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What I wish is that only you and I had access to good projections and advanced data. We’re doing good stuff here in DFS. We’re on the right spots, the right plays, we’re not missing the big values that pop up. But pretty much everybody is reading the same book.
The lineup smashed last night. 155.5 points. 53 from the pitchers, 28 from Tatis, 19 from Machado, 33 from Swanson. But it finished 429th out of 815 and fell just shy of the cash line.
90% on Woo, 65% on Skubal, 57% on Tatis. I guess we got pretty good numbers on Swanson and Machado on those smash plays. So this wasn’t too bad. I just whiffed on Marsee and Keys. So we’re over the target, it’s just that there aren’t many people out here playing even the small dollar DFS contests without using projections.
But man, it’s fun to do. I’m having a blast with these cash lineups. Just hoping we can get hot and rip off some consecutive wins to get the bank roll back to where it was.
Weather
I guess some rain might be coming this weekend, but it ain’t here yet, and it’s super hot everywhere. We don’t have this Wrigley game on the night slate, but we do have th MIA/COL game again.
Game Info
The boosted up offenses:
Marlins vs. Freeland
Dodgers vs. JT Ginn
Rays vs. Lugo
D’Backs vs. McDonald
Royals vs. McClanahan (???)
I am not crazy about targeting Ginn. He’s limited barrels at home (5.7%) with his ground ball rate on that heavy sinker. He’s struck out 26% of righties this year. So he knows how to limit the damage. He hasn’t faced a lineup like the Dodgers, and we’re going to LA their fair shake, but it’s just not a smash stack like some people will think it is.
Trevor McDonald is the same kind of situation. He’s been taken deep all of four times this year with a .317 xwOBA allowed and a 57% GB%. You have to string hits together against him to really rack up the runs. You don’t do it in one or two swings. But the D’Backs are a good lineup for that, and this game’s in Arizona - which makes a difference.
I have no reason to avoid Kyle Freeland or Seth Lugo, though.
Both have sub-14% K-BB% with xwOBA allowed over .351. Lugo gives up tanks to both sides of the plate. Freeland has just one homer allowed to lefties, so we’re on the right-handed side of the Marlins tonight.
Those are the two offenses I’m most interested in.
The Rays have been better at home:
But I can’t say that makes a ton of sense since Tropicana hasn’t historically been a hitter’s park, although maybe some of the renovations this winter changed some things.
The Marlins can and will stack up some righties to take on Freeland:
The straight 1-4 stack there works even in cash.
STOWERS SPLITS:
Not too bad there for Stowers, but the lower SLG against lefties is expected. Freeland is nothing special with the platoon advantage, so it’s a fine Stowers spot - just not an auto-lock like he probably should have been for me last night.
Pitchers
The Dodgers have not announced a starter tonight, but it’s not Ohtani. It will be some sort of bullpen game. So that’s throwing off the projections a bit. The Dodgers have, of course, a good bullpen.
We’ll see some Kyle Hurt and Jonathan Hernandez, but the Dodgers will be able to choose their matchups. I doubt they’ll let Nick Kurtz see a righty more than once. So the Athletics dodged a bullet not seeing Ohtani, but it’s still not great, and the implied total reflects Ohtani not starting.