DFS CASH Breakdown - July 22 Night Slate
Jon's CASH thoughts for the Wednesday night slate
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Trevor is doing a sweet job breaking down both slates today, but I’m on a CASH GAME HEATER, so I want to keep that going and I do way better when I write my thoughts down.
I thought I was cooked last night. More than 50% of the field went to David Peterson at $5,500. I thought that was completely nutso. The price was too low, I admit that, but people just seem to go insane on the Wrigley winds situation. The winds were blowing in last night, so the field flocked down Peterson. The 13 O/U in Coors had something to do with that as well. Everyboy went Castillo + Peterson + Coors.
I went Liberatore instead of Peterson. Peterson went for 24 points, but somehow I survived by having both Wood and Goodman in there and getting nice games from my 5% owned Lindor and Ewing. I swear I’ve been hitting double ups like 70% of the time since I really got it geared up in early June. But it’s probably more like 60%, I don’t want to check!
But I am confident in saying that if you take my projections and articles and play the $1, $2, and $3 double ups consistently, you can easily pay for your subscription here with the profits. These projections are really strong, and I’ve become a pretty strong cash game player myself, I think.
Weather
Looks like we should be all clear! I can’t take another one of these double double header days. Today was rough for the web app… but it should all be squared away
Game Info
The market sare buying into the Red Sox recent performance. That’s a 5.3 implication against Bradish. The Yankees are the top implication against Chandler, and they’re always stackable at home.
The Rangers show up here as well. They’ve been a lot better offensively lately with Langford back and some other guys picking up the pace. But it’s a home game, that will continue to hurt them. Against Anthony Kay, you can play the righties, but I’m hesitant to play the Rangers a ton.
There’s no clear offensive spot to hammer, which is weird because this is such a weak pitching slate!
Pitchers
This is one of the grossest pitching slates of the year. The top projection is Bradish at 15.7 points.
The projected chalk is Sandy Alcantara and Peter Lambert, wild stuff going on here.
Kyle Bradish takes on the red hot Red Sox. That’s not the reason I don’t want to play him much, though. He’s just not a cash game type guy this year. There’s been very little consistency in his game, and the value projection just isn’t there at 1.75x. We have really seen the offenses winning the day lately as pitchers are getting worn down and the temperatures are way up. The winning formula this month has been to pay down. That’s not a prescription for every slate, but I don’t think I’m using Bradish as one of my two choices.
Let’s look at the chalk.
Sandy Alcantara $8,500 vs. HOU
Doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Alcantara by the numbers. The Houston lineup projects right in the middle of the pack in xwOBA and they have a low K% at 21%.
But Sandy’s been good lately:
He’s throwing a ton of pitches and getting through the sixth inning almost every time. So that boosts the floor, but the projection doesn’t like him as chalk at this price at all. His value projection is 1.75x, buried down the board.
I could see it, though. Outside of Yordan, they don’t have a ton of power threats, which gives Alcantara a good chance at 15-20 points here on a slate where we don’t have a clear path to 25+ points from anybody.
Peter Lambert $9,000 vs. MIA
The Marlins have cooled off. I think a lot of the big offensive push they made this summer was due to that week in Coors and Sacramento. It’s not a great lineup, and Lambert’s been good.
He has some strikeouts. The walks are a little bit high, but the 17.5% K-BB% since June is strong, especially for this slate. Ceiling doesn’t seem to matter much tonight in cash, because we don’t have it anywhere. That game has a low total of 8 (tied for lowest on the slate), so maybe that’s where this ownership is coming from.
Higher floor pitchers with a low game total. Maybe it’ll work.
The top values:
Bubba Chandler $6,600 vs. NYY
Aaron Nola $7,400 vs. LAD
Anthony Kay $6,800 vs. TEX
Kinda makes you want to do something nasty to yourself, doesn’t it? I like a good $7K pitcher play, but these guys and these matchups… really bad looking slate.
The cash slates we like are the ones with obvious plays and we just force ‘em in at high ownership and beat the people who miss them. This is not that sort of slate.
We’re just going to have to be very price sensitive on this one.
I’m thinking maybe Sandy + Lambert really is the way to go.
Max Fried ($8,800) returns, but I have him at a pitch count under 70. He made one rehab outing and threw three innings. So he’s looking at 4-5 innings max in this one, and that’s tough to take at $8.8K even though we do like lefties against the Bucs.