DFS & Betting Game Previews - July 24th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Couldn’t pull of a previews post over the weekend - it was a busy one! But it’s Monday and we’re back, let’s have at it!
The props have turned for the worse. The outs props are just a disaster so far (less than a week in so far so can’t draw any conclusions - but I wouldn’t be betting them - not solely based on my algo at least). The K and BB props have gone a bit cold over the past few days - but we’ll keep tracking and I’m giving the recommended bets along with a full DFS player pool at the bottom.
Slate Preview 7/24/2023
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
TOR (vs. Michael Grove): 77.65 Projected Points
STL (vs. Ryne Nelson): 73.38 Projected Points
BAL (vs. Cristopher Sanchez): 71.87 Projected Points
CIN (vs. Colin Rea): 70.03 Projected Points
PHI (vs. Dean Kremer): 69.93 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
DET (vs. Ross Stripling): 51.67 Projected Points
MIN (vs. Luis Castillo): 56.89 Projected Points
SF (vs. Tarik Skubal): 56.95 Projected Points
WSH (vs. Jake Bird): 59.6 Projected Points
PIT (vs. Yu Darvish): 60.75 Projected Points
Today Max Projection Players
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Jake Cave: 6.62 Today, 6.54 Previous Max
George Springer: 9.78 Today, 9.77 Previous Max
Kevin Kiermaier: 6.61 Today, 6.59 Previous Max
Game by Game Previews
BAL @ PHI
Projected Game Score:
BAL 5.22 - PHI 4.88
BAL 51.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 10.1
2023 Pitcher Stats
Dean Kremer: 20 GS, 1836 Pitches, 21.8 K%, 6.7 BB%, 11.5 SwStr%, 45.2 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%, 36.5 GB%, 10 Brl%
Cristopher Sanchez: 7 GS, 536 Pitches, 21.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 10.8 SwStr%, 48.1 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%, 54.8 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Dean Kremer (BAL): 94 Pitches 5.54 IP, 6.0 H, 3.0 ER, 4.9 K, 1.7 BB, 12.39 FPts
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 85 Pitches 5.11 IP, 5.4 H, 2.7 ER, 4.6 K, 1.7 BB, 11.65 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Dean Kremer - 5.5 strikeouts
Cristopher Sanchez - 4.5 strikeouts
BAL Hitter Projections
1. Austin Hays: 4.65 PA, 1.13 H, 1.94 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.58 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.6 PA, 1.07 H, 1.82 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.12 FPts
3. Anthony Santander: 4.5 PA, 1.03 H, 1.95 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.97 FPts
4. Ryan Mountcastle: 4.37 PA, 1.09 H, 2.06 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.04 SB, 9.06 FPts
5. Aaron Hicks: 4.21 PA, 0.87 H, 1.39 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.37 FPts
6. Jordan Westburg: 4.17 PA, 1.0 H, 1.79 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.07 FPts
7. Ramon Urias: 3.99 PA, 0.9 H, 1.5 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.89 FPts
8. James McCann: 3.7 PA, 0.83 H, 1.38 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.25 FPts
9. Jorge Mateo: 3.56 PA, 0.79 H, 1.31 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.29 SB, 7.56 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.5 PA, 0.96 H, 2.2 TB, 0.34 HR, 0.04 SB, 10.3 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.34 PA, 1.09 H, 1.79 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.79 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.22 PA, 1.08 H, 1.94 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.59 FPts
4. Nick Castellanos: 4.15 PA, 1.04 H, 1.78 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.9 FPts
5. Bryson Stott: 4.01 PA, 1.03 H, 1.58 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.55 FPts
6. Josh Harrison: 3.87 PA, 0.97 H, 1.5 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.61 FPts
7. Jake Cave: 3.71 PA, 0.82 H, 1.48 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.62 FPts
8. Garrett Stubbs: 3.55 PA, 0.72 H, 1.07 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.27 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.48 PA, 0.88 H, 1.5 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.3 FPts
Best Bets
Adley Rutschman BAL - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+110.0) - 0.056 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
COL @ WSH
Projected Game Score:
COL 4.18 - WSH 3.72
COL 52.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 7.9
2023 Pitcher Stats
Patrick Corbin: 20 GS, 1854 Pitches, 15.7 K%, 6.7 BB%, 9.3 SwStr%, 41.7 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%, 45.9 GB%, 8 Brl%
Jake Bird: 2 GS, 905 Pitches, 21.9 K%, 7.7 BB%, 9.7 SwStr%, 45.6 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%, 54.1 GB%, 7 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Patrick Corbin (WSH): 94 Pitches 5.6 IP, 6.8 H, 3.0 ER, 4.2 K, 1.4 BB, 10.9 FPts
Jake Bird (COL): 22 Pitches 1.59 IP, 1.8 H, 0.8 ER, 1.2 K, 0.4 BB, 3.62 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Patrick Corbin - Prop Not Found
Jake Bird - Prop Not Found
COL Hitter Projections
1. Jurickson Profar: 4.29 PA, 1.01 H, 1.54 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.32 FPts
2. Kris Bryant: 4.16 PA, 0.97 H, 1.59 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.23 FPts
3. Ryan McMahon: 4.12 PA, 0.97 H, 1.64 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.62 FPts
4. C.J. Cron: 4.0 PA, 1.03 H, 2.01 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.0 SB, 8.35 FPts
5. Elias Diaz: 3.93 PA, 0.99 H, 1.7 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.2 FPts
6. Randal Grichuk: 3.82 PA, 1.02 H, 1.74 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.17 FPts
7. Ezequiel Tovar: 3.69 PA, 0.97 H, 1.61 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.76 FPts
8. Alan Trejo: 3.49 PA, 0.9 H, 1.39 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.77 FPts
9. Brenton Doyle: 3.28 PA, 0.7 H, 1.3 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.0 FPts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. C.J. Abrams: 4.42 PA, 1.07 H, 1.64 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.18 SB, 7.66 FPts
2. Lane Thomas: 4.35 PA, 1.02 H, 1.74 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.82 FPts
3. Jeimer Candelario: 4.23 PA, 0.95 H, 1.61 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.04 FPts
4. Joey Meneses: 4.16 PA, 1.05 H, 1.64 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.91 FPts
5. Keibert Ruiz: 4.06 PA, 1.05 H, 1.67 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.24 FPts
6. Dominic Smith: 3.96 PA, 0.91 H, 1.29 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.82 FPts
7. Corey Dickerson: 3.63 PA, 0.9 H, 1.3 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.65 FPts
8. Luis Garcia: 3.71 PA, 0.96 H, 1.43 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.09 FPts
9. Alex Call: 3.43 PA, 0.67 H, 1.03 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.37 FPts
Best Bets
Patrick Corbin WSH - Outs Under 17.5 (+125.0) - 0.139 value
Patrick Corbin WSH - Walks Under 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.082 value
Kris Bryant COL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.055 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
C.J. Cron (COL) 1B $4400: 8.35 Proj, 1.18 Score
Randal Grichuk (COL) OF $3600: 7.17 Proj, 1.06 Score
Keibert Ruiz (WSH) C $3800: 7.24 Proj, 1.03 Score
C.J. Abrams (WSH) SS $3600: 7.66 Proj, 1.03 Score
Jurickson Profar (COL) OF $3700: 7.32 Proj, 1.02 Score
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