Division Dive - AL Central
A look at the early season data from the AL Central
We’re in CENTRAL DIVISION week, and we begin in the American League.
This was originally going to be a podcast, but the quality of content is way better when I write it. And sitting down and writing makes me feel good. So let’s write.
NOTE: ALL STATS CURRENT AS OF APRIL 12TH
Guardians
The first thing we’ll do for each team is give the last two weeks lineup grid. These are updated daily and available to subscribers in this resource, found in the Resource Glossary:
Lineup Grid
Notes:
The top four have been pretty steady. They came right out with Chase DeLauter hitting 2nd, and that’s mostly where he’s been.
After the top four, though, there’s are real questions about who will play where on this team. There are a lot of dudes, and none of them are overly impressive.
CJ Kayfus was a guy we thought could be an everyday guy, but he’s a half-time player so far.
Platoon Watch
David Fry against lefties, Kyle Manzardo against righties.
Hitters
It’s another slow start for Cleveland’s offense, but they have a winning record as I write this.
J-RAM
Things will improve once Jose Ramirez gets going. There’s no reason to worry about him. Brl% is up, contact still very high, still hitting a bunch of fly balls.
DELAUTER
Can it keep up? Can he stay healthy? He’s already about halfway to the number of games he played in each of the last two seasons. Unlike his swing, which is gross, the underlying numbers look fantastic.
Strange player, no real hope for 150+ games played, but he can rake.
I’d try to sell high. I have tried to sell high. And I’ll continue to try. But that’s more likely to work because he gets hurt than because he starts sucking. The guy has been an elite hitter at every level, and the .304 xBA and .422 xwOBA with the five-point gap between K% and BB% early on makes it seem like he’s transitioning just fine to MLB.
But yeah, there’s the risk that the league adjusts and he has some struggles. So he’s a good sell-high for multiple reasons.
ANGEL MARTINEZ
We have a 2B eligible player here, and he’s off to a ripping start. It’s probably largely fake. The bat speed and power stuff for his larger MLB sample aren’t good, and even in the minors he was around an average power hitter. But if you’re hurting at 2B (many such cases), you’ve got a potential add here.
He’s young with a good hit tool, and a little bit of everything else. And he’s already set a new max EV (110, three miles per hour above his previous) this year, so maybe there’s a mini power breakout happening in this situation.
KYLE MANZARDO
He was looking super unlucky a few days ago, but that’s evened out. Just a .221 xBA and a .311 xwOBA. The 11.1% Brl%, you’d think, would have turned into more than one homer.
I think he’ll get to some homers and the SLG will end up pretty decent. But he’s a batting average liability who doesn’t play full-time against lefties and doesn’t steal bases. He’s very replaceable in the fantasy game at the end of the day.
BO NAYLOR
It looks like he still sucks, just in case you were wondering. But he’s deserved better than he’s gotten. Remember that it’s mid-April; it’s been cold. And especially so in the Cleveland part of the country.
Pitchers
I’ll also show the xStats Dashboard for each team. This was a new addition to the dashboard last year. It shows luck stats
→ BABIP
→ HR/FB
→ RISP H% (my version of LOB%/Strand%)
As well as AVG vs. xAVG and wOBA vs. xwOBA.
TANNER BIBEE
He’s been giving up runs since the jump in spring training. Some bad luck with a .370 BABIP. The underlying stuff hasn’t been awful, but his fastball continues to get slugger. It’s good to see the cutter usage right there with it, but that pitch has also been whalloped.
He will be better. Something we like to look for are decent K-BB% with high xwOBA allowed. xwOBA stuff for pitchers tends to regress. Bibee’s 15% K-BB% is fine. Not really 10-team worthy, and really Bibee hasn’t been a 12-team guy since 2024. So he’s probably on the fringe. He’s someone you can bail on in a shallow league for the Noah Schultz-type call-up. I don’t know if I’d have done that one specifically, but you get the point!
I think Bibee is just a league-average righty. The Guardians typically let their SPs get deep into games, so he’s a decent quality starts league guy.
JOEY CANTILLO
This Guardians staff is a tricky one to figure out. Lots of unique arms. Cantillo’s changeup has been carrying him for his whole career, but specifically this year:
A sick 25% SwStr%, 55% Strike%, .138 xwOBA on that pitch. But the fastball is so, so bad. You can never feel confident in that dude. There will be ugly starts.
PARKER MESSICK
I think you just start him for the year and enjoy the end-of-season ERA he’s going to give. Another unique arm. Not much velo, but from the left side with his deceptive release, control, and depth of pitch mix, I think it’s going to work out.
GAVIN WILLIAMS
Will he ever get the walks under control? Doesn’t seem like it. But we’ve seen what he can do with his size and very good stuff. Just buckle up, it’ll be a bumpy ride, and the WHIP is going to hurt you.
BULLPEN
Nothing really to mention here, it’s all Cade Smith, don’t worry about the fact that he only has three of the five saves so far.
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I’ll do my best to keep this pace. Covering two divisions per week through the year. I think it’s going to be very valuable for fantasy players, as we won’t ever go very long without a look at every fantasy player of relevance. Your feedback is welcome!