DFS Slate Breakdown - Thursday Afternoon
Breaking down a single entry DFS approach for the Thursday afternoon slate (6/4)
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I hope you guys have been making the proper final decisions in your single-entry lineups. Because I have not. I’m super cold right. The Skenes thing didn’t go my way last night, and I just didn’t get that big hitter score from anybody.
There’s more randomness in MLB than any other sport. You’re rarely getting a bad game from Christian McCaffrey in NFL, but any hitter can put up a goose egg on any given day. So we just stick with it and keep making the plays the projections like. Maybe a slight tweak to make for me will be to focus on the upside. The Ha-Seong Kim play last night was an example. He did get have an RBI hit, so it wasn’t a total bust. But he’s been awful this year and isn’t a huge upside guy, so I might have better served going elsewhere.
Let’s attack this afternoon slate and try to have a 2-for-2 day in cashing double-ups on this split slate Thursday.
Weather
Another clean day, this has been a real joy. The weather here on my vacation has been pristine.
And you’ve gotta enjoy good weather, right? There’s something about being in God’s creation away from man made stuff that gets to pretty much everybody. I’m no outdoorsman. I hate bugs and plants. I mean I really don’t like animals at all except for birds. I’m a big bird guy.
But if there’s a Creator (there is), it stands to reason that He would be better at creating than we are. So we should try to enjoy that when we can. That probably doesn’t exactly mean just really appreciating baseball games where it’s not raining… but that’s a step toward what I’m talking about.
Game Info
Three spot to focus on:
Brewers vs. Houser
Phillies vs. Giolito
Red Sox vs. Rogers
Yankees vs. Cecconi
Those first two specifically are the elite spots. I kinda believe in Trevor Rogers still, but there’s not much hope for Houser and Giolito against these tough offenses.
The Yankees are surprisingly low against Cecconi. But that’s what the absence of Judge will do.
Team Hitting Projections
The Yankees still pace the field in projection. Rice/Grisham/Bellinger/Chisholm is a very solid top four against righties.
The Red Sox are the source of value against Rogers, even though I already kinda went against that. Ceddanne Rafaela and Willson Contreras find themselves up against a lefty, which is good for them. Duran and Abreu are the top two hitters in this lineup, but neither of them hit lefties all that well.
So I’d like to stack up some Phillies where I can.
In just a dozen innings, Giolito has six strikeouts and 12 walks. He’s still waking up from his long offseason slumber not being on a team. Even at his best, he was giving up homers and having bad starts all of the time. And this is a tough spot against the Phillies. I’m like 30 miles from that stadium… I should go.
Pitchers
Wheeler clears the field. He’s expensive, but you have to play him in cash. He has a 19% K-BB% this year with a .282 xwOBA allowed. And the Padres continue to be terrible on both sides of the ball.
The SP2 decision is a lot tougher.
The projections still like Carlos Rodon a bit at $8,700. But the velo tanked last time:
And he got just three whiffs in that start… that’s a little concerning for a guy coming back from a shoulder injury.
So who else is there to consider?
Trevor Rogers ($6,700). He’s up against a Red Sox lineup that doesn’t have a lot going for it against lefties. By the season numbers, though, they’ve been better against lefties. So maybe I’m talking nonsense. Abreu has a 1.006 OPS against LHP in just 75 PAs. Contreras is the only one I really trust against lefties. The rest of these guys have much poorer results in the bigger samples against lefties.
But Rogers has been really bad with a 4.09 JA ERA, and it’s not getting any better:
He hasn’t struck out more than three hitters in his last five starts. His SwSr% is 11.6% on the year and way worse than that since coming off the IL. Geh!
How about Coleman Crow ($7,000) against the Giants? The Breweres pitching has been dominating the Giants this series. But Crow has thrown 77, 68 and 61 pitches in his three starts (61 being the most recent). And he has an 8.3% SwStr% with a 97 Stuff+. It’s hard to believe in him scoring many points. I think he’s kind of a AAAA-type player.
Brayan Bello ($6,800) against the Orioles. Do we have the guts to try that? He has discovered something lately:
Since May 1st, he has a .319 xwOBA allowed with a 51% GB% as he’s been very good in bulk.
But it’s still just 23 strikeouts in 30.1 innings. His last outing was 64 pitches. He’s making a traditional start in this one, and those have gone horribly for him this year.
We are not going to be confident with our SP2 selection here.
Those are the four options:
Wheeler [LOCK]
Crow
Rodon
Rogers
The projections like Rogers the best for the price. I’ve got him for 15.4 points, The Bat has him for 14.1. I think he’s the right choice.
The ownership projections:
Wheeler 77%
Rodon 38%
Crow 23%
Rogers 20%
Bello 15%
Houser 13%
Cecconi 10%
Giolito 7%
The Rogers play is a Rodon fade. So we’re really hoping that loss of velo was a sign of something wrong rather than a one start blip. Risky business.
But Rogers is $2K cheaper than Rodon. So I think I’m going there.
Hitters
Top Projections:
I’m locking in Rice and Schwarber to start with. I think that’s good chalk.
Top Values:
Bryce Eldrige is really looking good this year, and the Giants are playing him. Against Crow in Milwaukee is a good spot.
We’ll probably get some funky lineups with these being day games. So I bet somebody else pops up.
Stuart Fairchild ($2,000) against the lefty Rodon. He has some power, but not much of a big-league sample. He hit .289/.417/.479 in the minors this year before the call-up. The last two years in the minors against lefties, he’s hit .368/.500/.633 with an 11% K%. So that’s a very good sign. I suppose he’s a good play. But that lineup isn’t out yet.
CATCHERS
I’m getting to Rice. But you could go with Adley against the lefty. He’s better against southpaws and having a good year. But he’s too close in price to Rice for me.
The punt is Carlos Narvaez ($2,300). He’s around a league average bat against lefites (.326 xwOBA). So that’s fine.
FIRST BASE
I like Harper, Alonso, and Willson Contreras. But I don’t think I can get away from the price on Eldridge. He has a 25% K% with a 12.5% Brl% and a huge .382 xwOBA this year. Seems like he’s really taken a step forward. Huge, huge power in that bat. But it’s an opportunity cost of not having Harper against Giolito to pair up with Schwarber.