MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 30th

An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.

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Jon A
Aug 30, 2023
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The NFL season is almost here! While what I can offer for football is not nearly as good as what I offer for baseball, I do put some stuff out! Sign up as a paid member today and get everything that I will be offering for football season, including but not limited to

  • Weekly projections (possibly not ready until week 2 or 3 as I want to improve them this year, example here)

  • The NFL tableau dashboard (view last year’s version for free here)

  • Possible weekly slate write-ups and other data reports


Slate Preview 8/30/2023

Most Team Fantasy Point Projections

ATL (vs. Kyle Freeland): 84.61 Projected Points
HOU (vs. Kutter Crawford): 76.33 Projected Points
SEA (vs. Zach Neal): 73.61 Projected Points
NYY (vs. Joey Wentz): 73.17 Projected Points
LAD (vs. Brandon Pfaadt): 71.33 Projected Points

Least Team Fantasy Point Projections

MIA (vs. Zach Eflin): 53.43 Projected Points
DET (vs. Gerrit Cole): 55.28 Projected Points
TB (vs. Jesus Luzardo): 55.48 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Bryce Miller): 55.66 Projected Points
CIN (vs. Logan Webb): 56.23 Projected Points

Team Projections vs. Season Averages

ATL: 84.61 Today, 70.89 Season Average
HOU: 76.33 Today, 64.93 Season Average
COL: 70.13 Today, 61.03 Season Average
SEA: 73.61 Today, 64.52 Season Average
NYY: 73.17 Today, 64.51 Season Average

Today Max Projection Players

Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Tanner Bibee: 19.24 Today, 18.15 Previous Max
Ozzie Albies: 10.45 Today, 10.4 Previous Max
Ryan McMahon: 9.55 Today, 9.38 Previous Max
Travis d'Arnaud: 8.43 Today, 8.09 Previous Max
Orlando Arcia: 8.0 Today, 7.99 Previous Max

Game by Game Previews


CWS @ BAL

Projected Game Score:

BAL 4.2 - CWS 3.66
BAL 53.4% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.86

2023 Pitcher Stats

Dylan Cease: 27 GS, 2637 Pitches, 26.6 K%, 10.4 BB%, 14.2 SwStr%, 46.9 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%, 37.2 GB%, 6 Brl%
Kyle Gibson: 27 GS, 2500 Pitches, 20.1 K%, 6.9 BB%, 12.0 SwStr%, 43.1 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%, 49.8 GB%, 7 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Dylan Cease (CWS): 99.0 Pitches 6.31 IP, 5.5 H, 2.8 ER, 6.9 K, 2.2 BB, 18.18 FPts
Kyle Gibson (BAL): 97.0 Pitches 6.05 IP, 6.3 H, 2.7 ER, 5.0 K, 1.3 BB, 14.52 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Dylan Cease - 6.5 strikeouts
Kyle Gibson - 4.5 strikeouts

CWS Hitter Projections

1. Tim Anderson: 4.53 PA, 1.16 H, 1.54 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.4 FPts
2. Andrew Benintendi: 4.48 PA, 1.17 H, 1.59 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.58 FPts
3. Luis Robert: 4.32 PA, 1.08 H, 1.89 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.22 FPts
4. Eloy Jimenez: 4.27 PA, 1.08 H, 1.78 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.35 FPts
5. Andrew Vaughn: 4.19 PA, 1.01 H, 1.6 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.61 FPts
6. Yasmani Grandal: 4.0 PA, 0.83 H, 1.26 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.63 FPts
7. Elvis Andrus: 3.88 PA, 0.89 H, 1.28 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.13 SB, 6.16 FPts
8. Oscar Colas: 3.73 PA, 0.84 H, 1.31 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.58 FPts
9. Lenyn Sosa: 3.53 PA, 0.81 H, 1.3 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.21 FPts

BAL Hitter Projections

1. Gunnar Henderson: 4.63 PA, 0.94 H, 1.65 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.37 FPts
2. Anthony Santander: 4.6 PA, 0.99 H, 1.89 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.47 FPts
3. Ryan Mountcastle: 4.47 PA, 0.98 H, 1.75 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.7 FPts
4. Ryan O'Hearn: 4.16 PA, 0.95 H, 1.49 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.6 FPts
5. Cedric Mullins II: 4.27 PA, 0.9 H, 1.43 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.24 SB, 8.24 FPts
6. Adam Frazier: 3.91 PA, 0.95 H, 1.36 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.6 FPts
7. Jordan Westburg: 4.0 PA, 0.87 H, 1.36 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.43 FPts
8. James McCann: 3.64 PA, 0.74 H, 1.14 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.33 FPts
9. Jorge Mateo: 3.43 PA, 0.64 H, 1.03 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.27 SB, 6.07 FPts

Best Bets

Dylan Cease CWS - Outs Over 16.5 (-120.0) - 0.158 value
Dylan Cease CWS - Strikeouts Over 6.5 (+130.0) - 0.103 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Anthony Santander (BAL) OF $4400: 8.47 Proj, 1.14 Score
Tim Anderson (CWS) SS $3100: 7.4 Proj, 1.11 Score
Cedric Mullins II (BAL) OF $5000: 8.24 Proj, 1.08 Score
Andrew Benintendi (CWS) OF $3300: 7.58 Proj, 1.08 Score
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) 3B/SS $5300: 8.37 Proj, 1.07 Score


LAA @ PHI

Projected Game Score:

LAA 4.62 - PHI 4.53
LAA 50.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 9.15

2023 Pitcher Stats

Reid Detmers: 23 GS, 2113 Pitches, 26.5 K%, 9.2 BB%, 13.7 SwStr%, 48.7 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%, 36.2 GB%, 6 Brl%
Cristopher Sanchez: 13 GS, 1055 Pitches, 22.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, 10.8 SwStr%, 48.4 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%, 58.0 GB%, 9 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Reid Detmers (LAA): 84.0 Pitches 5.24 IP, 5.0 H, 2.5 ER, 5.4 K, 1.9 BB, 14.0 FPts
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 88.0 Pitches 5.39 IP, 5.5 H, 2.7 ER, 5.0 K, 1.7 BB, 13.25 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Reid Detmers - 5.5 strikeouts
Cristopher Sanchez - 4.5 strikeouts

LAA Hitter Projections

1. Nolan Schanuel: 4.63 PA, 0.94 H, 1.41 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.57 FPts
2. Luis Rengifo: 4.35 PA, 1.09 H, 1.86 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.41 FPts
3. Shohei Ohtani: 4.36 PA, 1.05 H, 2.07 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.15 SB, 10.3 FPts
4. Brandon Drury: 4.29 PA, 1.1 H, 1.99 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.36 FPts
5. Randal Grichuk: 4.18 PA, 1.03 H, 1.73 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.41 FPts
6. Logan O'Hoppe: 4.11 PA, 0.87 H, 1.46 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.54 FPts
7. Hunter Renfroe: 3.97 PA, 0.89 H, 1.55 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.76 FPts
8. Eduardo Escobar: 3.63 PA, 0.81 H, 1.37 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.0 FPts
9. Andrew Velazquez: 3.14 PA, 0.61 H, 1.02 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.19 SB, 5.6 FPts

PHI Hitter Projections

1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.66 PA, 0.78 H, 1.64 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.84 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.52 PA, 1.09 H, 1.83 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.21 SB, 9.12 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.4 PA, 0.94 H, 1.61 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.72 FPts
4. Nick Castellanos: 4.33 PA, 1.01 H, 1.68 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.57 FPts
5. Bryson Stott: 4.23 PA, 1.01 H, 1.5 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.14 SB, 7.55 FPts
6. Alec Bohm: 4.12 PA, 1.01 H, 1.6 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.07 FPts
7. Brandon Marsh: 3.92 PA, 0.77 H, 1.2 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.16 FPts
8. Johan Rojas: 3.76 PA, 0.87 H, 1.46 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.13 FPts
9. Garrett Stubbs: 3.43 PA, 0.63 H, 0.87 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.04 SB, 4.84 FPts

Best Bets

Johan Rojas PHI - Runs Scored Under 0.5 (0.0) - 0.6 value
Cristopher Sanchez PHI - Outs Under 17.5 (+105.0) - 0.155 value
Shohei Ohtani LAA - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-120.0) - 0.111 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 1B/OF $6500: 10.3 Proj, 1.25 Score
Brandon Drury (LAA) 2B $4200: 8.36 Proj, 1.16 Score
Trea Turner (PHI) SS $5500: 9.12 Proj, 1.16 Score
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) OF $5600: 8.84 Proj, 1.16 Score
Luis Rengifo (LAA) 2B/SS $3800: 8.41 Proj, 1.15 Score


CLE @ MIN

Projected Game Score:

CLE 3.96 - MIN 3.76
CLE 51.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 7.5
Projected Total: 7.72

2023 Pitcher Stats

Tanner Bibee: 21 GS, 1975 Pitches, 23.6 K%, 7.5 BB%, 12.3 SwStr%, 46.4 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%, 36.5 GB%, 6 Brl%
Sonny Gray: 25 GS, 2318 Pitches, 24.3 K%, 8.1 BB%, 12.7 SwStr%, 46.1 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%, 48.1 GB%, 7 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Tanner Bibee (CLE): 94.0 Pitches 6.19 IP, 4.9 H, 2.6 ER, 7.2 K, 2.4 BB, 19.24 FPts
Sonny Gray (MIN): 85.0 Pitches 5.27 IP, 4.9 H, 2.2 ER, 5.0 K, 1.7 BB, 14.14 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Tanner Bibee - 5.5 strikeouts
Sonny Gray - 5.5 strikeouts

CLE Hitter Projections

1. Steven Kwan: 4.63 PA, 1.2 H, 1.58 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.22 FPts
2. Jose Ramirez: 4.51 PA, 1.14 H, 1.9 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.21 SB, 9.63 FPts
3. Kole Calhoun: 4.42 PA, 0.89 H, 1.46 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.61 FPts
4. Ramon Laureano: 4.18 PA, 0.85 H, 1.48 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.15 FPts
5. Andres Gimenez: 4.19 PA, 1.01 H, 1.58 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.77 FPts
6. Will Brennan: 4.0 PA, 1.09 H, 1.51 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.67 FPts
7. Gabriel Arias: 3.83 PA, 0.69 H, 1.12 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.45 FPts
8. Eric Haase: 3.7 PA, 0.72 H, 1.18 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.13 FPts
9. Myles Straw: 3.61 PA, 0.79 H, 1.04 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.16 SB, 5.81 FPts

MIN Hitter Projections

1. Edouard Julien: 4.21 PA, 0.81 H, 1.41 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.45 FPts
2. Jorge Polanco: 4.35 PA, 0.95 H, 1.72 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.18 FPts
3. Max Kepler: 4.12 PA, 0.91 H, 1.62 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.52 FPts
4. Carlos Correa: 4.11 PA, 0.88 H, 1.48 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.7 FPts
5. Matt Wallner: 3.9 PA, 0.68 H, 1.34 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.2 FPts
6. Royce Lewis: 3.87 PA, 0.86 H, 1.4 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.5 FPts
7. Ryan Jeffers: 3.82 PA, 0.7 H, 1.25 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.62 FPts
8. Joey Gallo: 3.46 PA, 0.45 H, 0.99 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.2 FPts
9. Michael A. Taylor: 3.23 PA, 0.63 H, 1.07 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.01 FPts

Best Bets

Sonny Gray MIN - Outs Under 17.5 (+125.0) - 0.233 value
Tanner Bibee CLE - Strikeouts Over 5.5 (-160.0) - 0.112 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Jose Ramirez (CLE) 3B $5600: 9.63 Proj, 1.26 Score
Steven Kwan (CLE) OF $3400: 8.22 Proj, 1.17 Score
Jorge Polanco (MIN) 2B $4300: 8.18 Proj, 1.09 Score
Edouard Julien (MIN) 2B $3400: 7.45 Proj, 1.08 Score
Ramon Laureano (CLE) OF $3000: 7.15 Proj, 1.06 Score


SD @ STL

Projected Game Score:

SD 4.46 - STL 4.32
SD 50.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.78

2023 Pitcher Stats

Miles Mikolas: 28 GS, 2528 Pitches, 16.2 K%, 4.6 BB%, 8.3 SwStr%, 46.1 Strike%, 33.1 Ball%, 38.4 GB%, 8 Brl%
Rich Hill: 25 GS, 2307 Pitches, 19.3 K%, 8.7 BB%, 8.3 SwStr%, 46.3 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%, 39.7 GB%, 10 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Miles Mikolas (STL): 94.0 Pitches 5.54 IP, 6.0 H, 2.8 ER, 4.1 K, 1.7 BB, 11.07 FPts
Rich Hill (SD): 65.0 Pitches 3.95 IP, 4.2 H, 2.0 ER, 3.0 K, 1.4 BB, 8.09 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Miles Mikolas - 4.5 strikeouts
Rich Hill - 3.5 strikeouts

SD Hitter Projections

1. Ha-Seong Kim: 4.32 PA, 1.02 H, 1.56 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.97 FPts
2. Juan Soto: 4.26 PA, 0.99 H, 1.74 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 9.01 FPts
3. Manny Machado: 4.16 PA, 1.04 H, 1.78 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.94 FPts
4. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 4.09 PA, 1.04 H, 1.94 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.2 SB, 9.35 FPts
5. Xander Bogaerts: 3.99 PA, 1.04 H, 1.61 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.31 FPts
6. Garrett Cooper: 3.85 PA, 0.95 H, 1.54 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.43 FPts
7. Matt Carpenter: 3.59 PA, 0.71 H, 1.3 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.02 FPts
8. Gary Sanchez: 3.61 PA, 0.76 H, 1.47 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.25 FPts
9. Trent Grisham: 3.39 PA, 0.69 H, 1.23 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.08 FPts

STL Hitter Projections

1. Tommy Edman: 4.48 PA, 1.04 H, 1.62 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.24 SB, 8.44 FPts
2. Paul Goldschmidt: 4.36 PA, 1.03 H, 1.8 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.08 SB, 8.94 FPts
3. Willson Contreras: 4.28 PA, 0.97 H, 1.76 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.32 FPts
4. Nolan Arenado: 4.16 PA, 1.08 H, 2.01 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.73 FPts
5. Jordan Walker: 4.05 PA, 0.94 H, 1.5 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.3 FPts
6. Andrew Knizner: 3.71 PA, 0.77 H, 1.24 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.71 FPts
7. Taylor Motter: 3.57 PA, 0.77 H, 1.24 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.36 FPts
8. Richie Palacios: 3.77 PA, 0.84 H, 1.17 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.05 FPts
9. Masyn Winn: 3.54 PA, 0.79 H, 1.16 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.12 SB, 5.93 FPts

Best Bets

Rich Hill SD - Strikeouts Under 3.5 (+115.0) - 0.184 value
Richie Palacios STL - HitterK Under 0.5 (+125.0) - 0.139 value
Miles Mikolas STL - Outs Under 17.5 (+110.0) - 0.125 value
Trent Grisham SD - HitterK Under 0.5 (+200.0) - 0.121 value
Masyn Winn STL - HitterK Under 0.5 (+150.0) - 0.112 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Willson Contreras (STL) C $3800: 8.32 Proj, 1.27 Score
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) OF $5900: 9.35 Proj, 1.18 Score
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) 1B $5300: 8.94 Proj, 1.18 Score
Nolan Arenado (STL) 3B $5100: 8.73 Proj, 1.17 Score
Tommy Edman (STL) 2B/OF $4100: 8.44 Proj, 1.16 Score


MIL @ CHC

Projected Game Score:

MIL 4.57 - CHC 4.01
MIL 53.2% To Win
Vegas O/U: 6.5
Projected Total: 8.58

2023 Pitcher Stats

Brandon Woodruff: 6 GS, 551 Pitches, 31.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, 14.5 SwStr%, 52.8 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%, 35.9 GB%, 6 Brl%
Kyle Hendricks: 17 GS, 1604 Pitches, 15.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 9.1 SwStr%, 44.5 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%, 48.4 GB%, 7 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 98.0 Pitches 6.15 IP, 5.0 H, 2.5 ER, 7.6 K, 2.0 BB, 20.64 FPts
Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 97.0 Pitches 5.76 IP, 6.2 H, 3.0 ER, 4.3 K, 1.8 BB, 11.38 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Brandon Woodruff - 7.5 strikeouts
Kyle Hendricks - 3.5 strikeouts

MIL Hitter Projections

1. Christian Yelich: 4.44 PA, 1.15 H, 1.83 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.17 SB, 9.41 FPts
2. William Contreras: 4.37 PA, 1.13 H, 2.03 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.62 FPts
3. Carlos Santana: 4.25 PA, 0.96 H, 1.74 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.94 FPts
4. Sal Frelick: 4.13 PA, 0.93 H, 1.32 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.53 FPts
5. Willy Adames: 4.02 PA, 0.96 H, 1.8 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.85 FPts
6. Rowdy Tellez: 3.84 PA, 0.89 H, 1.72 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.42 FPts
7. Andruw Monasterio: 3.65 PA, 0.85 H, 1.31 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.46 FPts
8. Brice Turang: 3.61 PA, 0.81 H, 1.21 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.14 FPts
9. Tyrone Taylor: 3.32 PA, 0.76 H, 1.37 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.98 FPts

CHC Hitter Projections

1. Mike Tauchman: 4.56 PA, 0.88 H, 1.37 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.22 FPts
2. Nico Hoerner: 4.45 PA, 1.07 H, 1.56 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.21 SB, 7.87 FPts
3. Ian Happ: 4.34 PA, 0.86 H, 1.42 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.42 FPts
4. Cody Bellinger: 4.25 PA, 0.91 H, 1.5 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.14 SB, 7.43 FPts
5. Dansby Swanson: 4.12 PA, 0.88 H, 1.51 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.08 FPts
6. Seiya Suzuki: 4.07 PA, 0.85 H, 1.41 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.7 FPts
7. Jeimer Candelario: 3.92 PA, 0.84 H, 1.45 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.32 FPts
8. Christopher Morel: 3.8 PA, 0.7 H, 1.3 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.03 FPts
9. Miguel Amaya: 3.47 PA, 0.7 H, 1.18 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.35 FPts

Best Bets

Christopher Morel CHC - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-130.0) - 0.175 value
Jeimer Candelario CHC - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-175.0) - 0.142 value
Brice Turang MIL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-180.0) - 0.106 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Christian Yelich (MIL) OF $5200: 9.41 Proj, 1.22 Score
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) 1B $2700: 7.42 Proj, 1.21 Score
William Contreras (MIL) C $4800: 8.62 Proj, 1.21 Score
Carlos Santana (MIL) 1B $3600: 7.94 Proj, 1.12 Score
Willy Adames (MIL) SS $4200: 7.85 Proj, 1.12 Score

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