
Kyle Schwarber $4,600 vs. Jordan Lyles
Aaron Judge $6,300 vs. Hunter Brown
Dylan Moore $2,400 vs. Reid Detmers
Teoscar Hernandez $3,200 vs. Reid Detmers
Kyle Tucker $5,700 vs. Luis Severino
Lars Nootbaar $4,400 vs. Chris Flexen
Yordan Alvarez $6,000 vs. Luis Severino
Jack Suwinski $3,600 vs. Colin Rea
Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,000 vs. Bobby Miller
Tyler O’Neill $3,500 vs. Chris Flexen
Shohei Ohtani $6,500 vs. Luis Castillo
Juan Soto $5,800 vs. Bobby Miller
Avisail Garcia $2,400 vs. Jordan Montgomery
Christian Yelich $5,300 vs. Quinn Priester
Trayce Thompson $2,300 vs. Logan Allen
Lineups
#1 Model Top Plays
SP Detmers
SP Castillo
C Endy Rodriguez
1B Rivas
2B Duffy
3B Devers
SS Lindor
OF Schwarber
OF Nootbaar
OF Tucker
#2 Cardinals Stack with Pirates value
SP Detmers
SP Brown
C Willson
1B Rivas
2B Gorman
3B Arenado
SS Witt Jr.
OF Suwinski
OF Reynolds
OF Nootbaar
#3 Astros
SP Detmers
SP Miller
C Garver
1B Rivas
2B Altuve
3B Bregman
SS Rocchio
OF Yordan
OF Tucker
OF McCormick
Okay, now we go to the game-by-game previews and we’ll hit the recommended bets at the bottom
Game by Game Previews
ATL @ CHC
Projected Game Score:
ATL 6.4 - CHC 3.6
ATL 64.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 10.0
2023 Pitcher Stats
Max Fried: 5 GS, 419 Pitches, 24.3 K%, 5.8 BB%, 14.3 SwStr%, 47.7 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%, 63.9 GB%, 4 Brl%
Kyle Hendricks: 12 GS, 1156 Pitches, 15.3 K%, 3.8 BB%, 8.1 SwStr%, 44.6 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%, 47.8 GB%, 7 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Max Fried (ATL): 83 Pitches 4.98 IP, 4.8 H, 2.2 ER, 5.0 K, 1.2 BB, 14.2 FPts
Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 92 Pitches 5.36 IP, 6.5 H, 3.2 ER, 4.1 K, 1.3 BB, 9.55 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Max Fried - 4.5 strikeouts
Kyle Hendricks - 3.5 strikeouts
ATL Hitter Projections
1. Ronald Acuna Jr.: 4.5 PA, 1.28 H, 2.29 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.35 SB, 12.54 FPts
2. Ozzie Albies: 4.4 PA, 1.11 H, 1.96 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.12 SB, 9.26 FPts
3. Austin Riley: 4.3 PA, 1.16 H, 2.17 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.58 FPts
4. Matt Olson: 4.21 PA, 1.04 H, 2.19 TB, 0.3 HR, 0.01 SB, 10.38 FPts
5. Sean Murphy: 4.08 PA, 0.99 H, 1.85 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.0 SB, 8.41 FPts
6. Marcell Ozuna: 3.96 PA, 0.93 H, 1.82 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.97 FPts
7. Eddie Rosario: 3.66 PA, 0.94 H, 1.68 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.58 FPts
8. Orlando Arcia: 3.75 PA, 0.96 H, 1.55 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.98 FPts
9. Michael Harris II: 3.48 PA, 1.03 H, 1.82 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.53 FPts
CHC Hitter Projections
1. Nick Madrigal: 4.31 PA, 1.15 H, 1.55 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.9 FPts
2. Dansby Swanson: 4.17 PA, 0.97 H, 1.65 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.46 FPts
3. Ian Happ: 4.07 PA, 0.83 H, 1.32 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.7 FPts
4. Cody Bellinger: 4.01 PA, 0.88 H, 1.39 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.75 FPts
5. Yan Gomes: 3.81 PA, 0.9 H, 1.49 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.9 FPts
6. Seiya Suzuki: 3.83 PA, 0.87 H, 1.4 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.51 FPts
7. Jeimer Candelario: 3.69 PA, 0.85 H, 1.45 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.03 FPts
8. Patrick Wisdom: 3.41 PA, 0.63 H, 1.37 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.95 FPts
9. Miguel Amaya: 3.27 PA, 0.69 H, 1.16 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.14 FPts
Best Bets
Kyle Hendricks CHC - Outs Under 17.5 (+105.0) - 0.164 value
Max Fried ATL - Walks Under 1.5 (-110.0) - 0.142 value
Matt Olson ATL - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-150.0) - 0.116 value
Miguel Amaya CHC - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-155.0) - 0.108 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
TB @ DET
Projected Game Score:
TB 4.12 - DET 2.94
TB 58.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 7.06
2023 Pitcher Stats
Zack Littell: 4 GS, 487 Pitches, 22.9 K%, 3.1 BB%, 11.9 SwStr%, 50.5 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%, 47.4 GB%, 10 Brl%
Reese Olson: 8 GS, 830 Pitches, 22.9 K%, 4.9 BB%, 11.9 SwStr%, 46.9 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%, 41.2 GB%, 11 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Zack Littell (TB): 83 Pitches 5.1 IP, 4.4 H, 2.0 ER, 5.7 K, 1.4 BB, 16.04 FPts
Reese Olson (DET): 89 Pitches 5.46 IP, 5.2 H, 2.5 ER, 5.6 K, 1.2 BB, 15.12 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Zack Littell - 3.5 strikeouts
Reese Olson - 4.5 strikeouts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.36 PA, 1.08 H, 1.65 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.66 FPts
2. Wander Franco: 4.32 PA, 1.1 H, 1.71 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.29 FPts
3. Brandon Lowe: 4.16 PA, 0.86 H, 1.59 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.46 FPts
4. Randy Arozarena: 4.16 PA, 0.96 H, 1.66 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.16 SB, 8.3 FPts
5. Luke Raley: 3.84 PA, 0.84 H, 1.55 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.04 FPts
6. Isaac Paredes: 3.85 PA, 0.78 H, 1.33 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.06 FPts
7. Josh Lowe: 3.73 PA, 0.83 H, 1.39 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.83 FPts
8. Jose Siri: 3.7 PA, 0.73 H, 1.3 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.11 FPts
9. Christian Bethancourt: 3.36 PA, 0.76 H, 1.25 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.14 FPts
DET Hitter Projections
1. Zach McKinstry: 4.23 PA, 0.81 H, 1.34 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.16 FPts
2. Riley Greene: 4.32 PA, 0.99 H, 1.54 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.96 FPts
3. Spencer Torkelson: 4.26 PA, 0.82 H, 1.39 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.18 FPts
4. Kerry Carpenter: 3.97 PA, 0.88 H, 1.52 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.3 FPts
5. Matt Vierling: 3.98 PA, 0.91 H, 1.36 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.19 FPts
6. Javier Baez: 3.86 PA, 0.84 H, 1.34 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.72 FPts
7. Miguel Cabrera: 3.75 PA, 0.78 H, 1.1 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.73 FPts
8. Akil Baddoo: 3.42 PA, 0.64 H, 0.92 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.14 SB, 5.14 FPts
9. Jake Rogers: 3.35 PA, 0.59 H, 1.08 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 4.74 FPts
Best Bets
Zack Littell TB - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-125.0) - 0.261 value
Reese Olson DET - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (+100.0) - 0.164 value
Zach McKinstry DET - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (+115.0) - 0.139 value
Reese Olson DET - Walks Under 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.133 value
Spencer Torkelson DET - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.122 value
Zach McKinstry DET - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-145.0) - 0.116 value
Akil Baddoo DET - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (-140.0) - 0.116 value
Javier Baez DET - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.105 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
WSH @ CIN
Projected Game Score:
CIN 5.6 - WSH 4.9
CIN 53.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 10.5
Projected Total: 10.5
2023 Pitcher Stats
Graham Ashcraft: 20 GS, 1756 Pitches, 16.4 K%, 9.1 BB%, 10.4 SwStr%, 44.4 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%, 47.8 GB%, 6 Brl%
Patrick Corbin: 22 GS, 2040 Pitches, 15.5 K%, 6.4 BB%, 9.3 SwStr%, 41.5 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%, 46.0 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 93 Pitches 5.77 IP, 6.2 H, 2.9 ER, 4.0 K, 1.8 BB, 11.0 FPts
Patrick Corbin (WSH): 93 Pitches 5.37 IP, 6.5 H, 3.2 ER, 4.4 K, 1.7 BB, 9.98 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Graham Ashcraft - 4.5 strikeouts
Patrick Corbin - 4.5 strikeouts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. C.J. Abrams: 4.68 PA, 1.19 H, 1.88 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.23 SB, 9.26 FPts
2. Lane Thomas: 4.59 PA, 1.1 H, 1.85 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.77 FPts
3. Joey Meneses: 4.47 PA, 1.16 H, 1.81 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.07 FPts
4. Dominic Smith: 4.41 PA, 1.02 H, 1.48 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.11 FPts
5. Keibert Ruiz: 4.29 PA, 1.09 H, 1.77 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.08 FPts
6. Jake Alu: 4.18 PA, 1.0 H, 1.55 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.54 FPts
7. Alex Call: 3.99 PA, 0.81 H, 1.26 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.95 FPts
8. Blake Rutherford: 3.92 PA, 0.94 H, 1.55 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.12 FPts
9. Jeter Downs: 3.67 PA, 0.7 H, 1.17 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.66 FPts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. Elly De La Cruz: 4.46 PA, 1.21 H, 2.02 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.23 SB, 10.05 FPts
2. Nick Senzel: 4.22 PA, 1.02 H, 1.54 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.68 FPts
3. Matt McLain: 4.25 PA, 1.19 H, 2.15 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.13 SB, 10.45 FPts
4. Spencer Steer: 4.17 PA, 1.01 H, 1.7 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.3 FPts
5. Kevin Newman: 3.98 PA, 1.14 H, 1.73 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.16 FPts
6. Joey Votto: 3.89 PA, 0.86 H, 1.63 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.74 FPts
7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 3.84 PA, 1.04 H, 1.96 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.44 FPts
8. Tyler Stephenson: 3.62 PA, 0.97 H, 1.61 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.41 FPts
9. Stuart Fairchild: 3.17 PA, 0.78 H, 1.42 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.9 FPts
Best Bets
None
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
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