Division Dive - NL West (ARI, SF, COL)
Finishing up the NL West division dive
Part One:
I’m firmly behind schedule now, I might have to shift this back to a weekly or bi-weekly podcast instead of writing them out like I’ve been wanting to. Writing takes quite a bit of time, and time has been hard to come by between the daily note & slate previews we’re putting out daily.
But let’s finish the NL West up like we started it.
Diamondbacks
Lineup Grid - Last Weeks
All stats current as of the games completed on Saturday, April 25
Top three is set with Marte, Carroll, and Perdomo
They’re liking cleaning things up with Gabriel Moreno when he’s in the lineup at catcher
After that, it’s a lot of Nolan Arenado between the 5-6 holes, and then a mix and match of guys.
Platoon Watch
Alek Thomas is a defensive tool for them, but they haven’t felt the defense to be worth it against lefties
Adrian Del Castillo is only playing against righties, and the hits haven’t piled up
Jose Fernandez I guess isn’t in a platoon with 12 of 20 starts against righties, but he’s not an every day guy, mostly getting his work against lefties
Hitting
LUCK PLOT
GERALDO PERDOMO
That power surge from last year was lost during the winter. Just a 2.7% Brl% with a 53% GB% this year, and the EVs are down. The six steals aren’t leading your team, but a 35% attmept rate tells you they’re coming.
NOLAN ARENADO
Barrel rate is up (3.9% → 7%), but the xwOBA is the same (.293), so I wouldn’t bank on Arenado getting back to being a 20+ homer guy.
The plate discipline is nice, and there are RBI opportunities hitting where he’s been hitting, but we don’t have anything to really like from the veteran.
ILDELMARO VARGAS
Last year:
This year:
He’s been fantastic this year, but it’s probably mostly variance/luck driven. Even xBA and xwOBA can be luck driven.
The .350 BABIP will come down, the 42% Sweet Spot% will as well. He doesn’t have much bat speed and hasn’t attempted a steal yet, so you’re not likely to get much of anything moving forward. Maybe he can hit .275 or so the rest of the way, but it will be mostly empty batting average.
ADRIAN DEL CASTILLO
The skills popped when he was coming up through the minors. The Diamondbacks AAA team will do that. They play in one of the most hitter friendly parks and leagues in pro ball.
ADC in MiLB: .834 OPS, 23% K%, 12% BB%, 27 PA/HR
ADC in MLB: .772 OPS, 33% K%, 6% BB%, 28.7 PA/HR
He’ll hit a homer every once in awhile, but it’s not elite bat speed or anything like that, and the strikeout rate is very high.
Pitchers
It’s messy.
RYNE NELSON
He was the supposed ace coming into the year, but it’s been rough sledding for him this year.
Hitters are super locked onto his fastball. That fastball, at 61% usage, has to be elite to give him any chance of success, and it’s not been that. Even the Stuff+ is down 1.5 points. I think you’re safe leaving Nelson on waivers.
ZAC GALLEN
A very concerning 14% K% and an 8.1% SwStr%. He was never a mid-20s K% guy, and yet he had some really nice seasons. But the command and whatever he had going on in 2022-2024 aren’t there anymore, apparently. You could even say he’s been a touch lucky with an 8% HR/FB.
MIKE SOROKA
The SwStr% is bouncing up and down. And lefties continue to hit him very hard (.425 xwOBA). Some people bought in after those 23 strikeouts in his first three outings, but I don’t think he’s good. There was a reason he bagged just a one-year deal. He doesn’t seem to have the tools in the arsenal needed to sit big league lineups down consistently.
Bullpen
It’s a pretty bad bullpen as well. But that’s been good for Paul Sewald who has played the veteran card and converted nine saves so far. That’s a lot different than last year when they split saves between 17 different guys (an MLB record).
And Sewald has a strong 23% K-BB% out of the gate, so I guess it’s his job. Somehow, Sewald has proved to be one of the more valuable early-season pickups in fantasy leagues so far.
Giants
Very little consistency to these lineups of late. They only have, I think, one truly good MLB hitter in Devers, and they’ve been struggling overall this year with a 12-15 record.