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The Run Environment
LAD at ATL is the only game on the board that matters for totals. The sim has it at 10.11 runs, and the Dodgers own 6.35 of that. The rest of the slate is bunched together: MIL-SD 8.72, TB-NYY 8.67, CLE-CWS 8.64. By team it goes LAD (6.35), NYY (4.70), MIL (4.62), CWS (4.61), then SD, CLE, TB, with Atlanta last at 3.76.
The field is right about the Dodgers and wrong about the other side of that game. Glasnow is 65% owned against Atlanta, and Atlanta bats are still drawing 13 to 21% (Olson 21%, Acuna 18%, Harris 18%). Both crowds can’t be right, and the sim sides with Glasnow. Hopefully the spot to go to is Chicago, 4.61 runs against an opener, with Antonacci and Colson Montgomery
It’s playoff baseball, so expect short leashes. Three of the eight starters project under two innings.