MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

DFS & Betting Game Previews - June 26th

An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.

Jon A's avatar
Jon A
Jun 26, 2023
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Just seven games on the board today and we have two with weather problems (Reds at Orioles, Brewers at Mets). That means this will be a pretty short preview post, but here we go!


DFS Preview


SP

It’s going to be a Spencer Strider $12,600 chalk night for sure, but we probably should eat it. He is projected for 29.9 points in my model which is absurd. The next highest is Dylan Cease $7,700 at 19.2, and then Luis Castillo $9,400 is the next closest at 18.

You also have decent cheaper options like Justin Verlander $8,300 against the Brewers and Reid Detmers $7,300 against the White Sox.

I think the cash duo is clearly Strider + Cease. Maybe the ownership won’t be as high on Strider given his recent lack of blowing people away in the box score and the huge price tag on him, but again it’s a short slate so most people will probably be clicking on him. I think he’s just as good as a GPP play because there will be some lower ownership there and if he pulls out a 35+ point day you’re going to be way ahead.

Offenses

The top offense tonight is probably the Orioles against Williamson. This guy has not been impressive in the Majors and the Orioles are a more than capable offensive unit. You can also make the case for the Rangers against Boyd (you can always make this case), the Braves against Sonny Gray, and the Mariners against Trevor Williams.

Catchers

  1. Rutschman $5,400

  2. Garver $4,000

  3. Haase $3,000

First Base

  1. Ohtani $6,400

  2. Vogelbach $2,200

  3. Urias $2,900

  4. Alonso $5,300

Second Base

  1. Ibanez $2,500

  2. Anderson $3,800

  3. Short $2,400

Third Base

  1. Urias $2,900

  2. Burger $3,900

  3. Jung $4,700

Shortstop

  1. Westburg $2,000

  2. Lindor $4,700

  3. Anderson $3,800

Outfield

  1. Acuna Jr. $6,500

  2. Hernandez $3,700

  3. Ibanez $2,500

  4. Marte $3,900

  5. Ohtani $6,400

  6. Rodriguez $5,200

  7. Santander $4,400

  8. Hays $3,800

  9. Robert $4,900

  10. Hicks $2,600

  11. Trout $6,300

  12. Garcia $5,700


Most Team Fantasy Point Projections

BAL (vs. Brandon Williamson): 71.84 Projected Points
TEX (vs. Matthew Boyd): 71.68 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Sonny Gray): 71.62 Projected Points
SEA (vs. Trevor Williams): 67.83 Projected Points
NYM (vs. Colin Rea): 67.47 Projected Points

Least Team Fantasy Point Projections

WSH (vs. Luis Castillo): 54.2 Projected Points
MIL (vs. Justin Verlander): 56.67 Projected Points
MIN (vs. Spencer Strider): 58.71 Projected Points
DET (vs. Andrew Heaney): 60.27 Projected Points
LAA (vs. Dylan Cease): 61.28 Projected Points

Today Max Projection Players

Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Spencer Strider: 29.95 Today, 29.42 Previous Max
Anthony Santander: 9.19 Today, 9.15 Previous Max
Adley Rutschman: 9.16 Today, 9.16 Previous Max
Adolis Garcia: 9.08 Today, 9.06 Previous Max
Austin Hays: 8.74 Today, 8.47 Previous Max
Josh Jung: 8.32 Today, 8.1 Previous Max
Andy Ibanez: 8.0 Today, 7.67 Previous Max
Jorge Mateo: 7.91 Today, 7.83 Previous Max
Zack Short: 6.99 Today, 6.76 Previous Max

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Game by Game Previews


CIN @ BAL

Projected Game Score:

BAL 5.46 - CIN 4.32
BAL 55.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 10.0
Projected Total: 9.78

2023 Pitcher Stats

Brandon Williamson: 7 GS, 587 Pitches, 17.0 K%, 8.2 BB%, 11.4 SwStr%, 43.6 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%, 33.1 GB%, 14 Brl%
Cole Irvin: 5 GS, 442 Pitches, 21.6 K%, 9.0 BB%, 10.4 SwStr%, 49.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%, 30.3 GB%, 14 Brl%

Pitcher Projections

Brandon Williamson (CIN): 89 Pitches 5.54 IP, 6.0 H, 3.2 ER, 5.0 K, 2.2 BB, 11.61 FPts
Cole Irvin (BAL): 65 Pitches 3.89 IP, 4.3 H, 2.0 ER, 2.8 K, 1.0 BB, 7.92 FPts

K Prop Lines - DraftKings

Brandon Williamson - 3.5 strikeouts
Cole Irvin - 3.5 strikeouts

CIN Hitter Projections

1. Kevin Newman: 4.25 PA, 1.16 H, 1.64 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.41 FPts
2. Matt McLain: 4.18 PA, 1.08 H, 1.95 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.12 SB, 9.09 FPts
3. Jonathan India: 4.0 PA, 0.95 H, 1.5 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.27 FPts
4. Elly De La Cruz: 4.0 PA, 0.89 H, 1.65 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.15 SB, 8.1 FPts
5. Spencer Steer: 3.9 PA, 0.9 H, 1.45 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.88 FPts
6. Joey Votto: 3.78 PA, 0.83 H, 1.48 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.78 FPts
7. Nick Senzel: 3.62 PA, 0.86 H, 1.25 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.97 FPts
8. TJ Friedl: 3.48 PA, 0.87 H, 1.24 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.25 FPts
9. Luke Maile: 3.15 PA, 0.72 H, 1.2 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.29 FPts

BAL Hitter Projections

1. Austin Hays: 4.47 PA, 1.12 H, 2.0 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.74 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.4 PA, 1.0 H, 1.74 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.16 FPts
3. Anthony Santander: 4.33 PA, 1.02 H, 2.0 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.19 FPts
4. Gunnar Henderson: 4.14 PA, 0.87 H, 1.55 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.09 SB, 8.43 FPts
5. Ramon Urias: 4.07 PA, 0.94 H, 1.61 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.59 FPts
6. Aaron Hicks: 3.94 PA, 0.81 H, 1.35 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.39 FPts
7. Jordan Westburg: 3.88 PA, 0.95 H, 1.74 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.06 FPts
8. Jorge Mateo: 3.67 PA, 0.83 H, 1.42 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.3 SB, 7.91 FPts
9. Ryan McKenna: 3.25 PA, 0.65 H, 1.1 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.37 FPts

Best Bets

Cole Irvin BAL - Strikeouts Under 3.5 (+120.0) - 0.23 value
Brandon Williamson CIN - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-150.0) - 0.131 value
Nick Senzel CIN - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-165.0) - 0.104 value
Spencer Steer CIN - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.095 value
Cole Irvin BAL - ER Allowed Under 2.5 (-110.0) - 0.078 value
Elly De La Cruz CIN - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.069 value
Aaron Hicks BAL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-195.0) - 0.06 value

DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)

Jordan Westburg (BAL) SS $2000: 8.06 Proj, 1.41 Score
Anthony Santander (BAL) OF $4400: 9.19 Proj, 1.26 Score
Austin Hays (BAL) OF $3800: 8.74 Proj, 1.23 Score
Aaron Hicks (BAL) OF $2600: 7.39 Proj, 1.19 Score
Ramon Urias (BAL) 1B/3B $2900: 7.59 Proj, 1.17 Score

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