Division Dive - NL East
A look at the goings on in the NL East
I did the AL East division dive via podcast earlier this week. The plan was to do two of these each week, cycling through a pair of divisions weekly. That means we look at each team in depth every three weeks.
And I think the idea was solid, it will keep us on top of things, and fewer guys will slip through the cracks on us. But podcasting alone sucks. So I’m just going to write this one. I very well might record the podcast version of it after I write it. It will certainly be a lot easier when I already know what I’m going to say beforehand.
So let’s go through all five of these NL East teams, looking at some of the fantasy baseball-specific highlights and lowlights.
Atlanta Braves
Playing Time
I don’t think anybody drafting Drake Baldwin knew it was going to be this good. It’s not a surprise to see him hitting very well, but the dude making all twelve starts out of the gate was a surprise. Even to me, and I was banging the “Baldwin will DH a bunch” drum all draft season. He has five homers already (writing this before Tuesday’s game) with 11 runs and 13 RBI. Redrafting today, I’d imagine Raleigh still goes #1, but Baldwin might be right there behind him.
PLATOON STUFF
→ Mike Yastrzemski & Dom Smith playing exclusively against righties
→ Jonah Heim playing catcher against lefties, shifting Baldwin to DH
Hitters
LUCK STUFF
I’ll show the xwOBA vs. wOBA plot for each team as we go through it.
Immediately, we see some good news on the slow starts from Acuna and Harris II.
Here are the stats from the main dashboard. Probably not very easy to see on your phone screen. But you should be able to make it full screen and go into landscape mode to make it somewhat legible.
It’s been a very slow start for Ronald Acuna Jr. Just a .175 average, a .200 SLG, and zero homers through his first 48 PAs (again, writing this before Tuesday’s game). The strikeout rate isn’t high (17%), but his contact rate is very low (72% Z-Contact which is anemic). But we saw the high xwOBA in the plot above. There’s nothing to worry about, really, here, unless you were hoping for some sort of 50-homer season with a .310 batting average. He’s a higher strikeout hitter, and that will keep the batting average away from the league’s best.
Very good news on the basepaths, he’s been aggressive so far with a 50% SB Attempt%.
Stat comparison:
It looks largely the same. So things are going to come for Acuna. I do expect a higher strikeout rate, though. That 2023 season is never going to be repeated.
Mauricio Dubon has started well, providing some offensive production from a Braves shortstop - which is new! But it’s friggin’ Mauricio Dubon. He has a .251 xBA with a .370 BABIP. His barrel rate is up from 1.2% to 13.8%, and that’s still with low bat speed. This is just a lucky couple of weeks. Don’t move in on Dubon.
Pitchers
It’s basically become a one-man show. All of Chris Sale’s friends got hurt and went home. And now he’s chillin’ with Bryce Elder, Reynaldo Lopez, Grant Holmes, and dudes like Martin Perez and Jose Suarez.
It’s a gross situation. I suppose it’s only fair to point out that Bryce Elder has a 0.00 ERA through 13 innings. Some guys are just so bad for so long that we can easily just ignore it when they do some good things for a few weeks. Don’t bite on Elder. He’s simply run into a stretch where he’s hit some spots, generated soft contact, and his defense has made a bunch of outs behind him. It will not last!
Some are still believers in Reynaldo Lopez. But the early signs are bad.
His fastball has just a 7.6% SwStr% with a 96 Stuff+ that doesn’t make you feel good. And it’s been hit in the air a ton at a 50% FB%. To make it worse, he’s throwing it 50% of the time! I think Lopez is a great guy to stack against in DFS. He’s not someone I’d be using in fantasy leagues.
There haven’t been many save opportunities, but Raisel Iglesias has the one that came in a normal situation. So he would seem to indeed be the guy, but Suarez has opened up the season with five scoreless innings. So he’s hot on the heels if things go south for Raisel.
Phillies
Playing Time
The top three have been as predicted. It’s Turner-Schwarber-Harper every day, and Bohm hit clean-up in their first ten games. They know what they want at the top of the lineup. When Stott is playing, he’s in their 5th ahead of Adolis Garcia.
I’m not sure why, to be honest. Bohm and Stott are not power hitters, and neither guy is someone you feel great up there in big spots. But I suppose they’re pushing them up in the lineup until someone else takes the spot from them.
PLATOON STUFF
→ Bryson Stott has sat three out of six games against lefties
Hitters
Luck Plot
Nothing out of the ordinary here other than the good luck (helped by the speed, I would guess) of Justin Crawford.
To the stats:
Might we see a lower batting average from Kyle Schwarber this year? We did get a little too comfortable with him being a decent AVG guy the last two years. He certainly has .220 in his range of outcomes.
Bryce Harper has two bombs and a 15.2% Brl%, so that’s good to see.
Justin Crawford is hitting .355/.394/.419 hot diggity dog! Just the one steal and a 9.1% attempt rate, though. And yeah, he’s got a .440 BABIP with a .227 xBA. It’s not great for Crawford, even though you’re pretty happy with the batting average he’s given you so far. The steals should come:
But the power probably won’t:
How about our boy Adolis Garcia?
We like that! And we like this:
He’s around 50% owned. There are plenty of leagues with 10 or 12 teams and three starting outfielder spots. He’s borderline in those spots, but anything deeper I think he should be a target.
Pitchers
We have the bloated Jesus Luzardo ERA because one of his bad outings came in the first start. But a RIDICULOUS 35% K-BB% through two outings. That 18:1 K:BB should have you buying wherever possible.
Aaron Nola has also been excellent.
Taijuan Walker has been completely awful, and they should find somebody else.
We’ve talked plenty about Andrew Painter in the daily notes, and we’ll continue to do so. But I don’t love it:
The fastball just doesn’t look good. It’s a Roki Sasaki-lite situation. At least he has plenty of secondaries, but I don’t think he’s going to be taken very far with that 37% usage heater.
Saves-wise, there are no questions. It’s all Jhoan Duran.
Mets
Playing Time
It hasn’t been a smooth beginning of the season for the Mets. Francisco Lindor had the late start and missed most of the spring, and now Juan Soto is on the IL. Jorge Polanco has also missed time with injuries.
The lineup seemed pretty set going Lindor - Soto - Bichette - Polanco - Robert, but the boys won’t be all back together for a little while.
There’s been confidence expressed in Carson Benge early on, but he hasn’t rewarded them with the bat, as we’ll see. How long will the leash be? That’s not really a question we have to worry about right now. The Soto IL placement added plenty more rope to that leash. Or leather, or plastic, or whatever kind of leash they were using.
Marcus Semien is not at the top of the lineup. There just isn’t a spot for him. I do think he’ll be the guy if Lindor goes down, but the lineup placement is pretty rough for his fantasy production. Francisco Alvarez has hit for a bunch of power so far with a barrel rate north of 20%. That could get him pushing up the lineup, but for now he’s buried down there in the bottom third.
PLATOON WATCH:
I suppose Carson Benge has not yet made a start against lefties. He’s given the playing time to Tyrone Taylor. I think that will continue, at least until he starts hitting the righties.
And they’ve been holding back Bretty Baty, as he doesn’t have a start in the Mets two games against LHP (as of 4/7).
Hitters
LUCK PLOT
Nothing super out-of-whack here, but you could say that Semien has deserved better than what he’s gotten.
HITTER STATS
Not the best start for the Mets, I guess. Lindor, Bichette, Semien, and Polanco all off to slow starts. Just a team 2.0% HR% AND A 7.85 SB Attempt%. So you’re probably not very happy with your Mets players thus far.
Luis Robert has been pretty good, again showing that improved plate discipline he flashed last year. More walks than strikeouts. However, the power numbers aren’t there right now with a 4% Brl% and a 60% GB%. But I think it’s good news. The guy is going to get on base a lot more than he has in the past, so the steals will come along with him getting to 15-20 homers.
Carson Benge has been rough. But he does have four steals on a super high 57% attempt. He’ll get you some steals, apparently.
And he’ll improve on that stuff eventually. But I’m not sure you really have to suffer through the slow start in redraft leagues, there are plenty of good outfielders out there.
The power bat for the Mets early on has been Francisco Alvarez with three bombs, a 25% Brl%, and a huge .471 xwOBA.
Alvarez is still just 24 years old. I think he has some 30-homer seasons in his future, and maybe it happens this year.
Pitchers:
I’ve been asked about Clay Holmes. A 1.42 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP through two starts will do that. In deeper leagues, he is fine. He will give you a decent ERA because the power sinker doesn’t give up home runs. But he’s inefficient and the WHIP isn’t going to be nearly this good for long. And I think it will end up being a bad WHIP.
Nolan McLean, I’m still trying to figure him out. I was never going to listen to the people that say he’s an immediate stud. He’s never looked that good in the numbers to me.
So far, he’s been super wild but super nasty. A 29% K%, a 10% BB%, a 41.8% Ball% (which is crazy high and bad). And look at the JA SIERA (2.90) and JA ERA (4.15) difference. You almost never see that.
JA ERA looks at SwStr% and Ball%, JA SIERA uses K% and BB%. And McLean has neither of those matching up. A 12.4% SwStr% would predict a 23% K%, a 42% Ball% would predict, I don’t even know, like a 14% BB%. But he makes pitches when he needs to, I guess, and the 19.5% K-BB% has been very good.
But he’s inefficient because of the wildness. He’s gone five and 5.1 innings in two starts. He doesn’t get whiffs on the fastballs and so far he hasn’t filled the zone, either. I imagine the command will improve, and I think the guy will have a good season. Maybe not a ton of quality starts or the best WHIP, but he’s tough to score runs on - no doubt about that. You don’t have a fantasy ace with McLean, but you also don’t have a potential loser.
Kodai Senga has been electric! The extra fastball velo is great for him. Maybe even moreso than it would be for an ordinary pitcher because his forkball is such an elite putaway pitch.
That fastball at a sick 15.7% SwStr% and the fork doing what the fork does. You never know if the velo increases will stick, but so far it’s all good for Senga. Still a little bit wild, but you can live with a 10% BB% if the K% is going to be above 30%, which it probably will be if the fastball keeps on like this.
Freddy Peralta has had some bad luck. His 4.80 ERA is bloated when you see the 2.55 JA SIERA and 3.12 JA ERA.
All good on the Peralta front, maybe even a chance to buy a bit low. I’d be gunning after Senga and Peralta, and selling high on Holmes if possible.
Saves-wise, it’s all Devin Williams.
Marlins
Playing Time
The Marlins are tinkering a bit, it would seem. But they’ve seen a ton of lefties early on. So it’s been Austin Slater leading off against the lefties and Jakob Marsee against the righties. Six of their first 11 have been against lefties, which isn’t something you’ll see very often. So that’s probably why the lineups haven’t really settled in.
Good to see Agustin Ramirez playing daily, grabbing DH reps as well like we thought he would.
Liam Hicks, despite the host start, isn’t playing against lefties.
And remember, we’re still waiting for Kyle Stowers to come back.
Hitters
LUCK PLOT
Nothing super notable here. But Jakob Marsee hasn’t been good with the bat. It’s early enough for that to change in a game or two, but yeah, you need this guy to hit some line drives if you want to get the steals production from him. The four steals he had on Tuesday made you feel good, but without those four steals, his fantasy value has been very poor.
Marsee made noise late last year, but it was never fully convincing.
The great news is that 86% Contact% (94% in zone). I have no idea how you strike out that much with such a high contact rate. There are better times ahead (.207 BABIP). No barrels yet, though, and a poor .244 xwOBA. He’s going to be like 80% reliant on steals for his fantasy value. But he’ll probably get those steals.
No dingers and just one steal for Agustin Ramirez. I wouldn’t be jumping ship on him yet. But if you’re in a 10 or 12-team redraft league with one catcher, I don’t think you need to hold on for too much longer if he’s not doing anything with the bat. The talent is great, but he’s by no means a proven fantasy asset quite yet.
Any sort of deep league or keeper stuff, obviously, you hold for a good long time.
Pitchers
Only two starts as I’m writing this from Eury Perez. He looked great in the first one, but gave up a couple of dingers, and then he totally lost the command in the second one. So, not a good start at all for him on balance. But we loved him coming into the season, and the stuff is just filthy.
I think he’ll be fine.
Sandy Alcantara is back to going right at hitters with quality strikes and racking up a ton of outs. He’s averaged more than eight innings in his three starts. He hasn’t given up a homer, he’s sallowed a .154 xBA and a .186 xwOBA. It’s been great.
The .154 xBA backs up a .159 BABIP a bit, but nobody can do either of those things for long. I don’t feel like I have to actually say he’ll be worse than this moving forward, but it will probably be a Logan Webb-esque season for him. IF you can sell him for an ace pitcher, though, I’d absolutely do that.
Jansen Junk is a dude I’ve also gotten questions about.
I think Pitcherlist and other spots have been interested in him. I haven’t taken a look yet. Here’s the profile page:
Immediately, the 4.02 JA ERA is a red flag.
It’s only 166 pitches, which is tough to judge from. But the Stuff+ is quite good. The slider is working nicely, but the fastball… it’s a 103.1 Stuff+, sure, but a 4.4% SwStr% return and a 44% Strike%. That’s not going to work. And since this dude has been around for awhile without ever being good, I don’t think I’d invest much in him. But he’s on the radar now, at least.
Max Meyer
I just don’t think he has the command to do it in the Majors, and the fastball looks like it still sucks, although he has put up a 53% Strike% on it (almost all called strikes or foul balls) on all of 36 offerings.
He’s probably forever a streamer-only type option in the fantasy game.
RELIEVERS
Two saves for Pete Fairbanks and one from Anthony Bender. Fairbanks has a huge 35% K% and 6% BB% early on, so the 6.75 ERA shouldn’t be a concern. I think he’s the dude there, and with this pretty good pitching staff they have going, I think he’ll cruise to 25 saves or so.
Nationals
Playing Time
James Wood and Daylen Lile are the only guys remaining to have started every day, but you consider CJ Abrams an everyday player for them as well. Other than that, it’s less certain. This team is going to throw a lot of flawed players into the lineup this year. They haven’t even settled on a #2 hitter yet. The 2-3 hole have been all over the place. Maybe Brady House will keep hitting and take it for good.
Hitters
LUCK PLOT
Joey Wiemer has been the guy for them with a 1.293 OPS. But you’d have to be kinda crazy to think that will continue. He does have raw power and some speed, though. It’s just that the history has been bad, even in the minors last year he couldn’t hit.
CJ Abrams was underrated in drafts and is showing you why with four dingers and four steals. He’s been one of the fantasy MVPs of the first two weeks. Should you try to sell high? Maybe. But the guy has always been good in the fantasy game (for categories leagues, at least).
James Wood is doing the things that makes James Wood so frustrating in fantasy. Four bombs already with a 24% Brl%, but a horrible 63% Contact%, 33% K%, and 55% GB%. Good news: a .200 BABIP. Bad news: 0% Air Pull%. He’s a unique player, but I think the HR + SB numbers will be quite good when the season wraps up.
Luis Garcia is not playing against lefties, but he’s been a good hitter so far.
Brady House has his K% up to 29% with a 69% Contact% (75.5% in zone). The max EV of 111 and the EV90 of 106 shows you his raw power, but I think it’ll be more bad than good for House. A couple of homers this early in the season bolsters the numbers, and it’s really tough to hit a bunch of homers with that kind of strikeout rate. I’d sell the House.
Pitchers
The only guy of interest in the rotation is Cade Cavalli, he’s mostly avoided damage but the underlying stuff is gross.
No homers allowed with a 50% GB% and a .294 SLG, but the .325 xwOBA is around the league average and he hasn’t been getting strikeouts, and the ball rate is way too high. Maybe he’ll get back some of that SwStr% stuff we saw late last year, but I can’t recommend starting the guy at this point.
Clayton Beeter has the lone save, but he’s crazy wild. I think I’d just leave it alone. The Nats aren’t going to win a ton of games, and Beeter just doesn’t seem to be good enough to really claim a standard closer role.
Alright that was a division dive! It was way better in quality of content than the podcast would have been. But yeah, it took a lot longer.
Next week we’ll review the two CENTRAL divisions in some form or fashion.