DFS Breakdown: April 10th
A close look at the DFS slate for Friday, April 10th
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Free content Friday! And I’m throwing a lot out there today. Started some betting stuff here:
And the APP is totally wide open if you use the password “friday”. Check it out here.
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Standard paid members still get all articles, just not all of the projections and tools.
Weather
There’s some rain potential in the White Sox at Royals game, but it doesn’t look highly likely to cause a PPD.
We have some low temps, though:
Athletics/Mets: 48 degrees
White Sox / Royals 53 degrees
Those are fair spots to avoid. Because there’s plenty of decent weather on the board along with those two spots.
Implied Runs
Pitchers - Cash
Here’s a list of the dudes I’d consider in cash:
Tyler Glasnow $9,800 vs. TEX
Kris Bubic $8,800 vs. CWS
Those are the two top projections (by a good margin), and they have the highest ownership projections. You’d have to keep an eye on the weather forecast if you’re playing Bubic. A rain delay can wreck an SPs day even if the game resumes eventually.
It doesn’t look like weather should keep us off Bubic for right now, though. And he’s been pretty nasty this year with a huge 17.5% SwStr% and a 27.3% K%. The wildness (13.6% BB%) has kept the efficiency down, but we think that will improve, and this is a great matchup for him against the White Sox.
As for Glasnow, he sports a 32% K% in the early going, and the Rangers are a pretty soft matchup. He’s also a massive favorite (-240), which gives you as good of a chance at a win bonus as you’ll find on the slate.
Others:
Connelly Early $7,700 vs. STL
Clay Holmes $9,000 vs. ATH
Emerson Hancock $7,600 vs. HOU
It’s not a pretty pitching slate. I think Early is the only other one in contention for cash. And he checks in at third in ownership projection. So it’s a pretty easy slate to figure out if you’re not playing a bunch of lineups.
Holmes is in a good spot at home against the strikeout-heavy A’s, but he’s $9,000 - which is a stupid price. He is pretty safe, though.
Pitchers - Tourneys
Glasnow $9,800 vs. TEX
Bubic $8,800 vs. CWS
Early $7,700 vs. STL
Shane Baz $8,400 vs. SF
Landen Roupp $7,800 vs. BAL
Hancock $7,600 vs. HOU
Slade Cecconi $8,300 vs. ATL
I think Baz is my favorite tourney option. The Giants are bad, and Baz is off to a good start under the hood with a 13.1% SwStr% and a 34% Ball%. If he tightens up the fastball and keeps the ball in the yard, he could have a big outing.
Cecconi has a SwStr% above 13% early on, so that’s a new and good sign from last year. It’s not a good matchup, but he’s a guy who can knock back 7-8 innings when the batted balls are going at people. He’s thrown 93 and 85 pitches so far with 11 strikeouts to four walks. Not bad, although yeah the price is pretty rough.
If you need a punt:
Dustin May $6,200 vs. BOS
Jake Irvin $6,000 vs. MIL
The projections don’t hate those guys, but it’s hard to look at their results and not hate them. May projects for 15 points, which I think is just too high, but hey, a projection is a projection, and it’s very good to use projections in DFS.
My small pool is going to be:
Glasnow
Bubic
Early
Baz
Holmes
Hancock
Roupp
Stacks - Top Raw Projection (Whole Lineup)
Dodgers
Padres
Royals
Nationals
Braves
Stacks - Top Raw Projection (1-5 Hitters)
Dodgers
Padres
Nationals
Yankees
Royals
Stacks - Top Values (Full Lineup)
Padres
Royals
Twins
Nationals
White Sox
Stacks - Top Values (1-5 Hitters)
Twins
Nationals
Padres
Rockies
Rangers
Five-Man Stack Details
These screenshots are from the “Stack Finder” menu on the Hitter Projections on the app”.
Three-Man Stacks Details
The top projected lower-ownership stack is the Padres. They’re at just an average of 6% ownership with a near slate-topping projection of 46.44 points.
It seems like the Brewers might be bad chalk, but those are famous last words. They just don’t look good on paper, but they always score a bunch of runs, and Jake Irvin is certainly one of the more hittable pitchers in the league.
We have Patrick Corbin back, by the way.
We’ve been stacking up against him for years. And he’s BACK. The Twins don’t have the hardest hitting lineup in the world, but how do you not drop some Buxton + Josh Bell action tonight.
Here’s a look at that Padres lineup against Sugano.
Check the “Games & Lineups” page under the PRO option to get that stuff. Really nice-looking game cards with projections baked in.
Core Hitter Plays
This is where we go position by position looking at the top projections and top values in said projections.
CATCHERS
Top Plays
Will Smith $4,200
Ryan Jeffers $3,300
Cal Raleigh $5,000
Top Values
Edgar Quero $2,100
Drew Millas $2,700
Bo Naylor $2,800
FIRST BASE
Top Plays
Shohei Ohtani $6,500
Paul Goldschmidt $3,300
Vlad Guerrero $5,500
Top Values
Ty France $2,200
Lenyn Sosa $2,400
Paul Goldschmidt $3,300
Edouard julien $2,800
SECOND BASE
Top Plays
Brice Turang $5,100
Luke Keaschall $4,200
Jazz Chisholm $4,000
Top Values
Jose Tena $2,500
Hyeseong Kim $2,300
Darell Hernaiz $2,000
THIRD BASE
Top Plays
Jose Ramirez $5,600
Manny Machado $4,700
Austin Riley $3,700
Top Values
Tanner Murray $2,000
Jose Tena $2,500
Darell Hernaiz $2,000
Caleb Durbin $2,500
SHORTSTOP
Top Plays
Bobby Witt Jr. $5,900
Gunnar Henderson $5,700
Corey Seager $4,300
Top Values
Hyeseon Kim $2,300
JP Crawford $2,400
Jorge Mateo $2,500
OUTFIELD
Top Plays
Shohei Ohtani $6,500
Byron Buxton $4,900
Yordan Alvarez $6,200
Aaron Judge $6,400
Fernando Tatis Jr. $5,400
Ramon Laureano $4,100
Kyle Tucker $6,000
Jackson Merrill $4,400
Wyatt Langford $3,500
Top Values
Tyler Tolbert $2,100
Lane Thomas $2,200
Tyrone Taylor $2,000
Jorge Mateo $2,500
Leody Taveras $2,500
Isaac Collins $2,900
Luis Matos $2,700
THE OPTIMAL
This always changes a ton as lineups come out, but here’s what the optimizer is telling us early on:
SP: GLASNOW
SP: BUBIC
C: WILL SMITH
1B: SHOHEI OHTANI
2B: NASIM NUNEZ
3B: JOSE TENA
SS: XANDER BOGAERTS
OF: JACKSON MERRILL
OF: RAMON LAUREANO
OF: TYLER TOLBERT