DFS & Betting Game Previews - May 25th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Missed the start time on the early games but wanted to get this out anyways - plenty of good afternoon/night action tonight, here’s the rundown:
Game Previews 5/25/2023
STL @ CIN
Projected Game Score:
STL 5.38 - CIN 4.42
STL 54.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 9.8
2023 Pitcher Stats
Miles Mikolas: 10 GS, 954 Pitches, 17.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 7.9 SwStr%, 47.4 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%, 38.0 GB%, 9 Brl%
Luke Weaver: 6 GS, 532 Pitches, 22.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 11.7 SwStr%, 46.4 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%, 43.0 GB%, 14 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Miles Mikolas (STL): 97 Pitches 5.78 IP, 6.2 H, 2.8 ER, 4.7 K, 1.6 BB, 12.61 FPts
Luke Weaver (CIN): 85 Pitches 5.1 IP, 5.4 H, 2.8 ER, 4.6 K, 1.7 BB, 11.33 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Miles Mikolas - 4.5 strikeouts
Luke Weaver - 4.5 strikeouts
STL Hitter Projections
1. Lars Nootbaar: 4.51 PA, 0.95 H, 1.73 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.08 SB, 9.09 FPts
2. Nolan Gorman: 4.48 PA, 1.08 H, 2.34 TB, 0.34 HR, 0.04 SB, 10.55 FPts
3. Brendan Donovan: 4.38 PA, 1.06 H, 1.65 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.64 FPts
4. Paul DeJong: 4.35 PA, 0.86 H, 1.73 TB, 0.22 HR, 0.05 SB, 8.22 FPts
5. Alec Burleson: 3.99 PA, 0.93 H, 1.65 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.48 FPts
6. Juan Yepez: 4.05 PA, 0.9 H, 1.64 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.05 FPts
7. Tommy Edman: 4.01 PA, 0.99 H, 1.58 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.21 FPts
8. Andrew Knizner: 3.68 PA, 0.73 H, 1.18 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.64 FPts
9. Oscar Mercado: 3.4 PA, 0.73 H, 1.21 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.09 FPts
CIN Hitter Projections
1. TJ Friedl: 4.34 PA, 1.09 H, 1.66 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.78 FPts
2. Matt McLain: 4.33 PA, 0.91 H, 1.66 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.31 FPts
3. Jonathan India: 4.13 PA, 0.96 H, 1.5 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.39 FPts
4. Jake Fraley: 4.09 PA, 0.88 H, 1.52 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.19 FPts
5. Tyler Stephenson: 3.91 PA, 1.01 H, 1.61 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.17 FPts
6. Spencer Steer: 3.94 PA, 0.88 H, 1.48 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.7 FPts
7. Nick Senzel: 3.76 PA, 0.94 H, 1.42 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.56 FPts
8. Stuart Fairchild: 3.42 PA, 0.72 H, 1.22 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.84 FPts
9. Luke Maile: 3.25 PA, 0.75 H, 1.26 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.5 FPts
Best Bets
Nolan Gorman STL - Runs Scored Over 0.5 (-110.0) - 0.073 value
Nolan Gorman STL - Total Bases Over 1.5 (+115.0) - 0.071 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Nolan Gorman (STL) 2B/3B $4500: 10.55 Proj, 1.48 Score
Brendan Donovan (STL) 1B/OF $2700: 8.64 Proj, 1.38 Score
Lars Nootbaar (STL) OF $4100: 9.09 Proj, 1.26 Score
Paul DeJong (STL) SS $3200: 8.22 Proj, 1.24 Score
Tommy Edman (STL) 2B/OF $3800: 8.21 Proj, 1.17 Score
TOR @ TB
Projected Game Score:
TB 4.56 - TOR 4.36
TB 51.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 8.92
2023 Pitcher Stats
Zach Eflin: 8 GS, 644 Pitches, 28.4 K%, 2.7 BB%, 12.9 SwStr%, 50.2 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%, 49.6 GB%, 12 Brl%
Alek Manoah: 10 GS, 937 Pitches, 17.0 K%, 13.2 BB%, 9.2 SwStr%, 43.6 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%, 40.3 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Zach Eflin (TB): 82 Pitches 4.9 IP, 5.1 H, 2.4 ER, 4.7 K, 1.0 BB, 12.85 FPts
Alek Manoah (TOR): 94 Pitches 5.72 IP, 5.4 H, 3.0 ER, 4.6 K, 2.6 BB, 11.37 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Zach Eflin - 4.5 strikeouts
Alek Manoah - 5.5 strikeouts
TOR Hitter Projections
1. Bo Bichette: 4.36 PA, 1.16 H, 1.95 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.11 SB, 8.4 FPts
2. Daulton Varsho: 4.23 PA, 0.93 H, 1.71 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.11 SB, 7.8 FPts
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4.17 PA, 1.07 H, 1.94 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.03 SB, 8.32 FPts
4. Brandon Belt: 3.94 PA, 0.85 H, 1.65 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.44 FPts
5. Matt Chapman: 3.96 PA, 0.88 H, 1.73 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.58 FPts
6. Nathan Lukes: 3.87 PA, 0.93 H, 1.53 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.69 FPts
7. Alejandro Kirk: 3.77 PA, 0.94 H, 1.47 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.42 FPts
8. Kevin Kiermaier: 3.52 PA, 0.86 H, 1.29 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.09 FPts
9. Cavan Biggio: 3.23 PA, 0.59 H, 0.98 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 4.75 FPts
TB Hitter Projections
1. Josh Lowe: 4.35 PA, 0.96 H, 1.68 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.5 FPts
2. Wander Franco: 4.24 PA, 1.06 H, 1.68 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.36 FPts
3. Randy Arozarena: 4.21 PA, 0.94 H, 1.64 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.59 FPts
4. Brandon Lowe: 4.05 PA, 0.84 H, 1.64 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.17 FPts
5. Harold Ramirez: 3.96 PA, 0.99 H, 1.45 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.53 FPts
6. Taylor Walls: 3.87 PA, 0.68 H, 1.12 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.14 SB, 6.68 FPts
7. Luke Raley: 3.67 PA, 0.78 H, 1.5 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.76 FPts
8. Manuel Margot: 3.63 PA, 0.86 H, 1.31 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.51 FPts
9. Francisco Mejia: 3.4 PA, 0.75 H, 1.15 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.98 FPts
Best Bets
TOR - MoneyLine (+138.0) - 0.069 value
Alek Manoah TOR - Strikeouts Under 5.5 (-170.0) - 0.061 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Brandon Belt (TOR) 1B $2400: 7.44 Proj, 1.25 Score
Bo Bichette (TOR) SS $5000: 8.4 Proj, 1.09 Score
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 1B $5500: 8.32 Proj, 1.05 Score
Brandon Lowe (TB) 2B $4600: 8.17 Proj, 1.04 Score
Manuel Margot (TB) OF $2100: 6.51 Proj, 1.02 Score
MIA @ COL
Projected Game Score:
MIA 5.5 - COL 3.96
MIA 58.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 11.0
Projected Total: 9.46
2023 Pitcher Stats
Braxton Garrett: 6 GS, 672 Pitches, 23.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 12.5 SwStr%, 49.1 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%, 44.7 GB%, 10 Brl%
Kyle Freeland: 10 GS, 793 Pitches, 17.1 K%, 5.5 BB%, 8.3 SwStr%, 43.4 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%, 43.5 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Braxton Garrett (MIA): 83 Pitches 5.11 IP, 5.4 H, 2.4 ER, 5.4 K, 1.3 BB, 14.2 FPts
Kyle Freeland (COL): 83 Pitches 4.97 IP, 5.8 H, 2.7 ER, 3.5 K, 1.4 BB, 9.02 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Braxton Garrett - 4.5 strikeouts
Kyle Freeland - 3.5 strikeouts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Jon Berti: 4.54 PA, 1.07 H, 1.66 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.36 SB, 10.03 FPts
2. Jorge Soler: 4.48 PA, 1.06 H, 2.32 TB, 0.32 HR, 0.01 SB, 10.28 FPts
3. Yuli Gurriel: 4.36 PA, 1.16 H, 1.71 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.97 FPts
4. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.24 PA, 1.17 H, 1.94 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.74 FPts
5. Nick Fortes: 4.16 PA, 1.03 H, 1.72 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.1 FPts
6. Jean Segura: 4.04 PA, 1.08 H, 1.55 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.56 FPts
7. Jonathan Davis: 3.74 PA, 0.8 H, 1.16 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.16 SB, 6.83 FPts
8. Garrett Hampson: 3.67 PA, 0.89 H, 1.44 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.19 SB, 7.56 FPts
9. Xavier Edwards: 3.55 PA, 0.86 H, 1.35 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.59 FPts
COL Hitter Projections
1. Brenton Doyle: 4.45 PA, 0.89 H, 1.46 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.6 FPts
2. Kris Bryant: 4.35 PA, 1.01 H, 1.61 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.53 FPts
3. Elias Diaz: 4.34 PA, 1.09 H, 1.75 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.61 FPts
4. Randal Grichuk: 4.23 PA, 1.03 H, 1.79 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.52 FPts
5. Ryan McMahon: 4.12 PA, 0.89 H, 1.46 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.05 FPts
6. Ezequiel Tovar: 3.97 PA, 1.0 H, 1.58 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.98 FPts
7. Alan Trejo: 3.81 PA, 0.93 H, 1.43 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.97 FPts
8. Michael Toglia: 3.77 PA, 0.81 H, 1.45 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.4 FPts
9. Austin Wynns: 3.3 PA, 0.69 H, 1.01 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.01 SB, 4.5 FPts
Best Bets
Braxton Garrett MIA - Strikeouts Over 4.5 (+115.0) - 0.168 value
Austin Wynns COL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-190.0) - 0.145 value
Brenton Doyle COL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-120.0) - 0.113 value
Kris Bryant COL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (+105.0) - 0.107 value
Kyle Freeland COL - ER Allowed Under 3.5 (-125.0) - 0.077 value
Jon Berti MIA - Total Bases Under 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.076 value
Austin Wynns COL - Runs Scored Under 0.5 (-175.0) - 0.069 value
Randal Grichuk COL - Total Bases Under 1.5 (+100.0) - 0.066 value
Randal Grichuk COL - Runs Scored Under 0.5 (-115.0) - 0.06 value
Jean Segura MIA - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-130.0) - 0.051 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Nick Fortes (MIA) C $3300: 8.1 Proj, 1.24 Score
Jon Berti (MIA) 3B/SS $4700: 10.03 Proj, 1.23 Score
Jorge Soler (MIA) OF $5800: 10.28 Proj, 1.18 Score
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) OF $4000: 8.74 Proj, 1.13 Score
Yuli Gurriel (MIA) 1B $3500: 7.97 Proj, 1.08 Score
SD @ WSH
Projected Game Score:
SD 5.2 - WSH 4.16
SD 55.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 9.36
2023 Pitcher Stats
Blake Snell: 9 GS, 867 Pitches, 23.8 K%, 13.4 BB%, 13.4 SwStr%, 41.8 Strike%, 43.6 Ball%, 36.2 GB%, 13 Brl%
Jake Irvin: 4 GS, 338 Pitches, 18.3 K%, 14.6 BB%, 5.0 SwStr%, 41.4 Strike%, 42.9 Ball%, 43.4 GB%, 11 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Blake Snell (SD): 95 Pitches 6.05 IP, 5.3 H, 2.7 ER, 6.5 K, 2.4 BB, 17.54 FPts
Jake Irvin (WSH): 86 Pitches 5.14 IP, 4.3 H, 2.8 ER, 3.9 K, 3.6 BB, 9.29 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Blake Snell - 5.5 strikeouts
Jake Irvin - 4.5 strikeouts
SD Hitter Projections
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 4.45 PA, 1.01 H, 2.04 TB, 0.27 HR, 0.23 SB, 10.61 FPts
2. Jake Cronenworth: 4.33 PA, 0.91 H, 1.44 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.63 FPts
3. Juan Soto: 4.21 PA, 0.81 H, 1.47 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.08 SB, 9.8 FPts
4. Xander Bogaerts: 4.1 PA, 0.97 H, 1.54 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.04 FPts
5. Matt Carpenter: 3.95 PA, 0.71 H, 1.34 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.75 FPts
6. Rougned Odor: 3.9 PA, 0.78 H, 1.32 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.57 FPts
7. Ha-Seong Kim: 3.78 PA, 0.78 H, 1.2 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.58 FPts
8. Trent Grisham: 3.64 PA, 0.68 H, 1.13 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.61 FPts
9. Austin Nola: 3.29 PA, 0.71 H, 1.0 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.26 FPts
WSH Hitter Projections
1. Lane Thomas: 4.59 PA, 0.97 H, 1.64 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.3 FPts
2. Luis Garcia: 4.48 PA, 1.08 H, 1.65 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.09 FPts
3. Joey Meneses: 4.38 PA, 1.13 H, 1.84 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.8 FPts
4. Jeimer Candelario: 4.28 PA, 0.92 H, 1.53 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.01 FPts
5. Stone Garrett: 4.07 PA, 0.8 H, 1.37 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.49 FPts
6. Dominic Smith: 4.07 PA, 0.88 H, 1.3 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.27 FPts
7. Alex Call: 3.91 PA, 0.72 H, 1.13 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.39 FPts
8. Riley Adams: 3.76 PA, 0.66 H, 1.25 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.08 FPts
9. C.J. Abrams: 3.5 PA, 0.79 H, 1.15 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.11 SB, 5.43 FPts
Best Bets
Juan Soto SD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-150.0) - 0.083 value
Rougned Odor SD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-185.0) - 0.069 value
WSH - MoneyLine (+158.0) - 0.056 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) OF $6000: 10.61 Proj, 1.35 Score
Joey Meneses (WSH) 1B $2900: 7.8 Proj, 1.19 Score
Matt Carpenter (SD) 1B $2700: 7.75 Proj, 1.18 Score
Juan Soto (SD) OF $5900: 9.8 Proj, 1.17 Score
Lane Thomas (WSH) OF $3900: 8.3 Proj, 1.06 Score
CWS @ DET
Projected Game Score:
CWS 3.6 - DET 3.1
CWS 53.7% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.0
Projected Total: 6.7
2023 Pitcher Stats
Lucas Giolito: 10 GS, 954 Pitches, 24.1 K%, 4.9 BB%, 13.4 SwStr%, 47.3 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%, 32.9 GB%, 9 Brl%
Alex Faedo: 3 GS, 230 Pitches, 19.7 K%, 1.6 BB%, 11.3 SwStr%, 50.4 Strike%, 28.7 Ball%, 29.2 GB%, 10 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Lucas Giolito (CWS): 92 Pitches 5.84 IP, 5.0 H, 2.3 ER, 6.7 K, 1.5 BB, 18.93 FPts
Alex Faedo (DET): 75 Pitches 4.44 IP, 4.6 H, 2.2 ER, 3.6 K, 1.5 BB, 9.95 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Lucas Giolito - 5.5 strikeouts
Alex Faedo - 4.5 strikeouts
CWS Hitter Projections
1. Tim Anderson: 4.06 PA, 1.09 H, 1.55 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.16 SB, 7.16 FPts
2. Andrew Benintendi: 3.99 PA, 0.99 H, 1.38 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.64 FPts
3. Luis Robert: 3.87 PA, 1.05 H, 1.83 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.08 SB, 7.72 FPts
4. Yoan Moncada: 3.81 PA, 0.85 H, 1.36 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.51 FPts
5. Andrew Vaughn: 3.72 PA, 0.87 H, 1.44 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.21 FPts
6. Gavin Sheets: 3.56 PA, 0.8 H, 1.31 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.66 FPts
7. Jake Burger: 3.47 PA, 0.77 H, 1.55 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.2 FPts
8. Yasmani Grandal: 3.41 PA, 0.64 H, 1.01 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.35 FPts
9. Romy Gonzalez: 3.09 PA, 0.69 H, 1.16 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.17 FPts
DET Hitter Projections
1. Zach McKinstry: 4.35 PA, 0.87 H, 1.35 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 6.36 FPts
2. Javier Baez: 4.27 PA, 0.86 H, 1.33 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.1 SB, 5.99 FPts
3. Riley Greene: 4.26 PA, 0.96 H, 1.48 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.86 FPts
4. Spencer Torkelson: 4.17 PA, 0.85 H, 1.42 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.21 FPts
5. Nick Maton: 3.89 PA, 0.68 H, 1.11 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 5.41 FPts
6. Matt Vierling: 3.83 PA, 0.87 H, 1.31 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.82 FPts
7. Akil Baddoo: 3.64 PA, 0.74 H, 1.1 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.15 SB, 5.97 FPts
8. Miguel Cabrera: 3.67 PA, 0.75 H, 1.11 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.69 FPts
9. Jake Rogers: 3.36 PA, 0.6 H, 1.02 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.03 SB, 4.68 FPts
Best Bets
Alex Faedo DET - Strikeouts Under 4.5 (-160.0) - 0.084 value
Tim Anderson CWS - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-120.0) - 0.075 value
Andrew Benintendi CWS - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-145.0) - 0.072 value
Lucas Giolito CWS - Strikeouts Over 5.5 (-150.0) - 0.063 value
Andrew Vaughn CWS - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-155.0) - 0.062 value
Gavin Sheets CWS - Runs Scored Under 0.5 (-165.0) - 0.061 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
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