DFS Slate Preview - July 6th
A close look at the DFS slate tonight with an eye on cash games!
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Weather
Full report from Kevin Roth at PropFinder here!
One spot to worry about: Astros at Nationals. And that’s a big one because it’s Mike Burrows vs. Miles Mikolas. That’s the game of the night for offense, but it might get washed away. I suppose it looks fine for bats right now:
ORANGE/YELLOW - Scattered storms in the area during the game. I can’t really pinpoint the details until closer to first pitch, but my best guess currently would be some kind of delay and a game that eventually finishes.
You don’t need to fade bats in the case of a rain delay; they’ll still almost surely play nine innings. But we will have to keep an eye on the announcements there, because a PPD would change a lot of stuff about the slate, taking one of the top scoring games off the board and dropping it to a six-game slate.
Game Info
Dodgers
The Rockies leave Coors for Los Angeles. They’ll send Kyle Freeland to the hill. So the Dodgers are juiced up. They scored eight runs on nine hits against him on May 26th in Coors. They are more than 1.5 runs clear of the second place implication. That’s not a spot to fade in cash games, and probably not tourneys either.
The expected lineup and projections for the Dodgers:
So the prices are mostly fair. The values aren’t popping off the page by any measure. But the floor is very high for that offense.
Nationals
The next biggest implication is the Nationals in that potential rain game.
Burrows continues to be a disaster and now he’ll have to deal with the Nats who lead baseball in run scoring.
Burrows is way better against righties than lefties.
So your targets should be the many lefties in that lineup (Wood, Garcia, Abrams, Lile, Tena).
Braves
It’s Freddy Peralta taking on the Braves in Atlanta for the fourth game in that set. But Peralta isn’t awful. I mean, he’s been bad (13% K-BB%), but not like a total gas can. Just a .302 xwOBA allowed, and he’s survived most of his starts.
So it’s fine to use the Braves, and you can certainly stack them up and hope for a real bad night for Peralta - but the Braves are a significant step behind LA and Washington.
Astros
I’m surprised at how low they are. Just 5.02 implied runs off of Mikolas. The Nationals have been removing him before things get too out of hand, he’s been down in the 60-70 pitch range quite a few times. But I don’t believe they have an opener to use ahead of him tonight, so it could be a higher pitch count for him tonight and I’d want to bet on Yordan and the other decent Astros hitters.
Padres
The lefties on the Padres will get some pitches to crush as they take on Brandon Pfaadt tonight. But it’s in San Diego, which makes it tough to totally crush homers. Still, the Padres have some affordable lefties and Pfaadt just can’t get those guys out.
Jake Cronenworth really has been hitting #2 for them. But I don’t know why, because he can’t hit.
A .218 xBA and .296 xwOBA this year. Awful stuff, but $2K for a #2 lefty against Pfaadt is very hard to pass up.
Those are clearly the core offenses tonight. The projections on those team offenses:
Pitchers
As usual, we hit the paywall here before we start seeing the full projections and talking about how to build these lineups.