I’m up and at it early. I will be working at the Notre Dame game today again once again trying to raise some money for our Christian school. It was a mix of fun and not fun the first time, but I’d say it was mostly something I would have been happy to never do again. But they need me, so we’re doing it again. But that means I won’t tending the projections and tweaking my DFS lineup as lineups get announced. So we’ll have to do our best here this morning in a shorter time.
Pitcher Projections
We have some disparity on this one.
George Kirby leads the pack. He has the best matchup. I think you would have to say the Tigers’ lineup is the worst one remaining. Kirby did not have his best season of work, but he finished very strong.
He ended up with a 26% K% and a 5.5% BB%. That’s a 20%+ K-BB%, and it got him the game one nod for the M’s. He had a 2.82 JA ERA at home and did have better results there. He took the four-seamer to a new level this year.
A 19.1% SwStr% on that four-seamer is insane. He’s one of the most uniquely talented pitchers in the league, and he’ll come into this one fully rested and ready to go. He’s the top play on the board.
Next on the projections is Freddy Peralta. The Cubs aren’t a super intimidating lineup at this point. Kyle Tucker did not have an extra base hit in the Wild Card series. He hasn’t homered since September 2nd, but he did miss most of September on the IL. I haven’t given Peralta the respect he deserves. He put up a 2.70 ERA this year on a 28% K%.
His walk rate is still high, and the ball rate of 38.4% is a concern. He’s made it work pretty darn well this year, but he has his share of bad games due to the lack of command and his fly-ball-heavy ways.
We will also get to see Shohei Ohtani on the mound today. Or at least those of you who aren’t hucking beers and hot dogs to Notre Dame fans will. Man this is a bad day to have to be doing actual work out in the real world!
The Dodgers seem to have handled this Ohtani pitching situation perfectly.
He worked up to 91 pitches in that final start. His final season numbers are insane.
The 1.90 JA ERA is second-best in baseball if you limit to just a dozen starts minimum:
I’d say it’s less likely that he rips off 90+ pitches, at least compared to the other top guys. Ohtani is in there as a hitter, and is obviously hugely important to this team in every single game. So any kind of long inning or struggles with command might push them to just want to get him back to the bench for some rest before his next AB. Pitch-for-pitch, he’s the best pitcher on the slate today.
The model hasn’t been fully in love with Cristopher Sanchez too often this year. That’s mostly because of a lower 26% K%. But a 5.5% BB% and a 59% GB% make him one of the elite run-preventers.
I think the Phillies will want to grab 5+ innings from him. They don’t have the greatest depth in the bullpen behind him or in the rotation after him as they go into this five-game series. He’s the guy. The matchup with LA is the toughest one on the board. And that drops the projection down. He saw them a couple of weeks ago and gave up four earned runs in seven innings in LA. This is a home start, and the atmosphere will be insane. That’s the series to watch, and your boy is hoping for a Phillies World Series this year. I think Sanchez is a solid play, but he’s not going to make the optimal projected DFS stuff today.
Kevin Gausman is next.