DFS & Betting Game Previews - August 7th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
We’ve got rain in these games
Nationals/Phillies
Braves/Pirates
Cubs/Mets
The Phillies game is the only one big ROTH has as orange, so we should be okay - but maybe we’ll avoid pitchers in those three games just in case. Need a better update this evening before making a decision!
DFS Preview
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
MIA (vs. Brandon Williamson): 78.79 Projected Points
TEX (vs. Ken Waldichuk): 73.08 Projected Points
PHI (vs. Trevor Williams): 71.53 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Osvaldo Bido): 70.37 Projected Points
MIL (vs. Peter Lambert): 69.21 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
DET (vs. Pablo Lopez): 52.11 Projected Points
PIT (vs. Spencer Strider): 54.09 Projected Points
COL (vs. Freddy Peralta): 55.96 Projected Points
CWS (vs. Gerrit Cole): 56.69 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Dane Dunning): 57.95 Projected Points
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Dane Dunning: 15.69 Today, 14.89 Previous Max
Peter Lambert: 10.17 Today, 9.09 Previous Max
Jorge Soler: 10.9 Today, 10.68 Previous Max
Jake Burger: 10.0 Today, 8.98 Previous Max
Josh Bell: 9.73 Today, 8.5 Previous Max
Bryan De La Cruz: 8.86 Today, 8.74 Previous Max
Avisail Garcia: 8.4 Today, 7.83 Previous Max
Ezequiel Duran: 8.25 Today, 8.0 Previous Max
Pitchers
Freddy Peralta $9,600 vs. COL
Spencer Strider $12,800 vs. PIT
Gerrit Cole $11,300 vs. CWS
Dane Dunning $7,200 vs. OAK
Cole Ragans $5,200 vs. BOS
Dylan Cease $8,500 vs. NYY
We have Strider and Cole on the slate, and both are very expensive. The only guy I am willing to pay an $11,000+ price tag is Strider - although I’m not saying that Cole is a horrible idea in this spot against the horrible White Sox.
With Strider, he has to do a whole lot to justify $12,800 - but the projection has him doing a whole lot - he’s way up there at 26.91 points for a 2.1x return. The rain in the forecast makes that a tough grab, but if the weather looks good I think I want Strider in cash.
The reason we can get one of Strider or Cole is that we have Cole Ragans down here at $5,200. He’s nothing like a lock or anything, but $5,200 for a guy with a 23.3% K% and a 13.1% SwStr% is pretty good, he’s a great cheap play in tourneys and you can even do it in cash.
Peralta gets my top play endorsement because of the home matchup with Colorado and the price being quite netricing. He’s the top value play at 2.43.
I’m going to play these “Hundo” contests again - and I think I’m going for Peralta + Ragans there. I wouldn’t necessarily do that in a double-up, but playing double-ups is stupid.
Team Hitting
Top Projections:
Rangers vs. Waldichuk
Braves vs. Bido
Brewers vs. Lambert
Top Values:
Royals vs. Bello
Yankees vs. Cease
Guardians vs. Ryu
Athletics vs. Dunning
Catchers
Mitch Garver $3,500 vs. Ken Waldichuk
William Contreras $4,900 vs. Peter Lambert
Francisco Alvarez $4,000 vs. Drew Smyly
Danny Jansen $3,200 vs. Gavin Williams
Freddy Fermin $2,900 vs. Brayan Bello
Play of the day is MITCH GARVER - who is getting more playing time with Heim hurt. He is projected to be in the lineup tonight against Waldichuk who has given up an .873 OPS to righties. Garver has been pretty good at the plate this year when he’s gotten his chances - and he has a (small sample) .962 OPS against lefties!
First Base
Seth Brown $3,300 vs. Dane Dunning
Mark Vientos $2,300 vs. Drew Smyly
Jake Bauers $2,600 vs. Dylan Cease
Shohei Ohtani $6,500 vs. Logan Webb
Nathaniel Lowe $4,400 vs. Ken Waldichuk
Dane Dunning was great last time out, but for the year has just a 10.3% K-BB% and has given up about a league average .322 xwOBA. The GB% is good at 47% and that’s helped him limit things to a .658 OPS - but has benefited from a .264 BABIP.
I’m not sure I really want to make Brown my play of the day, so I think this will be a position I just let the money dictate. Mark Vientos has a 13.6% Brl% on the year, but hasn’t done much else with a .576 OPS, and he’s a wild swinger with a 28% K% and a 4.5% BB%. What I’m saying is that he’s not a very good player, but you can certainly luck into a homer with him and the price is quite cheap.
The most solid play might be Lowe as the Rangers are just primed for a big night here, and you can get a piece of that with Lowe for a pretty moderate price tag.
Second Base
Marcus Semien $6,100 vs. Ken Waldichuk
Michael Massey $2,500 vs. Brayan Bello
Gleyber Torres $4,600 vs. Dylan Cease
Justin Turner $4,600 vs. Cole Ragans
Ozzie Albies $5,600 vs. Osvaldo Bido
Clearly Semien is the top play at 2B. He projects for 9.36 points, which is an okay 2.02 value mark, but considering floor and ceiling - he’s the model’s top play. I already have Garver + Lowe in the lineup I’m building, and I don’t really want to play any of these other guys at these prices - so Semien it is!
Third Base
Jose Ramirez $5,700 vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Maikel Garcia $3,700 vs. Brayan Bello
Mark Vientos $2,300 vs. Drew Smyly
Rafael Devers $5,200 vs. Cole Ragans
Ryan McMahon $4,400 vs. Freddy Peralta
Ramirez hasn’t really earned the $5,700 price tag this year, but this is a really good spot for Cleveland against Ryu. We will probably have to find a punt spot to get this lineup in under $50,000 - but for now I’m going with J-Ram.
Shortstop
Corey Seager $6,300 vs. Ken Waldichuk
Ezequiel Duran $3,700 vs. Ken Waldichuk
Bobby Witt Jr. $5,500 vs. Brayan Bello
Francisco Lindor $5,400 vs. Drew Smyly
Anthony Volpe $3,000 vs. Dylan Cease
Seager is one of the top projections overall, but I can’t get him while also playing Semien and Ramirez, so I think I’m going to drop from J-Ram to punt Vientos and then get Sesager Seager in here. We can also play Duran in the outfield - which we will probably end up doing!
Outfield
Aaron Judge $6,400 vs. Dylan Cease
Ronald Acuna Jr. $6,600 vs. Osvaldo Bido
Rob Refsnyder $2,700 vs. Cole Ragans
Adolis Garcia $5,800 vs. Ken Waldichuk
MJ Melendez $3,000 vs. Brayan Bello
Christian Yelich $5,600 vs. Peter Lambert
Ezequiel Duran $3,700 vs. Ken Waldichuk
Starling Marte $3,700 vs. Drew Smyly
Seth Brown $3,300 vs. Dane Dunning
Jake Bauers $2,600 vs. Dylan Cease
Shohei Ohtani $6,500 vs. Logan Webb
Austin Slater $3,200 vs. Patrick Sandoval
Robbie Grossman $2,600 vs. Ken Waldichuk
Drew Waters $2,800 vs. Bryan Bello
Mark Canha $2,700 vs. Peter Lambert
We finally get lead-off man Robert Refsnyder back. It feels like it has been awhile!
If we slap in Duran + Refsnyder for cheap, we have $6,200 left for our final outfielder - that would be enough for Adolis Garcia, except that would be my 6th Ranger, which would be against the rules…
So we can shuffle some stuff around and get to this:
SP1 Freddy Peralta
SP2 Cole Ragans
C Mitch Garver
1B Wilmer Flores
2B Marcus Semien
3B Maikel Garcia
SS Corey Seager
OF Adolis Garcia
OF Rob Refsnyder
OF Ezequiel Duran
So there you go! Now on to the game-by-game previews, the pay wall, and then the best model bets.
Game by Game Previews
LAD @ SD
Projected Game Score:
SD 4.62 - LAD 4.32
SD 51.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.94
2023 Pitcher Stats
Seth Lugo: 16 GS, 1438 Pitches, 24.0 K%, 5.2 BB%, 10.8 SwStr%, 47.4 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%, 46.7 GB%, 9 Brl%
Tony Gonsolin: 17 GS, 1392 Pitches, 19.5 K%, 9.3 BB%, 10.0 SwStr%, 45.7 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%, 37.9 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Seth Lugo (SD): 97 Pitches 5.94 IP, 5.7 H, 2.7 ER, 5.3 K, 2.1 BB, 14.57 FPts
Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 89 Pitches 5.58 IP, 4.9 H, 2.6 ER, 4.5 K, 3.0 BB, 12.22 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Seth Lugo - 4.5 strikeouts
Tony Gonsolin - 3.5 strikeouts
LAD Hitter Projections
1. Mookie Betts: 4.55 PA, 1.06 H, 2.0 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.09 SB, 9.29 FPts
2. Freddie Freeman: 4.49 PA, 1.19 H, 2.0 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 9.58 FPts
3. Will Smith: 4.43 PA, 0.95 H, 1.57 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.64 FPts
4. Max Muncy: 4.24 PA, 0.74 H, 1.52 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.87 FPts
5. David Peralta: 3.89 PA, 0.92 H, 1.47 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.59 FPts
6. Jason Heyward: 3.67 PA, 0.78 H, 1.36 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.14 FPts
7. Enrique Hernandez: 3.87 PA, 0.78 H, 1.2 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.31 FPts
8. James Outman: 3.75 PA, 0.72 H, 1.23 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.41 FPts
9. Miguel Rojas: 3.45 PA, 0.78 H, 1.1 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.29 FPts
SD Hitter Projections
1. Ha-Seong Kim: 4.46 PA, 0.93 H, 1.46 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.21 FPts
2. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 4.43 PA, 0.99 H, 1.91 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.22 SB, 9.67 FPts
3. Juan Soto: 4.33 PA, 0.85 H, 1.56 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.07 SB, 9.66 FPts
4. Manny Machado: 4.21 PA, 0.95 H, 1.65 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.01 FPts
5. Xander Bogaerts: 4.14 PA, 0.96 H, 1.49 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.49 FPts
6. Jake Cronenworth: 4.03 PA, 0.8 H, 1.24 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.33 FPts
7. Ji-Man Choi: 3.73 PA, 0.7 H, 1.19 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.15 FPts
8. Luis Campusano: 3.79 PA, 0.83 H, 1.31 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.54 FPts
9. Trent Grisham: 3.52 PA, 0.61 H, 1.09 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.26 FPts
Best Bets
Tony Gonsolin LAD - Walks Over 2.5 (+135.0) - 0.142 value
Tony Gonsolin LAD - Outs Over 15.5 (+110.0) - 0.129 value
Trent Grisham SD - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-175.0) - 0.104 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
MIA @ CIN
Projected Game Score:
MIA 6.12 - CIN 4.24
MIA 59.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 10.5
Projected Total: 10.36
2023 Pitcher Stats
Eury Perez: 10 GS, 881 Pitches, 28.4 K%, 7.9 BB%, 15.4 SwStr%, 48.4 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%, 34.6 GB%, 9 Brl%
Brandon Williamson: 14 GS, 1131 Pitches, 19.1 K%, 10.1 BB%, 9.8 SwStr%, 45.5 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%, 34.5 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Eury Perez (MIA): 70 Pitches 4.16 IP, 3.5 H, 1.9 ER, 5.0 K, 1.5 BB, 13.35 FPts
Brandon Williamson (CIN): 80 Pitches 4.6 IP, 5.0 H, 2.7 ER, 3.5 K, 1.9 BB, 8.39 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Eury Perez - 5.5 strikeouts
Brandon Williamson - 3.5 strikeouts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Luis Arraez: 4.69 PA, 1.26 H, 1.78 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.63 FPts
2. Jorge Soler: 4.59 PA, 1.01 H, 2.25 TB, 0.34 HR, 0.01 SB, 10.9 FPts
3. Josh Bell: 4.47 PA, 1.01 H, 1.84 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.73 FPts
4. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.4 PA, 1.06 H, 1.88 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.86 FPts
5. Jake Burger: 4.2 PA, 1.04 H, 2.25 TB, 0.29 HR, 0.01 SB, 10.0 FPts
6. Avisail Garcia: 4.1 PA, 0.96 H, 1.77 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.4 FPts
7. Yuli Gurriel: 4.07 PA, 0.97 H, 1.45 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.18 FPts
8. Jon Berti: 3.8 PA, 0.89 H, 1.4 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.27 SB, 8.43 FPts
9. Nick Fortes: 3.63 PA, 0.82 H, 1.36 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.66 FPts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. Elly De La Cruz: 4.52 PA, 0.95 H, 1.57 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.11 FPts
2. TJ Friedl: 4.33 PA, 0.97 H, 1.45 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.74 FPts
3. Spencer Steer: 4.32 PA, 0.88 H, 1.46 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.46 FPts
4. Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 4.22 PA, 0.93 H, 1.74 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.58 FPts
5. Joey Votto: 4.05 PA, 0.77 H, 1.53 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.55 FPts
6. Tyler Stephenson: 3.9 PA, 0.85 H, 1.35 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.35 FPts
7. Kevin Newman: 3.82 PA, 0.92 H, 1.31 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.16 FPts
8. Will Benson: 3.51 PA, 0.62 H, 1.09 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.28 FPts
9. Stuart Fairchild: 3.23 PA, 0.63 H, 1.12 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.67 FPts
Best Bets
Will Benson CIN - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-155.0) - 0.136 value
Stuart Fairchild CIN - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-160.0) - 0.108 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
MIN @ DET
Projected Game Score:
MIN 4.12 - DET 2.96
MIN 58.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.08
2023 Pitcher Stats
Pablo Lopez: 22 GS, 2102 Pitches, 29.9 K%, 6.4 BB%, 15.2 SwStr%, 51.2 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%, 41.3 GB%, 8 Brl%
Joey Wentz: 15 GS, 1372 Pitches, 20.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 11.3 SwStr%, 45.5 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%, 38.0 GB%, 11 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Pablo Lopez (MIN): 95 Pitches 5.89 IP, 4.9 H, 2.3 ER, 7.4 K, 1.5 BB, 20.41 FPts
Joey Wentz (DET): 75 Pitches 4.53 IP, 4.3 H, 2.1 ER, 4.1 K, 1.6 BB, 11.25 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Pablo Lopez - 7.5 strikeouts
Joey Wentz - 4.5 strikeouts
MIN Hitter Projections
1. Donovan Solano: 4.24 PA, 1.01 H, 1.47 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.72 FPts
2. Jorge Polanco: 4.34 PA, 1.03 H, 1.87 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.37 FPts
3. Carlos Correa: 4.23 PA, 0.96 H, 1.63 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.48 FPts
4. Max Kepler: 4.04 PA, 0.87 H, 1.49 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.03 FPts
5. Ryan Jeffers: 4.06 PA, 0.84 H, 1.5 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.91 FPts
6. Kyle Farmer: 3.85 PA, 0.97 H, 1.57 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.75 FPts
7. Willi Castro: 3.86 PA, 0.9 H, 1.41 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.18 SB, 7.08 FPts
8. Jordan Luplow: 3.77 PA, 0.66 H, 1.14 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.93 FPts
9. Michael A. Taylor: 3.2 PA, 0.7 H, 1.2 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.57 FPts
DET Hitter Projections
1. Zach McKinstry: 4.29 PA, 0.82 H, 1.35 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.07 FPts
2. Matt Vierling: 4.35 PA, 0.98 H, 1.44 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.47 FPts
3. Riley Greene: 4.3 PA, 0.97 H, 1.51 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.77 FPts
4. Spencer Torkelson: 4.24 PA, 0.82 H, 1.39 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.0 FPts
5. Kerry Carpenter: 3.95 PA, 0.9 H, 1.53 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.23 FPts
6. Javier Baez: 3.93 PA, 0.85 H, 1.35 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.69 FPts
7. Akil Baddoo: 3.61 PA, 0.7 H, 1.04 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.14 SB, 5.46 FPts
8. Jake Rogers: 3.64 PA, 0.65 H, 1.19 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.03 FPts
9. Nick Maton: 3.26 PA, 0.56 H, 0.93 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 4.39 FPts
Best Bets
Jake Rogers DET - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-135.0) - 0.102 value
Joey Wentz DET - Outs Under 15.5 (-155.0) - 0.101 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
WSH @ PHI
Projected Game Score:
PHI 5.04 - WSH 3.96
PHI 56.0% To Win
Vegas O/U: 10.0
Projected Total: 9.0
2023 Pitcher Stats
Ranger Suarez: 15 GS, 1381 Pitches, 20.8 K%, 8.2 BB%, 10.2 SwStr%, 44.0 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%, 53.3 GB%, 8 Brl%
Trevor Williams: 22 GS, 1901 Pitches, 16.4 K%, 7.5 BB%, 9.0 SwStr%, 43.3 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%, 39.6 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Ranger Suarez (PHI): 80 Pitches 4.91 IP, 5.0 H, 2.2 ER, 4.0 K, 1.3 BB, 12.08 FPts
Trevor Williams (WSH): 92 Pitches 5.53 IP, 6.0 H, 3.0 ER, 4.6 K, 1.7 BB, 11.41 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Ranger Suarez - 4.5 strikeouts
Trevor Williams - 3.5 strikeouts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. C.J. Abrams: 4.54 PA, 1.08 H, 1.65 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.06 FPts
2. Lane Thomas: 4.46 PA, 1.07 H, 1.8 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.16 FPts
3. Joey Meneses: 4.35 PA, 1.11 H, 1.78 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.51 FPts
4. Keibert Ruiz: 4.28 PA, 1.09 H, 1.65 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.38 FPts
5. Stone Garrett: 3.99 PA, 0.87 H, 1.47 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.03 FPts
6. Dominic Smith: 4.06 PA, 0.94 H, 1.29 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.92 FPts
7. Ildemaro Vargas: 3.94 PA, 0.95 H, 1.39 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.98 FPts
8. Alex Call: 3.74 PA, 0.73 H, 1.11 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.18 FPts
9. Michael Chavis: 3.57 PA, 0.79 H, 1.23 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.29 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.56 PA, 0.93 H, 2.04 TB, 0.3 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.97 FPts
2. Alec Bohm: 4.45 PA, 1.1 H, 1.63 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.24 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.31 PA, 1.1 H, 1.9 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.57 FPts
4. Nick Castellanos: 4.23 PA, 1.05 H, 1.75 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.84 FPts
5. Bryson Stott: 4.14 PA, 1.07 H, 1.6 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.66 FPts
6. J.T. Realmuto: 4.0 PA, 0.99 H, 1.77 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.28 FPts
7. Trea Turner: 3.89 PA, 0.96 H, 1.52 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.19 SB, 7.66 FPts
8. Jake Cave: 3.51 PA, 0.76 H, 1.32 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.07 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.55 PA, 0.89 H, 1.48 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.24 FPts
Best Bets
Ranger Suarez PHI - Outs Under 17.5 (+115.0) - 0.306 value
Trevor Williams WSH - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-120.0) - 0.126 value
Trevor Williams WSH - Outs Over 15.5 (+110.0) - 0.115 value
Michael Chavis WSH - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-175.0) - 0.113 value
Alec Bohm PHI - H+R+RBI Under 2.5 (-150.0) - 0.104 value
Trea Turner PHI - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-120.0) - 0.102 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) OF $5200: 9.97 Proj, 1.37 Score
Bryce Harper (PHI) 1B $5700: 9.57 Proj, 1.25 Score
Johan Rojas (PHI) OF $2400: 7.24 Proj, 1.18 Score
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) C $5100: 8.28 Proj, 1.15 Score
Nick Castellanos (PHI) OF $4700: 7.84 Proj, 1.08 Score
ATL @ PIT
Projected Game Score:
ATL 5.11 - PIT 3.28
ATL 60.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.39
2023 Pitcher Stats
Spencer Strider: 22 GS, 2194 Pitches, 39.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, 21.8 SwStr%, 55.9 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%, 34.4 GB%, 10 Brl%
Osvaldo Bido: 7 GS, 620 Pitches, 19.9 K%, 9.0 BB%, 9.2 SwStr%, 45.8 Strike%, 37.3 Ball%, 35.2 GB%, 4 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Spencer Strider (ATL): 102 Pitches 6.63 IP, 4.5 H, 2.4 ER, 9.8 K, 2.3 BB, 26.91 FPts
Osvaldo Bido (PIT): 63 Pitches 3.77 IP, 3.7 H, 2.0 ER, 3.0 K, 1.5 BB, 7.47 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Spencer Strider - 9.5 strikeouts
Osvaldo Bido - 3.5 strikeouts
ATL Hitter Projections
1. Ronald Acuna Jr.: 4.5 PA, 1.14 H, 1.89 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.37 SB, 11.21 FPts
2. Ozzie Albies: 4.4 PA, 1.01 H, 1.67 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.1 FPts
3. Austin Riley: 4.3 PA, 1.01 H, 1.8 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.0 FPts
4. Matt Olson: 4.21 PA, 0.88 H, 1.74 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.61 FPts
5. Sean Murphy: 4.08 PA, 0.87 H, 1.54 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.29 FPts
6. Marcell Ozuna: 3.96 PA, 0.81 H, 1.49 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.76 FPts
7. Eddie Rosario: 3.67 PA, 0.84 H, 1.4 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.48 FPts
8. Orlando Arcia: 3.75 PA, 0.87 H, 1.36 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.36 FPts
9. Michael Harris II: 3.48 PA, 0.93 H, 1.53 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.56 FPts
PIT Hitter Projections
1. Josh Palacios: 4.26 PA, 0.81 H, 1.23 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.12 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.53 PA, 0.97 H, 1.69 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.63 FPts
3. Andrew McCutchen: 4.48 PA, 0.75 H, 1.23 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.58 FPts
4. Alfonso Rivas: 4.41 PA, 0.74 H, 1.07 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.57 FPts
5. Jack Suwinski: 4.15 PA, 0.58 H, 1.21 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.33 FPts
6. Ke'Bryan Hayes: 4.13 PA, 0.8 H, 1.17 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.12 SB, 5.75 FPts
7. Endy Rodriguez: 4.06 PA, 0.75 H, 1.22 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.49 FPts
8. Liover Peguero: 3.92 PA, 0.71 H, 1.17 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.6 FPts
9. Alika Williams: 3.67 PA, 0.71 H, 1.09 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.02 FPts
Best Bets
Liover Peguero PIT - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-120.0) - 0.173 value
Spencer Strider ATL - Outs Over 18.5 (+120.0) - 0.154 value
Alika Williams PIT - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-130.0) - 0.146 value
Marcell Ozuna ATL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-135.0) - 0.109 value
Spencer Strider ATL - Walks Over 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.106 value
Ozzie Albies ATL - H+R+RBI Under 2.5 (-145.0) - 0.104 value
Jack Suwinski PIT - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-160.0) - 0.103 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) OF $6600: 11.21 Proj, 1.44 Score
Matt Olson (ATL) 1B $6200: 8.61 Proj, 1.12 Score
Michael Harris II (ATL) OF $4200: 7.56 Proj, 1.08 Score
Ozzie Albies (ATL) 2B $5600: 8.1 Proj, 1.05 Score
Austin Riley (ATL) 3B $6000: 8.0 Proj, 1.02 Score
CHC @ NYM
Projected Game Score:
NYM 4.53 - CHC 3.54
NYM 56.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.07
2023 Pitcher Stats
Kodai Senga: 19 GS, 1834 Pitches, 28.8 K%, 11.8 BB%, 13.1 SwStr%, 45.8 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%, 44.8 GB%, 6 Brl%
Drew Smyly: 20 GS, 1878 Pitches, 21.0 K%, 7.6 BB%, 11.4 SwStr%, 45.0 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%, 35.0 GB%, 7 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Kodai Senga (NYM): 99 Pitches 6.14 IP, 5.0 H, 2.6 ER, 6.6 K, 3.1 BB, 17.61 FPts
Drew Smyly (CHC): 86 Pitches 5.35 IP, 5.6 H, 2.6 ER, 4.4 K, 1.6 BB, 11.86 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Kodai Senga - 6.5 strikeouts
Drew Smyly - 4.5 strikeouts
CHC Hitter Projections
1. Mike Tauchman: 4.44 PA, 0.83 H, 1.26 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.23 FPts
2. Nico Hoerner: 4.28 PA, 1.01 H, 1.42 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.21 SB, 7.52 FPts
3. Ian Happ: 4.18 PA, 0.78 H, 1.27 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.43 FPts
4. Cody Bellinger: 4.1 PA, 0.86 H, 1.38 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.26 FPts
5. Dansby Swanson: 3.97 PA, 0.81 H, 1.35 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.74 FPts
6. Jeimer Candelario: 3.9 PA, 0.83 H, 1.38 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.33 FPts
7. Christopher Morel: 3.8 PA, 0.71 H, 1.28 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.18 FPts
8. Nick Madrigal: 3.68 PA, 0.92 H, 1.18 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.64 FPts
9. Tucker Barnhart: 3.17 PA, 0.58 H, 0.78 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.0 SB, 3.95 FPts
NYM Hitter Projections
1. Brandon Nimmo: 4.5 PA, 1.03 H, 1.61 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.93 FPts
2. Francisco Alvarez: 4.41 PA, 0.99 H, 1.93 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.24 FPts
3. Francisco Lindor: 4.29 PA, 1.01 H, 1.8 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.84 FPts
4. Pete Alonso: 4.22 PA, 0.98 H, 1.93 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.93 FPts
5. Starling Marte: 4.06 PA, 1.02 H, 1.59 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.26 SB, 8.36 FPts
6. Jeff McNeil: 4.0 PA, 1.01 H, 1.37 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.34 FPts
7. Mark Vientos: 3.78 PA, 0.89 H, 1.8 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.45 FPts
8. Brett Baty: 3.73 PA, 0.77 H, 1.2 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.63 FPts
9. Danny Mendick: 3.52 PA, 0.74 H, 1.04 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.12 FPts
Best Bets
Kodai Senga NYM - Walks Over 2.5 (+135.0) - 0.171 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Starling Marte (NYM) OF $3700: 8.36 Proj, 1.24 Score
Mark Vientos (NYM) 1B/3B $2300: 7.45 Proj, 1.22 Score
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) C $4000: 8.24 Proj, 1.22 Score
Francisco Lindor (NYM) SS $5400: 8.84 Proj, 1.2 Score
Pete Alonso (NYM) 1B $5600: 8.93 Proj, 1.15 Score
TOR @ CLE
Projected Game Score:
TOR 4.04 - CLE 3.38
TOR 54.4% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 7.42
2023 Pitcher Stats
Gavin Williams: 8 GS, 714 Pitches, 20.7 K%, 11.7 BB%, 12.5 SwStr%, 47.2 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%, 35.8 GB%, 4 Brl%
Hyun Jin Ryu: 1 GS, 80 Pitches, 13.0 K%, 4.3 BB%, 10.0 SwStr%, 43.8 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%, 52.6 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Gavin Williams (CLE): 88 Pitches 5.56 IP, 4.9 H, 2.6 ER, 5.1 K, 2.5 BB, 13.75 FPts
Hyun Jin Ryu (TOR): 82 Pitches 5.02 IP, 5.6 H, 2.3 ER, 3.4 K, 1.0 BB, 10.26 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Gavin Williams - 4.5 strikeouts
Hyun Jin Ryu - 3.5 strikeouts
TOR Hitter Projections
1. Whit Merrifield: 4.37 PA, 0.97 H, 1.39 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.23 SB, 7.45 FPts
2. Brandon Belt: 4.16 PA, 0.76 H, 1.38 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.2 FPts
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4.27 PA, 1.02 H, 1.79 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.07 FPts
4. George Springer: 4.17 PA, 0.95 H, 1.58 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.77 FPts
5. Matt Chapman: 4.05 PA, 0.79 H, 1.49 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.1 FPts
6. Danny Jansen: 3.86 PA, 0.83 H, 1.66 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.85 FPts
7. Daulton Varsho: 3.78 PA, 0.77 H, 1.36 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.78 FPts
8. Davis Schneider: 3.72 PA, 0.69 H, 1.25 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.38 FPts
9. Paul DeJong: 3.45 PA, 0.64 H, 1.09 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.21 FPts
CLE Hitter Projections
1. Steven Kwan: 4.48 PA, 1.16 H, 1.48 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.19 FPts
2. Oscar Gonzalez: 4.27 PA, 1.14 H, 1.85 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.2 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.27 PA, 1.11 H, 2.01 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.17 SB, 9.15 FPts
4. David Fry: 3.87 PA, 0.88 H, 1.59 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.53 FPts
5. Andres Gimenez: 4.06 PA, 1.02 H, 1.64 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.49 FPts
6. Gabriel Arias: 3.82 PA, 0.7 H, 1.09 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.13 FPts
7. Brayan Rocchio: 3.86 PA, 0.89 H, 1.34 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.12 FPts
8. Myles Straw: 3.73 PA, 0.87 H, 1.14 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.16 SB, 5.81 FPts
9. Cam Gallagher: 3.19 PA, 0.62 H, 0.88 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.0 SB, 3.62 FPts
Best Bets
Gavin Williams CLE - Outs Over 15.5 (+110.0) - 0.123 value
Cam Gallagher CLE - H+R+RBI Under 1.5 (-170.0) - 0.121 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 3B $5700: 9.15 Proj, 1.25 Score
Brandon Belt (TOR) 1B $3300: 7.2 Proj, 1.14 Score
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 1B $5100: 8.07 Proj, 1.13 Score
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE) OF $2600: 7.2 Proj, 1.12 Score
Danny Jansen (TOR) C $3200: 6.85 Proj, 1.12 Score
And now we reach the paywall. Subscribe today to get the rest of this post, the full daily notes, full projections and full bet values every day for dozens and dozens of player props, access to the Tableau dashboards, custom daily-updated Google Sheets, and so much more! Read the about page here for more information.