DFS & Betting Game Previews - July 28th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
The paywall is BACK today after a freebie on Tuesday. But I’ll do the DFS preview above the pay wall, and in fact, we’ll do that first. Then we’ll do game-by-game previews and the best bets at the bottom.
It feels like people are already shifting toward football season but we have two full months left of baseball, that’s one third of the season! So let’s keep going at it.
DFS Preview
Weather problems in Pittsburgh (Phillies are there) and Baltimore (Yankees are there). Keep an eye on those spots, but it seems like we’re mostly in the clear.
Vegas Implied Run Totals
LAD 5.8
COL 5.7
ATL 5.6
MIN 5.6
CLE 5.3
OAK 5.3
Those are the teams above five right now. There’s a Coors game with Oakland there, which is a pretty interesting situation since there’s usually nothing to like on Oakland. But the big offense is the Dodgers against Brandon Williamson.
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
ATL (vs. Adrian Houser): 78.98 Projected Points
LAD (vs. Brandon Williamson): 78.91 Projected Points
NYY (vs. Grayson Rodriguez): 78.66 Projected Points
SEA (vs. Tommy Henry): 77.92 Projected Points
CLE (vs. Touki Toussaint): 71.4 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
DET (vs. Braxton Garrett): 50.54 Projected Points
WSH (vs. Max Scherzer): 52.28 Projected Points
PIT (vs. Zack Wheeler): 56.25 Projected Points
MIA (vs. Reese Olson): 58.7 Projected Points
LAA (vs. Kevin Gausman): 59.21 Projected Points
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Jake Bauers: 9.07 Today, 8.54 Previous Max
Aaron Judge: 13.68 Today, 13.09 Previous Max
Andres Gimenez: 9.29 Today, 8.89 Previous Max
Tyler O'Neill: 9.65 Today, 9.54 Previous Max
Brent Rooker: 8.79 Today, 8.15 Previous Max
Jordan Diaz: 7.26 Today, 7.06 Previous Max
Shea Langeliers: 6.99 Today, 6.74 Previous Max
Ezequiel Tovar: 8.61 Today, 8.3 Previous Max
Julio Rodriguez: 10.77 Today, 10.63 Previous Max
Eugenio Suarez: 9.06 Today, 8.24 Previous Max
Teoscar Hernandez: 10.07 Today, 9.58 Previous Max
Tom Murphy: 7.4 Today, 6.77 Previous Max
Chris Taylor: 8.57 Today, 8.3 Previous Max
Pitching
Top Raw Projections
Gausman vs. LAA 20.8
Wheeler vs. PIT 19.9
Cole vs. BAL 17.8
Musgrove vs. TEX 17.1
Scherzer vs. WSH 16.4
S Gray vs. KC 16.3
Keller vs. PHI 16.1
K Crawford 15.9
C Javier vs. TB 15.6
Webb vs. BOS 15.4
Top Values
K Crawford vs. SF $6,500
G Rodriguez vs. NYY $6,300
Sears vs. COL $6,200
Wheeler vs. PIT $9,800
Singer vs. MIN $6,400
Gausman vs. LAA $10,800
Miller vs. CIN $7,700
Houser vs. ATL $5,500
Gore vs. NYM $7,300
Smyly vs. STL $4,700
Ohtani reportedly left with a cramp yesterday. He’ll probably be in the lineup today, but if he’s out it’s pretty clear that Gausman is the topa rm by a good margin. If Ohtani is in, he’s still the top projected arm - but Wheeler gives him a real run for his money in terms of who the best play is. However, there’s rain in Pittsburgh - so it’s hard to say the guy isn’t Gausman tonight.
I think we can be okay fading the $11,000 Cole and the $9,700 Musgrove against Texas, and Scherzer is at $9,400 against the Nationals who have a collective 19% K% - so that’s not good for his ceiling tonight.
Kutter Crawford is a clear play here. He has a 19% SwStr% in two of his last three starts. He’s a 24% K% in my base model projection, and the Giants add on to that a bit. He’s a fantastic play at $6,500 - I think that’s a misprice.
I can certainly want some Grayson Rodriguez in GPP even with Judge back. He has a huge ceiling despite his struggles in the Majors. The other guy that’s pretty interesting here is Bobby Miller for $7,700. The Reds aren’t a bad offense, but they do have a lot of whiff in that lineup - and this game is away from Cincy.
So here’s what I’m looking at:
Cash/Safety: Gausman, Wheeler (if the weather is fine), Crawford, Cole
GPP Pool: Gore, Sonny Gray, McClanahan, Crawford, Miller, Rodriguez
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Hitters
The team situations to target:
Dodgers vs. Williamson
Athletics vs. Freeland
Rockies vs. Sears
Mariners vs. Henry
Braves vs. Houser
Cardinals vs. Smyly
Catchers
Tom Murphy $2,400 vs. Henry
Will Smith $5,400 vs. Williamson
Cal Raleigh $3,900 vs. Henry
William Contreras $4,800 vs. Chirinos
B Naylor $2,800 vs. Toussaint
E Diaz $4,500 vs. Sears
Tom Murphy has always been able to barrel the ball, and he’s still showing that ability this year with an 18% Brl% (that leads the team - lol). Tommy Henry is not very good, so Murphy is my guy at the catcher position in a one-lineup situation.
First Base
Freddie Freeman $6,200 vs. Williamson
Josh Bell $2,900 vs. Toussaint
C.J. Cron $4,700 vs. Sears
LaMonte Wade Jr. $3,800 vs. Crawford
Mark Vientos $2,500 vs. Gore
Freddie Freeman is the best cash option most days of the year, but especially tonight in this great spot for the Dodgers. But $6,200 for him is a little tough given he doesn’t really have that like 2HR+2SB upside that some other super expensive guys have. But you can’t do a lot better in cash.
Mark Vientos has a very high projected barrel rate, and faces off against the lefty Gore here. He’s a pretty appealing target for upside at just $2,500, but we don’t have that lineup yet.
It’s probably going to be one of those guys or C.J. Cron for me. Sears gives up the second-most fly balls in the league (behind Andrew Abbott), and that’s a pretty good situation for Rockies righties.
Second Base
Dylan Moore $2,200 vs. Henry
Mookie Betts $6,300 vs. Williamson
Andres Gimenez $4,000 vs. Toussaint
Edouard Julien $3,300 vs. Singer
Gleyber Torres $4,900 vs. Rodriguez
Pretty much every player’s floor is zero, but Dylan Moore’s floor is really, really zero. He is whiffing a ton, like A TON this year (57% Contact%), but when he’s making contact it has been very loud (37% Brl%!) and this guy is one of the more steal-happy players in the league. For $2,200 he makes for a pretty good salary saver. You can then play the Dodgers - and you don’t have to give up Betts for him because you can plug him in in the outfield.
Julien is also a quite strong option with his barrel happy ways of late. He has a great chance to put one over a fence tonight. His problem is the strikeout, but Singer doesn’t do much of that. The thing to worry about is that a lefty comes in and they pull him. He has been pinch hit for at a high rate this year. I think I’ll probably hold my nose and click on Moore and then hope for some fireworks against Henry.
Third Base
Eugenio Suarez $3,200 vs. Henry
Jose Ramirez $5,800 vs. Toussaint
Chris Taylor $3,200 vs. Williamson
Nolan Arenado $5,500 vs. Smyly
Max Muncy $4,800 vs. Williamson
There’s not a ton to love here. Eugenio Suarez has been showing signs of life lately, and he could certainly hit a homer or two tonight (17% Brl% sine June, 14% for the year). The price is easy to stomach, but yeah - he’s not a very exciting play on any given slate.
Max Muncy is also significantly less likely to homer against lefties, and hitting homers is how he scores almost all of his points.
Nolan Arenado is pretty interesting here but that $5,500 is so far up there. Suarez would seem to be the right choice here, but I really am not going to like a lineup that ends up with Moore AND Suarez in it. But you gotta save the money somewhere, I suppose!
Shortstop
Anthony Volpe $3,100 vs. Rodriguez
Francisco Lindor $4,800 vs. Gore
JP Crawford $3,400 vs. Henry
Matt McLain $5,900 vs. Miller
Bo Bichette $5,300 vs. Giolito
Nothing pops out here either. Maybe we just go to Lindor for the safety, I’m definitely not going to do a full infield of Mariners here.
Outfield
Aaron Judge $6,000 vs. Rodriguez
Dylan Moore $2,200 vs. Henry
Teoscar Hernandez $3,300 vs. Henry
Jake Bauers $2,500 vs. Rodriguez
Mookie Betts $6,300 vs. Williamson
Tyler O’Neill $3,500 vs. Smyly
Ronald Acuna Jr. $6,600 vs. Houser
Julio Rodriguez $5,200 vs. Henry
Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,100 vs. Dunning
Chris Taylor $3,200 vs. Williamson
Joc Pederson $4,200 vs. Crawford
Giancarlo Stanton $5,000 vs. Rodriguez
Ramon Laureano $3,200 vs. Freeland
Brent Rooker $3,800 vs. Freeland
Using those cheap Mariners gets me to a draft lineup like this:
SP1: Gausman
SP2: Crawford
C: T Murphy
1B: Vientos
2B: Moore
SS: Lindor
3B: Suarez
OF: Betts
OF: J Rodriguez
OF: Judge
Actually, I’ve changed my mind, we’ll do the best bets now and then let the rest of the long post be game previews. But the paywall hits first, so subscribe to get the rest of this post and everything else that will go down for ht next two months - and all of the offseason content which, I think, will be pretty close to unmatched!