This morning, I wrote that I am hanging up my keyboard at RotoBaller, so this is the only place I will write about baseball. Because of that, I have some more time to get into DFS slates right here, so I want to start that up TONIGHT!
The normal game-by-game previews are unchanged below, but sometimes I’ll spend some more words/time up here talking about the slate in my own words.
I haven’t looked at the lineup scores tab of the pitcher projections in a long time, kind of forgot that even exists! Let’s take a look:
Not many people are going to overlook that the Yankees lineup is bad without Judge, but it’s interesting to see it being the sixth-worst projected lineup on the board tonight.
There’s a clear top two and a clear top four on the raw projections:
If we are drafting just based on the projections, the cash duo is pretty clear - Ohtani + Darvish/Wells. The projections would say to go with Darvish, but I get that some people will be scared away by Coors. The projections take Coors into account, of course, and to an extent - so does the price. You can roll the dice with Darvish, but any thought about the Rockies not being very good at homes this year should be stopped, they have slashed .282/.340/.456 at home.
I am probably leaning toward the Ohtani + Wells combo in my single bullet lineup.
The cheap guys to consider:
Garrett Whitlock vs. Yankees (18.9% K%, 4.7% BB%)
Michael Grove vs. Phillies (22.3% K%, 7.4% BB%)
Logan Allen vs. Astros (no Yordan)
One lineup: Ohtani + Wells
GPP pool: Ohtani, Cole, Cease, Kikuchi, Whitlock, Wells
The Padres get the obvious top spot here in Coors
Vegas has them for 6.71 runs. The JA model has them slightly under that, and it has them under the Braves in terms of team fantasy point scoring. In terms of the top-5 in the lineup stacks, the Padres take the cake there:
Everything I’m showing here is available to paid subs on the various Google Sheets and dashboards.
Lower-owned offenses to stack:
Considering projection, price, and ceiling
Catcher
Ryan Jeffers $2,700
Gary Sanchez $3,900
Shea Langeliers $2,500
Sean Murphy $4,300
First Base
Second Base
Jace Peterson $2,200
Jose Altuve $4,600
Brendan Donovan $3,000
Mookie Betts $6,200
Luis Arraez $5,100
Ozzie Albies $4,400
Shortstop
Carlos Correa $4,400
Ha-Seong Kim $4,200
Bo Bichette $5,300
Matt McLain $4,500
Third Base
Austin Riley $4,800
Manny Machado $5,200
Ha-Seong Kim $4,200
Ryan McMahon $5,100
Donovan Solano $2,200
Jace Peterson $2,200
Kyle Farmer $2,900
Outfield
Okay, now we will move on to the game previews! You all got the DFS preview for free there, but most of the game previews will be behind the wall.
PHI (vs. Michael Grove): 135.02 Projected Points
LAD (vs. Ranger Suarez): 124.87 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Josiah Gray): 78.32 Projected Points
SD (vs. Austin Gomber): 75.68 Projected Points
BAL (vs. Daniel Lynch): 70.45 Projected Points
DET (vs. Merrill Kelly): 50.03 Projected Points
NYY (vs. Garrett Whitlock): 58.18 Projected Points
LAA (vs. Luis Castillo): 58.71 Projected Points
SF (vs. Marcus Stroman): 59.32 Projected Points
BOS (vs. Gerrit Cole): 59.39 Projected Points
Players with their highest projection of the season coming today
Merrill Kelly: 21.22 Today, 18.4 Previous Max
Adrian Houser: 12.99 Today, 10.57 Previous Max
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 11.81 Today, 11.32 Previous Max
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 11.32 Today, 11.08 Previous Max
Matt Olson: 10.53 Today, 9.9 Previous Max
Esteury Ruiz: 8.96 Today, 8.92 Previous Max
Ha-Seong Kim: 8.88 Today, 7.79 Previous Max
Carlos Correa: 8.77 Today, 8.53 Previous Max
Sean Murphy: 8.52 Today, 8.36 Previous Max
Ramon Laureano: 8.49 Today, 8.15 Previous Max
Austin Hays: 8.45 Today, 8.0 Previous Max
Donovan Solano: 8.21 Today, 7.91 Previous Max
Eddie Rosario: 8.12 Today, 7.82 Previous Max
Willi Castro: 8.06 Today, 6.97 Previous Max
Jace Peterson: 7.92 Today, 7.77 Previous Max
Ryan Noda: 7.54 Today, 7.34 Previous Max
Aaron Hicks: 7.53 Today, 7.19 Previous Max
Marcell Ozuna: 7.51 Today, 7.28 Previous Max
Orlando Arcia: 7.46 Today, 7.03 Previous Max
Ryan Jeffers: 7.23 Today, 7.15 Previous Max
Austin Nola: 6.48 Today, 6.16 Previous Max
ARI 3.86 - DET 2.94
ARI 56.8% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 6.8
Merrill Kelly: 12 GS, 1129 Pitches, 27.6 K%, 10.0 BB%, 13.1 SwStr%, 48.6 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%, 49.4 GB%, 7 Brl%
Michael Lorenzen: 9 GS, 805 Pitches, 19.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 10.7 SwStr%, 49.1 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%, 46.1 GB%, 9 Brl%
Merrill Kelly (ARI): 99 Pitches 6.47 IP, 5.0 H, 2.5 ER, 7.6 K, 2.3 BB, 21.22 FPts
Michael Lorenzen (DET): 90 Pitches 5.52 IP, 5.0 H, 2.4 ER, 4.3 K, 2.0 BB, 12.46 FPts
Merrill Kelly - 5.5 strikeouts
Michael Lorenzen - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Pavin Smith: 4.28 PA, 0.97 H, 1.59 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.09 FPts
2. Ketel Marte: 4.29 PA, 1.03 H, 1.62 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.46 FPts
3. Corbin Carroll: 4.19 PA, 1.02 H, 1.68 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.22 SB, 8.83 FPts
4. Christian Walker: 4.08 PA, 0.89 H, 1.56 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.99 FPts
5. Emmanuel Rivera: 3.87 PA, 0.93 H, 1.48 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.36 FPts
6. Josh Rojas: 3.83 PA, 0.89 H, 1.28 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.75 FPts
7. Jake McCarthy: 3.78 PA, 0.89 H, 1.28 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.21 SB, 6.92 FPts
8. Geraldo Perdomo: 3.57 PA, 0.69 H, 0.95 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.23 FPts
9. Jose Herrera: 3.18 PA, 0.6 H, 0.78 TB, 0.02 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.1 FPts
1. Zach McKinstry: 4.2 PA, 0.85 H, 1.39 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.86 FPts
2. Javier Baez: 4.13 PA, 0.82 H, 1.28 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.79 FPts
3. Spencer Torkelson: 4.12 PA, 0.8 H, 1.35 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.17 FPts
4. Nick Maton: 3.82 PA, 0.63 H, 1.02 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.45 FPts
5. Akil Baddoo: 3.71 PA, 0.69 H, 0.97 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.17 SB, 5.92 FPts
6. Andy Ibanez: 3.65 PA, 0.87 H, 1.43 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.85 FPts
7. Miguel Cabrera: 3.67 PA, 0.74 H, 1.1 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.78 FPts
8. Jake Rogers: 3.49 PA, 0.61 H, 1.1 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.12 FPts
9. Jake Marisnick: 3.07 PA, 0.54 H, 0.87 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.07 SB, 4.09 FPts
Merrill Kelly ARI - Strikeouts Over 5.5 (-175.0) - 0.132 value
Javier Baez DET - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-180.0) - 0.083 value
Emmanuel Rivera ARI - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-150.0) - 0.057 value
Christian Walker ARI - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-150.0) - 0.052 value
Game not on slate
TB 5.03 - TEX 4.7
TB 51.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 9.73
Tyler Glasnow: 1 GS, 171 Pitches, 33.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 17.0 SwStr%, 49.7 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%, 50.0 GB%, 21 Brl%
Andrew Heaney: 11 GS, 995 Pitches, 24.5 K%, 10.2 BB%, 12.5 SwStr%, 45.0 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%, 43.9 GB%, 10 Brl%
Tyler Glasnow (TB): 87 Pitches 5.7 IP, 4.5 H, 2.3 ER, 8.1 K, 1.7 BB, 21.6 FPts
Andrew Heaney (TEX): 92 Pitches 5.74 IP, 5.3 H, 2.8 ER, 5.7 K, 2.0 BB, 14.66 FPts
Tyler Glasnow - 7.5 strikeouts
Andrew Heaney - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Marcus Semien: 4.67 PA, 0.99 H, 1.71 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.14 SB, 8.38 FPts
2. Corey Seager: 4.56 PA, 1.11 H, 2.07 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.37 FPts
3. Nathaniel Lowe: 4.46 PA, 0.98 H, 1.64 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.97 FPts
4. Adolis Garcia: 4.37 PA, 0.89 H, 1.69 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.03 FPts
5. Josh Jung: 4.21 PA, 0.83 H, 1.51 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.69 FPts
6. Jonah Heim: 4.16 PA, 0.85 H, 1.49 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.79 FPts
7. Mitch Garver: 4.06 PA, 0.7 H, 1.42 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.81 FPts
8. Ezequiel Duran: 3.81 PA, 0.82 H, 1.36 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.2 FPts
9. Leody Taveras: 3.6 PA, 0.74 H, 1.15 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.76 FPts
1. Yandy Diaz: 4.61 PA, 1.14 H, 1.84 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 8.95 FPts
2. Wander Franco: 4.48 PA, 1.18 H, 1.86 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.16 SB, 9.3 FPts
3. Harold Ramirez: 4.39 PA, 1.11 H, 1.68 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.58 FPts
4. Randy Arozarena: 4.36 PA, 0.97 H, 1.8 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.17 SB, 9.33 FPts
5. Isaac Paredes: 4.14 PA, 0.81 H, 1.36 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.73 FPts
6. Jose Siri: 4.1 PA, 0.76 H, 1.38 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.98 FPts
7. Christian Bethancourt: 3.93 PA, 0.91 H, 1.69 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.04 FPts
8. Manuel Margot: 3.84 PA, 0.92 H, 1.41 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.12 SB, 7.13 FPts
9. Taylor Walls: 3.58 PA, 0.61 H, 0.99 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.15 SB, 6.2 FPts
Corey Seager TEX - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+125.0) - 0.098 value
TEX - MoneyLine (+150.0) - 0.083 value
Nathaniel Lowe TEX - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+165.0) - 0.08 value
Andrew Heaney TEX - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (-150.0) - 0.074 value
Corey Seager TEX - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+125.0) - 0.066 value
Tyler Glasnow TB - ER Allowed Over 1.5 (-135.0) - 0.052 value
Game not on slate
BAL 5.28 - KC 4.76
BAL 52.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 10.04
Tyler Wells: 11 GS, 1095 Pitches, 26.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 13.3 SwStr%, 47.6 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%, 33.7 GB%, 11 Brl%
Daniel Lynch: 2 GS, 192 Pitches, 27.1 K%, 8.3 BB%, 14.6 SwStr%, 47.9 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%, 30.0 GB%, 0 Brl%
Tyler Wells (BAL): 99 Pitches 6.21 IP, 5.8 H, 2.8 ER, 6.3 K, 1.6 BB, 17.43 FPts
Daniel Lynch (KC): 93 Pitches 5.59 IP, 5.8 H, 3.0 ER, 4.8 K, 2.2 BB, 11.95 FPts
Tyler Wells - 5.5 strikeouts
Daniel Lynch - 4.5 strikeouts
1. Nick Pratto: 4.37 PA, 0.87 H, 1.58 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.47 FPts
2. Vinnie Pasquantino: 4.33 PA, 1.15 H, 2.02 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.07 FPts
3. Salvador Perez: 4.21 PA, 1.01 H, 1.91 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.67 FPts
4. MJ Melendez: 4.14 PA, 0.89 H, 1.69 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.92 FPts
5. Bobby Witt Jr.: 4.02 PA, 0.94 H, 1.68 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.0 FPts
6. Nicky Lopez: 3.87 PA, 0.92 H, 1.26 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.5 FPts
7. Michael Massey: 3.75 PA, 0.88 H, 1.64 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.01 FPts
8. Maikel Garcia: 3.69 PA, 0.82 H, 1.36 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.12 SB, 6.97 FPts
9. Drew Waters: 3.45 PA, 0.72 H, 1.24 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.16 FPts
1. Austin Hays: 4.47 PA, 1.11 H, 1.9 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.45 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.43 PA, 1.02 H, 1.69 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.0 FPts
3. Anthony Santander: 4.33 PA, 1.05 H, 2.01 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.07 FPts
4. Ryan Mountcastle: 4.21 PA, 1.06 H, 1.99 TB, 0.23 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.94 FPts
5. Aaron Hicks: 4.05 PA, 0.86 H, 1.37 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.53 FPts
6. Ramon Urias: 3.98 PA, 0.94 H, 1.54 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.21 FPts
7. James McCann: 3.69 PA, 0.82 H, 1.34 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.21 FPts
8. Gunnar Henderson: 3.7 PA, 0.73 H, 1.26 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 6.97 FPts
9. Jorge Mateo: 3.45 PA, 0.76 H, 1.24 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.28 SB, 7.07 FPts
Nick Pratto KC - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+150.0) - 0.088 value
KC - MoneyLine (+154.0) - 0.08 value
Vinnie Pasquantino KC - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+120.0) - 0.077 value
Michael Massey KC - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+200.0) - 0.072 value
Austin Hays BAL - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+115.0) - 0.067 value
Drew Waters KC - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+210.0) - 0.064 value
Vinnie Pasquantino KC - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+130.0) - 0.055 value
Nicky Lopez KC - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (+230.0) - 0.053 value
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 1B $3500: 9.07 Proj, 1.14 Score
Michael Massey (KC) 2B $2300: 7.01 Proj, 1.14 Score
MJ Melendez (KC) OF $3100: 7.92 Proj, 1.12 Score
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 1B $4500: 8.94 Proj, 1.11 Score
Nicky Lopez (KC) 2B/3B $2000: 6.5 Proj, 1.1 Score
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