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I only have 20-30 minutes to write this morning. But the divisional series is upon us. Today, it looks like this:
White Sox vs. Guardians
They let Hagen Smith throw 38 pitches in game one in the Wild Card series. He delivered three innings, and now he’ll take the ball again here on three days’ rest. It’s 2-3 innings from Smith, so not enough for any real DFS consideration, even against the worst lineup remaining in the playoffs.
You’ll probably see a similar approach to that game one. They ended up getting 5.1 innings from their two young studs - Smith along with Grant Taylor.
You’ll see lots of those two as long as the White Sox are still playing ball this October.
Parker Messick makes his postseason debut. The White Sox this year slugged a little more against lefties, but struck out a touch more. Overall, though, the splits are about even.
Here are the player stats against lefties:
It’s a really good mix they’ve developed. Some contact guys, some lefty mashers, and still a couple of guys who can hit the bomb even while striking out a lot.
I think the White Sox have a real shot in this series, the Guardians are an unimpressive club and the White Sox have the advantage of being “hot”. I’m not sure “hot” is real or matters at all, but it’s possible that it does. The White Sox coasted through the Astros while the Guardians had to sit around for five days.
This Hagen Smith + Grant Taylor setup might be their best approach. I’m taking the White Sox to find a way to win this one.
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DFS Plays: Parker Messick $8,500, Guardians cheap plays (Kwan $3300, Fry $2500, Adell $3400)
The Dodgers open up as a -212 favorite. The Braves are being given about a one-third chance to win the series. Their lineup is good enough, but the pitching is a real problem. They won’t have Chris Sale available tonight. I expect them to use him like crazy, but not tonight in game one of a five-game set.
The AJ Smith-Shawver listing here is a guess. It’s a bullpen game for the Braves. They’ll be able to mix and match, but it’s a tough task against the Dodgers with Skubal on the hill.
DFS Plays: Skubal $10,000, Dodgers bats
Yankees vs. Rays
Cole did not finish the year super well. He had a 22% K% in September, but his command was still great with a 3% BB%. The Rays have seen a lot of him, and this just is not prime Cole who is going to go out there and shove with 13 strikeouts anymore.
He can pitch very well; it’s a good park to be in, and the Rays offense doesn’t have much thump outside of Junior Caminero. But I think Cole is pretty over-rated due to the name value and the bigness of the postseason.
Drew Rasmussen has his innings in the 150s for the first time, but he finished the year just fine and was so good all year. He’s the only guy I think you’ll see throwing 5+ innings this postseason, so he’s very much in play for DFS tonight. I don’t believe this will be a super quick hook unless things go very wrong.
DFS Plays: Rasmussen $8800, Cole $8100, Rays bats
Padres vs. Brewers
Here it comes! Jacob Misiorowski at $11,100 to open the playoffs after his Cy Young season. It’s at home; it will be electric.
And Robbie Ray opens the NLDS for the Padres. Ray got some decent results in the box score this year, which is all that would matter tonight, but his underlying stuff bothered me all year.
It’s a real bad spot for him. The 7% K-BB% this year pitching in Milwaukee against a very patient offense.
DFS Plays: Misiorowski, Brewers bats