DFS & Betting Game Previews - July 19th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
It’s Wednesday, which means all day baseball. I’m ramming this out before the first game at 12:30 eastern, so we’re limited on extra stuff today.
One new thing on the betting prop sheet is pitcher outs recorded. I set this up to work in the same way as strikeouts and walks, which have been profitable. I do feel less confident in this one because outs work a little bit differently than strikeouts and walks. I don’t expect a ton, but it’ll be fun to see - and I’ll incorporate that into my best bets moving forward.
I remind you once again of the prop betting trackers:
Since we’ve added something new, let’s just give the bets for free!
Algo Recommended Bets
Brayan Bello over 1.5 BB +105
Cristopher Sanchez over 1.5 BB +140
Justin Verlander under 6.5 K -110
Brandon Bielak over 3.% K -110
Colin Rea over 3.5 K -165
Kenta Maeda over 5.5 K -105
Charlie Morton under 6.5 K -135
As for the new outs props:
Colin Rea over 15.5 outs +130
Jose Berrios under 17.5 outs +110
We’ll track those results!
DFS Stuff
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
ATL (vs. Ryne Nelson): 82.63 Projected Points
HOU (vs. Austin Gomber): 75.06 Projected Points
CIN (vs. Ross Stripling): 72.67 Projected Points
PHI (vs. Colin Rea): 71.96 Projected Points
SF (vs. Graham Ashcraft): 71.95 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
MIN (vs. Luis Castillo): 53.07 Projected Points
CWS (vs. Justin Verlander): 53.39 Projected Points
LAA (vs. Carlos Rodon): 54.68 Projected Points
OAK (vs. Brayan Bello): 56.85 Projected Points
BAL (vs. Julio Urias): 59.37 Projected Points
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Brayan Bello: 18.29 Today, 15.81 Previous Max
Cristopher Sanchez: 12.62 Today, 11.97 Previous Max
Michael Harris II: 9.28 Today, 8.85 Previous Max
Patrick Bailey: 9.13 Today, 9.09 Previous Max
Chas McCormick: 8.94 Today, 8.38 Previous Max
Mauricio Dubon: 8.21 Today, 7.84 Previous Max
Corey Julks: 7.78 Today, 7.6 Previous Max
Tyrone Taylor: 7.71 Today, 7.55 Previous Max
Martin Maldonado: 5.86 Today, 5.65 Previous Max
Game by Game Previews
CLE @ PIT
Projected Game Score:
CLE 4.38 - PIT 3.96
CLE 52.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.34
2023 Pitcher Stats
Aaron Civale: 10 GS, 921 Pitches, 19.7 K%, 7.3 BB%, 9.9 SwStr%, 47.1 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%, 40.1 GB%, 5 Brl%
Rich Hill: 19 GS, 1787 Pitches, 20.2 K%, 8.9 BB%, 8.8 SwStr%, 46.2 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%, 38.3 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Aaron Civale (CLE): 93 Pitches 5.54 IP, 5.0 H, 2.6 ER, 5.4 K, 2.1 BB, 14.29 FPts
Rich Hill (PIT): 94 Pitches 5.6 IP, 5.8 H, 2.8 ER, 3.6 K, 2.0 BB, 9.95 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Aaron Civale - 4.5 strikeouts
Rich Hill - 3.5 strikeouts
CLE Hitter Projections
1. Steven Kwan: 4.51 PA, 1.13 H, 1.48 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.14 SB, 7.88 FPts
2. Amed Rosario: 4.41 PA, 1.13 H, 1.69 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.84 FPts
3. Jose Ramirez: 4.32 PA, 1.08 H, 1.96 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.17 SB, 9.53 FPts
4. Josh Bell: 4.21 PA, 0.94 H, 1.61 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.93 FPts
5. Andres Gimenez: 4.07 PA, 1.01 H, 1.61 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.02 FPts
6. Tyler Freeman: 3.93 PA, 0.9 H, 1.23 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.24 FPts
7. David Fry: 3.9 PA, 0.88 H, 1.59 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.83 FPts
8. Myles Straw: 3.75 PA, 0.86 H, 1.13 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.17 SB, 6.43 FPts
9. Cam Gallagher: 3.37 PA, 0.66 H, 0.93 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.22 FPts
PIT Hitter Projections
1. Jack Suwinski: 4.41 PA, 0.84 H, 1.75 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.6 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.34 PA, 1.06 H, 1.83 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.25 FPts
3. Carlos Santana: 4.29 PA, 0.86 H, 1.43 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.99 FPts
4. Ji-Man Choi: 4.05 PA, 0.84 H, 1.44 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.94 FPts
5. Henry Davis: 4.09 PA, 0.92 H, 1.61 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.65 FPts
6. Jared Triolo: 3.98 PA, 0.79 H, 1.16 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.87 FPts
7. Tucupita Marcano: 3.77 PA, 0.83 H, 1.28 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.73 FPts
8. Nick Gonzales: 3.74 PA, 0.72 H, 1.25 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.73 FPts
9. Austin Hedges: 3.26 PA, 0.58 H, 0.81 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.01 SB, 3.67 FPts
Best Bets
Myles Straw CLE - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-180.0) - 0.111 value
Tyler Freeman CLE - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-155.0) - 0.106 value
Rich Hill PIT - Outs Under 17.5 (+105.0) - 0.095 value
Rich Hill PIT - Walks Under 2.5 (-145.0) - 0.09 value
Aaron Civale CLE - Outs Under 17.5 (-105.0) - 0.089 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
LAD @ BAL
Projected Game Score:
LAD 4.22 - BAL 3.76
LAD 52.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 7.98
2023 Pitcher Stats
Julio Urias: 13 GS, 1118 Pitches, 24.0 K%, 5.2 BB%, 11.6 SwStr%, 49.7 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%, 36.9 GB%, 10 Brl%
Dean Kremer: 19 GS, 1745 Pitches, 22.7 K%, 6.1 BB%, 11.9 SwStr%, 45.5 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%, 35.6 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Julio Urias (LAD): 88 Pitches 5.75 IP, 5.3 H, 2.5 ER, 6.0 K, 1.3 BB, 16.74 FPts
Dean Kremer (BAL): 95 Pitches 5.6 IP, 5.8 H, 2.9 ER, 4.5 K, 2.0 BB, 11.64 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Julio Urias - 4.5 strikeouts
Dean Kremer - 4.5 strikeouts
LAD Hitter Projections
1. Mookie Betts: 4.37 PA, 1.05 H, 1.95 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.99 FPts
2. Freddie Freeman: 4.29 PA, 1.17 H, 1.97 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.08 SB, 9.24 FPts
3. Max Muncy: 4.18 PA, 0.76 H, 1.57 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.74 FPts
4. Will Smith: 4.14 PA, 0.93 H, 1.54 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.31 FPts
5. David Peralta: 3.84 PA, 0.95 H, 1.53 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.68 FPts
6. Jason Heyward: 3.62 PA, 0.79 H, 1.37 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.17 FPts
7. James Outman: 3.74 PA, 0.75 H, 1.29 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.32 FPts
8. Miguel Rojas: 3.59 PA, 0.83 H, 1.15 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.54 FPts
9. Austin Barnes: 3.34 PA, 0.6 H, 0.91 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.04 SB, 4.51 FPts
BAL Hitter Projections
1. Austin Hays: 4.46 PA, 1.04 H, 1.72 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.2 FPts
2. Anthony Santander: 4.42 PA, 1.02 H, 1.9 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.97 FPts
3. Ryan Mountcastle: 4.29 PA, 1.0 H, 1.82 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.44 FPts
4. Aaron Hicks: 4.15 PA, 0.81 H, 1.26 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.28 FPts
5. Jordan Westburg: 4.11 PA, 0.95 H, 1.64 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.09 FPts
6. Gunnar Henderson: 3.94 PA, 0.79 H, 1.32 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.25 FPts
7. Ramon Urias: 3.84 PA, 0.84 H, 1.36 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.8 FPts
8. James McCann: 3.55 PA, 0.76 H, 1.23 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.26 FPts
9. Jorge Mateo: 3.43 PA, 0.71 H, 1.14 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.25 SB, 6.08 FPts
Best Bets
Miguel Rojas LAD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-165.0) - 0.134 value
Julio Urias LAD - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (-170.0) - 0.088 value
David Peralta LAD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-125.0) - 0.083 value
Max Muncy LAD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-150.0) - 0.068 value
Will Smith LAD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-140.0) - 0.068 value
Gunnar Henderson BAL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-195.0) - 0.06 value
Jason Heyward LAD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-180.0) - 0.058 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 1B $6100: 9.24 Proj, 1.15 Score
Mookie Betts (LAD) 2B/OF $6300: 8.99 Proj, 1.14 Score
Max Muncy (LAD) 3B $4500: 7.74 Proj, 1.05 Score
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 1B $4100: 7.44 Proj, 0.99 Score
Will Smith (LAD) C $5500: 7.31 Proj, 0.96 Score
TB @ TEX
Projected Game Score:
TEX 4.5 - TB 4.2
TEX 51.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 8.7
2023 Pitcher Stats
Jon Gray: 17 GS, 1471 Pitches, 19.8 K%, 8.0 BB%, 12.4 SwStr%, 46.6 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%, 41.1 GB%, 6 Brl%
Zack Littell: 2 GS, 328 Pitches, 22.1 K%, 4.7 BB%, 11.6 SwStr%, 51.2 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%, 42.9 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Jon Gray (TEX): 93 Pitches 6.25 IP, 5.7 H, 2.9 ER, 6.1 K, 2.0 BB, 16.4 FPts
Zack Littell (TB): 35 Pitches 2.36 IP, 2.3 H, 1.2 ER, 2.1 K, 0.9 BB, 5.97 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Jon Gray - 5.5 strikeouts
Zack Littell - Prop Not Found
TB Hitter Projections
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.43 PA, 1.1 H, 1.7 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.17 FPts
2. Luke Raley: 4.23 PA, 0.94 H, 1.76 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.94 FPts
3. Isaac Paredes: 4.16 PA, 0.83 H, 1.42 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.7 FPts
4. Brandon Lowe: 4.1 PA, 0.83 H, 1.56 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.54 FPts
5. Jose Siri: 4.04 PA, 0.81 H, 1.51 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.17 FPts
6. Josh Lowe: 3.88 PA, 0.89 H, 1.51 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.17 SB, 7.41 FPts
7. Manuel Margot: 3.82 PA, 0.92 H, 1.4 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.62 FPts
8. Taylor Walls: 3.68 PA, 0.63 H, 1.0 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.15 SB, 5.92 FPts
9. Christian Bethancourt: 3.38 PA, 0.78 H, 1.3 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.29 FPts
TEX Hitter Projections
1. Marcus Semien: 4.52 PA, 1.02 H, 1.73 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.47 FPts
2. Corey Seager: 4.42 PA, 1.16 H, 2.16 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.39 FPts
3. Nathaniel Lowe: 4.32 PA, 1.03 H, 1.63 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.64 FPts
4. Adolis Garcia: 4.23 PA, 0.93 H, 1.79 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.6 FPts
5. Josh Jung: 4.08 PA, 0.86 H, 1.54 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.69 FPts
6. Jonah Heim: 4.03 PA, 0.89 H, 1.52 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.83 FPts
7. Travis Jankowski: 3.76 PA, 0.81 H, 1.04 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.2 SB, 6.62 FPts
8. Robbie Grossman: 3.71 PA, 0.67 H, 1.08 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.92 FPts
9. Leody Taveras: 3.5 PA, 0.84 H, 1.29 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.24 FPts
Best Bets
Jon Gray TEX - Walks Over 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.087 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Corey Seager (TEX) SS $6200: 9.39 Proj, 1.11 Score
Adolis Garcia (TEX) OF $5300: 8.6 Proj, 1.1 Score
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX) 1B $3700: 7.64 Proj, 1.09 Score
Marcus Semien (TEX) 2B $5800: 8.47 Proj, 1.08 Score
Brandon Lowe (TB) 2B $4300: 7.54 Proj, 1.05 Score
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